Feeling Cold: Why Some People Feel Cold All The Time

Feel freezing cold all the time? Can’t seem to warm up? We explain why some of us feel colder than others, even when the heating is on full blast. With so many of us working from home, deciding when to turn on the central heating is a now a crucial part of the day. You get to 10am and you start to wonder why you’re still freezing… and if it’s too early to switch the dial on.

I’m freezing pretty much all the time, winter or not. I can’t feel my fingers in spring and I still need a jacket during July’s heatwave evenings. I won’t even begin to tell you how many layers I wear when I go skiing. Yet, my housemate can walk down the street in shorts in December, and others sweat the second they put a coat on.So why do some people just seem to feel the cold more than others – and what does it mean?

Finding out what is ‘normal’ when it comes to our temperature is pretty tricky though, explains Dr Clare Eglin from the Extreme Environments Laboratory in the Health and Exercise Science department at the University of Portsmouth. While our core temperature should ideally not change, “our perception of whether we find somewhere warm or cool is very individual and usually down to our skin temperature,” Dr Eglin says.

“This is what gives our body feedback, and lots of things can affect that from the clothes that we are wearing to the activities we are doing – and also the wind and dampness of the environment.” However, there are genetic and personal factors that can mean that two people, wearing the same thing, in the same environment feel different temperatures.

Why do some people feel colder than others?

Everyone’s body has a slightly different reaction to cold and some people feel cold more often than others, which is known as cold intolerance.

There are many factors  that contribute to this, including:

  • Overall body size can impact how cold you feel, as smaller people have less cells in their body that produce heat
  • People with higher levels of body fat and/or muscle mass have more insulation and a higher resting metabolic rate so burn energy faster
  • Being active not only warms the body immediately but can have a long-term effect on temperature regulation
  • Older people also tend to have a slower resting metabolic rate, so may feel the cold more

These factors do mean that gender is a big divider, as women are generally smaller than men and carry less muscle mass. We’ve all fought over the thermostat in the office (or central heating while at home) but the fact is that “the temperature deemed comfortable for most people is meant to be about 21 degrees. Actually, that’s ideal for a man in a suit, but women generally do better with a higher temperature,” says Dr Eglin.

Interestingly, we feel this disparity internally too. “Estrogen and progesterone, which change throughout the menstrual cycle, affect how quickly our blood vessels constrict to the cold. So depending what part of the menstrual cycle you’re in, you might find your hands and feet get colder, affecting your overall temperature perception,” says Dr Eglin.

Plus, your temperature perception can change throughout the day. “For instance, at six o’clock in the morning your core temperature is at its lowest, and from midday to mid-afternoon, it’s at its highest,” she adds.

Why do my hands feel cold?

Don’t panic if, like me, you have hands like ice cubes on a summer’s day. “It is a very typical thing, particularly for women, as our hands are really good for regulation,” says Dr Eglin. Our hands have a large surface area but a small volume and are filled with lots of blood vessels very close to the surface of the skin. “They’re very good for losing heat and so therefore, when you’re slightly cool, the blood flow shuts down,” she says.

While “peripheral temperature is generally nothing to worry about”, it can be a sign of Raynaud’s syndrome, an extreme response to cold or stress where arteries narrow to the point that fingers and toes turn white or blue and feel cold and numb – but circulation returns to normal when warm again.

Is it bad to be cold all the time?

Generally, being cold is simply down to our body type, and as long as we take precautions it’s not a bad thing. But if constant coldness is mixed with other symptoms it could be a sign of something more serious. For example, coldness paired with tiredness or dizziness could be a symptom of an iron or B12 deficiency, or even anaemia.

Constantly being cold coupled with hair loss, a change in your digestive system and weight gain could also be a sign of a low thyroid – when the gland stops producing enough thyroxine (a hormone which regulates your metabolism).

Ultimately, your body is pretty good at regulating itself, so trust what it’s telling you. “Our behaviour is the most important thing when it comes to keeping warm. I think quite often we underestimate the weather in the UK. You always hear people say ‘It’s not that bad, it’s not like we’re in the Arctic!’, but with the windchill and dampness it can be very cold. We don’t pay enough attention to that,” says Dr Eglin. So, bundle up when you’re feeling the chill.

By: 

Chloe Gray is the senior writer for stylist.co.uk’s fitness brand Strong Women. When she’s not writing or lifting weights, she’s most likely found practicing handstands, sipping a gin and tonic or eating peanut butter straight out of the jar (not all at the same time).

Source: Feeling cold: why some people feel cold all the time

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Related contents:

Wellbeing of Women, registered charity no. 239281. Charity Commission for England and Wales.

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Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: The Countess of Wessex discusses taboos around women’s health. YouTube.

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YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOnLnys5OZk&t=1045s. (help)https://www.wellbeingofwomen.org.uk/campaigns/menopausepledge.

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PrairieFood: The Solution To Climate Change Is In The Soil

A comparison of a test area treated with PrairieFood's micro-carbon additive on the left with ... [+]PrairieFood.com

This March, I introduced the term “Nature-Enhancing Solution” to describe technologies based on natural processes that have been capturing and productively using atmospheric carbon for hundreds of millions of years in one of the three interlocking “gears” – the terrestrial, marine, and geological cycles – that make up the full carbon cycle.

My Pi Day article was all about the smallest gear, the terrestrial cycle. One entrepreneur whose work I have featured in this column before – Robert Herrington, co-founder of Kansas-based PrairieFood – believes he and his team have discovered a Nature-Enhancing Solution to draw down excess atmospheric carbon dioxide while simultaneously restoring health to our planet and improving the quality of our food.

Let me underscore that last sentence because its impact is profound: Herrington believes he has found a way to solve the climate crisis while making our land richer and our food healthier. PrairieFood’s reactors pull in biological waste – manure, the slag left over after beer is brewed, and even treated sewage. This waste contains carbons in long, complex chains, which are difficult for soil-based organisms to consume.

The reactors shred those long carbon strands in a matter of seconds to create short carbon strands that are easily digestible by soil organisms. Those short strands, suspended in water, can then be sprayed onto fields using conventional equipment. The reason we put old coffee grounds and banana peels and fallen leaves into a compost pile is to take the long chains of carbon from biological sources and let nature (fungi, insects, worms, etc.) break them down into the black soil that we shovel into our gardens.

This natural process takes many seasons and yields a relatively small volume of short-carbon strands. PrairieFood’s Nature-Enhancing Solution makes the composting process much more efficient in time and volume. In other words, Herrington and his team have invented a device that acts like a composting time machine.When PrairieFood “slurry” is applied to agricultural fields, the organisms within the soil think they have stumbled upon an all-you-can-eat buffet.

They consume the carbon and provide “services” to the crops (e.g., “fixing” nitrogen – taking nitrogen out of the air and providing it to the plants). As the organisms give the plants more of what they need, the plants flourish. In return, the plants photosynthesize more actively – pulling in more carbon dioxide and changing it to sugars, some of which they give back to the soil organisms through their root systems.

This has the same sort of effect agriculturally as someone bringing more food and drink to a party. The soil-borne organisms love the extra food, and their populations swell to eat it all up. This starts a virtuous cycle by which the organisms help the plants, and the plants help the organisms, on and on.

The virtuous cycle creates a truly profound “multiplier effect” by which a little PrairieFood can have enormous impacts on the concentration of what is known as “Soil Organic Matter” (SOM) of which “Soil Organic Carbon” (SOC) forms a large part.

PrairieFood’s Amazing Results

Herrington and his co-founder, Dr. Griffin Roberts, have three years’ worth of field trials and commercial application of PrairieFood onto agricultural acreage. After some trial and error, they have found that applying 40 gallons of PrairieFood on an acre of cropland is sufficient to raise the amount of SOM by one percentage point over a single season.

That is about ten times the rate at which SOM is usually increased using organic fertilizers and other regenerative farming techniques. (Using conventional farming techniques actually decreases SOM concentrations – essentially desertifying croplands… more about that in an upcoming article.)

I started doing some back-of-the-envelope calculations about this multiplier effect and literally had to double and triple check my work. Dr. Roberts and I talked through the calculations and indeed, PrairieFood’s multiplier effect is off the charts – the addition of a very small amount of carbon (in the form of PrairieFood slurry) ends up generating a multiplier effect in the hundreds of thousands!

A comparison of seedling alfalfa plants. The plant on the left was grown with 40 gallons per acre of … [+] PrairieFood slurry; the plant on the right was grown with conventional fertilizer. Note the different in size of not only the above-ground part of the plants, but also the root system.

The reason I was so surprised is that I’m used to thinking about multiplier effects in the world of economics and finance that are in the single digits at most. But when dealing with microscopic organisms, there can be trillions of microbes in a scoopful of soil. As such, the number of microbes in an acre-foot of agricultural land (an acre-foot is the volume of soil in an acre to a depth of 1 foot) is phenomenally high. It is this astronomical number of organisms in the soil – all of which increase population exponentially given enough food – that creates the astounding multiplier effect.

Not all fields respond [with] such dramatic effect, [and] we have seen a range of responses. At times we have witnessed biological community shifts. This happens when nutrient food sources change in microbial populations. The shifts we see typically include [a] balancing of bacterial and [fungal] populations (most [agricultural] fields are bacterial dominated), and/or a rise in [the populations of small organisms] such as nematodes and Protozoa, etc. These higher [small organism population] levels…consume bacterial and [fungal] populations [and] play another significant role in nutrient cycling, both carbon and nitrogen…

“We have found where [farmers] that have applied manure and/or reduced [the practice of tilling, or turning up the soil] in the past, typically see the highest increase right away. We believe [that in these cases] the soil is primed for biological activity but is still stagnant/dormant, so when PrairieFood is applied, the nutrient cycling gets turned on right away, specifically in building SOM. Other fields which may have been…heavily reliant on [synthetic] mineral fertilizer, have a bit of adjusting at first.”

A Solution to the Climate Crisis

Herrington and Roberts have pulled together a thought experiment to illustrate the amazing potential of increasing SOM by a relatively small amount. “What if,” they ask “20% of agricultural land in our home state of Kansas could increase its SOM by one percentage point each year for 10 years?”

The answer to this question is amazing and offers great hope to the human civilization home team. An increase of SOM means a decrease in atmospheric CO2 levels – PrairieFood is enhancing the normal terrestrial carbon cycle. The increases posited would result in the draw-down of nearly 4 Gigatons of carbon!Widening the scope to a global level, the same increase in SOM in the 12.5 billion acres of land now used for agriculture would result in the draw-down of over 180 Gigatons of carbon.

For the average net addition to atmospheric carbon stores and the sources of change between 2009 and … [+] 2018, look at the graphic on the right. The red bar at the far right of the graph is the amount of carbon that was forced into the atmosphere in excess of what nature could absorb. 0.4 Gigatons on average.

To put this figure in context, according to a study done by the Earth System Science Data team at German-based Copernicus Publications, the average net increase in atmospheric carbon levels from 2009-2018 was 0.4 Gigatons per year. 180 Gigatons of atmospheric carbon drawdown would, in other words, remove 450 years’ worth of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide – enough to bring us back to the pre-Industrial Revolution average of 250 parts per million (and then some).

Other Benefits

If saving civilization from burning up in a furnace of its own making was not enough, applications of PrairieFood slurry to fields creates a lot of other benefits as well.

The PrairieFood-driven SOM increase is important in part because carbon-rich soil stores so much more water than carbon-poor soil does. This will make agricultural regions less dependent on irrigation and much more resilient to flood-producing downpours; it will also give someplace for water absorbed from increasing sea levels to go beside someone’s condo. This is such an important topic that I will take it up in a separate article.

Turning to the benefits to human health, over the last 70 years, there has been a marked trend for vegetables to become less nutritious. The only way that vegetables can become more nutritious is to have healthier soil, so increasing soil health may tie directly to better human health for anyone who eats vegetables or who eats animals that eat vegetables.

I have a lot more to say about the work PrairieFood is doing, so will continue in an upcoming article. For those who want to learn more about this homespun start-up with a mission to do nothing less than save the planet, PrairieFood is sponsoring a conference on November 14-15 in beautiful Pratt, Kansas. I attended last year and credit a quantum shift in my thinking about multiple issues facing humanity—climate change, biodiversity collapse, water management, agricultural productivity, and human health—to my conversation with farmers and ranchers at that event.

Herrington and Roberts know, as I know, that the Goldilocks environmental conditions that have allowed humans to build complex societies teeter on a knife’s edge. Our carbon emissions are pushing us over that edge and threatening the stability of our civilization, which is literally built on agricultural advances. PrairieFood offers a way to right that balance and pull us back from the edge.

Source: PrairieFood: The Solution To Climate Change Is In The Soil

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Can Resetting The Body Clock Help With Depression ?

“Epidemiological studies suggest that night-shift workers are at [approximately] 25% to 40% higher risk for mental illnesses, including depression and anxiety,” says Sarah Chellappa, a neuroscientist at the University of Cologne in Germany. Chellappa and her collaborators wanted to understand why. In both parts of the experiment, participants completed a computerized questionnaire about their mood several times a day.

When the researchers implemented the schedule switch, participants’ mood plummeted, and failed to improve during the four days they spent on the reversed schedule. The findings suggested that one reason for an increased risk of depression among shift workers is the misalignment of the body’s internal clock with the outside world.

Up to one in five people in industrialized countries are shift workers and the study participants included individuals who worked nights, as well as those who worked day shifts. People in both groups experienced a darkening of mood when their schedules were knocked out of whack — an indication that circadian misalignment has negative effects even on long-time shift workers..

“This is not just some academic question,” says Frank Scheer, a chronobiologist at Harvard Medical School in Boston and Chellappa’s collaborator on the study of circadian misalignment. “It’s something that’s of relevance to one of the most vulnerable populations” of workers.

Much of the public conversation around depression casts the disease as a chemical imbalance in the brain. But mood disorders have increased with modern lifestyles. There is growing evidence that circadian-rhythm disruptions and altered light exposure (with more artificial light at night and less natural daylight during the day) that accompany those lifestyles increase the risk of depression.

“Our modern environment is not really great for our circadian clock,” says Colleen McClung, a chronobiologist at the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania. “This is an ancient mechanism in our brains and our bodies that evolved at the very beginning of life on Earth, and now we have the ability to have electric lights and to fly across time zones and work late at night. And our biology has not caught up to that at all.”

Scientists have known for decades that sleep problems and circadian disruption are associated with depression. The cause-and-effect relationships between these factors have been difficult to tease apart. But, as the links become clearer, more attention is turning to non-pharmacological therapies that modulate sleep and circadian rhythms — sometimes known as chronotherapeutics — as treatments for depression. Some researchers are even investigating the possibility of delivering circadian-rhythm modulation in a pill. Others are exploring ways to tweak the details of modern life to reduce the risk of depression, particularly for shift workers.

Light and shadow

According to one study, more than 90% of people with depression have sleep problems, and sleeping too much or too little is one of the diagnostic criteria for depression. In the past decade, multiple studies have tracked people’s sleep habits and mental health over time and have shown that sleep difficulties at a certain time point increase the likelihood that a person will develop depression later in life. Poor sleep turns out to be not only a symptom but also a predictor.

Fortunately, psychologists have an arsenal of behavioural interventions that can improve sleep, says Aliza Werner-Seidler, a clinical psychologist at the Black Dog Institute at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. These interventions frequently help people to sleep better and can also ease depression symptoms. “If a client was sitting in front of me with significant sleep problems and significant mental-health problems, and didn’t have a preference on where to start, I would definitely be going down the sleep problem route,” says Werner-Seidler.

What’s more, sleep has a protective effect: improving sleep can help to prevent depression in adults. Werner-Seidler is now wrapping up a study to test whether a sleep intervention delivered through an app can stave off the development of symptoms of mental illness in adolescents aged 12–16 with sleep problems; preliminary results are promising, she says. She is working with more than 20 schools in New South Wales to help improve student sleep.

Another non-pharmaceutical approach to treating depression involves the manipulation of light, one of the strongest influences on the circadian system that keeps the body’s internal clock in synch with the environment. Studies over the past decade have shown that light also has a direct antidepressant effect, through the stimulation of mood-regulating brain centres.

Spending 30 minutes in front of a source of bright, full-spectrum light in the morning is well established as a treatment for seasonal depression. But the use of light therapy for other forms of depression has been slower to develop, says Christian Cajochen, head of the Centre for Chronobiology at the University of Basel in Switzerland.

Early studies of light therapy for non-seasonal depression reported mixed results — but in the past decade, researchers have begun to take a second look. A 2016 study showed that the antidepressant fluoxetine plus bright light therapy provides more consistent relief from non-seasonal depression than either treatment alone. And in July, a group of researchers including Cajochen reported results from a study of people with perinatal depression that suggest light therapy can help these patients as well. Although best used in conjunction with pharmaceutical antidepressants, light is “as potent as antidepressant drugs”, Cajochen says.

Circadian target

In some cases, a more radical overhaul of the body’s circadian rhythms might be necessary to treat depression. In the early 1970s, researchers realized that keeping people with depression awake for 36 hours often provided immediate relief of their symptoms. As a research assistant on a ward for people with severe depression in 1975 at the US National Institute of Mental Health in Bethesda, Maryland, Blynn Bunney, now a biological psychologist at the University of California, Irvine, recalls witnessing effects of sleep deprivation that were nothing short of “miraculous”.

But such patients generally saw their symptoms return after a good night’s sleep — a big problem for actually implementing sleep deprivation as a treatment for depression. Later studies showed that this relapse could be prevented by combining sleep deprivation with light therapy and what researchers call sleep phase advance — essentially, going to bed earlier. In a 2009 study, a group including Bunney showed that half of people who underwent this routine remained in remission after seven weeks.

Sleep deprivation, also known as wake therapy, is now used in some European countries. Although the intervention is brief, it’s intense — staff must work to keep people awake — and until recently it has been studied mostly in in-patient settings. But a pilot study published in 2021 showed that the approach could be adapted to help people who are not hospitalized, raising the prospect of much wider use.

The increased focus on the importance of the circadian system in depression has also spurred a search for drugs that can alter or strengthen circadian rhythms. Such medication could be used as an alternative or add-on treatment to conventional antidepressants or as mood stabilizers in bipolar disorder — a condition characterized by extreme mood swings.

Two of the most important existing treatments for bipolar disorder, lithium and valproic acid, both affect circadian rhythms, says McClung, who has studied other circadian-modulating compounds in a mouse model of bipolar disorder. And in mouse brains, sleep deprivation and the rapid-acting antidepressant ketamine both cause similar changes in the expression of circadian-related genes. This provides a hint that the circadian system might be especially relevant to the search for compounds that can provide fast relief from depression symptoms.

But drugs that can get into the brain without causing other side effects have proved elusive. For example, agomelatine, a compound related to melatonin, a hormone involved in the sleep–wake cycle, is approved as an add-on treatment for depression in Europe and Australia. But phase III trials in the United States showed weak results and possible liver toxicity.

Lifestyle changes

If elements of modern life increase the risk for depression, what about tweaking modern life to be friendlier to mental health? Such changes could help shift workers and others alike. For example, Chellappa and Scheer have unpublished data showing that eating in synch with typical mealtimes, even if a person’s sleep schedule is altered, can prevent the adverse effects of circadian disruption on mood.

This might be a tricky strategy for shift workers to implement, given all the other constraints on their schedules. But it could be used to help fight jet lag and other circadian disruptions that are prevalent in modern life, the researchers say.

Another approach might be to redesign evening lighting in homes or night-shift lighting in factories so that it doesn’t affect the body’s internal clock. The circadian system responds most strongly to blue light at wavelengths of around 480 nanometres. Taking advantage of LED technology, researchers can create light spectra that exclude these wavelengths but otherwise look normal to the human eye.

However, it’s much easier to implement such lighting on a flat computer screen or electronic display than in overhead or ambient lighting, says Manuel Spitschan, a visual neuroscientist and chronobiologist at the Max Planck Institute in Tübingen, Germany. Using room lighting that makes a blank piece of paper appear reassuringly white might make a person’s skin look grey — and that uncanny appearance of the world might have its own psychological effects.

Excluding those doing shift work, many people might be able to moderate the mood-altering effects of modern life on the circadian system by changing their behaviour rather than changing technology, Spitschan argues. He was part of an international team of scientists that earlier this year released recommendations for better ‘light hygiene’, such as getting outside during the morning and limiting artificial light in the hours before bed in the evening.

Refining such recommendations will require studies that reflect the light exposures people actually experience in their everyday lives, rather than the extreme conditions of lab studies, Spitschan cautions. Still, it’s an empowering thought: “We’re not lab rats,” he says. “We don’t just sit in a shoebox and someone else changes the lighting.”

By: Sarah DeWeerdt

Source: Can resetting the body clock help with depression?

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How The Yield Curve Forecasts Recession Risks

The yield curve predicts U.S. recessions remarkably well. In March, the yield curve hinted at a U.S. recession. Today, the inversion is broadening as the Fed hikes rates. A U.S. recession may coming. Here’s how the yield curve works and why it matters to financial markets.

Economists aren’t prized for their forecasting skills. The yield curve, on the other hand, has a strong track record in calling recessions. The term structure of interest rates, which is the difference between short and long-bond yields, forecasts recessions relatively accurately. The yield curve has got a recession forecast wrong just once in the past 40 years according to Nicholas Burgess of Oxford University. That’s impressive.

The yield curve is also a leading indicator of recessions since it calls recessions up to 18 months before they occur. So, the yield curve is historically among the best tools for forecasting a recession. When the yield curve inverts, you should worry. Unfortunately, now’s the time to worry. Worse, if the Fed stays on course, that inversion will increase in depth and breadth.

The yield curve does provide a mass of information, changing minute by minute. That can be confusing, so the New York Fed researched how best to interpret it in this paper. They found that the spread between three-month and ten-year yields was most predictive of recessions, though it’s a pretty close call.

Ideally, in the researchers’ view, the spread should have a negative monthly average to predict a recession rather than just a temporary dip. It also appears that deeper inversion may make the signal more powerful. Not everyone agrees with that view entirely, but most take the view that short rates rising above long rates does not bode well for the U.S. economy and deeper and longer inversion can make the signal more robust.

 Recent research from the U.S. Treasury finds that foreign yield curves have forecasting power too for U.S. recessions, so if other yield curves are inverted that can reinforce the signal from the U.S. yield curve being inverted.

Currently, the Canadian yield curve shows some inversion, but yield curves in Japan and Europe are generally not inverted. However, many central banks are expected to raise rates. That would raise the short end of the curve, creating inversion given the term structure of interest rates is quite flat globally. So the international picture may worsen.

Like any good forecast there’s also two clear reasons why the yield curve works. Knowing this is helpful. It means the forecast is less likely to be the result of accidental number crunching.

First when short term yields rise above longer term yields, that’s a big signal to banks. With an inverted yield curve, banks can make more profits from short-term lending, than from longer-term lending. That’s unusual. It can mean pulling back on financing bigger, longer term projects such as new factories and other big investment projects. That sort of pull-back in investments that help economic growth is exactly what we see in many recessions.

Secondly, the Fed raising rates is generally what pushes up shorter term interest rates. They often do this late in the economic cycle, when the economy may be starting to overheat. If we’re late in the economic cycle, that too can mean a recession is not far off. That’s exactly what’s happening now. High inflation and very low unemployment may be signs the U.S. economy is stretched currently.

Of course, we’re currently seeing one of the most aggressive patterns of rate hikes from the Fed in decades. Interestingly, the Fed knows about the yield curve’s forecasting power too. There’s a chance they ease off on hikes precisely because of the yield curve’s inversion. They don’t want a recession either. However, for the time being rampant inflation appears the more pressing concern for the Fed. It’s not an easy call, but the Fed may tolerate a recession to tame inflation.

You can see the latest U.S. Treasury yield curve data here. Currently it’s inverted from six-month out to ten-year maturities. That’s relatively broad inversion, and a bad sign for growth. In terms of the positives, the yield curve is fairly flat right now, not deeply inverted. Plus that all-important metric of 10-year less 3-month maturities is not inverted at the time of writing.

However, we can be reasonably confident inversion at the short end is coming soon if the Fed continues to hike short term rates as planned. Markets currently see the Fed raising rates around 2% over the rest of 2022, that’s almost certainly going create inversion of the yield curve when comparing three month to ten year yields. Of course, this assumes the long-end of rates doesn’t move up much, but unless long-term inflation fears really take hold, that seems unlikely.

That the yield curve is signaling recession is unsurprising. Other metrics agree. There’s a long list including: the current bear market in stocks; increasing talk about recessions; concerns about corporate earnings; early signs of weakness in housing; a softening jobs markets; together with the observation that U.S. economic growth was negative Q1. All signaling a pending recession. A recession may even already be here.

However, as an investor, it is important to remember that much of this may be priced in to markets. The very reason for weak stock returns over 2022 so far, may be the markets starting to adjust to a coming recession, or at least a reasonably mild one.

The severity of any future recession is important. Recession conjures up memories of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8 and the pandemic recession of 2020. As the two most recent recessions, that’s understandable. Remember though, those were both unusually severe recessions. So even if a recession is on the horizon, it may not be quite so disruptive as the two most recent ones.

Lastly, as of right now, the key metric of three-month yields hasn’t inverted below the 10-year yield. Many suspect that is the most robust recession flag. There’s still some hope we could dodge the bullet. However, if the Fed remain on their current aggressive rate trajectory, we may see that invert in later this year.

Simon is the author of Digital Wealth and Strategic Project Portfolio Management. He has previously served as Chief Investment Officer at Moola

Source: How The Yield Curve Forecasts Recession Risks

Related contents:

White House Changing Definition of Recession, Will Take New ‘Holistic’ Look at the Situation Independent Journal Review

12:09 Sun, 24 JulUS Economy Business (US) Economy
Europe’s central bank raises rates Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

11:31 Fri, 22 JulEuropean Central Bank Business (US) Interest Rates

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