Three Reasons To Stay In a Volatile Market and Not Cash Out

August is traditionally a slow month in the markets, with low trading volumes and fewer headlines. A trade war between the world’s top two economies changes a lot.

After a rough week of stock-market volatility (^VIX) – the Dow had its worst one-day percentage drop of the year on Monday – the major U.S. indices are finally in the green. This is thanks in part to positive news out of China regarding its yuan and a better-than-expected trading report (China saw a 3.3% rise in exports compared with a year earlier).

Investors quickly turned to safe havens such as gold (GC=F) and bitcoin (BTC-USD).

While waiting for the next move in the U.S.-China trade dispute, investors might be tempted to cash out before tensions rise higher – and risk more damage to their portfolios. With so much concern over growth around the globe, here’s why one chief investment officer says it’s best not to cash out of stocks.

Reason #1: Tax concerns

“You shouldn’t be in the market at all then. Don’t ever go all in on cash,” Kim Forest, CIO of Bokeh Capital told Yahoo Finance. “If it’s a taxable account, you’re going to have to pay taxes on those stocks that have gains. That’s a big consideration.”

Reason #2: Predicting the future

“People are horrible at market timing. Nobody really knows the future,” Forest said. “You might think that having that cash is going to save you. But that cash is supposed to grow over time. If you’re in the market, you have to just get used to that asset value going up and down with the market.”

Reason #3: Keeping faith

Stocks go up over the long run: “You just have to believe that in time there’s going to be growth; and the growth is going to show up in those stocks and that is going to show in your portfolio,” Forest said.

A Fidelity report from earlier this year is a good example of why holding on is in most long-term investors’ interest: The investment giant examined the 1.64 million portfolios that were around at the end of March 2009, around the low point of the Great Recession, and that are still around today. In the decade between Q1 2009 and 2019, the average 401(k) balance, which had been $52,600, grew 466% to $297,700 – or an 18.93% increase per year.

By:

Source: Three reasons to stay in a volatile market and not cash out

How to plan for the worst and stay invested

Consider these 3 elements: emergencies, protection, and growth potential.

Consider thinking about the investment portion of your financial plan in terms of 3 categories: emergencies, protection, and growth potential.

Understanding how your emergency fund, insurance, and your investment strategies work together can help keep you on track toward your goals.

One of the key factors to success in long-term investing is the ability to stick with it through good markets and bad. A full emergency fund and adequate insurance coverage can give you peace of mind when the market gets rocky.

1. Emergency fund

It makes sense for everyone to have some money set aside for the unexpected. While 3 to 6 months’ worth of essential expenses is a good starting point, it’s important to decide how big your emergency fund should be so that you can sleep at night. Saving 3 to 6 months’ worth of essential expenses is a big goal to aim for so if that seems out of reach, $1,000 or enough to cover 1 month of essential expenses is a manageable milestone to aim for while working to save more.

2. Protection
Protection is a critical piece of a financial plan. It includes foundational pieces like life insurance, protecting your income in case of a disability, and basic estate planning. It also includes protecting part of your money from stock market risk. For instance, if you have goals that are less than 5 years away, your investment strategy should reflect that, with less exposure to stocks than you might have for goals that are 20 years away. You may not want any stock market investments for a goal that close.

As your life and financial situation scale up in complexity, often as you get older and hopefully become more financially comfortable, the layers of protection you may want could extend to long-term care insurance and tax-efficient inheritance strategies.

3. Growth
Once you’ve accounted for your emergency fund and protected certain aspects of your life, the growth portion of your plan is where you would put your diversified investment strategy. This component is generally the largest piece of your plan.

 

JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance. Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.

The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.

These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.

Despite the crypto slump, banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin is massively undervalued. Maintaining its estimate of bitcoin’s fair value at $38,000, the bank today reiterated the assessment it gave the asset in February when the cryptocurrency was trading around $43,400. This price is approximately 28% higher than its current level of $29,757.

In a note to clients issued Wednesday, the bank has also stated that it is replacing real estate with digital, or crypto, assets as its preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds, citing “potential lagged repricing” in private equity, private debt and real estate. Alternative assets typically refer to ​​investments that aren’t stocks, bonds or cash.

The appraisal is a nod of confidence to bitcoin, which is currently trading at less than half its all-time high of $68,721, and the broader category in general. In addition to rising interest rates and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the cryptocurrency market is grappling with the $50 billion collapse of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token LUNA. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently sits at $1.3 trillion, a dramatic decline from $3 trillion in November.

“The past month’s crypto market correction looks more like capitulation relative to last January/February and going forward we see upside for bitcoin and crypto markets more generally,” the bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in the report.

The strategists also believe that “the trajectory for VC funding would be crucial in helping the crypto market to avoid the long winter of 2018/2019”, which followed the initial coin offerings boom. Just today, Ethereum scaling startup Starkware raised $100 million at an $8 billion valuation and venture giant Andreessen Horowitz announced a $1.5 billion allotment for crypto investments as part of its larger $4.5 billion fund.

“Thus far there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post-Terra’s collapse. Of the $25 billion VC funding year-to-date, almost $4 billion came after Terra,” the strategists noted. “Our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted.”

I report on cryptocurrencies and other applications of blockchain technology. I also edit the weekly Forbes Crypto Confidential newsletter and contribute to our premium research service

Source: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

Price Prediction: How Profitable Will These Coins Be? — Dogecoin (DOGE), Parody Coin (PARO), and Ripple (XRP)

In Defence of Cryptocurrency – Christine Lagarde, Are You Serious?

Gaming Projects You Should Know in 2022: Decentraland (MANA), Enjin (ENJ), and Pac-Man Frog (PAC)

These Undervalued Coins Could Be Your Ticket to Being a Millionaire: Polkadot (DOT) and Quitriam Finance (QTM)

Chronoly (CRNO) Takes Number 1 Spot at Project To Invest In 2022 Over Fantom (FTM) and Anchor Protocol (ANC)

The Nightly Mint: Daily NFT Recap

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Throttled After LUNA Collapse

Bitcoin Consolidation Uninspiring, But Run To Near $33k On The Cards

Bitcoin Trading Volume Plummets Down From Recent Top

Bitcoin Sets Record Streak For Bloodliest Weekly Trend yet

JPMorgan: Bitcoin Is Undervalued; Says Fair Price Is 28% Higher

Market Sentiment Dangerously Negative As Crypto Fear Index Drops To Two-Year Low

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Transparency In Crypto Industry ‘Critical’: Ripple CEO

Speaking with “Mornings with Maria” from the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Garlinghouse discussed regulation for the industry, noting that he traveled to Davos for the conference to engage with other CEOs and finance ministers from around the world “to talk about how these technologies can actually solve real world problems, and reduce costs and improve efficiency.”Garlinghouse also addressed volatility in the crypto market on Tuesday.

“There’s no question that regulation around crypto is still trying to find solid footing and finding the right posture for the United States,” Garlinghouse said before arguing that “the United States has really been behind other G-20 of markets,” including the U.K., Switzerland and Singapore.

He said that those markets “have led in establishing a framework that works for investors as well as entrepreneurs who are taking advantage of the new technologies and building the next generations of Google and Facebook.”

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC. 59.48 -6.62 -10.02%
BITQ EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST BITWISE CRYPTO INNOVATORS E 7.45 -0.57 -7.11%

Along with the stock market, bitcoin has experienced a lot of volatility recently. Two weeks ago, bitcoin plunged to the $25,000 level, its lowest since December 2020, then bounced back over $30,000, according to CoinDesk. As of Tuesday morning, the crypto was trading around the $29,000 level, down from its all-time high of over $68,000 reached in November 2021.

The crypto is down more than 36% year-to-date.“There’s no question there’s been a lot of turbulence in the crypto market,” Garlinghouse said, noting that “if you zoom out, though, over the last two years, you have to remember that bitcoin was at about $8,000 two years ago. Today it’s around $30,000.”

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of financial technology company Ripple Labs, discussed regulation and volatility in the cryptocurrency markets from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “This is a new market,” he continued. “There’s certainly been a lot of excitement about what’s going on in the market [and] sometimes that excitement gets ahead of the reality.”

“We’ve been focused on how do we use technologies to solve real problems for customers and those are the kind of solutions that will scale regardless of the turbulence and volatility of the market,” he went on to argue.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have had some rough weeks in anticipation of and following the half-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It was the second of several anticipated increases this year as the central bank seeks to combat soaring inflation, which is at a high not seen in four decades.

The expectation now is that the Fed will take aggressive action to try and curb inflation, which remains near 40-year highs, according to the data for April released earlier this month, which has reduced investor appetite to hold assets perceived as higher risk.

Adding to more fears of volatility in the crypto market was the decoupling of the TerraUSD, a stablecoin whose value was tied to $1, the Wall Street Journal reported. The world’s largest stablecoin by market cap, tether, also briefly edged down from its $1 peg.  Garlinghouse pointed out on Tuesday that “stablecoins have been in the news because that was one of the catalysts that really drove the market a couple of weeks ago.”

Stablecoins are digital currencies with values that are pegged to traditional assets, like the dollar, another currency or gold. Its correspondence with the dollar is what, in theory, makes it stable. However, volatility in the crypto market last week challenged that presumption.

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of financial technology company Ripple Labs, discusses the turbulance in the crypto market from the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. “I think now more than ever the transparency that companies like Ripple have championed across the crypto industry is critical,” Garlinghouse told host Maria Bartiromo.

“That transparency for tether I think is to really make sure the people participating feel, buy and have access to whatever financial information they need to feel comfortable that it is in fact dollar-backed.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a House committee hearing earlier this month that the sharp drop in crypto markets highlighted the need for additional federal regulation to respond to the wave of speculative investment in the currency whose secrecy is a major part of its attraction. In addition, a top official at the SEC indicated that tighter rules around crypto stablecoins could be drawing closer, Reuters reported.

Source: Transparency in crypto industry ‘critical’: Ripple CEO | Fox Business

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Despite The Crypto Crash, Bitcoin Still Has a Bright Future

You might call it the cable that changed history. In the mid-19th century there were various attempts to lay cables across the Atlantic Ocean between Britain (Ireland) and the US.

It took several failures, numerous bankruptcies and over ten years before they got it right. But eventually they did and on July 27 1866 Queen Victoria broadcast a message to US President Johnson…

Money is a form of communication technology

Here’s what the first transatlantic cable said:

Osborne, July 27, 1866 

To the President of the United States, Washington 

The Queen congratulates the President on the successful completion of an undertaking which she hopes may serve as an additional bond of Union between the United States and England.

Johnson replied:

Executive Mansion Washington, July 30, 1866 

To Her Majesty the Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland 

The President of the United States acknowledges with profound gratification the receipt of Her Majesty’s despatch and cordially reciprocates the hope that the cable which now unites the Eastern and Western hemispheres may serve to strengthen and perpetuate peace and amity between the governments of England and the Republic of the United States.

To send a message by ship could take ten days or more; now it was a matter of minutes. So somebody came up with the slogan “two weeks to two minutes”.

Transmission speeds improved rapidly; Morse code became words and it was soon possible to send multiple messages at once. By the end of the 19th century, Britain, France, Germany and the US were all linked by cable.

Personal, commercial and political relations were altered for all time.  Back then gold was money, of course, as were paper notes representing gold. You couldn’t send gold down the cable, however, nor paper. But you could send a promise.

And, within a fortnight of Queen Victoria’s message, that’s what two parties who trusted each other did. An exchange rate between the dollar and the pound was agreed and then published in the New York Times on 10 August. That is why, to this day, GBP/USD exchange rate is known as “cable”.

My purpose with this story is to illustrate a point: what is money, but a form of communication?

Look at a £20 note (if you still use them) and you will see the words “I promise to pay the bearer”.  Of course, promises disappear; gold doesn’t. The two are quite different forms of money: one is belief, the other is real.

Nevertheless, since the dawn of civilisation, we have been using promissory money. In Ancient Mesopotamia, people used mud tokens, representing sheep or barley, baked inside clay balls to log debts owed. They found it more efficient to draw pictures of the tokens in the mud for the same purpose, which is how the first system of writing developed.

In Ancient China, people recorded their debts on bits of leather; after the invention of printing they started using paper. Today the promises are recorded and exchanged between trusted third parties on computers.

Millions, probably billions, of promises are sent across the internet every second, transferring as quick as words, probably quicker. Not only does (promissory) money evolve with communication technology, it is often the spur, the impetus for communication technology to evolve.

Now bitcoin, with its blockchain, obviates the need for trusted third parties altogether – that is one of many reasons it is so special. Here is a money communication network backed instead by mathematical proof and the most powerful and resilient computer network ever known to man: the trusted third party is the blockchain.

Why would you not want to own a share of such a breakthrough technology? That, effectively, is what owning some bitcoin is – owning shares in a new monetary technology. And it’s not like they are doing any roll backs.

Money has evolved like language

I want to explore this idea of money as communication further.  It’s often said (by me at least) when considering politicians: look at what they do, not at what they say. What we do says more about us than what we say – what we do with our money says even more.

And what we do with our money communicates value, not just between buyer and seller, but across the economy. What is the price of this thing? What is its value? The answer is constantly being sent and received, digested and acted upon; and so does the economy constantly, incrementally evolve and develop with each new signal: the how, why and when, of what needs producing and where.

Money, then, is like a language, constantly evolving and changing. Nobody is really in charge – it wasn’t really planned, it has just constantly evolved. The architects of fiat money did not plan what we have today, they just used it to get out of a tight fiscal spot – extenuating circumstances at the time.

Similarly, nobody planned the language we speak today. Language is hard to plan and regulate, try as many have over the years – and still do. The English we speak today is a long way from the English of Chaucer, Shakespeare or Dickens. There are probably fewer words; certainly fewer tenses. Grammar is simpler. Yet English is far more widely spoken. The network has grown.

Mandarin may have three or four times more native speakers, but English is more widely spoken. There may well come a time when everybody in the world speaks it. It is the dominant linguistic network.

Meanwhile, other languages fade away. Cornish has gone. Few now speak Welsh or Gaelic. The local dialects of France and Italy are disappearing. Similarly, there are no doubt a plethora of African, Asian and American languages that are on the way out, if they haven’t already gone.

The question to ask is this: how scalable is the language? English has the potential to become the default language of the world. Despite having more native speakers, that’s unlikely to be the case with Mandarin. It’s certainly not going to happen to Gaelic, Neapolitan or Swahili.

How many different monies have there been in history? Shells, whale teeth, metals, paper, cigarettes, mackerel packs, cognac, Zimbabwe dollars, reichsmarks, denarii, farthings, shillings. Most have died. Only gold goes on.

But, as with transatlantic cables, you can’t send gold over the internet. Only golden promises between trusted parties.

Bitcoin is money for the internet

The US dollar is the global reserve currency. You can send that over the internet. But it’s hard for people who aren’t American to get US dollar bank accounts. Foreign exchange fees are expensive. Money transfers can take several days sometimes.

It’s a national currency that is used internationally. A country – and several do – could use it as their national currency, but they would be importing US monetary policy too, and so subjecting themselves to US political whims. Which is why most countries with their own political agenda issue their own currencies.

Thus, though “international”, as a national currency, the US dollar is limited by its national borders and its politics. The same goes for any national currency.

But language is not limited by national borders – or at least English isn’t. If only there was an apolitical, borderless currency for the borderless economy that is the internet, then that really would be scalable in a way that no national currency is. A network that has evolved organically, and is constantly growing.

You don’t need a bank account to start using bitcoin. You only need a phone with an internet connection. We are not far off that point when everyone who wants one has one. My argument is this: if money is language, then bitcoin is English. It has a potential to scale that no other currency has.

Just as an aside on how quickly money evolves – it’s worth remembering that as recently as the 19th century, the pound had greater global recognition than the dollar. In emulation of Jules Verne’s Phileas Fogg, who went Around The World in 80 Days, in 1889-1890 American journalist Nellie Bly went on a trip around the world in 72 days.

She took pounds, but she also brought some dollars, “as a test to see if American money was known outside of America”. She went east from New York, and did not see American money until Colombo, Sri Lanka, where $20 gold pieces were used as jewellery. They accepted her dollars – but only at a 60% discount.

It’s a bit of an ask – though possible – to get people to accept bitcoin in the physical world. But that is not what it is for. It is money for the internet.

Dominic Frisby author headshot

Source: Despite the crypto crash, bitcoin still has a bright future | MoneyWeek

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Bybit Boosts Crypto Trading Capabilities with MetaTrader4

Cryptocurrency believers can look forward to even better trading as Bybit, one of the world’s fastest-growing crypto exchanges, completes its highly anticipated MetaTrader 4 (MT4) integration. With this upgrade, Bybit is bringing its users the advanced technical analysis, flexible trading system, and algorithmic trading tools that mark MT4 out as the current gold standard for forex (FX) and contract for differences (CFD) trading.

Developed by MetaQuotes, MT4’s functionalities on Bybit are available to all users. The platform enables 24/7 trades of USDT perpetual contracts — all with Bybit’s low spreads and deep liquidity. Bybit users can also activate Expert Advisors for an automated trading experience that allows them to integrate their trading scripts from other providers offering MT4. Equipped with MT4’s widely popular and trusted functionalities, Bybit’s innovative, streamlined platform makes trading even more intuitive than ever before.

Faster, Simpler, Smarter

With the MT4 integration, Bybit users have top trading and analytical technologies at their fingertips and can implement trading strategies with ease. Users on Bybit MT4 will be trading off Bybit’s order book and liquidity prices, facilitating direct peer-to-peer buy/sell transactions with minimal slippage granted by the platform’s deep liquidity.

For an enhanced trading experience, MT4 also comes with informative technical indicators and algorithmic trading tools. Key features include the ability to automatically copy deals of other traders, as well as various support functions for users at all stages of their trading journey.

In addition, MT4 has a range of customizable layouts, complete with an intuitive interface and interactive charts that make planning and managing trades a breeze. Whether for longtime crypto believers or the newly crypto curious, Bybit’s MT4 integration delivers advanced trading features along with a hassle-free user experience.

A World-Class Platform

Since it was founded in 2018, Bybit has rapidly made a name for itself as a provider of innovative online spot and derivatives trading services, mining and staking products, an NFT marketplace as well as API support to both retail and institutional clients around the globe. Bybit has emerged as a next-level exchange for digital assets thanks to a smart and robust system that underlines speed, security, transparency, and market depth.

Liquidity is arguably the be-all and end-all of asset exchanges, and this is a leading quality of Bybit’s derivatives trading platform. With abundant liquidity and the tightest spread, Bybit guarantees that traders have the best quote and execution on the market even during periods of extreme volatility.

What’s more, with a 99.99% up rate, Bybit has proven to be the most reliable, stable, and usable crypto exchange of the bull run. The platform had no overload or downtime throughout the year — a unique attribute among major exchanges.

With a whole host of retail-focused products and customer-centric services (including multilingual support), Bybit’s platform is designed to help lower the entry threshold to digital assets trading, inviting people around the world to enjoy easy and immediate delivery of crypto transactions. With MT4, Bybit is furthering its mission to become a fully integrated trading powerhouse with a stellar, user-friendly interface.

“As one of the most advanced and convenient trading solutions, MT4 is an excellent tool for our users to elevate their trading experience,” said Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit. “We are excited to bring our products and services to the next level with this integration with MT4, and we look forward to our users benefiting from its functionalities and navigating the rise of digital assets with us.”

Source: Bybit Crypto Trading Capabilities MetaTrader4

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