Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

On a price return basis, the Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio (+4.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 0.6% from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (+4.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 1.0% over the same time. The best performing large cap stock was up 12% and the best performing small cap stock was up 14%. Overall, nine out of the 20 Safest Dividend Yield stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022.

This Model Portfolio only includes stocks that earn an attractive or very attractive rating, have positive free cash flow and economic earnings, and offer a dividend yield greater than 3%. Companies with strong free cash flow provide higher quality and safer dividend yields because I know they have the cash to support the dividend. I think this portfolio provides a uniquely well-screened group of stocks that can help clients outperform.

Since its spin-off from Dupont De Nemours Inc. (DD) in 2019, Dow has grown revenue by 13% compounded annually and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 65% compounded annually. Dow’s NOPAT margin rose from 6% in 2019 to 13% over the trailing twelve months (TTM), while invested capital turns improved from 0.7 to 1.1 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margins and invested capital turns drive the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 4% in 2019 to 14% TTM.

Figure 1: Dow’s Revenue and NOPAT Since 2019

Dow has increased its regular dividend from $2.10/share in 2019 to $2.80/share in 2021. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, provides a 5.5% dividend yield.

Dow’s free cash flow (FCF) comfortably exceeds its regular dividend payments. From 2019 to 2021, Dow generated $16.0 billion (43% of current market cap) in FCF while paying $5.7 billion in dividends. Over the TTM, Dow has generated $6 billion in FCF and paid $2 billion in dividends. See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Dow’s FCF vs. Regular Dividends Since 2019

Companies with strong FCF provide higher quality dividend yields because the firm has the cash to support its dividend. Dividends from companies with low or negative FCF cannot be trusted as much because the company may not be able to sustain paying dividends.

DOW Is Undervalued

At its current price of $52/share, DOW has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.3. This ratio means the market expects Dow’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 70%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Dow grew NOPAT by 65% compounded annually since 2019.

Even if Dow’s NOPAT margin falls to 9% (vs. 13% over the TTM) and the company’s NOPAT falls 5% compounded annually over the next decade, the stock would be worth $75+/share today – a 44% upside. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. Should the company’s NOPAT not fall at such a steep rate, or even grow from current levels, the stock has even more upside.

Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dow’s 10-K and 10-Qs:

Income Statement: I made $3.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of removing $930 million in non-operating expenses (2% of revenue).

Balance Sheet: I made $16.6 billion in adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net increase of $11.3 billion. The most notable adjustment was $9.0 billion (18% of reported net assets) in other comprehensive income.

Valuation: I made $24.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $19.8 billion. Apart from total debt, one of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $6.1 billion in underfunded pensions. This adjustment represents 16% of Dow’s market value.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, and Brian Pellegrini receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses.

Source: Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

Critics by Macrotrends

Dow annual/quarterly free cash flow history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Free cash flow can be defined as a measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

  • Dow free cash flow for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was 2,607.00, a year-over-year.
  • Dow free cash flow for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was , a year-over-year.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2021 was $4.79B, a 18.72% decline from 2020.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2020 was $5.893B, a 48.51% increase from 2019.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2019 was $3.968B, a 91.69% increase from 2018.

Dow annual/quarterly revenue history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Revenue can be defined as the amount of money a company receives from its customers in exchange for the sales of goods or services. Revenue is the top line item on an income statement from which all costs and expenses are subtracted to arrive at net income.

  • Dow revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $15.664B, a 12.81% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $60.129B, a 30.19% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2021 was $54.968B, a 42.62% increase from 2020.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2020 was $38.542B, a 10.27% decline from 2019.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2019 was $42.951B, a 13.41% decline from 2018.

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Dow (DOW) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Dow net profit margin as of June 30, 2022 is 11.06%.

Current and historical p/e ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under valued and is the most widely used valuation measure. Dow PE ratio as of August 03, 2022 is 5.40.

Current and historical current ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. Current ratio can be defined as a liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay short-term obligations. Dow current ratio for the three months ending June 30, 2022 was 1.64.

Historical dividend payout and yield for Dow (DOW) since 2021. The current TTM dividend payout for Dow (DOW) as of August 03, 2022 is $2.80. The current dividend yield for Dow as of August 03, 2022 is 5.43%.

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Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft And Alphabet Signal Q2 Could Be A Bottom

Big Tech earnings were off to a solid start on Tuesday when Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were especially welcomed as many companies have been missing on operating margins and cash flow. Meanwhile, Microsoft delivered free cash flow of $17.8 billion and net profits of $16.7 billion along with upbeat guidance for the year. Similarly, Google reported strong free cash flow of $12.6 billion and net profits of $16 billion in the recent quarter.

The same was not true for Meta, which primarily stumbled on its Q3 guide. The company reported its first decline in revenue in company history and guidance for next quarter missed due to FX headwinds. Analyst expectations for Q3 were for $30.4 billion, or 5% growth. Instead, the company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance with the current exchange rates creating a 6% headwind.

Alphabet: Search is Resilient

The company reported revenue of 13%, or 16% in constant currency, for a total of $69.7 billion. The operating margin was flat year-over-year, which is a win. Operating expenses grew 24% yet the operating margin was in line with previous quarters at 28% for $19.58 billion in operating income.

The net margin was a bit weaker than previous quarters in 2021 at $16 billion yet in line with last quarter. The company has free cash flow of $12.6 billion. The company has $125 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company reported EPS of $1.21 compared to $1.36 for the same period last year.

Search was stable given the current environment at 13.5% growth to $40 billion and this provided relief that not all ad spend has been paused. Search was strong last quarter at 24% growth to $40 billion, and was flat sequentially in terms of total dollar amount.

The effects of Google’s large R&D department and advances in AI cannot be overstated when it comes to the resiliency of Search in the current environment. We are getting a very slight glimpse of what’s to come for Google in terms of its advertising dominance.

The expectations were that YouTube would weigh on the report yet YouTube provided a bit of growth at 5% year-over-year. The company was adamant that YouTube growth is low because of the tough comps. The tough comps was touched on many times, such as this: “the modest year-on-year growth rate primarily reflects lapping the uniquely strong performance in the second quarter of 2021.”

Notably, Google Cloud slowed to 35.6% growth down from 43.8% growth last quarter. This means Google Cloud is growing slower than Azure on a lower revenue base. This is something to monitor in the future.

Microsoft: Double-Digit Guide for FY2023

Many tech companies are declining to give guidance while Microsoft’s management provided strong guidance in both Q1 FY2023 and for FY2023. For Q1 FY2023, management provided a 10% guide across product lines for next quarter (this includes FX headwinds) and also provided guidance for fiscal year 2023 ending in June: “We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth in both constant currency and U.S. dollars. Revenue growth will be driven by continued momentum in our commercial business and a focus on share gains across our portfolio.”

Revenue grew by 12% YoY to $51.9 billion (missed Wall Street analysts’ estimates by 0.94%) and EPS came at $2.23 (missed estimates by 2.9%). The strong US dollar negatively impacted the revenue by $595 million and EPS by $0.04. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 28% YoY to $25 billion. The company’s results are good considering the various macro uncertainties, China lockdown, and the strong US dollar. FY2022 revenue grew by 18% YoY to $198.3 billion and net income increased by 19% YoY to $72.7 billion.

The company’s gross income increased 10% YoY to $35.4 billion. The gross margin decreased by 147 bps to 68.2% when compared to the same period last year. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate, the gross margin was relatively unchanged.

The operating income increased by 8% YoY to $20.5 billion. The operating margin decreased by 187 bps to 39.5%. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate and FX, the operating margin would be relatively unchanged.

The company’s cash flows continued to be strong in the recent quarter. Cash from operations grew by 8% YoY to $24.6 billion (47% of revenue) and free cash flow increased by 9% YoY to $17.8 billion (34% of revenue). The company has cash and investments of $104.8 billion and debt of $49.8 billion.

Despite weakness in PCs, the company’s other segments continue to grow. Intelligent Cloud grew 20% YoY to $20.9 billion and Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 13% YoY to $16.6 billion. The company also made an accounting change in the useful life for server and network equipment assets from four to six years which will extend the depreciation expenses for the company.

Amy Hood said in the earnings call, “First, effective at the start of FY ’23, we are extending the depreciable useful life for server and network equipment assets in our cloud infrastructure from 4 to 6 years, which will apply to the asset balances on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022, as well as future asset purchases.

As a result, based on the outstanding balances as of June 30, we expect fiscal year ’23 operating income to be favorably impacted by approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year and approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter.”

Meta: Misses Q3 Expectations

The market does not need a perfect quarter for Q2 given the numerous headwinds facing tech companies. What the market does need is a sign that a company may have bottomed and is able to guide growth (even if minimal) from Q2-Q3.

In Q2, Meta’s revenue declined for the first time in history. This was expected. However, what was not expected was the lower guide for the next quarter. The company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance. The guidance takes into consideration the weak advertising demand the company experienced in the recent quarter and also the foreign exchange headwinds of 6%. The investors were expecting a return of growth in the next quarter.

The company had a slight beat on DAUs at 1.97 billion versus 1.96 billion expected. Monthly users were 2.93 billion slightly missed expectations of 2.94 billion. Operating expenses rose 22% YoY to $20.4 billion. This led to the drop in the operating margin to 29% in the recent quarter compared to 43% in the same period last year. It also led to the 36% YoY drop in the net income to $6.69 billion. The EPS came at $2.46 compared to $3.61 in Q2 2021.

The company is looking to further reduce the operating expenses for the year to $85 billion to $88 billion from the last quarter guidance of $87 billion to $92 million and the prior estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion.

Apple: Strong results despite challenges

Apple released strong results despite the challenging macro environment, strong US dollar, and supply chain issues. Revenue grew by 1.9% YoY to $83 billion, which was in-line with the analysts’ estimates. It reported EPS of $1.20, which beat estimates by $0.04 (4% beat).

The product segment revenue declined marginally by 0.9% YoY to $63.4 billion and the services segment revenue grew by 12% YoY to $19.6 billion. The company’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high. It had more than 860 million of paid subscriptions, up 160 million in the past year.

The company did not give exact revenue guidance for the next quarter. Tim Cook, CEO of the company, said in the earnings call, “We’re going to accelerate revenues in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter and will decelerate on the Services side.”

The company’s gross margin was 43.26%, compared to 43.75% in the previous quarter and 43.29% in the same period last year. It was above the management’s guidance of 42% to 43%. Net income was $19.4 billion or $1.20 per share compared to $21.7 billion or $1.30 per share in the same period last year. It beat the analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.04.

The company had cash and marketable securities of $179 billion and a debt of $120 billion. The company reported strong operating cash flows of $23 billion (28% of revenue). The company returned over $28 billion to the shareholders in the recent quarter in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Royston Roche, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own Alphabet and Microsoft at the time of writing.

Beth Kindig is the CEO and Lead Tech Analyst for the I/O Fund with cumulative audited results of 141%, beating Ark and other leading active tech funds over four audit periods

Source: Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft And Alphabet Signal Q2 Could Be A Bottom

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2 Leading Tech Stocks to Buy in 2022 and Beyond The Motley Fool

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Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Despite a brutal selloff so far this year in the tech sector, Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Big Tech stocks ahead of upcoming second-quarter earnings this week, with the majority of experts predicting that companies like Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet can continue to post strong profits in the long run.

Though tech stocks have been hard-hit this year (with the Nasdaq down 25%) amid surging inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing recession fears, a majority of Wall Street analysts still maintain buy ratings on Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon ahead of key earnings results this week.

Three firms reiterated buy ratings on several big names Monday: Deutsche Bank predicted solid results from Apple, Bank of America expects Facebook parent Meta to see ad revenue take a smaller hit than expected and Oppenheimer predicts “robust” growth in Amazon’s AWS cloud services business.

Analysts note that while the tech sector is already slowing down, hiring across the board amid the more challenging economic environment, after a big selloff earlier this year, valuations are now looking much more attractive.

Netflix and Tesla saw their stocks rally last week after “better than feared” results, while Snap delivered “another train wreck quarter that highlights a digital ad slowdown, Apple iOS privacy headwinds and TikTok competition further heating up,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

While there’s been some “good and bad news” in the tech sector, “there are some encouraging signs” and investors can now buy shares in some of the biggest companies at a more attractive entry point, says Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist for Ally.

Among the more than 250 combined analysts covering the five Big Tech companies reporting earnings this week—Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon—fewer than five have sell ratings—a sign of just how bullish Wall Street is on some of America’s most valuable tech companies.

Alphabet and Microsoft kick off Big Tech earnings on Tuesday. Meta reports Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday. “Investors should be selective when picking stocks within the tech sector,” says David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs. “The strongest types of stocks are the ones where cash flows are strong and valuations underestimate the company’s ability to generate cash flows in the future.”

He especially likes Google parent Alphabet, which is trading at a “much cheaper” valuation than its peers and should continue to outperform, thanks to its ability to keep innovating. Trainer is “not as confident” about Facebook parent Meta, however, questioning the company’s “ability to sustain profits,” especially as it struggles to retain users amid increased competition from the likes of TikTok. His firm also remains bullish and “big fans” of Apple, though the stock is still somewhat expensive, he adds.

All of the Big Tech stocks have seen big losses so far this year, though they have recovered somewhat in recent months. Meta has suffered the greatest losses, with its market value falling by roughly half as Facebook’s ad business continues to struggle. Amazon and Alphabet are both down roughly 25%, Microsoft more than 20% and Apple 15%.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Critics by

In a single two-and-a-half-hour stretch on Jan. 25, Microsoft Corp. stock erased $156 billion of its shareholders’ money, then rebounded, recovering all of its losses and adding $74 billion. In one sense this was just another lurch in the markets’ wild ride in 2022, as investors adjust to recovering economies and the prospect of rising interest rates. But it also points to a new environment in which the most valuable U.S. tech companies are going to have to work harder to justify their trillion-dollar or near-trillion-dollar valuations.

The Big Tech companies are still doing well. The day after Microsoft’s earnings, Apple reported a quarterly performance that wildly exceeded expectations. On Feb. 1, Alphabet also beat analysts’ projections. Share prices for both companies spiked—but remain below their peaks. The way Microsoft’s white-knuckle afternoon played out is particularly illustrative of the shifting environment: At 4 p.m. New York time, it released quarterly financial results.

They exceeded analysts’ expectations, except for one crucial number: Growth slowed slightly at its lucrative Azure cloud computing business. Investors panicked, sending shares down as much as 6.8% in aftermarket trading. Shortly after 6 p.m., Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood told analysts that cloud computing growth would accelerate again in the next fiscal quarter. The stock jumped, erasing the earlier losses.

Short-term stock gyrations have limited predictive power. But the activity around Microsoft’s earnings highlighted how negatively investors are now inclined to react to slowing growth at key units, even if revenue and earnings beat expectations.

A standard way to look at how excited investors are about a particular company is to compare its share price with its expected earnings. In January 2017 the stocks of the five most valuable tech companies—Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft—traded in line with the S&P 500 as a whole, at 19 times their predicted earnings. By September 2020 that multiple for the Big Tech companies was 42, while the market as a whole traded at a 27 multiple.

Investors were rewarded. Apple shareholders enjoyed an average 43% annual return over the past five years if they reinvested all their dividends back into the stock. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google generated average returns of 38%, 28%, and 26%, respectively. Even Facebook’s relatively modest 18% outperformed the S&P 500’s average of 16%.

The lockdowns helped widen the gap between tech and everyone else, according to Kasper Elmgreen, the head of equities at Amundi SA. “The economy gets turned off, so we had an historic economic contraction that hit [vehicular] traffic, leisure, industrials, construction, financial services, and so forth hardest,” he says.

That could be changing. The Covid-19 omicron wave is receding in many places, and businesses that suffered during the pandemic could benefit more than tech companies from a renewed recovery. This could send investors looking to increase their stakes in companies they’ve spurned for the past two years while they focused on the tech giants.

“The whole case for investing in these companies and inflating their premiums was the fact that growth was scarce and they had the strongest growth prospects in the S&P 500,” says Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. “As economic conditions improve, that premium will naturally deflate.”

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Dow Jumps 700 Points, Analysts ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ After More Solid EarningsNZ sharemarket falls another 0.2%, underperforms Wall Street Stuff.co.nz

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DealCheck The Best Property Detailed Listing Price & Value Analysis Company

We’ve focused on building a property analysis platform that is quick and easy to use, but at the same time offers powerful features for more experienced investors. And we’ve always made sure you can seamlessly use DealCheck on any computer, phone or tablet.

Today, DealCheck is used by over one hundred fifty thousand real estate investors, agents, brokers and wholesalers to analyze a wide range of investment properties all around the world.

Rental properties are the most common type of real estate investment, thanks to their ability to generate consistent passive income and build lasting wealth. DealCheck makes it easy to analyze buy & hold, rehab & hold, Airbnb, vacation and other types of rental properties with an all-inclusive rental property calculator.

  • Analyze potential cash flow, profitability and required acquisition capital of traditional and short-term rental properties.
  • Analyze buy & hold, rehab & hold, Airbnb’s, vacation rentals and house hacking investing strategies.
  • View dozens of analysis metrics, including cap rates, COC, ROE, ROI, IRR, rent to value, GRM and break-even ratios.
  • Explore different acquisition and financing strategies to find the most profitable investment approach.

Quickly search for properties and import their description, list price, value & rent estimates, property taxes, photos and more. Or use our step-by-step wizard to enter the data manually.Fill in your purchase price, financing, closing costs, rehab budget, rent roll and estimated expenses. Configure dozens of parameters to structure the exact deal you want.

Instantly view each property’s cash flow, cap rate, ROI, profit from sale, acquisition costs and more. Explore long-term cash flow projections for rentals & BRRRR’s, and profit projections for flips. Browse recent sales comps, comparable rental listings and market statistics. Get after repair value (ARV) and rent estimates based on the unique characteristics of the property you’re analyzing.

Use the offer calculator to figure out the highest price you can offer to make each deal work for you. Select from over a dozen criteria based on your unique investment approach.Export each property’s analysis, projections, comps and photos in one complete online or PDF report. Instantly share property reports with lenders, partners or clients.

Trusted by over 200,000 professionals worldwide:

Real Estate Investors

Whether you need to evaluate a single SFR or analyze dozens of multi-family buildings, our software will help you make smarter and more educated investment decisions.

Agents, Brokers & Wholesalers

DealCheck makes it easy to present properties to potential buyers with one-click marketing reports. Add your contact info and logo to each report to really impress your clients.

Homeowners

Thinking about turning your home into a rental? Use DealCheck to help you figure out how much passive income you will generate each month.

Perform accurate property analysis in seconds

DealCheck’s analysis tools are powerful, yet incredibly easy to use. Calculate all important metrics for rentals, BRRRR’s, flips, multi-family, commercial buildings and Airbnb’s.

Import property data from public records

Quickly search public records & online listings and import property details, list price, estimated value & rent, property taxes, HOA fees and photos. Data is available for most US properties.

Customize each real estate deal, effortlessly

We understand that every deal is different. Our software provides virtually unlimited flexibility when entering financing, closing costs, repair budgets and operating expenses.

View cash flow and profit projections

Analyze long-term cash flow projections for rental properties and profit projections for flips. Quickly change deal parameters and see how they will impact your profit and returns.

Look up recent sales and rental comps

Estimate after repair values and potential rents with confidence. View recent sales comps, comparable rental listings and market statistics. Available for most US properties.

Screen properties with your investment criteria

Set up detailed purchase criteria and focus on the metrics that are important to you. Instantly screen properties with your criteria and find the best deals quickly.

Calculate maximum allowable offers to sellers

Use our offer calculator to figure out the highest price you can offer to make each deal profitable. We use reverse valuation and over a dozen criteria to give you an accurate estimate.

Find contact information of property owners

Looking for off market properties? Look up property owners right from our app to help you run direct mail or lead generation campaigns. Available for most US properties.

Share property reports with custom branding

Create professional online or PDF reports with a single click. Add your custom branding and logo and share your reports with lenders, partners, investors or clients. In our latest update, we made several improvements to our rental and rehab analysis tools to help you analyze more complex rental projection scenarios, and quickly create reusable rehab templates.

Here is everything we’ve added:

Analyze Advanced Rental Projection Scenarios

You can now configure specific expenses to be paid in future years, allowing you to model planned renovations, capital improvements and other one-time expenses. You can also set the vacancy, appreciation, income and expense increases for each future year individually, to analyze lease-up periods or uneven property value, rent and expense increases

DealCheck has a lot of useful analysis points for both rentals and flips to run your numbers and make comparisons for your next REI offer! You can also see projections, add photos and branding to reports, and now check comps.This app has been a deal changer for our business. We are able to quickly evaluate flips, rentals, etc. The developers continue adding new features. I got so many of my friends on the app now!

Source: Property Analysis Software | DealCheck

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From Miners To Big Oil, The Great Commodity Cash Machine is Back, Energy & Commodities

JUST over five years ago, Anglo American was in deep trouble. The natural resources giant, beset by a collapse in commodity prices, scrapped its dividend and announced plans to close mines and cut thousands of workers. Amid talk of an emergency capital raise, its market value fell to less than US$3 billion.

Last week, the trials of 2016 probably seemed like a parallel universe to its chief executive officer Mark Cutifani.

Fuelled by a rally in iron ore and other commodity prices, he announced record first-half earnings and billions in dividends. Anyone who took a punt on Anglo’s shares when they reached their nadir, would have seen a 14-fold increase as the market capitalization soared to US$55 billion.

“High commodity prices have been very important to us,” Mr Cutifani told investors last week. “We don’t think this is as good as it gets.”

Anglo American is one of many. With raw materials prices surging, the whole natural resources sector is showering shareholders with special dividends and buybacks as miners, oil drillers, trading houses, steelmakers and farmers reap billions in windfall profits.

The sector, marked down by investors because of its contribution to climate change and a reputation of squandering money on mega projects, is again a great cash machine.

The economic rebound from last year’s Covid slump has powered an explosive rally in commodity prices as consumers forgo vacations and dining out and spend their money loading up on physical goods instead: everything from patio heaters to start-of-the-art TVs. Politicians are helping, too, lavishing hundreds of billions on resource-heavy infrastructure projects.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a basket of nearly two dozen raw materials, surged to a 10-year high last week and is rapidly closing in on the record set in 2011.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has again surged above US$75 a barrel, copper is headed back towards US$10,000 a tonne, European natural gas is at its highest ever for the summer season, and steel is changing hands at unprecedented levels. Agricultural commodities such as corn, soya beans and wheat are also expensive.

“Demand continues to improve with increasing global vaccinations,” Joe Gorder, the chief executive of Valero Energy, one of the world’s largest oil refiners, said last week.

Even commodities long left for dead, like thermal coal, are enjoying a new life in 2021. Coal, burned in power stations to produce electricity, together with huge volumes of carbon emissions, is trading at a 10-year high.

While commodities prices are the main reason behind the turnaround, there are structural factors at play as well.

Miners and oil companies have cut spending in new projects savagely, creating a supply shortfall. The miners were first, as they curbed investment from 2015 to 2016 as investors demanded more discipline; oil companies followed up last year and some major energy companies last week announced further cuts in spending for 2021.

The result is that while demand is surging, supply is not – at least for now. The oil majors are benefiting too from the work of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries alliance of oil producers, which is still holding back a large share of output.

Anglo American, which announced US$4 billion in dividends, is probably the most remarkable turnaround story in the natural resources sector, but its profits were still dwarfed by its bigger rivals. Rio Tinto and Vale, the world’s two leading iron ore miners, together vowed to hand back more than US$17 billion in dividends recently. There is still more to come for investors, with both BHP, the world’s biggest miner, and Glencore, another big miner and commodity trader, yet to report.

And for once, the world’s biggest steelmakers were not only able to absorb the costs, but pass them on. An industry that has spent much of the last decade in crisis is now also able to reward long-suffering shareholders.

The world’s largest steelmaker outside China, ArcelorMittal, that was forced to sell shares and scrap its dividend just five years ago, posted its best results since 2008 last week and announced a US$2.2 billion share buyback programme.

The miners have stolen the spotlight from the energy industry, traditionally the biggest dividend payer in the natural resources industry.

Still, Big Oil recovered from the historic price collapse of 2020, when a vicious Saudi-Russian price war and the Covid-19 pandemic briefly sent the value of West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, below zero. Supported by rising oil, natural gas, and, above all, the chemicals that go into plastics, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, and TotalEnergies delivered profits that went to pre-covid levels.

With cash flow surging, Shell, which last year cut its dividend for the first time since World War II, was able to hike it nearly 40 per cent, and announced an additional US$2 billion in buybacks. “We wanted to signal to the market the confidence that we have in cash flows,” Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said.

Chevron and Total also announced they will buy shares. Exxon, though, is still licking its wounds and focused on paying down debt.

The more opaque world of commodity trading has also cashed in. Glencore said last week that it was expecting bigger trading profits than forecast, with rivals Vitol and Trafigura, two of the world’s largest oil traders, also benefiting from lucrative opportunities created by rocketing prices.

The agricultural traders have cashed on higher prices and unusually strong demand from China.

Bunge, a trader that is the world’s largest crusher of soya beans, told investors it expected to deliver its best earnings-per-share since its initial public offer two decades ago. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, another big American grain trader and processor, also flagged strong earnings. And Cargill, the world’s largest agricultural trader, is heading towards record earnings in its 2021 fiscal year.

Whether the natural resources boom can last is hotly contested. Many investors worry climate change makes the long-term future of the industry hard to read and they also fret about the tendency of executives to approve expensive projects at the peak of the cycle.

Mining executives fear Chinese demand will slow down at some point, hitting iron ore in particular. But the current lack of investments may support other commodities, like copper and oil.

But Shell’s Mr van Beurden summed up the bullish case last week: “Supply is going to be constrained, and demand is actually quite strong”. BLOOMBERG

Source: From miners to Big Oil, the great commodity cash machine is back, Energy & Commodities – THE BUSINESS TIMES

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