Bankruptcy Cases In Singapore At 5-Year Low Amid Covid-19 Relief Measures

SINGAPORE – Even as the Covid-19 pandemic ravages the economy, the number of people who were made bankrupt last year sank to the lowest in five years.

Bankruptcy orders tumbled more than 40 per cent to 965 from 1,645 in 2019. Figures from the Law Ministry’s Insolvency Office website showed more than 1,600 bankruptcy orders were made annually between 2016 and 2018.

Experts said the drop in numbers could be due to the Covid-19 (Temporary Measures) Act and government support schemes which provided temporary relief for financially distressed individuals.

Lawyer Chia Boon Teck of Chia Wong Chambers said: “Pre-Covid-19, the law allows a debtor 21 days to pay up on a statutory demand. However, the Covid-19 (Temporary Measures) Act 2020 extends the 21 days to six months. This in effect puts a five-month moratorium on outstanding debts.”

The Covid-19 law also raised the minimal debt from $15,000 to $60,000 so debtors owing less than $60,000 are not exposed to threats of bankruptcy, he added.

Last year, bankruptcy applications fell to 2,833 from 3,473 in 2019, reversing an upward trend since 2014.”The twin measures probably account for the drastic drop in bankruptcy applications,” said Mr Chia.

Maybank Kim Eng senior economist Chua Hak Bin said bankruptcies could have been far worse if not for the fiscal support and relief measures that also saw “the freezing of creditors’ rights to commence legal action for default until late 2020”.

Figures from the Insolvency Office website also showed corporate insolvency numbers fell, with 206 applications filed for winding up between January and November last year, down from 368 in the same period in 2019.

Said Dr Chua: “We expect the number of bankruptcies to increase in 2021 as the fiscal support and temporary relief measures are wound down.”

He added that such measures can help only firms suffering from a temporary liquidity crunch, “but cannot save firms which are no longer viable in this new normal”.

Among the high-profile bankruptcy proceedings last year was a bankruptcy bid filed against local hardware chain Home-Fix’s founder Low Cheong Kee and his younger brother by paint manufacturer Nippon Paint (Singapore) over a debt of $500,000.

Political party Peoples Voice’s leader Lim Tean also faced bankruptcy claims totalling about $1.45 million.

Mr Nelson Loh, who was behind an audacious bid to buy English Premier League football club Newcastle United last year, was adjudged a bankrupt by the Singapore High Court in December. He had failed to pay an outstanding debt of over $14 million to DBS Bank.

His cousin Terence Loh is also facing bankruptcy proceedings filed by Maybank over a $3 million debt.

George (not his real name), a 50-year-old bankrupt, said: “The government relief measures only helped to delay the proceedings. Financially distressed individuals would still be struggling to raise enough money to pay their debts amid the pandemic.”

He said he filed for bankruptcy as he was unable to pay his debts of over $100,000 to various banks.

“Some people may think I had chosen the easy way out, but it’s not. It was a difficult decision to make. Many companies will not hire me because I am a bankrupt. And I also can’t manage a business or act as director of a company.”

As at Dec 31, there were 10,269 undischarged bankrupts.

A bankrupt may try to have his bankruptcy status annulled after paying off all outstanding debts. He can also apply to the High Court to grant him a discharge or the court-assigned administrator may discharge him after at least three years of good conduct, provided his debts do not exceed $500,000 and his creditors do not object.

By: Joyce Lim Senior Correspondent

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Bankruptcies filed in Singapore have skyrocketed to more than 460 in March. Latest official figures show that is the highest in more than 15 years. Lawyers CNA spoke to said they have also seen more enquiries about loan obligations. Subscribe to our channel here: https://cna.asia/youtubesub Subscribe to our news service on Telegram: https://cna.asia/telegram Follow us: CNA: https://cna.asia CNA Lifestyle: http://www.cnalifestyle.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/channelnewsasia Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/channelnews… Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/channelnewsasia

Top Dividend Stocks for January 2021

Dividend stocks are companies that pay out a portion of their earnings to a class of shareholders on a regular basis. These companies usually are well established, with stable earnings and a long track record of distributing some of those earnings back to shareholders. These distributions are known as dividends, and may be paid out in the form of cash or as additional stock. Most dividends are paid out on a quarterly basis, but some are paid out monthly, annually, or even once in the form of a special dividend. While dividend stocks are known for the regularity of their dividend payments, in difficult economic times even those dividends may be cut in order to preserve cash.

One useful measure for investors to gauge the sustainability of a company’s dividend payments is the dividend payout ratio. The ratio is a measure of total dividends divided by net income, which tells investors how much of the company’s net income is being returned to shareholders in the form of dividends versus how much the company is retaining to invest in further growth. If the ratio exceeds 100% or is negative (meaning net income is negative), this indicates the company may be borrowing to pay dividends. In these two cases, the dividends are at a relatively greater risk of being cut.

Below, we look at the top 5 dividend stocks in the Russell 1000 by forward dividend yield, excluding companies with payout ratios that are either negative or in excess of 100%. Each of the dividend stocks listed below significantly underperformed the Russell 1000’s total return over the past 12 months of 19.7%, as of December 21, 2020.1 All data below is as of December 22, 2020.

Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN)

  • Forward Dividend Yield: 10.08%
  • Payout Ratio: 86.56%
  • Price: $9.92
  • Market Cap: $10.9 billion
  • 1-Year Total Return: -17.7%1

Lumen Technologies, formerly known as CenturyLink, is an integrated communications company that offers services including local and long-distance voice, broadband, Ethernet, colocation, hosting, data integration, video, network, information technology, and more.

Brookfield Property REIT Inc. (BPYU)

  • Forward Dividend Yield: 8.86%
  • Payout Ratio: 63.63%
  • Price: $15.01
  • Market Cap: $587.3 million
  • 1-Year Total Return: -10.0%1

Brookfield Property is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, develops, builds, manages, and leases various commercial properties. Among the company’s portfolio of properties are restaurants, malls, entertainment facilities, and parking areas. On November 6, the board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3325 per share on its Class A Stock payable on December 31, 2020, and a quarterly dividend on the 6.375% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock of $0.39844 per share payable on January 1, 2021.2

New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB)

  • Forward Dividend Yield: 6.65%
  • Payout Ratio: 82.59%
  • Price: $10.22
  • Market Cap: $4.7 billion
  • 1-Year Total Return: -8.3%1

New York Community Bancorp is a holding company with multiple banking subsidiaries, including Queens County Savings Bank, Roosevelt Savings Bank, Atlantic Bank, and others. Through these subsidiaries, New York Community Bancorp offers a full range of banking products and services to businesses and consumers. The company primarily serves customers in the New York City metropolitan area.

Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)

  • Forward Dividend Yield: 6.50%
  • Payout Ratio: 43.84%
  • Price: $11.69
  • Market Cap: $2.0 billion
  • 1-Year Total Return: -20.2%1

Brandywine Realty Trust is a REIT that owns, manages, leases, acquires, and develops urban, downtown, and suburban office properties primarily on the East Coast and in Texas. Its services include asset management, development and construction, investment, marketing and leasing, and property management. On December 8, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.19 per common share and OP Unit payable on January 20, 2021. The quarterly dividend is equivalent to an annual rate of $0.76 per share.3 

TFS Financial Corp. (TFSL)

  • Forward Dividend Yield: 6.41%
  • Payout Ratio: 66.57%
  • Price: $17.47
  • Market Cap: $4.9 billion
  • 1-Year Total Return: -6.8%1

TFS Financial is a holding company engaged in retail consumer banking, mortgage lending, and similar services through its subsidiaries. The company’s businesses include originating and servicing residential real estate mortgage loans and attracting retail deposits. Its main business is retail consumer banking.

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. While we believe the information provided herein is reliable, we do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The views and strategies described on our content may not be suitable for all investors.

Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, all comments, opinions, and analyses contained within our content are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment, or strategy.

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How Determining the Dividend Rate Pays off for Investors The dividend is the percentage of a security’s price paid out as dividend income to investors. more

Special Dividend A special dividend is a non-recurring distribution of company assets, usually in the form of cash, to shareholders. more

Dividend Yield Definition The dividend yield is a financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its stock price. more

Dividend Payout Ratio Definition The dividend payout ratio is the measure of dividends paid out to shareholders relative to the company’s net income. more

Dividend Clientele Dividend clientele refers to a group of shareholders that have a common preference for a company’s dividend policy. more

Dividend Definition A dividend is the distribution of some of a company’s earnings to a class of its shareholders, as determined by the company’s board of directors. more

Credit Suisse Bullish On Stocks In 2021 Because It’s Bullish On 2022

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 23: People walk along Broadway as they pass the Wall Street Charging Bull statue on July 23, 2020 in New York City. On Wednesday July 22, the market had its best day in 6 weeks. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub introduced his 2021 price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) of 4,050, implying 12.2% upside from Tuesday’s closing levels. Underpinning this upbeat call is his assumption that two years from now, the post-virus economic recovery will have already hit a peak.

“Our 2021 forecasts are designed to answer a simple question: what will the future (2022) look like in the future (end of 2021),” Golub said in a new note Wednesday. “From this perspective, we are forced to de-emphasize the near-term, focusing instead on the return to a more normal world.”

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“As we look toward 2022, the virus will be a fading memory, the economy robust, but decelerating, the yield curve steeper and volatility lower, and the rotation into cyclicals largely behind us,” he added.

Based on Golub’s analysis, economic activity as measured by GDP growth will renormalize at levels slightly above trend, or with quarterly annualized growth rates just over 3%, starting in the second half of 2021.

And the labor market — which as of October was still 10 million payrolls short of pre-pandemic levels — will likely reach “full employment” by the second half of 2022, Golub added.

Since the stock market discounts future events, each of these prospects for further improvement down the line should translate into a higher S&P 500 as investors price in these events.

Analysts have already begun to account for an anticipated improvement in corporate profits, as S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have on aggregate sharply topped consensus expectations so far for each of second and third quarter results this year.

“We expect 2020 estimates to rise, 2021 to remain stable and 2022 to moderate,” Golub said.

His 2021 S&P 500 price target of 4,050 is based on earnings per share of $168 next year, for an improvement of 20% over the expected aggregate EPS this year. He expects EPS will then rise to $190 in 2022.

Sector leadership

On a sector basis, Golub rates technology stocks as Overweight for 2021, given their “faster sales growth, superior margins, robust FCF [free cash flow], and low leverage. He also rated financials, one of the laggard sectors so far for the year-to-date, as Overweight, given their propensity to lead during recoveries.

“Consistent with a typical recovery, banks should benefit from improving credit conditions, increasing transaction volumes, and a steepening yield curve,” Golub said. “The group is adequately reserved, likely. resulting in a greater return of capital.”

Golub designated cyclicals with a Neutral rating for next year, saying he is “positively inclined toward economically-sensitive groups and believe[s] their momentum should persist over the near-term.” But he added that he thinks the largest quarter-over-quarter improvements in economic activity have already come and gone, leaving more tepid further upside potential for stocks with profits closely tethered to economic growth.

He rated non-cylicals like consumer staples as underweight, while giving health care specifically an Overweight rating.

“Non-cylicals should lag in an improving economy as falling volatility supports higher P/Es (price-earnings multiples) for riskier assets, and rising rates make their high dividend yields less appealing,” he said. “The one exception is health care, which should outperform given a more robust earnings trend.”

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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Stock Market Sell-Off: Dow Falls Over 600 Points As Tech Shares Plunge Again

The market moved sharply lower on Tuesday—and the Nasdaq hit correction territory—as the widespread sell-off in tech stocks continued, following the sector’s worst drop since March last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.3%, over 600 points, on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 4.1%.

The Nasdaq officially entered correction territory, falling 10% in just the last three days of trading.

The tech sell-off continued on Tuesday, dragging the market lower as investors once again rotated out of hot Nasdaq stocks: Shares of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet fell more than 3%, while Apple dropped over 6%.

Semiconductor and chip stocks—including Nvidia, Micron and Advanced Micro Devices—plunged after the U.S. Department of Defense over the weekend floated the idea of blacklisting China’s largest chipmaker, SMIC.

Shares of Tesla tanked 21%—the stock’s largest one-day drop in history—after the S&P Dow Jones Indices decided not to add it to the S&P 500 index last Friday, instead choosing Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent.

Electric truck maker and Tesla rival Nikola, meanwhile, surged by up to 53% on Tuesday after General Motors announced an 11% stake—worth $2 billion—in the company.

SoftBank’s stock also fell 7% after it was identified that the investment juggernaut had bought billions of dollars in call options in Big Tech names including Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix, potentially driving up valuations.

Crucial quote

With tech stocks leading the market higher in recent months, the ongoing sell-off is just a correction, says Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a recent note. “The sector is expensive, but not in a bubble,” he said, adding that a correction “need not signal the end of the rally.” While the U.S. tech sector has climbed to surging valuations, they are still “well below levels seen at the height of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s levels, when the index forward P/E rose above 70x.”

Key background

Tuesday’s losses follow a big reversal in major tech stocks last week. On Friday, stocks snapped a five-week winning streak, with the tech sector suffering its worst week since March 20. The Dow plunged by up to 600 points before paring back losses late in the afternoon. That followed a sharp sell-off on Wall Street on Thursday: The market posted its worst day since June as stocks retreated from record highs and tech shares plunged.

The Dow slid 2.8%—more than 800 points, while the S&P fell 3.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 5%. Shares of Big Tech companies, which have been instrumental in leading the market’s rebound over the past few months, dragged the market lower on Thursday and Friday. Before last week’s sell-off, stocks had made a strong start to September, despite it being a historically bad month for markets.

Further reading

Stock Market Sell-Off: Dow Falls 150 Points Despite Late Rally (Forbes)

Stock Market Sell-Off: Dow Plunges 800 Points, S&P 500 Falls 3.5% (Forbes)

JPMorgan Investigating Employees For Misuse Of Coronavirus Stimulus Funds (Forbes)

Virgin Galactic Stock Could Surge By More Than 50% This Year, Says UBS (Forbes) Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn

Sergei Klebnikov

Sergei Klebnikov

I am a New York—based reporter for Forbes covering breaking news, with a focus on financial topics. Previously, I wrote about investing for Money Magazine and was an intern at Forbes in 2015 and 2016. I graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2018, majoring in International Relations and Modern History. Follow me on Twitter @skleb1234 or email me at sklebnikov@forbes.com

Guide To Dividend Funds For Retirees: 36 Best Buys

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You could live off dividends. Although stocks on average yield only 1.7%, it is quite feasible to assemble a collection of blue chips that are paying out 3% of their purchase price. That means a $1 million pot could produce $2,500 of monthly income, with reasonable prospects for seeing that income keep up with inflation over the next several decades.

You could do this yourself, buying a lot of dividend-rich stocks on your own. Or you could have the work done for you by owning a fund. This guide will steer you to 36 excellent choices—8 open-end funds and 28 exchange-traded ones—that yield 3% or better.

These funds are cost-efficient. The open-end (that is, traditional mutual) funds on this list are no-loads running up expenses no higher than 0.25% of assets annually. The ETFs cost no more than 0.15% annually.

Example: the iShares Core High Dividend ETF, whose $5.6 billion is invested in AT&T T +0.9%, Exxon Mobil XOM -0.6% and 73 other stocks. Expenses are a very reasonable 0.08%, or $8 annually per $10,000 invested.

Pay attention to expense ratios. If you are not careful, you can send a lot of money down a drainhole. This principle will be illustrated below.

Here are the winning funds:

By historical standards, a 3% yield from stocks isn’t terrific; the average payout rate over the past century is considerably higher. But you take what you can get. For a retiree aiming to live off a portfolio without eating it away, blue chips are a lot more plausible than bonds these days. U.S. Treasuries due in 2040 yield only 1%, and they are guaranteed to fail at keeping up with the cost of living.

changelly3

Stocks, unlike those Treasuries, are risky. They periodically crash. You can perhaps withstand that uncertainty. You could put some of your money in low-yielding bonds and plan on selling bonds, not stocks, if and when you need extra spending money during a bear market.

There’s more to reflect on than the risk. Here are five other things to think about before making a big commitment to high-dividend stocks as a source of retirement income.

1. You’re making a trade-off. Growth and yield are two different ways to get a total return. More of one means less of the other.

You can choose the mix. Young savers might prefer growth, owning companies like Netflix NFLX 0.0% and Amazon AMZN -0.7%, which pay out nothing but are fast-growing. Retirees might prefer AT&T and Exxon, which pay rich dividends but are on a plateau.

The average stock falls between these extremes. The Vanguard Total Stock Market index fund yields 1.7% and owns companies that collectively grow at a moderate pace, faster than Exxon but slower than Amazon.

It is delusional to think that you can have high yields without sacrificing growth. If stocks yielding 3% had as much growth as the average stock, then their total return would be 1.3% higher than the total return on the market. And if that were true, we could all become arbitrage billionaires by owning the high yielders while shorting the market. This is not going to happen.

Accept the reality. To get a high yield, you have to give something up.

2. Dividends aren’t the only way to draw income. If you need to spend 3% of your portfolio every year, you are not compelled to buy stocks like AT&T. There’s a second method to obtaining cash. You could invest in stocks with lower dividends and sell some shares periodically.

You could, for example, buy that Vanguard fund covering the whole market (its ticker is VTI), pocket the 1.7% in dividends, and then supplement the income with the sale every year of 1.3% of your fund shares.

Go with the high-dividend funds if you prefer. There is something appealing in that arrangement to people who were trained by the grandparents to never “dip into capital.”

The truth, though, is that the sustainability of your capital is not determined by its current yield, or by the number of shares you sell off. It is instead determined by your total return. Don’t assume that your capital will last any longer with a high-dividend fund than it would with VTI.

3. You can wind up with a lopsided portfolio. Aim for the very highest yields and you’ll probably have an overdose of oil companies, real estate investment trusts and European stocks. These might do very well for the next decade, but they might do horribly. Pay attention to diversification. In selecting from the high-yield list, don’t overdo the sector and global funds.

4. There will be cuts. Derivatives speculators in Chicago are betting that the dividend on the S&P 500 index will fall from $58 in 2019 to $56 in 2020 and $51 in 2021 before beginning a slow recovery. Allow for this. The yields you see in the table sare for a trailing 12-month interval. They somewhat overstate what you’re likely to collect in the near future.

Cuts are especially likely among the energy funds with double-digit yields.

5. Costs matter. The funds on our Best Buy list are cost-efficient. A lot of what brokers sell is not.

Paying more costs than you have to can do serious damage. An incremental percentage point of cost compounds, over 30 years, to a 26% slice out of a static account (one without contributions or withdrawals).

Some investors are incapable of conceptualizing this. To illustrate, I will cite one curious fund that is much sought after by yield seekers: Gabelli Equity Trust.

This closed-end uses borrowed money to buy more stocks, which means that it should have outsized returns in bull markets and very bad results in bear markets. How has it done? Not well. Despite the leverage, it hasn’t kept up with the bull market over the past decade.

Given that disappointment and the fund’s savage 1.3% expense ratio, you’d expect that shares would trade at a hefty discount to the portfolio value. Instead, they trade at a 3% premium.

What is the appeal of this fund? It pays an enormous dividend, equal to 12.6% of the portfolio annually. Evidently the buyers haven’t been informed about the fund’s lagging total return. They are gullible enough to think that it’s easier to retire on a fund with a high payout.

It’s okay to seek dividends. It isn’t okay to be naive.

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I aim to help you save on taxes and money management costs. I graduated from Harvard in 1973, have been a journalist for 45 years, and was editor of Forbes magazine from 1999 to 2010. Tax law is a frequent subject in my articles. I have been an Enrolled Agent since 1979. Email me at williambaldwinfinance — at — gmail — dot — com.

Source: https://www.forbes.com

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Asia Stocks Up As China PMI, U.S. Data Cheer Markets Worried Over Coronavirus Surge

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MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.9%, while U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis ESc1, advanced 0.23%.Sentiment in the region, which got a boost from overnight gains on Wall Street thanks to strong housing data, got a further lift from a survey in China showing a quickening in activity in its vast factory sector.

The stock market in Australia , which has crucial economic links with China, rose 1.59%, while shares in China .CSI300 gained 0.72%. Hong Kong stocks .HSI jumped 1.18%, undeterred by the Chinese parliament’s passage of a security law that will increase Beijing’s control over the former British colony.

The Nikkei .N225 rose 2%, shrugging off a larger-than-expected decline in Japanese industrial production. Overall, however, Asian shares are still on course for a 7% decline over the first half of this year, underscoring the severity of the pandemic-sparked losses and the challenges facing investors as global infections continue to rise in a blow to hopes of a quick recovery.

“Overnight moves in markets were not large but one does get the distinct impression that markets have got it both ways – with equities rallying on rebounding data and bonds rallying on dismal COVID-19 news,” said ANZ Research analyst Rahul Khare.

Indeed, for the second quarter Asia ex-Japan shares were on course for a 17.8% gain, which would be the biggest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2009. Stocks appear to have received an added boost on Tuesday as some investors adjusted positions on the last trading day of the quarter. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.47% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 1.2%.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released Tuesday showed factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy grew for a fourth straight month in June. China’s services sector PMI also expanded at a faster pace compared to the previous month. A recent resurgence in coronavirus infections had led some investors to question the strength of a rebound in global economic activity.

The swing in sentiment between hopes and fears has kept markets on edge. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR was little changed at 0.6348% in Asia as traders braced for U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Thursday, which is forecast to show an improving labour market.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday said the outlook for the world’s biggest economy is “extraordinarily uncertain” and signalled more monetary stimulus may be necessary, which could limit gain in yields. Confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide rose past 10 million and deaths surpassed 500,000 on over the weekend.

The bulk of new cases were reported in the United States and Latin America, stoking fears that the outbreak could stall economic recoveries just as lockdowns begin to ease. In currency markets, the dollar held onto gains against the yen JPY= and the Swiss franc CHF= as the recent increase in coronavirus infections supported safe-haven demand for the greenback. [FRX/]

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS rose slightly to 7.0685 against the dollar. U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.48% to $39.51 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 slipped 0.31% to $41.58 per barrel, weighed by concerns about oversupply after Libya cited progress in resuming oil exports. [O/R] Additional reporting by Stanley White in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam

 

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.47% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 1.2%. China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released Tuesday showed factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy grew for a fourth straight month in June. China’s services sector PMI also expanded at a faster pace compared to the previous month.

A recent resurgence in coronavirus infections had led some investors to question the strength of a rebound in global economic activity. The swing in sentiment between hopes and fears has kept markets on edge.The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR was little changed at 0.6348% in Asia as traders braced for U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Thursday, which is forecast to show an improving labour market.

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday said the outlook for the world’s biggest economy is “extraordinarily uncertain” and signalled more monetary stimulus may be necessary, which could limit gain in yields.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide rose past 10 million and deaths surpassed 500,000 on over the weekend. The bulk of new cases were reported in the United States and Latin America, stoking fears that the outbreak could stall economic recoveries just as lockdowns begin to ease. In currency markets, the dollar held onto gains against the yen JPY= and the Swiss franc CHF= as the recent increase in coronavirus infections supported safe-haven demand for the greenback. [FRX/]

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS rose slightly to 7.0685 against the dollar.U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.48% to $39.51 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 slipped 0.31% to $41.58 per barrel, weighed by concerns about oversupply after Libya cited progress in resuming oil exports. [O/R]

U.S. crude fell 0.48% to $39.51 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped 0.31% to $41.58 per barrel, weighed by concerns about oversupply after Libya cited progress in resuming oil exports. [O/R]

By Stanley White, Imani Moise

Mar.12 — Dan Fineman, co-head of APAC equity strategy at Credit Suisse, discusses the fall in Asian markets and what it will take to stop the rout. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: China Open.”

 

U.K. Economy Plunges 20.4% As Global Stocks Waver Over Fears Of Second Wave

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Latest statistics from the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics show the true cost of a full month of lockdown measures which led to the closure of all non-essential businesses.

KEY FACTS

“April’s fall in GDP is the biggest the U.K. has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost ten times larger than the steepest pre-Covid-19 fall. In April the economy was around 25% smaller than in February,” said Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics.

The statistics were worse than expected than economists surveyed by Reuters who predicted a 18.4% drop.

The OECD had warned that the U.K. was the developed economy likely to suffer the worst economic impact from the pandemic with the Paris-based think tank forecasting a 11.5% drop in GDP over 2020.

Italy, which was the first country in Europe to be impacted by the pandemic, was expected to see a 11.3% drop in national income, while the United States would see a 7.3% fall over the year.

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The slump in national income during the pandemic outpaced even France, Spain and Italy, which had imposed far stricter lockdown measures. U.K. for the first quarter of 2020 plunged 10.4%, ahead of France’s 5.8% drop and Italy’s 4.7% retraction.

European stocks fell on the news of the bleak economic data from U.K., and the worst day on Wall Street since March with the S&P 500 closing 5.9% lower on Thursday. London’s FTSE 100 was down 1.15%, the Europe-wide STOXX Europe 600 index fell 4.10% while Japan’s Topix index closed down 1.15%.

Key Background

Today’s economic data will make bleak reading for Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is facing mounting criticism for his handling of the pandemic even from inside his own government. The U.K. has now logged 41,128 deaths from the coronavirus, the highest toll in Europe and second in the world behind the U.S., while facing an immense economic hangover from placing its economy on life support. Economic data for June is likely to show growth springing back as stores are allowed to reopen on June 15, but a key question will be how many job losses will be made permanent, and how more money will the British government and the Bank of England need to pump into lifelines to businesses and workers.

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I joined Forbes as the European News Editor and will be working with the London newsroom to define our coverage of emerging businesses and leaders across the UK and Europe. Prior to joining Forbes, I worked for the news agency Storyful as its Asia Editor working from its Hong Kong bureau, and as a Senior Editor in London, where I reported on breaking news stories from around the world, with a special focus on how misinformation and disinformation spreads on social media platforms. I started my career in London as a financial journalist with Citywire and my work has appeared in the BBC, Sunday Times, and many more UK publications. Email me story ideas, or tips, to iain.martin@forbes.com, or Twitter @_iainmartin.

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U.K. GDP shrank by 2.0% in Q1, largely because of the coronavirus pandemic. George Buckley of Nomura says there is more bad data to come – but the economy could bounce back next year.

Early Shopify Investor Bessemer Turned A $5 Million Bet Into $500 Million. It Could Have Been $22 Billion Today

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Shopify’s soaring stock has one venture capital firm looking at a $22 billion windfall that never was.

Thanks to skyrocketing demand for its online business-building tools, the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant has brought a windfall to its public market investors. Its value peaked at $84 billion last week, briefly making it the most valuable company in Canada, and pushing the net worth of its 39-year-old CEO Tobias Lutke north of $6 billion.

But for one of its earliest investors, San Francisco-based Bessemer Venture Partners, the hype around the company is bittersweet. The firm first invested $5.5 million in the company’s initial funding round, and after additional investments built a 26% stake worth $500 million when it went public in 2015. Though as is the typical modus operandi of venture capital firms — hold onto investments while the company scales and cash out following an IPO — Bessemer had redistributed all its shares back to its partners by the end of 2018, when the company was worth $15 billion.

Today Bessemer’s stake would currently be worth close to $22 billion, the firm says. In the past month, Shopify’s share price has doubled after it generated $470 million in revenue in the first quarter, as demand for its online tools has skyrocketed from brick-and-mortar retailers who have been forced online by the COVID-19 pandemic. Founded in 2006, it now has more than 1 million businesses using its platform, which provides a one-stop shop for companies to create websites with payment processing, order fulfillment and ad management.

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By exiting Shopify two years ago, Bessemer left at least $17 billion on the table. “I couldn’t comprehend that they would have this massive amount of success at that time,” says Alex Ferrara, the Bessemer partner who led Shopify’s initial funding round in 2010.

Even though a global pandemic does not factor into the forecast of most investors, Bessemer’s stake in Shopify stands out as a significant missed opportunity in venture investing because it is rare that a venture capital firm would have built such a large stake in a hot startup, says Will Gornal, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder Business School. “They’re probably kicking themselves.”

Venture capital funds are typically under pressure to post returns on investments in private startups over a relatively short period of time, between five and 10 years, says Gornal. Once a company goes public, a venture firm will often sell its shares back to its own investors, which include pension funds and university endowments, giving them the option to hold their stake in the company or cash out. This kind of mission isn’t conducive to reaping bigger returns that come years after a public offering, like those generated by other tech giants such as Amazon and Google.

Shopify is among a handful of technology companies that have surged in value as the COVID-19 pandemic has forced society to rely on online tools. The big technology firms  Amazon, Microsoft and Google have floated around the $1 trillion valuation mark. The pandemic boosted the rise of newer arrivals, including Zoom, the video-conferencing firm that is now being used not only to connect office meetings but to hold family gatherings. After going public last year, the San Jose-based firm is now worth $44 billion, almost triple its value at the start of the year. Investors such as Emergence Capital Partners, which took a roughly 12% stake early in the company’s growth and says it still holds some of its shares, have had time to benefit from that public-market boost.

Some of Shopify’s early investors were being minted as billionaires even before the pandemic struck, including its CEO Lutke, his father-in-law Bruce McKean, and a couple who invested $750,000 early-on, as Forbes reported in February. But Bessemer is not alone among early investors in Shopify for exiting the company before the height of its riches were truly clear. Felicis Ventures, which invested alongside Bessemer in 2010, has since redistributed its shares back to its limited partners, the firm says.

While Bessemer’s one-time stake in Shopify might prove a once-in-a-lifetime type tech position, Ferrara says the firm will gladly take its realized returns on the deal: between 80x and 100x its initial investment. Says the venture capitalist: “We didn’t have a crystal ball.”

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I’m a staff reporter at Forbes covering tech companies. I previously reported for The Real Deal, where I covered WeWork, real estate tech startups and commercial real estate. As a freelancer, I’ve also written for The New York Times, Associated Press and other outlets. I’m a graduate of Columbia Journalism School, where I was a Toni Stabile Investigative Fellow. Before arriving in the U.S., I was a police reporter in Australia. Follow me on Twitter at @davidjeans2 and email me at djeans@forbes.com

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Shopify Stock Analyzation – Is It A Buy?! Financial Statements For Beginners Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7THNE… Further Support The Channel Via Patreon! http://www.Patreon.com/DanielPronk My Favorite Investing Books: Rule 1 Investing https://amzn.to/2wP3xeA The Intelligent Investor: https://amzn.to/2xzWnvA My Stock Trading Broker – Sign Up and Recieve $50 In FREE Trades: http://www.questrade.com?refid=5d35f0… This is not investment advice. Please do all your own research before buying and selling any stocks or securities. I am not responsible for any loss or gain you may have. #Shopify #SHOP #investing

Market Update for 4 May 2020: Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin

This article provides an overview of news that may be relevant to three different markets: equities (mainly U.S. stocks), commodities (mainly gold), and crypto (mainly Bitcoin).

The price information you’ll see in this article was taken around 08:00 UTC on 4 May 2020. The data providers used for pre-market trading data are as follows:

Two pieces of news seem to be on the minds of many investors today.

First, on Saturday (May 2), legendary American investor Warren Buffett, one of the world’s richest men, as well as the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, made some worrisome comments at his company’s 2020 Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, which was broadcast on Yahoo Finance.

According to a report by CNBC, during the meeting, Buffett explained why Berkshire Hathaway had not made any major investments recently despite the drop in U.S. stock prices as the result of the COVID-19 pandemic and despite the fact that his company is sitting on a mountain of cash (to be more precise, $137 billion in cash and equivalent instruments, according to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 10-Q filing):

“We have not done anything, because we don’t see anything that attractive to do… Now that could change very quickly or it may not change…”

“We are willing to do something very big. I mean you could come to me on Monday morning with something that involved $30, or $40 billion or $50 billion. And if we really like what we are seeing, we would do it.”

As Anthony Pompliano (aka “Pomp”), Co-founder and Partner at Morgan Creek Digital, pointed out yesterday in a Q&A session (on the economy and financial markets) broadcast live on YouTube yesterday, Buffett’s hesitancy to pull the trigger could mean that he expects further falls in the prices of U.S. stocks.

Second, on Sunday (May 3), U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during an interview with ABC’s “This Week” program that the Trump administration believed that the Chinese government “did all it could to make the sure the world didn’t learn in a timely fashion about what was taking place” in China in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, according to ABC, there are U.S. intelligence reports that say the coronavirus may have come from a lab in Wuhan and that China quietly stockpiled medical supplies (such as masks) in the early January.

Pompeo then went on to say that China’s mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis had resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives around the world and that President Trump intends to “hold those responsible accountable.”

CNN says that “multiple sources inside the administration say that there is an appetite to use various tools, including sanctions, canceling US debt obligations and drawing up new trade policies, to make clear to China, and to everyone else, where they feel the responsibility lies.”

Equities

Here is how various stock markets around the world are doing on Monday morning (London time):

  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -4.18%
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225: -2.84%
  • France’s CAC 40: -3.70%
  • Germany’s DAX: -32.%
  • UK’s FTSE 100: -0.14%

Commodities

Spot gold is trading at $1,705.49, up $16.75 (or +1%).

In the year-to-date period, gold is up 17.50%.

Source: Market Update for 4 May 2020: Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin | CryptoGlobe

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India Rupee Slips Past 20 To Dirham In Coronavirus Fallout

Dubai: India rupee has slipped below 20 to the dirham. Right now, it is at 20.07. The lowest it has reached was 20.22 to the dirham, which was on October 9, 2018.

The pressure is likely to continue until the country’s central bank decides what to do to counter the virus impact on the country’s economy. “The Reserve Bank of India has mentioned it is closely monitoring the global as well as domestic situation regarding the impact of the coronavirus,” said Anthony Jos, Executive Director at Joyalukkas Exchange.

“The rupee was already stressed and volatile because of the coronavirus situation and sell-offs by investors in risky assets. There was sustained foreign fund outflow with investors seeing safe havens in US Treasuries.”

Should NRIs wait another day?

Market sources reckon that the Indian Government or the central bank need to outline a set of measures – immediately – to reassure investors that growth will not get derailed by the coronavirus. As for non-resident Indians, the only question before them is whether to remit now or wait hoping the currency could dip lower.

Adeeb Ahamed, Managing Director at Lulu Financial Group, said: “The rupee plunge has come in a dramatic way and is at 73.50 against the dollar, which translates to 20.01 against dirham.

“However, we feel the rupee (low) is overdone and that further falls will be limited, with Reserve Bank of India’s intervention very much expected. It might not go below 72.20 to the dollar in the near future, even if there is intervention or a reversal.

The Indian stock markets are sliding and the currency plummeting in a way beyond control. As of now, the central bank has not intervened since the intensity of the fall is beyond one’s imagination.

– Adeeb Ahamed of Lulu Financial Group

What can India’s central bank do?

The Reserve Bank of India chief has spoken about market intervention to get the economy and stock markets back on track. The easy and immediate way would be to effect an immediate rate cut, which is what the US has done, and followed by central banks in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

Currently, India’s key bank rate is at 5.15 per cent.

“We’re ready for a response should the situation warrant,” said Shaktikanta Das, the RBI Governor. “And going forward, in the near future, I do expect some discussion through video conference or telephone conference among the central banks of the large economies, including India.”

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
File picture of Shaktikanta Das, the RBI Governor. Stock markets were expecting a more robust response from the central bank in trying to contain the coronavirus impact on the Indian economy.

The markets may have been expecting a more robust action from the governor, and not just hints. It could explain why the key stock market index, Sensex, dropped in early trading on Wednesday.

Much the same seems to have happened in the US, where “US equities tanked 3 per cent following a surprise 50-basis-point cut from the Federal Reserve,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note. “It appears that the move rather frustrated investors who were expecting a more creative, or impactful action than a simple rate cut, which they thought wouldn’t remedy to disrupted supply chain problems.

“We have a real issue here: investors are expecting central bankers to become the heroes that they are not meant to be.

“Meanwhile, G7 ministers’ pledge to give the necessary support to fight back the coronavirus shock on the economy didn’t charm investors either.”

Gold treads higher

The lack of keenness to the many announcements can be seen in the renewed investor interest in gold, which on Wednesday was in the $1,640 an ounce plus range.

By:

Source: India rupee slips past 20 to dirham in coronavirus fallout

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