Why a Bear Market Is an Investor’s Best Friend

In the USA, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are in bear market territory. A bear market is often taken to mean a 20% fall. That’s either from a recent peak, or over a set period of time.But generally, investors tend to think of any sustained upwards run as a bull market. And any significant downwards spell is a bear market. Typically, the average bull market has lasted around five years. The average bear, meanwhile, continues for a little more than a year.

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Might long-term investors be better of if that was the other way round, with more falls than rises? Wouldn’t we have more opportunities to buy cheap shares? To answer that, I can’t think of anything better than looking at how the billionaire boss of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, deals with stock market falls.

In the few weeks after the Covid-19 pandemic struck, the S&P 500 fell 30%. The recovery was surprisingly fast, with the index regaining its ground by August. The FTSE 100 took quite a bit longer, mind. What happened the next year, in 2021? The S&P 500 gained 28.7%, while Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slightly bettered it with 29.6%. Buying shares while they were depressed by the pandemic was clearly a good plan.

Major bear market
But that’s nothing compared to the carnage resulting from the the financial crash, which kicked off in 2007. Between a high point in October that year, and the beginning of March 2009, the S&P 500 crashed by a whopping 56%.

Berkshire Hathaway suffered too, albeit with a softer fall of 32%. Now what do we see if we wind forward a decade? From the depths of the banking crash in 2009, the S&P 500 had gained 280% by the same point in 2019. Buffett’s shareholders did a bit better on 290%, and they’d started from a significantly lower initial fall.

Just like the Covid market slump, the financial crash provided investors with a great time to buy. And those who were panicking and selling while shares were down? Well, we can see what they missed.

Fear and greed

Buffett is famed for buying heavily when he sees great companies unfairly marked down. In his 1986 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, he explained how he avoids trying to time the market bottoms. Instead, he said: “Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

That approach to bear markets has served Buffett, and his shareholders, well.From Buffett taking control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965 up to the end of 2021, the S&P 500 managed a total return (including dividends) of more than 30,000%. Berkshire, meanwhile, soared by a total of 3.6 million percent!

We’re not all going to be as good as Buffett. But even investors who make regular purchases in an index tracker will benefit from bear markets over the long term. The simple truth is that when markets are down, we can buy more shares for the same money.

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by Alan Oscroft

Source: Why a bear market is an investor’s best friend – The Motley Fool UK

Critics by: principal.com

If you have reviewed these basics and you still have money at the end of the month, here’s a quick look at further investment options to consider.

1. Increase your deferral to your 401(k) or other workplace retirement plan.

The maximum amount you can contribute each year through elective salary deferrals is $19,500.1 And if you’re 50 or older, you can also make a “catch up” contribution of up to $6,500.2

“Bumping up your deferral, even by 1 or 2%, may not seem like much. But with the power of compounding earnings, it can make a big difference over 20 or 30 years,” says Heather Winston, CFP®, assistant director of financial advice and planning for Principal®. Also, weigh the difference between saving in a tax-deferred account vs. a taxable one.

Winston says if your account has taken a dip, increasing your contributions may help you reach your retirement goal sooner. If the markets have dropped, the money you defer to your retirement plan may go further by allowing you to buy more shares.

To get started: If you have a retirement account from your employer with services by Principal, you can log in to increase your contribution. First time logging in? Here’s how you create an account.

2. Add to your traditional or Roth Individual Retirement Account (IRA).

Good news: You have until July 15, 2020, to make a 2019 contribution to an IRA, thanks to recent legislation. (And you can always make a 2020 contribution now, too.)

The maximum annual contribution to a traditional IRA is $6,000. If you’re 50 or older, the IRA catch-up contribution limit is $1,000. (Read the basics of IRAs.)

Depending how much money you make and if you’re not covered by a retirement plan at work, you may be able to deduct all or a portion of your traditional IRA contributions from your taxes (details are on the IRS website). The more you save today, the more you’ll likely have years down the road.

With a Roth IRA, you can contribute up to $6,000 per year using after-tax money. If you’re 50 or older, you can add an extra $1,000 per year. To contribute the full amount to a Roth IRA, you need to make less than:

  • $124,000 if you’re single or file as head of household.
  • $196,000 if you’re married filing jointly.

You can withdraw your annual Roth IRA contributions without taxes or penalties at any time. If you have earnings, you can withdraw them tax-free in retirement.3

To get started: Review our IRA solutions to see what may be best for you.

Tip: Monitor and rebalance. If you’re investing in the market through a retirement plan, IRA, stocks, or mutual funds, consider putting this on your to-do list annually: Rebalance your portfolio (PDF) and make sure you have a diverse mix of investment options within various asset classes. A financial professional can help you learn how to do that.

3. Open a brokerage account, if you don’t already have one.

If you’ve never invested in stocks and mutual funds outside of your workplace retirement plan or IRAs, you could start by opening a brokerage account. (Not sure if you’re ready? Read “Four signs you’re ready to start investing.”)

You’ll need to know your risk tolerance. A risk profile (PDF) places you on a scale somewhere between conservative (more averse to risk) and aggressive (more tolerant of risk). Your profile can help you select investments and build a portfolio at a level of risk you’re comfortable with, while continuing to work toward your goals.

This year is a good test of investors’ tolerance for risk. If you find yourself worrying about whether your portfolio is gaining or losing day-to-day, or certainly if you’re losing sleep, you may need to adjust your risk profile. When your risk tolerance matches your investment portfolio, volatile times can be less concerning for you.

To get started: Connect with a financial professional to discuss your options.

Asset classes you might consider

If you invest, consider diversifying—spreading your money across multiple types of investments—to help reduce the risk of losing money.

  • Large companies and technology stocks will likely continue to perform well.
  • Look at small companies and sectors like energy, materials, consumer discretionary (non-essential goods and services), and financials to improve.
  • Stocks in emerging countries may perform better than those in developed countries outside the United States.
  • For bonds, go for higher yields on high quality corporate and municipal bonds at short-intermediate maturities.
4. Set aside money in a 529 savings plan for a child or grandchild.

A 529 savings plan allows you to invest your money to be used for qualified education expenses such as college, apprenticeship programs, and K-12. This includes tuition, room and board, mandatory fees, and textbooks. You designate how and where it’s spent.

Before opening an account, get a full understanding of the plan, including its tax benefits, fees, expenses, and investment options. You can open a 529 plan offered by any state, so shop around for the one that best suits your needs.

To get started: If you’re interested in learning about our 529 plan, visit scholarsedge529.com.

5. Contribute more to a Health Savings Account (HSA).

If you’re enrolled in a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP), you can add a total of $3,550 a year for single coverage or a max of $7,100 for family coverage in 2020. If you’re over age 55 but under 65, you can also make “catch-up” contributions to your HSA, to the tune of $1,000 more per year.

An HSA offers a triple advantage on federal income taxes: Money put in isn’t taxed, it grows tax-free, and you’re not taxed when you take money out for medical expenses. Plus you decide how the funds are invested, and how you’ll use the money for health care expenses.

To get started: Talk to your employer’s human resources department about how to contribute more to an HSA associated with your HDHP.

Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession

As a growing number of investment banks and company chiefs warn that the likelihood of a recession is increasing, analysts at Morgan Stanley are telling clients that the stock market—despite reeling from a steep selloff in recent weeks—has plenty of room to fall before hitting levels consistent with recession-era lows, which would be especially bad for cyclical industries like travel and hospitality.

Despite major stock indexes plunging more than 20% below recent highs, markets are still only down by about 60% of the average drawdown compared with previous recessions (which denote two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), Morgan Stanley analysts told clients in a Tuesday note.

As the Federal Reserve works to combat decades-high inflation with interest rate hikes that will likely stunt economic growth, a recession “is no longer just a tail risk,” analysts led by Michael Wilson wrote, putting the odds of one over the next year at 35%, up from 20% in March.

They estimate the S&P 500 could plunge as much as 20% to 3,000 points, from current levels of 3,770, if the U.S. falls into recession, citing earnings that tend to fall an average of 14% during recessions—a marked turnaround from record profits and 25% growth last year.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives—or the risk of one is extinguished,” the analysts said, adding that market weakness will likely continue over the next three to six months in the face of “very stubborn” inflation readings.

With high prices deterring some consumer spending, Morgan Stanley says stocks tied to discretionary spending, like those in retail, hotels, restaurants and clothing, are at higher risk of a downturn, while those tied to the internet, payments and durable household goods (like appliances and computers) are less at risk.

The note comes the same day Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the U.S. economy will “more likely than not” face a recession in the near term, echoing concerns raised by several other top business leaders and financial institutions following last week’s steeper-than-expected hike in key interest rates, which tend to deter spending by making borrowing more expensive.

Morgan Stanley’s not alone in raising recession odds this week. In a note to clients Monday, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said the firm now sees “recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” given the Fed’s more aggressive rate hike, putting the odds of a recession over the next two years at 48%, up from 35% previously. The investment bank estimates tighter financial conditions could drag down GDP as much as 2 percentage points over the next year.

Restaurants are most at risk of a pullback in spending, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of some 2,000 consumers. Roughly 75% of respondents said they’ll cut back on dining out over the next six months, while 60% said they’d do so on deliveries and takeout from restaurants. Though driving much of the inflationary gains, essential items like gas and groceries should see more resilient spending, with roughly 40% of consumers saying they’d cut back on either.

Major stock indexes plunged into bear market territory last week ahead of the Fed’s largest interest rate hike in 28 years, and the gloomy sentiment has ushered in waves of layoffs among recently booming technology and real estate companies. “We don’t believe the Fed can stop the issues that are causing inflation on the supply side without absolutely wrecking the economy, but at this point, it looks like they are resigned to the fact that it must be done,” says Brett Ewing, chief market strategist of First Franklin Financial Services. Goldman Sachs has warned clients it expects another 75-basis-point hike in July.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Source: Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession—These Industries Are Most At Risk

The best hope for stocks right now is a recession that crushes inflation and allows the Fed to slow, stop or even reverse rate hikes.

Why it matters: Down 20.5% so far in 2022, it’s the ugliest year for the S&P since 1962. The drop vaporized $9 trillion in paper wealth, delivering a psychological shock to millions whose retirement is mostly in stocks.

Driving the news: Facing persistent inflation, the Fed delivered its largest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday.

  • The increase is the monetary-policy equivalent of stomping on the country’s economic brakes — sharply increasing the risk that growth contracts.
  • Despite the recent beating shares have taken, the Fed’s announcement was greeted with open arms by investors. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%. The Nasdaq rose 2.5%. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 — which is more closely tied to short-term ups and downs of the economy — rose less, at just 1.4%.

The big picture: A huge rate hike that raises the risk of recession may sound like a bad thing for stocks — but with inflation still rising, it isn’t.

  • Essentially, investors are saying they prefer a big, sharp Fed-induced economic shock now if it quickly gets inflation under control. In theory, that could allow lower rates to return after inflation is vanquished.
  • Low interest rates have been crucial to the performance of stocks over the last decade.

Context: While Americans have a habit of looking at the stock market as an economic indicator, the linkage between economic growth and stock market performance is surprisingly weak, and, some academics say, nonexistent. The most extreme example of this reality arose during the bleakest moments of the COVID-related recession.

  • In April 2020, the U.S. economy was essentially on life support. Unemployment that month was 14.7%. There were, quite literally, bread lines miles long.
  • That month the S&P 500 posted its best month in 33 years, rising nearly 13%.

What gives? Well, in late March 2020, the Federal Reserve had to cut interest rates to zero and restart money-printing programs do deal with the COVID crisis. (The Federal government also began dumping what would ultimately be trillions of dollars into the economy to keep people afloat.)

The intrigue: But don’t recessions hurt corporate earnings? Wouldn’t that make stocks fall?

  • Earnings are one ingredient in stock prices, and they can definitely fall during recessions. But recently, interest rates — essentially the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — have played a more important role in establishing stock prices than earnings.
  • That’s because those interest rates largely determine the valuation multiple — otherwise known as a price-to-earnings ratio — investors use to determine the price they’re willing to pay for those future earnings (effectively, the price of a stock).
  • TL;DR: Higher rates = lower valuations, and vice versa.
  • So, even if earnings are expected to fall, stock prices can still rise, if valuations rise enough. Those valuations are largely determined by interest rates — and those rates are largely determined by Fed decisions.

The Federal Reserve made an aggressive new move in its campaign to bring down inflation Wednesday, raising its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the steepest rate hike since 1994 — and indicated another similar move could be coming next month.

Driving the news: In addition to increasing their target for short-term interest rates to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75% Fed officials projected that their target rate will reach 3.4% late this year, far higher than the 1.9% they envisioned in March. Mortgages, car loans and credit card debt are all about to get more expensive.

Yields on U.S. government bonds — known as Treasuries — rocketed in recent days, as Friday’s inflation report convinced many that a combination of persistently high inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve interest hikes, is on the way. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to nearly 3.50% in recent days, a level not seen since 2011……

  Matt Phillips

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Five Oversold Small Cap Stocks And One Mid Cap For Bear Market Bargain Hunters

The S&P 500 is hitting new 2022 lows in this year’s brutal selloff leading up to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting where the Federal Reserve’s policy committee is expected to hike short-term interest rates aggressively to tamp down inflation. The large cap index is down 22% from its peak on the first trading day of the year and tumbled 10% in just the past week as the latest readings on inflation showed price increases accelerating. For small caps, the market’s stumble into bear market territory has been exceptionally severe, with the Russell 2000 index down 30% from its peak last fall and back to pre-pandemic levels.

There could be plenty of near-term volatility ahead as the Fed accelerates its rate-tightening cycle. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both expect a hike of 75 basis points this week, even though Fed chair Jerome Powell dismissed that possibility at its last meeting a month ago. Last week’s 8.6% inflation reading put central bankers on their heels. But with the stock bloodbath already well underway, investors and asset managers are licking their chops at some valuations, if they have dry powder to deploy.

“The risk in the stock market is far lower today than it was six months ago just by virtue of the correction that we’ve seen. A lot of the excesses are being flushed out as we speak,” says Nicholas Galluccio, co-portfolio manager of the $57 million Teton Westwood SmallCap Equity fund. “We think it’s a perfect setup for possibly a strong 2023.”

Galluccio’s fund has outperformed the market, losing 13% so far this year after a 30% gain in 2021, to earn a 5-star rating on Morningstar. He’s been on offense this year adding to his positions in several small caps trading at low valuations, including Carmel, Indiana’s KAR Auction Services, which builds wholesale used car marketplaces and generated $2.3 billion in 2021 revenue.

Used car retailer Carvana bought its physical auction segment for $2.2 billion in February, larger than the market cap of the company at the time, though the proceeds were used to pay down debt. The acquisition prompted a 38% one-day pop in KAR’s stock, but it has given back most of those gains in the recent correction. The deal hasn’t been as kind to Carvana, which has lost 91% of its value this year.

“We got very lucky that Carvana we believe overpaid for their physical auction business for $2 billion, which is an enormous sum,” Galluccio says. “Now they’re strictly digital with a virtually debt-free balance sheet.”

Another of Galluccio’s picks is Texas-based Flowserve (FLS), which manufactures flow control equipment like pumps and valves. Many of its customers are petrochemical refiners and exploration and production companies in the energy industry. Most energy-linked businesses have had a strong year with the price of crude oil surging, though Flowserve has lagged with a 5% decline. Its bookings rose 15% in the first quarter to $1.1 billion, and Galluccio expects its margins to improve as it builds its backlog.

Value investors are also looking at oversold areas of the market for stocks trading at tiny multiples and now offering attractive dividend yields. John Buckingham, portfolio manager and editor of The Prudent Speculator newsletter, likes the Whirlpool Corp. (WHR), a century-old home appliance manufacturer headquartered in Benton Charter, Michigan. With home sales falling, Whirlpool has exposure to an anticipated recession, but its stock is down 34% this year, trading at six times earnings, with a dividend yield over 4% and an appetite for buying back shares. While not a small cap, at $8.7 billion in market capitalization, this mid-cap has long been a favorite of value investors.

“Lower home sales are certainly a headwind, but the market has already discounted something far worse than what we think will ultimately occur,” Buckingham says. “If we have a quote-unquote ‘mild recession,’ I think that many of the businesses have already been priced for a severe recession.”

Another consumer business Buckingham singles out from his portfolio: Foot Locker (FL). The shoe retailer is down 36% this year, including a 30% drop in one day on February 25 when it said its revenue from its biggest supplier Nike NKE +2.5% would decline this year as the apparel giant increasingly sells directly to customers. Now, Foot Locker trades at a tiny 3.5 times trailing earnings, with a 5.7% dividend yield to attract income investors.

While those value plays are cheap, Jim Oberweis, chief investment officer of small-cap growth firm Oberweis Asset Management, makes the case that growth stock valuations are even more attractive after taking the worst of the selloff so far. The Russell 2000 growth index is down 31% this year, and Oberweis’ small-cap opportunities fund has declined 22%. One outperformer is its top holding, Lantheus Holdings (LNTH), which has already more than doubled this year.

Lantheus makes nuclear imaging products that can be injected into patients and make body parts glow during medical scans to help diagnose diseases. It received FDA approval last year for a product called Pylarify which can identify prostate cancer, and fourth-quarter revenue rose 38%. The Massachusetts-based company trades at about 20 times expected 2022 earnings.

“It’s very hard to find a company at 20 times earnings with those growth numbers and those kinds of moats in terms of patents and defensible market positions that are very difficult for competitors to attack,” Oberweis says.

Oberweis boasts that Lantheus has no correlation to the broader economic environment and recessionary fears. Some of his other top holdings do have some inflation exposure but have already been deeply discounted this year and are trading at multiples more typical of value names. Axcelis Technologies (ACLS), which sells components to chipmakers like Intel INTC and TSMC to make semiconductors, grew its revenue by 40% in 2021 and another 53% in the first quarter of 2022, but has declined by 25% this year and trades at 15 times trailing earnings.

“Small growth stocks, which have been bludgeoned, I think have much better prospects to do well in an inflationary environment because many more innovative companies have pricing power, the ability to quickly raise prices and get the customers to actually pay them,” Oberweis says. “I don’t know if it’ll be this year or next year, but I think people buying right now are likely to earn significant positive returns because of the low valuations.”

I’m a reporter on Forbes’ money team covering investing trends and Wall Street’s difference-makers. I’ve reported on the world’s billionaires for Forbes’

Source: Five Oversold Small Cap Stocks And One Mid Cap For Bear Market Bargain Hunters

In trading on Tuesday, shares of the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (Symbol: VB) entered into oversold territory, changing hands as low as $180.29 per share. We define oversold territory using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a technical analysis indicator used to measure momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.

In the case of Vanguard Small-Cap, the RSI reading has hit 29.8 — by comparison, the RSI reading for the S&P 500 is currently 33.6. A bullish investor could look at VB’s 29.8 reading as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side.

Looking at a chart of one year performance , VB’s low point in its 52 week range is $180.29 per share, with $241.06 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $183.66. Vanguard Small-Cap shares are currently trading down about 0.5% on the day.

ACV Auctions (ACVA)

The company has been public for just under one year, having held its IPO on March 24 of last year. The initial offering saw ACV put more than 19 million shares on the market, at a price of $25 each, and the company raised $414 million in new capital. Since the IPO, however, ACV stock price has fallen by 63%.

Despite the fall in share price, ACV has been reporting solid year-over-year revenue gains. In the last quarter reported, 3Q21, the company showed $91.8 million at the top line, up 36% yoy. This included a 41% gain in Marketplace and Service revenue, which accounted for $78.3 million of the total.

Arbe Robotics (ARBE)

The company entered the public markets in October of last year, completing a SPAC combination at that time with Industrial Tech Acquisitions. The ARBE stock started trading on the NASDAQ on October 8, and the company realized $118 million in gross proceeds from the transaction. The stock quickly surged to a peak above $14 in November, and has since fallen 48% from that level.

Even though the stock has fallen, Arbe has had some solid wins to report in recent months. BAIC Group, a Chinese auto manufacturer, announced in November that Arbe’s radar systems are expected to be installed on BAIC Group’s new vehicles going forward, and that same month, Weifu, a Chinese tier-1 auto parts supplier launched a customer road-pilot phase of Arbe’s radar systems and chipsets. Weifu expects to have the systems in full production by the end of this year.

ALX Oncology Holdings (ALXO)

The company has had several recent updates on its evorpacept programs, and released the announcements in January. The updates include the expected initiation of a Phase 2/3 clinical trial for the treatment of great gastric/GEJ cancer. This trial will evaluate evorpacept in combination with several other therapeutic agents, including Herceptin (trastuzumab), Cyramza (ramucirumab) and paclitaxel.

Another upcoming catalyst announced in January concerns the Phase 1b trial of an evorpacept-azacitidine combo in the treatment of MDS, myelodysplastic syndromes. The company will be releasing the dose optimization readout of this trial during this year.

The final January update came from the FDA, which granted evorpacept its Orphan Drug Designation in the treatment of gastric cancer and gastroesophageal junction cancer. Orphan Drug Designation comes with financial benefits, including tax credits and user fee exemptions for the company….

More contents:

JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance. Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.

The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.

These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.

Despite the crypto slump, banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin is massively undervalued. Maintaining its estimate of bitcoin’s fair value at $38,000, the bank today reiterated the assessment it gave the asset in February when the cryptocurrency was trading around $43,400. This price is approximately 28% higher than its current level of $29,757.

In a note to clients issued Wednesday, the bank has also stated that it is replacing real estate with digital, or crypto, assets as its preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds, citing “potential lagged repricing” in private equity, private debt and real estate. Alternative assets typically refer to ​​investments that aren’t stocks, bonds or cash.

The appraisal is a nod of confidence to bitcoin, which is currently trading at less than half its all-time high of $68,721, and the broader category in general. In addition to rising interest rates and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the cryptocurrency market is grappling with the $50 billion collapse of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token LUNA. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently sits at $1.3 trillion, a dramatic decline from $3 trillion in November.

“The past month’s crypto market correction looks more like capitulation relative to last January/February and going forward we see upside for bitcoin and crypto markets more generally,” the bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in the report.

The strategists also believe that “the trajectory for VC funding would be crucial in helping the crypto market to avoid the long winter of 2018/2019”, which followed the initial coin offerings boom. Just today, Ethereum scaling startup Starkware raised $100 million at an $8 billion valuation and venture giant Andreessen Horowitz announced a $1.5 billion allotment for crypto investments as part of its larger $4.5 billion fund.

“Thus far there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post-Terra’s collapse. Of the $25 billion VC funding year-to-date, almost $4 billion came after Terra,” the strategists noted. “Our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted.”

I report on cryptocurrencies and other applications of blockchain technology. I also edit the weekly Forbes Crypto Confidential newsletter and contribute to our premium research service

Source: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

Price Prediction: How Profitable Will These Coins Be? — Dogecoin (DOGE), Parody Coin (PARO), and Ripple (XRP)

In Defence of Cryptocurrency – Christine Lagarde, Are You Serious?

Gaming Projects You Should Know in 2022: Decentraland (MANA), Enjin (ENJ), and Pac-Man Frog (PAC)

These Undervalued Coins Could Be Your Ticket to Being a Millionaire: Polkadot (DOT) and Quitriam Finance (QTM)

Chronoly (CRNO) Takes Number 1 Spot at Project To Invest In 2022 Over Fantom (FTM) and Anchor Protocol (ANC)

The Nightly Mint: Daily NFT Recap

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Throttled After LUNA Collapse

Bitcoin Consolidation Uninspiring, But Run To Near $33k On The Cards

Bitcoin Trading Volume Plummets Down From Recent Top

Bitcoin Sets Record Streak For Bloodliest Weekly Trend yet

JPMorgan: Bitcoin Is Undervalued; Says Fair Price Is 28% Higher

Market Sentiment Dangerously Negative As Crypto Fear Index Drops To Two-Year Low

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Here’s How Long It Takes For Stocks To Recover From Bear Markets

With the stock market on one of its worst losing streaks in decades amid a relentless selloff that has pushed the S&P 500 nearly 20% below its record highs, recession risks are rising—but history shows that not all bear markets lead to long-term downturns and stocks can often rebound over the next year.

The benchmark S&P 500 index briefly fell into a bear market last Friday—at one point down over 20% from its peak in January—and continues to hover near that territory as surging inflation and rising rates lead to recession fears.

The last bear market was in March 2020, when coronavirus pandemic lockdowns sent the U.S. economy into a recession, but that downturn was uncharacteristically brief compared to others in the past (the bear market between 2007 and 2009 lasted for 546 days).

“No two bear markets are exactly alike,” notes Bespoke Investment Group, pointing out that 8 out of 14 prior bear markets since World War II have preceded recessions, while the other 6 did not.

Once the S&P 500 does hit the 20% threshold, stocks typically fall by another 12% and it takes the index an average of 95 days to hit the end of a bear market, according to Bespoke data.

In more than half of the 14 bear markets since 1945, the S&P 500 hit a low point within two months of initially falling below the 20% threshold—and forward returns were largely positive, Bespoke points out, with the index rising an average of 7% and nearly 18%, respectively, over 6- and 12-month periods.

If the U.S. economy can avoid falling into a recession, then stocks would be in a better position going forward: Bear markets that occur before a recession are more prolonged (lasting 449 days compared to 198 days with no recession) with steeper losses (an average decline of 35% compared to 28%), according to Bespoke.

It has been several decades since the stock market has had such a long streak of heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently posted its eighth down week—its longest losing streak since around the time of the Great Depression in 1932, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have moved lower for seven straight weeks, their longest losing streaks since the dot-com crash in 2001.

The last four times the Nasdaq posted such a streak of weekly losses of 1% or more was in 1973, 1980, 1990 and 2001, according to Bespoke data. In every instance, those streaks occurred “either right before or very early into a recession.”

The S&P 500 has only posted a losing streak of seven weeks or more three times—in 1970, 1980 and 2001, according to Nationwide’s chief of investment research, Mark Hackett. “Unfortunately, the index was negative over the next 12 months each time,” he says. The index could tank by between 11% and 24% if the economy falls into a recession in the near-term future, major Wall Street firms have warned.

“Persistent inflation, another Fed policy mistake and recession fears have unnerved investors,” with the S&P 500 briefly falling into bear market territory, says Edward Moya, senior market analyst for Oanda. The widespread selling will likely “only accelerate” as investors will remain wary until the Fed “starts to show signs that they are worried about financial conditions and that they may stop tightening so aggressively.”

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires

Source: Here’s How Long It Takes For Stocks To Recover From Bear Markets

Critics:

A chaotic day on Wall Street extended the longest period of market turmoil since 2001, with stocks on Friday briefly descending into bear market territory, a symbolic marker of investors’ deep pessimism about the health of the global economy and the buying power of the American consumer.

The S&P 500 has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, its worst stretch since the dot-com bubble burst more than two decades ago. After a 3 percent drop this week, the index is down 14 percent since early April.

Friday afternoon, the S&P 500 crossed the bear market threshold of a 20 percent decline from its peak on Jan. 3. But with less than 30 minutes left before trading ended, after hours of churn and a drop of as much as 2.3 percent, the market rallied and ended a hair above where it had started the day.

That was little consolation for investors, many of whom have grown accustomed to years of robust returns and have never seen a market upheaval like this.

With this week’s relentless slide and Friday’s wild swing was a constant worry on Wall Street that rising inflation, compounded by the war in Ukraine, might tip the economy into a recession. At the heart of those fears was fresh evidence reported this week from retailers like Walmart and Target that rising costs were now hitting corporate America.

During the darkest days of the pandemic, the American economy was propelled by consumers. Even as the costs of goods, transportation and labor increased, companies were able to pocket record profits by raising prices, confident that people would continue buying. But this week brought indications that some consumers may have reached their limit, and profits have started to shrink.

“What the companies are telling us is that they are starting to notice that their consumer is responding to inflation,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS. “We were worried about this moment and we were waiting for this moment, and now it’s here.”

Recessions have often followed bear markets, though one does not necessarily cause the other. A bear market occurred in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, but it was the shortest on record, lasting just 33 days before stocks began to rally. Less than six months later, the S&P 500 began hitting new highs again, climbing 42 percent above its prepandemic level before starting to slide in January. Now the index is down more than 18 percent from its high point.

Friday’s turbulent trading came after months of investors fretting about how serious and long-lasting inflation would be and how aggressively the Federal Reserve would have to raise rates to slow the rising cost of living.

James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said during an interview on Fox Business on Friday that raising interest rates by half a point at coming central bank meetings was “a good plan for now.”

Mr. Bullard struck a relatively unconcerned tone about markets, despite the day’s volatility. “You would expect with the Fed raising rates, that all of these assets — trillions of dollars worldwide — would have to be repriced,” Mr. Bullard said.

What set this week apart was a grim earnings report on Tuesday from Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, which confirmed many investors’ worst fears about inflation.

For the first time in many years, Walmart said its quarterly profits had fallen, a sign to many analysts that the retailer could not pass along many of its rising costs to consumers without risking a slowdown in sales. Target and Kohl’s also said quarterly profits had plunged, adding to Wall Street’s unease.

Walmart said that some of its customers were buying less-expensive meats and other food items as costs soared, and that sales of certain discretionary goods like clothing had slowed, as budget-conscious shoppers focused instead on buying necessities like groceries. The company’s executives said they saw no signs of inflation starting to abate.

“There is a lot of uncertainty moving forward,” Walmart’s chief executive, Doug McMillon, said in a conference call with Wall Street analysts on Tuesday. “Things are very fluid.”

Globally, investors can find little comfort. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the response from other countries has disrupted crucial supplies of energy, wheat and other staples. Poor countries face a gathering catastrophe over hunger and debt.

Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary, said high food and energy prices were creating “stagflationary effects” — the combination of high inflation and a stagnating economy. China’s economy, the world’s second-largest after that of the United States, is laboring under the government’s strict pandemic lockdowns. Before the war in Ukraine and Covid’s resurgence in China, the International Monetary Fund was projecting global growth of 4.4 percent this year. Now its forecast is 3.6 percent.

Wall Street had been expecting that torrid consumer demand would have to slow at some point. Government stimulus checks that provided Americans with billions in spending money during the pandemic stopped long ago. The hope of both the Trump and Biden administrations was that the economy could eventually be weaned off the stimulus and that consumer demand would stay relatively strong.

But inflation, which has risen faster and remained more persistent than many investors and even the Fed initially expected, has thrown the recovery into doubt.

Unemployment is approaching the lowest rate in decades, and the economy has regained nearly 95 percent of the 22 million jobs lost at the height of coronavirus lockdowns. Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose 5.5 percent in the year through April, but many of those gains are being eroded by inflation. Over that same period, prices rose 8.3 percent.

“The government just turbocharged the economy, and we were partying on buying goods,” said Scott Mushkin, the founder of R5 Capital, a retail-focused consulting and financial research firm. “People wondered what the hangover would be like. We have never seen anything like this.”

To be sure, some retailers said that not every consumer was pulling back or shifting spending. Walmart said better-off shoppers continued to spend freely on bigger-ticket items like patio furniture, and Target said it was not seeing a broad retreat in spending, either. Home Depot, which has benefited from a pandemic remodeling boom, said it was seeing no big slowdown in business.

But Mr. Sole of UBS worries that if prices continue to climb, higher-income consumers will eventually shift their spending, too. “Right now, lower-income consumers are feeling inflation more acutely,” he said. “The worry is, what if it affects all income and demographic groups?”For months, the mixed signals have been confounding Wall Street as it tries to forecast future profits and how high interest rates will climb.

The current conditions are also confusing to even the most experienced executives, who are finding it difficult to plan their inventory and staffing. Walmart, which is known for successfully navigating the last period of persistently high inflation, in the 1970s, acknowledged this week that it had too many employees in the first quarter and that it had not anticipated how rapidly the increase in gasoline prices would inflate costs in its supply chain. The company’s 25 percent decline in profit from the previous year was a big surprise to analysts.

“If these companies can’t handle this, it tells you something really unusual is afoot,” Mr. Mushkin said.

By:

S&P 500 Briefly Plunges Into Bear Market As Stocks Fall For Seventh Week In A Row

Here’s The Worst Case Scenario For Stocks, According To Goldman, Deutsche Bank And Bank Of America

Investors Have ‘Nowhere To Hide’ As S&P 500 Nears Bear Market Territory

Warren Buffett’s $51 Billion Stock Market Shopping Spree: Here’s What He’s Buying

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