Source: Financial Freedom in Retirement Is All About Cash Flow | Kiplinger
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Inflation bond: the ultimate protection against the rising cost of living. If you know what you’re doing, you get a real yield of 1.9% on these U.S. Treasury securities. If you don’t, you’ll get a lousy deal, a bond paying 0%.Why on earth would people buy a 0% bond when the 1.9% alternative is right at hand? Because they follow the advice of naïve personal finance commentators.
The naïfs are in love with I bonds. These are savings bonds that track the cost of living. There are negatives: They have a purchase limit of $10,000 a year, they have restrictions on early redemption and they can’t be put in a brokerage account.Worst of all, I bonds have a 0% real yield. Your interest consists of a nothingburger return plus an inflation adjustment. In purchasing power, you break even.
Smart money is going into the other kind of inflation-adjusted Treasury bond, called a TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Security). TIPS have no purchase limit, no restriction on your ability to get out early, and no trouble going into your brokerage account.Best of all, TIPS have a positive real return. The ones due in five years pay 1.92% annually. In purchasing power, you gain 9.6% over the five years.
I can forgive the experts who were gushing about I bonds back in January. At the time, the five-year TIPS had a real yield of -1.6%. At 0% for the real yield, the I bond was clearly the better buy, apart from the inconveniences attached to getting and holding the thing.
Since then there has been a bond crash. Yields on marketable bonds have shot upward. The yield on I bonds hasn’t budged. There is no excuse for recommending an I-bond purchase today.
I bonds can be held for 30 years, after which they stop accruing interest. You can’t cash them in during the first year. In years two through four, a redemption comes with a penalty equal to three months of inflation adjustments. After the five-year mark you can cash in whenever you want, collecting your full 0% return (that is, full recompense for inflation).
Where to get those TIPS? You have two options. One is to own a bond. The other is to own a bond fund. There are pros and cons to each. or the bond, arrange with your bank or broker to submit, close to the deadline, a non-competitive tender at the next auction of five-year TIPS. The tentative Treasury schedule, to be finalized on Oct. 13, is for the auction to take place on Oct. 20.
At Fidelity Investments there is no fee for an auction order placed online; the maximum buy is $5 million. Other financial institutions have similar deals. TIPS yields could go up or down over the next two weeks. If they go up, hurray. If they go down a lot, you could choose not to participate.
If you hold that bond until it matures, you are certain to collect the return set at the auction. If you cash in early by selling in the secondary market, you could be looking at either a windfall capital gain or a windfall loss, depending on whether interest rates go down or go up. That’s a fair bet, but selling would mean getting nicked by a bond trader, who will pay slightly less than the bond is worth. I’d recommend a direct bond purchase only if there’s a pretty good chance you can stand pat for five years.
The alternative is to own shares of a TIPS bond fund. Two I like are the Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF (ticker: SCHP, expense ratio 0.04%) and the Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP, 0.04%). The Schwab fund has bonds averaging 7.4 years until maturity; the Vanguard portfolio’s average maturity is 2.6 years. A 50-50 blend of the two funds would give you the same interest-rate excitement as a single bond due in five years.
The advantage to the funds is that they are very liquid. The haircut from trading is typically a penny a share round-trip (that being the bid/ask spread), a tiny percentage of a $50 stock.
The disadvantage to the funds is that you can’t nail down what real return you’re going to get between now and October 2027. The funds keep rolling over proceeds from maturing bonds into new bonds. The portfolios never mature.
What that means: You could wind up doing better or worse with the funds than you would have with a single bond due in five years. It depends on what path interest rates take. Again, it’s a fair bet, but you may not like this kind of uncertainty.
I’ll now address two supposed benefits to I bonds: that you can’t lose money and that you can defer tax on the interest. Can’t lose? Only in the sense that an ostrich with its head in the sand can’t lose. Savings bonds are not marked to market. You can’t see your loss.
Buy a $10,000 I bond today, and you become instantly poorer. If you plan on staying put for five years, your investment should now be valued at $9,100. That’s all your future claim on the U.S. Treasury is worth, given where TIPS yields are. If you have the sense to get out at the earliest possible date (12 months from now), then the damage is less, but it’s still damage.
The other supposed advantage to I bonds is the deferral of income tax on the inflation adjustment. This is not the bonanza you may think it is. Our current tax law is set to expire at the end of 2025. After that, tax rates are going up.
I aim to help you save on taxes and money management costs. I graduated from Harvard in 1973, have been a journalist for 45 years, and was editor of Forbes magazine
Source: How To Improve The Yield On Your I Bond
Critics by Fidelity
Both I bonds and TIPS adjust the interest they pay based on changes in inflation and are backed by the US Treasury, which means there is little risk of defaulting on those interest payments. But those similarities also come along with significant differences. The most important difference is that while you can buy up to $10 million worth of TIPS through Fidelity at auction, and an unlimited amount on the secondary market, I bond purchases are limited to $10,000 per person per year and are only available on the Treasury’s website, not through your brokerage account.
I bonds also require that you not touch the money you invest in them for a year and if you do so during the following 4 years you must forfeit the most recent 3 months of interest payments. These limits on both quantity and liquidity represent obstacles for both savers who want liquidity and for investors who want yield. While I bonds’ high interest rates may look appealing, a closer look at TIPS may reveal them to be more useful inflation fighting tools.
I bonds, TIPS, and taxes
Semi-annual interest payments on TIPS are subject to federal income tax, just like payments on conventional Treasury securities—or I bonds.
Any increase in the value of the TIPS principal is subject to federal tax in the year that it occurs—even though you won’t receive any income from the increase. On the other hand, when the TIPS matures or is sold, you will only pay federal tax on the final year’s increase in principal while receiving the full increase in principal since the date of initial purchase. Like all Treasury securities, TIPS and I bonds are exempt from state and local income taxes. Investors should consult their tax advisors regarding their specific situation prior to making any investment decisions with tax consequences.
Finding ideas
While I bonds are only available at TreasuryDirect.gov, investors interested in diversifying their portfolios with TIPS can choose from individual bonds, mutual funds, or exchange-traded funds. The approach you choose should reflect your ability and interest in researching your investments, your willingness to track them on an ongoing basis, the amount of money you have to invest, and your tolerance for various types of risk. There are pros and cons for both individual bonds and bond funds. In some cases, it may make the most sense to own both. Learn more about the differences between individual bonds and funds here: Bonds vs. bond funds
TIPS are also used by professional investment managers to help protect portfolios from specific risks, says Lars Schuster, institutional portfolio manager with Strategic Advisers, LLC. “While higher inflation can be problematic for some bonds, TIPS exposure might help protect the value of the fixed income portion of a well-diversified portfolio,” he says.
You can buy TIPS directly from auctions held by the US government and at Fidelity.com. TIPS are available in 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities, at auctions spread throughout the year. You can also buy and sell individual TIPS with various maturities and prices from other investors in the secondary market. Fidelity.com does not charge fees or mark-ups on these transactions. You can learn more at Comparison of TIPS and Series I Savings Bonds
Fidelity also offers research tools including the Mutual Fund and ETF evaluators on Fidelity.com. Below are the results of some illustrative screens using the search terms “taxable bonds” and “fighting inflation” (these are not recommendations of Fidelity).
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Asset managers continue to convert some of their mutual funds into exchange-traded funds. So what does that mean for investors? A 2019 change to the rules governing investment funds made it easier for managers to convert mutual funds to ETFs by removing the need for separate approval of each potential conversion by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
A handful of asset managers, including Dimensional Fund Advisors and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s J.P. Morgan Asset Management, have recently converted actively managed mutual funds into actively managed ETFs. They say the change is in response to the preference of many investors for ETFs, which generally offer lower fees than mutual funds and provide a tax advantage.
Investors in the funds being converted might appreciate those benefits. But they need a brokerage account to keep the new ETF, and may have some tax consequences if they own fractional shares of the mutual fund.
The initial group of conversions has mostly been in actively managed stock or bond funds. For example, J.P. Morgan completed conversions of four funds in June, an actively managed fixed-income fund now called JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond ETF (JCPI); an active equities fund, now JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Equity ETF (JMEE); a real-estate income fund, now JPMorgan Realty Income ETF (JPRE); and a global equities fund, now JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity ETF (JIRE).
Dimensional Fund Advisors converted a $30 billion suite of actively managed systematic funds last year. Systematic funds’ investment decisions are largely guided by models based on extensive market data, rather than left purely to the fund managers’ discretion.
Analysts say actively managed funds are likely to be where most conversions happen. That’s because active funds have higher fees than passive ones and tend to generate more taxable gains through trading, which makes them more vulnerable to investors’ preference for lower fees and taxes.
There is a recognition among asset managers that there is a better way to offer certain strategies, and that’s coming alongside investor demand for ETFs,” says Daniel Sotiroff, a Morningstar analyst. Even mutual funds that already have some of the qualities of an ETF can benefit from conversion, he says. “If you look at what Dimensional converted, those funds were already tax managed as mutual funds,” meaning they were designed to minimize investors’ tax burden. “The ETF structure makes that process easier to do and comes with lower fees.”
He notes that ETFs typically don’t charge the so-called 12b-1 fees that mutual funds do. These fees, which are named after the SEC rule that allows them to be charged, cover the marketing and distribution of a mutual fund or ETF. ETFs also tend to have fewer trading transactions than mutual funds, which means they have lower transaction costs, because trades aren’t triggered by asset inflows and outflows in ETFs as they are in mutual funds.
ETFs offer a tax advantage because, since they can make fewer trades, they distribute fewer, if any, capital gains to investors. Some mutual funds are designed to distribute fewer gains, but investors are still likely to see taxable distributions over the course of their investment in a mutual fund.
The higher fees of actively managed funds and the taxes on capital gains from distributions have led to outflows in favor of actively managed ETFs with similar strategies for a number of years. The SEC rule change for conversions gives investors the option to stick with the same strategy and managers at a lower cost.
For fund managers, a conversion allows them to keep the performance record of the mutual fund as well as any investor assets in the fund that stay through the conversion. That can give the new ETF a leg up over a newly launched ETF, as many investors and financial advisers want to see a substantial record and enough assets to support the long-term viability of a fund before investing.
For investors in a mutual fund that is up for conversion, there are a few things to keep in mind. Those who invested in a mutual fund through a transfer agent instead of a broker, which is common, will need a brokerage account to be able to hold and trade the ETF. If they don’t have a brokerage account, there are many low-cost brokers, with some offering low or no minimums to open an account, but it may be a bit of a learning curve for those who haven’t used a brokerage account before.
ETFs also don’t offer fractional shares. Any fractional shares of the mutual fund held at the point of conversion will be redeemed and could result in a taxable gain.
A conversion may also require approval from shareholders, and if enough shareholders don’t want to convert, fund managers may opt to offer a separate ETF that runs the same strategy. Individual investors can then decide to move into the ETF on their own, but that could result in tax consequences when they sell out of the mutual fund if they end up with capital gains.
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Source: When a mutual-fund converts to an ETF: How it works | Mint
Critics by By Matthew Romano
Mutual fund” is the common term for an investment vehicle that pools money from multiple investors and invests in various assets such as stocks and bonds. Most traditional mutual funds, commonly referred to as “open ended” funds, issue shares directly to shareholders and redeem them at the demand of the shareholder at the fund’s net asset value (NAV). Mutual funds register with the SEC under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the Act).
While an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is similar to a traditional mutual fund in that it pools money into a fund to invest in various assets and can register with the SEC under the Act, it differs in that its shares are traded on a secondary market as opposed to directly between the shareholders and the fund. One or more intermediaries, referred to as authorized participants, seed the fund with cash and/or stocks in exchange for the fund shares and then list those shares on a secondary market to be bought and sold by the prospective fund shareholders.
A traditional mutual fund can be converted to an ETF. The present discussion focuses on the tax implications of doing so. A conversion may be appealing because of the greater tax efficiency of ETFs (discussed below), lower expense ratios, and the fact that a conversion utilizes the scale and performance of an existing fund. Mutual funds’ appetite for converting was further enhanced by the SEC’s approving Rule 6c-11 in 2019, which reduced the time and cost of launching an ETF.
Tax efficiency of ETFs
Both traditional mutual funds and ETFs that are domestic corporations — if they are registered with the SEC under the Act and meet certain diversification, income, and distribution requirements — are taxed as regulated investment companies (RICs) under Subchapter M of the Internal Revenue Code. Under these rules, they are not subject to entity-level tax if they distribute their net income and capital gains via dividends to their shareholders. Shareholders with nonqualified taxable accounts ultimately bear the tax burden.
ETFs are often more tax-efficient than traditional mutual funds, however. In the case of a mutual fund, besides the trading that occurs in the normal course of business, other transactions at the fund level can result in an increased tax burden for the shareholders. For instance, a portfolio rebalance and/or change in investment strategy can result in the fund’s recognizing substantial gains. Large redemptions can also cause a mutual fund to recognize gains because it may need to sell securities to raise the cash to meet the redemption request.
The ETF structure can mitigate or even eliminate this tax burden. With respect to redemptions, Sec. 852(b)(6) provides that a RIC that redeems shareholders with “property” instead of cash will not recognize any gain from the disposition of that property. While this provision applies to both traditional mutual funds and ETFs, mutual fund shareholders will almost always prefer a cash redemption, while authorized participants are usually indifferent.
With respect to a rebalancing of the portfolio, ETFs can utilize either a redemption basket (of securities) or a creation basket (of securities) between the ETF and the authorized participants. This allows the ETF to avoid recognizing and distributing taxable gains to the shareholders.
The conversion transaction itself
While the conversion of a traditional mutual fund to an ETF has numerous legal and operational hurdles, the details of which are outside the scope of this discussion, the tax structuring is fairly simple. Typically, the fund sponsor will create a shell ETF for purposes of the conversion. This ETF will likely have the same investment objectives, board of directors, and management as the original mutual fund. After the shell ETF is created, the original mutual fund merges into the shell ETF.
If structured properly, the merger will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under Sec. 368(a)(1)(F) (F reorganization). The requirements of an F reorganization, detailed in Regs. Sec. 1.368-2(m), are listed below:
Given the nature of the conversion of a traditional mutual fund to an ETF, it is likely that the transaction will meet the above requirements. Assuming it does, an F reorganization is considered a “mere change of form” for tax purposes. As such, the fund tax year end, employer identification number, and all tax attributes from the original mutual fund remain.
There are some other ancillary tax implications of the conversion. The mutual fund may want to sell some assets prior to the conversion; this could result in some taxable distributions to shareholders. Also, unlike traditional mutual funds, ETFs generally do not issue fractional shares, so these will be redeemed with cash prior to the conversion and could result in a nominal amount of tax.
Other items to consider
While this item focuses primarily on the tax impact, some nontax aspects of converting a traditional mutual fund to an ETF should also be considered:
Potentially significant benefits
While substantial operational and legal obstacles need to be considered and addressed, the conversion of a traditional mutual fund to an ETF can have significant tax benefits, depending on the nature of the fund’s activities and the makeup of the fund shareholder base.
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A popular smartphone app used to conduct foreign exchange transactions known as MetaTrader (or MT4 or MT5, depending on the version), was quietly removed from Apple’s App Store last Friday. As of this writing, the app remains available on the Google Play store.
The app, which is made by a Cypriot-based company called MetaQuotes, has been used to perpetrate a new type of cryptocurrency scam, known as pig butchering, where a scammer builds a longer term relationship with their victim before convincing them to invest money over time. A key element of the scam is the use of manipulated cryptocurrency apps and websites, which purport to show the victim that they’re making money off their investment, when in fact the scammer has taken everything.
Apple’s ban of MetaTrader comes two weeks after Forbes profiled one California-based scam victim, who lost over $1 million last year. This victim, known as Cy, made all of his purported trades on the MetaTrader app, which showed him fictitious returns. At the time, Apple spokesperson Adam Dema said the company was investigating MetaTrade and was looking into additional action to protect App Store users if necessary.
MetaQuotes did not respond to Forbes’ request for comment. Daniel Delnero, an Atlanta-based attorney with Squire Patton Boggs, who informed Forbes late Sunday evening that his firm is now representing MetaQuotes, did not respond to Forbes’ request for comment by press time. The company had not previously responded at all to multiple emails sent to company email addresses. No phone numbers are listed on its Contacts page for any of the company’s multiple offices around the world.Neither Apple nor Google responded to requests for comment.
Existing installs of MetaTrader on iOS devices continue to function. However, there are some reports on Twitter of users claiming to sell iPhones with the app pre-installed for $15,000 in one case, or a “starting price” of 5,000 British pounds, or “$10k OBO,” an abbreviation for “or best offer.”As Forbes previously reported, MetaTrader, which offers licenses for its software, does enable legitimate trade by actual brokerages. It is an agnostic trading platform, one that is used by mainstream foreign exchange traders like Oanda.
But according to the Global Anti-Scam Organization (GASO), a scam victims’ advocacy group, MetaTrader also allows licensees to use a particular plug-in, known as Virtual Dealer, which can be used by scammers to “manipulate those market prices, and simulate account balances, profits or losses. Everything looks and feels real, but it’s all a fabrication,” according to a report from GASO.
MetaTrader has provided no explanation as to how unscrupulous actors can use the software to illustrate fake trades, nor what actions, if any, it has taken to mitigate this behavior. In July, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Sherrod Brown, wrote letters to Apple CEO Tim Cook and Google CEO Sundar Pichai about how the companies are evaluating and ultimately allowing the proliferation of fake crypto apps in their app stores.
News of the app’s removal was first reported by FX News Group and Finance Magnates on Saturday. In a WhatsApp text message sent late Sunday evening, Cy, the victim who has still been unable to recoup any of his losses, said he was pleased that Apple had removed the trading app. He had previously told Forbes that a large part of why he was convinced to download it was that it had positive reviews and could be found on Apple’s App Store.
“It’s about time,” he wrote. “How many other victims occured before our voices were heard! [It’s] the right thing to do. But [it] doesn’t make me feel any good as the damage has been done.” Jan Santiago, GASO’s deputy director, said the organization was “glad” for the app’s removal.
“If MetaTrader won’t do anything on the grave issues raised by users who trusted them, then the responsibility falls on platforms like Apple and Google Play store that list MetaTrader,” he wrote in an email.
UPDATE Sept. 28: This story has been updated to clarify how MetaTrader was used in relation to these scams.
I cover Silicon Valley — in particular surveillance technology and artificial intelligence — from beautiful Oakland,
Source: Apple Removes A Trading App Linked To Crypto Scams From The App Store
Critics by Derick David
Perhaps one of the most notable mentions of crypto from Apple was in September 2019. when Apple Pay’s VP Jennifer Bailey said the company was “watching cryptocurrency” and strongly believes it has “interesting long-term potential.”In February 2020, Apple hired Jeff Bronikowski, Warner Music’s former head of technology innovation, who was working on a number of the blockchain efforts to create digital assets using a public blockchain called Flow .
Then on November of 2021, when asked by Andrew Ross Sorkin of New York Times if Apple would consider accepting cryptocurrency through Apple Pay, Tim Cook replied that crypto is “something that we’re looking at.” The statement is broad, but regardless, positive. In February of 2022, Apple unveiled its new Apple Pay feature that will enable millions of merchants across the U.S., to use their iPhones to seamlessly, instantly, and securely accept payments simply by tapping their iPhones. It’s called Tap To Pay and it can also be potentially used to transact crypto.
In late March of 2022, MetaMask, one of the most used crypto wallets, which has surpassed 30 million monthly active users as of January, has announced its support for Apple Pay so people can buy crypto directly from their wallets. Around the same time MetaMask announced their Apple Pay integration, this job posting below for a Senior Legal Counsel position with expertise and experience on blockchain, digital assets, and payment platforms is seen on Apple’s website. Notice the timing of the job posting and the highlighted key qualification.
This is a great sign that Apple is looking closely into integrating crypto features and functionalities like Ethereum wallets or crypto payments into Apple Pay & Wallet. It’s also worth mentioning that Apple acquired UK-based fintech startup, Credit Kudos bringing a range of payment functions in-house. Among many other things, cryptocurrency can entirely change how people buy products, save or invest money, and pay their bills. Combining these with Apple’s platform, they have the potential to help billions of users have a frictionless banking and payment experience.
Is the Cupertino giant next in line to support crypto? Rumors and hints point in that direction, but there’s a bigger picture. Apple is in a unique and powerful position to best support crypto today. Here’s why. Apple is a $2.7 trillion cap behemoth with more than 1 billion active iPhone users as of February of 2022. This means billions of people follow their software and hardware ecosystem and hundreds of thousands of people wait in excitement for their Keynote events and product releases. Though still in the early innings, there are strong signs that crypto and blockchain use cases are gaining prominence through mobile phones.
Specifically, Apple’s iPhone could be the key not only to onboard people into crypto, but to also help them understand the possibilities of transacting on a decentralized, permissionless, and transparent network. People will find it intriguing and enticing. The cool detail? People might not even need to know how crypto technology works behind the scenes. The Cupertino company has a reputation for abstracting complex technologies into simple and easy to use products.
This is one of the reasons why Apple has garnered a cult-like following over the decades in addition to their Oscar-worthy marketing and advertising efforts. This is the power of Apple. If there’s one ecosystem that will accelerate crypto’s adoption, it will be Apple’s. How? Through seamless integrations through their products, worldwide reach, and cult-like following.
Almost in every Keynote presentation, Apple CEO Tim Cook never fails to mention one important statement, “Apple believe that privacy is a fundamental human right” and they believe that users should have control of all of their data. What does this mean for crypto? Well, crypto is all about privacy, security, and transparency. In the crypto world, people have control all over their assets and there are no middlemen in between. Apple can promise trust in transactions, account protection, and ease of use by reducing cost and time for consumers when they need access to the financial banking system.
This means more market penetration while maintaining privacy, security, and transparency. In addition, Clifford Rossi, an executive-in-residence and professor in the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland’s Finance Department said that having a digital or crypto wallet and its own stable coin or a crypto pegged to the price of a fiat currency, could give Apple a competitive advantage over other retailers and will increase the competitive landscape of the personal banking and payment processing industry.
Another way Apple can help with crypto is the storing of private keys and seed phrases in iCloud tied with their multi-factor authentication. This will enhance the security of your sensitive crypto wallet information. Apple always does the right thing when it comes to the privacy and security of its users. The same goes for the crypto route. One popular use case of cryptocurrency is helping the ‘unbanked’ or people that are not served by financial institutions, gain to access to banking solutions which is common among developing nations.
According to several statistics, nearly 2 billion people globally still have no access to financial services. That’s like one-fourth of the world population. One day, people don’t have to go through a lengthy process just to apply for a bank account which requires a lot of documents to submit, which then can take weeks to get a result. Just imagine how hassle it will be if you’re in desperate need of money for emergency expenses. Cryptocurrency is giving people a chance to better their lives, increase their earnings, and stash savings for the future.
Apple dominates the world of tap and go payments and with more than $200 billion cash in hand, they could shake up the fintech world with an Apple Card expansion, checking accounts, international payments, and crypto wallets. Cryptocurrency is giving people in less fortunate situations instant access to money with a click of a button. There’s no need to wait for days, no expensive fees, and no need to go through a lengthy bank application process. The majority of the financially excluded individuals still live in developing nations, so for financial inclusion, cryptocurrency adoption is essential.
One quality that makes Apple great as a company is that they approach problems through design thinking. This is the same for today and for the 1980s when Steve Jobs was revolutionizing personal computing. Through the decades, Apple has built a unique reputation as an extremely design-driven company. For instance, they don’t refer to their users as “users”, but instead as “humans”. As highlighted in their human interface guidelines, which is a guideline adopted by people that work at Apple.
To that point, the current state of Web3 products has room for more design iterations due to a lackluster user experience design. This is due to the developers creating for other developers mindset and that the entire ecosystem is still in early-stage, which means there are a lot of changes. It’s also worth highlighting that Apple always turns something that seems boring and dull into something fashionable and sexy. They did that with the personal computer, iPod, iPhone, iPad, and now maybe crypto.
If and when Apple does crypto, they have the potential to set an industry standard for Web3 design by applying their own touch of Apple design. For this reason, they’re in an even stronger position to bring millions of people into crypto and even educate people about the entire Web3 ecosystem. Should we expect any crypto-related announcement from them anytime soon? As Tim Cook said, Apple thrives in its culture of secrecy, so less likely. However, we know one thing for sure, Apple never backs down on innovations that have the range to change people’s lives for the better..
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Existing home sales fell for the seventh straight month in August as rising interest rates continued to sideline potential home buyers, and prices are finally starting to fall from record highs as experts project that the next few months could help ease the housing sector’s long-standing affordability crisis.
Existing home sales ticked down 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August, down from 6 million one year ago after declines across the U.S., according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.
In a statement, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called the housing sector “most sensitive to” the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and said the softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates, which peaked at 6% last week and have driven up the cost of monthly payments on new mortgages by more than 55%, an average of hundreds of dollars each month.
Amid the falling demand, the median existing home price has tumbled from a record high of $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August, down for a second straight month to the lowest level since March after breaking a five-month streak of gains.
The 7.7% yearly uptick in August home prices was the slowest year-over-year increase since June 2020, and NAR projects the median existing home price could fall more than 5% to $380,000 by the end of this year.
Others are eyeing steeper losses: In a Wednesday note, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said he expects a “sustained decline” in the sector through next spring, with prices falling as much as 20% from their peak by the middle of next year and in time helping rent inflation, which climbed 7% year over year last month, come down next year.
“Sales lag mortgage applications, which continue to fall and point to further significant declines,” Shepherdson said, predicting sales are on course to drop by another 10% or so within the next two months and adding that “even that might not be the low,” depending on what happens to mortgage rates over the next few weeks.
“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Yun says. “Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”
On Wednesday, real estate brokerage Redfin reported that the ten regions where housing is cooling the fastest are almost all either costly West Coast markets, or places that drew scores of relocating home buyers during the pandemic and became significantly less affordable. They include San Jose, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Denver.
“Housing, in short, is in recession, and everything connected to housing either is in recession now or soon will be, but the rest of the economy is not in recession because a regular housing downturn is not enough to crash the 90% of [gross domestic product] that is not housing,” says Shepherdson.
I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business
Source: Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop
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Critics by Amanda Lauren
Fall has arrived and if you think your home needs a little upgrading after the summer, you’re probably right. But while most people associate fall decor with pumpkin spice, the color brown, tacky statement pillows, or home fragrances that smell like food, a fall refresh doesn’t have to mean any of this. We’re not quite ready for the holidays, so there is plenty of time to focus on spaces such as bedrooms, kitchens, and bathrooms by adding fresh bedding, chic accessories and luxurious home fragrances. From new launches to old favorites, here’s everything your home needs right now.
Still working from home? Say farewell to ordinary office chairs. Why not upgrade your comfort and style at the same time with a chic office chair from Elizabeth Sutton Collection? After all, you need to sit somewhere. With several styles available and a choice of gold or silver casters, and a white or black frame, these add a true pop of fun to any workspace.
Trying to manifest more this fall? It’s easy when you’re burning a Jill & Ally The Elements Crystal Candle. The brand is owned by everyone’s favorite New York Housewife Jill Zarin. Choose from blue agate (water), red agate (fire), green fluorite (earth), or clear quartz (air). Whether you use this candle as part of a manifestation ritual or just as decor, it’s a great way to add color or change the vibe of a room instantly. When the candle is finished burning, keep the crystal.
With the passing of Queen Elizabeth, this cool yet stylish portrait is the perfect way to pay tribute to Her Majesty in a living room, bedroom, or even dining room. Available in two sizes, it has been selling like hot crumpets. If you’re the only queen in your home, Cheery Designs has a great selection of unique pieces that might be more suitable.
Got too much sand in your sheets this summer? Treat yourself to something new. Boll and Branch recently launched a super luxurious Reserve Sheet Set. Made from the longest staple 100 percent organic cotton available, it’s impossible to go wrong with these sheets. Get ready for the silk-like feel to help lull you to sleep.
Those with more modern tastes will appreciate The Citizenry’s Stone Washed Linen Sheet Set. Available in a variety of colors and styles, including White, Olive, and Gingham, these sheets are a great way to warm up a modern bedroom. Don’t forget a linen bathrobe to match.
Launching on September 21st, Weezie Shower Curtains are the ideal bathroom accessory in a traditional to contemporary style bathroom. They complement the brand’s signature monogrammed towels instantly elevating the space to new levels of sophistication. Choose from two sizes and blue or grey scalloped edges.
However, if it is your kitchen that needs a little something extra, the L’Avant Collective Marble Dish Soap Kitchen Counter Tray will automatically boost your sink space. Made from the finest white Banswara marble and featuring brass accent details, it’s a chic way to display all of your favorite L’Avant Collective products.
Jenni Kayne’s cookware collaboration with Staub couldn’t possibly be any more stylish if the designer tried. Made in France, the White Truffle hue is the epitome of magnifique. Choose from an Oval Gratin or a Round Cocotte dish in a choice of two sizes. Each one has an exclusive nickel steel knob. It’s the perfect marriage of understated and jaw-dropping.
This topaz tumbler from curated online marketplace Berner and Co is a sleek way to serve everything from sparkling water to cool cocktails at your Fall soiree (or just to make any meal feel a bit more festive). Take your tablescape to brand new heights with these fabulous drinking vessels.
Speaking of tablescapes, there’s no easier way to create one than with The Bouqs new fall flower collection. Whether you prefer white arrangements, something with crimsons and oranges, or perhaps plants instead of flowers, there is something for every aesthetic. Better yet, with a subscription, you can send a monthly arrangement to yourself or to someone else and change it up each month.
But if you want to buy an arrangement and have it last for up to a year, it’s impossible to go wrong with Venus Et Fleur. The new stone collection is a welcome upgrade from the brand’s signature packaging. While the marble vessels are undeniably luxe, the sandstone vases are a great complement to a minimalist room. Choose from a variety of roses and other arrangements.
Forget books of matches and disposable plastic lighters, Seth Rogen has figured out a way for matches to go upscale with the Houseplant Pebble Match Strike. It looks like two stones, but open up this modern objéct to find a stash of matches. Keep it on a bar cart, side table or to decorate a bookshelf.
But sometimes fires aren’t always welcome, which is why it’s important for every home to have a fire extinguisher within reach. Fortunately, Weston Table makes decorative and functional ones. Choose from a variety of styles from constellations to whale and dog designs. This also makes a smart housewarming gift. Ten percent of sales are donated to the National Parks Foundation.
Fable recently launched a gorgeous collection of dinnerware perfect for any fall table. Cool and modern, the green color is a simple way to add a rustic hue to your table, whether you’re having a dinner party or just want to make things look nicer every day.
But those with more traditional tastes will absolutely fawn over Dondolo’s tabletop collaboration with dress designer Sue Sartor. Choose from Peony White or Peony Pale Blue Dinner Plates and Salad Plates. Each item is handcrafted and unique. Don’t forget to add the matching placemats and napkins. What a dreamy way to bring a touch of the south to any table.
Neon Lace’s Drink Dresses serve the same purpose as wine charms without looking hideous. Available in linen or lace, these decorative accessories make everything from wine to coupe glasses look all dressed up for the party.
Why shouldn’t your fridge have a designer touch? These cute Kate Space food containers are the perfect way to store leftover food. The Floral Fields pattern has a lively vintage vibe with a bamboo top that reads “Anything is possible.” Far nicer to eat from on the go than a standard glass food container, it makes any leftover meal taste just a little bit better.
But if your pantry shelves or refrigerator are in desperate need of a makeover, Home+Sort’s line of organizers with mDesign will check every box. From airtight jars perfect for rice to lovely lattice baskets made for holding snacks or boxes of pasta, you will wonder how you ever lived without this indispensable product line.
If you like to display olive oil in the kitchen or on the table, why not choose a delicious one with a stylish bottle such as Branche Olive Oil? This farm-to-bottle extra virgin olive oil is made with olives from the south of Spain. With clean, modern packaging and a wood stopper, design is key here. No 1 has a bolder flavor and features a green bottle while No 2 has a milder flavor and has a white bottle.
Looking for an environmentally friendly way to clean up? Arbour Every Day Spray is the perfect way to do it. This fragrance-free spray works hard to clean up grease, grime, and everyday dirt quickly. Best of all, it is totally safe, non-toxic, and antimicrobial.
If you’re trying to cut down on plastic, live a more eco-friendly lifestyle, or simply dislike those cumbersome bottles of detergent or messy powders— you will love Ecos Plastic-Free Dishwasher Detergent Sheets. Just put a sheet in the soap compartment (you need to fold it a few times) and turn it on your desired setting. Your dishes will come out sparkling clean.
Traditional devotees will love the Coley Porter Side Table. It’s so versatile that it can work as a bedside table, a desk for smaller spaces, or even as a petite bar in a living room or dining room. Available through the brand’s quick ship program, it can be customized with a selection of fabrics and shipped in just ten days.
Why just grab some ice from the refrigerator when you can display it in a beautiful ice bucket from Katie Kime? The ultimate bar cart accessory, this bucket is available in lucite, gold and silver as well as more than 37 patterns and colors. Don’t forget to add a monogram. This also makes a very thoughtful gift, especially for someone who frequently entertains.
Make this lucite dish from ArtSugar the true star of your coffee table or nightstand. Perfect for jewelry, tiny candies or just to be decorative, it’s a great accessory for any surface that needs a touch of fun.
Looking for some extra inspiration for your renovations this fall? Interior designer Anne Hepfer’s book Mood has all the inspiration you need. They say not to judge a book by its cover, but this book’s bold royal blue cover is showstopping. Just wait until you see all the beautiful projects featured inside the pages.
Want your home to smell like heaven all the time? Inspired by the scent of exotic white flowers, the Kai Reed Diffuser gets pretty close. With a modern square bottle and brown reeds, it’s a truly decorative accent that also makes a very thoughtful gift. Better yet, it’s free of parabens, sulfates, phthalates, and phosphates. Not into reed diffusers? Candles and room spray are also available in the brand’s signature as well as Rose scents.
But if you prefer to diffuse an essential oil, opt for the Aroma Om Stone Diffuser in stone. Clean and minimalist looking, it features a matte finish and ceramic cover. It mists for up to three hours and shuts off automatically. It can also light up and be used as a nightlight.
34 boulevard Saint Germain is the newest fragrance from famed perfumer Diptyque. The chic candle is packaged in an opaline glass vessel and features notes of black current leave, moss, and florals. It has a spicy woodsy scent that’s undeniably sophisticated. Make any room feel perfectly on brand this fall.
Pets are great, but the odors they create leave much to be desired, especially on carpets and upholstery. Fortunately, Zoop is amazing at getting rid of pet odors and stains. Best of all, it has a fresh scent (not a chemical scent) and each bottle lasts for months. Stock up before it gets sold out again.
Are your knives feeling a little dull? Upgrade this season with a set of highly functional knives that just happen to be sleekly designed. Material knives are made from Japanese stainless steel and high carbon. This set includes a bread knife, paring knife, and chef’s knife. The sage handles simply stun.
There’s nothing that feels like a fresh, new tea towel. Magic Linen Ruffle Trim Linen Tea Towels are just so pretty and classic. Whether you’re drying off plates every day or a platter post-dinner party, these tea towels are a must. Match any kitchen with twelve different colors and prints from neutrals to shades of blue and stripes.