JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance. Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.

The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.

These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.

Despite the crypto slump, banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin is massively undervalued. Maintaining its estimate of bitcoin’s fair value at $38,000, the bank today reiterated the assessment it gave the asset in February when the cryptocurrency was trading around $43,400. This price is approximately 28% higher than its current level of $29,757.

In a note to clients issued Wednesday, the bank has also stated that it is replacing real estate with digital, or crypto, assets as its preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds, citing “potential lagged repricing” in private equity, private debt and real estate. Alternative assets typically refer to ​​investments that aren’t stocks, bonds or cash.

The appraisal is a nod of confidence to bitcoin, which is currently trading at less than half its all-time high of $68,721, and the broader category in general. In addition to rising interest rates and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the cryptocurrency market is grappling with the $50 billion collapse of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token LUNA. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently sits at $1.3 trillion, a dramatic decline from $3 trillion in November.

“The past month’s crypto market correction looks more like capitulation relative to last January/February and going forward we see upside for bitcoin and crypto markets more generally,” the bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in the report.

The strategists also believe that “the trajectory for VC funding would be crucial in helping the crypto market to avoid the long winter of 2018/2019”, which followed the initial coin offerings boom. Just today, Ethereum scaling startup Starkware raised $100 million at an $8 billion valuation and venture giant Andreessen Horowitz announced a $1.5 billion allotment for crypto investments as part of its larger $4.5 billion fund.

“Thus far there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post-Terra’s collapse. Of the $25 billion VC funding year-to-date, almost $4 billion came after Terra,” the strategists noted. “Our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted.”

I report on cryptocurrencies and other applications of blockchain technology. I also edit the weekly Forbes Crypto Confidential newsletter and contribute to our premium research service

Source: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Undervalued By 28%, Says Cryptocurrencies Are Now A ‘Preferred Alternative Asset’

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Transparency In Crypto Industry ‘Critical’: Ripple CEO

Speaking with “Mornings with Maria” from the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Garlinghouse discussed regulation for the industry, noting that he traveled to Davos for the conference to engage with other CEOs and finance ministers from around the world “to talk about how these technologies can actually solve real world problems, and reduce costs and improve efficiency.”Garlinghouse also addressed volatility in the crypto market on Tuesday.

“There’s no question that regulation around crypto is still trying to find solid footing and finding the right posture for the United States,” Garlinghouse said before arguing that “the United States has really been behind other G-20 of markets,” including the U.K., Switzerland and Singapore.

He said that those markets “have led in establishing a framework that works for investors as well as entrepreneurs who are taking advantage of the new technologies and building the next generations of Google and Facebook.”

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC. 59.48 -6.62 -10.02%
BITQ EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST BITWISE CRYPTO INNOVATORS E 7.45 -0.57 -7.11%

Along with the stock market, bitcoin has experienced a lot of volatility recently. Two weeks ago, bitcoin plunged to the $25,000 level, its lowest since December 2020, then bounced back over $30,000, according to CoinDesk. As of Tuesday morning, the crypto was trading around the $29,000 level, down from its all-time high of over $68,000 reached in November 2021.

The crypto is down more than 36% year-to-date.“There’s no question there’s been a lot of turbulence in the crypto market,” Garlinghouse said, noting that “if you zoom out, though, over the last two years, you have to remember that bitcoin was at about $8,000 two years ago. Today it’s around $30,000.”

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of financial technology company Ripple Labs, discussed regulation and volatility in the cryptocurrency markets from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “This is a new market,” he continued. “There’s certainly been a lot of excitement about what’s going on in the market [and] sometimes that excitement gets ahead of the reality.”

“We’ve been focused on how do we use technologies to solve real problems for customers and those are the kind of solutions that will scale regardless of the turbulence and volatility of the market,” he went on to argue.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have had some rough weeks in anticipation of and following the half-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It was the second of several anticipated increases this year as the central bank seeks to combat soaring inflation, which is at a high not seen in four decades.

The expectation now is that the Fed will take aggressive action to try and curb inflation, which remains near 40-year highs, according to the data for April released earlier this month, which has reduced investor appetite to hold assets perceived as higher risk.

Adding to more fears of volatility in the crypto market was the decoupling of the TerraUSD, a stablecoin whose value was tied to $1, the Wall Street Journal reported. The world’s largest stablecoin by market cap, tether, also briefly edged down from its $1 peg.  Garlinghouse pointed out on Tuesday that “stablecoins have been in the news because that was one of the catalysts that really drove the market a couple of weeks ago.”

Stablecoins are digital currencies with values that are pegged to traditional assets, like the dollar, another currency or gold. Its correspondence with the dollar is what, in theory, makes it stable. However, volatility in the crypto market last week challenged that presumption.

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of financial technology company Ripple Labs, discusses the turbulance in the crypto market from the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. “I think now more than ever the transparency that companies like Ripple have championed across the crypto industry is critical,” Garlinghouse told host Maria Bartiromo.

“That transparency for tether I think is to really make sure the people participating feel, buy and have access to whatever financial information they need to feel comfortable that it is in fact dollar-backed.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a House committee hearing earlier this month that the sharp drop in crypto markets highlighted the need for additional federal regulation to respond to the wave of speculative investment in the currency whose secrecy is a major part of its attraction. In addition, a top official at the SEC indicated that tighter rules around crypto stablecoins could be drawing closer, Reuters reported.

Source: Transparency in crypto industry ‘critical’: Ripple CEO | Fox Business

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Crypto Price Mayhem: Data Reveals Bitcoin Is Braced For A ‘Short Squeeze’

bitcoin, bitcoin price, crypto, image

Bitcoin traders and investors are still reeling from a steep sell-off that’s wiped around $1 trillion from the combined cryptocurrency market.

The bitcoin price has crashed from almost $65,000 per bitcoin to under $40,000 despite a flood of positive bitcoin news in recent weeks—including Twitter TWTR +0.2% chief executive Jack Dorsey teasing a bitcoin payments plan.

Now, analysis of bitcoin trading data has suggested the bitcoin price could be hit by a so-called “short squeeze”—when the price of an asset increases rapidly due to an excess of bets against it.

“Given bitcoin’s past market performance, when traders use excessive leverage to short the market during a horizontal price adjustment, there will often be a short squeeze phenomenon,” Flex Yang, the chief executive of Hong Kong-based crypto lender and asset manager Babel Finance, wrote in analysis seen by this reporter and pointing to market data that shows recent capital inflows are “from short-sellers and that leverage has greatly increased.”

Since the bitcoin and crypto market crashed in mid-April, the volume of bitcoin perpetual holdings on the crypto exchange Binance have increased by 110%, with the ratio of long to short traders reaching a new low of 0.89—pushing funding rates into the negative.

According to Yang, the reasons behind such excessive shorts include “many people are anticipating a bear market; bitcoin “holders are building hedges,” or “those who bought at high prices are locked in.”

Historical bitcoin price data between February and April 2018 and then again from June to late July 2020, suggests an increase in short-selling is often followed by a bitcoin price surge.

“In November 2020, there was a temporary sharp increase in the number of short-selling positions at a high price,” wrote Yang. “Afterwards, the price of bitcoin continued to rise, continuing its bull market position. No matter if the market outlook is trending downwards after rebounding or if bitcoin maintains its bull market status, short traders have always suffered the consequence of being squeezed out and liquidated.”

The early 2021 bitcoin price bull run was brought to a sharp halt in April when fears over a crypto crackdown in China and mounting concerns over bitcoin’s soaring energy demands sparked panic among investors.

Tesla TSLA +1.1% billionaire Elon Musk sent shockwaves through the bitcoin market when he announced Tesla would suspend its use of bitcoin for payments until the bitcoin network increased its use of renewable energy.

The bitcoin price has failed to recover its lost ground despite continued reports that Wall Street banking giants are increasingly offering bitcoin investment and trading services and the Central America country El Salvador revealed plans to adopt bitcoin as legal tender alongside the U.S. dollar.

Follow me on Twitter.

I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported on how technology is changing business, political trends, and the latest culture and lifestyle. I have covered the rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrency since 2012 and have charted its emergence as a niche technology into the greatest threat to the established financial system the world has ever seen and the most important new technology since the internet itself. I have worked and written for CityAM, the Financial Times, and the New Statesman, amongst others. Follow me on Twitter @billybambrough or email me on billyATbillybambrough.com. Disclosure: I occasionally hold some small amount of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Source: Crypto Price Mayhem: Data Reveals Bitcoin Is Braced For A ‘Short Squeeze’

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Critics:

Predictions of a collapse of a speculative bubble in cryptocurrencies have been made by numerous experts in economics and financial markets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been identified as speculative bubbles by several laureates of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, central bankers, and investors.

From January to February 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell 65 percent. By September 2018, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index had lost 80 percent of its value, making the decline of the cryptocurrency market, in percentage terms, greater than the bursting of the Dot-com bubble in 2002.

In November 2018, the total market capitalization for Bitcoin fell below $100 billion for the first time since October 2017, and the price of Bitcoin fell below $4,000, representing an 80 percent decline from its peak the previous January. Bitcoin reached a low of around $3,100 in December 2018.From 8 March to 12 March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell by 30 percent from $8,901 to $6,206.By October 2020, Bitcoin was worth approximately $13,200.

Bitcoin has been characterized as a speculative bubble by eight winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences: Paul Krugman, Robert J. Shiller, Joseph Stiglitz, Richard Thaler, James Heckman, Thomas Sargent, Angus Deaton, and Oliver Hart; and by central bank officials including Alan Greenspan, Agustín Carstens, Vítor Constâncio, and Nout Wellink.

The investors Warren Buffett and George Soros have respectively characterized it as a “mirage”and a “bubble”; while the business executives Jack Ma and Jamie Dimon have called it a “bubble” and a “fraud”, respectively. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said later he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud.

Does China Have A Role In Bitcoin’s Rise

Everyone loves Bitcoin. Personally, I can’t get enough of it. Though I just sold all of my XRP, as an aside, because I learned it was being delisted from Coinbase next week, Bitcoin, on the other hand, I am keeping for the moonshot.

Now that Grayscale has its Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund, the market cap for Bitcoin has hit a trillion dollars. It is approaching $40,000 per coin.

We know the role central banks are playing in BTC’s rise: debasement of currency via money printing. But what about China?

This is the most curious one for me, especially following what appears to be the self-exile of Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Alibaba BABA +4.1%. Ma got into some trouble with Beijing regulators following the postponed listing of his fintech company Ant Financial, owners of AliPay, which is ubiquitous in China (you can also find it at your local CVS for some reason). Now there is talk of breaking up the Jack Ma tech empire, something akin to what anti-Big Tech advocates here in the U.S. have been asking be done of Google and Facebook.

One can almost see Chinese billionaires buying up Bitcoin, just in case Beijing comes for their wealth. Lord knows the dollar is in decline, and they probably already own a ton of stocks.

The Chinese currency, out of all the G10 currencies, has the strongest statistical correlation to BTC over the last 12 months, at around 84%. That means that as the RMB gets stronger against the dollar, so does Bitcoin, 84% of the time, says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research in Long Valley, New Jersey.

“When Bitcoin rises, the RMB is rising right along with it,” he says, adding that the euro has a 74% to 75% correlation with Bitcoin. The Russian ruble has a 25% correlation.

Bitcoin Could Soon Hit $70,000, And That Has Nothing To Do With Currencies. As Bitcoin Shoots Past $40,000, It Unequivocally Reminds Us That It’s Not Money

Bitcoin: Time To Exit

And then there is the Jack Ma effect. He’s the “canary in the coal mine” says Signorelli. “There could also be an internal dynamic in China keeping Bitcoin bullish,” he says. “You have Jack Ma’s total disappearance since October. Was it a canary in the coal mine for every millionaire and billionaire in China that you need to have a Plan B? There is a real risk of outright confiscation of your wealth. They see it clearly now.”

China’s crypto market has a massive user base. Singapore-based ZB.com Exchange is one of the top four exchanges that are popular among Chinese users. “Our in-app community is very active with Chinese users right now,” says Oman Chen, ZB’s CEO. The seven-year-old company runs digital asset trading platforms ZBM, ZBX and Bithi, cryptocurrency wallets like BitBank, and has a venture capital and research arm. “Most of these traders are very optimistic about the price of Bitcoin,” Chen says.

QCash, a stable coin trading pair supported on ZB.com, which is anchored to the Chinese yuan, is seeing strong trading volumes, according to ZB data. QC is the most liquid yuan-based stable coin.

China’s Digital Yuan Experiment

Last month, China gave its digital yuan a test drive in Suzhou. The experiment lasted roughly 10 days, but stands as a testament to China’s interest in crypto beyond the Bitcoin phenomenon.

Xinhua newswire reported on one resident surnamed Lu who had bought some snacks at a store in the Tianhong Shopping Mall using digital yuan. She transferred 66.6 yuan (about $10.21) from her digital wallet to the vendor’s account with no need for a cell tower connection.

Lu was one of the 100,000 residents of Suzhou who were given 200 digital yuan in the pilot program and could spend it at designated brick-and-mortar stores as well as online at JD.com between Dec. 12 to 27. Noted: not Alibaba.

This doesn’t mean the Chinese government loves Bitcoin, of course. Just that its population is more accustomed to the concept of cryptocurrency than the average American. Go ahead, ask your dad if he knows what Bitcoin is.

“The Chinese government considers Bitcoin a commodity, not a currency,” says Aries Wanlin Wang, a Chinese cryptocurrency investor.

The digital RMB (DCEP) program in Suzhou has adopted some blockchain functionalities but it is not the fully decentralized kind that true Bitcoin lovers want.

“The Chinese government wants to promote the digital yuan before anyone else,” says Wang. “They see the potential of a new payment and clearance system in the digital currency era. It may substitute the current Swift system,” he says, which tracks interbank transactions and is led by the U.S.

Crypto For Poor Countries

Last month, Venezuela’s government said it was giving up on its currency and would switch slowly to a digital system. Their Bolivar is worth less than seashells found on Margarita Island so it makes sense.

Argentina should be next. All of this will drive continued enthusiasm for Bitcoin, no matter the price. At the start of 2020, Ripio, one of Argentina’s largest crypto exchanges, had around 400,000 users and then ended the year with over a million.  

Argentina’s tight control over dollars (no one wants pesos there), coupled with a new 35% tax, plus limits as to how many dollars you can buy (just $200), means the Argentines have discovered Bitcoin in a big way, too.

China’s currency, unlike those two basket case currencies of South America, is strong and getting stronger. Moreover, its central bank has been moving on a digital form of its currency for at least three years. They lead on this within the big and medium-sized emerging markets. Indeed, the only country ever talking about Bitcoin is Venezuela, run by the mightily corrupt Socialists United party.

“Even though Beijing has a strong resistance to cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, they have taken the part of blockchain technology that is beneficial to their country’s development,” says Chen from Singapore.

“The central bank’s digital currency can not only give the country a higher level of control over the fiat currency but also snatch back some Chinese users from third-party digital payment platforms such as Alipay and WeChat,” Chen says. Since central bank digital currency is issued at the national level, like fiat currencies, the state endorsement is more powerful to skeptics and it accelerates demonetization in favor of crypto.

Bitcoin, in China at the moment, is rising with the fortunes of a stronger yuan and the digital yuan experiments.

Rich Chinese nationals may be thinking, ‘you know what, I rather have something that is loaded and convertible and beyond the reach of Beijing and perhaps the reach of the PBoC’ — that’s the central bank of China.

In this way, they don’t have to worry about currency devaluation and Bitcoin becomes a tax hedge. The top income tax rate in China is around 45%.

People might not remember, but this time last year gold was at $1515 an ounce; it’s now around $1850. The dollar on a gold basis has lost 20% or more of its value, notes Signorelli, searching for reasons why Bitcoin has doubled in less than four weeks.

“If you put your currency and inflation hedges into BTC instead of gold, man…you’re doing fantastic,” Signorelli says. “My suspicion is that as Chinese wealth increases, it is going to be increasingly difficult for Beijing to prevent their nationals from seeking ways to preserve their capital outside of the RMB. If they can’t buy U.S. real estate or stocks, and U.S. and European bonds pay little, they’ll take some more risk with Bitcoin, I think.”

Kenneth Rapoza

Kenneth Rapoza

I’ve spent 20 years as a reporter for the best in the business, including as a Brazil-based staffer for WSJ. Since 2011, I focus on business and investing in the big emerging markets exclusively for Forbes. My work has appeared in The Boston Globe, The Nation, Salon and USA Today. Occasional BBC guest. Former holder of the FINRA Series 7 and 66. Doesn’t follow the herd.

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China Uncensored

Bitcoin. It’s a big deal in China. It can be used to subvert government controls. And the government can’t shut it down. At the Oslo Freedom Forum, China Uncensored producer Matt Gnaizda sat down with Bitcoin expert Leo Wheese. He’s the President of the Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong. YouTube demonetizes our channels! We need your support!! https://www.patreon.com/ChinaUncensored We also accept bitcoin! http://www.chinauncensored.tv/bitcoin/ Make sure to share this video with your friends! __ Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/ChinaUncensor… __ Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChinaUncensored Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ChinaUncensored Instagram: http://instagram.com/ChinaUncensored or check out the China Unscripted Podcast! http://chinaunscripted.libsyn.com/ __ © All Rights Reserved. #bitcoin xrp libra bitcoin news btc

Bitcoin Just Painted a ‘Golden Cross’ But Is $10,500 Now Achievable?

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Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in a somewhat neutral zone, caught between two highly consequential paths. For the past week, the top-ranked digital asset on CoinMarketCap has struggled to push above $9,900 in order to attack the $10K mark.

On Tuesday morning Bitcoin made another attempt at $10,000 when the price quickly rallied to $9,900 as some sort of hiccup in the BitMEX trading engine caused the exchange to cut out for nearly an hour. The move didn’t last long and for the remainder of the day, the price remained pinned below $9,800.

Yesterday the mining difficulty rate dropped by 6%, meaning some miners who shut down their operations due to the block reward reduction and current Bitcoin price may also find it easier to mine Bitcoin after the difficulty adjustment.

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is currently at a ‘crossing the Rubicon’ moment. Some traders believe that if the asset can rally to $10,200 and close above this level the path forward is bullish, especially if Bitcoin can push through $10,500. Others believe that a drop below the $8,900-$8,550 support zone means prolonged sideways price action is to be expected for the remainder of 2020.

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin continues to make higher lows and remains above the multi-week ascending trendline. Currently, the price continues to tighten in a pennant seen on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframe.

A strong volume breakout from this pennant should propel the price to $10,200, a point which is also aligned with the top arm of the Bollinger Band indicator.

Does a golden cross mean a bull run is coming?

This week crypto media has given much attention to the impending golden cross between the 50-day and 100-day moving average which is expected to occur within the next few days. Data from Cointelegraph Markets shows this would be the seventh time the moving averages have converged in Bitcoin’s history.

Typically, traders interpret the cross between the moving averages as a bullish signal so as the maneuver comes closer to completion Bitcoin price could see an increase in buying pressure. This is possible more reason to expect the digital asset to break above $10K and test the $10,200 level in the short term.

It should be noted that a golden cross is not always followed by a strong rally. Take the most recent example of the February 19 golden cross which was followed by the catastrophic drop to $3,750 less than a month later on March 13.

BTC USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

For the short term, traders are watching to see if Bitcoin can breakout from the pennant and overtake the $9,900-$10,000 resistance zone. Volume permitting, a move above $10,071 clears a path for the digital asset to rally to $10,200.

Knocking out the 2020 high at $10,500 would place the price above the long term descending trendline from the $19,800 all-time high, a feat which many traders say would be confirmation of a new bullish cycle starting.

From a bearish point of view, repeated rejection at $9,900 and $10,000 increase the chance that the price will drop to major support levels. A drop below $9,600 could see the price drop to support at $8,900-$8,550 and below this $7,438-7,200.

By

Source: https://cointelegraph.com

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