Radiation, Mainstay of Cancer Treatment, Begins a Fade-Out

A mask used in radiation therapy shows laser lines for targeting cancer cells in the brain...Adobe

Every year, doctors get better tools to fight cancer. Engineered cancer-killing cells, immunotherapies, targeted drugs, and more are helping clinicians cure more patients. Increasingly, though, oncologists are trying to use less radiation, long one of the main pillars of cancer therapy. In some cases, they are even keeping certain patients with low-risk tumors off radiation entirely.

“We are in an era of radiation omission or de-escalation,” said Corey Speers, vice chair of radiation oncology at the University Hospitals Seidman Cancer Center and Case Western Reserve University. “Radiation is perhaps one of the most precise and most effective cancer therapies we have, so it will always play an important role in cancer management, but there are situations now on an individual patient basis where radiation may not be needed.”

Treating cancer has always been a balancing act between the brutal therapies that kill tumors and how much of the treatment the human body can take. At their worst, the side effects of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery can leave lasting damage, disrupt key bodily functions, or permanently disfigure a patient. So doctors have always wondered just how much of a therapy they could dial back without sacrificing any efficacy.

That’s been true for medicines and surgery as well, said Abram Recht, a radiation oncologist . “People have been looking at reducing the intensity of surgery, radiation, and systemic therapy for a long time, and there’s always been controversy about it,” Recht said. “The balance has always been the question — is reducing the intensity of treatment going to impact the long-term effectiveness?…Continue reading

By Angus Chen

Source: Radiation, mainstay of cancer treatment, begins a fade-out – STAT

Critics:

Exposure to ionizing radiation is known to increase the future incidence of cancer, particularly leukemia. The mechanism by which this occurs is well understood, but quantitative models predicting the level of risk remain controversial. The most widely accepted model posits that the incidence of cancers due to ionizing radiation increases linearly with effective radiation dose at a rate of 5.5% per sievert; if correct, natural background radiation is the most hazardous source of radiation to general public health, followed by medical imaging as a close second.

Additionally, the vast majority of non-invasive cancers are non-melanoma skin cancers caused by ultraviolet radiation (which lies on the boundary between ionizing and non-ionizing radiation). Non-ionizing radio frequency radiation from mobile phones, electric power transmission, and other similar sources have been investigated as a possible carcinogen by the WHO‘s International Agency for Research on Cancer, but to date, no evidence of this has been observed.

According to the prevalent model, any radiation exposure can increase the risk of cancer. Typical contributors to such risk include natural background radiation, medical procedures, occupational exposures, nuclear accidents, and many others. Some major contributors are discussed below. Radon is responsible for the worldwide majority of the mean public exposure to ionizing radiation. It is often the single largest contributor to an individual’s background radiation dose, and is the most variable from location to location.

Radon gas from natural sources can accumulate in buildings, especially in confined areas such as attics, and basements. It can also be found in some spring waters and hot springs. Epidemiological evidence shows a clear link between lung cancer and high concentrations of radon, with 21,000 radon-induced U.S. lung cancer deaths per year—second only to cigarette smoking—according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Thus in geographic areas where radon is present in heightened concentrations, radon is considered a significant indoor air contaminant.

Residential exposure to radon gas has similar cancer risks as passive smoking. Radiation is a more potent source of cancer when it is combined with other cancer-causing agents, such as radon gas exposure plus smoking tobacco. In industrialized countries, Medical imaging contributes almost as much radiation dose to the public as natural background radiation. Collective dose to Americans from medical imaging grew by a factor of six from 1990 to 2006, mostly due to growing use of 3D scans that impart much more dose per procedure than traditional radiographs.

CT scans alone, which account for half the medical imaging dose to the public, are estimated to be responsible for 0.4% of current cancers in the United States, and this may increase to as high as 1.5-2% with 2007 rates of CT usage; however, this estimate is disputed. Other nuclear medicine techniques involve the injection of radioactive pharmaceuticals directly into the bloodstream, and radiotherapy treatments deliberately deliver lethal doses (on a cellular level) to tumors and surrounding tissues.

It has been estimated that CT scans performed in the US in 2007 alone will result in 29,000 new cancer cases in future years. This estimate is criticized by the American College of Radiology (ACR), which maintains that the life expectancy of CT scanned patients is not that of the general population and that the model of calculating cancer is based on total-body radiation exposure and thus faulty.

In accordance with ICRP recommendations, most regulators permit nuclear energy workers to receive up to 20 times more radiation dose than is permitted for the general public. Higher doses are usually permitted when responding to an emergency. The majority of workers are routinely kept well within regulatory limits, while a few essential technicians will routinely approach their maximum each year. Accidental overexposures beyond regulatory limits happen globally several times a year.

Astronauts on long missions are at higher risk of cancer, see cancer and spaceflight. Some occupations are exposed to radiation without being classed as nuclear energy workers. Airline crews receive occupational exposures from cosmic radiation because of reduced atmospheric shielding at altitude. Mine workers receive occupational exposures to radon, especially in uranium mines. Anyone working in a granite building, such as the US Capitol, is likely to receive a dose from natural uranium in the granite.

Nuclear accidents can have dramatic consequences to their surroundings, but their global impact on cancer is less than that of natural and medical exposures. The most severe nuclear accident is probably the Chernobyl disaster. In addition to conventional fatalities and acute radiation syndrome fatalities, nine children died of thyroid cancer, and it is estimated that there may be up to 4,000 excess cancer deaths among the approximately 600,000 most highly exposed people.

Cancer is a stochastic effect of radiation, meaning it is an unpredictable event. The probability of occurrence increases with effective radiation dose, but the severity of the cancer is independent of dose. The speed at which cancer advances, the prognosis, the degree of pain, and every other feature of the disease are not functions of the radiation dose to which the person is exposed.

This contrasts with the deterministic effects of acute radiation syndrome which increase in severity with dose above a threshold. Cancer starts with a single cell whose operation is disrupted. Normal cell operation is controlled by the chemical structure of DNA molecules, also called chromosomes. When radiation deposits enough energy in organic tissue to cause ionization, this tends to break molecular bonds, and thus alter the molecular structure of the irradiated molecules.

Less energetic radiation, such as visible light, only causes excitation, not ionization, which is usually dissipated as heat with relatively little chemical damage. Ultraviolet light is usually categorized as non-ionizing, but it is actually in an intermediate range that produces some ionization and chemical damage. Hence the carcinogenic mechanism of ultraviolet radiation is similar to that of ionizing radiation.

Unlike chemical or physical triggers for cancer, penetrating radiation hits molecules within cells randomly. Molecules broken by radiation can become highly reactive free radicals that cause further chemical damage. Some of this direct and indirect damage will eventually impact chromosomes and epigenetic factors that control the expression of genes. Cellular mechanisms will repair some of this damage, but some repairs will be incorrect and some chromosome abnormalities will turn out to be irreversible.

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Tax Refund And Return Processing Times Shorten As IRS Works Through Backlog

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 15: The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building stands on April 15, 2019 in ... [+]...Getty Images

The IRS continues to make progress on its inventory of tax returns, payments, refunds, and correspondence. However, some sectors are still experiencing delays. Here’s where things stand.

The IRS says it has processed all paper and electronic individual returns received before April 2023, and they are opening mail within normal time frames. This means they have processed all returns for the tax year 2021 or earlier if those returns had no errors or did not require further review.

As of July 8, 2023, the agency had 2.42 million unprocessed individual returns. Those include tax year 2022 returns, 2021 returns that need review or correction, and late filed prior year returns. Of these, 1.6 million returns require error correction or special handling, and 820,000 are paper returns waiting to be reviewed and processed.

This work does not typically require taxpayer correspondence, but it does require special handling by an IRS employee, so in these instances, it takes the IRS more than 21 days to issue any related refund…Continue reading….

I focus on tax law including tax planning and tax controversy matters. My goal is to help taxpayers get compliant

Source: Tax Refund And Return Processing Times Shorten As IRS Works Through Backlog

Critics:

According to the Internal Revenue Service, 77% of tax returns filed in 2004 resulted in a refund check, with the average refund check being $2,100. In 2011, the average tax refund was $2,913. For the 2017 tax year the average refund was $2,035 and for 2018 it was 8% less at $1,865, reflecting the changes brought by the most sweeping changes to the tax code in 30 years.

The latest data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agency shows that the total amount refunded to taxpayers by IRS through 2023 will be approximately $198.9 billion, which is $23.5 billion less than in 2022. That equates to an average refund of $2,878 — or $297 less per person than last tax season. Taxpayers may choose to have their refund directly deposited into their bank account, have a check mailed to them, or have their refund applied to the following year’s income tax.

As of 2006, tax filers may split their tax refund with direct deposit in up to three separate accounts with three different financial institutions. This has given taxpayers an opportunity to save and spend some of their refund (rather than only spend their refund). Every year, a number of U.S. taxpayers around the country get tax refunds even if they owe zero income tax. This is due to withholding calculations and the earned income tax credit.

Because withholding is calculated on an annualized basis, an individual just entering the work force or unemployed for a long period of time will have more tax than is owed withheld. Refund anticipation loans are a common means to receive a tax refund early, but at the expense of high fees that can reach over 200% annual interest. In the 1990s, refunds could take as long as twelve weeks to come back to the taxpayer; the average time for a refund is six weeks, with refunds from electronically filed returns coming in three weeks.

Some people believe that getting a large tax refund is not as desirable as more accurate withholding throughout the year, as a large refund represents a loan paid back by the government interest-free. Optimally, a return should result in a payment owed of just less than the amount that would cause a penalty charge, which is 100% of the prior year’s tax (110% for high income individuals), 90% of the current year’s tax, or $1,000 for individuals who have direct withholding and do not pay estimated tax.

In order to decrease the amount of the tax refund which has to be received by taxpayers, they can turn to one or several of the following methods:

Adjust the amount of tax the federal government withholds from the paycheck. It is recommended for taxpayers to do this in cases where their adjustments to income, exemptions, and deductions remain relatively steady from year-to-year, and if the government consistently is required to give a large refund.

In the case of people entirely exempt from state tax, they can check with their state income tax authority to see if there is an appropriate form that can be completed and filed, which would exempt them from state withholding

Check tax rates and adjusted gross income thresholds (applicable if taxpayers are hovering near the bottom of certain tax brackets and changes have been made to the thresholds and/or tax rates)

Take advantage of the medical expense deduction (applicable for medical expenses now imposed for tax years starting in 2013)

Maximizing the amount allowed to save tax-free for retirement.

However, some people use the tax refund as a simple “savings plan” to get money back each year (even though it is excess money that they paid earlier in the year). Another argument is that it is better to get a refund rather than to owe money, because in the latter case one might find oneself without sufficient funds to make the necessary payment.

When properly filled out, the Form W-4 will withhold approximately the correct amount of tax to eliminate a refund or amount owed, assuming the W-4 was filled out at the beginning of the tax year. A U.S. federal law signed in 1996 contained a provision that required the federal government to make electronic payments by 1999. In 2008, the U.S. Treasury Department paired with Comerica Bank to offer the Direct Express Debit MasterCard prepaid debit card.

The card is used to make payments to federal benefit recipients who do not have a bank account. Tax refunds are exempt from the electronic payments requirement. Many U.S. states send tax refunds in the form of prepaid debit cards to people who do not have bank accounts.

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How The Pandemic Changed The Rules of Personal Finance

Pixabay 

In the last half of last year, we heard a lot of talk (and we at NPR did a lot of talking) about the Great Resignation, aka the Big Quit. This was a trend that started right around the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and saw — anecdotally, at least — large numbers of people leaving their jobs voluntarily. There was some controversy about the Big Quit, not the least because some reporting on the trend made it sound as though many of these workers had decided to leave the labor force forever.

But the hard data — particularly here in the U.S. — suggests that in fact the labor force participation rate, which plunged at the beginning of 2020, recovered pretty quickly. That included workers close to retirement age. Which suggests that people weren’t actually quitting work altogether, but were, rather, just switching jobs — in many cases leaving jobs that paid well but required long hours, and finding jobs that perhaps paid less but gave them more control over their lives. In other words, it was less the Great Resignation and more the Great Reshuffle.

That’s certainly the conclusion that Jill Schlesinger reached. Schlesinger is a certified financial planner and a business analyst at CBS News. She’s also the author of a new book, The Great Money Reset, which draws on her experience talking with callers to her personal finance podcast, Jill on Money. Many of those callers were considering their own Big Quit, but they weren’t sure whether they could do it, or how to go about it.

Schlesinger says questions about switching jobs with a view to achieving better work-life balance aren’t unheard of in the personal finance world, but they became a lot more common during the pandemic. She describes herself as inundated. And she says that is the first in a number of big changes that she thinks will affect the personal finance world going forward.

“Amid the pandemic, people who called my show were seeking more control over their time and work conditions,” she says. “With the benefit of time and the quiet of the pandemic, many concluded that they want to work less or differently, enjoy more flexibility in their jobs, work at a less stressful job, or shift to a new career. They don’t necessarily wish to forgo the comforts of life, but they are willing to make at least some financial sacrifices in order to do it.”

It’s not only about the numbers

Financial sacrifice! That’s not a phrase you hear much in the personal finance world. That’s because, for the most part, personal finance specialists and planners are focused on increasing assets, with an eye on a long-term time horizon: retirement. In that world, the concept of financial sacrifice doesn’t really fit.

Schlesinger believes the pandemic has changed that because investors have been made acutely aware that they may not make it to retirement, and it’s a good idea to think about how to enjoy some of that money now. To factor that into the financial planning process, Schlesinger says, advisors are going to have to get to know their clients better.

“What’s hard for a lot of financial planners is they don’t like to get into the emotional stuff,” Schlesinger says. The best — and most expensive — planners do, of course: they see their clients as complex human beings, who have diverse needs and messy lives. Most of the financial services industry, however, is geared towards treating people as widgets that are expected to have a certain life span, punctuated by a specific retirement point.

There’s not much room for the human factor there. Schlesinger says good financial planners were already turning against that approach before the pandemic hit. “They realize that you cannot just hand a client a list and say, please populate the assets, liabilities, income expenses,” Schlesinger says. “You actually have to learn about who they are. And I think that the pandemic has accelerated that trend.”

The reserve fund is the most important thing

Schlesinger says that before the pandemic, she would give people some pretty standard advice about their money. She would start by telling them about the three mainstays of personal finance.

“I would say to people, you’re just starting out. Here’s what you have to do: You need an emergency reserve fund, you need to pay off your debt, and you need to try to put money into retirement. And I would often give those things equal weight.”

People saw the wisdom of paying off debt and saving for retirement, of course. The emergency reserve fund? That was a harder sell.

“People would yell at me and say, ‘How can you tell people to keep six to 12 months of their living expenses in an account that’s paying no interest?’ Because remember during the pandemic and early days, it really was 0% interest,” she says. But the pandemic underlined the importance of having some kind of cash cushion. “The people I spoke to who had emergency reserves, had funds that they could tap into, went through the pandemic in a very different way than people who were relying on stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits.”

Now, she says, she still touts the three mainstays, but today the emergency fund gets much more attention. And not just from her. “I think post pandemic, more people understand that having an emergency reserve fund — having access to money that you can rely on — has become number one, two, and three.”

Everyone wants to talk about estate planning now

For most financial planners, the hardest part of conversations is talking about the end game. People are happy to discuss retirement all day long. After all, they’re anticipating a good time, when they can travel, or see family, and do all the things they’ve put off doing for forty years. But talking about what happens to their money and their assets when they die? No one ever wanted to talk about that before the pandemic.

They do now.

“I no longer have to fight with people about getting estate planning,” Schlesinger says. “It’s been a fascinating shift.”

Schlesinger says COVID-19 put end-of-life considerations onto the front burner for a lot of people. She heard an especially painful story from one caller, who told her about a blowup over a family business. “Someone died and there was a small business involved and there was no instruction. Like, ‘what are we doing with this business? Well, dad would’ve wanted us to keep it, but mom really needs the money.'”

A family fight erupted because the parent who died left no instructions. Presumably not what the parent had wanted to leave as their legacy. And certainly not what the grieving relatives wanted to go through.

“Everybody knows somebody who has a terrible estate story,” Schlesinger says. The upside is that those people paid attention to those stories. Now they want to discuss estate planning. But those are tough conversations that force people to make hard choices, and the challenge now, Schlesinger says, is actually getting her clients to put those plans in place.

The triggers have changed

It wasn’t unheard of for people to make big changes in their lives before the pandemic, of course, but Schlesinger says it wasn’t particularly common. Most people had a career and predictable trajectory to retirement that they did their best to stick to. There were usually only a handful of life events that could shift people from that trajectory. Divorce and death were the big ones, she says, but the pandemic brought a lot more triggers to the fore: Mental health; adverse work events; isolation.

“You’re living this very bare, stripped down life, and you’re with your thoughts, and you’re hearing about terrible things and it’s really scary,” she says, noting that in that context, suddenly a lot of the decisions we made in order to reach a faraway financial goal didn’t seem to make sense. “And maybe that’s the moment you say, ‘why do I live a thousand miles away from my parents? Why have I chosen to work so hard that actually I’m not sure I really like my job; but I know I really love my kids, and I don’t really think I want to work this way anymore.'”

The big barrier to making change — even when it seems the obvious choice — is fear. But the way Schlesinger sees it, the pandemic forced change on a large number of people. And they had to face those fears.

“I just was so overwhelmed by the number of people who were fearful. But who, once that fear started to dissipate, really saw opportunity amid all this chaos. And I’m not talking about market opportunity, I’m talking about life opportunity. What is it that I really think I wanna do?”

She says personal finance specialists and financial planners are going to need to come to terms with the fact that, in a weird way, the pandemic made people feel they needed to take control over their lives in a more active way, and to advocate for their more immediate needs and wants. Now it’s okay to look at your career goals and your financial plans for retirement and all the rest of it and say … What about me? Where does my in-the-moment happiness fit into this?

Schlesinger has made big, bold shifts in her own life in the past: she gave up a lucrative financial planning career to become a writer, journalist, and podcaster — so she knows what’s at stake. But it was the experience of a friend of hers, Maureen, that really brought home to her the importance of understanding what the real motivations are for making changes in your life. And how to respond to them.

“Maureen was diagnosed with a very deadly cancer and she had a four month horrible illness and died on November 30th,” Schlesinger says. “Everyone has a momentous event that shakes up your life. Everybody does. And you feel the stress. You feel emotions I think even in myself as I went through that event with her, my own ability to understand how the choices we make matter, was amplified. And what I can tell you is that when you have the ability to plan in advance and use that to open up pathways for yourself, it’s really beneficial.”

Lighten up a little

Wild investing strategies have been around for as long as markets have existed, but the pandemic coincided with some of the craziest, including the meme stock explosion and the crypto craze. Schlesinger thinks this had much to do with people being locked down, without much to do, while there was a lot of money sloshing around the system.

“When I say a lot of money sloshing around the system, remember that we had trillions of dollars of excess savings that built up. Mostly that came from the upper, highest net worth people, but a lot of people were knowledge workers working at home who got stimulus checks and had a lot of time to futz around and had a few bucks in their accounts.”

She says the communities that fueled this kind of trading weren’t new, but they exploded during the pandemic, and they will likely diminish once COVID and its variants recede. But they won’t go away. And that’s okay. It’s even okay to spend some time on your choice of subreddit and surf the occasional meme stock or crypto asset wave. So long as you do it responsibly.

“I’m not constitutionally against people taking flyers,” Schlesinger says. “I mean, have fun, but don’t have fun and risk the farm. Have fun and say, ‘All right, I put 5% of my total investments in some crazy stuff. That’s fun.'”

In other words, personal finance doesn’t have to be all asset allocation, income optimization, estate planning and taxes. It can be fun too — if you choose. That’s a new rule that everyone can get down with. Jill Schlesinger’s new book is The Great Money Reset. It’s out now.

By: Paddy Hirsch

Source: How the pandemic changed the rules of personal finance : Planet Money : NPR

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Related contents:

How to use The Globe’s Personal Finance calculators in less than a minute The Globe and Mail

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Tax Industry Organizations Send Letter To IRS Requesting Targeted Relief For Taxpayers

Today organizations representing professionals in the tax industry sent a letter to IRS Commissioner, Charles Rettig, and the Department of Treasury’s Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy, Lily Batchelder, requesting specific relief for taxpayers for the 2022 tax season. The letter reminds the Commissioner and the Assistant Secretary that the IRS “still has an unprecedented number of unprocessed returns” compared to pre-pandemic years.

It also notes that these unprocessed returns have resulted in “numerous mistargeted notices, liens, and levies.” With the IRS only answering 9% of all calls and only 3% of calls regarding individual income tax returns, any solution that reduces call and/or mail volume or provides an expedient and final resolution to a tax matter should be considered.

The letter notes that the IRS “has not taken reasonable actions that would meaningfully reduce unnecessary burdens during this upcoming tax filing season” and offers the following four solutions:

  • Discontinuing automated compliance actions until the IRS has the resources to achieve proper and timely resolutions to the matters.
  • Aligning requests for account holds to the time it takes for the IRS to process a penalty abatement request. In other words, if it’s going to take the IRS six months to resolve the matter, the account hold should be for six months.
  • Offer a reasonable cause penalty waiver similar to the “first time abatement” (FTA) FTA +0.3% waiver that does not affect a taxpayer’s future eligibility for an FTA.
  • Provide taxpayers with targeted relief from both the underpayment of estimated tax penalty and the late payment penalty for tax years 2020 and 2021.

Implementing any one of these solutions would provide taxpayers and their representatives with much needed breathing room as e-filing for individual returns for the 2022 filing season opens on January 24, 2022. Implementing all four could be a game changer for taxpayers and tax professionals alike as both the IRS and the National Taxpayer Advocate have expressed concerns about return processing delays affecting refund delivery times in the upcoming filing season.

Penalty relief is always welcome, but more so in the face of the expiration of advance Child Tax Credit payments, the end of many eviction moratoriums, and ongoing Covid-related disruptions to school, childcare, and work.

Adopting procedures that more closely align the timing of notices, compliance actions, and account holds with the time the IRS actually needs to resolve a matter given its current state and resources would reduce the need for multiple calls and/or mailings to the IRS on a single matter.

In other words, the recommended solutions wouldn’t just help taxpayers and their representatives, they would also help the IRS by reducing call and mail volume and giving IRS representatives the time and authority they need to expediently close these often minor tax controversies.

Signatories to the letter included the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA), the National Association of Enrolled Agents (NAEA), the National Association of Tax Professionals (NATP), LatinoTaxPro, the National Society of Black CPAs, and Prosperity Now.

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I own Tax Therapy, LLC, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. I am an Enrolled Agent and non-attorney practitioner admitted to the bar of the U.S. Tax Court. I

Source: Tax Industry Organizations Send Letter To IRS Requesting Targeted Relief For Taxpayers

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More contents:

Plane Talk: 737 MAX In Focus For Boeing Q2, With F-35 Top Of Mind At Lockheed

Getty Images
Getty Images

Key Takeaways:

  • Lockheed and Boeing are reporting Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Boeing’s troubled 737 MAX likely to be in spotlight
  • Lockheed navigating geopolitical issues

It’s a tale of two planes this week as Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) earnings line up on the runway.

After months of grappling with 737 MAX troubles, Boeing (BA) doesn’t seem likely to get much of a lift from earnings season when it reports Wednesday. Thanks to BA’s announcement last week of a nearly $5 billion charge related to the situation, some of the financial mystery surrounding the crisis is out of the way as earnings approach.

At LMT, geopolitics are a potential challenge for sales of the popular F-35 jet fighter and might be a discussion point on its earnings call Tuesday.

Boeing Quarter to See No Contribution from Key Airliner

For BA, Q2 is the first this year to fully reflect the complete grounding of the troubled 737-MAX plane after two deadly crashes.

Last Thursday, Boeing said it will record an after-tax charge of $4.9 billion, or $8.74 per share, connected with its estimate for potential concessions and other considerations to customers for disruptions. This charge will result in a $5.6 billion reduction of revenue and pre-tax earnings in the quarter. The entire estimated amount will be recognized as a charge in Q2.

The good news—if you can find any in a situation like this—is that BA also said it expects to get the plane back into service by early in Q4, which is earlier than some analysts had expected. Before BA’s announcement, some media reports speculated it wouldn’t get into the air again until next year. Also, the charges might look relatively small compared to BA’s $210 billion market capitalization.

Big Drop in Q2 Deliveries for Boeing

Maybe even harder to swallow for BA and its investors is the competitive impact of the crisis. Deliveries of BA’s airliners slid 37% in Q2, even as Europe’s Airbus (EADSY)—the world’s other leading aircraft manufacturer—made solid strides.

Airbus said it delivered 389 planes in the first half, up 28% from 303 a year earlier. It’s on pace to deliver a record number of planes this year. Meanwhile, BA’s deliveries went the wrong way in the first six months of 2019, falling to 239, from 378 a year earlier. Deliveries of the company’s 737 model fell by more than half.

BA reported no orders of the 737-MAX in June for the third-straight month since the separate crashes that killed 346 passengers earlier this year and in 2018. The company continues to work through software issues with the troubled jet, including another flight control issue involving failure of a microprocessor announced by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) last month.

BA’s earnings conference call is probably going to sound more like a “737-MAX” conference call, so consider listening closely for any updates on fixes to the jet. Some analysts say BA is doing the right thing by not focusing too much on timetables and emphasizing a quality outcome over timing.

Even if BA can satisfy the government that it’s taken all the necessary steps to make the plane safe again, airlines would need more than a month in many cases to get the planes back into flying condition, The Wall Street Journal reported recently. Several airlines have now pushed back their estimates of when they can get the 737 MAX back into their rotations, with Southwest (LUV) the latest to do so. Last week, LUV pulled the plane off of its flight schedule into early November, a month longer than it had expected in June. LUV is the largest U.S. operator of the jet.

BA’s Q1 earnings report barely reflected the 737-MAX issue, because the plane wasn’t grounded until nearly the end of that quarter. In Q2, it was on the tarmac for all three months, so now investors can get a sense of the full impact.

However, even in Q1 things weren’t all that positive, with BA noting then that cash flow fell nearly 10% from a year earlier due to lower 737 aircraft deliveries. Revenue came in slightly below expectations in Q1 and fell $500 million from the same quarter in 2018.

This time around, struggles could get worse, if analysts are correct. Beyond that, BA—like other industrial companies—faces the challenge of higher materials costs due in part to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from China. These are important components of aircraft building.

If you’re looking for any good news from BA, perhaps it’s worth noting that the company did deliver a record 18 of its 787 Dreamliner jets in June, with monthly production of that jet now at 14.

Boeing Earnings and Options Activity

When BA releases results, it is expected to report adjusted EPS of $1.78, down from $3.33 the prior-year quarter, on revenue of $19.99 billion, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. That revenue would represent a 17.6% drop from a year ago. These earnings projections don’t reflect the charges announced by BA last week.

The options market is implying about a 3.1% stock move in either direction around the upcoming earnings release. Implied volatility was at the 22nd percentile as of Monday morning.

Looking at the July 26 weekly expiration, put volume has been light overall, but heaviest at the 365 and 370 strikes. Call volume has seen a little more action, most heavily at the 375 and 380 strikes.

Note: Call options represent the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time. Put options represent the right, but not the obligation to sell the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time.

No Turkish Delight for Lockheed

Like BA, Lockheed Martin (LMT) faces a possible headwind from tariffs on materials it uses to build products. It also has its own issues with a plane, though arguably they’re nowhere near the level of BA’s concerns.

LMT’s F-35 fighter jet, which makes up about 30% of the company’s sales, recently came into the spotlight when the U.S. government halted delivery of two F-35 planes to Turkey. This was in response to Turkey making a multi-billion dollar deal to buy a Russian missile system. The issue becomes more serious for LMT because Turkey also faces the forfeiture of 100 promised F-35 jets, CNBC reported.

Complexities build for LMT when you consider that the F-35 is financed and manufactured partly by Turkey. That means LMT could need to replace the manufacturing done in that country.

For now, LMT sounds hopeful about its fighter jet despite the Turkey controversy.  “We continue to see strong demand both from our existing partners and potential new international customers and are confident the F-35 program will continue to grow,” a company official told the WSJ.

However, the company’s earnings call tomorrow could include questions from analysts about any deeper financial impact LMT might face.

A couple other factors to consider going into the call include whether the recent strong dollar is having an impact on foreign demand for LMT products, and whether business is seeing any impact from the U.S./China tariff situation.

There’s a sense that LMT and other defense companies could be getting helped by rising defense budgets, including in the U.S. However, the U.S. defense budget for next year remains contested in a battle between Democrats who control the House of Representatives and President Trump and congressional Republicans. Democrats in the House passed a $733 billion defense budget bill earlier this month that Trump and Republicans oppose. Trump had proposed $17 billion more in spending.

The House and Senate have a few weeks left to reconcile their competing versions of a defense bill. Any delay on a new budget agreement might raise questions about demand for LMT’s products in the coming months.

Lockheed Earnings and Options Activity

Lockheed crushed estimates in Q1, with earnings up 49% from a year earlier. At the time, LMT updated its forecast for 2019 financial results, with earnings anticipated between $20.05 a share and $20.35 a share. Expected full year revenue was also increased, to a range between $56.8 billion and $58.3 billion.

One thing to watch when LMT reports tomorrow is whether any of that guidance changes.

Lockheed Martin is expected to report adjusted EPS of $4.77, up from $4.05 in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Revenue is projected at $14.2 billion, up 6% from a year ago.

The options market is implying about a 2.5% stock move in either direction around the coming earnings release. Implied volatility was at the 18th percentile as of Monday morning.

thinkorswim chart

TREADING WATER: Boeing shares (candlestick) have basically been treading water for a few months now, as this year-to-date chart shows, while Lockheed shares (purple line) have retreated from recent highs. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

thinkorswim

TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

I am Chief Market Strategist for TD Ameritrade and began my career as a Chicago Board Options Exchange market maker, trading primarily in the S&P 100

Source: Plane Talk: 737 MAX In Focus For Boeing Q2, With F-35 Top Of Mind At Lockheed

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