Category: Economy/Recession

Here’s Why We Suddenly Stopped Hearing About A Recession

Topline: Economists—especially after the stock market took a dive in December—had been warning that a recession was coming, and possibly imminent. But a combination of low-interest rates and an improving labor market has quickly silenced those fears — and complicating the hopes of Donald Trump’s foes in 2020.

  • The risk of a recession decreased last week after the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates this year, said Brian Rose, senior Americas economist at UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office.
  • Combined with a stock market bounce-back and a growing economy, investors are now optimistic — a big shift from earlier this year.
  • Major economic predictors showing an increased threat of a recession have scaled back it’s predictions in recent weeks.
  • Asterisk: If President Donald Trump escalates the trade conflict with China by adding more tariffs on Chinese imports—particularly auto parts—the economy could suffer, increasing the chances of a recession, Rose said.

Earlier this year, half of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics predicted a recession in 2020. Another poll of economists by the Wall Street Journal in January put the chances of a recession at 25 percent—the highest since 2011.

Coverage piled on (a few examples: “4 Signs Another Recession Is Coming―And What It Means For You,” “A recession is coming, but don’t flee markets yet,” “The Next Recession Is Coming. Now What?”), with many predicting bad news for Trump (Politico: “Trump advisers fear 2020 nightmare: A recession”). Some industries girded for the worst, like online lenders, who tightened its rules to lessen risk.

And then, suddenly, the panic eased. Now Goldman Sachs economists say there is only a 10 percent chance of a recession. What happened?

The biggest factor in that shift came when the Federal Reserve opted not to not raise interest rates, a pleasant surprise to economists. Rose said lower-than-expected inflation led the Fed to keep rates modest.

The economy, too, has grown, allaying recession fears. According to the latest job numbers, the U.S. has the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.

“It is hard to have a recession when unemployment is this low and interest rates are this low,” Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin said on Wednesday.

The biggest risk of recession comes from Trump himself. If he increases tariffs on more goods than the $200 billion in Chinese imports he’s already promised, the risk of a recession increases, Rose said. As trade negotiations remain rocky, investors are increasingly concerned.

“Left on it’s own, there’s little risk to the economy,” he said. “The real risk of a recession comes from policy, particularly trade.”

Barring another recession, positive economic growth should mean good news for Trump in 2020. But as it stands, Trump is still relatively unpopular (his approval rating sits at 46 percent, although that is a high for him). And most forecasters agree the economy won’t grow as much as the White House says it will.

“A normal president with these economic numbers would have job approval somewhere in the vicinity of 60%,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres told the Los Angeles Times. “But Donald Trump is a nontraditional president, and he has, at least at this point, severed the traditional relationship between economic well-being and presidential job approval.”

Still, a recent CNN poll found that 56 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. And while many Democrats haven’t focused on the latest job numbers, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who is running for president, tried spinning the numbers a different way during an appearance on CNN, crediting President Obama with job growth.

I’m a San Francisco-based reporter covering breaking news at Forbes. Previously, I’ve reported for USA Today, Business Insider,

Source: Here’s Why We Suddenly Stopped Hearing About A Recession

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U.S. Stocks End a Dismal, Volatile Year on a Bright Note — TIME

Wall Street closed out a dismal, turbulent year for stocks on a bright note Monday, but still finished 2018 with the worst showing in a decade.After setting a series of records through the late summer and early fall, major U.S. indexes fell sharply after early October, leaving them all in the red for the year.…

via U.S. Stocks End a Dismal, Volatile Year on a Bright Note — TIME

Here’s How Bloomberg Should Have Spent His $1.8B For Economic Mobility – Allison Dulin Salisbury

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As soon as news hit of Michael Bloomberg’s latest donation to Johns Hopkins University, the praise—and the critiques—started rolling in. If you missed it, the billionaire and former New York City mayor announced last week that he would be giving $1.8 billion to his alma mater to increase need-based financial aid for low- and middle-income students. Bloomberg’s goal, he wrote in The New York Times, was that “no qualified high school student should ever be barred entrance to a college based on his or her family’s bank account.” That’s a well-meaning goal, but it misses the mark on promoting economic mobility more broadly, his ultimate aim, and the purported aim of much of education philanthropy………….

 

 

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The Philippines Per Capita GDP Has Reached An All-Time High Under Duterte – Panos Mourdoukoutas

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Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has a terrible human rights record. But the average Filipino is doing better under Duterte. When it comes to per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), that is. That’s a measure of the total output of a country divided by the number of people in that country. The Philippines’ per-capita GDP was last recorded at an all-time high of 2,891.36 U.S. dollars in 2017, according to Tradingeconomics.com. That’s well above the average of 1,627.98 USD for the period 1960-2017. Also, Filipinos are doing better under Duterte when per-capita GDP is adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). That measure, too, reached a record 7,599.19 U.S. dollars in 2017, well above the average of 4969.71 USD……………..

 

 

 

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Is a Recession Coming – Brooke Crothers

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In December 2007, Larry Kudlow, then a talking head for the business network CNBC, proclaimed, “There’s no recession coming. It’s not going to happen.” That same month, the economy plunged into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. This week, Larry Kudlow, now the director of the National Economic Council, stood on the White House lawn and struck a familiar note: “I’m reading some of the weirdest stuff [about] how a recession is right around the corner. Nonsense,” he said. “Recession is so far in the distance, I can’t see it……….

 

 

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