Advertisements

China’s Richest 2019: King Of Beverages Zong Qinghou Aims To Revitalize Wahaha

When Zong Qinghou travels abroad, he likes to visit local supermarkets. The 74-year-old founder of China’s largest privately held beverage company Hangzhou Wahaha Group isn’t shopping for himself, but doing a little firsthand market research. For example, when Zong visited Singapore in October, he bought boxes of fruit-flavored beer. Staff back in China then study these samples to see if they could be imported into China, or adapted to local tastes.

“Every new product can be used as a reference,” says Zong in an exclusive interview with Forbes Asia on the sidelines of the Forbes Global CEO conference last month in Singapore. Zong, who is chairman of Wahaha, is now under pressure to come up with fresh product ideas to rekindle consumer interest in his company, that he’s spent more than three decades running.

Today In: Asia

uncaptioned

The tycoon, who was China’s richest man in 2010, 2012 and 2013, saw Wahaha’s sales slide from 78 billion yuan ($11 billion) in 2013 to 46 billion yuan in 2017 before rebounding slightly to 47 billion yuan last year. His ownership of the company still gives him a fortune of $8.2 billion, but he is no longer No. 1, ranking instead as China’s 31st richest person.

One of the main reasons for the decline, say analysts, is that Wahaha hasn’t kept pace with changing consumer tastes in China. Unlike their parents’ generation who grew up drinking Wahaha’s cheap but tasty products such as bottled water and milk drinks costing less than 2 yuan, shoppers today want to spend more for something innovative and new. “Wahaha is still very price-focused, and hasn’t captured the trading-up trend as well as it could have,” says Mark Tanner, founder of Shanghai-based consultancy China Skinny.

A Chinese worker checks bottles of Wahaha purified water on the assembly line at a factory in... [+] Yichang city, central China's Hubei province.

Aly Song/Reuters/Newscom

Zong is unfazed. He vows to lift sales by at least 50% next year, to 70 billion yuan. While he concedes that Wahaha’s products was once perceived as cheap and old-fashioned, he says he’s working to modernize his products. The company, whose name is meant to mimic the sound of a child’s laugh, has recently started a major upgrade. Packaging has gotten a makeover to use brighter and more stylish colors, while ingredients like nuts and quinoa have been added to new yogurt lines to appeal to healthier lifestyles. Wahaha has also expanded into nutritional tablets and meal replacement biscuits, which Zong says are in line with dieting trends. He also plans to increase the current number of 6,000 distributors to 10,000 by year end, to ensure better distribution to every corner of China.

Yet perhaps the most notable change is Zong’s willingness to experiment with social media and e-commerce. In 2014, he famously pronounced at a conference that e-commerce was disrupting China’s “real economy.” The company as a result did not have much of an online presence, even as e-commerce exploded across China. “I don’t think traditional sales channels will change much,” Zong says. “People need to enjoy life, and to enjoy life, they need to go outside instead of staying at home hooked on their smartphones.”

Zong, in fact, still expects most sales to take place in traditional brick-and-mortar stores. That said, Wahaha has started to experiment with digital marketing for its products. A series of videos on the popular app TikTok app shows users posting 15-second clips of themselves pronouncing Wahaha in various humorous ways. The clips have been viewed almost one million times.

Some analysts hope Wahaha can do more of such efforts. Jason Yu, a Shanghai-based general manager at research firm Kantar Worldpanel says, “It is very hard to get consumer attention today, and if you want to do that, you have to engage and interact with them nonstop.”

For example, Wahaha’s competitor in bottled water, Nongfu Spring, has gained market share in part because of innovative advertising. One was a campaign where each bottle of Nongfu Spring water gave the buyer the right to cast one vote online for their favorite candidate in a popular TV talent competition show. Nongfu Spring was number one in China’s bottled water market in 2018, with an 11% share versus Wahaha’s 4% share, according to Euromonitor.

Zong’s ambitions, however, reach beyond China. He wants to start producing and selling Wahaha-branded yogurt and milk beverages overseas, after noticing that some Wahaha products are being exported by third-party traders. In the last few years, Zong has visited Southeast Asia, and identified Indonesia and Vietnam as two locations for factories to produce for local markets. Zong says, however, he wants to find the right local partner first before he moves forward with any overseas expansion.

China, he says, will always be Wahaha’s biggest market. Consumption will continue to grow, he says, as the middle class expands and spends on everything from education to travel. “If we can firmly establish ourselves in this market of 1.4 billion people, we can grow very big,” he says.

Don’t discount Zong. He has overcome many challenges in his long career. The entrepreneur didn’t venture into business until 1987, when he was already in his 40s. He started by selling snacks out of a canteen inside a local school in his native Hangzhou, then start producing and distributing milk. In 1988, Zong launched a nutritional drink for children, which became a national hit. Three years later, he acquired a state-owned factory, with sales reaching 400 million yuan the following year.

One of his biggest challenges was a tumultuous partnership started in 1996 with France’s food and beverage giant Danone. After initial success, the two had a falling out, and Zong eventually agreed in 2009 to buy out Danone’s 51% stake in their various ventures for an undisclosed price, although one media outlet put it at roughly $380 million. “Only cooperation based on mutual benefits and mutual respect can last,” he says of the former partnership.

Then in September 2013, he faced another challenge when he was attacked by a knife-wielding man, disgruntled after Zong turned him down for a job. The attacker managed to cut the tendons and muscle on two of Zong’s fingers, but he was back at work just a few days later.

Another big challenge is succession. Zong’s management style is famously budget-conscious and detail-oriented. He often eats at the company canteen with staff, and is known to fly economy class. He personally approves the purchase of all new company cars.

Naturally, Zong has long been looking at his only child, daughter Kelly Zong, to replace him. She’s had plenty of experience, working at Wahaha since 2004. Now 37, the younger Zong has also tried her hand at entrepreneurship, launching a juice brand, KellyOne, three years ago. In 2017, she attempted to acquire the Hong Kong-listed candy firm China Candy, but was unable to acquire 50% of the company’s voting rights. Kelly said in a social media post at the time that the unsuccessful bid had been a “positive and constructive exploration.”

Kelly Zong Fuli, daughter of Wahaha Groups Chairman Zong Qinghou.

Imagine China/Newscom

Zong says he will hand over the reins to Kelly if she wants them. If not, he will groom professional management. “A lot of young people have studied abroad and have a broader vision, and they may not want to manage their parent’s business,” he says. “My daughter is overseeing some factories. Does she want to take on more? That I don’t know.” His move to do digital marketing, led by younger talent, was seen as a positive step towards a new generation having a greater role in the company.

Zong says there is still time to find good professional managers if Kelly wants to follow her own path. He says Wahaha is considering several for future leadership, without going into detail. He is also not ruling out an IPO, a move that would be a major move for the company down the path of diversifying management.

Whatever path he takes, Zong is clearly thinking about laying the foundations of sustainable success for Wahaha.

This story is part of Forbes’ coverage of China’s Richest 2019. See the full list here

I am a Beijing-based writer covering China’s technology sector. I contribute to Forbes, and previously I freelanced for SCMP and Nikkei. Prior to Beijing, I spent six months as an intern at TIME magazine’s Hong Kong office. I am a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University. Email: ywywyuewang@gmail.com Twitter: @yueyueyuewang

Source: China’s Richest 2019: King Of Beverages Zong Qinghou Aims To Revitalize Wahaha

994K subscribers
Zong Qinghou is the founder and chairman of Hangzhou Wahaha Group which is the leading beverage company in China. Zong was listed as China’s richest man in 2012. As an NPC deputy, Zong has submitted one motion and 12 suggestions this year. He said deputies have the responsibility to represent the ordinary people. CCTVNEWS reporter Su Yuting spoke with Zong to hear his opinion on China’s economic development. Subscribe us on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/CCTVNEWS… Download for IOS: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/cctvn… Download for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/de… Follow us on: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cctvnewschina Twitter: https://twitter.com/CCTVNEWS Google+: https://plus.google.com/+CCTVNEWSbeijing Tumblr: http://cctvnews.tumblr.com/ Weibo: http://weibo.com/cctvnewsbeijing

Advertisements

Chinese E-Commerce Giants Report Booming Singles Day Sales

A big screen shows the online sales for e-commerce giant Alibaba surpassed RMB 100 billion or US14 billion at 01:03:59 after the Nov. 11 Tmall Shopping Festival started midnight in Shanghai, China Monday, Nov. 11, 2019. (Chinatopix Via AP)

(BEIJING) — Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com reported a total of more than $50 billion in sales on Monday in the first half of Singles Day, an annual marketing event that is the world’s busiest online shopping day.

Singles Day began as a joke holiday created by university students in the 1990s as an alternative to Valentine’s Day for people without romantic partners. It falls on Nov. 11 because the date is written with four singles — “11 11.”

Alibaba, the world’s biggest e-commerce brand by total sales volume, adopted the day as a sales tool a decade ago. Rivals including JD.com and Suning joined in, offering discounts on goods from smartphones to travel packages.

E-commerce has grown rapidly in China due to a lack of traditional retailing networks and government efforts to promote internet use. Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu and other internet giants have expanded into consumer finance, entertainment and offline retailing.

On Monday, online retailers offered discounts on goods from craft beer to TV sets to health care packages.

Alibaba said sales by merchants on its platforms totaled 188.8 billion yuan ($27 billion) between midnight and noon. JD.com, the biggest Chinese online direct retailer, said sales reached 165.8 billion yuan ($23.8 billion) by 9 a.m.

Electronics retailer Suning said sales passed 1 billion yuan ($160 million) in the first minute after midnight. Dangdang, an online book retailer, said it sold 6.8 million copies in the first hour.

Alibaba kicked off the event with a concert Sunday night by Taylor Swift at a Shanghai stadium.

Chinese online spending is growing faster than retail overall but is weakening as economic growth slows and consumers, jittery about Beijing’s tariff war with Washington and possible losses, put off big purchases.

Online sales of goods rose 16.8% over a year earlier in the first nine months of 2019 to 5.8 trillion yuan ($825 billion), according to government data. That accounted for 19.5% of total consumer spending. Growth was down from an annual average of about 30% in recent years.

By JOE McDONALD

Source: Chinese E-Commerce Giants Report Booming Singles Day Sales

993K subscribers
Nov.11 was Singles’ Day in China, the country’s busiest online shopping day of the year. More than 35 billion RMB was spent on two online platforms, Tmall.com and Taobao.com, which are owned by China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba. A total of 170 million transactions were made during the day.

China Growth Nowhere Near Official Estimates, Says Morningstar

China’s third quarter growth rate has fallen to 6%, says Beijing. No it hasn’t. It’s more like 3%, says Morningstar’s China economics team led by Preston Caldwell in a report dated October 29.

While Donald Trump and his economic advisor Larry Kudlow try to convince Wall Street today that trade talks are going well and the two sides will still ink their so-called Phase 1 mini-deal this year, investors are noticing something awry in China. Companies are sourcing product elsewhere in modest, yet increasing numbers. China’s usual high fixed asset investment numbers are falling. Economic policy makers could be afraid of debt burdens and don’t want to overstimulate the economy. Growth is slowing. Industrial production is contracting.

To make matters worse, the full brunt of tariffs hasn’t quite been felt fully by China. The average incremental tariff rate increased to about 12% in the third quarter from about 9% in the second quarter. If Phase 1 talks result in no signed agreement anytime soon, Morningstar predicts it would send the average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports to over 20% by the first quarter of 2020.

The dollar/yuan exchange rate has helped offset some of the tariff costs. The yuan has weakened by about 5% since the end of the first quarter. For exporters, China is still cheap.

Today In: Money

The bulk of the third quarter decline was due to the consumer durables index component of the Morningstar proxy for measuring GDP. It contracted 4.1% from 3.8% growth in the second quarter. Morningstar analysts believe there is a chance that the locals may be temporarily pulling back on spending in anticipation for new government subsidies. Still, slowing durables consumption matches the trend in place since early 2017. And stimulus has been trickling in since.

Two of the other Morningstar proxy components that brought them to the 3% figure also saw a marked decline in the third quarter. Their power proxy index is now in line with the other index components after being a positive growth outlier for about two years.

But it appears the real drag that brought Morningstar’s number down to 3% is industrial production. Industrial profits are down 5.3% year over year versus August’s contraction of 2%.

“Neither a surprise nor a market mover,” says Brendan Ahern, CIO of KraneShares in New York. “U.S. tariffs are still exacting their toll on export-focused manufacturers.”

The industrial sector slowdown might also be understated, especially if China is over-estimating inflation, Morningstar report authors warned.

Meanwhile, China’s dependence on credit to sustain economic growth has so far thwarted Xi Jinping’s attempts to convince the provincial governments to deleverage. Debt growth remains above nominal GDP growth rates.

“We’re not surprised that China’s economy has failed to recover, given that credit growth stalled after a slight rebound in the first quarter,” Morningstar analysts wrote.

China-bound investors will be watching for solid Singles Day sales on November 11. If they disappoint, emerging market funds who are mostly overweight China could finally start shifting positions.

China’s A-shares have been outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index all year. Only Russia, as measured by the VanEck Russia (RSX) exchange traded fund, is beating the CSI-300, an index tracking mainland China equities listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

Official consumer spending showed a mixed picture in the third quarter. Nominal retail sales grew 7.8% year over year in September versus a high of 9.8% growth back in June. Real retail sales fell only 30 basis points from August.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ household survey data suggests that most of the spending went towards education, entertainment, and “miscellaneous services.”

Morningstar said that their own sampling of alternative consumer sales data such as box office revenue, telecom revenue, and air passenger volume suggests tepid consumer services growth. China’s number crunchers are more upbeat on that and Morningstar’s team is not, which brings their forecast so much lower than official figures.

E-commerce giant Alibaba – the company behind Singles Day – announced this week that Taylor Swift will be performing at the Mercedes Benz Arena in Shanghai where the shopping spree will have their telethon-like tally of sales. If Swift can hype Singles Day shoppers to spend, the China consumer bull narrative will remain in tact. If she fails, and Singles Day ends up being mediocre, all bets are on for more stimulus in the months ahead out of Beijing.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

Spent 20 years as a reporter for the best in the business, including as a Brazil-based staffer for WSJ. Since 2011, I focus on business and investing in the big emerging markets exclusively for Forbes. My work has appeared in The Boston Globe, The Nation, Salon and USA Today. Occasional BBC guest. Former holder of the FINRA Series 7 and 66. Doesn’t follow the herd.

Source: China Growth Nowhere Near Official Estimates, Says Morningstar

291K subscribers
China released third-quarter GDP figures on Friday showing the economy grew 6.0% from a year ago — the lowest in at least 27-1/2 years, according to Reuters records. CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports.

Forget China—Is This The Real Reason Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, And Ripple’s XRP Bounced?

Bitcoin has swung wildly this week, as many had expected it to, with it losing $1,000 per bitcoin a few days ago before suddenly shooting back up earlier today.

The bitcoin price is now at over $9,000 per bitcoin after dropping to lows of almost $7,000 on Thursday–and heading fast towards the psychological $10,000 mark, according to the latest prices from Luxembourg-based exchange Bitstamp.

Elsewhere, other major cryptocurrencies ethereum, litecoin, Ripple’s XRP, and bitcoin cash rallied between 7% and 23%, adding billions to the value of the combined cryptocurrency market.

Many bitcoin and cryptocurrency market analysts pointed to comments made by China’s president President Xi Jinping that the country should “seize the opportunity” of bitcoin’s blockchain technology as the reason behind bitcoin’s rally.

China banned bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017 and some took Xi’s blockchain comments as a sign the country could ease bitcoin and crypto restrictions.

Today In: Money

“We must take the blockchain as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies,” Xi reportedly said, speaking at the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in Beijing.

“[We must] clarify the main direction, increase investment, focus on a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.”

However, Xi’s comments, which referred only to blockchain technology and not to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, might not have been the driver behind bitcoin’s recovery.

Following bitcoin’s sudden drop earlier this week, bitcoin and crypto investors feared the worst wasn’t over the for the market.

Facebook’s chief executive Mark Zuckerberg was savaged by U.S. senators over his plans for a bitcoin rival dubbed libra and crypto investors are fretting there could be a global crackdown on bitcoin and other digital tokens.

Elsewhere, technical data pointed to a so-called “death cross” for bitcoin, while the Fear & Greed Index slumped and a Twitter reading of investor temperature was poor.

This sentiment slump meant investors bet against the bitcoin price, predicting it would move lower.

When the bitcoin price recovered a couple of hundred dollars per bitcoin in just a few minutes, some $150 million worth of short positions on the Seychelles-based BitMEX crypto exchange were liquidated, according to bitcoin and cryptocurrency analytics provider Skew.

This triggered what’s known as a “short squeeze,” where an asset rapidly increases in value due to short sellers trying to cover their positions, resulting in buying volume that drives the price up.

Follow me on Twitter.

I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported on how technology is changing business, political trends, and the latest culture and lifestyle. I have covered the rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrency since 2012 and have charted its emergence as a niche technology into the greatest threat to the established financial system the world has ever seen and the most important new technology since the internet itself. I have worked and written for CityAM, the Financial Times, and the New Statesman, amongst others. Follow me on Twitter @billybambrough or email me on billyATbillybambrough.com. Disclosure: I occasionally hold some small amount of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Source: Forget China—Is This The Real Reason Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, And Ripple’s XRP Bounced?

12K subscribers
Why do you think Bitcoin dumped over the weekend? Leave a comment below and share your reasoning! ———————————————————————————————————- ⚡Connect With Me! Blog Posts/Updates/Insights/Thoughts: https://goo.gl/ngBDjd Updates Of Coins Ready To Break Out: https://goo.gl/3ZfehK Public Telegram Group: https://t.me/bullandbearcrypto Twitter.com: http://twitter.com/_bullandbear ———————————————————————————————————- ⚡Support The Channel SUPPORT From As Little As $1 & Get EXCLUSIVE EXTRA’S Patreon: http://patreon.com/bullandbear DONATE BTC – 1BFEFPG6ngis1J8WcoSp72jPAxqsNtmPJ3 ETH – 0x24C9b9555DD741CD39A004b758eC691A0e6Ea0bD LTC – LQnpKsvANZZe9ZoX6eMQpejxgogQs1kGpA DASH – Xi1Z2wVeCRGRtX4PvLUs4C8oVo1c7b22yr SECURE YOUR CRYPTO OFFLINE – Ledger Wallet: Grab A Ledger Hardware Wallet: https://www.ledgerwallet.com/r/df82 JOIN COINBASE – Buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, & Litecoin Buy Bitcoin & Get $10usd FREE by joining COINBASE https://www.coinbase.com/join/54cb9ac… JOIN BINANCE – Buy Your Altcoins Looking to trade altcoins? I recommend BINANCE https://www.binance.com/register.html… JOIN KUCOIN – Get Up And Coming Coins Before They List On Big Exchanges https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=1g62w TRADING VIEW Want to look at the charts and do technical analysis. I reommend TRADING VIEW http://tradingview.go2cloud.org/aff_c… ———————————————————————————————————- ⚡Disclaimer: Read the Bull & Bear Financial Disclaimer Here: http://www.bullandbearcrypto.com/disc…

 

Food-Delivery Tycoon Adds $2.4 Billion To Fortune By Beating Out Alibaba

In the battle for China’s massive food-delivery market, Alibaba is in the unfamiliar position of falling behind its rival. The behemoth that’s feeding more of the country’s hundreds of millions of hungry customers is Meituan Dianping.

Led by billionaire founder Wang Xing, Beijing-based Meituan recently solidified its share of the country’s $84 billion food delivery market at a record 65%, well ahead of Alibaba’s Ele.me at 27.4%, according to consultancy and data provider Trustdata. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have soared 80% this year after it reported a surprise profit in the second quarter.

The stock defied the broader market decline in the city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index, which tumbled 9% since July amid ongoing anti-government protests in the city over the now suspended extradition bill. Wang, who derives the bulk of his fortune from his stake in Meituan, saw his net worth increase from $3.8 billion in the beginning of 2019 to $6.2 billion.

“A lot of people are now positive on Meituan, because they have proven that there is money to be made in the food delivery business,” says Wang Xiaoyan, a Shanghai-based analyst at 86 Research. “There will be fluctuations in its profitability margin, but it won’t bleed as much money as before.”

The company’s results were attributed to its ability to provide better services and the effectiveness of its subsidy strategy. It’s been more aggressive than Alibaba in inking exclusive delivery partnerships with restaurants, while boosting delivery time and reducing costs by matching order data and grouping more deliveries in one trip.

This has allowed users to stick to Meituan’s platform, even though Alibaba has tried to convince them to switch by doling out hundreds of millions of dollars in coupons and meal subsidies. David Dai, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Bernstein Research, says Meituan’s user loyalty is much stronger than Alibaba had initially expected.

“People may say that they are price sensitive, but not everyone would open two apps and compare prices before ordering a meal,” he says. “Meituan has more restaurants, more users and higher delivery efficiency, and this has formed a positive cycle.”

Now, in the face of reduced competition, Meituan is seeking to generate revenue from advertising on its platform, which boasts of 422.6 million annual active users. Restaurants can now pay to place banner ads, or have their offers displayed higher up in users’ search results.

More On Forbes: Alibaba Buys NetEase’s Kaola In $2 Billion Deal, Caixin Say

Although Meituan’s market leadership will be hard to displace, Alibaba has already signaled that it won’t give up easily. Analysts say the e-commerce giant views food delivery as essential to its wider strategy, because it’s a high-frequency service that can be embedded in the Alibaba ecosystem to promote complimentary services like online payments. To chip away its rival’s dominance, Alibaba has been focusing on lower-tier cities, which are Meituan’s traditional strongholds.

“If Ele.me is determined to launch another price war, then Meituan has no choice but to follow up,” says Steven Zhu, a Shanghai-based analyst at research firm Pacific Epoch.

And this may well be the case towards year end, when the e-commerce giant launches its Singles Day shopping bonanza and uses discounts to attract shoppers. What’s more, Meituan may also have to pay more to couriers at that time, because cold weather in the winter season usually leads to increased delivery fees. Still, analysts say it has enough room for growth, which could lead to sustained margin improvements.

“Profitability improvement will come more from revenue growth instead of cost reductions,” says Bernstein Research’s Dai. “They can boost their take rate and improve advertising, and the space for revenue growth is still pretty big.”

I am a Beijing-based writer covering China’s technology sector. I contribute to Forbes, and previously I freelanced for SCMP and Nikkei. Prior to Beijing, I spent six months as an intern at TIME magazine’s Hong Kong office. I am a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University. Email: ywywyuewang@gmail.com Twitter: @yueyueyuewang

Source: Food-Delivery Tycoon Adds $2.4 Billion To Fortune By Beating Out Alibaba

My life changed when I discovered food delivery in China – mainly, I got a bit lazier, but it’s just so easier and there’s a ton of tasty western and Chinese food available. Some of the food isn’t even possible to get unless you order it through one of China’s food delivery apps. Right now, there are 2 that are very popular: ele.me and Mei Tuan Wai Mai. I prefer Meituan Waimai, and I breakdown how to use it in this video. I’ll show you how to setup a profile, how to order food, and I’ll even attempt to follow the delivery driver from the restaurant to my home. This is the video you need to watch if you want to learn how to get food delivered in China. Mei Tuan Wai Mai can be downloaded here: http://waimai.meituan.com/mobile/down… Once installed, follow the instructions in the video to setup a profile that includes your address for quick delivery. Tune in Tuesdays and Thursdays at around 3PM EST for new videos, including my series Chengdu: City of Gastronomy (https://goo.gl/kSSxw2), where I randomly pick a card that has a Sichuan dish on it and I hit the city to find it and try it. There’s so much good food in Chengdu, Asia’s first ever city to be named a UNESCO City of Gastronomy. —/// ABOUT ME \\\— I live in China and am constantly exploring and traveling the country and other parts of Asia. Subscribe to my channel to watch more adventures… and to learn a bit about food, cultures, and more. If you’re looking for more videos about living in China: https://goo.gl/e2kSVz —————————————————————————————– \\ Subscribe: http://bit.ly/2e8BCZv \\ Website: http://itchyfeetonthecheap.com/ \\ Email: itchyfeetonthecheap@gmail.com \\ Instagram: http://instagram.com/itchyfeetonthecheap \\ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/itchyfeetont… \\ Twitter: https://twitter.com/itchyfeetcheap —————————————————————————————– 🎵 MUSIC 🎶 Music by Andrew Rothschild Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgkz… Bandcamp: https://andrewrothschild.bandcamp.com/ Itunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/an… Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/arothsmusic/

Will China Take Bitcoin To $20,000?

The best way to lose money in the markets is to sell when you are scared and buy/hold when you are happy with your profits.

So it was for me a couple of days ago when bitcoin (BTC) was $9,500. I so wanted to close out 25% of my BTC and leave myself to run the rest, having taken out the cost of my position in cash and thereby run the rest as free carry. You can spin all sorts of narrative why that’s a smart idea or why that’s a dumb one, but the fall was the impetus and the desire to flee a normal human emotion. It is an instinct that traders and especially investors need to control.

Luckily, I’ve been playing the high risk game long enough to wait. When I want to sell an investment solely because it has dumped I wait at least two or three days before making such a move. If and when bitcoin hits $13,500, I will want to load up on more but I will likewise stop myself from buying into bullishness.

So I did nothing with my bitcoin and this happens:

Bitcoin jumped again on Monday

Credit: ADVFN

Once again doing nothing is the best move you can make with a good position.

So in my model, this is China and this is down to the trade war.

Today In: Money

When bitcoin jumps, something bad has just happened in the U.S./China trade talks. We don’t know what it is, but soon enough we will find out.

Well today we get a Trump tweet and up BTC goes again. Yesterday, what happened? I guess whatever it was that made bitcoin pop, also left the U.S. president even more incandescent than normal.

This is still a theory, but it keeps on playing out. So what to do? In the short term the question is, is the China situation going to continue for long?

Continuation of the trade war means BTC up. The longer the war runs, the higher bitcoin will go.

For me it’s likely that the trade war is going to run and run. Both sides can’t buckle and like most wars, sides are prepared to take big losses, not to lose. This means holding through a rollercoaster ride of developments.

If we are in for a trade war of attrition, bitcoin will be above £20,000 by Christmas or sooner.

What we also have here if this theory is right is a gift to the extra greedy. When bitcoin flies, short the Dow, because when BTC flies, for no apparent reason, it is a high probability that something Dow slapping will come out of the trade war in a day or two’s time. While information may flow more slowly in the U.S., whatever goes wrong will nonetheless hit the U.S. equities market soon enough, but meanwhile the bad news will hit the Asia bitcoin market much sooner, about as long as it takes for the participants to get out of their meetings and past the revolving doors.

BTC down on Monday, should also give Dow up on a Tuesday and vice versa. Bitcoin is the gift that keeps on giving to traders.

Gold and the whole platinum group metals (PGM) will follow but at a much more refined and subdued pace; bitcoin delivering another leading signal to the stacker community or any trader that wants to play the dangerous game of levered commodities.

Signals like this don’t come by very often and can’t last for long, but while the stakes are in trillion dollar scale, quite a few million dollar crumbs are going to be left lying around the table.

Be among the first to get important crypto and blockchain news with Forbes Crypto Confidential, a free weekly e-letter delivered to your inbox. Sign up today.

Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors website ADVFN.com and author of Be Rich, The Game in Wall Street and Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginner’s Guide.

In 2018, Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards.

I am the CEO of stocks and investment website ADVFN . As well as running Europe and South America’s leading financial market website I am a prolific financial writer. I wrote a stock column for WIRED – which described me as a ‘Market Maven’ – and am a regular columnist for numerous financial publications around the world. I have written for titles including: Working Money, Active Trader, SFO and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in the US and have written for pretty much every UK national newspaper. In the last few years I have become a financial thriller writer and have just had my first non-fiction title published: 101 ways to pick stock market winners. Find me here on US Amazon. You’ll also see me regularly on CNBC, CNN, SKY, Business News Network and the BBC giving my take on the markets.

Intelligent Investing is a contributor page dedicated to the insights and ideas of Forbes Investor Team. Forbes Investor Team is comprised of thought leaders in the areas of money, investing and markets.

Source: Will China Take Bitcoin To $20,000?

Chinese government efforts to crush Bitcoin continue with a proposed mining ban, adding to the raft of anti crypto legislations in force in the country, but much like Bitcoin, Chinese buyers just don’t care. Sources https://cointelegraph.com/news/chines… https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch… https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/04/04/bi… https://news.bitcoin.com/russian-bank… Free Cryptocurrency Course – https://www.thecryptolark.org/ RECOMMENDED EXCHANGES & WALLETS GET FREE CRYPTO ABRA – GET $25 IN BTC – (US bank deposits or AMEX)- https://invite.abra.com/p9lwV0WqCR COINBASE – GET $10 Free Bitcoin on sign up! https://bit.ly/2zqeVfV LIQUID – GET $10 FREE QASH (verify & make $100 trade) – https://www.liquid.com?affiliate=Gtrf… TOP EXCHANGES BINANCE – #1 Crypto Exchange https://www.binance.com/?ref=10192350 BINANCE JE – BUY CRYPTO IN POUNDS & EURO https://www.binance.je/?ref=35019746 KUCOIN – Awesome For Low Cap Gems – https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=18a8f CERTIFIED CRYPTOCURRENCY BROKERAGE CALEB & BROWN – Brokerage – Trade OTC like the big guys https://bit.ly/2Feq8F6 TAKE YOUR SECURITY SERIOUSLY – GET A HARDWARE WALLET LEDGER NANO https://www.ledgerwallet.com/r/6877 TREZOR – https://shop.trezor.io?a=Aw902Rsted LEARN TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS TRADER COBB 10% OFF CODE THELARK10 – https://tradercobb.com/?ref=169 SOCIAL MEDIA – These are my only accounts, beware of scammers! TWITTER twitter.com/TheCryptoLark FACEBOOK facebook.com/TheCryptoLark TELEGRAM GROUP t.me/thecryptolark TELEGRAM HANDLE @cryptolark STEEMIT steemit.com/@larksongbird D-TUBE d.tube/#!/c/larksongbird BACKGROUND ART BY Josie Bellini – https://josie.io/ PODCAST – find me on I-tunes “Crypto Waves” https://player.fm/series/crypto-waves… CONTACT E-mail thecryptolark@gmail.com with business or event enquiries. DISCLAIMER Everything expressed here is my opinion and not official investment advice – please do your own research before risking your own money. This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which is not always specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available for research or academic purposes. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this video is distributed without profit, for research and educational purposes. Thanks for watching; please like, subscribe, and share if you found this useful! #bitcoin #crypto #ethereum #cryptocurrency #neo #elastos #litecoin #eos #ripple #ontology #monero #stellarlumens #cardano #nem #dash #ethereumclassic #vechain #tezos #zcash #dogecoin

Alibaba, Tencent, Five Others To Receive First Chinese Government Cryptocurrency

1.jpg

China’s central bank will launch a state-backed cryptocurrency and issue it to seven institutions in the coming months, according to a former employee of one of the institutions who is now an independent researcher. Paul Schulte, who worked as global head of financial strategy for China Construction Bank until 2012, says the largest bank in the world, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the second largest bank in the world, his former employer, the Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China; two of China’s largest financial technology companies, Alibaba and Tencent; and Union Pay, an association of Chinese banks, will receive the cryptocurrency.

A separate source, who’s involved in the development of the cryptocurrency, dubbed DC/EP (Digital Currency/Electronic Payments), confirmed that the seven institutions would be receiving the new asset when it launches, adding that an eighth institution could also be among the first tier of recipients. The source declined to provide the name of the additional company. Speaking under terms of anonymity, the source, who previously worked for the Chinese government, confirmed that the technology behind the cryptocurrency has been ready since last year and that the cryptocurrency could launch as soon as November 11, China’s busiest shopping day, known as Singles Day.

At the time of launch, the recipient institutions will then be responsible for dispersing the cryptocurrency to 1.3 billion Chinese citizens and others doing business in the renminbi, China’s fiat currency, according to the source. The source added that the central bank hopes the currency will eventually be made available to spenders in the United States and elsewhere through relationships with correspondent banks in the West. “That’s the plan, but that won’t happen right away,” the source said.

The plan to use a diverse set of China’s trusted intuitions to disperse the cryptocurrency is reminiscent of a number of other ideas currently percolating around the world. For instance, Facebook’s planned libra cryptocurrency will be backed by a basket of currencies issued by central banks with support from companies like Mastercard and Uber in the United States, Vodaphone in England and Mercado Pago in Argentina. And last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney floated the idea of a new currency backed by a number of central banks to replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.

What sets China’s DC/EP apart from libra and Carney’s “synthetic hegemonic currency” (SHC), according to Shulte, is that while libra is little more than early-stage computer code and the SHC doesn’t appear to have gone much further than Carney’s mind, the Chinese cryptocurrency is ready to launch. “China is barreling forward on reforms and rolling out the cryptocurrency,” says Schulte, who now runs an eponymous bank research firm. “It will be the first central bank to do so.”

At the time of publication, neither the People’s Bank of China nor any of the seven institutions mentioned by Schulte had responded to Forbes requests to confirm or deny his claim. However, the two-tiered strategy, where the central bank creates the currency and others distribute it, aligns with previously unreported statements made by Mu Changchun, deputy director of the Paying Division of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the new head of China’s cryptocurrency research lab. In a speech on August 10 at the China Finance 40 Forum, since revised and posted on the PBOC’s WeChat channel, Mu described the central bank’s “two-tiered” system, wherein the bank would create the cryptocurrency and a small group of trusted commercial businesses would “pay the central bank 100% in full” to be allowed to distribute it.

In addition to preventing regional banks and other organizations from being disintermediated, Mu said the two-tiered system is designed to “curb” public demand for other cryptographic assets, consolidate China’s national currency sovereignty, ensure that the central bank maintains control over monetary policy affecting the currency, increase the likelihood of people using the currency, distribute the risk of having all the authority directly in the hands of the central bank and encourage competition between the organizations that receive the cryptocurrency.

“This dual delivery system is suitable for our national conditions,” said Mu. “It can not only use existing resources to mobilize the enthusiasm of commercial banks but also smoothly improve the acceptance of the digital currency.”

The composition of the organizations Schulte says will receive the DC/EP also aligns with Mu’s comments. Later in his speech, Mu added that only after the technical specifications for the DC/EP were completed in 2018 did the central bank realize the similarity between its design and that of libra, the cryptocurrency being developed by Facebook and about 30 other early-stage partners.

One key difference, according to Mu, is that while libra is being designed to handle 1,000 transactions per second, the DC/EP was designed to handle 300,000 transactions per second. For context, Mu added that during last year’s Singles Day the peak volume of all transactions in China was 92,771 transactions per second, dwarfing what the other platforms could support, but well within the DC/EP specifications. “At present, we belong to a state of horse racing,” Mu said according to the translation.

How Blockchain Went From Bitcoin To Big Business| 37:20

The DC/EP can achieve this kind of volume only because it is not a “pure blockchain architecture,” according to Mu, and therefore it doesn’t need to wait for groups of transactions to settle in a block. Like other permissioned blockchains that not anyone can use, the DC/EP is centrally managed, in this case by the central bank, meaning the digital currency remains a liability of the bank and the debtor/creditor relationship is unchanged, according to Mu. Also, instead of using an algorithm to limit supply, like bitcoin, Mu says the PBoC itself will control supply. Crucially, Mu says, the DC/EP is being designed to replace the physical notes and coins in circulation, not the renminbi sitting in bank accounts in a digital form.

“The central bank’s digital currency can be circulated as easily as cash,” said Mu. “Which is conducive to the circulation and internationalization of the renminbi.”

Whether anyone outside China would actually use a digital renminbi for transactions in their own country is unclear. As the Bank of England governor’s comments about replacing the U.S. dollar indicate, much of the world is tired of having their financial stability tied to the United States’ monetary system. But China may not be the best alternative. Earlier this month, as part of the escalating trade war between the United States and China, U.S. President Trump accused China of being a “currency manipulator.” After China’s renminbi fell to its lowest in 11 years, hitting 6.9225 renminbi per dollar on August 5, according to a Financial Times report, it has recovered significantly, trading at 7.15 renminbi per dollar today. While China has denied the charge and called the U.S. “protectionist” in a press statement, the perception of manipulation could be harmful to broader adoption of a digital currency linked to the renminbi.

In December 2017, another country accused of devaluing its currency, Venezuela, revealed plans for its own cryptocurrency, backed by oil and called the petro. After much hullabaloo, the currency somewhat officially launched in 2018, but it isn’t available on most international exchanges because of a U.S. embargo and has been almost impossible to accurately value. Another obstacle to adoption could be uncertainty about the benefits of a technology that’s intended to replace fiat currency but is still under centralized control. While it’s obvious that any central bank wishing to more closely observe how citizens are using a cryptocurrency would prefer a transparent ledger like the bitcoin blockchain, which makes transactions easily traceable, most of the benefits to users of current blockchains, such as instant settlement and digital transactions without the need of a middleman, could be undermined by central control.

One person who’s not concerned about the obstacles to adoption of China’s cryptocurrency is Charles Liu, chairman of HAO International, a private equity firm investing over $700 million in Chinese growth companies. After largely focusing on solar, organic fertilizer, and wastewater treatment technologies since 2012, Liu says he is an angel investor in “the first blockchain company to be able to sign an official contract with the People’s Bank” of China.

Liu declined to reveal the name of the firm or its technology but lent support to Mu’s comments about the potential benefits to businesses using China’s cryptocurrency. In addition to being a more efficient way to track money laundering, bribery and other transactions, Liu says, the cryptocurrency will give banks increased confidence in the creditworthiness of borrowers, let merchants receive payments instantly and lower transaction fees. While Liu says that banks in the United States have been resistant to such improvements that eat away at their bottom line, he adds that China doesn’t have that problem, because the government owns the banks.

“What will facilitate commercial transactions and enhance efficiency, the central government decides and they go ahead and do it,” says Liu, adding that “China’s strategic plan is to integrate more closely with the rest of the world. Cryptocurrency is just one of the means to have a more internationalized renminbi. It’s all strategic. It’s all long term.”

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip.

I report on how blockchain and cryptocurrencies are being adopted by enterprises and the broader business community. My coverage includes the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, and extends to non-cryptocurrency applications of blockchain in finance, supply chain management, digital identity and a number of other use cases. Previously, I was a staff reporter at blockchain news site, CoinDesk, where I covered the increasing willingness of enterprises to explore how blockchain could make their work more efficient and in some cases, unnecessary. I have been covering blockchain since 2011, been published in the New Yorker, and been nationally syndicated by American City Business Journals. My work has been published in Blockchain in Financial Markets and Beyond by Risk Books and I am regularly cited in industry research reports. Since 2009 I’ve run Literary Manhattan, a 501 (c) (3) non-profit organization dedicated to showing Manhattan’s rich literary heritage.

Source: https://www.forbes.com

China’s central bank is reportedly on the verge of launching a national digital currency. Investigative Journalist Ben Swann joins Scottie Nell Hughes to discuss the implications. He argues that at some point every country will have its own digital currency. And that there’s “nothing attractive” about such currencies as they’re no better than traditional government-backed fiat currency. #NVHughes #QuestionMore #RTAmerica Find RT America in your area: http://rt.com/where-to-watch/ Or watch us online: http://rt.com/on-air/rt-america-air/ Like us on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/RTAmerica Follow us on Twitter http://twitter.com/RT_America

Is This Really A Currency War Or Just A Tantrum?

Since the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowed the yuan to surpass the dreaded level of 7 to the dollar on August 11, rivers of ink have flowed citing a new matter of contention between the U.S. and China, namely using currencies to gain competitiveness or, more simply, a “currency war.”

To describe the events as a currency war may seem logical because another type of “war” between the U.S. and China, namely the trade war, has been on everybody’s mind for the past year and a half. Moreover, the Trump administration itself has continued this game by classifying China as a “manipulator” of its currency immediately after this latest devaluation.

In the same way as the U.S. Treasury is not following its own script when classifying China as a currency manipulator, neither should we think of the yuan mini-devaluation as China initiating a currency war with the U.S. The reason is simple: the yuan–which is not convertible–cannot afford a war with the dollar, nor can the U.S. Federal Reserve control its currency so as to use it as a weapon against China.

In other words, neither of the two rivals have the instruments to successfully engage in a currency war against each other. Starting with the dollar, there is no doubt that its value is determined by the market, as it could not be otherwise being the reserve currency of a world still governed by flexible exchange regimes for major currencies.

The Fed can influence the dollar with expansive or restrictive monetary policies, but there are many other factors that it and the Treasury simply cannot control. One important factor is risk aversion: the more the Trump administration tightens the screws on China and, thereby increases the risk of recession globally, the more the dollar appreciates, contrary to what Trump wants.

Moving to the yuan, the PBOC is much closer to determining its value than the Fed can for the dollar, as it retains control on capital flows and does not need to intervene in a highly liquid forex market like that of the dollar. Nevertheless, the reality is that capital is ubiquitous, so capital controls will never be completely effective.

In other words, the value of the yuan is not exempt from the forces of demand and supply, nor is its value in the medium term, no matter what the PBOC may opt to do on a specific date or period. Considering the yuan’s mini-devaluation, the beginning of a currency war is a mistake for one more very important reason. The PBOC has accommodated market pressure by devaluing while central banks tend to move against the market during currency wars.

It’s true, though, that the timing of the devaluation could mislead us towards the idea of a China-initiated currency war because it happened right after the U.S. announcement of additional import tariffs on Chinese products.

More than a war, we should see this reaction as a tantrum of Chinese policy makers facing additional pressure from the U.S. Besides, as happens for every tantrum, its consequences may not be the desired ones as such mini-devaluation will only prompt more capital outflows from China, undoing part of the monetary stimulus that the Chinese central bank has been carrying out for more than a year to sustain economic growth. In other words, it will not help China to grow, but rather the opposite.

Thus, it is important to distinguish between a war and a tantrum. In the former you control your weapons, in the latter you do not.

I’m the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. I also serve as a senior fellow at European think-tank BRUEGEL and am a non-resident research fellow at Madrid-based political think tank Real Instituto Elcano. I am also is an adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and member of the advisory board of Berlin-based China think-tank MERICS, an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as well as a member of the board of the Hong Kong Forum and cofounder of Bright Hong Kong. I hold a Ph.D. in economics from George Washington University and have published extensively in refereed journals and books. I’m also very active in international media as well as social media. As recognition of my leadership thoughts, I was recently nominated TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn.

Source: Is This Really A Currency War Or Just A Tantrum?

China allowed its currency to fall below the key 7 yuan-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade. CNBC’s Eunice Yoon joins “Squawk Box” with the details.

With Currency Manipulator Label, China Trade War Moves Into Unchartered Waters

Last week’s announcement by Trump of more tariffs coming for everything shipped to the U.S. from China and Monday’s move by Beijing to allow for a weaker yuan begins Act III in the trade war.

Here’s the plot twist:

Treasury just hit China with currency manipulator status after market hours on Monday. It came at a time when nothing was trading. Investors were stuck in the Twilight Zone. Tuesday morning is going to be a madhouse rush for “sell China” orders by the algos. Wait for it.

As one hedge fund manager told me, “we’ve just thrown gasoline on the fire.”

Currency manipulator status gives Beijing less wiggle room because if they weaken the yuan to make up for tariffs, tariffs will likely go up to compensate.

We are in unchartered waters. At risk is what amounts to sanctions on key U.S. commodities like soybeans and pork by the Chinese government, and political risk involving Hong Kong as civil unrest continues there, putting its special trade status in the crosshairs of a China-bashing American Congress.

President Trump told reporters last week that he figured China would depreciate the yuan in response to his plan to hike tariffs to 10% on the remaining balance of China imports by Sept 1.

In isolation, a 10% tariff on $300 billion in combination with a 10% yuan depreciation would be functionally equivalent to Chinese households writing a check for $30 billion to the U.S. Treasury. “Trump may not have gotten Mexico to pay for its border wall, but he is getting China to pay (the government) for its tariff wall,” says China bear Brian McCarthy, chief strategist for Macrolens, a big picture investment research firm.

Currency manipulator status makes the trade war worse for China.

Meaningful and enduring negative feedback about China will lead to extreme financial market volatility in Asia, especially in China’s mainland equity market where a gambler’s approach to trading by the dominant retailer investor class there might cash out. And why not? China’s mainland stock indexes are up over 20% this year and this may be seen as the time to take money off the table.

Short sellers shouldn’t discount the possibility of the People’s Bank of China pumping money into the A-shares this week.

It’s too early to start expecting widespread defaults on China’s corporate dollar-denominated debt (which some firms estimate to be around $800 billion). A default would deal a harsh blow to foreign investors who have been big buyers of Chinese bonds as that market opens up and joins the major indexes.

The transmission mechanism from yuan devaluation to global securities is expressed more obviously through Europe and other emerging markets, especially those heavily linked to China — such as South Korea and Brazil. Both currencies had an ugly looking chart on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Fed can potentially isolate the U.S. economy from any economic fallout by cutting rates. Though this opens up a whole other can of worms, namely rates sinking to zero in the event of a recession.

The yuan settled at 7.05 to the dollar today after the central bank set the daily rate at just over 6.9 to the dollar. The currency is allowed to trade within 4% of that daily fixed rate. The yuan is now at its weakest level in over 10 years.

“These moves represent a significant escalation in the trade war,” says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a global financial advisory firm.

“There is a specific logic and order of operations with respect to the tit-for tat retaliation likely to play out that will not result in longer-term inflation, but will instead create conditions for deflation and negative nominal interest rates along the U.S. maturity spectrum if a longer-term trade compromise cannot be reached,” he says.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

I’ve spent 20 years as a reporter for the best in the business, including as a Brazil-based staffer for WSJ. Since 2011, I focus on business and investing in the big emerging markets exclusively for Forbes. My work has appeared in The Boston Globe, The Nation, Salon and USA Today. Occasional BBC guest. Former holder of the FINRA Series 7 and 66. Doesn’t follow the herd.

Source: With Currency Manipulator Label, China Trade War Moves Into Unchartered Waters

Trade War Is Hiding China’s Big Problems

uncaptioned

Getty

The ongoing US-China trade war is a distraction from China’s big problems: the blowing of multiple bubbles and the country’s soaring debt, which will eventually kill economic growth.

It happened in Japan in the 1980s. And it’s happening in China nowadays.
The trade war is one of China’s problem that dominates social media these days. It’s blamed for the slow-down in the country’s economic growth, since its economy continues to rely on exports. And it has crippled the ability of its technology companies to compete in global markets.
But it isn’t China’s only problem. The country’s manufacturers have come up with ways to minimize its impact, as evidenced by recent export data. And it will be solved once the US and China find a formula to save face and appease nationalist sentiment on both ends.
One of China’s other big problems , however, is the multiple bubbles that are still blowing in all directions. Like the property bubble—the soaring home prices that makes landlords rich, while it shatters young people’s dreams of starting a family, as discussed in a previous piece here.

New Home Prices 2015-19

New Home Prices 2015-19

Koyfin

Unlike the trade war, that’s a long-term problem. Low marriage rates are followed by low birth rates and a shrinking labor force, as the country strives to compete with labor-rich countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Bangladesh—to mention but a few.
Then there’s the unfavorable “dependency rates” — too few workers, who will have to support too many retirees.
And there’s the impact on consumer spending, which could hurt the country’s bet to shift from an investment driven to a consumption driven economy.
Japan encountered these problems over three lost decades, even after it settled its trade disputes with the US back in the 1980s. China experience many more.
Meanwhile, there’s the infrastructure investment bubble at home and abroad, as discussed in a previous piece here. At home infrastructure investments have provided fuel for China’s robust growth. Abroad infrastructure investments have served its ambition to control the South China Sea and secure a waterway all the way to the Middle East oil and Africa’s riches.

City overpass in the morning

City overpass in the morning

Getty

While some of these projects are well designed to serve the needs of the local community, others serve no need other than the ambitions of local bureaucrats to foster economic growth.
The trouble is that these projects aren’t economically viable. They generate incomes and jobs while they last (multiplier effect), but nothing beyond that—no accelerator effect, as economists would say.
That’s why this sort of growth isn’t sustainable. The former Soviet Union tried that in the 1950s, and it didn’t work. Nigeria tried that in the 1960s ;Japan tried that in the 1990s, and it didn’t work in either of those cases.
That’s why bubbles burst – and leave behind tons of debt.
Which is another of China’s other big problem s.
How much is China’s debt? Officially, it is a small number: 47.60%. Unofficially, it’s hard to figure it out. Because banks are owned by the government, and give loans to government-owned contractors, and the government owned mining operations and steel manufacturers. The government is both the lender and the borrower – one branch of the government lends money to another branch of government, as described in a previous piece here.
But there are some unofficial estimates. Like one from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) last year, which placed China’s debt to GDP at 300%!
Worse, the government’s role as both lender and borrower concentrates rather than disperses credit risks. And that creates the potential of a systemic collapse.
Like the Greek crisis so explicitly demonstrated.
Meanwhile, the dual role of government conflicts and contradicts with a third role — that of a regulator, setting rules for lenders and borrowers. And it complicates creditor bailouts in the case of financial crisis, as the Greek crisis has demonstrated in the current decade.

Follow me on Twitter.

I’m Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at LIU Post in New York. I also teach at Columbia University. I’ve published several articles in professional journals and magazines, including Barron’s, The New York Times, Japan Times, Newsday, Plain Dealer, Edge Singapore, European Management Review, Management International Review, and Journal of Risk and Insurance. I’ve have also published several books, including Collective Entrepreneurship, The Ten Golden Rules, WOM and Buzz Marketing, Business Strategy in a Semiglobal Economy, China’s Challenge: Imitation or Innovation in International Business, and New Emerging Japanese Economy: Opportunity and Strategy for World Business. I’ve traveled extensively throughout the world giving lectures and seminars for private and government organizations, including Beijing Academy of Social Science, Nagoya University, Tokyo Science University, Keimung University, University of Adelaide, Saint Gallen University, Duisburg University, University of Edinburgh, and Athens University of Economics and Business. Interests: Global markets, business, investment strategy, personal success.

Source: Trade War Is Hiding China’s Big Problems

Share this:

Like this:

Like Loading...
%d bloggers like this:
Skip to toolbar