Here’s Why Ethereum (ETH) Price Can Plunge More Ahead

Ethereum, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency has been trading under major selling pressure. ETH prices have dropped by 40% over the past 30 days. However, expert suggests that this drop may continue further.

July/August can be worst months

Daniel Cheung, Co founder of Pangea Fund Management in a Twitter thread mentioned a massive short opportunity for Ethereum at $1,200 in the next 2 months. He suggests that the market hasn’t yet seen the capitulation yet. It added that July and August are lined up to be the worst months ahead.The fund manager highlighted that currently, the market is in the Macro trade regime. The Bitcoin and Ethereum trends suggest that the crypto market has been trading very sensitively to inflation.

The recent selling pressure has led the Global crypto market cap to plunge by another 5% over the past day. It now stands at $902 billion. The digital asset market recorded its all time high (ATH) of $3 trillion in November 2021.

Ethereum price can drop by 40%

The world’s second largest crypto is still likely to be levered and liquid bet on Nasdaq and that too for the next 2 months. He believes that Nasdaq still has a lot of room to fail ahead. It is still down by 30% from the recent ATH with a prior drawdown. Cheung added that a further 20% downside is still in the frame for QQQ and 40% for Ethereum.

ETH prices are down by more than 9% in the last 24 hours. It’s trading at an average price of $1,111, at the press time. Its 24 hours trading volume is up by 7% to stand at $14.6 billion. However, it is still down by 77% from its all time high.

By Ashish Kumar

Critics by Lapin

Ethereum price analysis is bearish today as we have seen more downside reached over the last 24 hours with a steady downside momentum. Therefore, we expect ETH/USD to drop even lower and look to retrace even lower. The next obvious target is the $1,050 support, which, if broken, would lead to a lot more downside in July.  The market has traded in the red over the last 24 hours. The leader, Bitcoin, lost 4.81 percent, while Ethereum a more substantial 9.17 percent. The rest of the top altcoins have followed close by, with some declining even further.

Ethereum price movement in the last 24 hours: Ethereum breaks past $1,175

ETH/USD traded in a range of $1,111.20 to $1,229.74, indicating substantial volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 5.36 percent, totaling $14.58 billion, while the total market cap trades around $135.5 billion, resulting in market dominance of 15.13 percent.

ETH/USD 4-hour chart: ETH targets $1,050 next?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Ethereum price still testing further lows with no signs of reversal just yet. Therefore, more downside should follow to the $1,050 previous local swing low. Ethereum price action has seen strong bullish signals over the second half of June. After the initial reaction from the last swing low at $1,050, ETH/USD retraced to $1,175, setting a strong lower high. However, further downside did not follow as the $1,050 offered strong support.

From the newly found local higher low, ETH rallied higher one more time last week. A new high was set at $1,275, indicating that the several-week bearish momentum could soon end. On Monday, bearish momentum took over as buyers became exhausted. After some , ETH/USD set a lower local high and broke past the $1,775 local support. Late yesterday the decline continued, pushing the Ethereum price as low as the $1,100 mark.

This means that bullish momentum could soon come back. However, as long as bearish candles are seen later today, we expect further downside at the $1,050 previous low to be reached soon. From there, much depends on how the market will react. If a break below this support follows, we could see a lot more downside and both lower lows and highs set in July. Alternatively, if the $1,050 mark holds, ETH could move into consolidation.

Ethereum price analysis: Conclusion 

Ethereum price analysis is bearish today as we have seen a lot more retrace from the previous swing high at $1,275 so far this week. Since no signs of reversal have followed today, we expect ETH/USD to move even further and target the previous local low. In case it is broken, ETH should see a lot more downside early in July.

Related news:

After Meltdown, Tech-Bottom Signals Have Yet to Scream ‘Buy Now’

Calling the bottom in the tech-sector meltdown isn’t easy, even after a $5.5 trillion wipe-out, yet there are some signals giving investors hope.

Tech stocks have been hammered this year as rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and soaring inflation form a perfect storm of negative catalysts. That’s hurt everyone from retail investors who loaded up on Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment exchange-traded funds last year to deep-pocketed asset managers who invested in Apple Inc.

The price charts paint a dire picture: The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index just capped its seventh straight week of declines, the longest such streak since 2011, and has shed nearly 30% from its peak last year. The U.S. trillion-dollar quartet of Apple, Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. has led the charge lower in the latest leg of this selloff.

Yet a number of investors are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. The Nasdaq 100 now trades for about 20 times its estimated forward earnings — in-line with long-term averages — as frothy valuations built up during the pandemic recede. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, home to chipmakers including Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, trades at about 15 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, well below a peak of 24 hit in early 2021.

“It’s hard to be patient when there’s been so much carnage. But the pain should end, possibly soon,” said Jordan Stuart, client portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Our recommendation is growth investors need to be ready.”

Last week, Jefferies strategists turned bullish on the information-technology sector, saying in a note that a “dash for cash” by investors discounting extreme interest-rate scenarios “has been more than reflected in the compression of market multiples.”

Source: After Meltdown, Tech-Bottom Signals Have Yet to Scream ‘Buy Now’

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.01%, got off to a rocky start this week. But that produced enough of an oversold condition that buyers stepped in and have taken the benchmark index all the way back to the top of its trading range, at 4700 points.

The lower end of the trading range is 4500 (see the accompanying chart, below), although there is also support at this week’s lows, 4530. SPX has tried many times to break out over 4705 and hold those gains but has been unable to do so. But market internals have improved somewhat, so maybe this time it will do so.

The extreme volatility that has been on display within the trading range has pushed the 20-day historical volatility (HV20) of SPX up to a historically large 21%. That is a sell signal in itself. Only if that volatility begins to retreat (falls below 15%, say), will this sell signal be terminated.

Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to rise — until yesterday (December 22nd), when they plateaued a bit. However, our computer analysis programs are still “saying” that these ratios are on a sell signal. Obviously, they are quite high on their charts, meaning they are oversold.

So a potential buy signal exists, but we need to see them begin to trend lower (and for the computer analysis programs to agree) before we can say that they are on buy signals.

Market breadth was abysmal when the market was going down. But it has recovered strongly with the rally since Monday, and now both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. We had a contingent bull spread recommendation in place and those contingencies have been fulfilled.

These oscillators had reached extreme oversold conditions in late November and early December — extremes not seen since the pandemic selling of March 2020. That sets the stage for a strong buy signal, and it is usually the second such one that is the “true” buy signal. This current signal is that second one, so this is promising for the bulls. For the record, the cumulative breadth indicators are nowhere near their old highs.

New 52-week lows have continued to outnumber new 52-week highs, even with the market rallying back this week. This situation could reverse in the coming week, but so far it has not. That means this indicator is still clinging to a sell signal. In a broad sense, it is not a constructive thing for SPX to be right at its highs, yet there are more stocks making new 52-week lows than making new 52-week highs.

The implied volatility indicators are mostly bullish, but not totally. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Action was wild in VIX, though, as it exploded to above 27, then closed below 23 on one day (Monday, December 20th).

It is the trend of VIX that represents something of a problem. That is, VIX has continued to close above its 200-day moving average, which is just below 19 and going sideways. VIX has nearly fallen to that level for the first time in a month (note the box on the accompanying VIX chart). A clear close below that 200-day MA will be another bullish sign for stocks.

More contents:

Why The Dow Plunged More Than 1,000 Points? Should I Wait For Stocks To Sink Lower

What a difference a day makes. Fresh off the best percentage gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.30% since Nov. 9, 2020, the blue-chip index got clobbered, along with the rest of the stock market, including the S&P 500 SPX, -0.57% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.40%.

Not even U.S. Treasurys were safe, with the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.127% climbing above 3% as prices fall.

Some experts attributed Wednesday’s rally to a statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that a 75-basis-point increase wasn’t being actively considered by policy makers at the central bank at coming meetings.

The remark came after the Fed on Wednesday delivered the first half-percentage-point interest-rate hike, as had been widely expected, since 2000, in the final months of President Bill Clinton’s second term.

The Fed has been hiking rates to combat a surge in inflation that materialized in the aftermath of the COVID-19 shutdowns and dislocations, and which has been exacerbated by bloody conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in late February.

Some industry watchers peg Thursday’s selloff partly to fears that inflation will continue to dog the economy in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world.

Data on Thursday showed that the productivity of American workers and businesses sank at an 7.5% annual pace in the first quarter, marking the biggest drop since 1947, amid supply shortages and production bottlenecks.

“It was a setback for our Roaring 2020s scenario of a technology-led productivity growth boom offsetting the chronic shortage of labor,” according to Yardeni Research, a provider of global investment strategy founded by Ed Yardeni, a MarketWatch contributor.

Meanwhile, Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in New York, said the day’s action reflects “a continuation of 2022’s market roller coaster of high volatility, with this session’s strong spiral downward erasing yesterday’s gains.”

Bassuk told MarketWatch that “investors are selling today on renewed concerns regarding the plethora of continued uncertainties.”

The AXS CEO pointed to tensions with China, Russia’s siege in Ukraine, as well as a mixed bag of corporate earnings and nagging concerns about COVID-19 hamstringing a more powerful recovery in parts of the world.

Recession fears and inflation worries have been the centerpiece of the current bout of bearishness on Wall Street. “There’s no doubt that inflation, rising rates and volatility will continue to characterize the market environment in [the second quarter] and beyond,” Bassuk said.

“What is really interesting about these markets is that there are these every-other-day changes in either direction where investors are outrageously bullish, or outrageously bearish the next day,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive and chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs in New York.

Indeed, MarketWatch’s Bill Watts wrote that, with the exception of 2020, the S&P 500 has already topped or is on track to exceed annual totals of 2%-or-greater moves for every year stretching back to 2011.

“Inflation may have peaked, growth may be slowing, but it is still positive. The consumer is still spending, [and] employment is at all-time highs,” she said, going on to point to the up to $2 trillion in excess savings said to have been amassed during the pandemic.

Market Extra (July 2021):

The volatile state of the market is stoking confusion about the outlook. Is this time to jump into stocks, or should investors wait for a better entry point? Or should we heed billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones’s advice and stay clear of traditional markets altogether?

History suggests that you can’t time the market and that, over a long period, the market wins. The big question is what’s your time frame what’s your tolerance for pain?

The slump in bonds, with yields rising as prices fall, is complicating matters for some investors. Treasurys, notably the benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.127%, traditionally are seen as a refuge in times of uncertainty, but they also have been undone given the Fed’s current rate-hike plan, which has led to selling in bonds in the hope of richer yields to come.

Source: Why the Dow plunged more than 1,000 points? Should I wait for stocks to sink lower? Here’s what some pros think. – MarketWatch

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More contents:

Based on 19 bear markets in the last 140 years, here’s where the current downturn may end, says Bank of America

Stock market selloff in ‘liquidation’ stage. Why it needs to get ‘hotter’ before it burns out.

This trader predicted the bond meltdown, tech selloff and oil’s surge. Here’s what she says is coming next.

Barron’s: JD.com and NIO Face More Delisting Concerns. The Stocks Are Falling.

The Dow Dropped Again, Jobs Growth Was Strong—and What Else Happened in the Stock Market Today

College enrollment is falling. Here’s how it could impact the economy

‘The pandemic boom in home sales is over’: Mortgage rates soar to highest level since 2009 as the Fed pressures the housing market

The long bull market run in bonds has come to an end,’ says Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd

Dollar soars as Bank of England’s grim economic forecast gives investors reason to sell off Treasurys, stocks

A rough 4 months for stocks: S&P 500 books the worst start to a year since 1939. Here’s what pros say you should do now.

China-focused ETFs sink as Blinken reportedly plans to affirm that China is the main U.S. rival

U.S. wealth grew by $19 trillion during the pandemic — but mostly for the very rich

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Crypto Prices Tumble Again After $300 Billion Sell-Off—How Low Can Bitcoin Go?

The price of bitcoin fell to a three-month low Saturday, continuing a slide that began Wednesday when the Federal Reserve sparked a broad sell-off by cautioning it may move more quickly than previously expected to reverse policy meant to bolster the economy during the pandemic, and experts forecast the latest crypto market drawback is likely to go on for weeks.

Bitcoin fell as much as 3% to below $41,000 by 1:45 p.m. ET, according to crypto data website CoinMarketCap, bringing its losses to more than 12% since the Fed warned it may move more aggressively to remove pandemic-era stimulus as it looks to combat high levels of inflation.

In a weekend email, analyst Yuya Hasegawa of cryptocurrency broker Bitbank cautioned he expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency could continue falling until the broader market, which has similarly struggled since the Fed’s Wednesday announcement, digests the likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates as soon as March.

Hasegawa said bitcoin could fall as low as $40,000 in the near term, but that the government’s consumer price index report due out next Wednesday could bring a rebound if it shows inflation spiked more than expected, stoking the inflationary fears that have lifted bitcoin to new highs as recently as November.

On Thursday, crypto billionaire Mike Novogratz, the CEO of financial services firm Galaxy Digital, told CNBC the selloff could push bitcoin down another 8% from current prices to as low as $38,000—a level unseen since early August.

“I’m not nervous in the medium term but we’re going to have a lot of volatility in the next few weeks,” the staunch bitcoin bull said told CNBC, before pointing to booming institutional adoption as a bullish indicator for the nascent space.

Novogratz wasn’t alone among billionaire crypto investors cheering bitcoin on during its latest sell-off: “So. much. money. patiently waiting to [buy the dip] in bitcoin,” Barry Silbert, the founder and CEO of crypto firm Digital Currency Group, wrote on Twitter Saturday afternoon.

Bitcoin was far from alone in falling Saturday afternoon. Over the past 24 hours, ether, binance coin and sol were down 5%, 6% and 3%, respectively—pushing losses to roughly 20% apiece over the last week.”Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a breach of the $40,000 level, and it could get bad for ether if it breaks the $3,000 level,” Oanda Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya wrote in a Friday email. Ether prices clocked in at about $3,034 on Saturday.  “The long-term outlook is still bullish for both the top two cryptocurrencies, but the short-term is looking ugly.”

Despite bitcoin’s bouts of intense volatility, Goldman Sachs co-head of global foreign exchange Zach Pandl wrote in a note to clients this week that the cryptocurrency could top $100,000 in the next five years. Pandl said he expects bitcoin’s share of the crypto market, currently about 41%, “will most likely rise over time as a byproduct of broader adoption of digital assets” and that the cryptocurrency will increasingly compete with gold as a hedge against inflation.

$1.9 trillion. That’s the value of all the world’s cryptocurrencies Saturday afternoon, down more than $300 billion, or 14%, since Wednesday and more than $1 trillion below an all-time high of $3 trillion in November. Over the last five years, bitcoin prices have skyrocketed about 4,300%.

Follow me on Twitter. Send me a secure tip.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com. And follow me on Twitter @Jon_Ponciano

Source: ‘Looking Ugly’: Crypto Prices Tumble Again After $300 Billion Sell-Off—How Low Can Bitcoin Go?

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Omicron Risk Unlocks Profit For Retail Traders Shorting Bitcoin

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued Monday night by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending Nov 23 revealed a three-fold increase in the number of short bitcoin futures contracts held by retail investors compared to the previous week. These holdings, called open interest, represent capital held at the CME as collateral for long and short trades.

Shattering the average number of short bitcoin futures held by retail traders (about 798 contracts through last week), the COT report showed a 200% jump in short bitcoin contracts from 887to 2,663. The monetary equivalent of this net short increase is $511 million, and it should be noted it did not come from trading in micro bitcoins (MBT) futures, which is still nascent and 20 times smaller than the BTC futures market.

This dramatic shift follows a temporary but equally sharp bullish (long bitcoin) move on the second half of October. Together, these moves suggest that perhaps wealthy retail investors, those able to purchase the typical $300,000 CME bitcoin futures contract, may be starting to place short-term speculative bets in tandem to profit from short-term movements in the volatile cryptocurrency market.

In recent weeks and months, the market for providing crypto trading insights has grown from trading platforms like LMAX Digital and Coinbase to also a few US banks with crypto research teams. Wealthy retail traders require specialized brokerage access to trade CME futures and this can be done through firms like ADM, Stonex, thinkorswim (owned by Schwab), and also a small number of investment banks that have authorized wealthy clients to buy and sell CME crypto futures.

One surprising development seen in the CME bitcoin futures market is the fluidity by which market participants take on and ease off trading risk. While retail traders are uncharacteristically short bitcoin presently, a small (eight to ten) group of asset managers active in CME futures have taken massive, long bitcoin futures positions in November, totaling more than 5,000 bitcoin futures contracts equivalent to $1.5 billion.

Thus, the long bitcoin futures holdings of commercial and retail traders seen in October amidst the ProShares BITO bitcoin ETF launch, ushered asset manager demand which they, in turn, received from institutional clients wanting a long bitcoin position in their funds.

Commercial traders, which are firms and/or professionals with deep industry and market knowledge generally hired to mitigate business risk through use of futures contracts, cut back sharply their long bitcoin futures holdings to pre-BITO levels but boosted sharply their ‘spread’ contracts – which is the practice of holding long and short positions in the same contract to provide liquidity to those who need it.

Separately and over recent weeks, this group of traders has built a large short position equivalent to $113 million worth of MBT futures contracts which makes them the largest short liquidity providers. Said differently, this group of traders went from facilitating liquidity for the large surge from bitcoin ETF in October to now getting back to a smaller exposure and selectively providing liquidity in new areas like MBTs.

Meanwhile retail traders shrewdly adopted the previously discussed short bitcoin futures position, betting on the price of bitcoin possibly falling below the $57,600 level bitcoin seen last week – bitcoin did fall to a low of 53,200 on Nov 28 and that could have provided some of these retail traders a profitable exit of their short trades – which become profitable as the price of an asset decreases in value.

The big picture remains bright for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at large as institutional demand continues to grow, with large asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock allowing funds they manage to pour approximately $3 billion each into crypto stocks as of Nov 2021 and rival Fidelity nearly doubling to 200 their institutional clients – hedge funds, family offices, registered investment advisors, pensions and corporate treasuries – that use the firm’s bitcoin execution and custody services.genesis3-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-2-2-1

While bitcoin price has dropped 18% below its $69,000 Nov 10 high, this has been due to robust macro headwinds like rising inflation and the Omicron variant impact on the global economy, and not due to weak bitcoin demand. In fact, the sharp drop in crude oil prices – Brent crude oil price down 20%+ since Nov 10 – shows that Omicron uncertainty is providing an organic break to inflationary forces.

It will be weeks if not months until the world regains confidence that it can defeat the Omicron variant, and in the meanwhile it’s sensible to expect lower expectations for global economic growth, lower inflation, and a modest appreciation of risky assets like cryptocurrencies. For these reasons, shrewd investors will continue to look to crude oil price action as a proxy for the expected energy demand globally but also as a guide for bitcoin appreciation potential over the short term.Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.

I write about digital assets trends and am a leading creator of the Forbes Digital Assets tools and functionality our viewers require. I support the

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