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Bitcoin Has Crashed–What Now?

Bitcoin (BTC) has crashed. No one really knows why but in my model we should be in for “good” news on the China trade war or some such China-related information that is strong for the Chinese currency. This is only a theory but if it is correct, bitcoin will either rally vertically if no news breaks or the news will appear very soon. This is being written at 12 p.m. GMT September 25 and the news ought to be out there by no later than the end of the week.

If I’m wrong and there is no such news and the price stays down or falls more still with no positive trade war news then my bitcoin theory, which has served so well, will be severely challenged. In any event, bitcoin has crashed. The dreaded flag has broken to the downside and the bottom is anyone’s guess. The decision what to do next comes back to the schism between believing BTC will be worth $100,000-plus a coin or $0 a coin. You have to pick your side.

Way back before this year’s rally, I stated there is another way of looking at this price action. In commodities a big bubble is followed by a series of smaller and smaller echoes of the initial price shock which erupt over time as the years pass.

Each new price eruption is smaller than the last until the original bubble is all forgotten about. If this is your model, this BTC bubble echo is now dead and BTC will fall back to the $2,000-$3,000 range or even lower. Then after a year or two there will be another small vertical and on this pattern will go, until bitcoin is all  but forgotten.

Today In: Money

The alternate model is the tech boom, where the original bubble was replaced by another bigger rally, one we have still not seen the end of. Is bitcoin a commodity or a value added instrument? Bitcoin isn’t like gold or copper, where a price rise creates a glut.

Or is it? For me this is a very tempting model because I experienced it as a youngster and saw it play out all the while everyone continued to wish for the return of the moment when copper or gold went to the moon. However, bitcoin is not going to flood the market as miners pour resources into a race to over produce.
Bitcoin protects itself from exactly the economic reason why high prices are the solution to high prices.The choice is clear for players in this game of speculation, steer clear or buy the dip. I’ll be buying the dip but not in a hurry. This is the chart of what has happened:

Bitcoin has crashed

Credit: ADVFN

The flag got broken to the downside and it’s clear as day that a lot of people took this as a cue to get out, causing a panic. I’ve put some levels equivalent to some zones where the price might settle. I will be buying a little in the coming days and more if we hit $6,000 and a lot if we see $4,000.

Meanwhile, there was been a strange crash in hash rate before this price fall, so everyone is free to link that up with this fall. There may have been a BTC miner who needed to sell a big chunk of BTC and in this fragile market with everyone staring at the same delicate chart pattern, it doesn’t take much to create an avalanche. I must admit to staring at this chart before it crashed thinking I should sell.
This would have been a good move but experience has taught me that you can win on the exit but lose on the reentry. It’s great missing a fall but you can also miss the rally which can end up even more painful. This is the basic lesson of the randomness of markets. Back the direction you believe is the long-term outcome and buy the dips or don’t play at all. Bitcoin is like backing Apple when it was on the edge of going bust: do you believe in the future or not?

If you do, you hold forever and buy the dips. The only thing you mustn’t do with the position is let that put your finances at risk or hurt your sanity. As a believer I will buy this dip, in the same way as I bought the last, little and often. For those who don’t believe in the long term you should stay well clear.Be among the first to get important crypto and blockchain news and information with Forbes Crypto Confidential. It’s free, sign up now.

—-Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors website
  ADVFN.com

and author of
Be RichThe Game in Wall Street

and
Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginner’s Guide

Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards in 2018.

I am the CEO of stocks and investment website ADVFN . As well as running Europe and South America’s leading financial market website I am a prolific financial writer. I wrote a stock column for WIRED – which described me as a ‘Market Maven’ – and am a regular columnist for numerous financial publications around the world. I have written for titles including: Working Money, Active Trader, SFO and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in the US and have written for pretty much every UK national newspaper. In the last few years I have become a financial thriller writer and have just had my first non-fiction title published: 101 ways to pick stock market winners. Find me here on US Amazon. You’ll also see me regularly on CNBC, CNN, SKY, Business News Network and the BBC giving my take on the markets.

Source: Bitcoin Has Crashed–What Now?

26.6K subscribers
Check out the Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis Academy here: https://bit.ly/2EMS6nY In this video we discuss the recent Bitcoin crash, and the affects that Bitcoin crash may have on the Bitcoin market over the coming days. Bitcoin crashed nearly $2,000 yesterday while we were livestreaming, and found support around the Bitcoin support level of $11,700 as expected. Whether Bitcoin will continue it’s march ever higher from here, or if Bitcoin has now started a longer Bitcoin correction is yet to be seen, but we do know that Bitcoin has finally had opportunity to consolidate the gains Bitcoin has made over the past few weeks. – – – If you enjoyed the video, please leave a like, and subscribe! – – – Follow me on Instagram & Twitter: @cryptojebb Join the Discord! https://discord.gg/59jGjJy #Bitcoin #BitcoinToday #BitcoinNews I am not a financial adviser, this is not financial advice. I strongly encourage all to do their own research before doing anything with their money. All investments/trades/buys/sells etc. should be made at your own risk with your own capital. Spare Change? BTC 127eLjKTBKU9HTFhYowCDC4D3JBxonVk15 ETH 0x5115ACa82edf204760fE3B351c08a48d6004D89B LTC LSKXx3fQRK5LMowGznVvo6A9NtmtaQaoqP Please do not feel obligated to donate, though donations are appreciated!

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Bitcoin: IRS Takes On The Crooks—And The Good Guys

Image result for bitcoin and IRS

Are cryptocurrencies reportable for FBAR? For Fatca? No and maybe.

Turns out there’s no FBAR mandate on your offshore bitcoin account. Is the government making a tactical retreat in its war on money launderers and tax cheats?

In response to a request for guidance from an accountants’ group, the Treasury Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has recently decreed that cryptocurrency accounts held by exchanges located outside the country don’t have to be disclosed.

That means you don’t have to confess your Binance assets on the Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts Report, alias FBAR. The report, which is filed on a form called Fincen 114, is required when a taxpayer’s financial assets (cash and securities) held in foreign institutions top $10,000.

Why the leniency? Mostly because the antiquated laws aimed at financial mischief simply can’t cope with crypto.

A rational observer would say that bitcoin, which is both a store of value and a medium of exchange, is money. But the IRS, enforcing legislation written in a pre-internet age, has concluded that cryptocurrencies are “property”—more like Picassos than pesos.

At some point the tax police will get up to speed. They’ll rewrite rules or get legislation including digital assets in the offshore reporting scheme. But they’ll still have a hard time ferreting out hidden wealth. Cryptocurrencies, already somewhat anonymous, are getting more so. There are tumblers that erase bitcoin trails and there are newer currencies designed to offer enhanced privacy.

To investors, crypto is an asset class that might warrant an allocation in a portfolio. Although cryptocurrencies are volatile, they have the virtue of being not very correlated to stocks and bonds that fall, directly or indirectly, under the spell of central banks.

To enforcers, crypto is nothing but trouble. Bitcoin was the common currency of Silk Road, that bazaar of contraband whose manager got a life sentence. Russian hackers used bitcoin in their election meddling. A press release in May from Immigration & Customs Enforcement, crowing about the indictment of an alleged fentanyl vendor, gives bitcoin a prominent mention.

Donald Trump doesn’t like crypto. His Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, complained recently that cryptocurrencies are being used illicitly. He vowed to produce regulations to keep them from turning into a new form of numbered Swiss bank account.

But aren’t bitcoins by their nature numbered accounts? The blockchain—a record of all transactions to date—is a string of integers, with no holders’ names attached. Still, holders can get nailed for doing something wrong.

Chain analysis software traces the history of a bitcoin as it moves from account to account. If at any point that coin passed through an exchange subject to U.S. know-your-customer rules (like Coinbase), the cops can get the name and taxpayer ID of someone who used the coin. That may give them a wedge, via subpoena or a threat of prosecution, to identify other participants in the chain of ownership.

And then there are users who make mistakes. Evidently the fellow accused of selling fentanyl wanted to convert bitcoins to dollars, and in the process of doing that transferred the coins to addresses that were controlled by federal agents. This is reminiscent of the bank robber who hops into what he thinks is a getaway car but turns out to be a police vehicle.

Cryptocurrency users who want their activities to be more cryptic have options. They can use one of the tumbler services that take in possibly dirty coins and replace them with randomly selected coins. They can use Monero or Zcash, currencies explicitly designed to be more private than bitcoin. And how is Secretary Mnuchin going to police Binance, the fast-growing coin repository that hops from jurisdiction to jurisdiction? It is now in Malta, where regulators are proud of their light touch.

Yet another way to keep coins hidden is to keep them in your own wallet instead of in the custody of an exchange. Just don’t lose the key.

Sean Golding, an Irvine, California attorney whose clientele includes global investors, says that you are under no obligation to report coins held in a wallet on your desktop, any more than you are obliged to report gold stored under your bed. You must, though, report and pay tax on profitable sales of either.

What about your account at an offshore exchange? Even with the recent dispensation from the IRS, Golding says, it might be a good idea to file the FBAR anyway. You might, after all, do some trading that temporarily turns bitcoins into dollars or euros. If your total of cash and securities held offshore exceeds $10,000, even for a day, the FBAR is mandatory.

The government takes the Fincen 114 form seriously. It’s trying to collect a $4.7 million fine from someone who forgot to fill it out.

Your account at a U.S. exchange needs no FBAR. The IRS can already see the account. Thus, Coinbase customers who neglect to declare gains from crypto sales can expect to hear from the feds.

What about Fatca? The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act is another disclosure regime, overlapping Fincen but with its own set of rules and different thresholds ($50,000 for a single taxpayer, $100,000 for a joint return filer). Play it safe, advises Golding. The recent guidance on FBAR doesn’t apply here. If you’re at or above the cutoff, file the Fatca report.

The FBAR must be filed electronically with Fincen, a Treasury unit separate from the IRS. Start here.

For Fatca, file Form 8938 with the 1040 you send to the IRS. It can be on paper. The form is here and the instructions are here.

A useful comparison between the FBAR and Fatca requirements is here.

This Journal of Accountancy report describes the recent guidance from Fincen.

The FBAR regs are here.

I aim to help you save on taxes and money management costs. I graduated from Harvard in 1973, have been a journalist for 44 years, and was editor of Forbes magazine from 1999 to 2010. Tax law is a frequent subject in my articles. I have been an Enrolled Agent since 1979. Email me at williambaldwinfinance — at — gmail — dot — com.

 

 

Source: Bitcoin: IRS Takes On The Crooks—And The Good Guys

The Large Bitcoin Collider Is Generating Trillions of Keys and Breaking Into Wallets – VICE

Since we first published this article, major security flaws in the Large Bitcoin Collider client have come to light. Check out our follow-up reporting on these issues here.

For nearly a year, a group of cryptography enthusiasts has been pooling their resources on a quixotic quest to brute-force crack one of bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms for creating wallet addresses. This is thought to be impossible today, but if they succeed, at least one element of bitcoin’s cryptography will be instantly obsolete.

It’s probably due to the scope of the challenge that the project is called the Large Bitcoin Collider, after the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest particle accelerator. But instead of new physics, the Large Bitcoin Collider is hunting cryptographic collisions—essentially proving that a supposedly unique and random string of numbers can be duplicated. More on collisions and their ramifications for bitcoin later, but along the way the LBC is using its computing power to try and bust open bitcoin wallets owned by other people, and potentially taking the coins inside.

Read More: The Great Physical Bitcoin Robbery

The basics are this: bitcoin addresses containing funds can be accessed by private keys, which are generated at the same time as the address. Technically, a number of private keys could work with any given address, but you’d need a huge amount of computing power to brute force your way through enough possibilities to find any of them. The LBC attempts to accomplish this by recruiting the computing power of anyone who’s willing to download and run their software.

Finding a private key that works with an existing wallet is a fast-and-loose version of “cracking,” and gives the attacker access to all the funds inside. But when someone in the LBC pool finds a working private key, do they get to keep the coins?

“In principle yes, although there is a process defined where—if someone appears with an alternate key—the pool members consider him the owner of the address,” “Rico,” the pseudonymous lead of LBC, told me in an email. He would only tell me that he’s a computer programmer “past his 40s,” who lives in Europe.

As for the legality of all this, LBC advises participants with a rather laissez-faire attitude.

“Depending on your jurisdiction, this may be considered theft and is therefore illegal,” the site’s FAQ states. “However, there are many jusrisdictions [sic] where you could perfectly legally claim 5-10% of the value found. So you should consider if you want 100% and become a criminal or if you get 10% and still be a law abiding citizen.”

The LBC has been working for just under a year. So far, Rico claims, the project has generated over 3,000 trillion private keys and checked them against existing bitcoin addresses to see if they work, and has found three that do and contain bitcoin. They’ve found over 30 private keys in total, some of which are for so-called “puzzle” addresses that are suspected to have been generated as easy bait for crackers.

“This project has been called many things: Impossible, illegal, pointless, cool, etc.”

Cracking wallets may seem malicious on the surface—and if an LBC participant knowingly steals funds, it might just be—but it also has research value. Bitcoin security researcher Ryan Castellucci has done work cracking wallets as a proof-of-concept in order to model attacker behaviour and defend against it.

“The thing that disappoints me about this is that they’re only checking addresses that have a balance instead of all addresses that have ever been used,” he said in an interview over the phone. “For research, it’s much more interesting to check all addresses that have ever been used, because that will show you if there’ve been weak addresses created in the past and if they’ve been cleaned out by attackers.”

But cracking wallets is just one part of the LBC’s mission. The other is to find a genuine cryptographic collision, which would mean it’s possible to generate inputs that, when put through the bitcoin address hashing algorithm, generate an identical pair. If it were ever to happen, bitcoin would have to use a new cryptographic algorithm for addresses. This would be similar to Google creating a collision with the once-popular SHA-1 cryptographic algorithm, which ended its usefulness for good.

Read More: I Broke Bitcoin

“Finding a P2PKH-collision [one cryptographic method of creating bitcoin addresses] would probably mean the end of P2PKH but not bitcoin,” Rico explained, regarding the ramifications of finding a collision. “Bitcoin would evolve with new address types. Most certainly it wouldn’t ‘die’ because of this.”

Castellucci also urged caution when it comes to getting all riled up about the LBC’s search for a cryptographic collision in bitcoin.

“To effectively find [a collision], you would have to find some way to generate [keys] much, much faster than is currently known to be possible,” he said. “Unless they find some sort of breakthrough in cracking techniques, the brute force strategy they’re using poses no threat to anybody’s bitcoin.”

“Someone could play the lottery three weeks in a row and win every time,” he explained. “That theoretically could happen, but it’s safe to assume it won’t.” Castellucci isn’t alone in this belief. Others, on the /r/bitcoin subreddit for example, have been much less kind and called the LBC “pointless.” But that hasn’t deterred Rico.

“Since it’s inception [around] 8 months ago, this project has been called many things: Impossible, illegal, pointless, cool, etc.,” Rico wrote.

“I think there is more waiting to be uncovered by the LBC—including a collision,” he continued. “So with that in mind we really do not care much about what ‘someone on Reddit’ said.”

Motherboard is nominated for three Webby Awards for Best Science YouTube Channel , Best Drama , Best Tech/Science Podcast . Please vote for us!

Source: The Large Bitcoin Collider Is Generating Trillions of Keys and Breaking Into Wallets – VICE

Germany Is The European Leader Of Bitcoin & Ethereum Nodes

 

In what is emerging to be an interesting trend on the bitcoin network, Germany is fast growing as a hub for bitcoin nodes, as it is now responsible for 20% of all public nodes, inching closer to the United States, which accounts for 25% of bitcoin nodes.

Rounding off the top 5 for bitcoin nodes is France, Netherlands, and Canada. China may be experiencing a drop in mining after China’s strict approach to the cryptocurrency industry in recent times, and it is possible that miners may configured nodes to be publicly unreachable.

Similarly, it is also growing in terms of the number of Ethereum nodes, coming second again to United States, with 13% as opposed to the latter’s 28%. Data on the number of Ethereum nodes is conflicting, depending on the source. Here, China, France and Singapore complete the top 5.

Whatever the exact figure, it is clear that Germany is emerging as a hub for crypto activity. The nation’s authorities themselves are looking into the matter of crypto regulation.

Abhimanyu Krishnan
About Abhimanyu Krishnan

Abhimanyu is an engineer on paper but a writer by living. To him, the most celebratory aspect of blockchain technology is its democratic nature. While he’s hodling, he can be found reading a good book or making the local dogs howl with the sound of his guitar playing.

Source: Germany Is The European Leader Of Bitcoin & Ethereum Nodes

Goldman Sachs Drops Bitcoin Trading Plans For Now: Report – Reuters

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc is ditching plans to open a desk for trading cryptocurrencies in the foreseeable future as the regulatory framework for crypto remains unclear, Business Insider reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

In recent weeks, executives have come to the conclusion that many steps still need to be taken, most of them outside the bank’s control, before a regulated bank would be allowed to trade cryptocurrencies, the financial news website reported, citing one of the people.

ALSO READ: Bitcoin posts longest rally in a month as charts turn bullish

The Wall Street bank was planning to clear bitcoin futures for some clients as the new contracts were going live on exchanges when the cryptocurrency rocketed to a record high of $16,000 in December.

Regulators across the world have been intensifying their scrutiny of initial coin offerings (ICOs) and cryptocurrency exchanges.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission had warned last year that some of the coins issued in ICOs could be considered securities, meaning trading them would have to comply with federal securities laws.

ALSO READ: Bitcoin prices rise 5% as analysts cite short covering

The virtual currency can be used to move money around the world quickly and with relative anonymity, without the need for a central authority, such as a bank or government. A fund holding the currency could attract more investors and push its price higher.

Bitcoin was trading down nearly 4.8% at $7,007 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange on Wednesday.

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