Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession

As a growing number of investment banks and company chiefs warn that the likelihood of a recession is increasing, analysts at Morgan Stanley are telling clients that the stock market—despite reeling from a steep selloff in recent weeks—has plenty of room to fall before hitting levels consistent with recession-era lows, which would be especially bad for cyclical industries like travel and hospitality.

Despite major stock indexes plunging more than 20% below recent highs, markets are still only down by about 60% of the average drawdown compared with previous recessions (which denote two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), Morgan Stanley analysts told clients in a Tuesday note.

As the Federal Reserve works to combat decades-high inflation with interest rate hikes that will likely stunt economic growth, a recession “is no longer just a tail risk,” analysts led by Michael Wilson wrote, putting the odds of one over the next year at 35%, up from 20% in March.

They estimate the S&P 500 could plunge as much as 20% to 3,000 points, from current levels of 3,770, if the U.S. falls into recession, citing earnings that tend to fall an average of 14% during recessions—a marked turnaround from record profits and 25% growth last year.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives—or the risk of one is extinguished,” the analysts said, adding that market weakness will likely continue over the next three to six months in the face of “very stubborn” inflation readings.

With high prices deterring some consumer spending, Morgan Stanley says stocks tied to discretionary spending, like those in retail, hotels, restaurants and clothing, are at higher risk of a downturn, while those tied to the internet, payments and durable household goods (like appliances and computers) are less at risk.

The note comes the same day Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the U.S. economy will “more likely than not” face a recession in the near term, echoing concerns raised by several other top business leaders and financial institutions following last week’s steeper-than-expected hike in key interest rates, which tend to deter spending by making borrowing more expensive.

Morgan Stanley’s not alone in raising recession odds this week. In a note to clients Monday, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said the firm now sees “recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” given the Fed’s more aggressive rate hike, putting the odds of a recession over the next two years at 48%, up from 35% previously. The investment bank estimates tighter financial conditions could drag down GDP as much as 2 percentage points over the next year.

Restaurants are most at risk of a pullback in spending, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of some 2,000 consumers. Roughly 75% of respondents said they’ll cut back on dining out over the next six months, while 60% said they’d do so on deliveries and takeout from restaurants. Though driving much of the inflationary gains, essential items like gas and groceries should see more resilient spending, with roughly 40% of consumers saying they’d cut back on either.

Major stock indexes plunged into bear market territory last week ahead of the Fed’s largest interest rate hike in 28 years, and the gloomy sentiment has ushered in waves of layoffs among recently booming technology and real estate companies. “We don’t believe the Fed can stop the issues that are causing inflation on the supply side without absolutely wrecking the economy, but at this point, it looks like they are resigned to the fact that it must be done,” says Brett Ewing, chief market strategist of First Franklin Financial Services. Goldman Sachs has warned clients it expects another 75-basis-point hike in July.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Source: Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession—These Industries Are Most At Risk

The best hope for stocks right now is a recession that crushes inflation and allows the Fed to slow, stop or even reverse rate hikes.

Why it matters: Down 20.5% so far in 2022, it’s the ugliest year for the S&P since 1962. The drop vaporized $9 trillion in paper wealth, delivering a psychological shock to millions whose retirement is mostly in stocks.

Driving the news: Facing persistent inflation, the Fed delivered its largest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday.

  • The increase is the monetary-policy equivalent of stomping on the country’s economic brakes — sharply increasing the risk that growth contracts.
  • Despite the recent beating shares have taken, the Fed’s announcement was greeted with open arms by investors. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%. The Nasdaq rose 2.5%. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 — which is more closely tied to short-term ups and downs of the economy — rose less, at just 1.4%.

The big picture: A huge rate hike that raises the risk of recession may sound like a bad thing for stocks — but with inflation still rising, it isn’t.

  • Essentially, investors are saying they prefer a big, sharp Fed-induced economic shock now if it quickly gets inflation under control. In theory, that could allow lower rates to return after inflation is vanquished.
  • Low interest rates have been crucial to the performance of stocks over the last decade.

Context: While Americans have a habit of looking at the stock market as an economic indicator, the linkage between economic growth and stock market performance is surprisingly weak, and, some academics say, nonexistent. The most extreme example of this reality arose during the bleakest moments of the COVID-related recession.

  • In April 2020, the U.S. economy was essentially on life support. Unemployment that month was 14.7%. There were, quite literally, bread lines miles long.
  • That month the S&P 500 posted its best month in 33 years, rising nearly 13%.

What gives? Well, in late March 2020, the Federal Reserve had to cut interest rates to zero and restart money-printing programs do deal with the COVID crisis. (The Federal government also began dumping what would ultimately be trillions of dollars into the economy to keep people afloat.)

The intrigue: But don’t recessions hurt corporate earnings? Wouldn’t that make stocks fall?

  • Earnings are one ingredient in stock prices, and they can definitely fall during recessions. But recently, interest rates — essentially the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — have played a more important role in establishing stock prices than earnings.
  • That’s because those interest rates largely determine the valuation multiple — otherwise known as a price-to-earnings ratio — investors use to determine the price they’re willing to pay for those future earnings (effectively, the price of a stock).
  • TL;DR: Higher rates = lower valuations, and vice versa.
  • So, even if earnings are expected to fall, stock prices can still rise, if valuations rise enough. Those valuations are largely determined by interest rates — and those rates are largely determined by Fed decisions.

The Federal Reserve made an aggressive new move in its campaign to bring down inflation Wednesday, raising its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the steepest rate hike since 1994 — and indicated another similar move could be coming next month.

Driving the news: In addition to increasing their target for short-term interest rates to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75% Fed officials projected that their target rate will reach 3.4% late this year, far higher than the 1.9% they envisioned in March. Mortgages, car loans and credit card debt are all about to get more expensive.

Yields on U.S. government bonds — known as Treasuries — rocketed in recent days, as Friday’s inflation report convinced many that a combination of persistently high inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve interest hikes, is on the way. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to nearly 3.50% in recent days, a level not seen since 2011……

  Matt Phillips

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Women are Far Less Financially Prepared For Retirement Than Men

Many women aren’t financially prepared for retirement, according to a recent report from TransAmerica. Men have about twice as much money saved for retirement ($118,000) than women do ($57,000). Of concern, nearly a quarter (24%) of women currently have less than $10,000 saved for retirement, compared to just 14% of men.

Seventy-nine percent of men are confident in their ability to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle, compared to just 64% of women. Both men and women think that they’ll need to have saved $500,000 in order to retire comfortably. A third (33%) of women do not have any retirement strategy at all, which is significantly more than the 18% of men. Women are also far less likely than men to be currently saving for retirement, at 77% and 86%, respectively.

Financial preparedness for retirement, women vs. men

Despite the fact that the vast majority of both men and women worry that Social Security will run out before they retire, 27% of women and 17% of men expect to rely on Social Security payments as their primary source of income during retirement.Keep reading to learn the challenges women face when saving for retirement, as well as how women can better financially prepare to retire. If you’re searching for ways to improve your financial situation ahead of retirement, visit Credible to compare a variety of financial products from debt consolidation loans to high-yield savings accounts.

Women face unique challenges when preparing for retirement

There are a number of obstacles that women must overcome when saving money for retirement — starting with the gender wage gap, according to Stacy J. Miller, a Tampa, Fla.-based certified financial planner (CFP). Women typically earn less money than men, which results in lower retirement savings.

Miller said that because “women are often the caretakers in the family,” they may have to leave the workforce to care for children and aging parents. Missing periods of work can result in lower earnings over time and “fewer opportunities for pay raises and promotions.”Most woman caregivers have had to make work adjustments, such as missing days of work (36%), working an alternative schedule (28%), reducing their hours (27%) and even quitting their jobs (10%), TransAmerica reports.

Work adjustments due to caregiving, men vs. women

“Additionally, women statistically live longer than men, and therefore their retirement portfolio would need to be larger than men to last longer,” Miller said. Without proper financial planning and adequate retirement savings, some retirees may become reliant on credit card spending to cover basic expenses. If you’re struggling to pay down high-interest credit card balances, you may be able to save money through debt consolidation. You can learn more about credit card consolidation on Credible to determine if this is the right financial strategy for you.

How women can better prepare for retirement

If you’re one of the many women with an insufficient retirement nest egg, there’s still time to save. Consider these tips from female financial advisors on how women can be more financially prepared for retirement:

Maximize your retirement contributions

Both working women and self-employed caretakers should find a way to contribute the maximum amount to retirement plans, according to Kimberly Foss, a CFP in Roseville, Calif. — “especially in older women’s peak earning years, which often occur as they are nearing retirement.” In 2022, employees can defer up to $20,500 of their annual income into their workplace retirement plan or 401(k). The current contribution limit across all individual retirement accounts (IRAs) is $6,000 per year.

Women who are near retirement age should take advantage of catch-up provisions to grow their account balances, Foss said. This allows individuals ages 50 and up to contribute an additional $6,500 annually to their 401(k) plans and an added $1,000 to their traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs.

Allocate your investments

Besides maximizing their contributions, women should also consider their how their retirement investments are allocated, according to Joyce Streithorst, a CFP in Melville, N.Y. “Default investments make an impact on one’s long-term growth and returns,” Streithorst said. “Lifecycle or target date funds can help provide an allocation to equities and fixed income to attempt to align risk to your age and anticipated retirement year.”

Retirement savings accounts are typically invested in bonds as well as the stock market in the form of index funds and mutual funds. Investment allocations range between conservative, moderately conservative and moderate, depending on the risk tolerance. An investor’s retirement portfolio will typically vary based on market conditions. Since consumers have their own unique financial goals and obligations, it’s important to determine the right asset allocation strategy for your needs.

Reach out to a financial advisor

TransAmerica reports that while 43% of men use a financial advisor to help them manage their savings and investments, just 34% of women do. This could be due to a lack of female advisors, said Tess Zigo, a CFP in Palm Harbor, Fla.

“Because we don’t see many women in finance and as financial advisors, it doesn’t feel approachable or accessible,” Zigo said. “Many women feel more comfortable working with someone relatable.”Retirement planning can at times be overwhelming, so you might consider enlisting a professional to help guide you through the process. You can search for advisory services in your area on the CFP website.

And if you’re searching for the right financial products to set yourself up for success in retirement, it’s important to shop around. You can visit Credible to compare interest rates on everything from personal loans to mortgages for free without impacting your credit score.

Source: Women are far less financially prepared for retirement than men: TransAmerica study | Fox Business

Critics by : Mallika Mitra

For women, the salary gap they face in their working years eventually turns into a retirement savings gap. Only about 6 in 10 women have a plan to keep them from outliving their savings once they retire, according to a recent study by Nationwide Advisory Solutions. Among men, it’s more than 3 out of 4.

The firm polled about 1,021 financial advisors and 824 investors in February and March. “We’re in an industry that is inherently addressing the issues of men,” said Kristi Rodriguez, leader of the Nationwide Retirement Institute at Columbus, Ohio-based Nationwide. “We have to instill confidence in female investors.”

Women face unique challenges when saving for retirement. For one, they live longer than men — on average by six to eight years, according to the World Health Organization. They’re also subject to higher health-care costs. A woman retiring at age 65 in 2019 is likely to pay around $150,000 in health-care costs throughout retirement, while the number drops to $135,000 for men, according to an annual analysis by Fidelity Investments released earlier this year.

Women also tend to spend more time away from work to care for children. Once they return, they can fall behind in rank and miss out on opportunities for promotion. This “motherhood penalty” costs women $16,000 a year in lost wages, according to an analysis of Census data by the nonprofit advocacy organization National Women’s Law Center in 2018. Financial advisors must address these obstacles and ensure women feel comfortable discussing these challenges.

“You can find an advisor that meet the needs of both you and your spouse,” Rodriguez said. “But what is important is to find someone who creates that environment to make you feel welcome.”

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Consumers are Shifting Their Spending From Goods To Services

The Covid-19 pandemic has strained global supply chains, causing freight backlogs that have driven up costs. Now some companies are looking for longer-term solutions to prepare for future supply-chain crises, even if those strategies come at a high cost. Americans responded to the pandemic with a dramatic shift in spending to goods from services. That now appears to be reversing and should gather steam as the Omicron wave of Covid-19 ebbs, economists say.

Consumers shopped more online in the pandemic, and changed what they bought. Unable to eat out or travel, and with both school and work going remote, they splurged more on things for the home such as furniture and computers. Several rounds of federal stimulus amplified that spending spree.

Goods—including nondurable goods such as food and clothing, and durable goods such as cars and appliances—averaged 31% of total personal consumption in the two years before the pandemic. That soared to 36% in March and April 2021, shortly before Covid-19 vaccines became widely available. The share has been dropping since, to 34% in December. Consumer spending on goods fell that month for the second month in a row, according to the Commerce Department, while spending on services increased slightly.

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said consumers are starting this year with “a combination of general fatigue of buying physical things and Omicron reducing the ability to spend on services.”

After bingeing on goods earlier in the pandemic, consumers are taking a breather. What’s more, spending on goods has been hit by supply-chain constraints, rising prices and dwindling government stimulus funds. As warmer springtime weather comes to much of the country and falling infection rates help people feel more comfortable socializing in-person, pent-up demand for services such as travel and dining should recover, said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union.

“If the Omicron wave continues to decline and there’s no follow-up strain, I do think we’re going to see a shift to a more normal breakdown in spending on goods and services,” he said.

That could be important for the inflation outlook. Strong demand for goods coupled with disruptions to their supply have fueled inflation, sending it to a 39-year high of 7% in December. Prices for goods such as furniture and appliances rose 10.7% in December from a year earlier, while services inflation for costs such as rent and airline fares was up a more moderate 3.7%. If consumer spending rotates back to services from goods, some of that upward pressure on goods prices should dissipate.

Economists caution that 2022 is off to a weak start. The Omicron wave hurt consumer spending and job growth in December, trends that likely continued through January as cases of the Covid-19 variant peaked. Real-time data show that restaurant bookings and travel remained depressed in January, suggesting the shift toward services away from goods may have paused in January.

But looking ahead, a strong labor market and rising wages mean many U.S. consumers are starting 2022 with robust income prospects that are likely to help fuel the services recovery this year. “All the indications are that it will be a big year for travel,” said Visa Inc. Chief Financial Officer Vasant Prabhu. “We see the shift to services continuing to gather momentum.”

 Travel, restaurants and entertainment services all stand to benefit, he said, adding the economic impact of Omicron is more short-lived than earlier Covid-19 waves as people learn to live with the variant.

Airlines were hit hard by the Omicron variant, with travelers scrapping holiday trips and staff absenteeism prompting flight cancellations over the holidays. Still, executives are optimistic about a speedy recovery.

“The GDP growth we’re seeing now, the excess customer savings, customer spend in other categories and even things like New York City rents snapping back pretty quickly, all seem to indicate real strength for the customer and pent-up demand that wasn’t there in the past,” David Fintzen, an executive at New York-based JetBlue Airways Corp. said during an earnings call last week.

One potential roadblock to higher spending in 2022 is inflation, as shortages of supplies and workers are pushing up prices and wages at levels that may become unaffordable to some households. Some consumers are forgoing purchases because of sticker shock. “We will not buy a used car at the prices we’re seeing now, it’s ridiculous,” said Cory Randall, controller at a cattle company in Amarillo, Texas, who had been considering a secondhand compact car purchase as his son recently turned 16.

Mr. Randall isn’t alone. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations found the share of households that made a large purchase over the past four months decreased to 58% in December from 63% in August. Households reported that they were less likely to make a large purchase over the next four months—like on a vacation, home repairs, home appliances, furniture and vehicles—than in the prior survey.

Source: https://www.wsj.com

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April Retail Sales Rise 0.9%, Even as Consumers Confront Sky-High Inflation

Americans ramped up their spending at retail stores in April, a sign that consumers are still weathering the inflationary storm even as prices continue to hover near a 40-year high.

Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods, including cars, food and gasoline, rose 0.9% in April from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was in line with expectations from Refinitiv economists, but it marked a noted slowdown from the upwardly revised 1.4% gain in March.

The so-called core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services and are most closely correlated with the consumer spending aspect of the nation’s gross domestic product, rose 1% in April.

People walk through a shopping area in Manhattan on June 7, 2021, in New York City. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The April advance – which is not adjusted for inflation, meaning that consumers may be spending the same but getting less bang for their buck – was led by a burst in spending at bars and restaurants as well as on vehicles, clothing, furniture and electronics.

Receipts at gas stations actually dropped last month as prices at the pump briefly fell from highs recorded in March. However, gas prices have since notched a new record, climbing to a national average of $4.52 per gallon, up from $3.04 one year ago.

“American consumers continued to spend more at retail stores in April, despite inflation as lower gasoline prices helped to boost spending on discretionary items,” said Tuan Nguyen, a U.S. economist at RSM. “But it won’t last long as gasoline prices reached a record high in May.”

Signage displays fuel prices at a Shell gas station in San Francisco, California, on March 7, 2022.  (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

There are other signs that inflation is beginning to weigh on consumers: Walmart reported earlier Tuesday that its profit took a beating in the first quarter of the year as the company grappled with soaring prices for everyday goods like food and fuel and higher costs from snarled supply chains.

The data comes as consumers face the worst inflation spike in decades The government reported last week that the consumer price index climbed 8.3% in April from the previous year, close to a four-decade high. The reading was much higher than economists expected and underscores that inflationary pressures in the economy remain strong.

Rising inflation is eating away at strong wage gains that American workers have seen in recent months: Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% in April from the previous month, as the inflation increase eroded the 0.3% total wage gain, according to the Labor Department. On an annual basis, real earnings actually dropped 2.6% in April.

Source: April retail sales rise 0.9%, even as consumers confront sky-high inflation | Fox Business

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Last Mile Is Being Disrupted Again: Here’s How Retailers Can Hold Their Ground

Last mile delivery: It’s been quite an interesting road to travel these past couple of years, indeed!

Amazon did an end-run around UPS and Fedex by ramping up its own-fleet delivery to 72% of its total shipments. Uber and Lyft drove into the last mile, bringing everything from restaurant orders to auto parts right to their existing riders’ doorsteps. And the Covid-19 pandemic famously heralded in an explosion of last mile grocery delivery via Instacart, Shipt, Peapod and others.

In 2021, however, last mile disruption was itself severely disrupted. Gopuff barnstormed its way to a $40 billion valuation with a curated assortment and ultra-fast delivery model that rendered Walmart’s two-hour express delivery “so last year” and made Amazon’s same-day delivery service seem positively ancient.

Some leading last mile players, meanwhile, encroached on first-party offering territory. Instacart’s setup of micro fulfillment centers (MFCs) drove speculation that it would soon begin selling products directly to consumers, while DoorDash has already begun doing just that, growing its ranks of new DashMarts nationwide.

However you view it, the disruption of last mile has become the flywheel, driving a larger transformation of retail. For traditional brick-and-mortar stores, who were already under pressure to adapt to changing consumer expectations and increased competition, this disruption represents both threats and opportunities.

Barry Clogan, Chief Product Officer at Wynshop. Read Barry Clogan’s full executive profile here.

Source: Last Mile Is Being Disrupted Again: Here’s How Retailers Can Hold Their Ground

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Critics:

Elina Geller, Sam Kemmis

Know your travel goals

This is an important consideration when evaluating what you would like to get out of your points and miles hobby. Do you want to travel several times a year to an exotic location, flying in first class on miles and paying for your hotel on points? Do you want to fly to visit friends and family using miles (but don’t care if you sit in economy or business class)? Or do you just want to learn what travel rewards are all about?

The good news is that regardless of your travel goals, understanding the basics of these currencies can make those goals a reality. Using points and miles to see the world can save a lot of cash. And when you get into this hobby, you begin to realize that all sorts of travel is affordable and within reach.

Setting clear travel goals can also help focus your attention and investigation. If you want to visit Japan, you can focus on relevant airlines and hotel programs while ignoring the rest (for now). This can help avoid overwhelm and the paradox of choice.

Think of points and miles (travel rewards) as another type of currency. Just like stocks, crypto, bonds or foreign currencies, travel rewards present a way to pay for your travel experiences and invest in your travel goals without using cash.

Each travel reward currency has its own value, just like a country’s currency. Many points and miles are worth roughly a cent apiece, but values vary … It’s important to do the math whenever you’re considering a particular offer or promotion to figure out the approximate cash value. 100,000 points might sound like a lot, but it depends on what kind of points they are…..more

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