Bitcoin Is Steady As It Braces For A Big Week

Led by bitcoin, most major cryptocurrencies have spent the past seven days in relative tranquility. Bitcoin and ether have been trading -0.69% and -4.46% on the week respectively, according to crypto data aggregator COIN360. The biggest movers are Binance’s BNB, which has added 6.95% over the same period, and Dogecoin, which is down by 8.28%.

As of 8.06 a.m. ET, bitcoin is still facing resistance at $33,576 though on-chain metrics are becoming more bullish. For instance, “bitcoin exchange balances have started to show signs of sustained outflows,” tweeted blockchain data and intelligence provider Glassnode. Approximately 40,000 BTC, or $1.37 billion, have been withdrawn over the last three weeks, reversing weeks of inflows that coincided with the 50% market crash. The withdrawals suggest that traders are moving their funds to outside wallets and aren’t looking to sell in the near term.

That said, there have been some standouts among altcoins. EOS, the native cryptocurrency of the EOS.IO blockchain platform, rallied nearly 11% in the last few days following the announcement that crypto startup Bullish is preparing for a public listing via a $9 billion SPAC deal. During the past year, Bullish received an initial capital injection of $100 million and digital assets, including 20 million EOS, from Block.one, the company behind EOS. Additionally, Block.one’s CEO Brendan Blumer will become the chairman of Bullish upon the transaction’s close.

Another big altcoin winner of the week is Terra (LUNA), a native token of the namesake protocol for issuing fiat-pegged stablecoins,  – up by 30.86%. The token seems to have found its footing after the volatility it saw in May. On July 7, Terraform Labs, the project’s creator, committed approximately $70 million to boost the reserves of its savings protocol Anchor. LUNA’s market capitalization has leaped from $300 million to $3.4 billion since January.

But all eyes will be on one of the largest releases of locked shares (16,240) in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bound to take place on July 17. In total, 40,000 shares will become unlocked in the coming weeks.

The trust, set up as a private placement where qualified investors can buy shares directly from Grayscale, requires investors to hold their shares for six months before selling them on the secondary market. GBTC saw massive interest in late 2020 and early 2021 among institutions looking for a simple way to get exposure to bitcoin.

Opinions on the impact of the event on the market differ. JPMorgan strategists think the selling will add pressure on the cryptocurrency. “Selling of GBTC shares exiting the six-month lockup period during June and July has emerged as an additional headwind for bitcoin,” wrote the bank’s analysts in a note issued earlier in June. “Despite some improvement, our signals remain overall bearish.”

Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, however, seem to disagree: “market structure suggests that the unlock will not weigh materially on BTC spot markets anytime soon, if at all, like some have claimed.” Whether or not the unlock creates a catalyst for price action, it remains one of the most anticipated events of the week.

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I report on cryptocurrencies and emerging use cases of blockchain. Born and raised in Russia, I graduated from NYU Abu Dhabi with a degree in economics and Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, where I focused on data and business reporting.

Source: Bitcoin Is Steady As It Braces For A Big Week

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Critics:

Bitcoin was holding steady after surging to $40,000 following another weekend of price swings following tweets from Tesla boss Elon Musk, who fended off criticism over his market influence and said Tesla sold bitcoin but may resume transactions using it.

In other news, some 81% of fund managers believe Bitcoin is in a bubble, even after May’s 35% price crash, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey and reported by Coindesk.

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The results for the period June 4-10 are up six percentage points from last month’s data, indicating sentiment on Wall Street has turned more bearish. 

The survey showed 72% of the fund managers surveyed think the recent uptick in inflation is transitory. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation, and many crypto analysts attribute the cryptocurrency’s gains over the past year to concern about increasing inflation.

Last week, El Salvador became the world’s first country to recognize bitcoin as legal tender.

References

Bitcoin Adds Back $150 Billion As Visa, PayPal Rev Up Crypto Offerings And Institutions ‘Buy The Dip’

Novelty Coins Representing The Bitcoin Cryptocurrency : Illustration

After a stark plunge Thursday that wiped out $100 billion in market value, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is back near all-time highs Tuesday as corporations like Visa and PayPal join other institutional players in expanding their crypto offerings.

As of 4 p.m. EDT, the price of bitcoin has climbed 2% over the past 24 hours, pushing its market capitalization up to $1.1 trillion–about $40 billion shy from an all-time high on March 13 and pushing gains to roughly $144 billion since a sharp correction on Thursday, according to crypto-data website CoinMarketCap.

‘Analysts are pinning the resurgence to still-booming institutional adoption, including PayPal’s new cryptocurrency checkout service, which launched Tuesday and allows the company’s more than 375 million customers to shop using cryptocurrency at millions of online merchants (PayPal didn’t specify an exact figure, but says the program will expand in the coming months).

Qanda Senior Market Analyst Edward Moya calls the move “another massive cryptocurrency endorsement from Wall Street” and “further proof of mainstream acceptance” just one day after Visa said it will start settling transactions with cryptocurrency partners using a token built on the Ethereum blockchain, which underpins the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, ether.

Moya notes that bitcoin, which is priced at about $59,080, could struggle to push past $60,000 again but says the recent developments “should be enough to keep the bullish trend going strong.”

Nigel Green, the CEO of $12 billion wealth advisory deVere Group, said in an email Tuesday that growing corporate investments from the likes of Tesla and billionaire Jack Dorsey’s Square are signs that institutions are employing the “buy the dip” mantra popularized by retail investors—meaning they’re loading up on bitcoin when prices plunge.

What To Watch For

Regulation. Though Wall Street is warming up to bitcoin, legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned last week that he thinks there’s a “good probability” bitcoin could be banned by the U.S. government, similar to how it banned gold nearly a century ago. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been slow to issue regulation for cryptocurrencies.

In an interview with Forbes, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said Gary Gensler, President Joe Biden’s nominee to head up the agency,  would likely be “sympathetic to the call for regulatory clarity.” When nations like South Korea started cracking down on cryptocurrency three years ago, prices crashed as much as 80% over the course of one year, though it’s unclear how such a development could affect markets today.

Key Background

Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed over the past year amid booming institutional adoption and inflation fears sparked by unprecedented government spending to combat the pandemic. Last week, billionaire Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would start accepting bitcoin for vehicle purchases and retaining the cryptocurrency tendered, as opposed to converting it to U.S. dollars. Also this month, Fidelity Investments filed an application for its first bitcoin exchange-traded fund, and banking powerhouse Morgan Stanley said it would open up bitcoin exposure to its wealthy clients, though it’s limiting such funds to investors with “an aggressive risk tolerance.”

Surprising Fact

Bitcoin has surged nearly 800% over the past year. Its return of about 96% this year is more than any sector tracked by the S&P 500.

Further Reading

SEC Commissioner Explains Why A Delayed Bitcoin ETF Has Consequences (Forbes)

Bitcoin Plunge Erases $100 Billion In 24 Hours–Here’s How Long The ‘Bloodbath’ Could Last (Forbes)

Legendary Investor Warns Bitcoin Ban ‘Likely’ As Price Suddenly Soars Toward $60,000 (Forbes)

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I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com

Source: Bitcoin Adds Back $150 Billion As Visa, PayPal Rev Up Crypto Offerings And Institutions ‘Buy The Dip’

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Chamath Palihapitiya says he sees bitcoin going to $200K down the road, and what he discusses what he believes to be the future for Virgin Galactic. I really believe in the business, he says, it’s an incredible team. Subscribe to CNBC PRO for access to investor and analyst insights on bitcoin and more: https://cnb.cx/2BT2E7y
Bitcoin smashed through $40,000 to hit a new record high on Thursday helping to lift the total value of the entire cryptocurrency market above $1 trillion for the first time. The digital coin hit an all-time high of $40,367 at around 1:17 p.m. ET, just a few hours after blowing past the $39,000 level, according to data from Coin Metrics.
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Bitcoin Poised For ‘Massive Transformation’ Into The Mainstream, Citi Says

Bitcoin

Bitcoin could be at the start of a “massive transformation” into the mainstream and on the path to become “the currency of choice for international trade,” according to leading investment bank Citi, which noted the cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise in value in recent years and a growing interest from institutional investors as potentially setting the stage for widespread success.

In a report published Monday, Citi analysts said the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was at a “tipping point” between widespread adoption or a “speculative implosion.”

Bitcoin’s growing use as a payment tool, the increasing availability of digital wallets, and institutional interest from the likes of Tesla and Mastercard have all helped buoy confidence in the cryptocurrency and could see it become the leading medium for international trade in the future, Citi said.

The analysts described Bitcoin as the “North Star” of the blockchain ecosystem, with its underlying technology launching an entirely new domain of the digital economy around it.

However, there are a number of risks and obstacles that could see the Bitcoin bubble burst, the analysts warned, and widespread changes to the market would be required for Bitcoin to be adopted more widely.

Dampened institutional investment in the post-Covid-19 world would remove a key pillar of support for Bitcoin, Citi said, and anticipated regulation and oversight—which runs counter to the anti-establishment ideology underpinning the cryptocurrency—could also “cause many of the most innovative developers and entrepreneurs to exit the ecosystem,” the analysts wrote.

Key Background

Bitcoin is one of the most volatile asset classes around. It has a bumpy and storied history since it was outlined in a paper in 2009, moving from practically worthless to an all time high of over $58,000 a coin in February 2021 (the price has since dropped to around $47,000) with several significant troughs and peaks in between. At its highest, Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion. As with the bulk of its history, Bitcoin is still driven by retail investors, who billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates warned not to get drawn in by the “mania” and enthusiasm of Elon Musk who has money to spare should things go wrong.

Crucial Quote

“I think bitcoin is really on the verge of getting broad acceptance by sort of the conventional finance people,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Clubhouse earlier this year.

Tangent

In October, PayPal finally welcomed cryptocurrencies to its platform, believed by many to be a precursor to it moving into the mainstream. PayPal will support four different cryptocurrencies—bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and bitcoin cash—and will expand the service to Venmo in 2021.

Further Reading

Bitcoin. At the Tipping Point (Citi)

Bitcoin rises 6% as risk assets rally; Citi says at a “tipping point” (Reuters)

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value Doubted Due to ESG, Tighter Rules (Bloomberg)

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I am a London-based reporter for Forbes covering breaking news. Previously, I have worked as a reporter for a specialist legal publication covering big data and as a freelance journalist and policy analyst covering science, tech and health. I have a master’s degree in Biological Natural Sciences and a master’s degree in the History and Philosophy of Science from the University of Cambridge. Follow me on Twitter @theroberthart or email me at rhart@forbes.com

Source: Bitcoin Poised For ‘Massive Transformation’ Into The Mainstream, Citi Says

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One Of Bitcoin’s Biggest Backers Just Spent $1 Billion Buying More

In this photo illustration a Bitcoin logo is seen displayed...

While bitcoin remains about 15% below its record high from Sunday, a couple of the cryptocurrency’s biggest corporate backers have doubled-down on their bitcoin investments during the recent correction despite concerns over the token’s unshakeable volatility.

Business analytics company MicroStrategy said Wednesday morning that it spent slightly more than $1 billion buying about 19,452 bitcoin tokens during the recent correction, averaging about $52,756 per bitcoin.

As of Wednesday, the firm, which used debt to finance its recent bitcoin acquisition, holds roughly 90,531 tokens that it purchased at a combined price of nearly $2.2 billion–less than half the $4.5 billion they’re worth at current prices.

In a statement, MicroStrategy ژEO Michael Saylor said acquiring and holding bitcoin remains one of the company’s two biggest strategic priorities (in addition to growing its analytics software business) and that the investment “reaffirms [the firm’s] belief that bitcoin, as the world’s most widely adopted cryptocurrency, can serve as a dependable store of value.”

The move comes less than a day after payments fintech Square, cofounded and led by billionaire Jack Dorsey, revealed it’s also doubled-down on its bitcoin investment–investing another $170 million in the cryptocurrency this month after a $50 million investment in October.

At current prices, Square’s October investment is worth approximately $230 million–more than four times the purchase price; combined with the recent purchase, bitcoin represents about 10% of the cash Square had on hand at the end of last year.

MicroStrategy shares have plummeted 42% since a nearly 20-year high on February 9–the day after Tesla disclosed a $1.5 billion bitcoin investment; much of the plunge has been fueled by crashing bitcoin prices, which have similarly tanked Tesla shares.

Crucial Quote

“Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace for people that don’t have the ability to run their own hedge fund,” Saylor said on CNBC Tuesday. “It’s not a stock; it’s an asset class, and so if I put $1 billion into a bank, and then came back and put another $10 billion in a bank, the bank is not overvalued, it’s just 10 times bigger.”

Surprising Fact

Bitcoin has plummeted about 16% from its record high of more than $58,000 on Sunday, but it’s still up more than 400% in the past year.

Key Background

In addition to corporations bulking up their balance sheets with volatile bitcoin, institutional investors continue to bolster adoption in the space. This month alone, the first two bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in Canada, BNY Mellon announced that its wealth management arm will process cryptocurrencies alongside stocks and bonds, and news broke that Morgan Stanley’s $150 billion investing arm is considering adding bitcoin to its portfolio.

Chief Critic

Bitcoin prices reversed a recent rally on Sunday after Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that its prices seemed “a little high,” fueling concerns among experts that the token’s volatility makes it an unreliable store of value. “The fall that has taken place since [Musk’s tweet] shows just how wild an instrument bitcoin is, how overbought it has become and how influential the Tesla CEO now is in the space,” Oanda Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam said Tuesday. “I’m not sure any of that is a good thing.”

genesis-3-1

Further Reading

Not Just Tesla: Big Institutions Keep Piling Into Bitcoin As Price Rockets Past $50,000 (Forbes)

Tesla Has Plunged 25% And Lost $200 Billion In Market Value Since Its Bitcoin Investment (Forbes)

Bitcoin Market Value Shoots Past $1 Trillion Amid Tesla-Fueled Surge (Forbes)

Bitcoin Soars To New High After Tesla Says It Invested $1.5 Billion (Forbes)

Follow me on Twitter. Send me a secure tip.

I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com.

Source: One Of Bitcoin’s Biggest Backers Just Spent $1 Billion Buying More

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Nakamoto’s Neighbor: My Hunt For Bitcoin’s Creator Led To A Paralyzed Crypto Genius

Hal Finney’s light brown eyes are pointed down. I’ve just asked him if he was involved in the creation of Bitcoin. The 57-year-old man’s almost imperceptible eye movement is his only way of telling me that he was not, and that I’ve spent the last week caught in the same futile windmill-tilting that has ensnared so many other reporters trying to solve the puzzle of Bitcoin’s mysterious creator known only as Satoshi Nakamoto.

Finney is seated in an elaborate wheelchair, flanked by medical equipment and his wife and son, both of whom are wearing blue t-shirts that read “Hal’s Pals: Fight ALS.” ALS, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, is the name of the terminal disease that has locked Finney into a body whose muscles no longer obey his mind’s commands. His eyes are among the few parts of his anatomy that his will still controls. He uses them to manipulate voice synthesis software running on a computer attached to his wheelchair with an eye-tracking camera. Until recently, this setup allowed him to speak fluidly in a computerized voice.

But as the disease has progressed, even Finney’s eye movements are deteriorating. He’s often reduced to yes-and-no conversations like the one we’re having now. His engineer’s mind, which has written some of the most important code in the history of cryptography, is unaffected by the disease and remains as lucid as ever. But its last lifelines to the outside world are growing thin.

I ask Finney if he has any connection to Dorian Nakamoto, the man Newsweek has a week earlier named as the creator of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that has come to represent an entirely new digital form of money, and whose total value has risen as high as $16 billion at some points over the last year.

His eyes glance downward again, and this time Finney grins. His son Jason explains that involuntary movements are less affected by ALS than voluntary ones; Finney can’t easily smile on command for a photograph, but he can smile when he’s amused, and he’s clearly amused by my questions.

Finally, in a plea that must sound a little desperate, I ask Finney to show me what “yes” looks like, just to be sure I haven’t somehow misinterpreted his denials. He raises his eyes and eyebrows unmistakably, still grinning.

Amazing, I think, how quickly a raised eyebrow can shut down the most elaborate theories.

A week earlier, I was following clues that seemed to point to either Finney’s involvement in the creation of Bitcoin or one of the most improbable coincidences I’d ever encountered. Today, I believe those connections were in fact random, that Finney is telling the truth when he denies helping to invent Bitcoin, and that I am only the most recent of a long string of journalists to succumb to the mirage of a Satoshi Nakamoto-shaped pattern in a collection of meaningless facts.

But in following the clues that led me to Finney, I found something equally significant: a dying man who had been something like a far-more-brilliant Forrest Gump of cryptographic history: a witness to and participant in practically every important moment in the recent history of secret-keeping technologies. From the development of the first widely used strong encryption software known as PGP, to early anonymity systems, to the first Bitcoin transaction, Finney was there.

The rabbit-hole journey that led to my meeting with Finney began on March 6th, the day that Newsweek released its bombshell cover story on the man who it claimed had invented Bitcoin: Dorian Prentice Satoshi Nakamoto, a 64-year old ex-engineer and programmer living in the small exurb of Los Angeles known as Temple City. Nakamoto had even seemed to give Newsweek a tacit confirmation of its theory when he told the magazine’s reporter that he was “no longer involved in that,” a quote confirmed in essence by local police who witnessed the interaction.

Just hours after Newsweek‘s story hit the Web, I received an email from an old cryptography community acquaintance of Finney’s who has asked to remain anonymous. The email was titled “What are the odds?” It pointed out that Hal Finney had lived for almost a decade in Temple City, the same 36,000 person town where Newsweek found Dorian Nakamoto. Finney’s address was only a few blocks away from the Nakamoto’s family home.

This was an uncanny link: Finney is known to be the second-ever user of Bitcoin after Satoshi Nakamoto himself. He had been one of the first supporters of the idea when Nakamoto floated it on a cryptography mail list, and even received the first Bitcoin test transaction from Nakamoto in early 2009, as Finney himself wrote in a post to the Bitcointalk forum.

In other words, the possibly-first and confirmed-second ever users of Bitcoin lived just blocks apart.

“What are the odds in a country as large as ours, or as large as California is, or even as large as the general LA area is, that [Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto] and Hal Finney both live(d) in Temple City at the same time, about 1.6 miles from each other?” my contact wrote. “Did they know each other socially, through some club? Did one help the other?”

Already, the theory was percolating through the Texas Bitcoin Conference I was attending that day in Austin, where one Bitcoin podcaster independently rehearsed a more extreme version of the same theory for me over drinks: Had Finney invented Bitcoin himself and simply used his neighbor’s name as a pseudonym? On Reddit, a user traced Finney’s IP address and found that he was in the Los Angeles area. “Dorian [Nakamoto] probably could’ve been a drop,” wrote a user called Ikinoki, using the hacker jargon “drop,” a patsy whose personal information is used to hide online exploits.

I didn’t suspect Finney of anything nearly so malicious. Instead, I began to believe he might have been Bitcoin’s ghostwriter.

At the request of my Forbes colleague Matt Herper, the writing analysis consultancy Juola & Associates had already compared Dorian Nakamoto’s various online comments and postings with Satoshi Nakamoto’s writings on Bitcoin before his total disappearance from the Web in 2011. (Read the details of their analysis in Herper’s post here.) Unsurprisingly, they found a total mismatch: Dorian Nakamoto’s half-broken English hardly matched the elegant technical style of Bitcoin’s creator.

Hal Finney’s writing, on the other hand, was as fluid and precise as the whitepaper that first introduced Bitcoin in late 2008. Maybe, I thought, Finney had served as something like Nakamoto’s amanuensis, crediting Nakamoto for the idea, but using his own superior writing skills to explain Bitcoin to the public. I collected a 20,000 character sample of Finney’s writing from various forums and mailing lists and sent it to Juola & Associates for analysis.

In the mean time, I emailed Finney a few times. When I didn’t hear back–he’s been mostly absent from the Internet as his paralysis deepens–I called his wife, Fran, who now works as Finney’s full-time caregiver. She explained her husband’s medical situation, and patiently relayed my questions to him. Using his eyebrows and eye movements, as she described to me over the phone, he confirmed that he had corresponded with Bitcoin’s creator, but denied any connection to the invention of Bitcoin or the Dorian Nakamoto Newsweek had named, just as he would when I visited a week later. “For all Hal knew, Satoshi Nakamoto could have been next door, or he could have been in Japan,” Fran said.

She also politely invited me to visit her and her husband in Santa Barbara, where the couple now lives. In person, she said, it would be easier to convince me that Finney wasn’t involved in Bitcoin’s invention despite the one-in-a-million geographical connection. She also requested that I include in any story I wrote her plea to the media and the Bitcoin community not to flock to their home and stalk Finney for interviews the way reporters had immediately done at Dorian Nakamoto’s house following Newsweek‘s story.

“He’s very fragile,” she told me. “We have him on ventilator support twenty-four hours a day. He has difficulty communicating. It would be nice if people would not harass him.”

Just hours after that phone conversation, I received the results from the writing analysis from Juola & Associates. The firm, its chief scientist John Noecker explained in a phone call, had previously tried analyzing candidates for Satoshi Nakamoto named by older investigations performed by the New Yorker, Fast Company, and various Bitcoin enthusiasts. None of the results had been promising enough to publish, according to Noecker.

Hal Finney, by contrast, was the best Nakamoto candidate whose writing the firm had ever analyzed and the first who Noecker believed might have actually written the Bitcoin whitepaper.

“So, it seems to me,” he wrote in an email, “that you may have found the real Satoshi Nakamoto.”

***

Satoshi Nakamoto (left) in a 1967 yearbook photo, and Hal Finney in a 1974 yearbook photo.

Hal Finney grew up in the idyllic Los Angeles suburb of Arcadia, in a two-story cottage-style house just an eight-minute drive away from the Nakamoto family home in Temple City. Dorian Nakamoto, then known by his birth name of Satoshi Nakamoto, was seven years older than Finney, and the two never attended the same school. But Nakamoto’s brother Tokuo Nakamoto tells me that Satoshi commuted from the Temple City address to college at California Polytechnic Institute well into the early 1970s, when Finney was attending Arcadia High School just a few miles away.

None of Finney’s friends at Arcadia High whom I spoke to had any memory of an older friend or acquaintance of Finney’s named Satoshi Nakamoto.

They do remember Finney as an unusually intelligent and thoughtful student, who at times carried around an impressively large copy of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged and seemed to have adopted its lessons about libertarian free thinking. Friends recall him quietly sitting in the back of a physics class, only to approach the teacher afterwards to correct an error or suggest a better way of articulating a problem. At math team competitions, Finney would ring in with an answer to most questions before they’d been fully asked. In 1974, his senior year, he was voted “most brains” by his peers.

“He had this uncanny feel for numbers,” says Richard Lewis, a friend of Finney’s who is now a Stanford physiology professor. “To him, they seemed like living things that had behavior, that you could learn from.”

Finney enrolled in the California Institute of Technology, and soon switched his focus from mathematics to computers, staying up through the night and often missing class to obsess over his coded creations. When he graduated, he married his college girlfriend Fran and took a job writing video games for Mattel. In 1982, the Finneys moved to a house in Temple City, again less than two miles from the Nakamoto family home. (Dorian Nakamoto wouldn’t return to the Los Angeles area from New Jersey until 1987, according to Newsweek, and then lived in other neighborhoods like Buena Park and Costa Mesa. But Dorian Nakamoto’s mother and then a Nakamoto a family trust maintained ownership of the Temple City house through Finney’s nine years living in the neighborhood.)

It wasn’t until 1991 that Finney discovered the movement of anti-authoritarian encryption gurus who would define much of the rest of his career: the Cypherpunks. Centered around the Cypherpunk email list, the group advocated encryption tools as a means to shift power from the government and to individuals. Like many cypherpunks, Finney was inspired by the work of David Chaum, another Los Angelino cryptographer who had proposed theoretical systems that would use encryption tools to enable anonymous communications and even untraceable financial transactions. Chaum had developed the first-ever virtual currency known as DigiCash, with some of the anonymous and decentralized properties of Bitcoin, though it never gained widespread adoption.

“It seemed so obvious to me,” Finney would write on the Cypherpunks Mailing List in 1992. “Here we are faced with the problems of loss of privacy, creeping computerization, massive databases, more centralization – and Chaum offers a completely different direction to go in, one which puts power into the hands of individuals rather than governments and corporations. The computer can be used as a tool to liberate and protect people, rather than to control them.”

Finney put his programming prowess to work building the tools to enact that cryptoanarchist vision. “Our motto was ‘Cypherpunks write code,'” says Tim May, a co-founder of the group, referring to a line in the Cypherpunk’s Manifesto written by his co-founder Eric Hughes. “Hal was one of those who actually wrote code.”

When word hit the mailing list that privacy activist Phil Zimmermann planned to release PGP or Pretty Good Privacy, the first freely available encryption program strong enough that not even government intelligence agencies could break it, Finney contacted Zimmermann and became one of his earliest collaborators. He worked almost a full-time job’s worth of hours developing PGP 2.0, widely considered to be the first truly secure version of the program, and pioneered its “web of trust” model of key-signing, a method to establish trusted identities through the peer-to-peer vouching of a community of users. “The trust model was a very complex part, and this was of crucial importance to PGP’s success,” says Zimmermann. “Hal made an enormous contribution.”

(When Zimmermann first wrote back to my query about Finney, he also noted Finney’s extraordinary humility and strength of character: “Hal is a rare genius who never had to trade his emotional intelligence to get his intellectual gifts,” Zimmermann wrote. “He is a fine human being, an inspiration for his attitude toward life. I wish I could be like him.”)

In fact, decades before anyone suspected Finney of ghostwriting Bitcoin, Finney ghostwrote much of PGP. Because of the legal controversy around the encryption tool’s distribution on the Internet–Zimmermann was nearly indicted for arms export control violations–Finney’s role was downplayed in Zimmermann’s public discussion of the program. Though Finney told me that he worked closely with Zimmermann to code “the bulk of the changes” from PGP 1.0 to PGP 2.0, he’s rarely been fully credited for that work.

As PGP’s usage spread, Finney was also the first to integrate the encryption software into “remailers”–free services that acted as proxy servers for email, bouncing messages among third parties so that they couldn’t be traced to their source. “Two people could communicate using email, with both of their identities being protected from the other,” Finney explained on the Cypherpunks Mailing List. Those tools would eventually evolve into strong anonymity services like MixMaster and Tor, used by millions around the world today.

Meanwhile, Finney never gave up on Chaum’s ideas of digital, pseudonymous currency. “With digital cash and smart cards, you should be able to engage in…transactions with no organization or institution able to violate your privacy or steal your money,” he wrote on the mail list in 1993. “You can protect yourself, rather than having to trust others. This puts more power into the hands of the consumer.” A few years later, Finney would even develop a “proof-of-work” system that closely resembled the one Bitcoin would later use, requiring that participants of the system solve complex computer problems to create a barrier to entry and keep out those who would corrupt the system.

So when the idea for Bitcoin first appeared on a cryptography mailing in 2008, posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, Finney says he was immediately enthusiastic, and responded with curious questions. Nakamoto’s announcement otherwise got a mostly skeptical reception. “Cryptographers have seen too many grand schemes by clueless noobs,” Finney wrote on the BitcoinTalk forum in 2013. “I was more idealistic; I have always loved crypto, the mystery and the paradox of it.”

Finney downloaded the early Bitcoin code and began running it on an IBM Windows desktop tower machine. He’s widely believed to be the first person other than Nakamoto himself to do so. He kept it running for weeks–just how long, he declined to tell me. With no competition, he was able to mine as much as a hundred coins a day using only his old PC’s off-the-shelf CPU. But sometime after mining a thousand coins, Finney turned the machine off–he and his son were worried the computer was overheating. The stash of bitcoins sat on Finney’s hard drive and were later burned to a DVD, left to gather dust on a desk. “I thought it was just an altruistic thing he was doing for a friend,” says Fran Finney. “And we thought the PGP thing had been enough altruism already.”

During his Bitcoin experimentation, Finney corresponded with Nakamoto, sending him a series of bug reports and suggestions for fixes. He would later write that while he had no idea of Nakamoto’s real identity or location, he imagined Bitcoin’s creator to be “a young man of Japanese ancestry who was very smart and sincere.”

In early 2009, Nakamoto also sent Finney the first ever test transfer of bitcoins. Finney said at the time he’d repay the ten coins back to Nakamoto. He never did, Fran Finney recalls with a laugh. He had other things on his mind by then, she says: Finney inexplicably began to fatigue quickly, slur his words, experience strange tingling, and lose coordination in his right hand. His doctor diagnosed him with ALS in August of 2009.

As Finney’s muscle control declined over the next years, he continued to write code for Bitcoin. At one point he wrote up an improvement to its elliptic-curve cryptography that would speed up its transactions by as much as 20%. Even after he lost the ability to type with both hands, and then to type at all, he continued to use eye-tracking software to write code, including a program called bcflick aimed at better securing Bitcoin wallets. “I am most proud of my work on PGP,” Finney wrote to me in an email, “ Although I would not be surprised if my small contributions to Bitcoin, particularly my optimization of the elliptic curve math, may be the lasting contribution of my work.”

As for the bitcoins Finney mined in those early days, he writes that he was relieved to rediscover them in 2010, still intact, as the currency suddenly began to gain value. He transferred them to the disc, and then later stored it in a safety deposit box at the family’s bank. But as Finney’s medical bills mounted, Finney sold the majority of the coins at an exchange rate of around $100, just a fraction of the more than $500 they’d be valued at today.

“[Our son] Jason is always saying ‘what if, what if,’” Fran says of the decision to sell the coins. “It’s fine with me if it means we have enough money to keep Hal alive, at home and comfortable.”

Fran declines to say just how much the family’s remaining Bitcoin savings are worth, but adds that the family has never had as much cryptocurrency wealth as is often rumored. Last year, she says, an extortion attempt threatened to release private information about the family online if Finney didn’t transfer a large number of bitcoins–more than he even had remaining after his medical expenses.

Finney himself doesn’t seem to dwell on what could have been, as much as his good fortune in becoming Bitcoin’s earliest-ever adopter. “I’m pretty lucky overall. Even with the ALS, my life is very satisfying. But my life expectancy is limited,” he wrote last year. “I’m comfortable with my legacy.”

***

After my initial phone call with Fran Finney, Hal Finney wrote me an email that I later learned had taken him the better part of a day to produce with his limited eye movement. In the note, he not only denied inventing Bitcoin, but also expressed doubts at Newsweek‘s focus on his old neighbor Dorian Nakamoto.

I must be brief. The reason I was skeptical about Dorian Nakamoto is that he didn’t match the picture in my mind that I had of Satoshi. I pictured him younger, as he was giving the impression of youthful vigor. Then there is the language Bitcoin was written in, C++. Satoshi was a master of the intricacies, and I’ve only seen this in young programmers. It seems hard to master C++ if you didn’t learn it while you’re young. As I have learned more about him, there are details that don’t add up, such as his care for an aging mother, which might cause financial strain.

As for your suspicion that I either am or at least helped Satoshi, I’m flattered but I deny categorically these allegations. I don’t know what more I can say. You have records of how I reacted to the announcement of Bitcoin, and I struggled to understand it. I suppose you could retort that I was able to fake it, but I don’t know what I can say to that. I’ve done some changes to the Bitcoin code, and my style is completely different from Satoshi’s. I program in C, which is compatible with C++, but I don’t understand the tricks that Satoshi used.

As far as your theory that I knew Dorian, that is unlikely because I lived in Temple City more than a decade ago, when Bitcoin hadn’t even been dreamed up. Again, I categorically deny any familiarity with Dorian Nakamoto.

In a written statement of his own a week later, Dorian Nakamoto would also deny any involvement with Bitcoin, arguing that he had never worked in cryptography and was so financially impoverished that he couldn’t even afford an Internet connection—two claims that called into question Newsweek‘s assertion that he had invented Bitcoin, and with it, any connection this Nakamoto might have had to Finney. Through his brother Tokuo, Dorian Nakamoto also told me he had never before heard Hal Finney’s name.

But the most compelling evidence that Finney didn’t invent Bitcoin or ghostwrite the 2008 Bitcoin whitepaper came during my visit to the Finneys’ Santa Barbara home.

I arrived on a Saturday afternoon, 20 minutes late due to traffic between Los Angeles and the Santa Barbara suburb. Fran Finney welcomed me into her home and brought me into the living room, where Finney himself sat in his wheelchair with his son Jason. His ventilator whirred rhythmically and the air smelled faintly of something sweet, like hot milk.

I apologized for being late. Finney’s first words to me, and the longest sentence I heard him speak in his robotic voice, were “Andy, it’s hard to time the drive from LA.” He had spent around ten minutes writing the sentence with his eye movements, just to comfort me about my tardiness. “We’re used to that kind of thing from him,” Fran told me. “He’s a good guy.”

I sat down with Finney and explained again the strange connections that had brought me to his home. Then I rehearsed the questions I’d asked through his wife over the phone. With his eyes, he gave the same friendly denials.

walletscreenshot

Then Jason Finney brought me over to a computer to show me what he’d prepared: It was Finney’s Gmail account, opened to a January 2009 conversation between Finney and someone named Satoshi Nakamoto—clearly, the Satoshi Nakamoto. They had exchanged about fifteen emails, in which Finney described bugs he’d found in the early Bitcoin code and Nakamoto responded with fixes and notes of thanks.

The Nakamoto on the other end of the conversation wrote in fluent, colloquial English, not at all like Dorian Nakamoto. (I would later forward the emails to the same linguistics analysis firm who had earlier analyzed Nakamoto’s writings, Juola & Associates, and they confirmed that the new emails matched the style of the Bitcoin whitepaper more closely than Finney’s writing, and far more closely than Dorian Nakamoto’s.)

Jason Finney also let me see the transaction record for his father’s Bitcoin wallet from 2009, which clearly showed that Finney had received Nakamoto’s ten-bitcoin test transaction on January 11th, 2009. The wallet evidence, along with the Gmail timestamps, would have been very difficult to forge. And the notion that Finney alone might have set up the two accounts and created a fake conversation with himself to throw off snoops like me, long before Bitcoin had any measurable value, seemed preposterous.

“My father is an honest guy,” Jason said. “He would have loved to have been part of creating Bitcoin, and he wouldn’t have hidden it. But he wasn’t involved.”

At this point, I was convinced I had reached a dead end. All the signs that Finney might have had a secret hand in the creation of Bitcoin had turned out to be nothing more than an illusion of a signal in random noise.

But even as I dropped my theory, I had learned enough to know that Finney was no random red herring. As an open source project, Bitcoin has been built and rebuilt by a community of programmers who have rewritten 70% of its code, like a ship whose crew replaces its hull while at sea. As the very first debugger and contributor to Bitcoin’s code long before a bitcoin was ever worth a thousandth of a penny, there’s no question that Finney did in fact help to create it. And this might be the last chance I or any other journalist might have to meet him in person.

I sat next to Finney again and asked him if, in this sense of open-source contribution, he did consider himself one of the creators of Bitcoin.

He raised his eyes and eyebrows.

Then I asked him if he was proud of that work. Finney raised his eyes again, and he smiled.

With reporting contributed by Matt Herper, Susan Radlauer and Kashmir Hill.

Follow me on Twitter , email me, anonymously send me sensitive documents or tips , and check out the new paperback edition of my book, This Machine Kills Secrets: Julian Assange, the Cypherpunks, and Their Fight to Empower Whistleblowers.

I’m a technology, privacy, and information security reporter and most recently the author of the book This Machine Kills Secrets, a chronicle of the history and future of information leaks, from the Pentagon Papers to WikiLeaks and beyond. I’ve covered the hacker beat for Forbes since 2007, with frequent detours into digital miscellania like switches, servers, supercomputers, search, e-books, online censorship, robots, and China. My favorite stories are the ones where non-fiction resembles science fiction. My favorite sources usually have the word “research” in their titles. Since I joined Forbes, this job has taken me from an autonomous car race in the California desert all the way to Beijing, where I wrote the first English-language cover story on the Chinese search billionaire Robin Li for Forbes Asia. Black hats, white hats, cyborgs, cyberspies, idiot savants and even CEOs are welcome to email me at agreenberg (at) forbes.com. My PGP public key can be found here.

Source: Nakamoto’s Neighbor: My Hunt For Bitcoin’s Creator Led To A Paralyzed Crypto Genius

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Glowing dark background with bitcoin symbol.

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, told CNBC Wednesday that the investment giant has “started to dabble” in bitcoin—it’s the latest instance of a major financial player dipping its toes into digital assets.

Reider did not elaborate on BlackRock’s cryptocurrency strategy, but last month the investment giant filed documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission showing that it wants to include cash-settled Bitcoin futures as eligible investments for two of its funds.

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager—it managed some $8.7 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter.

Rieder told CNBC that he believes bitcoin’s recent rally is gaining momentum in part because of stronger regulations and better technology.

“My sense is the technology has evolved and the regulation has evolved to the point where a number of people find it should be part of the portfolio, so that’s what’s driving the price up,” he said.

Big Number

$51,000. That’s the new record price bitcoin hit early on Wednesday morning. The most popular cryptocurrency started the year with prices around $30,000.

Key Background

A spate of major corporations and financial institutions including MicroStrategy, BNY Mellon, and MasterCard,and PayPal have announced cryptocurrency initiatives this month, and there are reports that a $150 billion investment division at Morgan Stanley is considering investing in bitcoin. A portion of bitcoin’s recent gains are likely attributable to a surprise announcement from Tesla that the electric car maker had invested $1.5 billion into the cryptocurrency and has plans to start accepting it as payment.

Further Reading

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says the world’s largest asset manager has ‘started to dabble’ in bitcoin (CNBC)

Not Just Tesla: Big Institutions Keep Piling Into Bitcoin As Price Rockets Past $50,000 (Forbes)

Bitcoin Soars To New High After Tesla Says It Invested $1.5 Billion (Forbes)

BlackRock Files To Add Bitcoin Futures To Funds (Forbes)

By: Sarah HansenSarah Hansen

 

 

Source: $8.7 Trillion Asset Manager BlackRock Is Exploring Bitcoin As Institutions Flood Crypto

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Bitcoin surges to hit NEW all-time high on Christmas day as BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, looking to cryptocurrency in 2021! Altcoin Daily, the best cryptocurrency news media online! Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AltcoinDailyio Follow me [Austin] on Instagram here: https://www.instagram.com/theaustinar… TimeStamps: 00:00 Intro 00:17 Bitcoin and BlackRock 05:39 NEW SEC Chairman Appointed! 07:14 XRP Delistings 09:38 1inch vs Uniswap vs Sushi 11:31 Final Thoughts
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Meet Lily The 3-Year-Old Girl Who Explains How Bitcoin Works With Sweets

Meet Lily, the 3-Year-Old Girl Who Explains How Bitcoin Works With Sweets

Lily, just 3 years old, has her own program in which she explains simple things to her followers on Facebook and Twitter (for now). In her fifth chapter, she explains how Bitcoin works with the help of sweet Skittles , her stuffed animals and of course, her parents.

She started Lily’s Show in August 2020, but on February 2 she posted a video of just over two minutes explaining the basics of Bitcoin , something that many adults still have doubts about.

The information is based on Michael Caras’ children’s book, ” Bitcoin Money: A Tale of Bitville Discovering Good Money.”

The little girl begins by saying that Bitcoin is “decentralized digital money!” In other words, it does not need a bank to exist, in addition to the fact that there are only 21 million of them in the world and it was created by Satoshi Nakamoto, whom he identifies as “a mystery”.

To explain how a transaction works, he uses wallets with sweets and pieces of wood, which represent bitcoin wallets and the blockchain . The various purses belong to her, her Teddy bear, a unicorn and Dolly, her stuffed animals.

In this way, each that a sweet ( Skittles ) passes from one bag to another, it represents a transaction that generates a piece of wood and when several of them are stacked it symbolizes the blockchain , which no one can see because it is anonymous.

Lily wonders “why is it so expensive?” . So he explains that it is because of the security he has; Money cannot be stolen, bank accounts cannot be hacked, only you have access with a 12-digit code, but if you lose it you are in “trouble” and you can lose all your money .

To finish little Lily takes off her glasses and tells her mother that she doesn’t need them to look smart, “silly mommy .” Besides mentioning that he loves bitcoins… and skittles .

Source: Meet Lily, the 3-Year-Old Girl Who Explains How Bitcoin Works With Sweets

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Bitcoin: It’s Not If, It’s Now Just A Matter Of When

Elon Musk’s proverbial ability to kick the hornet’s nest at the right moments is once again evident in the wake of the recent news that Tesla has bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin: since then, the value of bitcoin has appreciated to almost $50,000, Mastercard has announced that it will enable the use of cryptocurrencies on its network (this would seem for the moment to be a statement of intent, saying it will do so when cryptocurrencies are “stable”, which would point for the moment only to stablecoins), while yesterday, Jack Dorsey and Jay-Z announced the creation of a 500-bitcoin fund worth around $23. 6 million, in order to finance the development of a bitcoin-based economy in Africa and India, and with the mission of making bitcoin the currency of the internet. In short, a normalization of the use of bitcoin that aims to anticipate the development of its future as the basis of an economy based on decentralized and independent digital money.

Musk’s bitcoin maneuver earned Tesla more money in one day than in the entire previous quarter selling cars, in addition to the curious fact that, at the time of the announcement, some of the brand’s vehicles were worth approximately one bitcoin. This is nothing compared to the $100,000 it is expected to be worth by the end of this year, or the $500,000 that some expect it to be worth by virtue of the algorithmic process that progressively stabilizes its value.

There is a certain poetic justice here: Musk was once sanctioned by the SEC for artificially raising the value of Tesla’s stock price; now he has gotten his revenge with a trick as simple as revealing that his company has invested in an asset he knew perfectly well was going to appreciate dramatically precisely as a result of the announcement that was made on the basis of the SEC’s own information: a masterstroke.

At the same time, Musk has been widely criticized, given the electricity consumption generated by bitcoin. We should remember that there is much self-interest in these accusations of the vast use of electricity in bitcoin mining, an activity that tends, logically, to be located precisely where it can fetch better prices for energy, and has long been oriented to places where the cheapest energy is obtained, which contrary to what many think, has been obtained from renewable sources for some time now.

If bitcoin’s critics were really that concerned about the resource consumption they argue it generates, they would do well to be more concerned about the resource consumption and the much more obvious inefficiency — in every sense — of the world’s currency markets, which move around $6 trillion every day simply by speculating on the value of some currencies against others.

PROMOTED

The example of Musk and Tesla’s leadership on bitcoin adoption is acting as a powerful magnet for other companies to try to optimize their cash management through operations of this type, which would accelerate the implementation of bitcoin, for the moment as a store of value, but over time, and following the development of the algorithm that regulates its mining and the incentives to process its operations, into a transactional instrument.

This progressive normalization of bitcoinclashes with many interests and will be subject to regulatory interference, which introduces many uncertainties about its future. Nevertheless, we are talking about a completely decentralized evolution and, as such, one that will be very difficult, if not impossible, to stop.

The fact that more and more relevant players believe in the future of bitcoin is simply a way of reinforcing the self-fulfilling prophecy that has been established around cryptocurrencies and the advantages offered by the use of an economic system which is not controlled by a specific entity, and instead by exclusively mathematical criteria and without any party being able to exercise speculative power.

In practice, it is becoming increasingly clear: it is not if, but when. MORE FOR YOUWhy Huawei’s New Update Is Seriously Bad News For Android UsersWhatsApp Users Suddenly Get This Surprise New Boost From FacebookWarning—Apple Suddenly Catches TikTok Secretly Spying On Millions Of iPhone Users

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here

Enrique Dans

Enrique Dans

Teaching Innovation at IE Business School since 1990, and now, hacking education as Senior Advisor for Digital Transformation at IE University. BSc (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela), MBA (Instituto de Empresa) and Ph.D. in Management Information Systems (UCLA).

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BitBoy Crypto

Subscribe to MMCrypto: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBkG…​ You guys all know my prediction for Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is going to $322K as long as it stays as bullish and volatile as it is right now. It’s definitely been a fun week for Bitcoin but how long this will continue for. Today we bringing on Chris from MMCrypto, one of the biggest crypto currency channels out there. And we gonna talk about where Bitcoin is gonna go and the immediate short term, the medium term, and the long term. 00:00​ Intro 01:41​ BTC Short term prediction 03:52​ Mid and long term predictions 10:13​ Trades Connect with Me & the BitSquad!

Join the BitSquad ➡️ http://t.me/BitSquad​ Join the BitBoy Lab ➡️ http://discord.BitBoy.Live​ Join BitSquad Traders ➡️ http://t.me/BitSquadTraders​ Join Me on Twitter ➡️ https://twitter.com/Bitboy_Crypto​ Join Me on Instagram ➡️ https://www.instagram.com/bitboy_crypto​ Join Me on TikTok ➡️ https://www.tiktok.com/@BitBoyCrypto​ Find deals on hardware wallets, trading indicators, exchanges & more. Find Crypto DEALS ➡️ https://bitboycrypto.com/deals​ All of our videos are strictly personal opinions. Please make sure to do your own research. Never take one person’s opinion for financial guidance. There are multiple strategies and not all strategies fit all people. Our videos ARE NOT financial advice.

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Bitcoin Can Collapse Completely, Says Agustín Carstens, Former Secretary of The Treasury

This article was translated from our Spanish edition using AI technologies. Errors may exist due to this process.

At the height of the cryptocurrency boom, the manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) , Agustín Carstens , warned about the dangers of investing in them. The former finance secretary warned that Bitcoin is increasingly vulnerable and could completely collapse .

Yesterday, January 27, during the policy seminar of the Hoover Institution , the Mexican economist said that Bitcoin is a speculative asset, not money .

“Investors should be aware that Bitcoin can completely crash. Scarcity and crypto alone are not enough to guarantee exchange, “ explained Carstens , adding that Bitcoin is increasingly vulnerable .

The also former governor of Banco de México , affirms that central banks must control the issuance and management of digital money . Consider that they have the financial structure to guarantee the stability of the cryptocurrencies .

“For digital money to exist, the central bank must play a fundamental role, guaranteeing the stability of the value, ensuring the elasticity of the aggregate supply of said money and overseeing the general security of the system. Such a system must not fail and cannot tolerate serious errors , ”Carstens said

pic.twitter.com/18523AdPeg– Bitcoin (@Bitcoin) January 29, 2021

The BIS manager said that other private stablecoin projects, such as Facebook’s , are more credible than Bitcoin , but need to be regulated.

“In general, private stablecoins cannot serve as the foundation for a sound monetary system ,” he said. “But to remain credible, they must be strictly regulated and supervised. They must build on the foundations and confidence that the existing central banks give them and, therefore, be part of the existing financial system .

For now, many countries are targeting Central Bank digital currencies (CBDC) . In fact, 86% of major central banks are actively exploring CBDCs , according to a recent BIS survey.

Carstens indicated that national CBDCs would be used in various ways, such as the transmission of monetary policy and the management of interest rates. He explained that they should be complementary to the existing cash system , as completely replacing all bank accounts and cash with digital money is “undesirable” and “unrealistic .”

By: Entrepreneur en Español Entrepreneur Staff

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Sam Dolke

00:00 Intro 00:28 Halving and Support explained 03:34 Analysis of the previous Bull run 05:31 Analysis of this Bull run 06:42 How to counter Pullbacks 09:00 Conclusion 10:15 Outro Bitcoin is now worth more than 41k and it just keeps on climbing. But is this growth sustainable? Is a pullback, correction or crash in front of our door? Unfortunately timing the market is impossible but we can look at historical data and trends to get a general idea of the possibilities. In this video we’re going to do a technical analysis and look at previous trends.

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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Surge to $146,000 in Long Term

JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees Bitcoin as a future competitor of gold as an asset class, with the long-term potential to reach $146,000, Bloomberg reports.

Why It Matters: It would be quite the climb for Bitcoin, which rallied to a record $34,000 before retreating a bit on Monday. But it’s a long way off, if anything. Private investment in Bitcoin would have to grow at a multiple of nearly five to match the investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins.

But a healthy future for Bitcoin depends on its volatility coming down to gold’s level, encouraging more institutional investment.

  • A group of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said this could be a “multiyear process.”

Key Numbers (From CoinMarketCap):

  1. Bitcoin’s Market Capitalization: $592 Billion
  2. Bitcoin’s Circulating Supply: 18,600,000 Tokens
  3. Bitcoin’s Current Price (9:00 a.m. ET): $31,701.10

As prices continue to improve and volatility appears to stabilize, more institutions and noted investors are getting involved or expressing interest. But a heated debate over Bitcoin remains:

  • “While some argue that the cryptocurrency offers a hedge against dollar weakness and inflation risk in a world awash with fiscal and monetary stimulus, others say retail investors and trend-following quant funds are pumping up an unsustainable bubble.”

The Future, For Now: JPMorgan anticipates headwinds for the digital currency, with indicators “like a buildup of speculative long positions and an increase in investment wallets holding small amounts of Bitcoin showing potential froth.”

Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $31,567 as of 10:31 a.m. in London. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index added 0.9%. On Monday, Bitcoin slid as much as 17%, the biggest drop since March, after breaching $34,000 for the first time over the weekend. The swings are a reminder of the famed volatility of the largest cryptocurrency, whose price has more than quadrupled over the past year.

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $146,000 in the long term as it competes with gold as an asset class, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bitcoin’s market capitalization of around $575 billion would have to rise by 4.6 times — for a theoretical price of $146,000 — to match the total private sector investment in gold via exchange-traded funds or bars and coins, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. But that outlook depends on the volatility of Bitcoin converging with that of gold to encourage more institutional investment, a process that will take some time, they said.

“A crowding out of gold as an ‘alternative’ currency implies big upside for Bitcoin over the long term,” the strategists wrote Monday. However, “a convergence in volatilities between Bitcoin and gold is unlikely to happen quickly and is in our mind a multiyear process, according to Bloomberg. This implies that the above-$146,000 theoretical Bitcoin price target should be considered as a long-term target, and thus an unsustainable price target for this year.”

More institutions and noted investors, from Paul Tudor Jones to Scott Minerd and Stan Druckenmiller, have either started allocating funds into Bitcoin or have said they’re open to doing so. While some argue that the cryptocurrency offers a hedge against dollar weakness and inflation risk in a world awash with fiscal and monetary stimulus, others say retail investors and trend-following quant funds are pumping up an unsustainable bubble.

For now, JPMorgan sees headwinds for the largest cryptocurrency, with indicators like a buildup of speculative long positions and an increase in investment wallets holding small amounts of Bitcoin showing potential froth. “The valuation and position backdrop has become a lot more challenging for Bitcoin at the beginning of the New Year,” the strategists wrote. “While we cannot exclude the possibility that the current speculative mania will propagate further pushing the Bitcoin price up toward the consensus region of between $50,000-$100,000, we believe that such price levels would prove unsustainable.”

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