Advertisements

Could the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Be a Victim of COVID-19?

In a promotional video featuring Japanese tennis superstar Naomi Osaka, as well as fans of different nationalities, the organizing committee for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games revealed on Feb. 17 the event’s official motto: United by Emotion.

Yet if there’s one emotion linking the world today, it might be fear. The COVID-19 outbreak shows little sign of weakening. As of Feb. 19, the disease has infected more than 75,000, killed 2,014 and prompted over 50 countries and territories to close their borders to arrivals from China. The “devil” virus, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has called it, has already surpassed the combined death toll of SARS and MERS and lies on the cusp of becoming a pandemic that spreads around the globe. The next few weeks will determine whether containment efforts can prevent COVID-19 becoming the “black swan event” that Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang has warned may derail the global economy.

The economic repercussions already look severe. According to analysis by research firm Capital Economics, COVID-19 will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year, meaning that global GDP will not grow from one quarter to the next for the first time since 2009. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5% over the same period. Some 5 million companies have Chinese suppliers, according to data company Dun & Bradstreet, and all are under threat from slashed manufacturing capacity.

Korean automaker Hyundai has shut its huge factory in Ulsan due to a shortage of parts. Apple has told investors it will fail to meet quarterly revenue targets and warned of global “iPhone supply shortages” from the shutting of Chinese factories. The slowdown may also undermine U.S. plans to massively boost exports of agricultural goods, energy and services to China, hampering any potential recovery in farming communities and the Rust Belt.

Travel in and around the region has ebbed significantly. Some 21 airlines have cancelled all flights to mainland China. Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific has cut 40% of network capacity and asked 27,000 employees to take unpaid leave to help it stay afloat. Events from the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens to K-Pop concerts have been cancelled or postponed.

Now, speculation is mounting about one of the year’s biggest events due to take place directly in the orbit of the outbreak—the 2020 Olympic Games, which are to be held in Tokyo beginning July 24. Japan has the second highest rate of COVID-19 infections after China, with 695 people testing positive for the virus, most of them on a cruise ship docked at the city of Yokohama. Yet the Olympics torch relay is due to begin next month and traverse to all of Japan’s 47 prefectures over 121 days, coinciding with its popular cherry blossom bloom.

The chill on visitor numbers across Asia already risk making the Games a subdued affair. Japan received 9.6 million visitors from China in 2019, accounting for a third of foreign tourist expenditure, but Chinese arrivals have virtually ceased since the outbreak. According to Japanese public broadcaster NHK, Tokyo 2020 organizing committee chief executive Toshiro Muto said on Feb.5 he was “extremely worried that the spread of the infectious disease could throw cold water on the momentum toward the Games.”

Officials have since closed ranks as speculation about the Games has increased. Organizing committee president Yoshiro Mori insisted Feb. 13, “we are not considering a cancelation or postponement of the Games—let me make that clear.” As he spoke, some 3,700 people remained quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, anchored less than two miles from Yokohama Baseball stadium, a key Tokyo 2020 venue. (Those uninfected were scheduled for release beginning Feb. 19.)

Four days later, the city canceled the Tokyo Marathon due to take place on March 1 for all except elite runners. Dick Pound, a former Olympian swimmer and member of the International Olympic Committee, told TIME the organisation was monitoring the situation closely but said no one was talking about relocation or cancelation with five months still to go. “If there’s a legitimate pandemic that is potentially a lot more lethal than normal illnesses of flu, that’s when you need to start thinking about it. But not at this stage.”

Mori’s confidence is in line with projections that COVID-19 will fade during warmer and more humid summer months, as SARS did in 2003. But it’s still not clear why SARS declined as temperatures rose. Some coronavirus strains—like MERS—thrive in the heat, says Prof. Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota. The theory of COVID-19’s summer regress is simply “based on wishful thinking,” he says. “There is no data to support it.”

It’s hard to overstate the economic impact on Japan were the Olympics forced to be canceled or relocated. The investment surrounding the event is staggering; the Games are set to cost $25 billion, according to latest predictions, nearly four times the original estimate. According to hospitality research firm CBRE Hotels, 80,000 hotel rooms were forecast to open across Japan’s nine major cities between 2019 and 2021. Tokyo’s Okura hotel reopened in September after a $1 billion renovation. In May, national carrier Japan Airlines is due to launch a low cost subsidiary, Zipair Tokyo, at a cost of around $200 million, to meet increased demand surrounding the Olympics. It will be based at Tokyo Narita International Airport, which is currently undergoing an expansion to nearly double capacity. (Tokyo’s other main airport, Haneda, is also due to boost capacity by 70%.)

The coronavirus is already keeping international visitors away beyond China. Capital Economics research suggests tourism arrivals in Japan will fall by 40% this quarter due to COVID-19, knocking off 0.4 percentage points from growth. The U.N.’s International Civil Aviation Organization forecasts that Japan could lose $1.29 billion in tourism revenue over the same period. Koichiro Takahara, CEO of Tokyo-based ride-sharing app nearMe, says he fears the Olympics could get cancelled if the outbreak worsens. That, he says, “would have a big impact on my business, so I am keeping my fingers crossed.”

It would also impose a political cost on Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Already, his insistence during the bidding process that radiation from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant meltdown would be tackled has been called out after Greenpeace found radiation hotspots in December near where the Olympic torch relay will pass. Similar assurances that COVID-19 will not disrupt the Games will be treated with skepticism, says Jules Boykoff, a politics professor at Pacific University, Oregon who studies the Olympics and played soccer for Team USA. “For many, when they hear Abe and other officials saying that COVID-19 will not affect the Olympics, they hear the unmistakable ring of previous empty promises.”

But it’s unclear what a Plan B might look like. Simon Chadwick, professor of the Eurasian Sport Industry at France’s Emlyon business School, suggests a networked event held across different countries is a more likely alternative. (The 2020 UEFA European Soccer Championships and 2022 Commonwealth Games are slated for such a format.) Yet there will be considerable resistance from sponsors and broadcasters who have already ploughed vast resources into securing rights deals and promotional activities. NBC alone spent $1.4 billion on broadcasting rights for Tokyo 2020. In this regard, both host and business interests will be furiously resisting any deviation. “The Japanese government is surely lobbying the IOC hard as it seeks to protect its multitude of investments,” says Chadwick.

That might explain an apparent unwillingness to address the uncertainty. Asked what contingency plans were in place for moving or postponing the Games, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government told TIME, “We cannot provide a definitive answer to a hypothetical situation.” Yet as the virus spreads its tendrils further into the Asia region, the risks are only becoming more tangible.

By Charlie Campbell February 20, 2020

Source: Could the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Be a Victim of COVID-19?

코로나19 확산 일로…도쿄 올림픽도 불안감 증폭 With the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics just five months away from kicking off in the Japanese capital,… the COVID-19 outbreak is raising concerns about whether the world’s biggest and most-celebrated sporting event might have to be called off. Lee Seung-jae reports. The Tokyo Marathon scheduled for March 1st will be held on a much smaller scale than originally planned this year in the light of the COVID-19 outbreak. Roughly 38-thousand amateur runners will not be allowed to participate,… instead it’ll be limited to only 200 elite runners and wheelchair participants. However, the bigger concern is the 2020 Tokyo Summer Games that’s scheduled to start on July 24th. As the COVID-19 outbreak is not yet under control,… there are concerns over whether the event could even take place. The WHO says it hasn’t made a decision on the matter. “We have not offered advice to the IOC for the Olympics one way or the other, and neither would we. It is not the role of WHO to call off or not call off any event. It is the role of WHO to offer technical advice, to support a considered a multi-layered risk assessment around an event, to offer advice on risk reduction and risk mitigation measures, to offer advice on risk response measures and it is the decision of hosting countries and the organizing agencies to make that decision.” According to the Tokyo 2020 Organizing Committee chairman,… the committee isn’t even considering cancelling or delaying the event,… and will press on with the Olympics regardless. Citing a Japanese virologist,… the New York Post reported on Wednesday,… that if the Olympics were to happen tomorrow,… they would have to be cancelled. The Tokyo organizing committee and the IOC have reiterated that they’re going to continue following the advice of the WHO. It raises the possibility that, if the outbreak spreads further,… the Tokyo 2020 Olympics could be postponed or completely called off. Lee Seung-jae, Arirang News. #COVID19 #coronavirus #Olympics Arirang News Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/arirangtvnews

Advertisements

No Customers, Closed Stores: Chinese Entrepreneurs Brace For The Worst Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

Zhou Yuxiang was not in the mood for festivities during China’s Lunar New Year holiday this year. The 30-year-old CEO of Shanghai-based software startup Black Lake Technologies had to figure out how to manage his company amid the country’s deadly coronavirus outbreak. Working from home to comply with local quarantine rules has lowered productivity, while expenses remained high as he still needs to pay rent even when no one is using the office.

What’s more, Zhou says, clients are slower to take on new contracts as factories remain shut and production is delayed, hurting his otherwise fast growth.

“This epidemic caused production suspension for a considerable number of factory clients,” he says, who counts 300 factory owners as customers of his cloud-based management software. “Unpredictability on when factories could resume production has increased uncertainty for our first quarter growth.”

As the deadly virus, temporarily called 2019-nCoV, shows no sign of slowing, China’s vast business scene is taking a hit. While some companies, including Zhou’s, hope to recoup any losses before the year’s end, others are suffering a much more devastating blow.

This is because the epidemic’s economic damage is far and wide. It is believed to be more contagious than the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic, causing the Chinese government to impose nationwide mall closures, movie cancellations and factory shutdowns to prevent the disease’s further spread. As manufacturing and business activities cease, first quarter GDP growth will plummet to 3.8%—which equals to $62 billion in lost growth—and drag full-year GDP growth below 6% to 5.4%, according to UBS economist Wang Tao.

Sectors that are hardest hit include catering, entertainment, hospitality, retail and transportation. These businesses tend to have heavy inventory or a lot of expenses, but they can’t generate any meaningful revenue when people stay indoors.

Jia Guolong, founder of popular restaurant chain Xi Bei, told local media this week that his company only had enough cash for the next three months. He still needs to pay rent and salary to more than 20,000 employees, even when his restaurants are largely empty. To preserve cash, Hong Kong’s flag carrier, Cathay Pacific has asked its 27,000 employees to take three weeks of unpaid leave, warning that the condition is as grave as the 2009 global financial crisis. And fast-food operator Yum China is expecting negative impact on 2020 full-year sales and profit, after temporarily shutting down 30% of its stores in China.

While these larger businesses may eventually have the resources to weather through, smaller startups could experience a life-and-death moment. Zhang Yi, founder of Guangzhou-based consultancy iiMedia Research, says he won’t be surprised if a wave of bankruptcies occur. And Wang Ran, founder of Beijing-based investment firm CEC Capital, urged startups to do whatever they can to survive.

“Downsize if you need to, relocate if you need to and lay off people if you need to,” Wang wrote in a recent blog post. “Only those who lived through this can see spring, and have a future.”

Beijing has put out rescue measures. The country’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced on February 2 that it would pump $174 billion worth of liquidity into the markets to help cushion the impact. Local governments have called for rent deductions and more flexible salary arrangements, with the Shanghai municipal government promising tax and insurance refunds to employers who don’t engage in layoffs.

But analysts say business survival may ultimately depend on whether the virus can be contained. Since originating in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December, it has spread across the country, infecting more than 28,000 people and killing over 500. There are now coronavirus cases around the world, including Japan, Thailand, Germany, the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency and dozens of nations, including Italy, Singapore and the U.S., have placed travel restrictions from China.

“The longer this drags on, the bigger the damage,” iiMedia Research’s Zhang says. “If it lasts for another month, then it would be unbearable for any business.”

Startups are doing what they can to minimize damage. Black Lake’s Zhou is offering discounted services, especially to clients who are based in the most affected areas. Zhou Wenyu (not related to Zhou Yuxiang), founder of Shaoxing-based software startup Youshupai, is slowing down marketing activities and transferring its first quarter sales goal to the second quarter. And Joanne Tang, founder of travel and marketing agency Infinite Luxury, says she is diversifying to other Asian markets while reminding overseas-based clients not to reduce efforts in China.

“For sure, we are in a challenging time,” Tang says. “We have to monitor how it goes, but we won’t be standing still and just wait until this is over.”

I am a Beijing-based writer covering China’s technology sector. I contribute to Forbes, and previously I freelanced for SCMP and Nikkei. Prior to Beijing, I spent six months as an intern at TIME magazine’s Hong Kong office. I am a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University. Email: ywywyuewang@gmail.com Twitter: @yueyueyuewang

Source: No Customers, Closed Stores: Chinese Entrepreneurs Brace For The Worst Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports on how the coronavirus outbreak is expected to take a serious toll on China’s economy. Expect supply disruptions as China takes measures to contain an ongoing coronavirus outbreak, says REYL Singapore’s Daryl Liew. “The sharp action taken by the Chinese government to basically delay workers going back to work is definitely going to cause some supply disruptions,” Liew, who is chief investment officer at REYL Singapore, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Thursday. With the virus infecting at least 7,700 and killing 170 in China, authorities have taken measures to curb the disease’s spread. At least three provinces have declared that businesses, other than some essential industries, are barred from resuming work before Feb. 10. In Hubei province, where the majority of cases have been found, resumption of local business has been delayed till at least Feb. 14. A “big question mark” remains over how long the disruptions could last, Liew said, as it depends on whether the situation can be contained. That comes as manufacturing numbers were showing “some normalization,” he added. “It’s a bit of a lagging indicator but the December ISM numbers have all been broadly positive, especially for Asian economies … which suggest essentially that global trade is normalizing. It’s not bouncing back significantly but it is rebounding,” Liew said, adding that that has translated to better manufacturing numbers. “The current virus … and the extended shutdown in China will definitely put a crimp to that,” Liew said. Potential impact on US businesses The outbreak has sent tremors across markets in Asia and beyond in recent days, as investor concerns about the potential economic impact grow. “We’re concerned that there could start to be … some overall impact on the Chinese economy which could lend itself, from a sentiment perspective, to greater concerns … for the global economy,” Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at Boston Private, told CNBC on Thursday. That could spillover into the performance of U.S. businesses at a time when the “strain of lower production” is being felt stateside, Saccocia said. “If we start to see that upended by the fact that factories aren’t opening and … we’re not able to get the components that we need from the Chinese economy, you know, that could … certainly slow any sort of manufacturing reacceleration that we were hoping for in the first two quarters of 2020,” she said. The Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, is the epicenter of the outbreak, and authorities have placed multiple cities in the province under partial or complete lockdown. Wuhan and the surrounding region of Hefei and Jiangsu are major manufacturing hubs that work with American firms. But they have also been shut down due to the virus outbreak. “As an investor, you need to understand … where the supply chain starts and ends and factor in to your expectations … for those companies,” Saccocia said, though she acknowledged that it’s “a little early” to “paint the picture that half of the year is going to be meaningfully lower from a growth standpoint due to this virus.” For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://www.cnbc.com/pro/?__source=yo… » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: https://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC #CNBC #CNBC TV

Coronavirus Pushes Airlines To Their Worst Financial Hit In 17 Years

The deadly coronavirus discovered in China has traveled by air to some 25 other countries. It’s no wonder a lot of those countries are restricting flights and handing airlines their worst event-driven financial hit since 2003.

More than 25,000 flights were canceled in the first full week of February, according to data from air travel intelligence firm OAG. Thirty airlines have suspended services to China, reaching a combined 8,000 seats per week, OAG says. The virus, discovered in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December, has sickened more than 40,000 people and killed over 900 as of February 10.

Airlines will feel a financial pinch that reminds them of the deadly outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that started in China in 2003, aviation experts predict. They say today’s suspensions are already as bad as the SARS peak from March through June 2003. They attribute that to the coronavirus’s quick, widely-reported spread and the equally fast moves around the world to ban travel-related activity—a result of everyone learning from the SARS crisis.

“The levels of cancelations that we are seeing are unprecedented and exceed any other pandemic event that we can recall,” says Mayur Patel, head of Asia at OAG. He attributes the pileup of cancelations to “swift action from regulators and airlines.”

The SARS epidemic hollowed out 8% of annual revenue per kilometer for Asia Pacific airlines and cost them $6 billion in revenues due to lost business, Singapore’s Business Times reports. That epidemic hit Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore as well as major mainland Chinese cities.

Losses expected from the coronavirus-linked cancelations are “broadly consistent with the SARS level” when China-headquartered airlines alone slashed at least 50% of flights, says Eric Lin, aviation analyst in Hong Kong with the investment bank UBS. He anticipates industry losses at least in the first quarter this year.

Mainland Chinese airlines have felt most of the impact this year to date, Lin says. Among those are state-owned carriers such as Air China and China Southern Airlines. Privately-owned peers including Hainan Airlines have cut back, too.

Taiwan’s airlines and Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific will be especially hit hard because of their dependence on China flights, Lin forecasts. Going farther out, United Airlines and British Airways have both reduced China flights.

A spokesperson for Taiwan-based EVA Airways said Friday the carrier planned to scale back China flights through April and that it was “monitoring the development of coronavirus outbreak and passengers’ travel demand to adjust route network and flight frequency.” Taiwanese peer China Airlines set up a Q&A website for worried passengers on February 4 and said it would refund fares booked directly through the company.

Losses this year could add up further if the virus spreads more outside China, Moody’s Investors Service said in a January 31 research note, though a dip in oil prices might offset that. “Carriers with weaker business models or liquidity profiles are likely to be hit harder and take longer to recover,” Moody’s said in the note.

Airlines will probably cope with losses by cutting costs, including non-paid leave for employees, Lin says. But some diversified routes to avoid depending on China, he adds. On whether or not airfares will rise, “do not expect a lot of bargains,” he says.

Civil aviation will bounce back fast once the virus recedes, if the SARS progression repeats this year, analysts believe. The main airport in Beijing, a SARS outbreak area, reported peak passenger flows a month after SARS passed, while the country’s airlines were selling 90% of their seats, China Daily reported back then.

Lin expects a V-shaped recovery from the coronavirus slump that’s now addling airlines. That’s because passengers who spiked travel during the disease outbreak suddenly jump back into it with extra demand, Lin says.

“Our experience of such events is that air services will return quickly after the virus has been contained and demand will rapidly follow,” Patel says.

Follow me on Twitter.

As a news reporter I have covered some of everything since 1988, from my alma mater U.C. Berkeley to the Great Hall of the People in Beijing where I followed Communist officials for the Japanese news agency Kyodo. Stationed in Taipei since 2006, I track Taiwanese companies and local economic trends that resonate offshore. At Reuters through 2010, I looked intensely at the island’s awkward relations with China. More recently, I’ve studied high-tech trends in greater China and expanded my overall news coverage to surrounding Asia.

Source: Coronavirus Pushes Airlines To Their Worst Financial Hit In 17 Years

Airlines have begun suspending flights as fears mount over the coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia’s Lion Air is halting all flights to and from China from Feb 1, while Jetstar Asia will suspend flights between Singapore and several cities in China because of a drop in demand. British Airways said it is stopping all direct flights to and from mainland China. Subscribe to our channel here: https://cna.asia/youtubesub Subscribe to our news service on Telegram: https://cna.asia/telegram Follow us: CNA: https://cna.asia CNA Lifestyle: http://www.cnalifestyle.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/channelnewsasia Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/channelnews… Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/channelnewsasia

Why This Week Could Be Pivotal for Understanding the Coronavirus Outbreak

It has been less than two months since authorities in the central Chinese city of Wuhan announced they were investigating a mysterious pneumonia-like viral infection. In that time, the pathogen—later identified as novel coronavirus 2019-nCov—has spread around China with abandon—from a few dozen suspected cases to more than 20,000 confirmed infections, and causing more than 420 deaths.

But this week could prove crucial for understanding how much farther the outbreak is likely to spread and whether the dramatic efforts of Chinese authorities to contain the coronavirus have been effective.

Officials in China began placing entire cities on lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of the deadly virus on Jan. 23, when outbound trains and flights from Wuhan— the biggest city in Hubei province, population 11 million— were suspended. The next day authorities broadened the lockdown to include 13 cities, and by Jan. 25 the blockade had expanded to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million, creating what is believed to be the largest quarantine in human history.

“This week we should start to see the effects of the containment strategy,” Ben Cowling, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, tells TIME. “This week is a critical week.”

The virus appears to have an average incubation period of about five days, according to a study published by researchers in China on Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine. The study focused on the first 425 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Wuhan, where it is believed to have originated in a seafood market. Cowling says it can take at least another five days for a sick person to be tested and receive confirmation of a coronavirus infection.

“If the number of reported cases begin to slow, this might be an early indication that control measures are working, or are least having an effect on the trajectory of the virus,” Charles Chiu, a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, says.

Chiu adds that if the number cases continue to rise significantly this week, it’s reason for additional concern. “It would suggest that the stringent control measures that have been put into place by China to prevent spread… are not adequate to prevent spread of this virus,” Chiu says.

Researchers caution that there are a lot of details they don’t know for sure that could change this calculus. For instance, it’s still not certain how long the incubation period lasts. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it can take anywhere from 2 to 14 days for symptoms to appear. Additionally, it’s still not clear whether the virus can be transmitted in the incubation period—while patients are asymptomatic.

Katherine Gibney, an infectious diseases physician at Royal Melbourne Hospital and an epidemiologist at the Doherty Institute in Melbourne, tells TIME that if the control measures delay the epidemic from taking off in countries outside of mainland China—so far there are less than 200 confirmed cases elsewhere—it might buy medical experts time to develop a vaccine or antiviral medication.

Some researchers believe that, despite the efforts of Chinese authorities, that the number of infections is likely to rise for several months. Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong said in a Jan. 27 press conference that by his projections, the outbreak might only peak in April or May in major cities in China.

That around 5 million people fled Wuhan before the lockdown went into effect might also have hampered containment efforts. The virus is transmissible enough that the average sick patient, according to the NEJM paper, will infect about two others.

Another factor that could push up infection numbers is the mild symptoms some patients experience. Shira Doron, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, says that the first patients diagnosed are often those who are very sick, and it might be possible that in the coming weeks it will become apparent that the number of people with mild illness, or even asymptomatic infection, is much larger than currently recorded. Doron says that the death rate reported early in an outbreak often “grossly overestimates the true fatality rate.”

Infections shot up from 639 cases in mainland China on Jan. 23, when officials started putting control measures in place, to around 9,700 cases a week later on Jan. 30. As of Tuesday, the number of cases on the mainland stands at around 20,500. In mainland China, the number of both infections and deaths from the virus has already surpassed that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which killed 348 people on the mainland and infected more than 5,000 during an outbreak in 2002 and 2003.

The first cases outside of mainland China were confirmed in Thailand and Japan on Jan. 13 and 16. Cases in South Korea, Taiwan and the U.S. were confirmed on Jan. 21, and there are now more than 194 cases in over 23 countries.

Spotlight Story
The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Derail Xi Jinping’s Dreams of a Chinese Century
The virus looms over the President’s national rejuvenation project and his rigid, top-down rule is being tested

As of Tuesday, 425 people have died in mainland China. There has also been one death in the Philippines and one in Hong Kong.

As infection counts have grown in China, other countries have imposed their own strict measures to curb the advance of the virus—most of them targeting travelers from the world’s most populous nation. Italy and Israel have cancelled all flights from China. Mongolia and Russia have shut their borders with the country, and Singapore has banned the entry and transfer of travelers holding passports issued in Hubei province. In the U.S., the Trump Administration on Jan. 31 declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency and announced that it will temporarily deny entry to any foreign national who “poses a risk” of transmitting the virus. But on Monday, U.S. authorities confirmed the country’s second case of human-to-human transmission in a person who had no recent history of travel to China.

Experts will be watching closely this week for signs that the virus is continuing to grow and spread—especially outside the province where Wuhan is located.

“What we’re worried about is that we don’t see any reduction in the steady increase,” Cowling says.

By Amy Gunia February 4, 2020

Source: Why This Week Could Be Pivotal for Understanding the Coronavirus Outbreak

148K subscribers
An outbreak of a pneumonia-like illness that started in the city of Wuhan has put health authorities on high alert in China and around the world. The new coronavirus—named 2019-nCoV—is thought to have originated in the food market of the central China metropolis and has since infected hundreds of people. China first reported the outbreak on Dec. 30. Most of the deaths have been in Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital. Ahead of the Lunar New Year on Jan. 25—often dubbed the largest annual human migration in the world—Chinese authorities have restricted some travel to try and stop the illness’s spread. In Wuhan, public transportation and ride-hailing services have been suspended, trains and flights from the city have been stopped and people have been told to leave only for essential reasons. Similar travel restrictions were announced in at least 11 other Chinese cities, impacting more than 40 million people. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/2TwO8Gm QUICKTAKE ON SOCIAL: Follow QuickTake on Twitter: twitter.com/quicktake Like QuickTake on Facebook: facebook.com/quicktake Follow QuickTake on Instagram: instagram.com/quicktake Subscribe to our newsletter: https://bit.ly/2FJ0oQZ Email us at quicktakenews@gmail.com QuickTake by Bloomberg is a global news network delivering up-to-the-minute analysis on the biggest news, trends and ideas for a new generation of leaders.

Hundreds of Americans Are in Quarantine. Here’s Why That’s Rare

RIVERSIDE, CA – JANUARY 29: A team in white biohazard suits watch as some of the approximately 200 passengers walk to waiting buses upon arriving on a charter flight from Wuhan, China, after landing at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, Calif. Wednesday morning Jan. 29, 2020. The flight originated from the area where the coronavirus outbreak started. All the passengers will be held in quarantine for an unknown duration. (Photo by Will Lester/MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images)

 A typical room has a ceiling fan, striped wallpaper and floral curtains. Above a neatly made bed is a chintzy print showcasing a cobblestone alley. In communal areas, residents have space to watch big-screen TVs or throw around a football or read a book under a tree, and the U.S. Marshals Service is providing security.

Such are the conditions at the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County, Calif., where 195 people are subject to the first mandatory quarantine orders issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in more than 50 years. Like more than 600 other people assigned to five other military bases around the country, these Americans were recently evacuated from China’s Hubei province, the site of the novel coronavirus outbreak that has now claimed more than 600 lives.

All but two of those deaths have occurred in mainland China, where more than 31,000 cases have been confirmed. The crisis is now creeping around the world, with cases reported in more than 24 other countries, including 12 in the U.S.

There is widespread anxiety about sickness, and much is still unknown about the virus, including whether people without symptoms are capable of spreading it. Facing such uncertainty, the CDC took the extraordinary measure on January 31 of drawing on legal authority that the department hasn’t used since the 1960s — when officials were combatting smallpox — to impose a mandatory, 14-day quarantine on recently repatriated Americans who had been in Hubei. Two weeks is the likely incubation period for the virus.

https://i1.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/slides_18.png?resize=740%2C351&ssl=1

“We are taking measures to minimize any contact. We expect confirmed infections among these and other returning travelers from Hubei province,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a briefing on Feb. 5. “Now is the time to act so that we can slow the introduction and impact of this virus in the U.S.”

A few days earlier, when the federal government announced the quarantine, Messonnier called the action “unprecedented.”

There are several good reasons that ordering a quarantine is something that U.S. public health officials rarely do.

Finding quarters can be a challenge

For starters, the government does not have dedicated quarantine facilities just waiting to be used, explains Arthur Reingold, professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Berkeley’s School of Public Health.

Quarantine refers to the containment of apparently healthy people who may be incubating a virus they’ve come in contact with. (Isolation is the term for confining someone who is already sick.) In previous eras, this was often done on sea-going vessels. Passengers who might have a sickness like the plague would wait out the likely incubation period on a ship before being allowed to land. “But quarantine vessels went out of business a long time ago,” Reingold says.

Faced with a need to suddenly house hundreds of people, the Department of Health and Human Services turned to the Department of Defense, and six military bases were made available. The main criteria in choosing them, a DoD spokesman says, was their ability to comfortably house approximately 250 people in one or two buildings, like an on-base motel where everyone has their own bathroom, and close proximity to a hospital. Locations in the West, given the shorter flight distance from China, were also preferable, which is why half of the bases are in California, with one more in each of Colorado, Texas and Nebraska.

Quarantines are expensive

Even with locations secured, executing humane quarantines involves a lot of logistics, and that doesn’t come cheap. There are transportation and ongoing housing costs. Individuals need to be fed and regularly checked for symptoms. It requires medical care on-demand. And there’s security and maintenance to consider.

The CDC and HHS have not responded to requests from TIME asking about cost estimates for the current quarantines or whether the department will cover all costs. The HHS, which oversees the CDC, announced on Feb. 3 that it was making $250 million in emergency funds available to generally cover response, including screening and monitoring of U.S. citizens returning from various parts of China.

Tabulating the bills may also be a messy business. The DoD, for example, tells TIME that it expects full reimbursement for all costs from HHS. So does the state of California. A spokesman for Riverside County, meanwhile, says that while they hope to get reimbursed, it’s not been made clear if it will be.

With five county departments supporting the quarantine at March Air Reserve Base, including the provision of staff that includes doctors, nurses, behavioral health specialists and epidemiologists, as well a mobile health clinic that is at the base in case individuals get a migraine or scrape a knee, the estimated costs for the county alone are an estimated $115,000 per day.

The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Derail Xi Jinping’s Dreams of a Chinese Century
The virus looms over the President’s national rejuvenation project and his rigid, top-down rule is being tested

“Clearly the cost element of it is not a factor when we’re asked to provide services on an urgent basis. Our first priority is to figure out how to do it and then do it,” Riverside County spokesman Jose Arballo, Jr., says. That said, he adds, “The county isn’t in a situation where it’s flush.”

Putting aside the incalculable value of preventing an outbreak of the coronavirus, quarantines can potentially be cost-saving in the long run. “While expensive it’s more than worth it,” Larry Gostin, an expert in public health law and professor at Georgetown University, writes in an email. “It prevents spread of disease and serious illnesses. And it’s far less costly than having to hospitalize many patients who could contract the coronavirus infection.”

People’s freedom must be limited carefully

Another reason mandatory quarantines are uncommon in America is that they are, of course, coercive. Though federal and state governments have the legal ability to impose quarantines in the name of public safety, the ACLU has raised concerns about the government controlling people’s freedom of movement and noted that individuals’ livelihoods can be put at risk if they’re unable to work for weeks at a time. (The CDC has not responded to a request from TIME about whether the department will cover lost wages for individuals under quarantine orders.) It can also cause disruptions in childcare.

https://i2.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/1318276706Banner-ad121.jpg?resize=740%2C273&ssl=1

Soon after the 195 people arrived at March Air Reserve Base, one individual did attempt to leave and was ordered back. Otherwise, Arballo says, the individuals in quarantine have been cooperative and “appreciative of the work being done.” Attitudes may have been tempered by gratitude that the U.S. government helped them escape the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, as well as knowledge that spread of the disease would be harmful. The U.S. Marshals Service says that agents have not had to stop anyone from leaving — that no one is revolting — but in the unlikely event that someone did, they would intervene.

Georgetown’s Gostin has noted that there is a world of difference between today’s relatively small quarantines at American military bases, where people are housed in the equivalent of a modest hotel room, and what is happening in China, where the government has essentially put 56 million people on lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Such extreme actions can cause panic, drive the epidemic underground and potentially make it worse, leading to cross-infection and social isolation, he explains. People may have difficulty accessing basic necessities, much less sufficient medical care.

The Americans quarantined at the March Air Reserve Base, in contrast, requested and were brought beer to enjoy while watching the Super Bowl.

The efficacy is unclear

Even when quarantines are imposed on narrow populations and rolled out compassionately, it’s not clear how effective it is to limit the movement of people who aren’t showing symptoms, Berkeley’s Reingold says. “For many infectious diseases, transmission basically is limited entirely or almost entirely to people who are symptomatic,” he explains. “Quarantining asymptomatic individuals has generally been viewed as a low priority.”

Yet, in the case of the new coronavirus, there has been conflicting evidence about whether asymptomatic people are contagious. “Until we know more, given the concerns, given the anxiety, this is a reasonable measure to take,” Reingold adds.

W. Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University, recently traveled to Beijing and Guangzhou. Upon returning to the U.S., he was mandated by the government to self-quarantine for 14 days because the CDC views those areas of China as medium risk, he says. He is currently in his cabin in upstate New York, writing in to the government with temperature and status reports.

When asked for his thoughts on the quarantines, he responded with concerns about being objective given that he has been personally affected. “The new coronavirus is highly transmissible,” he wrote in an email. “Thus, I appreciate the concern underlying the decision to impose quarantines. I’m not sure that we need 14 days.”

While mandating quarantines could be an expensive and cumbersome overreaction, CDC’s Messonier suggested the department would rather be remembered for doing too much rather than doing too little as scientists race to learn more about the virus. And experts say Americans should feel reassured that they live in a wealthy country where expensive overreactions are an option. Populations who live in poor countries in Asia or Africa, where officials have more limited capabilities of response, are at higher risk if the coronavirus starts to spread.

At the March Air Reserve Base, two individuals — both children — have been found to have fevers. One was transported to a nearby hospital on Feb. 3, with a parent, and was transported back to the base when tests for the virus came back negative. A second was transported on Feb. 5. As of Friday morning, they remained in isolation at the hospital awaiting test results.

By Katy Steinmetz February 7, 2020

Source: Hundreds of Americans Are in Quarantine. Here’s Why That’s Rare

7.59M subscribers
195 Americans are under quarantine as blood samples and throat cultures get tested by the CDC after the group was evacuated to California from the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China. 6,000 passengers stuck on cruise ship over coronavirus fears READ MORE: https://abcn.ws/392BsP1 #ABCNews #Coronavirus #China

Coronavirus Strikes Korea’s Motor-Vehicle Industry As Hyundai, Kia Begin Suspending Lines

Beijing Hyundai Plant Tour

The coronavirus is endangering South Korea’s automotive industry—its biggest and most visible export after semiconductors.

The reason is simple. Hyundai Motor and its sister company Kia Motors, as well as three smaller competitors, are not getting wiring that’s made in China by the Korean subsidiary of Leoni, a German car-parts maker. Leoni, like many other companies, has shut down operations in China at least until next week.

The first Hyundai vehicle to suffer was the top-of-the-line Genesis, a luxury sedan that’s manufactured at the company’s historic plant in Ulsan, on the southeastern coast of South Korea, about 190 miles southeast of Seoul.

Hyundai said its plants in Ulsan and two other cities would be slowing down and possibly halting operations until early next week or unless wiring production resumed in China or domestic Korean companies could begin to fill the need. The company asked workers not to report for normal overtime shifts producing its Palisade sports utility vehicle.

There were also concerns that other components might soon be in short supply. Bosch, the German manufacturer, has had to close its two plants in Wuhan until next week. Volkmar Denner, Bosch’s CEO, told reporters in Stuttgart there had been “no disruptions” so far. But “if this situation continues, supply chains will be disrupted,” he added.

Similarly, Kia, which manufactures a number of vehicles on similar platforms as Hyundai vehicles, has had to cut down production at its plants in Korea while suspending work in China.

Together, Hyundai and Kia theoretically produce more than 9 million vehicles a year at plants in Korea and abroad—5.5 million produced by Hyundai and 3.8 million by Kia, according to Yonhap. Their goal this year has been 7.5 million, up from 7.2 million last year, but the coronavirus is already cutting into production and sales in China and may lower expectations elsewhere.

Hyundai Motor, South Korea’s second-largest conglomerate after the Samsung empire, revealed the problems as South Korea counted 16 people so far stricken by the coronavirus, which has claimed more than 400 lives in China. The latest case here was that of a 42-year-old woman who had returned from a trip to Thailand, where 25 people have been diagnosed with the disease, the most outside China.

Besides Hyundai and Kia, Ssangyong Motor, already troubled by severe losses, had to suspend production at its plant at Pyeongtaek, 40 miles southwest of Seoul. GM Korea, Korea’s third-largest motor-vehicle maker, and Renault Samsung Motors both said they were watching to see what to do next, though the latter said it could obtain wiring from its Japanese partners, Nissan and Mitsubishi, reported Yonhap.

The virus is also hitting Korea’s tourism industry. The government stopped granting visa-free entry to foreign travelers wishing to visit the highly popular tourist destination of Jeju, a scenic island province off Korea’s southern coast that’s connected directly by air to major Chinese cities; Chinese nationals accounted for almost all the foreign visitors to the island without visas last year. Lotte Duty Free and Shilla Duty Free, immense attractions for Chinese tourists, have both had to suspend operations on Jeju.

Just as devastating, Samsung Electronics has had to suspend its newly opened flagship store in Shanghai after rival Apple already closed most of its operations in China. Yonhap quoted a Samsung official as saying the store, which opened in October, had closed “for safety.”

Check out my website.

I have reported from Asia since covering the “Year of Living Dangerously” in Indonesia, 1965-66, and the war in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos in the late 1960s-early 1970s for newspapers and magazines, including the Chicago Tribune and the old Washington (DC) Star. I also wrote two books from that period, “Wider War: the Struggle for Cambodia, Thailand and Laos” and “Tell it to the Dead.” In recent years I’ve reported from Korea for the Christian Science Monitor, International Herald Tribune, Forbes Asia, etc. while writing “Korean Dynasty: Hyundai and Chung Ju-yung,” “Korea Betrayed: Kim Dae-jung and Sunshine” and, in 2013, “Okinawa and Jeju: Bases of Discontent.” I’ve also reported a lot from Japan, the Philippines and Iraq and spent much of 2013 as a Fulbright-Nehru senior research scholar in India.

Source: Coronavirus Strikes Korea’s Motor-Vehicle Industry As Hyundai, Kia Begin Suspending Lines

https://i0.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/extra-moisturizing-baby-wash.jpg?resize=740%2C283&ssl=1https://i0.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/81z6IHU66rL._SL1500_.jpg?resize=740%2C311&ssl=1

Want to Protect Yourself from Coronavirus? Do the Same Things You Do Every Winter

Any Americans likely grew a little nervous after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Thursday that a novel coronavirus has spread for the first time within the U.S. But agency officials and other doctors have a simple message for Americans: keep doing what you’re doing to stay healthy.

“The best things that you can do are the things that we generally recommend at this time of year to prevent the spread of infectious diseases,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a Jan. 30 call with reporters. “Wash your hands, cover your cough, take care of yourself and keep alert to the information that we’re providing, because we’ll provide new information as it becomes available.”

In Asia, the novel coronavirus known as 2019-nCoV is spreading rapidly, and has reached far enough to warrant being designated a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization. As of noon Friday, it has infected nearly 10,000 people, most of them in mainland China, and killed 213. But public health officials have emphasized that risk to the American public remains low, and spreading within the U.S. has so far been limited to one wife-to-husband transmission.

While 2019-nCoV has never been seen before, it’s part of a family of viruses that are well-known both to doctors and the public; the common cold, for example, can be caused by certain coronaviruses. And while influenza is not a coronavirus, it isn’t so different from 2019-nCoV, either. Both result in symptoms including cough and fever, and—from what scientists can tell so far—both seem to be spread mainly via respiratory droplets and close person-to-person contact.

For those reasons, experts are recommending prevention measures in keeping with those deployed during a normal flu season. The CDC has not recommended that Americans wear protective masks or take dramatic measures against coronavirus. Messonnier did emphasize during Thursday’s call that people who have been in Wuhan, China—where the outbreak originated—or spent time around people who have traveled from the area should monitor themselves for symptoms of coronavirus, such as cough, fever and respiratory distress. These people should call their health care provider and stay home from work or school if any symptoms develop.

Aside from that, though, there’s not much Americans can or should do at this point, beyond the usual measures.

“Good hand-washing helps. Staying healthy and eating healthy will also help,” says Dr. Sharon Nachman, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at New York’s Stony Brook Children’s Hospital. “The things we take for granted actually do work. It doesn’t matter what the virus is. The routine things work.”

And while the flu shot won’t protect against coronavirus—and there’s no vaccine for the new virus yet—experts are still recommending that people get vaccinated against influenza if they haven’t yet, since the likelihood of getting the flu in the U.S. is far higher than contracting coronavirus. (For context, the CDC estimates that around 19 million Americans have gotten the flu so far this season, compared to only a handful who have developed coronavirus domestically.) As long as flu virus is still circulating, it’s not too late to get a flu shot.

By Jamie Ducharme January 31, 2020

 

Source: Want to Protect Yourself from Coronavirus? Do the Same Things You Do Every Winter

https://i0.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/1920x1080_04.jpg?resize=715%2C402&ssl=1https://i1.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Shopalyst-Banner-Thea-2-190221-1-01.png?resize=740%2C309&ssl=1https://i2.wp.com/onlinemarketingscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/PHS_Main_Banner-1_2048x.jpg?resize=740%2C493&ssl=1

%d bloggers like this:
Skip to toolbar