Volume on the peer-to-peer (P2P) Bitcoin exchange LocalBitcoins has hit an all-time-high in Argentina as it has recently on the Paxful P2P exchange, as the country’s economy minister considers defaulting on $65 billion worth of sovereign debt.
While this does translate into an increase in volume on these platforms, the falling value of the Argentine peso must be factored into the equation.
The Latin American country, no stranger to currency crises, has been hit hard by the economic turmoil caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns and thus unable to make payments against some of its sovereign debt. Already in a grace period, these payments are due no later than May 22.
The main private holders of Argentine debt are so-called “vulture funds” like BlackRock, Fidelity and T. Rowe, made infamous in the financial press for swooping in to buy defaulted assets during previous of the country’s economic crises. (However, the largest creditor is the IMF.) These creditors have so far been staunch in their collective refusal to alter the terms of Argentina’s debt repayment.
If the vulture debt is allowed to go unpaid or a deal not reached to restructure the debt, Argentina will likely lose access to international credit lines and foreign investment it needs to keep keep the country afloat.
Repeated currency crises have led to a seemingly terminal decline in the value of the Argentine peso.
At the same time, we have also seen a consistent and huge rise in the amount of trading volume on P2P crypto exchanges in Argentina (and other Latin American countries). Volume on LocalBitcoins in Argentina, on the chart pictured above, seems to have tripled just during 2020.
It is easy to assume that uncertainty and fear in Argentina, especially surrounding the peso’s falling value, is driving crypto trading there. But it is important to also remember that these data are also priced in the local currency.
Therefore, it would be possible for the national volume to appear to be dramatically rising; but if that local currency is refactored into a more stable one like the dollar or euro, the rise in trading volume would look more modest.
If we look only at the peso’s value against the US dollar from the start of 2020, we see that it has steadily dropped for 11% at time of writing. Taking this into consideration, we can temper the charts of peso-denominated volume that we saw earlier. But even given this adjustment, volume in Argentina seems to be rising far faster on P2P exchanges than the rate at which the peso is losing value.
Looking at the volumes again in a Bitcoin denomination, we see a different picture. Here, we see that volume is nowhere near the all-time-highs — but then we must take into consideration how much Bitcoin’s price has changed since those highs were set in 2015-16.
Ultimately, the most important area to look at is within 2020, and we see something like a doubling of trade volume on BTC-denominated trade volume on LocalBitcoins, just during the year so far (inset below). Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated about $6,000 during the year, breaching $4,000 on the downside and touching $10,000 on the upside. But volume has gone up overall, even when Bitcoin has traded on the higher side of its 2020 range.
Ultimately, we do see a healthy rise in volume on P2P trading in Argentina, roughly 2x during 2020. Whether or not this increase is directly associated with the debt crisis is another matter.
Everyone should see it! Click here! http://youtube.com+watch=@3162039724/… Best cryptocurrency exchanger: https://700.by/101 Best cryptocurrency trading platform: https://700.by/102 Bitcoin (BTC) weekly trading volumes on peer-to-peer (P2P) trading platform LocalBitcoins in Venezuela and Argentina have hit new all-time highs in their respective national currencies. Cryptocurrency data website CoinDance shows that LocalBitcoins trading volume in local fiat currency in Argentina and Venezuela have hit new record highs. According to the website’s data, the week ending on Dec. 21 saw over 32.6 million Argentine pesos (equivalent to about $544,905) traded on the platform, or 34% more than the record registered two weeks before. LocalBitcoins weekly trading volume in Argentina in Argentine pesos | CoindanceIn Venezuela, on the other hand, over 248 billion bolivars (about $24.8 million) were traded on LocalBitcoins during the same week, nearly 15.6% more than the record volume registered during the previous week. LocalBitcoins weekly trading volume in Venezuela in bolivars | CoindanceAs Cointelegraph reported in early November, P2P trading volumes in Venezuela have started setting records after measures taken by the local central bank to curb Bitcoin inflows. Specifically, the regulator decided to ban Argentines from buying BTC with credit cards after also banning buying more than $200 per month. The capital control measures came after in mid-September the bank announced the intention to increase the peso’s monetary base by 2.5% per month over the following two months. Venezuelan citizens, on the other hand, apparently use Bitcoin to escape the extreme inflation of the bolivar. The increasing volume may also be spurred by late-September reports that the local central bank that it is exploring the possibilities of holding Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) in its coffers. All data is taken from the source: https://cointelegraph.com/ Article Link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/venezu…#trading#redditcryptocurrency#bitcoincurrentvalue#cryptocurrencynews#cryptocurrencyexchange#cryptonews#cryptoexchange Venezuela, Argentina Set New Weekly P2P Bitcoin Trading Volume Records: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LSff…
The much-anticipated bitcoin halving is upon us, an event that sees the BTC reward that miners receive for processing transactions on the bitcoin network divvy up for the third time in history. In theory, the value of the most prominent cryptocurrency should rise following the halving event since it means that new units would be harder to produce. That narrative has received support from the bull runs pre and post the first two halving events — 2012 and 2016.
Within a year after the first halving, bitcoin rose over 90X from the $10 region to a peak of about $1,180. For the second halving, bitcoin went as high as $2,800 from around $600 within a year before peaking at nearly $20,000 in Dec. 2017.
However, the crypto market has notably matured compared to 2012 and 2016. For one, bitcoin derivatives including futures and options are relatively more predominant these days, allowing for a more advanced price discovery among market participants. By implication, the narrative of a rally driven by the supply-squeeze might not play out so simply, at least not in the short term.
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“It is a very different world in 2020 than it was during the last two halvings, the derivatives market is much larger and more important,” said Garrick Hileman, head of research at Blockchain.com
“One way I would say the market has changed is that historically the trading market was more lopsided toward upward transactions because there were not as many ways to speculate on the price going down, for example, the ability to borrow and sell short,” he added. “That’s something that now exists through futures and options. So all these products have created a more level playing field for people who want to bet on the price going down”
An example of how a more robust price discovery system can overpower the demand and supply narrative is the alleged role that the introduction of CBOE and CME bitcoin futures played in the sell-off from bitcoin’s high of nearly $20,000 in 2017. Although it’s yet to be proven, some believe that the introduction of CBOE and CME futures afforded cash-flush institutional traders an opportunity to bet against BTC, influencing spot market behavior in the process.
Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar, CEO of IOV Labs, the company behind bitcoin smart contract platform RSK, argues that the possibility of this dynamic playing out makes this halving event different from the first two.
“While the reduction in bitcoin’s renewed supply due to the halving introduces the possibility of a sharp rise in BTC price,” he said “it is possible that smart institutional money will push prices down in the short-term, as it did when CME and CBOE introduced their futures in Dec. 2017.”
BTC currently has a bearish market sentiment despite halving
In the meantime, certain bitcoin market data shows that traders have a bearish sentiment around the halving event. Hileman pointed at the high demand for put options.
“When you dig into the options data, it looks like the market is placing a premium on contracts that are below the current prices,” he said. “The options market seems to be suggesting that there is more concern over prices moving downwards.”
The Bitcoin BTC put-call ratio data from crypto analytics firm Skew echoes to this sentiment. As indicated in the chart below, the ratio has been trending north. A rising put-call ratio suggests that there is a mounting demand for put contracts.
Emmanuel Goh, the CEO and co-founder of Skew, which recently raised $5 million and launched a trading product, explains that bitcoin options skew, another metric that tracks the price of put options relative to their call counterparts, is also worth monitoring.
With regard to the halving period, “if the options skew is positive for a sustained period of time, it indicates more concerns in the marketplace on the mining being potentially negative for mining companies and potentially having a negative impact on the price of bitcoin,” said Goh.
The BTC skew metric provided by Goh’s firm shows a positive trend.
And there may be some real-world proof that miners aren’t particularly optimistic in the short-term post-halving.
Meltem Demirors, the chief strategy officer at CoinShares, in a Zoom call, referenced her firm’s observations of miners’ activities.
“I think miners are looking to opportunistically offload some of their bitcoin inventory to add operating capital to their balance sheet,” Demirors said. “We’ve been talking to a number of miners on CoinShares’ capital broker-dealer side who are looking at raising capital to build out new facilities, to buy new machines and to extend their capacity.
“And we’ve seen a lot of miners engaging with our capital market trading desk looking for ways to manage and hedge their risk and lock in sort of an OPEX and develop a risk hedge portfolio strategy for the bitcoin they have on their balance sheet so that they can meet their operating cost and reduce some of the inevitable volatility that is going to come to miners around this event.”
SFOX, a Y Combinator-backed digital assets trading platform that provides a single point of market access to institutional participants, have seen similar trends. Some miners are despondent on holding crypto in order to cover their overhead costs, the startup’s head of growth Daniel Kim said.
For context as to why miners might be more cautious, consider that the bitcoin halving event would typically raise the breakeven price for miners.
John Todaro, the head of research at institutional trading tools provider Tradeblock, said mining breakeven price for bitcoin will rise nearly 100% post-2020 halving, citing internal research.
“We have current mining breakeven price between $5,000 and $6,000 per BTC, but immediately after the halving, assuming hashrate stays where it is today or even rises a little bit, you’re going to see the average mining breakeven jump to about $10,000 to $13,000 per BTC,” Todaro said. “You need to see the market price of bitcoin get above those levels or miners are going to be unprofitable, which could see a decline in hashrate, as miners exit the space.”
The changes coming to mining operations could spur some bearish narrative in the short-term based on the mining death spiral story. Therefore, this could potentially be the first time in the network that the market price of bitcoin would stay below mining breakeven points for a considerable amount of time, Todaro added.
BTC also remains correlated to stocks
There’s been wide media coverage on how the price of bitcoin is tied closely to equities. Demirors, Kim and Todaro all believe bitcoin is indeed tracking stocks right now and that it is probably a bigger driving force than the halving event in the short term.
Kim’s firm, SFOX, recently published a report, saying that BTC has sustained a “notably positive” correlation of 0.40 with the S&P 500 — despite the increased focus on the block reward halving event.
The long-term outlook for bitcoin post-halving remain positive
Given the somewhat docile market reaction to the halving event at present, it raises the question of if the event has been priced in. The answer depends on who you ask. That said, most of the experts interviewed believe that the market hasn’t fully priced the halving event, with expectations of higher BTC prices over the long term.
Based on a positive outlook for the three D’s of depletion (halving-driven supply cut), demand and dollars, CoinShares believe that the market price for BTC will be “materially higher” than present levels in 12 to 18 month, Demirors added, cautioning that the timing of a sustained bullish run will depend on soon the bitcoin decouples from the macro narrative.
On the qualitative aspect of things, RSK’s Zaldivar believes that the strength of the bitcoin network is underappreciated and expects that more people will realize this with time.
“Bitcoin is fundamentally strong with an unmatched security thanks to its computing power, financial incentives and network effect, and it is the most reliable and scarce digital asset in the world,” Zaldivar added. “With the economic uncertainty we are witnessing today, it would be no surprise to see the bitcoin ecosystem grow to attract institutional investors who perceive it as a store of value and a hedge.”
With regard to demand, U.S. based digital asset manager Grayscale Investments reported in the first quarter that it saw a record of over $500 million in new investments from its clients. Michael Sonnenshein, the firm’s managing director said during a call that his firm is finding that more people are looking to diversify their portfolio to tap into the potentials of blockchain.
“We are seeing that more investors are eager to either have some exposure for the first time or increase their exposure to bitcoin in a world that is characterized by quite a bit of economic uncertainty,” said Sonnenshein. “I think there is a large group of investors that are excited by the long-term potential of the applications being built around bitcoin weather it’s payments or leveraging the bitcoin blockchain for cost savings.”
I am a financial, cryptocurrency and blockchain writer. I have nearly a decade of experience covering the financial markets and about three years of experience demystifying the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain. My work has appeared on leading online financial publications including Investopedia, TheStreet, Motley Fool and Cointelegraph just to name a few. I previously worked with trade bodies to help industry executives save time by curating the stories they should care about in daily newsletters. Disclosure: I occasionally hold and trade Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The Bitcoin Halving 2020 is happening in 2 days! The Bitcoin halving event happens essentially once every 4 years, so this is a topic that needs to be discussed and analyzed. Whether you believe Bitcoin is worth owning, I definitely think that it should be at least a small part of your over portfolio as a speculative asset. In this video we are going to break down the following to give you a better understanding of the 2020 Bitcoin Halving along with some price predictions. 1. Bitcoin Blockchain 2. Bitcoin Mining 3. Bitcoin Supply 4. What is Halving? 5. Why does it occur? 6. Bitcoin Price Predictions post-halving The reason the Bitcoin halving is such a popular topic is because the number of Bitcoin that miners are rewarded with are essentially getting cut by 50%. So instead of earning 12.5BTC per block, they will be earning 6.25BTC. This is essentially designed to prevent inflation. This is a huge event and could lead to an enormous increase in the price of Bitcoin…AFTER a price decline. If you would like to buy and get $10 worth of Bitcoin for FREE, sign up for Coinbase HERE: http://bit.ly/CoinbaseWBF M1 FINANCE – INVEST FOR FREE! (Yes, Really) 😎 https://m1finance.8bxp97.net/D61Zq ————– My FREE M1 Finance Training Video! 🤑 http://bit.ly/FreeM1Training ————– SCHEDULE A COACHING CALL WITH ME! 🤝 https://bit.ly/MarkoCoaching ————– THE BEST CREDIT CARDS TO USE RIGHT NOW! 📚 https://bit.ly/creditcardsWBF ————– CIT BANK – SUPER HIGH YIELD SAVINGS ACCOUNT 😮 https://bit.ly/citbanksavings ————– GET MY FREE INVESTING GUIDE HERE: 😎 https://bit.ly/FreeInvestingGuideWBF ————– FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM 📷 https://www.instagram.com/whiteboardf… ————– Instrumental Produced By Chuki: http://www.youtube.com/user/CHUKImusic ABOUT ME 👇 My mission is to provide my viewers with actionable content that enables them to create financial wealth. My videos are a reflection of my real-world experience as a real estate investor, stock market investor, student of finance, and entrepreneur. This channel allows me to share my passion for personal finance, stock market investing, real estate investing, and entrepreneurship. I produce content that I would want to watch, and because of that, I give 100% effort in every video that I make. I also believe in complete transparency and open communication with my audience. Subscribe if you are interested in: #Investing#PersonalFinance#Entrepreneurship#StockMarket DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, I may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion.
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“There’s a lot of hesitation and uncertainty surrounding the event and it shows,” he stated.
“People are waiting for a price jump after the event before they fully commit,” said Garcon, emphasizing that this is what is needed for bitcoin to “reach its previous levels.”
Denis Vinokourov, head of research for London-based digital asset firm Bequant, also spoke to this reluctance.
He noted that while “bulls” recently “managed to push Bitcoin above $10k level,” there was a “distinct lack of follow through action, which suggests hesitation and market nervousness ahead of key risk event.”
The upcoming halving is creating uncertainty, something considered anathema to many investors.
John Iadeluca, founder & CEO of multi-strategy fund Banz Capital, weighed in on this situation.
“On one hand, the Bitcoin halving offers an immensely bullish point of view in that miners will shift to a more pseudonymous network backend maintenance position with exchanges and institutions assuming a role in facilitating economic participation,” he noted.
“An environment of the like is frightening, and combined with the fact that miners receive less after the halving on May 11th, there could arise the possibility of drastic decrease in mining activity,” said Iadeluca.
“Alongside the halving is an influx of new interested investors and users who will flock to retail exchanges to start with Bitcoin, and with Coinbase, arguably the most popular retail crypto exchange, suffering outage once again with days left to the halving, new as well as institutional investors would feel fear,” he concluded.
Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether and EOS.
I am a financial writer and consultant with strong knowledge of asset markets and investing concepts. I have worked for financial institutions including State Street, Moody’s Analytics and Citizens Commercial Banking. An author of more than 500 publications, my work has appeared in mediums such as New York Post, Washington Post, Fortune, CoinDesk and Investopedia. Previously, I created all the industrial finance training for a company with more than 300 people. I have spoken at industry events across the world and delivered speeches on financial literacy for Mensa and Boston Rotaract. I currently hold Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Ether and EOS
Will other CryptoCurrencies see the 10,000x gain like Bitcoin? PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! Francis Hunt, stock market trader and educator comments. Besides Ethereum and Bitcoin, in which other cryptocurrencies should we consider investing? What are the most promising ones? So when we talk about when to buy, but when to sell? Is there any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin right now in which I can put in around $1k now with the possibility of a great return, say, of $10,000 in 5 years time? I would put my money on the first 10 and just keep an eye on the top 25. ICO’s by their very nature are highly speculative and can be risky. You can now actually buy things with Bitcoin and that’s practical. Ethereum is now also coming into practical things. On the bigger sums you probably don’t want to put a lot of money on new unproven cryptocurrencies.
Now, Seychelles-based bitcoin futures exchange BitMEX has sparked panic among bitcoin traders and investors after accidentally exposing thousands of its users’ emails–with the exchange’s Twitter account then compromised shortly after.
BitMEX this week sent out thousands of its users’ email addresses along with a weekly newsletter after inadvertently CC’ing recipients instead of BCC’ing them.
“We are aware that some of our users have received a general user update email earlier today, which contained the email addresses of other users,” BitMEX said in a statement posted to its blog, adding an apology for the leak.
“Our team have acted immediately to contain the issue and we are taking steps to understand the extent of the impact. Rest assured that we are doing everything we can to identify the root cause of the fault and we will be in touch with any users affected by the issue.”
The exchange has blamed a bug for the leak claiming the error has been “identified and fixed.”
BitMEX, known for offering 100-times leverage trading, is currently being investigated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for allowing U.S. traders to use its platform without a licence.
“This kind of thing is a massive privacy breach with potentially serious consequences,” Jake Chervinsky, general counsel at Compound Finance, said via Twitter, adding: “[It’s] the last thing a derivatives exchange needs to deal with during a CFTC investigation.”
BitMEX has requested its users add BitMEX’s support email to their contact lists to decrease phishing emails along with adding 2-factor authentication.
Shortly after BitMEX warned users about the email leak, the exchange’s Twitter account @BitMEXdotcom posted two tweets that were promptly deleted.
The first read “Hacked” and the second advised followers to: “Take Your [bitcoin] and run. Last day for withdrawals.”
Meanwhile, Malta-based bitcoin exchange Binance, the world’s largest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange by volume, warned its users to change their Binance-registered email accounts following BitMEX’s blunder.
BitMEX, known for offering 100-times leverage trading, has been criticised previously for potentially exposing traders to too much risk, with economist and bitcoin skeptic Nouriel Roubini attacking the exchange and claiming it “may be openly involved in systematic illegality.”
I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported on how technology is changing business, political trends, and the latest culture and lifestyle. I have covered the rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrency since 2012 and have charted its emergence as a niche technology into the greatest threat to the established financial system the world has ever seen and the most important new technology since the internet itself. I have worked and written for CityAM, the Financial Times, and the New Statesman, amongst others. Follow me on Twitter @billybambrough or email me on billyATbillybambrough.com. Disclosure: I occasionally hold some small amount of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” Zuckerberg told Nikkei Asian Review, a Japanese business newspaper. “But right now I’m really focused on making sure that we do this well.”
Bitcoin traders and investors have closely-watched the development of Facebook’s libra, which has been adopted as something of a cryptocurrency regulatory bellwether and a tacit endorsement of bitcoin’s underlying blockchain technology.
“A lot of people have had questions and concerns, and we’re committed to making sure that we work through all of those before moving forward,” Zuckerberg added.
The bitcoin price lost further ground yesterday, dropping some 5% and dipping below the psychological $8,000 per bitcoin mark.
Bitcoin cash, an offshoot of bitcoin itself, led the cryptocurrency market lower, recording losses for the day of over 5% and taking its weekly decline to almost 30%.
The bitcoin sell-off comes after a muted launch of the New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt crypto platform, which was unveiled last year boasting software giant Microsoft and coffee chain Starbucks among its partners.
Bakkt’s platform allows traders and institutional investors to swap so-called “physically” settled bitcoin futures contracts, meaning traders and investors are not able to sell more bitcoin than they actually have, but the total number traded came to just 72 by the end of its first day, compared to over 5,000 traded on the first day of CME’s cash-settled futures, launched at the peak of bitcoin-mania in December 2017.
“Bitcoin staged a brief recovery yesterday but is again below [$8,000], currently trading at $7,990,” Marcus Swanepoel, chief executive of bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said in a note to traders.
“Similar losses have been recorded by all the main altcoins. The loss of value is certainly as a result of the overall global market negativity, but the change in the structure of the market with the launch of the bitcoin futures on Bakkt is thought, by a number of traders, to have been a contributing factor.”
Facebook’s libra, considered by some to be a competitor to bitcoin, is being pitched as a global currency, with the social media giant aiming to bring as many countries on board as possible.
However, the primary target is developing countries where banking and access to finance is low.
Facebook and Zuckerberg, who launched the platform in 2004, are both still reeling from a string of data-sharing and privacy scandals that have plagued the company in recent years and led to questions around the power of some of Silicon Valley’s biggest internet companies.
“Part of the approach and how we’ve changed is that now when we do things that are going to be very sensitive for society, we want to have a period where we can go out and talk about them and consult with people and get feedback and work through the issues before rolling them out,” Zuckerberg said.
“And that’s a very different approach than what we might have taken five years ago. But I think it’s the right way for us to do this at the scale that we operate in.”
I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported on how technology is changing business, political trends, and the latest culture and lifestyle. I have covered the rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrency since 2012 and have charted its emergence as a niche technology into the greatest threat to the established financial system the world has ever seen and the most important new technology since the internet itself. I have worked and written for CityAM, the Financial Times, and the New Statesman, amongst others. Follow me on Twitter @billybambrough or email me on billyATbillybambrough.com. Disclosure: I occasionally hold some small amount of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies