Labor/Worker Market

Here’s Why Spiking Inflation And Labor Shortages Won’t Tank The Economic Recovery, According To Experts

New York City Reopens As Most Pandemic Restrictions Are Lifted

Spiking inflation, disappointing jobs gains and shortages of labor and commodities have investors wringing their hands over the state of the economy and the seemingly growing risk of overheating, but according to Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, there’s no cause for alarm.

In a research note published Tuesday, Zandi emphasizes that all those factors are temporary. “The recovery . . . may be uneven, given the considerable adjustments needed for the economy to fully reopen, but our outlook for a boom-like economy over the coming year has not changed materially,” he wrote.

The labor shortage and hiring difficulties will improve as students return to school and parents have more childcare options, he suggests, and he describes the evidence that federal supplemental $300 weekly unemployment benefits are keeping workers home as “thin.”

Zandi expects inflationary pressures to ease later this year once the economy returns to normal and businesses—especially those in the travel and leisure industry—get past the point where they are reversing their pandemic-era price cuts.

He suggested investor fears that stubborn inflation will force the Federal Reserve to hastily raise rates, thereby triggering a recession, are unlikely to materialize because of the significant slack still extant in the labor market.

Zandi also cites the ongoing semiconductor shortage as a major factor in the job losses and shortages in the auto manufacturing industry, but adds that he expects those pressures to abate by next year once surging demand and soaring prices for the chips prompt suppliers to boost production, thereby stabilizing the supply chain.

Crucial Quote

“Until the supply side of the economy wakes up and catches up with the fast-reviving demand side coming out of the pandemic, the economic statistics will undoubtedly hold more surprises—output and supply chains scrambled; labor, commodities and products in short supply; and price spikes,” Zandi wrote. “If history is a guide, when businesses can make a healthy profit, they will solve the problems,” he added. “Quickly.”

Key Background

Zandi isn’t the only expert looking beyond the risk factors to a robust recovery. Despite raising their expectations for one measure of inflation by more than a percentage point to a peak of 3.5% this year, analysts from investment giant Goldman Sachs believe the factors that caused them to hike the target for core CPI inflation—soaring used-car prices, production delays in the auto industry and changes in health insurance payouts—are temporary.

Not to mention, their impact isn’t as large across other measures of inflation that weigh prices differently. That sentiment is also beginning to make its way to Wall Street: “The inflation debate is not over, but the majority of Wall Street believes it will be transitory,” OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya wrote in a Tuesday note.

Just as telling as the wage data, the share of working-age Americans who are in fact working has declined in recent decades. The country now has the equivalent of a large group of bakeries that are not making baguettes but would do so if it were more lucrative — a pool of would-be workers, sitting on the sidelines of the labor market.

Corporate profits, on the other hand, have been rising rapidly and now make up a larger share of G.D.P. than in previous decades. As a result, most companies can afford to respond to a growing economy by raising wages and continuing to make profits, albeit perhaps not the unusually generous profits they have been enjoying.

Chief Critic

But not everyone agrees. Larry Summers, an economist who served in the Clinton and Obama Administrations, wrote in a Monday op-ed in the Washington Post that while some of the recent inflation might normalize with time, “not everything we are seeing is likely to be temporary.”

Summers suggests that a handful of factors including demand that grows faster than supply, higher housing prices, inflation expectations and even higher minimum wages and more benefits for employees have the potential to push inflation even higher. Summer recommends that policymakers “explicitly [recognize] that overheating, and not excessive slack, is the predominant near-term risk for the economy.”

What We Don’t Know

When the Federal Reserve will move to tighten policy and raise interest rates. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC last week that given the 8 million jobs that have yet to be recovered, “I think we’ve got to have our policies in a very strongly accommodative situation or stance.” He added: “I don’t think we’re going to have answers on this until at least early fall, and it may take longer than that.”

One of the few ways to have a true labor shortage in a capitalist economy is for workers to be demanding wages so high that businesses cannot stay afloat while paying those wages. But there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the U.S. economy does not suffer from that problem.

If anything, wages today are historically low. They have been growing slowly for decades for every income group other than the affluent. As a share of gross domestic product, worker compensation is lower than at any point in the second half of the 20th century. Two main causes are corporate consolidation and shrinking labor unions, which together have given employers more workplace power and employees less of it.

Sarah Hansen

I’m a breaking news reporter for Forbes focusing on economic policy and capital markets. I completed my master’s degree in business and economic reporting at New York University. Before becoming a journalist, I worked as a paralegal specializing in corporate compliance.

Source: Here’s Why Spiking Inflation And Labor Shortages Won’t Tank The Economic Recovery, According To Experts

References

Borjas, George J. (14 January 2015). Labor economics (Seventh ed.). New York, NY. ISBN 978-0-07-802188-6. OCLC 889577338.
Tarling R. (1987) Labour Markets. In: Palgrave Macmillan (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Graham, Mark; Anwar, Mohammad Amir (2019-04-01). “The global gig economy: Towards a planetary labour market?”. First Monday. doi:10.5210/fm.v24i4.9913. ISSN 1396-0466.
Kenton, Will. “Labor Market”. Investopedia. Retrieved 2020-10-30.
Mankiw, N. Gregory (2016-12-05). Principles of economics (Eighth ed.). Boston, MA, USA. ISBN 978-1-305-58512-6. OCLC 974706695.
Tarling, R. (1987). “Labour Markets”. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. pp. 1–4. doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1213-1. ISBN 978-1-349-95121-5.
Gustav Ranis (February 1997). “The Micro-Economics of Surplus Labor” (PDF). Yale University.
Frank, Robert H.; Microeconomics and Behavior. McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 6th Edition: 2006
Hacker, R. Scott (2000). “The Impact of International Capital Mobility on the Volatility of Labour Income”. Annals of Regional Science. 34 (2): 157–172. doi:10.1007/s001689900005. S2CID 154020468.
Tarling, R. (1987). “Labour Markets”. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. pp. 1–4. doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1213-1. ISBN 978-1-349-95121-5.
Froeb, Luke M. (2016). Managerial economics : a problem solving approach. McCann, Brian T.,, Shor, Mikhael,, Ward, Michael R. (Michael Robert), 1961- (Fourth ed.). Boston, MA. ISBN 978-1-305-25933-1. OCLC 900237955.
Borjas, George J. (14 January 2015). Labor economics (Seventh ed.). New York, NY. ISBN 978-0-07-802188-6. OCLC 889577338.
2010 Prize in Economic Sciences in Honor of Alfred Nobel Press Release
• Edward P. Lazear and Paul Oyer, 2004. “Internal and External Labor Markets: A Personnel Economics Approach,” Labour Economics, 11(5), pp. 527 and 528. [Pp. 527–554.]
• JEL Classification Codes Guide: M per JEL:M5].^{[unreliable source?]}
Paul, Oyer; Scott, Schaefer (2011). Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives. Handbook of Labor Economics. 4. pp. 1769–1823. doi:10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02418-X. ISBN 9780444534521.
Borjas, George J. (14 January 2015). Labor economics (Seventh ed.). New York, NY. ISBN 978-0-07-802188-6. OCLC 889577338.
Becker, Gary S. (Gary Stanley), 1930-2014. (1971). The economics of discrimination (2d ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ISBN 0-226-04115-8. OCLC 173468.
Teixeira, Pedro N. (2007). Jacob Mincer: A Founding Father of Modern Labor Economics – Oxford Scholarship. Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199211319.001.0001. ISBN 9780199211319.
(Sandiaga S. Unno, Anindya N Bakrie, Rosan Perkasa, Morendy Octora : The Young Strategic Renaissance’s In Asia)
Ellerman 1992.
Thompson 1966, p. 599.
Thompson 1966, p. 912.
Ostergaard 1997, p. 133.
Lazonick 1990, p. 37.
“wage slave”. merriam-webster.com. Retrieved 4 March 2013.
“wage slave”. dictionary.com. Retrieved 4 March 2013.
“…vulgar are the means of livelihood of all hired workmen whom we pay for mere manual labour, not for artistic skill; for in their case the very wage they receive is a pledge of their slavery.” – De Officiis [1]
Chomsky 1993, p. 19.
Thye & Lawler 2006.
“As long as politics is the shadow cast on society by big business, the attenuation of the shadow will not change the substance”, in “The Need for a New Party” (1931), Later Works 6, p163
Ferguson 1995.
Graeber 2004, p. 37.
Marx 1990, p. 1006: “[L]abour-power, a commodity sold by the worker himself.”
Another one, of course, being the capitalists’ alleged theft from workers via surplus-value.

Nelson 1995, p. 158. This Marxist objection is what motivated Nelson’s essay, which claims that labour is not, in fact, a commodity.

Labor Shortage Will Push Wages Higher, According To Bank Of America

A man hands his resume to an employer at the 25th annual...

As the U.S. economy roars back to life, new analysis from Bank of America suggests wages are likely to climb higher in the near term thanks to mismatches between supply and demand for workers.

Employers are desperate to staff up quickly to meet surging consumer demand, but some workers have been slow to return for a number of reasons including virus concerns, childcare constraints, early retirement and more generous federal unemployment benefits, BofA senior U.S. economist Joseph Song wrote in a Friday research note.

It’s already clear some workers are holding out for higher pay before they reenter the workforce: The average self-reported reservation wage—the lowest wage a worker says they will accept to start a new job—has grown 21% since the fall for people earning less than $60,000 per year, according to data from the New York Fed.

According to Song’s analysis, wage growth will be stronger in sectors that were hit hardest by the pandemic—including construction, real estate and hotels and food service.

Those are also the industries that tend to employ more workers at the lower end of the income spectrum. The mismatch in the labor market will abate later this year once the reopening boom abates and more Americans return to work, according to Song, which will lessen the upward pressure on wages.

Crucial Quote

“The current labor shortage should sort itself out by the fall as growth normalizes to more sustainable levels and more workers return to the labor force as health concerns subside and generous UI benefits expire by September,” Song wrote. That means wage growth could slow down a little as employers pull back on pay following big wage hikes this year and once they no longer need to compete with a $300 weekly federal unemployment supplement.

What To Watch For

Next year, Song expects wages to rise again when unemployment reaches prepandemic levels, though that growth will be driven by “better labor market fundamentals” rather than transitory factors like the pandemic and enhanced government unemployment benefits.

Big Number

4.2%. That’s the unemployment rate Bank of America is predicting for the end of 2021, down from 6.1%. It expects unemployment will fall even further to 3.5% at the end of 2022.

Key Background

Companies are already beginning to raise their wages to attract more workers as they reopen. Amazon is raising its average starting wage to $17 per hour and McDonald’s plans to raise its average starting pay at company-owned stores to $15 per hour by 2024. Chipotle said earlier this month that it will raise its average wage to $15 per hour by the end of June. Under Armour said Wednesday that it is hiking its minimum wage from $10 to $15 per hour, and Bank of America itself announced this week that it would raise its U.S. minimum wage to $25 per hour by 2025.

Tangent

As big businesses hike pay, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that some small businesses are struggling to remain competitive. The chief client officer at a St. Louis office furniture dealership told the Journal that he has had to raise wages in order to fend off competition for workers from larger companies including Amazon.

The Macroeconomics of Labour Markets

The labour market in macroeconomic theory shows that the supply of labour exceeds demand, which has been proven by salary growth that lags productivity growth. When labour supply exceeds demand, salary faces downward pressure due to an employer’s ability to pick from a labour pool that exceeds the jobs pool. However, if the demand for labour is larger than the supply, salary increases, as employee have more bargaining power while employers have to compete for scarce labour.

The Labour force (LF) is defined as the number of people of working age, who are either employed or actively looking for work (unemployed). The labour force participation rate (LFPR) is the number of people in the labour force divided by the size of the adult civilian non-institutional population (or by the population of working age that is not institutionalized), LFPR = LF/Population.

The non-labour force includes those who are not looking for work, those who are institutionalized (such as in prisons or psychiatric wards), stay-at-home spouses, children not of working age, and those serving in the military. The unemployment level is defined as the labour force minus the number of people currently employed. The unemployment rate is defined as the level of unemployment divided by the labour force. The employment rate is defined as the number of people currently employed divided by the adult population (or by the population of working age). In these statistics, self-employed people are counted as employed.^[5]

The skills required in a labour force can vary from individual to individual, as well as from firm to firm. Some firms have specific skills they are interested in, limiting the labour force to certain criteria. A firm requiring specific skills will help determine the size of the market.^[6]

Variables like employment level, unemployment level, labour force, and unfilled vacancies are called stock variables because they measure a quantity at a point in time. They can be contrasted with flow variables which measure a quantity over a duration of time. Changes in the labour force are due to flow variables such as natural population growth, net immigration, new entrants, and retirements.

Changes in unemployment depend on inflows (non-employed people starting to look for jobs and employed people who lose their jobs that are looking for new ones) and outflows (people who find new employment and people who stop looking for employment). When looking at the overall macroeconomy, several types of unemployment have been identified, which can be separated into two categories of natural and unnatural unemployment.

References

Borjas, George J. (14 January 2015). Labor economics (Seventh ed.). New York, NY. ISBN 978-0-07-802188-6. OCLC 889577338.
Tarling R. (1987) Labour Markets. In: Palgrave Macmillan (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Graham, Mark; Anwar, Mohammad Amir (2019-04-01). “The global gig economy: Towards a planetary labour market?”. First Monday. doi:10.5210/fm.v24i4.9913. ISSN 1396-0466.
Kenton, Will. “Labor Market”. Investopedia. Retrieved 2020-10-30.
Mankiw, N. Gregory (2016-12-05). Principles of economics (Eighth ed.). Boston, MA, USA. ISBN 978-1-305-58512-6. OCLC 974706695.
Tarling, R. (1987). “Labour Markets”. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. pp. 1–4. doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1213-1. ISBN 978-1-349-95121-5.
Gustav Ranis (February 1997). “The Micro-Economics of Surplus Labor” (PDF). Yale University.
Frank, Robert H.; Microeconomics and Behavior. McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 6th Edition: 2006
Hacker, R. Scott (2000). “The Impact of International Capital Mobility on the Volatility of Labour Income”. Annals of Regional Science. 34 (2): 157–172. doi:10.1007/s001689900005. S2CID 154020468.
Tarling, R. (1987). “Labour Markets”. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. pp. 1–4. doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1213-1. ISBN 978-1-349-95121-5.
Froeb, Luke M. (2016). Managerial economics : a problem solving approach. McCann, Brian T.,, Shor, Mikhael,, Ward, Michael R. (Michael Robert), 1961- (Fourth ed.). Boston, MA. ISBN 978-1-305-25933-1. OCLC 900237955.
Borjas, George J. (14 January 2015). Labor economics (Seventh ed.). New York, NY. ISBN 978-0-07-802188-6. OCLC 889577338.
2010 Prize in Economic Sciences in Honor of Alfred Nobel Press Release
• Edward P. Lazear and Paul Oyer, 2004. “Internal and External Labor Markets: A Personnel Economics Approach,” Labour Economics, 11(5), pp. 527 and 528. [Pp. 527–554.]
• JEL Classification Codes Guide: M per JEL:M5].^{[unreliable source?]}

Paul, Oyer; Scott, Schaefer (2011). Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives. Handbook of Labor Economics. 4. pp. 1769–1823. doi:10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02418-X. ISBN 9780444534521.

IRS Delivers Covid-19 Surprise To Workers: A Chance To Redo Their 2021 Health Plan And FSA Choices

If your employer lets you make changes to your workplace healthcare elections for 2021 under new Treasury guidance, it could cut your tax bill.

Wish you could change your health plan for 2021? In newly released guidance on new flexible rules for healthcare and dependent care FSAs, the Internal Revenue Service has included a new Covid-19-relief surprise: Employers can allow employees to make changes prospectively to health care coverage for 2021.

“The guidance is very employer and employee friendly; it really gives a lot of flexibility,” says Jake Mattinson, an employee benefits lawyer with McDermott Will & Emery in Chicago.

Notice 2021-15 allows for mid-year changes to employer-sponsored health care coverage, healthcare flexible spending accounts and dependent care accounts. It will help employees whose medical and caregiving situations have changed because of the coronavirus pandemic. That is, if your employer is on board.

Usually healthcare elections are set in stone on a calendar year basis. Last May, the Treasury Department came up with a partial mid-year fix for 2020, allowing prospective changes and extending grace periods and carryovers through year-end (IRS Notice 2020-29). But employees still cried foul: they had socked away more money than they could spend in these workplace tax-favored accounts, and would be subject to forfeiture rules.

In December, in the tax provisions tied onto the year-end spending package, Congress passed new special rules allowing rollovers and more for leftover 2020 and 2021 FSA money for employees and ex-employees. Notice 2021-15 answers a lot of the open questions about how to implement the new rules.

For 2021, you can revoke an existing healthcare plan election and make a new election, or revoke an existing election and attest that you’re getting coverage elsewhere. Say you picked an HMO plan, but really want to be in a PPO plan. Or say you decide you’d be better off under a spouse’s plan. This gives you the chance to make a mid-year change. That allowance is not in the December law, so it was a surprise, Mattinson says.

For healthcare and dependent care FSAs, the guidance says employers can allow employees to carryover unused amounts they’ve stashed in these accounts from the 2020 and 2021 plan years. It wasn’t clear before, but the IRS says that any plan can implement a 100% carryover or extended grace period, no matter what feature the plan had before, Mattinson says. That means employees might be able to carry over their whole balance (instead of just $550 under current law) from one year to the next.

The extended grace period could go out 12 months, instead of just 2.5 months. as of January 1, 2022, everything would shift back to the regular rules. Under the regular rules, you can stash up to $5,000 pretax per year in a dependent care FSA, but if you don’t use the money for the specified year, you lose it. You can put up to $2,750 in a healthcare FSA, and if you don’t use it, you may be able to either use it up during a grace period or carry over $550.

Don’t get your hopes up just yet: Employers have to adopt these changes, and while some have already been working on amendments to their plans based on the December law even before today’s guidance, others have decided to do nothing. “The reaction among employers is mixed; everyone has their own ideas of what to implement. It’s all optional,” says Mattinson. One client said they would implement it all, while another client said they wouldn’t make any of the changes, for example.

Some of the nitty-gritty guidance surrounds COBRA and health savings accounts. For COBRA, the guidance makes clear that if an employer lets terminated workers seek reimbursement from an FSA, that won’t hurt their qualification for COBRA. For health savings accounts, the guidance clarifies that for employees who want to make a midyear change into a high deductible health plan with an HSA, they could convert a general purpose FSA to a limited purpose FSA so as not to be disqualified from contributing to the HSA.

Notice 2021-15 is 34 pages long and includes detailed examples, suggesting this is an area of the tax code that could be simplified! Here’s a bullet point summary of the law changes addressed in the IRS guidance; employers can:

allow employees to carry over unused money up to the full annual amount from the plan year 2020 to 2021, and also from the plan year 2021 to 2022 for healthcare and dependent care FSAs
allow up to a 12-month grace period for employees to incur new expenses and submit claims against unused accumulated funds for plan years ending in 2020 or 2021 for healthcare and dependent care FSAs
allow midyear election changes on a prospective basis without a change in status event for plan years ending in 2021 for healthcare and dependent care FSAs
allow dependent care reimbursement up to age 14 in cases where an employee’s dependent turned 13 in 2020 and the employee had leftover funds from 2020 (this special carry forward rule helps employees whose dependents “aged out” during the pandemic) for dependent care FSAs
allow health FSA participants who stop participating in the plan (ex-employees) during calendar year 2020 or 2021 to continue to receive reimbursements through the end of the year, including grace periods (this post-termination benefit applies to healthcare FSAs, not dependent care FSAs)

Further reading: Healthcare And Childcare FSA Fix For 2021, Finally: Special Carry Over Rules And More

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

Ashlea Ebeling

I cover personal finance, with a focus on retirement planning, trusts and estates strategies, and taxwise charitable giving. I’ve written for Forbes since 1997. Follow me on Twitter: @ashleaebeling and contact me by email: ashleaebeling — at — gmail — dot — com

Source: IRS Delivers Covid-19 Surprise To Workers: A Chance To Redo Their 2021 Health Plan And FSA Choices

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