A year ago, as the pandemic ravaged country after country and economies shuddered, consumers were the ones panic-buying. Today, on the rebound, it’s companies furiously trying to stock up. Mattress producers to car manufacturers to aluminum foil makers are buying more material than they need to survive the breakneck speed at which demand for goods is recovering and assuage that primal fear of running out. The frenzy is pushing supply chains to the brink of seizing up. Shortages, transportation bottlenecks and price spikes are nearing the highest levels in recent memory, raising concern that a supercharged global economy will stoke inflation.
Copper, iron ore and steel. Corn, coffee, wheat and soybeans. Lumber, semiconductors, plastic and cardboard for packaging. The world is seemingly low on all of it. “You name it, and we have a shortage on it,” Tom Linebarger, chairman and chief executive of engine and generator manufacturer Cummins Inc., said on a call this month. Clients are “trying to get everything they can because they see high demand,” Jennifer Rumsey, the Columbus, Indiana-based company’s president, said.“They think it’s going to extend into next year.”
The difference between the big crunch of 2021 and past supply disruptions is the sheer magnitude of it, and the fact that there is — as far as anyone can tell — no clear end in sight. Big or small, few businesses are spared. Europe’s largest fleet of trucks, Girteka Logistics, says there’s been a struggle to find enough capacity. Monster Beverage Corp. of Corona, California, is dealing with an aluminum can scarcity. Hong Kong’s MOMAX Technology Ltd. is delaying production of a new product because of a dearth of semiconductors.
Further exacerbating the situation is an unusually long and growing list of calamities that have rocked commodities in recent months. A freak accident in the Suez Canal backed up global shipping in March. Drought has wreaked havoc upon agricultural crops. A deep freeze and mass blackout wiped out energy and petrochemicals operations across the central U.S. in February. Less than two weeks ago, hackers brought down the largest fuel pipeline in the U.S., driving gasoline prices above $3 a gallon for the first time since 2014. Now India’s massive Covid-19 outbreak is threatening its biggest ports.
For anyone who thinks it’s all going to end in a few months, consider the somewhat obscure U.S. economic indicator known as the Logistics Managers’ Index. The gauge is built on a monthly survey of corporate supply chiefs that asks where they see inventory, transportation and warehouse expenses — the three key components of managing supply chains — now and in 12 months. The current index is at its second-highest level in records dating back to 2016, and the future gauge shows little respite a year from now. The index has proven unnervingly accurate in the past, matching up with actual costs about 90% of the time.
To Zac Rogers, who helps compile the index as an assistant professor at Colorado State University’s College of Business, it’s a paradigm shift. In the past, those three areas were optimized for low costs and reliability. Today, with e-commerce demand soaring, warehouses have moved from the cheap outskirts of urban areas to prime parking garages downtown or vacant department-store space where deliveries can be made quickly, albeit with pricier real estate, labor and utilities.
Once viewed as liabilities before the pandemic, fatter inventories are in vogue. Transport costs, more volatile than the other two, won’t lighten up until demand does. “Essentially what people are telling us to expect is that it’s going to be hard to get supply up to a place where it matches demand,” Rogers said, “and because of that, we’re going to continue to see some price increases over the next 12 months.” More well-known barometers are starting to reflect the higher costs for households and companies. An index of U.S. consumer prices that excludes food and fuel jumped in April from a month earlier by the most since 1982. At the factory gate, the increase in prices charged by American producers was twice as large as economists expected. Unless companies pass that cost along to consumers and boost productivity, it’ll eat into their profit margins.
A growing chorus of observers are warning that inflation is bound to quicken. The threat has been enough to send tremors through world capitals, central banks, factories and supermarkets. The U.S. Federal Reserve is facing new questions about when it will hike rates to stave off inflation — and the perceived political risk already threatens to upset President Joe Biden’s spending plans.“You bring all of these factors in, and it’s an environment that’s ripe for significant inflation, with limited levers” for monetary authorities to pull, said David Landau, chief product officer at BluJay Solutions, a U.K.-based logistics software and services provider.
Policy makers, however, have laid out a number of reasons why they don’t expect inflationary pressures to get out of hand. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said recently that officials should be “patient through the transitory surge.” Among the reasons for calm: The big surges lately are partly blamed on skewed comparisons to the steep drops of a year ago, and many companies that have held the line on price hikes for years remain reticent about them now. What’s more, U.S. retail sales stalled in April after a sharp rise in the month earlier, and commodities prices have recently retreated from multi-year highs.
Caught in the crosscurrents is Dennis Wolkin, whose family has run a business making crib mattresses for three generations. Economic expansions are usually good for baby bed sales. But the extra demand means little without the key ingredient: foam padding. There has been a run on the kind of polyurethane foam Wolkin uses — in part because of the deep freeze across the U.S. South in February, and because of “companies over-ordering and trying to hoard what they can.”
“It’s gotten out of control, especially in the past month,” said Wolkin, vice president of operations at Atlanta-based Colgate Mattress, a 35-employee company that sells products at Target stores and independent retailers. “We’ve never seen anything like this.”Though polyurethane foam is 50% more expensive than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, Wolkin would buy twice the amount he needs and look for warehouse space rather than reject orders from new customers. “Every company like us is going to overbuy,” he said. Even multinational companies with digital supply-management systems and teams of people monitoring them are just trying to cope. Whirlpool Corp. CEO Marc Bitzer told Bloomberg Television this month its supply chain is “pretty much upside down” and the appliance maker is phasing in price increases. Usually Whirlpool and other large manufacturers produce goods based on incoming orders and forecasts for those sales. Now it’s producing based on what parts are available.

Source: World economy: World economy is suddenly running low on everything – The Economic Times
References
- “THE GLOBAL ECONOMY | definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary”. dictionary.cambridge.org. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- “World Economy.” – Definition. American English Definition of with Pronunciation by Macmillan Dictionary. N.p., n.d. Web. 2 January 2015.
- World Population: 2020 Overview
- 2020 World Population Data Sheet
- “Gross domestic product, current prices & Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP”. World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015. International Monetary Fund. October 2015. Archived from the original on 11 October 2015. Retrieved 15 October 2015.
- “More QE From the Bank of England to Support the UK Economy in 2021”. Vant Age Point Trading. Retrieved 25 January 2021.
- [1]Archived 10 October 2018 at the Wayback Machine IMF GDP 2018 Data (October 2019)
- “Gross domestic product”. IMF World Economic Outlook. October 2019. Retrieved 16 May 2020.
- [2] IMF GDP (Nominal) Data (April 2021)
- [3] IMF GDP (PPP) Data (April 2021)
- “Gross domestic product, current prices”. International Monetary Fund. International Monetary Fund. April 2021. Retrieved 10 April 2021.
- “Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP; Current international dollar”. International Monetary Fund. April 2021. Retrieved 10 April 2021.Check
|archive-url=
value (help) - “GDP (PURCHASING POWER PARITY)”. CIA World Factbook. CIA World Factbook. 2014. Archived from the original on June 25, 2014. Retrieved October 7, 2014.
- Data from the United Nations is used.
- “World Bank GWP Growth Rate, 2020”. WorldBank.org. Retrieved 11 November 2020.
- “IMF World Economic Outlook, Crisis and Recovery, April 2009”. Imf.org. 16 April 2009. Archived from the original on 19 May 2012. Retrieved 17 July 2012.
- “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018”. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Development Policy and Analysis Division. Table A.3. ISBN978-92-1-109177-9. Archived from the original on 3 March 2018. Retrieved 2 March 2018.
- B. Milanovic (January 2002). “True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calculation Based on Household Surveys Alone”(PDF). Archived(PDF) from the original on 1 November 2011. Retrieved 13 May 2011.
- “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018”. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Development Policy and Analysis Division. Table I.2. p. 11. ISBN978-92-1-109177-9. Archived from the original on 3 March 2018. Retrieved 2 March 2018.
- “International Energy Statistics”. Archived from the original on 16 August 2016. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
- “International Energy Statistics”. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
- “Development aid stable in 2014 but flows to poorest countries still falling”. OECD. 8 April 2015. Archived from the original on 23 July 2015. Retrieved 23 July 2015.
- global cellphone penetration reaches 50 percentArchived 17 December 2008 at the Wayback Machine
- “World Internet Usage Statistics News and World Population Stats”. Internetworldstats.com. Archived from the original on 23 June 2011. Retrieved 8 June 2015.
- “The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency”. Archived from the original on 25 June 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
- “3. Military expenditure – SIPRI”. Archived from the original on 25 May 2017. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
- China poised to overhaul US as biggest publisher of scientific papers, Alok Jha, Monday 28 March 2011, The Guardian
“Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) | Data”. data.worldbank.org. Retrieved 12 December 2017