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This Hedge Fund Superstar Thinks Climate Change Will Impact All Your Investments—And Soon

Robert-Gibbins-by-Levon-Biss-for-Forbes

Since November, Robert Gibbins has crisscrossed the globe attending scientific conferences, traveling from his home in Geneva, Switzerland, to Arizona, Spain and Austria. The events had a common theme—climate change—and were well attended by academics, bureaucrats and politicians. One group was conspicuously absent. “I didn’t see any other investors there,” he says.

That boggles his mind. “Climate change is something we have to include in every single analysis, every investment,” he says. Most people think—or hope—that global warming is something their children or grandchildren will have to reckon with. Gibbins disagrees. The 49-year-old founder of Autonomy Capital ($5.5 billion in assets) thinks that climate change is happening suddenly and soon.

He structures every bet his hedge fund makes around his belief that the world is skidding toward a future that’s overheated and underwater—and that carbon will be treated as a costly waste product that needs to be captured and stored. Gibbins has already made good money betting on European carbon-futures contracts and expects richer plays to come.

Gibbins has an impressive track record making big calls. His fund, which places large bets on sweeping economic and political trends, is an industry standout, returning an annualized 12.85% net of fees since its November 2003 inception, compared to 8.9% for the S&P 500 index.

The ski-happy, outdoors-loving son of a Vancouver real estate agent, Gibbins made stops at the University of Pennsylvania and the trading desks of JPMorgan and Lehman Brothers before starting Autonomy. For many countries, he believes, climate change will be a major stress on economic stability. If a country is a basket case now, it’s only going to get worse as the seas keep rising and other fast-paced changes hit. “It’s not enough anymore to create a cheap T-shirt, car or semiconductor,” he says. To that end, Gibbins recently shorted the debt and currencies of Turkey and South Africa. He views both countries’ governments—led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey and the ANC party in South Africa—as totally inept. “You can choose to be ruled by the ANC or Erdogan, or you can be a modern industrial economy,” he says. “You can’t have both.”

By contrast, he’s going long on Argentina. On recent trips there, Gibbins found people were exhausted after a decade of economic hardship and failed policies, convincing him the country won’t return populist Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to power (she last held the presidency in December 2015). The country’s debt is priced for disaster. “My view is, in Argentina, the society has had enough. It doesn’t want policies that are designed for the next three days,” Gibbins says.

As he sees it, all sophisticated investors these days have access to the best government and economic data. He travels 150 days a year in the pursuit of an edge and expects the 24 investment pros and economists working for him to do the same. He meets with local bureaucrats, journalists and business executives to gauge how decisions are made and how well local institutions function—and whether they can handle chal­lenges like climate change.

What about individual stocks? One obvious thought is to avoid property insurers like AllState and Travelers, which seem likely to get clobbered by rising costs, paying out more as weather-related damage piles up. Gibbins doesn’t buy it. He thinks insurers could fare just fine because much of their business is writing coverage for short periods, giving them the chance to reprice their products. Gibbins says REITs have a lot more risk.

You want even more against-the-grain thinking? Despite President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord, Gibbins anticipates the U.S. will eventually take the lead with Europe on a global deal to limit carbon emissions and penalize countries that don’t comply. So Gibbins thinks big oil stocks, like Exxon, or the currencies of oil-addicted nations, like Nigeria, are vulnerable.

I am a senior editor at Forbes who likes digging into Wall Street, hedge funds and private equity firms, looking for both the good and the bad.

Source: This Hedge Fund Superstar Thinks Climate Change Will Impact All Your Investments—And Soon

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How The Son Of A Hedge Fund Billionaire Plans To Cure FOMO With An App

Diesel Peltz, 25, son of hedge fund billionaire Nelson Peltz, is on a mission to cure FOMO (fear of missing out) with Twenty, an app that encourages offline interactions in the real world. Launched on Tuesday, Twenty, formerly known as InSite, seeks to relieve users sense of FOMO by alerting them to the location of their friends, who have to varying degrees disclosed their location, in hopes that offline plans to meet up, or “Hangouts” can be set.

“Our service is fundamentally about what you can share in the analog world,” Peltz told Forbes. “We tell people when they sign up to only add the people you actually want to hang out with in real life.”

For now, the company and its flagship app, have no way to monetize its services.

“The one KPI that we’ve optimized for is the number of real-life experiences,” Peltz said. In the last month, the number of IRL experiences initiated on Twenty has risen to 25,000, “over half” of users signed up in the past month continue to use the platform one month out.

Serial entrepreneur and co-founder Mark French adds that the value proposition for partnering and investing companies like Live Nation, Roc Nation, and talent agency Endeavor (formerly WME/IMG) is that the app will drive transactions, which Twenty hopes to monetize through purchases on the platform within six months.

By taking interaction offline and into the real world, Peltz and French hope to move users away from, “overutilization of social media”.

Elements of the social networking app may feel familiar, the location updates of Foursquare, friends and sharing aspects of Facebook, Instagram, and one could argue the immediacy of Twitter, but Peltz and backers of the project including Khaled Mohamed Khaled, more popularly known as DJ Khaled, argue that this is something different.

“I told my team two years ago, tech that helps people spend time together in real life is going to be the next big thing,” Khaled said in a company-issued statement.

It is ironic and perhaps unlikely that a solution to the endless scroll of social media would come via yet another mobile app, but those backing the product believe it can be a solution.

Arianna Huffington, co-founder of Thrive Global, a health and wellness startup and Huffington Post editor-in-chief along with former model and Casamigos Tequila founder Rande Gerber will join the board at Twenty once it is formed.

In the four years since Peltz dropped out of NYU and founded the company, he has taken his time to bring the company’s first product to market beta testing the app on college campuses including the University of Florida, the University of Wisconsin and Tulane University. Neither founder has felt the pressure to monetize.

Help from dad may have relieved the pressure.

The company completed two undisclosed funding rounds, the first led by Nelson Peltz, and market manager Ron Conway and his seed fund SV Angel. Dad still seems to be lending a hand in the last round of funding which added restaurant developer Tao Group, which is owned by Madison Square Garden, where Nelson Peltz is a board member. Nelson Peltz’ net worth stands at $1.6 billion, the investor started his career in food distribution and founded Trian Fund Management in 2005, which currently has $11 billion AUM.

Peltz says that the app doesn’t solve for users looking to experience JOMO (the joy of missing out) and acknowledges that the market is saturated with tools to share what you’ve already done.

“You construct your friend network for specific purposes, most people have a bloated network of people they don’t actually interact with,” said Peltz. Barring being ghosted, Peltz recommends only adding friend’s whose company you enjoy.

I serve as assistant editor for Forbes Innovation, covering cybersecurity and venture capital. I have covered politics at POLITICO, entertainment for Time Out New York,

Source: How The Son Of A Hedge Fund Billionaire Plans To Cure FOMO With An App

New Technologies Allow You to Do Business (and Compete) From Anywhere – Amarillo

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Everyone knows just how much of an impact technology has had on global business, but if there’s one segment that has benefited the most from technological innovation it’s entrepreneurs. With mobile phones, cloud computing, do-it-yourself accounting software and ubiquitous connectivity, business owners can now create successful companies quickly and from anywhere.

However, with so much technology out there, it can be hard to know what programs and tools are essential for getting a company off the ground and growing. There are some must-haves, though, including these five types of tech.

Super-Size Your Storage

In today’s world, most budding businesses need far more storage than their computers can provide. Things like high-resolutions photos, data-heavy PowerPoints and an endless stream of documents will max out CPU storage in no time. Fortunately, cloud-based companies like Dropbox, Box, Apple and Google offer several terabytes of data for a reasonable monthly cost.

These programs also make collaboration easier as you can quickly share files and folders with contractors and employees. Thanks to these storage sites that many small companies can create a global workforce from the start.

Keep Up With Collaboration

Whether you’re in an office or have a remote workforce located in different cities, being able to collaborate and connect with staffers quickly is a must. Over the last few years, sites like Slack, Basecamp, Trello and others have revolutionized the way small business employees interact with one another.

Forget e-mail–you can now send messages to individuals or teams in an instant, you can work together, in real-time, on complex projects, and you can even build camaraderie by creating “channels” dedicated to more social communication. Messages and files are also easily searchable, making it difficult to lose something important.

Crunch The Numbers

As excited you may be about your brilliant idea, you still need to run a business. That means keeping receipts, adding up bills, doing taxes and other more mundane work. While it may still be a good idea to have an accountant nearby, technology can, and should, take care of most of this work.

Quicken, the classic accounting software, is still popular for tax work, but other programs like Wave Accounting, Xero and Zoho Books come with a variety of features like invoicing, payroll, bill payments and other mission critical applications and fall well within the budgets of most small businesses.

Show Your Face

Instant messaging and email only goes so far. In many cases, you still want to see clients or employees face-to-face–maybe you have to walk them through a presentation or just want to catch up. That’s why having a good video program is critical for small businesses today.

You’ll want to find software that allows you hold meetings with multiple participants, share files with people on a call and you may want to be able to record conferences for future viewing. Google Hangouts, Skype for Business, Zoom.us and GoToMeeting are just some of the popular video conferencing sites to choose from. While it may not be quite as good as a face-to-face meeting, it saves a fortune in travel costs and wear and tear.

Set Up A Store

There was once a time when creating a consumer-focused e-commerce website was a painstaking process. Now, though, sites like Shopify and Tictail let even the smallest companies create sleek websites with all the e-commerce fixings. Companies like these have been a boon to entrepreneurs-

They let users create online shops in snap and take a variety of payment options, such as credit card and PayPal, so that every potential customer can buy what you’re selling. It only takes a few hours to get a store up and running and turn your company into a potentially global business.

While there are plenty of other useful technologies out there–security software, customer relationship management programs and so on–incorporate these five tools into your budding business and you could find yourself ahead of the competition in no time.

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