Stock Markets Failed To Rally On China Trade Deal, Here’s Why

Topline: Although the U.S. and China have finally agreed on an initial deal that’s expected to defuse the 19-month-long trade war and result in a rollback of both existing and scheduled tariffs, the stock market didn’t surge on the news. Instead, markets ended the day largely flat: The S&P 500 finished the day up by less than 0.008%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.012%.

Here’s why stocks didn’t make headway on Friday’s trade news, according to market experts:

  • The market may have already priced in expectations for an agreement prior to Friday: “Stocks already ran up 7% in just the past two months alone on the belief that a deal would be signed,” notes Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.
  • Some experts remain wary: “The devil remains in the details,” points out Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick. “We await further word on purported aspects of the agreement including purchases of U.S. farm goods, intellectual property protections, technology transfers and access to China’s financial sector.”
  • “Investors are right to be skeptical,” says Joseph Brusuelas, RSM chief economist. “There’s a limited framework to the deal, since both sides just wanted to agree and avoid the looming tariff deadline on December 15th.”
  • “Contrary to what many believed—and were told in news stories—there is no immediate tariff relief, just an agreement to eventually rollback tariffs later as phase two negotiations progress,” Zaccarelli points out.
  • “I’m still suspicious of a major rollback on existing tariffs,” Nicholas Sargen, economic consultant at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, similarly argues. “Don’t rule out a selective rollback, since Trump needs to maintain bargaining power—he has to keep his powder dry.”
                                   
                                   

Crucial quote: “Is this deal enough to give the US economy an added lift? I doubt it because to get that added lift we need businesses to ramp up capital spending—and they’re going to stay on the sidelines until there’s greater clarity and less uncertainty,” Sargen says. “If trade uncertainty was behind us, we’d have gotten a bigger pop in the market.”

What to watch for: “Both sides need to figure out translation and legal framework first—and if they don’t come to an agreement on that this deal could fall apart very quickly,” Brusuelas says. “We’ll have to see if it survives the weekend and into next week.”

Key background: Officials from both sides have been working tirelessly to hammer out a deal ahead of the looming December 15 tariff deadline. Reports came in on Thursday that negotiators had agreed to terms, and President Trump signed off on them later in the day. Wall Street cheered the good news, sending the stock market to new record highs, though the market’s reaction was notably more tempered on Friday, despite further confirmations that an agreement had been reached.

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I am a New York—based reporter for Forbes, covering breaking news—with a focus on financial topics. Previously, I’ve reported at Money Magazine, The Villager NYC, and The East Hampton Star. I graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2018, majoring in International Relations and Modern History. Follow me on Twitter @skleb1234 or email me at sklebnikov@forbes.com

Source: Stock Markets Failed To Rally On China Trade Deal, Here’s Why

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Hodges Funds’ Eric Marshall discusses opportunities in the stock market amid the US-China trade war with L Catterton Managing Partner Michael J. Farello and Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Scott Gamm and Julie Hyman. Subscribe to Yahoo Finance: https://yhoo.it/2fGu5Bb About Yahoo Finance: At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life. Connect with Yahoo Finance: Get the latest news: https://yhoo.it/2fGu5Bb Find Yahoo Finance on Facebook: http://bit.ly/2A9u5Zq Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter: http://bit.ly/2LMgloP Follow Yahoo Finance on Instagram: http://bit.ly/2LOpNYz

China’s Richest 2019: King Of Beverages Zong Qinghou Aims To Revitalize Wahaha

When Zong Qinghou travels abroad, he likes to visit local supermarkets. The 74-year-old founder of China’s largest privately held beverage company Hangzhou Wahaha Group isn’t shopping for himself, but doing a little firsthand market research. For example, when Zong visited Singapore in October, he bought boxes of fruit-flavored beer. Staff back in China then study these samples to see if they could be imported into China, or adapted to local tastes.

“Every new product can be used as a reference,” says Zong in an exclusive interview with Forbes Asia on the sidelines of the Forbes Global CEO conference last month in Singapore. Zong, who is chairman of Wahaha, is now under pressure to come up with fresh product ideas to rekindle consumer interest in his company, that he’s spent more than three decades running.

Today In: Asia

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The tycoon, who was China’s richest man in 2010, 2012 and 2013, saw Wahaha’s sales slide from 78 billion yuan ($11 billion) in 2013 to 46 billion yuan in 2017 before rebounding slightly to 47 billion yuan last year. His ownership of the company still gives him a fortune of $8.2 billion, but he is no longer No. 1, ranking instead as China’s 31st richest person.

One of the main reasons for the decline, say analysts, is that Wahaha hasn’t kept pace with changing consumer tastes in China. Unlike their parents’ generation who grew up drinking Wahaha’s cheap but tasty products such as bottled water and milk drinks costing less than 2 yuan, shoppers today want to spend more for something innovative and new. “Wahaha is still very price-focused, and hasn’t captured the trading-up trend as well as it could have,” says Mark Tanner, founder of Shanghai-based consultancy China Skinny.

A Chinese worker checks bottles of Wahaha purified water on the assembly line at a factory in... [+] Yichang city, central China's Hubei province.

Aly Song/Reuters/Newscom

Zong is unfazed. He vows to lift sales by at least 50% next year, to 70 billion yuan. While he concedes that Wahaha’s products was once perceived as cheap and old-fashioned, he says he’s working to modernize his products. The company, whose name is meant to mimic the sound of a child’s laugh, has recently started a major upgrade. Packaging has gotten a makeover to use brighter and more stylish colors, while ingredients like nuts and quinoa have been added to new yogurt lines to appeal to healthier lifestyles. Wahaha has also expanded into nutritional tablets and meal replacement biscuits, which Zong says are in line with dieting trends. He also plans to increase the current number of 6,000 distributors to 10,000 by year end, to ensure better distribution to every corner of China.

Yet perhaps the most notable change is Zong’s willingness to experiment with social media and e-commerce. In 2014, he famously pronounced at a conference that e-commerce was disrupting China’s “real economy.” The company as a result did not have much of an online presence, even as e-commerce exploded across China. “I don’t think traditional sales channels will change much,” Zong says. “People need to enjoy life, and to enjoy life, they need to go outside instead of staying at home hooked on their smartphones.”

Zong, in fact, still expects most sales to take place in traditional brick-and-mortar stores. That said, Wahaha has started to experiment with digital marketing for its products. A series of videos on the popular app TikTok app shows users posting 15-second clips of themselves pronouncing Wahaha in various humorous ways. The clips have been viewed almost one million times.

Some analysts hope Wahaha can do more of such efforts. Jason Yu, a Shanghai-based general manager at research firm Kantar Worldpanel says, “It is very hard to get consumer attention today, and if you want to do that, you have to engage and interact with them nonstop.”

For example, Wahaha’s competitor in bottled water, Nongfu Spring, has gained market share in part because of innovative advertising. One was a campaign where each bottle of Nongfu Spring water gave the buyer the right to cast one vote online for their favorite candidate in a popular TV talent competition show. Nongfu Spring was number one in China’s bottled water market in 2018, with an 11% share versus Wahaha’s 4% share, according to Euromonitor.

Zong’s ambitions, however, reach beyond China. He wants to start producing and selling Wahaha-branded yogurt and milk beverages overseas, after noticing that some Wahaha products are being exported by third-party traders. In the last few years, Zong has visited Southeast Asia, and identified Indonesia and Vietnam as two locations for factories to produce for local markets. Zong says, however, he wants to find the right local partner first before he moves forward with any overseas expansion.

China, he says, will always be Wahaha’s biggest market. Consumption will continue to grow, he says, as the middle class expands and spends on everything from education to travel. “If we can firmly establish ourselves in this market of 1.4 billion people, we can grow very big,” he says.

Don’t discount Zong. He has overcome many challenges in his long career. The entrepreneur didn’t venture into business until 1987, when he was already in his 40s. He started by selling snacks out of a canteen inside a local school in his native Hangzhou, then start producing and distributing milk. In 1988, Zong launched a nutritional drink for children, which became a national hit. Three years later, he acquired a state-owned factory, with sales reaching 400 million yuan the following year.

One of his biggest challenges was a tumultuous partnership started in 1996 with France’s food and beverage giant Danone. After initial success, the two had a falling out, and Zong eventually agreed in 2009 to buy out Danone’s 51% stake in their various ventures for an undisclosed price, although one media outlet put it at roughly $380 million. “Only cooperation based on mutual benefits and mutual respect can last,” he says of the former partnership.

Then in September 2013, he faced another challenge when he was attacked by a knife-wielding man, disgruntled after Zong turned him down for a job. The attacker managed to cut the tendons and muscle on two of Zong’s fingers, but he was back at work just a few days later.

Another big challenge is succession. Zong’s management style is famously budget-conscious and detail-oriented. He often eats at the company canteen with staff, and is known to fly economy class. He personally approves the purchase of all new company cars.

Naturally, Zong has long been looking at his only child, daughter Kelly Zong, to replace him. She’s had plenty of experience, working at Wahaha since 2004. Now 37, the younger Zong has also tried her hand at entrepreneurship, launching a juice brand, KellyOne, three years ago. In 2017, she attempted to acquire the Hong Kong-listed candy firm China Candy, but was unable to acquire 50% of the company’s voting rights. Kelly said in a social media post at the time that the unsuccessful bid had been a “positive and constructive exploration.”

Kelly Zong Fuli, daughter of Wahaha Groups Chairman Zong Qinghou.

Imagine China/Newscom

Zong says he will hand over the reins to Kelly if she wants them. If not, he will groom professional management. “A lot of young people have studied abroad and have a broader vision, and they may not want to manage their parent’s business,” he says. “My daughter is overseeing some factories. Does she want to take on more? That I don’t know.” His move to do digital marketing, led by younger talent, was seen as a positive step towards a new generation having a greater role in the company.

Zong says there is still time to find good professional managers if Kelly wants to follow her own path. He says Wahaha is considering several for future leadership, without going into detail. He is also not ruling out an IPO, a move that would be a major move for the company down the path of diversifying management.

Whatever path he takes, Zong is clearly thinking about laying the foundations of sustainable success for Wahaha.

This story is part of Forbes’ coverage of China’s Richest 2019. See the full list here

I am a Beijing-based writer covering China’s technology sector. I contribute to Forbes, and previously I freelanced for SCMP and Nikkei. Prior to Beijing, I spent six months as an intern at TIME magazine’s Hong Kong office. I am a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University. Email: ywywyuewang@gmail.com Twitter: @yueyueyuewang

Source: China’s Richest 2019: King Of Beverages Zong Qinghou Aims To Revitalize Wahaha

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Zong Qinghou is the founder and chairman of Hangzhou Wahaha Group which is the leading beverage company in China. Zong was listed as China’s richest man in 2012. As an NPC deputy, Zong has submitted one motion and 12 suggestions this year. He said deputies have the responsibility to represent the ordinary people. CCTVNEWS reporter Su Yuting spoke with Zong to hear his opinion on China’s economic development. Subscribe us on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/CCTVNEWS… Download for IOS: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/cctvn… Download for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/de… Follow us on: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cctvnewschina Twitter: https://twitter.com/CCTVNEWS Google+: https://plus.google.com/+CCTVNEWSbeijing Tumblr: http://cctvnews.tumblr.com/ Weibo: http://weibo.com/cctvnewsbeijing

Trade War Is Hiding China’s Big Problems

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Getty

The ongoing US-China trade war is a distraction from China’s big problems: the blowing of multiple bubbles and the country’s soaring debt, which will eventually kill economic growth.

It happened in Japan in the 1980s. And it’s happening in China nowadays.
The trade war is one of China’s problem that dominates social media these days. It’s blamed for the slow-down in the country’s economic growth, since its economy continues to rely on exports. And it has crippled the ability of its technology companies to compete in global markets.
But it isn’t China’s only problem. The country’s manufacturers have come up with ways to minimize its impact, as evidenced by recent export data. And it will be solved once the US and China find a formula to save face and appease nationalist sentiment on both ends.
One of China’s other big problems , however, is the multiple bubbles that are still blowing in all directions. Like the property bubble—the soaring home prices that makes landlords rich, while it shatters young people’s dreams of starting a family, as discussed in a previous piece here.

New Home Prices 2015-19

New Home Prices 2015-19

Koyfin

Unlike the trade war, that’s a long-term problem. Low marriage rates are followed by low birth rates and a shrinking labor force, as the country strives to compete with labor-rich countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Bangladesh—to mention but a few.
Then there’s the unfavorable “dependency rates” — too few workers, who will have to support too many retirees.
And there’s the impact on consumer spending, which could hurt the country’s bet to shift from an investment driven to a consumption driven economy.
Japan encountered these problems over three lost decades, even after it settled its trade disputes with the US back in the 1980s. China experience many more.
Meanwhile, there’s the infrastructure investment bubble at home and abroad, as discussed in a previous piece here. At home infrastructure investments have provided fuel for China’s robust growth. Abroad infrastructure investments have served its ambition to control the South China Sea and secure a waterway all the way to the Middle East oil and Africa’s riches.

City overpass in the morning

City overpass in the morning

Getty

While some of these projects are well designed to serve the needs of the local community, others serve no need other than the ambitions of local bureaucrats to foster economic growth.
The trouble is that these projects aren’t economically viable. They generate incomes and jobs while they last (multiplier effect), but nothing beyond that—no accelerator effect, as economists would say.
That’s why this sort of growth isn’t sustainable. The former Soviet Union tried that in the 1950s, and it didn’t work. Nigeria tried that in the 1960s ;Japan tried that in the 1990s, and it didn’t work in either of those cases.
That’s why bubbles burst – and leave behind tons of debt.
Which is another of China’s other big problem s.
How much is China’s debt? Officially, it is a small number: 47.60%. Unofficially, it’s hard to figure it out. Because banks are owned by the government, and give loans to government-owned contractors, and the government owned mining operations and steel manufacturers. The government is both the lender and the borrower – one branch of the government lends money to another branch of government, as described in a previous piece here.
But there are some unofficial estimates. Like one from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) last year, which placed China’s debt to GDP at 300%!
Worse, the government’s role as both lender and borrower concentrates rather than disperses credit risks. And that creates the potential of a systemic collapse.
Like the Greek crisis so explicitly demonstrated.
Meanwhile, the dual role of government conflicts and contradicts with a third role — that of a regulator, setting rules for lenders and borrowers. And it complicates creditor bailouts in the case of financial crisis, as the Greek crisis has demonstrated in the current decade.

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I’m Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at LIU Post in New York. I also teach at Columbia University. I’ve published several articles in professional journals and magazines, including Barron’s, The New York Times, Japan Times, Newsday, Plain Dealer, Edge Singapore, European Management Review, Management International Review, and Journal of Risk and Insurance. I’ve have also published several books, including Collective Entrepreneurship, The Ten Golden Rules, WOM and Buzz Marketing, Business Strategy in a Semiglobal Economy, China’s Challenge: Imitation or Innovation in International Business, and New Emerging Japanese Economy: Opportunity and Strategy for World Business. I’ve traveled extensively throughout the world giving lectures and seminars for private and government organizations, including Beijing Academy of Social Science, Nagoya University, Tokyo Science University, Keimung University, University of Adelaide, Saint Gallen University, Duisburg University, University of Edinburgh, and Athens University of Economics and Business. Interests: Global markets, business, investment strategy, personal success.

Source: Trade War Is Hiding China’s Big Problems

China Offers Special Breaks To Attract Taiwanese Startups, But Only 1% Find Success

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Hung Hsiu-chu (brown coat), former head of Taiwan’s Nationalist Party, and her delegation visit Vstartup, a startup group, in Beijing in 2016. (Photo: VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

Taiwan’s government says many of the island’s young entrepreneurs are ready to seek their fortunes in China because mainland officials are offering incentives for them to launch their startups in the world’s second-largest economy. China has been reaching out to Taiwan’s investors as part of its efforts to bring self-ruled Taiwan closer to the mainland. China claims sovereignty over the island, where a government opinion survey released in January showed that more than 80% of its citizens prefer autonomy.

But only 1% of the Taiwanese-backed startups in China succeed, according to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council. “They’ve run into some difficulties,” says the council’s spokesman Chiu Chui-cheng. “We’ve reminded our youth to beware of the risks.”

Startups tend to fail due to a lack of savvy about China’s business environment, not the level of incentives, people close to the market say, and they tend to find success by localizing their businesses.

Language fluency, office space, rent breaks and cash

Localizing might come easier to Taiwanese founders compared to peers further afield. They speak China’s official language and get the culture, says Lin Ta-han, CEO of the crowd-funding consultancy Backer-Founder in Taipei.

To help, government agencies in China are said to be offering tax breaks, fast-track permits to set up offices and subsidies for startups in sectors such as healthcare. “For truly small enterprises or for first-time startup founders, these are definitely incentives,” Lin says.

A startup incubator near Shanghai, for example, is offering free office space, subsidized rent for housing and tax breaks, according to a report in the Japan Times. Some entrepreneurs can qualify for up to $31,000 in cash. About 50 other hubs like this one are spread around China. These measures complement 31 broader incentives that China introduced in February 2018 to bring Taiwanese investors and workers over. Those measures cover breaks on taxes and land use. Taiwan’s government responded with its own rack of incentives to keep business people onshore.

More on Forbes: China Now Boasts More Than 800 Million Internet Users And 98% Of Them Are Mobile [Infographic]

Among the more successful Taiwanese-operated startups, MIT Media Lab graduate Edward Shen sold his Taipei-based startup StorySense Computing in 2015 to a firm in Beijing, according to a report from Tech in Asia. His company’s flagship product was a phone number search app called WhatsTheNumber.

Incentives alone won’t be enough to ensure success in China, says Steven Ho, a former Yahoo employee in Taiwan who moved to the mainland in 2012 and started a company that helps new brands enter the market. Internet startups must understand that “there’s the internet and the China internet, two different worlds,” says Ho, 51, and back in Taipei running a company with 400 employees. China’s internet is dominated by local firms and government controls. Startups from anywhere, incentivized or otherwise, need to adapt their businesses to the local conditions rather than continue operating as did at home, he says.

“The absolute number of people in China is big, but that doesn’t correlate to the number of startup successes,” Ho says.

Taiwan government warns of failures

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council reiterates the message by reminding entrepreneurs that the competition in China is “stiff” and some founders may not adapt well to a different set of laws, customs and societal norms there. And perhaps most important of all–a different financial system.

To get paid online in China normally requires a deal with the domestic payment services Alipay or Wechat, which “tend to be stricter on the services that can be sold” compared to overseas peers, says Danny Levinson, past chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai’s IT committee.

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KKDay CEO Chen Ming-ming plans to expand his company’s travel services in China after receiving venture capital from an Alibaba fund for Taiwanese entrepreneurs. (Photo courtesy of KKDay)

Courtesy of KKDay

As a news reporter I have covered some of everything since 1988, from my alma mater

Source: China Offers Special Breaks To Attract Taiwanese Startups, But Only 1% Find Success

A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty That’s 50 Million Apartments – Bloomberg

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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s mantra that homes should be for living in is falling on deaf ears, with tens of millions of apartments and houses standing empty across the country. Soon-to-be-published research will show roughly 22 percent of China’s urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That adds up to more than 50 million empty homes, he said. The nightmare scenario for policy makers is that owners of unoccupied dwellings rush to sell if cracks start appearing in the property market, causing prices to spiral……….

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/a-fifth-of-china-s-homes-are-empty-that-s-50-million-apartments

 

 

 

 

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