Cryptocurrencies are Crashing So How Low Will Bitcoin Go

With bitcoin crashing – in fact, the entire cryptocurrency sector crashing – I thought I should quickly cover it today. Needless to say, it’s not pretty. At all.

Faith in cryptocurrencies has been battered – in most cases, quite rightly

This time last year, bitcoin went on one its monster runs above $60,000. It then had one of its monster crashes. I can’t remember if it was on these pages or on Twitter, but somewhere I suggested that a reasonable target for the correction might be $20,000.

$20,000 was the old high from the 2017 boom and bust and an obvious pivotal price point. But the correction stopped at $30,000, or just below.The conclusion I drew – and on current evidence wrongly drew – was that, as bitcoin matured, its volatility was declining. The 90% corrections of previous bull markets were now 50%-60% corrections.

Bitcoin had a second run above $60,000 in the autumn, followed by another of its humongous corrections, and lo and behold, $30,000 held again (actually just below, but I use round numbers as they are more readable).

As an asset, bitcoin has become highly correlated to the Nasdaq and tech stocks and, as we all know, tech stocks have been walloped. Peloton, for example, which we wrote about yesterday, is down over 90%.So over the past fortnight, I was quite encouraged to see bitcoin holding up quite well relative to other tech stocks. $30,000 looked like it was a floor.

Then we got the collapse in the protocol Terra, and its so-called stablecoin UST, which John covered earlier in the week, and the sector has been absolutely battered.This is big, and it’s going to take some recovering from. The bubble of 2016 was verging-on the-fraudulent ICOs. Today it’s staking and stable coins. The yields on staking – over 20% in some cases – were unsustainable and so they have not been sustained. (If you’re baffled as to what I’m talking about here, don’t worry, you haven’t missed out and at this stage it’s very much for the best).

Hundreds of thousands of people have lost money, in some cases fortunes, and the reputational damage to crypto is considerable. All those who declared that “crypto is a fraud” are now looking wise, while those, myself to an extent included, who made the argument that bitcoin is a hedge against currency debasement are looking stupid, given that it is off some 65% from its highs.

Bitcoin will survive (again) but it’s likely to hit $20,000 and could go even lower

Of course, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not one and the same. Bitcoin remains a product of technical and open-source genius, but forever in its wake, and surrounding it, are disasters, gaffes, frauds and scams.Altcoins, NFTs, the Metaverse, Defi, staking, whatever the latest buzz thing is – all of it is puking value, and the bubble has well and truly burst. Again.

And there lies the keyword – again. This is not the first time this has happened, and it will not be the last. And, for all the junk that surrounds it, bitcoin keeps plodding on. As I write it sits at $27,500. I can’t see how it doesn’t retest $20,000 in the coming days.

We hope $20,000 holds, but these are horrible, horrible, horrible markets – and I’m not just talking about crypto. It was oil going bananas in 2008, rising to $150 a barrel, which triggered that collapse. It seems like something not too dissimilar is happening now, following oil’s spike to $130 last month.

There will be a lot of forced sellers out there – leveraged players (those using borrowed money) and so on. So we are going to see a lot of liquidation. My advice, if you own quality assets, and you don’t have to sell, is not to.

Gold, bitcoin, good companies – whatever. Their price may go lower, but if you are not confident you can beat the market, then don’t sell. Because just as bubbles always burst, so does quality always come good. And bitcoin itself – I’m not talking about other cryptocurrenciesbitcoin itself is a quality asset.

There’s even a chance it could go back to its corona-panic lows of March 2020. Heck, everything else seems to be going that way. That would take us to $3,000. I would have thought that unlikely, but never say never, especially in these markets. If you think you can beat the market, as I say, go for it. If not, HODL quality. Don’t trade it.

By: Dominic Frisby

Source: Cryptocurrencies are crashing – so how low will bitcoin go? | MoneyWeek

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India’s Young Investors Prefer Crypto To Gold and Boring Stocks

Indian businesswoman Swati Daga first bought bitcoin in 2017, when the cryptocurrency was trading well under $3,000. Her decision to invest in digital currencies was met with wariness by her family, she recalls.

“The elders in my family told me not to throw my money away,” said Daga, who runs a food business near New Delhi.But the 33-year-old hasn’t regretted her decision — bitcoin’s value has increased 15 times since then — and she continues to invest as much as 10% of her savings in cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and ethereum.

“I find stock markets boring,” she told CNN Business, adding that she enjoys the “thrill” and “recklessness” that comes with investing in volatile currencies. She is not the only one. India has seen a huge boom in cryptocurrency trading since the start of the pandemic, even though authorities in Asia’s third largest economy have for years expressed concerns about digital currencies, and even banning them.

Entrepreneurs in the industry told CNN Business that the country has the potential to become a crypto superpower, since it is one of the hottest internet markets in the world, with 750 million users, and hundreds of millions more yet to come online for the first time. India ranked second behind only Vietnam last year in a list of countries seeing the fastest growth in cryptocurrency adoption, according to a report published in October by blockchain data platform Chainalysis.

While the government does not keep estimates of how many people trade cryptocurrencies, industry experts have suggested that the country may now have more than 20 million crypto investors. The growth is driven by younger investors — mostly under the age of 35 — and many of them are coming from smaller cities and towns, founders of two of India’s biggest crypto exchanges told CNN Business.

According to Sumit Gupta, CEO and co-founder of exchange CoinDCX, many Indian millennials have started “their investing journey with crypto.” While 20 years ago, their parents chose to invest in gold, these youngsters “are more interested in having bitcoin as part of their portfolio,” Gupta told CNN Business, referring to the fact that traditionally Indians chose to park their money in gold or savings accounts.

Buying gold is both an investment and a cultural habit in India, which is one of the largest markets for the precious metal, according to the World Gold Council. It also considered auspicious by Hindus and Jains, and plays a fundamental role in many religious ceremonies. Mumbai-based CoinDCX became India’s first crypto unicorn last year, achieving a valuation of $1.1 billion after raising money from investors such as Coinbase Ventures and B Capital Group.

The company says 70% of its 10 million users are between the age of 18 and 34. The CoinDCX app is seen on a phone screen in West Bengal, India, in August 2021. Data shared by rival firm WazirX tell a similar story. WazirX also has over 10 million users, and called 2021 a phenomenal year for crypto trading in India. The company was acquired by Binance,  one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges, in 2019.

Over 65% of its users are under the age of 35, according to a recent company report, and it has seen a “700% increase in the number of participants from smaller cities like Guwahati, Karnal, Bareilly, thereby signaling the growing interest from rural and semi-urban areas.”

Pritish Kumawat, a crypto trader from a small town in the western state of Rajasthan, said that he now finds conversations about cryptocurrencies in almost every tea shop in his area.

Often, the most engaged participants are college students, he said, adding that bitcoin’s massive spike last year has fueled the frenzy in India. In November, bitcoin was trading at a record high of $68000 but it has since fallen to around $43,000. In addition to bitcoin, meme currencies such as dogecoin and shiba inu are also popular among Indians, the WazirX report added.

Apart from investors from smaller towns, both companies saw an increase of more than 1000% in the number of women users on their platforms, albeit on a small base. Gupta said that participation of crypto by Indian women has seen “a massive upside” in the past 18 months and is “fairly high, fairly healthy, relative to equity markets.” The company’s data shows that 15% of their overall users are women — which is the global trend as well.

On-again, off-again relationship

The excitement over crypto is rising in India despite the country’s on-again, off-again relationship with digital currencies. The central bank has long expressed concerns that cryptocurrencies can be used for money laundering and to finance terrorism. A cryptically worded proposal posted on the Indian parliament website last year even suggested the government was exploring plans to “prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India.”

This year, however, started on a more cheerful note for enthusiasts. Earlier this month, the Indian government announced it would impose a 30% tax on income from virtual digital assets, which many industry experts took as a sign that crypto trading won’t be banned after all. The government also said it would launch a digital rupee in the coming months.

“Taxation of virtual digital assets or crypto is a step in the right direction. It gives much-needed clarity and confidence to the industry,” Gupta said at the time of the announcement. Siddharth Menon, the co-founder of WazirX, told CNN Business that following the announcement, his platform saw daily sign-ups jump by over 50%. He also noticed rising interest among Indian developers and other professionals in joining the crypto industry.WazirX's website is shown in New York, USA, in April 2021.

“I’m getting LinkedIn messages” from senior executives in India, who are now more optimistic about the business, he said. In the past, Indian exchanges have struggled to hire and retain experienced people due to the lack of clear regulations. But the Indian government soon put a damper on the mood, by clarifying that the cryptocurrencies are not yet legal in the country.

“I am not doing anything to legalize it or ban it or not legalize it,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharama said in parliament a few days after announcing the tax rate. “Banning or not banning will come subsequently … But I will tax because it is a sovereign right.” “I think the government is not entirely sure what it wants to do from a policy perspective,” said Anirudh Rastogi, founder of tech law firm Ikigaw Law, which works with crypto exchanges in India.

“It knows where it wants to land broadly. It wants to find the right balance where it is not disconnected from the global progress in blockchain and other tech, but it wants to also address concerns regarding cryptocurrency.” Rastogi added that the “extraordinarily high” tax on crypto is a short-term fix, which will also acts as a deterrent to many investors.

“This rate is typically used to tax activities that are not considered economically productive, such as lottery,” he said. “So this could be an indication that the government wants to make revenue, but it does not see crypto trading as economically productive.” For equities, India applies a 15% short-term capital gains tax if shares are sold in less than a year, and 10% if sold after a year.

Gupta hopes that the government makes up its mind soon. India, with its vast pool of developers and enthusiastic young population, could be a “superpower in the next five to 10 years,” in cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, he said. “What is missing right now is a clear regulatory framework,” he added.

Source: India’s young investors prefer crypto to gold and ‘boring’ stocks – CNN

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Massive 2022 ‘All-Time High’ Bitcoin Price Prediction Comes With A Serious Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Luna And Avalanche Warning

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have struggled this year, with the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise rates and potentially trim its balance sheet spooking investors.

The bitcoin price has lost around 40% of its value since hitting an all-time high of nearly $70,000 per bitcoin in November. Smaller cryptocurrencies, including ethereum, BNB BNB -0.9%, XRP XRP -2.7%, solana, cardano, luna and avalanche, have also fallen back—though some are on track to break records in 2022.

Now, a panel of cryptocurrency experts has predicted the bitcoin price will peak at almost $82,000 in 2022 before dropping to just above $65,000 by the end of the year—but warned a more advanced blockchain such as ethereum, BNB, XRP, solana, cardano, luna or avalanche could eventually eclipse bitcoin.

“There’s still plenty of uncertainty about the short-term bitcoin outlook,” Asher Tan, the chief executive of Australia-based crypto exchange CoinJar and panel member said in a statement. Tan has a more conservative outlook on the bitcoin price than the panel average.

“Given the macroeconomic headwinds, it would not surprise me to see bitcoin spend the whole year bouncing around between $30,000 to $60,000—the sort of conditions that are terrible for traders, but rewarding for accumulators with a multi-year timeframe.”

The panel, made up of 35 people from the world of crypto and put together by financial comparison website Finder, has returned a lower average bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2022 than it did in January—at the time predicting the bitcoin price would end December at just over $76,000.

The longer-term panel average has also dipped with bitcoin now forecast to be worth just over $420,000 by the end of 2030, down around 25% from an October forecast of $567,000.

However, some panel members have become more bullish since then. Martin Fröhler, the chief executive of ethereum-based trading platform Morpher gave one of the most bullish end-of-2022 predictions, pointing to “political uncertainty, inflation, and an ever increasing desire to own non-government controlled assets” as likely to push the bitcoin price to a new all-time high.

The continued success of ethereum and recent rallies for other top ten cryptocurrencies such as BNB, XRP, solana, cardano, luna and avalanche may have weighed on the panel’s outlook, with 50% predicting bitcoin will eventually be displaced as the most valuable cryptocurrency.

“Bitcoin is a one trick pony,” said Thomson Reuters technologist and futurist Joseph Raczynski who thinks ethereum has “far grander” potential than bitcoin as “a massive platform of the internet of value.”

“For now, bitcoin really only serves as another currency, akin to a dollar, euro, or pound. Other blockchains that serve a multitude of purposes will likely have a chance to take the throne.”

Others are even more downbeat about bitcoin’s prospects. John Hawkins, a senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, returned one of the bleakest bitcoin price predictions, forecasting bitcoin will be worth just $5,000 by the end of 2025 and dropping to a mere $100 per bitcoin by 2030 as it loses out to ethereum and state-backed alternatives.

“As well as private crypto being replaced by central bank digital currencies, and a general collapse of the speculative bubble, I think bitcoin will lose out to ethereum which has a stronger use case, especially if ethereum ever converts to proof-of-stake and so becomes more environmentally responsible.”

Ethereum’s long-awaited transition to the less energy-demanding proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, abandoning the proof-of-work system pioneered by bitcoin, was expected to happen over the next couple of months but has recently been delayed until the end of this year.

I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk

Source: Massive 2022 ‘All-Time High’ Bitcoin Price Prediction Comes With A Serious Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Luna And Avalanche Warning

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Crypto Investing In 2022 What Can You Look Forward To

2021 was a year of epic growth for cryptoassets. We saw the market take a big leap towards maturity as trends such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and the metaverse gained momentum, and regulators contended with the asset class’s growing role in the global economy.

More rapid change can be expected in the year ahead, with the crypto market hitting maturity amidst a changing macro environment and red hot inflation readings. In five concise trends, here is what you should be watching as we move into 2022.

1. NFTs move beyond JPEGs

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) hit the mainstream in 2021. Brand names from Adidas to Budweiser and Pepsi to Warner Bros issued their own collections,  sports fans rushed to buy tokenized cards for their teams on platforms such as Chiliz, and luxury fashion houses including Givenchy dropped tokens to heighten exclusivity.

All of this demonstrated the revolutionary potential of the “NFT” — which was proclaimed Collin’s Dictionary’s word of the year.As we move into 2022, NFTs are set to move beyond just collectible JPEGs. The NFL is now working with Polygon to use NFTs for ticketing, TikTok has released trending videos as NFTs, and a diverse range of companies are starting to use the unique tokens to power radical change in how products are funded, licensed and promoted.

2. Blockchain gaming and metaverse boom

2021 saw the rise of a younger, faster generation of blockchains such as Solana, which offer the high performance needed for sophisticated blockchain-based gaming.Meanwhile, the first crypto games hit the big time. Axie Infinity attracted almost 2 million daily users with play-to-earn mechanisms, and investment poured into metaverse projects from all angles:

Facebook rebranded to Meta and tech giants Microsoft and Amazon dipped their toes, while venture capitalists committed billions to making the metaverse reality.Moving into 2022, this sector of the market is primed to hit the mainstream. All we are waiting for is the catalyst of a high-quality game or social platform that can bring in a broad audience beyond just crypto enthusiasts.

3. Layer 2s steal the limelight

The popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs has created bottlenecks on Ethereum, with congestion pushing network fees to all-time highs.Against this backdrop, Layer 2 scaling solutions such as Polygon (MATIC) have experienced epic growth by offering faster speeds and lower fees with no compromise to decentralization or security.

This trend is set to accelerate in 2022, boosted by new cryptographic innovations — such as Optimistic Rollups and Zero-Knowledge Rollups — which are finally ready for action after years of development.

4. Crypto payments hit the mainstream

2021 showed that payment giants see crypto not as a threat, but as an opportunity: Visa launched a crypto advisory service, Mastercard introduced crypto support, and WhatsApp began testing crypto payments via the Novi wallet.Governments have seen the potential of crypto payments too. El Salvador claimed to be saving $400 million a year in  Western Union fees by using Bitcoin remittances, and a parallel government in Myanmar adopted Tether as an official currency.

These events could be the first signs of a global transformation in payments and remittances; one that is likely to gain momentum in 2022 as more organizations realize that money can be exchanged instantly and inexpensively — as easily as sending an email.

5. Even more regulatory scrutiny

With former blockchain professor Gary Gensler leading the charge at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), authorities around the world are racing to roll out regulatory frameworks.In the US, regulators are discussing a “crypto sprint” to quickly bring the industry into line, while across the Atlantic, the European Union’s (EU) proposed regulatory framework — Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) — is close to becoming law.

This activity will likely mean more scrutiny than ever before for the digital asset ecosystem, but if the approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs around the world and the positivity of the recent US congressional crypto hearing are any indication, then 2022 could be the year we see regulators cautiously embrace cryptoassets.

Source: Crypto investing in 2022 – what can you look forward to?

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Critics:

Pete Howson, a senior lecturer in international development at Northumbria University in Britain, said 2022 is likely to see “stronger public opposition” to bitcoin on environmental grounds, which could force regulators to act more decisively.

A YouGov poll in October found nearly half of Britons supported banning cryptocurrencies to fight climate change.Scandinavian countries have voiced support for a potential ban on bitcoin mining across Europe, and, if that happens, authorities elsewhere might be driven to take a similar stance, said Howson.

“Massive power outages caused 700 deaths in Texas this time last year … and since then, we’ve seen the U.S. overtake China as the bitcoin global superpower, with much of that extra burden added to the Texas grid,” he said. “If again we see ordinary folks freeze to death in places like Texas, the bitcoin bros will be out on their ears.”

At the same time, the industry could be pressured into addressing its “sustainability challenges”, according to Alexander Hoptner, who heads BitMEX, one of the world’s largest virtual currency derivatives exchanges.

In November, the company said it had gone carbon neutral, offsetting emissions from its bitcoin transactions and servers by buying $100,000 in CO2 credits, a model some green groups criticise, saying it simply gives major polluters a way to avoid cutting their own carbon output.

“We’ve already had very encouraging chats with other exchanges, protocols, and organisations who are keen to work together to help lower the environmental impact of crypto,” said Hoptner. “I think 2022 will be the year that the crypto industry comes together to answer those who’ve challenged us to seize this responsibility.”

“Central banks around the world are bowing to the reality that digital payments are becoming the norm,” he said.”Maintaining the relevance of central bank money in retail transactions necessitates the creation of digital versions of their currencies.”From Russia to Chile, many countries have started to look into CBDCs, with tests and rollouts scheduled for 2022.Some, like Japan and Sweden, have already started trials….

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‘Market Is Not Quite Ready’—Bitcoin Billionaire Issues A Serious Crypto Warning As The Price Of Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Cardano, XRP And Luna Suddenly Crash

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have bounced back this week, riding a wave of positive news even as researchers warn of crypto thefts.

The bitcoin price came within touching distance of $50,000 per bitcoin but has today dropped back, losing more than $2,000 per bitcoin in a matter of hours. Ethereum has also erased its latest gains, despite traders eagerly eyeing a long-awaited upgrade.

Now, after El Salvador last week postponed its controversial $1 billion bitcoin-backed bond, outspoken bitcoin billionaire Michael Saylor has warned the market perhaps isn’t “quite ready” for bitcoin bonds.

“I’d love to see a day where people eventually sell bitcoin-backed bonds like mortgage-backed securities,” Saylor, the chief executive of business intelligence software company MicroStrategy, which has pivoted to become a bitcoin acquisition vehicle over the last two years, told Bloomberg in an interview. “The market is not quite ready for that right now. The next best idea was a term loan from a major bank.”

Last week, El Salvador, which became the world’s first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender last year, revealed it had postponed its planned $1 billion bitcoin bond offering with the country’s finance minister Alejandro Zelaya blaming unfavorable market conditions—but El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele blaming the delay on necessary pension reforms.

“I think this is not the time,” Zelaya said in comments reported by Reuters, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unsettling markets in recent weeks. “In May and June sometimes you can, but the market variables get different. After September, it is difficult to raise, unless you are previously funded, as in the case of bitcoin bond.”

The hotly-anticipated bitcoin bond, designed to fund the creation of an ultra-low tax bitcoin city in El Salvador, will have a “substantial oversubscription” that could reach $1.5 billion, according to Zelaya. Half of the funds raised will be used by the country to buy more bitcoin and the rest earmarked to develop bitcoin mining infrastructure powered by a volcano.

Earlier this week, MicroStrategy announced it’s bitcoin-focused subsidiary MacroStrategy had taken on a $205 million loan to buy more bitcoin, adding to its 125,000 bitcoin hoard. MicroStrategy stock price, up some three-fold since it first began buying bitcoin, has slide 6% this week.

The loan will give MicroStrategy “an opportunity to further our position” as the largest publicly-traded bitcoin investor, Saylor said in a statement.

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Source: ‘Market Is Not Quite Ready’—Bitcoin Billionaire Issues A Serious Crypto Warning As The Price Of Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Cardano, XRP And Luna Suddenly Crash

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MicroStrategy CEO and Bitcoin permabull, Michael Saylor believes that traditional financial markets aren’t quite ready for Bitcoin-backed bonds. Saylor told Bloomberg on Tuesday, that he’d love to see the day come where Bitcoin-backed bonds are sold like mortgage-backed securities, but warned that, “the market is not quite ready for that right now. The next best idea was a term loan from a major bank.”

The remarks come two days after MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin-specific subsidiary MacroStrategy, announced that it had taken out a $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan to purchase even more Bitcoin. This loan was unique, as it marked MicroStrategy’s first time borrowing against its own Bitcoin reserves — which are currently valued at approximately $6 billion — to buy more of the cryptocurrency.

Saylor’s comments also follow El Salvador’s recent decision to postpone the issuance of its $1 billion dollar Bitcoin-backed “Volcano Bond” on March 23rd. According to El Salvador’s Finance Minister Alejandro Zelaya, the decision to delay the bond was due to general financial uncertainty in the global market driven by conflict in Ukraine.

In a potential warning to El Salvador, Saylor said that the country’s Volcano Bond was somewhat more risky than his company’s Bitcoin-collateralized loan,Saylor added that he remains extremely bullish on the long-term potential for Bitcoin-based bonds, going as far to say that it would be a good idea for cities like New York to use Bitcoin as a debt instrument.

Related: MicroStrategy CEO won’t sell $5B BTC stash despite crypto winterSince its initial $250-million Bitcoin investment in August 2020, MicroStrategy has now amassed a substantial 125,051 BTC — which at the current price of $44,547 equates to $5.5 billion. MicroStrategy has made a series of separate BTC purchases using the company’s cash on hand as well as the proceeds of sales of convertible senior notes in private offerings to institutional buyers.

Saylor’s actions have gradually transformed MicroStrategy into a partly leveraged Bitcoin holdings company, with MSTR shares closely correlated with the price of Bitcoin.

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