HSBC will not name a permanent chief executive when it unveils a major strategic overhaul later this month, despite investor expectations that a new boss would be in place before the plan is announced.
Noel Quinn, who was appointed interim chief executive of the bank six months ago, is preparing to announce the strategic shake-up alongside HSBC’s full-year results on 18 February.
The cost-cutting drive will involve a new round of job cuts targeting senior managers and reducing the bank’s presence in smaller markets, according to Reuters. The Financial Times reported in October that the restructuring e could involve up to 10,000 top losses.
HSBC chairman Mark Tucker had previously said that the search to replace John Flint, who was ousted as chief executive in August last year after just 18 months at the helm, would take between six and 12 months.
But three of the bank’s top 20 shareholders told the FT they were expecting either Quinn or an external candidate to be named as Flint’s successor before the overhaul was unveiled.
“It would be very, very odd to have what is being trailed as a large restructuring effort, potentially the most radical we’ve seen from the bank, that is not implemented by the guy who designed it,” one top 20 shareholder told the FT.
“They have had six months, which is long enough to assess internal and external candidates, so if they’re not announcing someone, it is quite obvious there is an internal debate as to whether Noel is the right person.”
Dec.09 — HSBC Holdings PLC’s Samir Assaf will be replaced as head of the global banking and markets division as interim Chief Executive Officer Noel Quinn overhauls the bank’s senior management team. Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak reports on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”
Google is increasingly involved in more areas of its users’ lives. It’s where we turn every day for answers to pretty much everything from simple questions to complicated research. It’s where we get our email, store our photos, manage our calendars, and manage our files. It’s already the most dominant mobile operating system, and it now makes smart home devices. With its purchase of Fitbit, it’s clear Google also wants to dominate wearable technology.
Well, more specifically, Google plans to partner with banks to offer its customers access to banking products like checking accounts. In this case, accounts would be offered by Citigroup, as well as a credit union at Stanford University, and those financial institutions would provide all of the financial services and account management.
Google would provide the convenience, along with loyalty rewards. For example, users would access their accounts through Google Pay, much like Apple’s users access its branded credit card through Apple Pay.
Speaking of which, with recent moves by other tech companies into the personal finance space, it was probably inevitable that Google would follow suit. Apple recently introduced its own credit card with Goldman Sachs, and Facebook has announced its plans to launch a digital currency called Libra. It might be worth mentioning that both of those have come under intense scrutiny, with New York regulators launching an investigation into Apple Card for discriminating on the basis of gender when extending credit limits.
I actually think this is less a deviation for Google than it might seem. In fact, as TechCrunch pointed out, by providing users with checking accounts, “Google obviously stands to gain a lot of valuable information and insight on customer behavior with access to their checking account, which for many is a good picture of overall day-to-day financial life.”
It’s helpful to remember that for all the useful services Google provides, the company is, at its core, an advertising platform. That is the underlying business model that makes it huge amounts of money, and it’s the driving force behind every product or service it offers.
And while Google hasn’t suffered the same level of scandal as the next-largest advertising platform, Facebook, the strategy is the same–monetize people’s personal information.
Of course, that lack of scandal is reflected in the fact that consumers say they are more likely to trust Google with their financial information than some of its competitors. Only Amazon was rated higher in a McKinsey & Company survey included in the Journal’s report. Fifty-eight percent of consumers said they would trust Google for financial products.
The Journal also reports that Google won’t sell financial information to advertisers, which is great, but that doesn’t mean it won’t use that information to target specific advertising at customers based on their income or spending habits — which is really the only reason Google would get into financial products in the first place.
It’s also the only thing you need to know when considering whether this is a good idea. I’m not sure any amount of “loyalty program” or convenience can make up for the cost of having even more of your personal information monetized.
Google is planning to launch consumer checking accounts next year in partnership with Citigroup and Stanford University, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Wednesday (Nov. 13). Code-named Cache, the accounts will be handled by Citigroup and a credit union at Stanford University. The branding will reflect the financial institutions and not Google. “Our approach is going to be to partner deeply with banks and the financial system,” Google VP of Product Management Caesar Sengupta told WSJ. “It may be the slightly longer path, but it’s more sustainable.”
Topline: Another major U.S. bank beat earnings expectations on Tuesday, showing that despite ongoing tariff pressures, interest rate cuts and slowing trading revenues, Wall Street had a solid quarter.
Bank of America reported profit and revenue that came in higher than analyst estimates—with a net income of $0.56 per share compared to $0.51 expected—thanks to strong consumer and advisory businesses that helped counter declining trading revenues.
Shares of Bank of America rose over 2% in early trading; the stock has now risen almost 17% so far this year.
The bank is the second-biggest lender in the U.S., making it especially sensitive to interest rate cuts—but despite the Federal Reserve’s recent slashing of rates, Bank of America grew loans by 7%.
Three out of four of the bank’s main divisions saw revenue gains: an 8% increase in its global banking business, a 3% increase on consumer banking revenue and a 2% increase in wealth management revenue.
While revenue fell 2% in the bank’s trading division, total company revenue was largely unchanged from a year earlier at $23 billion, beating analysts’ $22.8 billion estimate.
Tangent: Bank of America is one of billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s favorite stocks. Through his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett recently asked the Fed for permission to raise his stake beyond 10%, according to a Bloomberg report.
Crucial quote: “In a moderately growing economy, we focused on driving those things that are controllable,” CEO Brian Moynihan said in a press release.
I am a New York—based reporter for Forbes, covering breaking news—with a focus on financial topics. Previously, I’ve reported at Money Magazine, The Villager NYC, and The East Hampton Star. I graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2018, majoring in International Relations and Modern History. Follow me on Twitter @skleb1234 or email me at email@example.com
Aug.16 — Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said this week’s bond-market turmoil has been driven by issues outside the U.S., and that recession risks are low in the country as consumer spending remains strong. He spoke to Bloomberg’s David Westin in New York.
Applicants with criminal records are being considered for entry-level jobs like account servicing … [+]
Topline: JPMorgan Chase announced an expansion of its efforts to hire people with criminal backgrounds Monday, continuing the trend of big companies “banning the box” and giving people second chances.
JPMorgan Chase hired 2,100 people with criminal records in 2018, which equals about 10% of their total hires last year.
The bank knows those people have records, because they conduct background checks on applicants after a job offer has been made.
Applicants with criminal records are being considered for entry-level jobs like account servicing and transaction processing, according to the bank’s press release.
The unemployment rate for formerly incarcerated people is 27%, while the nationwide unemployment rate is 3.5%, according to the bank.
But the tight labor market could be more beneficial to people with criminal records—a July survey from staffing firm Adecco showed that 35% of respondents would consider those applicants, and 21% of respondents are no longer drug-testing them.
Koch Industries, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Target and Home Depot are among other corporations that have increased hiring efforts of the formerly incarcerated since at least 2013.
Surprising fact: The U.S. loses up to $87 billion annually in GDP by excluding people with criminal backgrounds from the workforce, said the bank.
Key background: “Banning the box” refers to removing questions about criminal backgrounds from job applications, a movement that’s been growing over the past two decades. According to the Pew Research Center, as of April black and Hispanic people make up 56% of the jailed population, leading experts to believe the groups are unfairly discriminated against in hiring. But “ban the box” legislation began to pass in the early 2000s, with laws on the books in 35 states and over 150 cities and counties as of July, according to the National Employment Law Project. And the 2018 First Step Act means thousands of people could be eligible for early release from prison, on top of the 700,000 already released annually—signaling a shifting political attitude towards these workers, according to FastCompany.
I’m a New York-based journalist covering breaking news at Forbes. I hold a master’s degree from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism. Previous bylines: Gotham Gazette, Bklyner, Thrillist, Task & Purpose, and xoJane.
From the railroad and steel consolidations brokered by John Pierpont Morgan on Wall Street more than a century ago, to banking consolidation, the financial crisis and Jamie Dimon’s leadership, J.P. Morgan Chase has been at the center of finance for more than a century. Here’s the story of how the country’s largest bank got to where it is today. Biographer of J.P. Morgan Jean Strouse, longtime bank analyst Mike Mayo and CNBC banking reporter Hugh Son help tell the story. You’ll learn about how Aaron Burr and Alexander Hamilton are part of the bank’s history, along with the first ATM, and the company’s position moving forward into the future of digital banking. Watch the video above to see how the country’s largest bank got to where it is today. ***Clarification*** Since 2004, investors in JPM stock have outperformed the bank stock index by an average of 6% return every year. That’s more than 6x the return of the index yearly (13:52) In February, J.P. Morgan Chase announced it was in growth mode, expanding its branch network to cover 93 percent of the U.S. population by the end of 2022. The aggressive growth plans will allow it to reach 80 million more consumers, or about one-quarter of the U.S. population, versus its footprint in 2018, the New York-based bank says. The expansion of physical branches comes amid a consumer shift to mobile and online banking. The average number of teller transactions per customer has plunged 41 percent since 2014, according to J.P. Morgan’s presentation at its investor day meeting. But convenient branch locations are a key consideration for people thinking about switching banks, and most of the firm’s growth in deposits has been fueled by people who use branches frequently, the bank said. The company made it clear it had flexibility in its growth plans: More than 75 percent of its branches could be shuttered within five years or kept open for more than a decade. » Subscribe to CNBC: http://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC About CNBC: From ‘Wall Street’ to ‘Main Street’ to award winning original documentaries and Reality TV series, CNBC has you covered. Experience special sneak peeks of your favorite shows, exclusive video and more. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: http://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: http://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Google+: http://cnb.cx/PlusCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: http://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC#CNBC How JP Morgan Chase Became The Largest Bank In The US
Big banks to kick off reporting season the week of October 14
Earnings for sector expected to fall slightly, analysts say
Brexit, trade, consumer health on topic list for Financial earnings calls
During Q2 earnings season, Financial sector results helped renew investor confidence in the U.S. consumer.
The question heading into Q3 is whether banking executives still see the same kind of strength, and if they think it can continue amid trade wars, Brexit, and signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Over the last three months, as the broader stock market rallied to an all-time high, slammed the brakes, and then re-tested earlier peaks, consumer health arguably did much of the heavy lifting. It felt like every time stocks pulled back, they got a second wind from retail sales, housing or some other data or earnings news that showed consumers still out there buying.
The banks played a huge role in setting the stage by reporting better-than-expected Q2 results that showed signs of strong consumer demand even as some of the banks’ trading divisions took a hit. Next week, six of the biggest banks come back to talk about their Q3 experience and what they expect for Q4. Analysts expect Financial sector earnings to drop slightly in Q3.
That said, most of the major banking names have done an excellent job keeping costs in check as they wrestle with fundamental industry headwinds like falling interest rates and slowing revenue from their trading divisions. This time out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more of the same, and you can’t rule out a bit more vigor from the trading business thanks to all the volatility we saw in the markets last quarter.
Earnings growth may not be there for Financials this time around, or it could be negligible. At the end of the day, though, Financial companies are still likely to be remarkably profitable considering a yield curve that remains relatively flat and global macroeconomic concerns, according to Briefing.com. This sector knows how to make money, but it might just not make as much as it did a year ago. Earnings will likely show large banking companies still in good financial condition with the U.S. consumer generally in decent shape for now, as the U.S. economy arguably remains the best-kept house on a tough block.
Investors have started to pick up on all this, judging from the S&P 500 Financial sector’s good health over the last month and year to date. The sector is up 3.4% from a month ago to easily lead all sectors over that time period, and up 15% since the start of 2019. The 15% gain is below the SPX’s 17% year-to-date pace, but it’s an improvement after a few years when Financials generally didn’t participate as much in major market rallies.
What to Listen For
No one necessarily planned it, but it’s helpful in a way that banks report early in the earnings season. Few other industries have larger megaphones or the ability to set the tone like the biggest financial institutions can. The other sectors are important, too, but they often see things from their own silos. Combined, the big banks have a view of the entire economy and all the industries, as well as what consumers and investors are doing. Their positive remarks last quarter didn’t really give Financial stocks an immediate lift, but it did apparently help reassure investors who were nervous about everything from trade wars to Brexit.
Going into Q3 earnings, those same issues dog the market, and bank executives have a front-row seat. How do they see trade negotiations playing out? Can consumers hold up if trade negotiations start to go south? How’s the consumer and corporate credit situation? Will weakness in Europe spread its tentacles more into the U.S.? And is there anything bank CEOs think the Fed or Congress can do to fend off all these challenges?
On another subject closer to the banks’ own business outlook, what about the shaky initial public offering (IPO) situation? That’s getting a closer look as a few recent IPOs haven’t performed as well as some market participants had expected. One question is whether other potential IPOs might get cold feet, potentially hurting businesses for some of the major investment banks.
All the big bank calls are important, but JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday morning might stand out. Last time, CEO Jamie Dimon said he saw positive momentum with the U.S. consumer, and his words helped ease concerns about the economic outlook. More words like that this time out might be well timed when you consider how nervous many investors seem to be right now. On the other hand, if Dimon doesn’t sound as positive, that’s worth considering, too.
While few analysts see a recession in the works—at least in the short term—bank executives might be asked if they’re starting to see any slowdown in lending, which might be a possible sign of the economy putting on the brakes. Softer manufacturing sector data over the last few months and falling capital investment by businesses could provide subject matter on the big bank earnings calls.
Regionals Vs. Multinationals
While big banks like JPM operate around the world and might be particularly attuned to the effects of trade, regional banks make most of their loans within the U.S., potentially shielding them from overseas turbulence.
Regional banks also might provide a deeper view into what consumers are doing in the housing and credit card markets. With rates still near three-year lows, we’ve seen some data suggest a bump in the housing sector lately, and that’s been backed by solid earnings data out of that industry. If regional banks report more borrowing demand, that would be another sign pointing to potential strength in consumer sentiment. Refinancing apparently got a big lift over the last few months, and now we’ll hear if banks saw any benefit.
One possible source of weakness, especially for some of the regional players, could be in the oil patch. With crude prices and Energy sector earnings both under pressure, there’s been a big drop in the number of rigs drilling for oil in places like Texas over the last few months, according to energy industry data. That could potentially weigh on borrowing demand. Also, the manufacturing sector is looking sluggish, if recent data paint an accurate picture, maybe hurting results from regional banks in the Midwest. It might be interesting to hear if bank executives are worried more about the U.S. manufacturing situation.
Another challenge for the entire sector is the rate picture. The Fed lowered rates twice since banks last reported, and the futures market is penciling in another rate cut as pretty likely for later this month. Lower rates generally squeeze banks’ margins. If rates drop, banks simply can’t make as much money.
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from last autumn’s high above 3.2% to recent levels just above 1.5% amid fears of economic sluggishness and widespread predictions of central bank rate cuts. The long trade standoff between China and the U.S. has also contributed to lower yields as many investors pile into defensive investments like U.S. Treasuries, cautious about the growth outlook.
Another thing on many investors’ minds is the current structure of the yield curve. The 10-year and two-year yields inverted for a stretch in Q3, typically an indication that investors believe that growth will be weak. That curve isn’t inverted now, but it remains historically narrow. Still, some analysts say the current low five-year and two-year yields might mean healthy corporate credit, maybe a good sign for banks.
Q3 Financial Sector Earnings
Analysts making their Q3 projections for the Financial sector expect a slowdown in earnings growth from Q2. Forecasting firm FactSet pegs Financial sector earnings to fall 1.8%, which is worse than its previous estimate in late September for a 0.9% drop. By comparison, Financial earnings grew 5.2% in Q2, way better than FactSet’s June 30 estimate for 0.6% growth.
Revenue for the Financial sector is expected to fall 1.6% in Q3, down from 2.6% growth in Q2, FactSet said.
While estimates are for falling earnings and revenue, the Financial sector did surprise last quarter with results that exceeded the average analyst estimate. You can’t rule out a repeat, but last time consumer strength might have taken some analysts by surprise. Now, consumer strength in Q3 seems like a given, with the mystery being whether it can last into Q4.
Upcoming Earnings Dates:
Citigroup (C) – Tuesday, October 15
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) – Tuesday, October 15
Wells Fargo (WFC) – Tuesday, Oct. 15, (B)
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Tuesday, October 15
Bank of America (BAC) – Wednesday, October 16
Morgan Stanley (MS) – Thursday, October 17
TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.
I am Chief Market Strategist for TD Ameritrade and began my career as a Chicago Board Options Exchange market maker, trading primarily in the S&P 100 and S&P 500 pits. I’ve also worked for ING Bank, Blue Capital and was Managing Director of Option Trading for Van Der Moolen, USA. In 2006, I joined the thinkorswim Group, which was eventually acquired by TD Ameritrade. I am a 30-year trading veteran and a regular CNBC guest, as well as a member of the Board of Directors at NYSE ARCA and a member of the Arbitration Committee at the CBOE. My licenses include the 3, 4, 7, 24 and 66.
Last week’s announcement from Coalition that American and European investment banks’ capital markets and advisory’s revenues hit a thirteen-year low is likely to be the beginning of more challenges to come. Even before that announcement, Moody’s Investor Services had changed its positive outlook on global investment banks to stable precisely due to slower economic growth and lower interest rates.
Drivers of Moody’s Stable Outlook for Global Investment Banks
Moody’s Investors Services
As a recession comes closer, bank risk managers, investors, regulators, and rating agencies will be monitoring banks’ loan impairments carefully. According to the Fitch Ratings’ Large European Banks Quarterly Credit Tracker – 2Q19, released last week, “The economic slow down in Europe has not resulted in material new impaired loans yet, but the substantially weakened economic outlook has increased the likelihood of an at least modest increase in impaired loans.”
Impaired Loans/Gross Loans
Fitch Ratings, Large European Banks Quarterly Credit Tracker
Banks’ high holdings of leveraged loans and below investment grade bonds and securitizations, especially those that are less liquid and harder to value, will also weigh on their earnings as the global economy slowdown intensifies. Fitch Ratings’ recent ‘U.S. Leveraged Loan Default Insight’ shows that its “Top Loans and Tier 2 Loans of Concern combined total jumped to $94.1 billion from $74.5 billion in July. The Top Loans of Concern amount ($40.9 billion) is the largest since March 2017, with six names added to the list and nearly all bid below 70 in the secondary market.” Unfortunately, underwriting continues to deteriorate. The Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey showed a modest loosening of lending standards on corporate loans for the second consecutive quarter.
Fitch U.S. Leveraged Loan Default Index.
A slowing economy and low interest rate environment are outside of bank managers’ control. Yet, cost efficiency, is something that banks can influence; it needs to improve for banks to be more profitable. European banks’ median/cost income ratio, for example, is 66%. “The sector’s structural cost inefficiency will eventually have to be addressed given the persistently weak rate and revenue outlook. Improving cost efficiency faster and developing fee-generating businesses are crucial to sustain profitability in 2H19 and beyond.”
Fitch Ratings, Large European Banks Quarterly Credit Tracker
Global investment banks will also have to be very attentive to what changes need to be made to their business models. While there will be demand for their advisory and distribution services, the demand will slow down in what is likely an upcoming recession.
Source: Moody’s Investors
Moreover, as banks continue to lay-off front office professionals, some top latent to effect deals well will be lost. Volatility from Trump’s multiple front trade wars and Brexit will put a lot of pressure on banks with capital market activities.
Aggregate capital markets revenue first-half 2009-19 (USD billions)
Moody’s Investor Services
Banks in emerging markets are also under profit pressure. Many of the banks in Latin America already have a negative outlook by ratings agencies, particularly due to a slowdown in Mexico and recessionary pressures in Brazil. Asian banks are particularly sensitive to US-Chinese trade tensions.
Emerging Markets: Median GDP Growth by Region
More than ever, to increase profitability, bank executives will need to find ways to diversify their revenue streams in all parts of their banks, commercial, investment bank, asset management as well as in custody and clearing services. Banks need to be profitable to be liquid and to be well capitalized to sustain unexpected losses. What worries me is that a slowing global economy, coupled with increasing deregulation in the US, such as the recent gutting of the Volcker Rule, will embolden banks to chase yield even more and take excessive risks that could imperil depositors and taxpayers. More than ever, investors, bank regulators, and rating agencies should remain vigilant so as to spare ordinary citizens the pain of when banks run into trouble.
When you’re thinking about money and wealth is hard not to include in that equation Banks. Someone said: Money makes the world go round” and banks, well, that’s where money likes to hang out. Every Aluxer we’ve met has close relations to at least one bank which makes it possible for us to enjoy life to the fullest. #2 *** HSBC Holdings is previously known as The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation which was founded in 1865 in Hong Kong. However, in 1991-1992, after acquiring Midland Bank The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation moved it’s headquarters to London because it was much better from a financial and strategic point of view.
Deutsche Bank has issued its results for the second quarter of 2019. They make grim reading. The bank reported a headline loss of €3.1bn ($3.44bn), which it said was due to “charges relating to strategic transformation” of €3.4bn ($3.78bn). But both net income of £231m ($256.67m) and underlying profits of €441m ($490m) were significantly down on the same quarter in 2018.
The restructuring announced earlier this month has yet to impact fully. The “capital release unit” into which the bank plans to put €74bn ($82.22bn) of poorly-performing and non-strategic assets and business lines, including its entire equities trading division, is not yet up and running, and although headcount is about 4,500 lower than it was a year ago, the latest round of sackings doesn’t yet show up in the redundancy costs. Restructuring costs themselves therefore only contribute €50m ($55.56m) to the headline loss.
A further €350m ($388.89m) comes from junking software and service contracts that will no longer be needed because of the restructuring. But by far the largest part of the headline loss arises from impairment of goodwill to the tune of €1bn ($1.11bn) and a €2bn ($2.22bn) reduction in the value of the bank’s deferred tax asset.
This may sound like accounting gobbledegook, but it sends a very important message. Deutsche Bank’s management has admitted the bank will never return to the profitability of the past. When the restructuring is complete, it will be a much smaller, poorer bank.
First, the writedown of the deferred tax asset (DTA). A DTA arises when a firm pays taxes in advance and then suffers losses that wipe out that tax liability, resulting in an overpayment. Rather than claiming back the money, firms can “carry forward” the overpayment and use it to offset their tax liability in a subsequent reporting period. This “carried forward” amount is shown as an asset on the balance sheet.
However, a firm can only carry forward overpaid tax into subsequent periods if it is reasonably certain that the firm will eventually make enough profits to be liable for that amount of tax; and there is usually a time limit by which the deferred asset must be used. If the firm can’t generate enough profits to use the DTA, it is lost.
This is how Deutsche Bank explains its decision to write down the DTA (my emphasis):
Each quarter, the Group re-evaluates its estimate related to deferred tax assets, including its assumptions about future profitability. In updating the strategic plan in connection with the transformation the Group adjusted the value of deferred tax assets in affected jurisdictions. This resulted in total valuation adjustments of € 2.0 billion in the second quarter of 2019 that primarily relate to the U.S. and the UK.
Deutsche Bank has admitted that the deep cuts to the investment bank will result in profitability being significantly lower for the foreseeable future.
Now to goodwill. Goodwill can be regarded as another type of overpayment. It is the amount by which the purchase price of an asset or business exceeds the fair value of the tangible and intangible assets acquired and any liabilities taken on. Firms overpay for acquisitions when they expect them to deliver higher returns in future. But if they disappoint, then eventually the value of the “goodwill” must be reduced.
In two divisions – corporate finance, and the wealth management unit within its private & commercial banking division – Deutsche Bank has written off its entire goodwill, amounting to €491m ($545.56m) in corporate finance and €545m ($605.56m) in wealth management. Importantly, the notes to the accounts show that the write-off is not a restructuring cost; these are business lines that have been under-performing for quite some time. The bank blames “adverse industry trends” and “worsening macroeconomic assumptions, including interest rate curves.” This is code for “we thought interest rates would be much higher by now.” Revenues have persistently disappointed because of very low interest rates, and now that the European Central Bank has indicated that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future – and may even be cut further – there is no real prospect of recovery. These business lines are simply never going to make enough money to cover their acquisition cost. Cue transfer to the “capital release unit” as soon as it is up and running.
The good news is that the €3bn ($3.33bn) writedown of DTA and goodwill didn’t affect the bank’s capital. The all-important CET1 capital ratio stayed firm at 13.4%. But looking ahead, there are clearly more restructuring costs to come. The bank says it currently has provisions for about €1bn ($1.11bn). It expects to use all of this, and it may need more. And Deutsche Bank also faces further litigation charges which it admits could be considerable.
But the biggest problem is Deutsche Bank’s desperate lack of income. Troubled though it is, the investment bank is still Deutsche Bank’s biggest source of revenue. The planned cuts will slash that to the bone, and there is no evidence that any of the other divisions can step up to replace it. All Deutsche Bank’s divisions, apart from its asset manager DWS, have flat or declining revenues and poor profitability. Unless it can turn this around, the future looks very bleak.
Despite the management’s upbeat presentation, the share price fell on these results. Shareholders were clearly unimpressed with the promise of “jam tomorrow” in the form of dividends and share buybacks from 2022. Perhaps they, like me, were looking at the bank’s promise to turn ROTE of negative 11.2% today into positive 8% by 2022, and thinking, “I don’t believe a word of it.”
I used to work for banks. Now I write about them, and about finance and economics generally. Although I originally trained as a musician and singer, I worked in banking for 17 years and did an MBA at Cass Business School in London, where I specialized in financial risk management. I’m the author of the Coppola Comment finance & economics blog, which is a regular feature on the Financial Times’s Alphaville blog and has been quoted in The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Guardian. I am also a frequent commentator on financial matters for the BBC. And I still sing, and teach. After all, there is more to life than finance.
Speaking at the Innovate Finance Global Summit, Carney said that he would focus on encouraging innovation among fintech startup, and making climate change and Artificial Intelligence (AI) priorities.
Carney stressed on the emerging digital economy, which many developing nations are preparing for by embracing blockchain technology and decentralized systems.
The second great wave of globalisation is cresting. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is just beginning. And a new economy is emerging. That new economy requires a new finance. A new finance to serve the digital economy, a new finance to support the major transitions underway across the globe, and a new finance to increase the financial sector’s resilience.
Carney also spoke of the changing nature of the way we exchange value,
Consumers and businesses increasingly expect transactions to be settled in real time, checkout to become an historical anomaly, and payments across borders to be indistinguishable from those across the street.
Though Ripple is not mentioned by name, the kind of solutions that Ripple offers is a partial answer for the kind of upgrade that Carney speaks of. The cross-border solutions that Ripple provides has been warmly welcomed by banks across the world.
Earlier this year, the World Economic Forum released a report that showed over 40 central banks across the world were conducting research and/or implementing blockchain solutions. Certainly there is a lot to be gained by established entities adopting the technology, IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, has also said that “cryptocurrencies clearly shake the world.”
Abhimanyu is an engineer on paper but a writer by living. To him, the most celebratory aspect of blockchain technology is its democratic nature. While he’s hodling, he can be found reading a good book or making the local dogs howl with the sound of his guitar playing.
SoftBank Group Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son delivers a keynote speech during the SoftBank World 2018 conference on July 19, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)
Everybody is wondering what Warren Buffett will buy next. With more than $100 billion in cash, aspirations for another megadeal and an 89th birthday approaching, the Sage of Omaha says he’s on the prowl for big targets.
One wonders, though, if the investment world is looking in the wrong direction. The focus on Buffett, the man and the legend, is about more than nostalgia, of course. In today’s chaotic and disorienting economic climate, the next big move by this value-investment icon will turn many heads.
But 6,000 miles away from Nebraska, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is pioneering a new era of value investing. Whether Japan’s richest man can live up to the Buffett-of-Japan hype is anyone’s guess. The report card on the $100 billion Vision Fund he rolled out in 2016 is incomplete, at best. And that’s vital to keep in mind as Son ups his firepower to the $200 billion mark.
Before launching a second $100 billion fund, Son might want to convince the globe that his first one hit his own intended targets. Son can start by answering three questions.
One: What’s the theme here? Don’t get me wrong–Japan needs more risk-takers like Son. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spent the last six-plus years urging ultra-conservative Japan Inc. to rekindle the innovative mojo that drove the nation to such great heights in the 1970s and 1980s. By becoming the world’s top venture capitalist, Son, 61, is showing peers in Asia’s No. 2 economy how it’s done.
Well, we hope so. His splashy investments smash the Japanese CEO mold. But they also raise questions about the grander strategy at play. SoftBank’s journey from software company in 1981 to telecom titan–gobbling up Vodafone and Sprint–has a certain Buffett-esque logic. His aggressive bets on everything from Uber to WeWork to messaging system Slack to online lender SoFi to robot-pizza-maker Zume to Fortress Investment to food-deliverer DoorDash to solar panels to AI (artificial intelligence) to indoor farms to satellite makers, though, are as scattershot as you’ll find among today’s billionaires.
Son doesn’t often swing for the fences the way Buffett does at times. Buffett’s 2016 megadeal purchase of Precision Castparts for $37 billion is a case in point. Consider Son more of a “Moneyball” player who tried to recreate the Buffett-like income streams in the aggregate. Still, investors are anxious to know how dominating the ride-sharing space, betting $3.3 billion on money-manager Fortress and overpaying for startups around the globe can gel together in profitable ways.
Two: Where’s Son’s General Re? One year ago, a tantalizing story swept the markets: Son might be buying a nearly $10 billion stake in Swiss Re AG. It seemed classic Buffett to stabilize Son’s broader constellation of futurist bets the way General Re helps anchor the sprawling Berkshire Hathaway. What better way to reconcile the gap between an increasingly eclectic balance sheet, a discounted SoftBank share price and Son’s global ambitions?
Those ambitions have their roots in a 2000 investment Son made in a then-little-known Chinese visionary. The $20 million Son wagered on Jack Ma helped seed Alibaba. It paid off spectacularly, too. By 2014, when Ma took his e-commerce juggernaut public, Son’s bet was worth some $50 billion. The Vision Fund aims to recreate that success in the aggregate, as many times over as possible.
Anchors are important, though. Son’s talks with Swiss Re ultimately failed. Yet it’s time to build in some Vision Fund cash-flow stability.
In 2016, here’s how Son explained his strategy: “I think I’m better than others at sniffing out things that will bear fruit in 10 or 20 years, while they’re still at the seed stage, and I’m more willing to take the risks that entails.”
Great, so long as there are ample shock absorbers for when some of those risks go awry. The need becomes greater as Son’s arsenal doubles to $200 billion.
Three: How to finesse the Saudi dilemma? A major source of Vision Fund’s seed money–$45 billion–resulted from a September 2016 meeting between Son and Muhammad bin Salman. The Saudi Arabian crown prince, you might’ve noticed, has been in a few headlines since then. None flattering, and it’s not a great look for SoftBank.
The apparent murder of dissident and Washington Post contributorJamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate put a cloud over Riyadh. That, coupled with a gruesome war in Yemen and locking up relatives, made MBS, as the prince is known, a less appealing business partner. In late October, a who’s-who of chieftains dropped out of MBS’s “Davos in the Desert” conference–from JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon to HSBC’s John Flint.
Can SoftBank avoid the taint? Time will tell, but Son may have another Saudi challenge on his hands: divergent visions. So many of Son’s Vision Fund bets are in the renewable energy space. How, though, does that track?
The Saudi royal family has expressed a desire to diversify its fossil-fuel-reliant economy. And yet that effectively means replacing the industry from which Saudi royals derive their wealth. If MBS changed his mind, restoring the primacy of the petrodollar model, the source of Son’s liquidity dries up.
Perhaps Son can indeed reconcile this disconnect. There’s a great deal riding on Son’s ability to juggle–and ultimately answer–these three questions. I’m certainly rooting for him. Few visionaries are doing more, at this very moment, to empower startups with the potential to alter humankind’s trajectory.
A key Son priority, for example, is helping seismically-active nations from Japan to India replace nuclear reactors with safer renewables. If Son and his ilk succeed, future generations won’t know from petrostates, oil rigs or gas stations. Cars, airplanes, ships and indeed buildings will be powered by batteries or other clean-energy sources.
Getting there, though, requires out-of-the-box thinking and even bigger risk-taking. That’s why the trajectory of the global economy will likely owe more to Son’s moves than Buffett’s.