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Bitcoin Isn’t Down Because of China, It’s Down Because You Don’t Need It

Crypto markets are not reeling this week because China is “cracking down on Blockchain.” Tokens have been getting slammed since the summer because most of them are unnecessary, and because the need for coins that may offer some utility is not as imminent as buyers thought it would be. This is most obvious with King Crypto, bitcoin, whose purported use-case as a store of value is not looking very compelling.

The risk-reward in bitcoin has always been an extreme one, which is why its biggest proponents/salespeople assigned astronomic price targets to it. Widespread adoption is an extremely low-probability event with an enormous payoff if the stars align. And let’s be clear: the things that need to happen for the world to turn to bitcoin – complete central bank impotence, widespread currency debasement, falling equity markets and the abandonment of traditional gold – means betting on bitcoin is essentially betting against the house. Hence the “short bankers, long bitcoin” meme. To say bitcoin will offer a 100x return yet also say it’s a highly probabilistic event is inherently contradictory and hugely dishonest.

The market is now realizing this. As the global economic slowdown of the last nine months shows signs of stabilization and the Federal Reserve sees no need for more interest-rate cuts, the case for bitcoin is taking body blows. None of the stories about adoption are turning out, big tech giants from Facebook to Google are doing everything possible to dominate electronic pay and finance, and projects designed to make bitcoin a means of exchange are either slow, fruitless, or both.

In short, the house does not look like it’s in a losing position just yet. And so bitcoin is getting killed. Sure, the U.S. and China could have a major fallout, get into a currency war, and Chinese citizens could rush to crypto as a way to get money out of the system. That’s why bitcoin will never be worthless, and why every investor should watch its price action, but that scenario is looking way, way further away from reality than the cryptoknights had so many believe.

Today In: Money

Bitcoin’s violent moves are a factor of the speculative nature described above. Because its probability of success is low, it is closer to a roulette wheel than any traditional asset class. Average people were lured into the bitcoin sales pitch in 2017 when the economy was tearing hot, cash flow was heavy, stocks were churning out huge gains, and people could afford to take a gamble. Why not roll the dice?

Now those buyers are losing faith in their chances of winning, and are using this year’s rally to get out. As the fundamental reason for owning bitcoin as a store of value also loses luster amid a stabilizing economic situation, the true believers may start bailing out too. If it continues, it should be a warning sign to more traditional investors who made a similar bet in gold, and maybe even those who ran to Treasury bonds as a hedge against chaos, too.

I am the Lead Anchor at TD Ameritrade Network, and the host of Morning Trade Live and Market On Close. I co-anchored Bloomberg BusinessWeek on TV and contributed to Bloomberg Markets and What’d You Miss while I was with Bloomberg beginning in June 2014. I also covered U.S. stocks and equity derivatives for Bloomberg News. Prior to that, I was a reporter at The Bond Buyer, primarily covering the sell side of the municipal bond industry, writing stories about bond insurers, underwriters, ratings services, bond counsel and general market trends. Early in my career I covered metropolitan news for the New York Post. I have a bachelor’s degree in materials science and engineering from Cornell University.

Source: Bitcoin Isn’t Down Because of China, It’s Down Because You Don’t Need It

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Crypto Analyst Warns 2019 Bitcoin Rally Set to ‘Blow Off’ – Plus Ethereum, Ripple and XRP, Litecoin, Stellar, Tron | The Daily Hodl

From a warning about Bitcoin’s 2019 rally to new support for Stellar Lumens, here’s a look at some of the stories breaking in the world of crypto.

Bitcoin

A prominent crypto analyst warns the 2019 Bitcoin rally is an “exchange driven pump” that’s due for a significant pullback. According to Willy Woo, Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is now way out of whack.

“Presently the market price of BTC has outstripped organic investor flow unseen since the bull market mania phases of 2013 and 2017. Never before have we seen such a divergence so early in the bull market.”

The NVT ratio measures the utility value of Bitcoin according to the number of transactions on the network relative to the price. Because on-chain investor volumes are in the normal range, Woo says the only explanation is “a quant fund driven short squeeze devoid of any true investor volume.”

Whales can short squeeze a majority-short market by buying it up until the shorts are liquidated, forcing a torrent of buys that inflate the price, Woo explains.

“If you have sufficient capital. You can keep buying to liquidate the bears. It’s extremely profitable. You only stop when it’s no longer profitable. At the $8k-9k mark the market switched from short to majority long. This put a cap on the profitability of short squeezing.

“I’m awaiting this exchange driven pump to blow off, a proper retrace, and only then do I think real investor flows will come in and drive the true organic bull market.”

Ethereum

Ernst & Young’s global blockchain leader, Paul Brody, says blockchain is poised to trigger a fundamental transformation of how enterprises do business.

The accounting and consulting giant EY is building on Ethereum, and Brody says use cases for audits and supply chain management are some early examples of prime use cases for the technology.

“What I hope you’ll take away from this today is that blockchain is maturing. We have real products, real customers, real use cases, real value creation, stuff that’s in operations, and we also have a road map for where things can and should go in the future and how this can have an ever-bigger impact…

Blockchains we think are going to be the future way in which companies model and manage their business processes and, in particular, we can basically model any process between two enterprises or two agencies or two governments as a combination of tokens to represent assets and items of value and contract.”  

Ripple and XRP

A presentation from Ripple’s chief technology officer David Schwartz is now online. At the We Are Developers in Berlin, Schwartz talks about the future of blockchain beyond the hype.

Litecoin

The Litecoin Foundation’s unique methods for raising funds to support the LTC ecosystem continue.

The Foundation has started to ship custom Litecoin cufflinks and tie bars, with a signed certificate of authenticity from LTC creator Charlie Lee.

Stellar

Crypto.com has added Stellar Lumens (XLM) to its Wallet & Card app.

Users of the app can now purchase XLM at true cost with no fees, with both credit cards and bank transfers supported. People can also use XLM with Crypto.com’s MCO Visa Card, making it easier to convert Stellar’s token into fiat for purchases from everyday merchants.

Tron

Tron’s latest report on the network’s decentralized app ecosystem is out.

According to the report, four new gaming DApps launched on the network this week, along with a decentralized exchange called SunDex.

Source: Crypto Analyst Warns 2019 Bitcoin Rally Set to ‘Blow Off’ – Plus Ethereum, Ripple and XRP, Litecoin, Stellar, Tron | The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Form Fresh Trading Ranges Following Recent Plunge | NewsBTC

Following the cryptocurrency market’s recent plunge that occurred when Bitcoin failed to stabilize above the $4,000 price level, the crypto markets have seen further instability, with many altcoins continuing to drop today. Now, the markets, and Bitcoin in particular, appear to be forming fresh trading ranges that could be highly profitable for risk tolerant traders who play them correctly.

Source: Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Form Fresh Trading Ranges Following Recent Plunge | NewsBTC

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