Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance. Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.
The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.
Despite the crypto slump, banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin is massively undervalued. Maintaining its estimate of bitcoin’s fair value at $38,000, the bank today reiterated the assessment it gave the asset in February when the cryptocurrency was trading around $43,400. This price is approximately 28% higher than its current level of $29,757.
In a note to clients issued Wednesday, the bank has also stated that it is replacing real estate with digital, or crypto, assets as its preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds, citing “potential lagged repricing” in private equity, private debt and real estate. Alternative assets typically refer to investments that aren’t stocks, bonds or cash.
The appraisal is a nod of confidence to bitcoin, which is currently trading at less than half its all-time high of $68,721, and the broader category in general. In addition to rising interest rates and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the cryptocurrency market is grappling with the $50 billion collapse of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token LUNA. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently sits at $1.3 trillion, a dramatic decline from $3 trillion in November.
“The past month’s crypto market correction looks more like capitulation relative to last January/February and going forward we see upside for bitcoin and crypto markets more generally,” the bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in the report.
The strategists also believe that “the trajectory for VC funding would be crucial in helping the crypto market to avoid the long winter of 2018/2019”, which followed the initial coin offerings boom. Just today, Ethereum scaling startup Starkware raised $100 million at an $8 billion valuation and venture giant Andreessen Horowitz announced a $1.5 billion allotment for crypto investments as part of its larger $4.5 billion fund.
“Thus far there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post-Terra’s collapse. Of the $25 billion VC funding year-to-date, almost $4 billion came after Terra,” the strategists noted. “Our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted.”
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