Why Do Antibodies Fade After a COVID-19 Infection & Will The Same Thing Happen With Vaccines

Plasma cells secreting antibodies

The goal of the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out worldwide is to stimulate our immune systems into creating a protective response against the coronavirus, particularly by generating antibodies. These antibodies then circulate in our blood until needed in the future, attacking and removing the coronavirus quickly from our bodies if we become infected.

The speed with which the scientific and medical communities have developed and tested these new vaccines has been extraordinary. However, this short timescale leaves us with some outstanding questions.

Key among these is how long the protection we receive from vaccination, or indeed from infection with the virus itself, will last. We know, for example, that antibody levels drop quite quickly following a COVID-19 infection.

How the immune system remembers

Our body’s remarkable ability to remember past encounters with infectious microorganisms and retain robust defences against them is due to the phenomenon of immunological memory. This memory resides in white blood cells known as lymphocytes, of which there are two main types: T cells and B cells.

When the body faces a new challenge – either a new infection or vaccine – specific T cells and B cells are recruited to deal with it. “Memory” versions of these specific cells are then kept on standby in case the same issue is encountered again in the future.

It is these B cells that are responsible for releasing antibodies into the blood. When an infection or vaccination occurs, some of them will metamorphose into specialised antibody-production factories, known as plasma cells.

Antibodies are proteins, and like any other protein will be naturally broken down and removed from the body within a few months at most. This is the reason why protection from antibodies that we receive passively, for example from our mothers in the womb or through breast milk, does not last very long. For longer-term protection, we need to produce antibodies for ourselves.

Our body’s ability to maintain antibody levels following infection or vaccination is a result of two mechanisms. In the early stages, if memory B cells detect any persistent infection or vaccine, some will continue to turn into new antibody-producing plasma cells.

Once the infection or vaccine has been completely removed, memory B cells no longer replenish the plasma cell population, which declines. However, some may persist as long-lived plasma cells (LLPCs), which can live for many years in our bone marrow, continually manufacturing and releasing large quantities of antibodies. LLPCs aren’t always created after an infection, but if they are, antibodies against a specific infection can be found in the blood for a long time after the infection has cleared.

Although we don’t yet fully understand which immunisation conditions are best for generating LLPCs, their presence has been linked to certain locations. For example, a US group discovered that LLPCs appear to prefer the marrow of certain bones above others. Ten years after tetanus vaccination, LLPCs were found in femur, humerus and tibia bone marrow much more commonly than that of the ribs, radius, vertebrae or iliac crest.

Quite why LLPCs prefer the marrow of these bones is not yet clear. One interesting possibility is differences in the bone marrow fat level. LLPCs were found to be surrounded by large numbers of fat cells in these bones. This suggests that it may be bone marrow fat content that affects the ability of LLPCs to move to – and reside long term in – certain bones.

But if LLPCs aren’t created, that doesn’t mean someone cannot generate more antibodies against a threat if it is encountered again in the future. Providing the person has generated memory B cells, these will recognise the familiar threat, and once again some will start transforming into new plasma cells, to begin antibody production once more.

Vaccine type affects durability too

There are many reasons why vaccination or infection do not always provide protection that is long lasting. Some of this is due to individual variation in our response to a given vaccine. However, the features of vaccines themselves determine the nature of the antibody response too.

One study found that although a greater proportion of individuals who received tetanus and diphtheria vaccines developed protective antibodies, these antibodies faded more rapidly than those generated by measles, mumps or smallpox vaccines. The key difference between these vaccines is that those against tetanus and diphtheria contain only isolated proteins (modified versions of the toxins that tetanus and diphtheria bacteria make), whereas the measles, mumps and smallpox vaccines contain live, weakened versions of these viruses.

Some people may not produce good responses to live vaccines due to pre-existing immunity to the vaccine itself, having already had a natural infection. However, those that do respond well tend to keep their responses for longer. This is partly due to persistence of the live vaccine in the body, which encourages the short-term replenishment of plasma cells. It is also likely that live vaccines are better at producing LLPCs.

We have already seen that the rate at which antibodies decay following COVID-19 can differ, for example between men and women. Many of the new COVID-19 vaccines are based on novel delivery methods, such as viral vectors or messenger RNA molecules. Clearly these are very effective in their delivery of rapid protection. But quite how well they will activate memory B cells and LLPCs, imparting long-lived immunity, remains to be seen.

 

By: Senior Lecturer in Biomedical Sciences, Brunel University London

Source: Why do antibodies fade after a COVID-19 infection, and will the same thing happen with vaccines?

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Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

On Monday, Italy placed its 60 million residents under lockdown, as the number of cases of the COVID-19 virus throughout the country continues to rise.

In less than a month, Italy has gone from having only three cases of the coronavirus to having the highest number of cases and deaths outside of China, with 463 deaths and at least 9, 172 of people infected throughout all 20 regions of the country. The number of cases rose by 50% on March 8 alone. Italy also faces an above average mortality rate of 4%.

“We all must give something up for the good of Italy,” Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a televised address on Monday while announcing the nationwide lockdown. “There is no more time.”

The nationwide lockdown is expected to have major economic repercussions on the country, where growth was already stagnating. While the government has not specified exactly how long the ban will last, it says it will remain in place until April 3.

Keep up to date with our daily coronavirus newsletter by clicking here.

Here is how the virus spread across the country — and why it is so much worse in Italy than any other European country:

How did coronavirus start spreading in Italy?

Officially it began in Feb. 20, when a 38-year-old man checked himself into a local hospital in the town of Codogno in Lombardy. He tested positive with the virus, becoming the first recorded patient with the COVID-19 virus in Italy.

Yet some health officials believe that the virus arrived in Italy long before the first case was discovered. “The virus had probably been circulating for quite some time,” Flavia Riccardo, a researcher in the Department of Infectious Diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health tells TIME. “This happened right when we were having our peak of influenza and people were presenting with influenza symptoms.”

Before the first case was reported, there was an unusually high number of pneumonia cases recorded at a hospital in Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward Stefano Paglia told the newspaper La Repubblica, suggesting it is possible patients with the virus were treated as if they had a seasonal flu. Health facilities hosting these patients could have become sites for infection, helping proliferate the spread of the virus.

The northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, have been most affected by the outbreak. 85% of infected patients are in the region which is home to 92% of deaths so far. But the virus has been confirmed in all 20 regions of the country.

Why does Italy have such a high number of cases and deaths?

Because the virus spread undetected, some officials believe this is the reason for such a high number of cases in the country. “This started unnoticed which means by the time we realized it, there were a lot of transmission chains happening,” Riccardo says, noting that this may be why Italy has seen such a high number of cases.

Some officials also believe Italy, which has already tested over 42, 000 people, may have a higher number of cases as a result of performing more rigorous tests than their European counterparts.

Italy, however, is also reporting an above average mortality rate at 4%. The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.”

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases. “We are not doing enough,” he said.

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates. According to a report by the Swiss air monitoring platform IQAir, 24 of Europe’s 100 most polluted cities are in Italy. “Studies have shown a high correlation between mortality rates from viral respiratory conditions and pollution,” Casani says. “This could be a factor.”

Was the Italian government prepared for the outbreak?

The outbreak in Italy has come as a surprise to some, given the stringent measures Italy imposed to protect itself from the virus. A month before the first case was reported, the Italian Health Ministry created a task force to manage coronavirus. Italy was the first European Union country to ban flights to and from China.

The travel ban, however, may have encouraged travellers to come in on connecting flights without disclosing their country of departure. Some experts also believe the virus could have entered the country before the government took action, spreading undetected throughout the country.

How is the government responding now?

The Italian government has taken the biggest steps outside of China to curb the spread of the disease.

Under the new lockdown legislation, people can be issued fines for traveling within or outside the country without a permit, though foreigners still can travel to Italy. All public events are banned and schools have been cancelled throughout the country. Public spaces, such as gyms, theatres and cinemas, have also been closed by the government. Individuals who defy the lockdown could face up to three months in jail or a fine of $234. The new rules prohibit inmates from having visitors or day releases, which set off protests at 27 prisons throughout the country.

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Many have applauded Italy’s actions. In a tweet, the Director-General of the World Health Organization commended Italy for its “bold, courageous steps” and for “making genuine sacrifices.”

Some infectious disease and public health experts, however, have concerns about the effectiveness of the lockdown.

“These measures will probably have a short-term impact,” John Edmunds, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine told Reuters, noting that the measures were “almost certainly unsustainable.” He added, “if they can’t be sustained for the long term, all they are likely to do is delay the epidemic for a while.”

How is the Italian healthcare system handling it?

Italy’s current national health service, known as Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN), provides free universal care to patients yet remains under-funded. Investments in public healthcare make up only 6.8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is lower than other countries in the European Union including France and Germany.

“The continuous cuts—to care and to research—are obviously a problem right now,” Casani says. “We were not prepared. We do not have enough doctors for the people. We do not have an organized plan for pandemics.”

With the number of coronavirus cases on the rise, the Italian health ministry has doubled the number of hospital beds in infectious disease wards. The Governor of Lombardy Attilio Fontana has requested that universities grant degrees earlier this school year in order to increase the number of nurses in Italy. Yet some health officials fear these efforts will not be enough.

“Right now in Lombardy, we do not have free beds in intensive care units,” Casani says. He added that doctors “have to make this horrible choice and decide who is going to survive and who is not going to survive…who is going to get a monitor, a respirator and the attention they need.”

What impact will the lockdown have on the Italian economy?

The lockdown could push Italy into a recession. Berenberg bank, which before the outbreak estimated that Italy’s GDP would contract by 0.3%, now forecasts it will fall by 1.2% this year.

Lombardy, the region most affected by the outbreak, account for one-fifth of Italy’s GDP. The Italian tourism sector, which makes up 13% of the country’s GDP, is projected to lose $8.1 billion, according to the Associated Press, as a result of 32 million fewer foreign travelers.

Conte said on March 9 that the government would deploy a “massive shock therapy” in order to protect the economy. Italy’s Deputy Economy Minister, Laura Castelli said in an interview with Rai Radio 1 today that “mortgages, taxes, everything is suspended” as a result of the lockdown. The government has also created a support package of $8.5 billion for families and businesses affected by virus.

Some experts are concerned about the long-term implications of this spending.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, Italy was already struggling with a public debt that is at 134% of the country’s GDP. In the Europe Union, countries are not supposed to have debt that is higher than 60% of their country’s GDP. “With the increased spending that comes with having to support people and businesses, the deficit might explode,” says Pepijn Bergsen, a Europe Research Fellow at Chatham House.

An economic slowdown in Italy, a country in the Eurozone, will have impacts on the rest of the continent.

“It is likely there will be a Eurozone wide recession this year,” Bergsen says, citing both an Italian recession and potential future lockdowns in other European Union countries as contributing factors. “It will be difficult for authorities to come up with any measures that would avoid a recession.”

Please send any tips, leads, and stories to virus@time.com.

Here’s what you need to know about coronavirus:

By Mélissa Godin March 10, 2020

Source: Why Is the Coronavirus Outbreak So Bad in Italy?

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Coronavirus Drug Update: The Latest Info On Pharmaceutical Treatments And Vaccines

The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic poses a unique challenge for healthcare providers. There are no approved treatments for this disease, nor are there any approved vaccines.

That’s put big drug companies, universities and biotech startups on the hot seat. Since the 2003 outbreak of SARS, another variety of deadly coronavirus, they’ve been researching ways to handle diseases that can be produced by this family of viruses. When a coronavirus is capable of infecting humans, it typically attacks the respiratory system, which can make them particularly deadly.

It usually takes about 10 to 15 years to develop a vaccine. The good news: leaps in technology, such as the ability to rapidly sequence virus genomes and to create vaccines out of messenger RNA, are speeding up the process of development. Developing new drug treatments can also take time – about a decade from discovery to getting on the market. But here technology also provides an advantage: new types of antiviral drugs and immunotherapy treatments, can treat a wide range of diseases. Which means that drugs already in the development pipeline or already treating diseases in patients could be useful to fight COVID-19, shortening the time it will take to make an effective medicine.

On this page, we’ll be tracking and regularly updating the development of new treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, from research to testing to commercial release.

Gilead Sciences

For the past few years, Foster City, California-based Gilead has been developing Remdesivir, an anti-viral that’s shown promising results in lab and animal studies against SARS, MERS, Ebola and other infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The company has initiated clinical trials in the U.S. and China to see if the drug can be effective against the new coronavirus, and also working with governments to provide the drug as an emergency treatment in the absence of other options.

Status: Large-scale human testing

Of note: A World Health Organization assessment from February described remdesivir as the “most promising candidate” against COVID-19.

AbbVie

AbbVie manufactures the co-formulation lopinavir/ritonavir, which is used to treat HIV. It’s currently collaborating with health authorities to see if it can be used as a treatment against COVID-19, based on unconfirmed reports in China that its use was helpful in combating it. It has provided the drug to several countries, including China, as an experimental option.

Status: Working with health authorities such as the CDC, WHO, and the National Institutes of Health regarding testing.

Moderna

Cambridge, MA-based biotech startup Moderna has developed a potential mRNA vaccine against COVID-19. The vaccine was developed in collaboration with scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The vaccine works by getting the immune system to develop antibodies against a “spike protein” found on the virus. A batch of the vaccine has been manufactured and delivered to the NIAID for a first round of testing.

Status: Phase 1 testing

Of note: The vaccine was developed, manufactured and sent out for testing just 42 days after the coronavirus DNA sequence was first published.

Johnson & Johnson

Pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson has partnered with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, a federal agency that helps develop countermeasures to biological threats, to develop potential vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. The company is working to identify molecules in its libraries that might be effective against the disease. It’s also leveraging technologies that were used to successfully develop an ebola vaccine towards finding promising vaccine candidates.

Status: Investigation and development

Of note: In addition to looking at new therapies, Johnson & Johnson has sent batches of its HIV drug darunavir/cobicistat to China to test its efficacy against COVID-19.

Eli Lilly

Indiana-based pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly announced that it is partnering with Vancouver-based biotech firm AbCellera to co-develop antibody-based treatments against COVID-19. The firms have already discovered “hundreds” of antibodies that might be effective against the disease, with the next step being to screen those for the most effective treatment candidate.

Status: Screening antibody candidates to move to testing phase

Of note: “In 11 days, we’ve discovered hundreds of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus responsible for the current outbreak,” AbCellera CEO Carl Hansen said in a statement.

Pfizer

Earlier this month, Pfizer announced that it had discovered several promising antiviral molecules that stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus from reproducing in cells in the lab. The candidates are currently being screened to identify the best candidates to move into the development pipeline. The company’s Chief Science Officer, Mikael Dolsten, noted that the company might also consider exploring the combination of these molecules with antiviral treatments developed by other firms.

Status: Early development

Of note: On Friday, the company announced that part of its plan to combat COVID-19 would be sharing its expertise with smaller biotech companies and committed to using its excess manufacturing capacity to scale up any approved therapy or vaccine.

GlaxoSmithKline

GSK has previously developed a pandemic vaccine adjuvant platform, a system that helps to improve vaccines by strengthening the immune response in patients who receive it. In February, the company announced it was partnering with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to use that platform to improve potential vaccines to the new coronavirus. As part of that collaboration, it signed an agreement with the University of Queensland, Australia, which is developing a potential vaccine.  GSK has also partnered with Chinese pharmaceutical company Clover to use its adjuvant platform with that company’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

Status: Vaccines are still in early testing

Vir Biotechnology

San Francisco-based Vir Biotechnology announced March 12 that it’s going to be collaborating with BioGen to manufacture antibodies that may have potential to treat COVID-19. The company has identified antibodies from people who recovered from SARS, and is studying to see if they might be active against the new coronavirus, as the two are very similar. Vir is also working with federal agencies to advance its research against other coronaviruses.

Status: Early stage

Of note: In February, Vir announced it’s working with Chinese pharmaceutical firm WuXi Biologics on this research as well.

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Source: Coronavirus Drug Update: The Latest Info On Pharmaceutical Treatments And Vaccines

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Coronavirus Claims Its First Airline Casualty As Britain’s Flybe Folds

Topline: British airline Flybe, which is the leading regional U.K carrier, collapsed after it succumbed to its financial woes and weakened demand because of the Covid-19 outbreak.

  • Flybe’s collapse marks the first airline casualty since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak and puts 2,400 jobs at risk, while it is expected to hamper hit businesses and transport links around its regional British hubs.
  • Passengers have been advised not to go to the airport as flights will not be operating. Flybe said in a statement: “All flights have been grounded and the UK business has ceased trading with immediate effect.”
                       

                       

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  • But its collapse will deal a blow to the British government’s plans to increase transport links between U.K. regions.

Big number: 8 million. That’s how many passengers the airline carries a year.

Key background: Flybe narrowly escaped collapse in January, after being bought by Cyrus Capital, Virgin Atlantic and Stobart last year. Boris Johnson’s government agreed a rescue plan with Flybe’s owner weeks ago, to enable it to repay its $130 million (£100 million) debt, while its owners agreed to pour $38 million (£30 million) into the struggling airline. At the time, Johnson told the BBC: “Be in no doubt that we see the importance of Flybe in delivering connectivity across the whole United Kingdom.” On Thursday, the government said that Flybe’s problems predated the impact of coronavirus.

                      

Chief critics: Pilots’ union BALPA said on Thursday it was “disgusted” at the “betrayal and broken promises” from the government.

General Secretary Brian Strutton said in a statement: “Six weeks ago, when the ownership consortium lost confidence the Government promised a rescue package, apparently at that time recognising the value of Flybe to the regional economy of the UK. Throughout, pilots, cabin crew and ground staff have done their jobs brilliantly, while behind the scenes the owners and, sadly, Government connived to walk away. Flybe staff will feel disgusted at this betrayal and these broken promises.”

News peg: Measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 worldwide—large scale lockdowns, travel restrictions and event cancellations—have put massive strain on the airline industry, which has seen a sharp drop in demand. Major U.S., European and Asian carriers have scrapped flights to hot spots to save costs and to contain the spread of the potentially deadly virus, while airlines including Cathay Pacific and Virgin Atlantic asked staff to take unpaid leave. Airline industry body IATA predicts that the crisis could cost global airlines $30 billion, but with the pneumonia-like virus spreading around the world the total cost could be far higher.

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Source: Coronavirus Claims Its First Airline Casualty As Britain’s Flybe Folds

Europe’s biggest regional carrier fell into administration after ministers rejected a request for a £100m state loan. Europe’s biggest regional carrier fell into administration after ministers rejected a request for a £100m state loan following seven weeks of talks, with shareholders bogged down in an industry-wide crisis caused by the disease and unwilling to help ­either. Read more about Flybe’s collapse: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/… Get the latest headlines: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ Telegraph.co.uk and YouTube.com/TelegraphTV are websites of The Telegraph, the UK’s best-selling quality daily newspaper providing news and analysis on UK and world events, business, sport, lifestyle and culture.

Coronavirus Could Be The End Of China As A Global Manufacturing Hub

The new coronavirus Covid-19 will end up being the final curtain on China’s nearly 30 year role as the world’s leading manufacturer.

“Using China as a hub…that model died this week, I think,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, a macro investment research firm.

China’s economy is getting hit much harder by the coronavirus outbreak than markets currently recognize. Wall Street appeared to be the last to realize this last week. The S&P 500 fell over 8%, the worst performing market of all the big coronavirus infected nations. Even Italy, which has over a thousand cases now, did better last week than the U.S.

China On Hold

On January 23, Beijing ordered the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday, postponing a return to work. The coronavirus was spreading fast in the epicenter province of Hubei and the last thing China wanted was for that to be repeated elsewhere. Travel restrictions and quarantines of nearly 60 million people drove business activity to a standstill.

The most frightening aspect of this crisis is not the short-term economic damage it is causing, but the potential long-lasting disruption to supply chains, Shehzad H. Qazi, the managing director of China Beige Book, wrote in Barron’s on Friday.

Chinese auto manufacturers and chemical plants have reported more closures than other sectors, Qazi wrote. IT workers have not returned to most firms as of last week. Shipping and logistics companies have reported higher closure rates than the national average. “The ripple effects of this severe disruption will be felt through the global auto parts, electronics, and pharmaceutical supply chains for months to come,” he wrote.

That China is losing its prowess as the only game in town for whatever widget one wants to make was already under way. It was moving at a panda bear’s pace, though, and mostly because companies were doing what they always do – search the world with the lowest costs of production. Maybe that meant labor costs. Maybe it meant regulations of some kind or another. They were already doing that as China moves up the ladder in terms of wages and environmental regulations.

Under President Trump, that slow moving panda moved a little faster. Companies didn’t like the uncertainty of tariffs. They sourced elsewhere. Their China partners moved to Vietnam, Bangladesh and throughout southeast Asia.

Enter the mysterious coronavirus, believed to have come from a species of bat in Wuhan, and anyone who wanted to wait out Trump is now forced to reconsider their decade long dependence on China.

Retail pharmacies in parts of Europe reported that couldn’t get surgical masks because they’re all made in China. Can’t Albania make these things for you? Seems their labor costs are even lower than China’s, and they are closer.

The coronavirus is China’s swan song. There is no way it can be the low-cost, world manufacturer anymore. Those days are coming to an end. If Trump wins re-election, it will only speed up this process as companies will fear what happens if the phase two trade deal fails.

Picking a new country, or countries, is not easy. No country has the logistic set up like China has. Few big countries have the tax rates that China has. Brazil surely doesn’t. India does. But it has terrible logistics.

Then came the newly signed U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, signed by Trump into law last year. Mexico is the biggest beneficiary.

It’s Mexico’s Turn?

Yes. It is Mexico’s turn.

Mexico and the U.S. get a long. They are neighbors. Their president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador wants to oversee a blue collar boom in his country. Trump would like to see that too, especially if it means less Central Americans coming into the U.S. and depressing wages for American blue collar workers.

According to 160 executives who participated in Foley & Lardner LLP’s 2020 International Trade and Trends in Mexico survey, released on February 25, respondents from the manufacturing, automotive and technology sectors said they intended to move business to Mexico from other countries – and they plan on doing so within the next one to five years.

“Our survey shows that a large majority of executives are moving or have moved portions of their operations from another country to Mexico,” says Christopher Swift, Foley partner and litigator in the firm’s Government Enforcement Defense & Investigations Practice.

Swift says the move is due to the trade war and the passing of the USMCA.

The phase one China trade deal is a positive, but the coronavirus – while likely temporary — shows how an over-reliance on China is bad for business.

There will be fallout, likely in the form of foreign direct investment being redirected south of the Rio Grande.

“Our estimates of possible FDI to be redirected to Mexico from the U.S., China and Europe range from $12 billion to $19 billion a year,” says Sebastian Miralles, managing partner at Tempest Capital in Mexico City.

“After a ramp-up period, the multiplier effect of manufacturing FDI on GDP could lead Mexico to grow at a rate of 4.7% per year,” he says.

Mexico is the best positioned to take advantage of the long term geopolitical rift between the U.S. and China. It is the only low cost border country with a free trade deal with the United States, so there you have it.

Thanks to over 25 years of Nafta, Mexico has become a top exporter and producer of trucks, cars, electronics, televisions, and computers. Shipping a container from Mexico to New York takes five days. It takes 40 days from Shanghai.

They manufacture complex items like airplane engines and micro semiconductors. Mexico is the rank the 8th country in terms of engineering degrees.

Multinational companies are all there. General Electric is there. Boeing is there. Kia is there.

The trade war is yet to be decided, but the damage that has already been done will not be undone. Room for a new key commercial ally is open.

– from “The U.S.-China Divorce: Rise of the Mexican Decade”, by Tempest Capital.

Safety remains a top issue for foreign businesses in Mexico who have to worry about kidnappings, drug cartels, and personal protection rackets. If Mexico was half as safe as China, it would be a boon for the economy. If it was as safe, Mexico would be the best country in Latin America.

“The repercussions of the trade war are already being felt in Mexico,” says Miralles.

Mexico replaced China as the U.S. leading trading partner. China overtook Mexico only for a short while.

According to Foley’s 19 page survey report, more than half of the companies that responded have manufacturing outside of the U.S. and 80% who do make in Mexico also have manufacturing elsewhere. Forty-one percent of those operating in Mexico are also in China.

When respondents were asked about whether global trade tensions were causing them to move operations from another country to Mexico, two-thirds said they already had or were planning to do so within a few years. A quarter of those surveyed had already moved operations from another country to Mexico on account of the trade war.

For those considering moving operations, 80% said they will do so within the next two years. They are “doubling down on Mexico”, according to Foley’s report.

Of the companies that recently moved their supply chain, or are planning to do so, some 64% of them said they are moving it to Mexico.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

I’ve spent 20 years as a reporter for the best in the business, including as a Brazil-based staffer for WSJ. Since 2011, I focus on business and investing in the big emerging markets exclusively for Forbes. My work has appeared in The Boston Globe, The Nation, Salon and USA Today. Occasional BBC guest. Former holder of the FINRA Series 7 and 66. Doesn’t follow the herd.

Source: Coronavirus Could Be The End Of China As A Global Manufacturing Hub

Subscribe to our YouTube channel for free here: https://sc.mp/subscribe-youtube China’s manufacturing industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus epidemic. Many factories are unable to resume production because of a shortage of workers, disrupted supply chains and sluggish demand, leaving manufacturers facing huge losses in sales as they struggle to ramp up production. Follow us on: Website: https://scmp.com Facebook: https://facebook.com/scmp Twitter: https://twitter.com/scmpnews Instagram: https://instagram.com/scmpnews Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sout…

 

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