Global Covid-19 Infections Surpass 40 Million, 1.1 Million Deaths

The number of new Covid-19 infections around the world continues to grow, passing the grim milestone of 40 million on Monday morning as much of Europe and the U.S. struggle to contain a new surge in infections, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.   

Key Facts

The U.S. leads the world with over 8 million confirmed cases, with nearly 220,000 deaths.

India and Brazil have also been hit hard by the novel coronavirus, with 7.6 million and 5.2 million cases and around 150,000 and 115,000 deaths respectively. 

It took just one month for cases around the world to swell from 30 million to 40 million. 

Key Facts: 

This number is likely to be a gross underestimation of Covid-19 cases around the world, relying on official data of confirmed cases. Not all those who have caught Covid-19 will be tested, especially if symptoms are mild. Test availability is inconsistent around the world, further hindering accurate reporting of cases. Some countries have been accused of deliberately lying and deceiving about the number of cases they’ve had. 

Further Reading

Global coronavirus cases hit 40 million as second wave gathers pace (CNBC)

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Nearly 30 Million People Have Contracted Covid-19 Around The World (Forbes)

Global coronavirus cases surpass the 40 million milestone (Reuters)

Russia’s covid-19 outbreak is far worse than the Kremlin admits (Economist)

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Robert Hart

 Robert Hart

I am a London-based reporter for Forbes covering breaking news. Previously, I have worked as a reporter for a specialist legal publication covering big data and as a freelance journalist and policy analyst covering science, tech and health. I have a master’s degree in Biological Natural Sciences and a master’s degree in the History and Philosophy of Science from the University of Cambridge. Follow me on Twitter @theroberthart or email me at rhart@forbes.com 

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Our top story this morning. Global COVID-19 infections have now surpassed 40 million,… after seeing an increase of one million over the last three days alone. Lee Seung-jae reports. COVID-19 has now infected over 40 million people worldwide,… since the first cases were identified in Wuhan, China last December. The death toll currently stands at over 1-point-1 million,… with a mortality rate of 2-point-8 percent. With an average of one million cases being reported every three days,…

The world is seeing some of the biggest single day jumps since the initial outbreak,… with numbers exceeding 400-thousand in a single day on Friday,… for the first time ever. Among the worst hit countries in the world,… the U.S. remains at the top with over 8-point-3 million cases and 224-thousand deaths. The worst may yet to come for the U.S.,… as the nation’s top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci warned last week,… that the country is “facing a whole lot of trouble” heading into the winter months. According to data by Johns Hopkins University,…

Average daily cases were already up by more than 5-percent in 36 states and the District of Columbia. Europe continues to see its infections reach all-time highs,… including Italy,…which registered 10-thousand-925 cases on Saturday,… surpassing its previous record posted the day before. France and Germany also reported record daily cases on Saturday,… as new restrictions went into effect. France reported over 32-thousand cases in a 24 hour span,… as the country deployed 12-thousand extra police officers to enforce their latest quarantine measures. The continent is seeing the fastest increase in COVID-19 cases,… and has so far seen over 6-point-7 million cases and more than 237-thousand deaths. Lee Seung-jae, Arirang News. 2020-10-19, 07:00 (KST) #COVID19 #US #Europe 📣 Arirang News(Facebook) : https://www.facebook.com/arirangtvnews 📣 Arirang News(Twitter) : https://twitter.com/arirangtvnews 📣 News Center(YouTube) : https://www.youtube.com/c/NEWSCENTER_…

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Final Results In Remdesivir Trial Confirm It Shortens Length Of Covid-19 Cases, But Has Small Impact On Death

Topline

A long-awaited study of Gilead Sciences’ experimental antiviral remdesivir published Thursday in the New England Journal Of Medicine shows that patients with Covid-19 who took the drug recovered from the disease faster compared to patients who took a placebo.

Key Facts

The trial, which was led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), was double-blinded and involved more than 1,000 Covid-19 patients from around the world.

The trial  found that hospitalized patients who took remdesivir recovered from the disease in 10 days on average, five days faster than those taking a placebo.

The greatest benefit occurred when remdesivir was given to patients early in their illness who were hospitalized and receiving supplemental  oxygen but not yet on a ventilator.

The researchers also say that the data suggests that remdesivir may prevent patients from getting more severely ill and needing more oxygen or ventilation.

While the study itself didn’t find a statistically significant reduction in death for patients taking remdesivir, a later analysis suggested a small benefit, finding that 11.4% of patients who took remdesivir died by day 29, compared to 15.2% of patients that took the placebo.

Key Background

While there is no drug approved yet to treat Covid-19, remdesivir has been a frontrunner for months. In May, after preliminary study results showed that it helped patients recover from Covid-19 four days faster than a placebo, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for remdesivir (brand name Veklury) to be used in hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19. In August the agency expanded the recommendation and said that remdesivir could be used for any patients hospitalized with Covid-19, no matter the severity of their symptoms. Last week, President Trump’s doctors announced that the president received infusions of remdesivir after his diagnosis of Covid-19. There is currently a global shortage of the drug, and Gilead has announced plans to manufacture 2 million treatment courses of the drug by December. 

Quote

“For patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19, the importance of speeding up recovery by five to seven days cannot be underestimated,” wrote Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day in an open letter published Thursday. “This represents a significant benefit in a disease where every day counts.”

Chief Critic

Overall, the final report does not change the preliminary conclusions,” wrote Joshua Niforatos, an emergency room physician at Johns Hopkins Hospital. “Based on the research to-date, for critically ill covid-19 patients, remdesivir is unlikely to change survival or the need for mechanical ventilation. The only drug to-date that has shown to improve mortality remains dexamethasone, a generic and inexpensive drug.”

What’s Next

Gilead will likely use the results of this study to apply for official FDA approval of remdesivir, which has never been approved by the agency before. If the FDA accepts the company’s application, it would be the first approval of a drug specifically to treat Covid-19.

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Leah Rosenbaum

Leah Rosenbaum

I am the assistant editor of healthcare and science at Forbes. I graduated from UC Berkeley with a Master’s of Journalism and a Master’s of Public Health, with a specialty in infectious disease. Before that, I was at Johns Hopkins University where I double-majored in writing and public health. I’ve written articles for STAT, Vice, Science News, HealthNewsReview and other publications. At Forbes, I cover all aspects of health, from disease outbreaks to biotech startups.

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We regret that the WHO prematurely posted information regarding the study, which has since been removed. The investigators in this study did not provide permission for publication of results,” a Gilead spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC. “Furthermore, we believe the post included inappropriate characterizations of the study. Importantly, because this study was terminated early due to low enrollment, it was underpowered to enable statistically meaningful conclusions,” according to Gilead. “As such, the study results are inconclusive, though trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease.” For more coronavirus live updates: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/coron… For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2JdMwO7 » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: https://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC

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Hospital Beds Filling, Bars Closing With Nearly All Threshold

Countries across Europe are imposing new restrictions as the second wave of coronavirus infections that’s swept across the region since summer-time has recently taken a turn for the worse—seeping into older, more vulnerable populations and driving a surge in hospitalizations.

Key Facts

All but three European countries—Cyprus, Finland and Norway—have reached the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s (ECDC) coronavirus alarm threshold, which designates countries reporting above 20 cases per 100,000 residents on a seven-day average at high risk.

The ECDC’s most recent report, published last Thursday, also noted the rising death rate in Europe and identified sustained case increases in 27 countries, many of which are reporting more new infections than in the spring (though better detection methods play a factor). 

Among the countries faring the worst, the Czech Republic, reporting 22,179 cases and 158 deaths in the past week, enacted a second state of emergency Monday, while Madrid has entered a partial lockdown, barring non-essential travel to and from the city, as Spain reports nearly 10,000 new cases per day. 

France’s capital, which moved into a state of “maximum alert” on Monday as 30% of emergency beds in hospitals filled, leading to the closure of Paris bars and cafés, may be on the verge of tougher restrictions as the number of Covid-19 patients in emergency beds jumped to 40% on Tuesday. 

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Brussels, which has overtaken Paris and trails only Madrid in terms of infections per capita among Europe’s major cities, also announced it is shutting down bars and cafés in the city for a month on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, a slew of other countries, including Ireland and Scotland, are mulling tough new restrictions.

Key Background 

While France, Spain, the Czech Republic and the U.K. are reporting higher numbers of new cases on average than they were during the peak of their spring outbreaks, the crisis isn’t as severe as it was through March and April. However, European authorities are concerned that rising infections, which have begun to spill into older populations, could soon bring hospitals back to the brink.

Crucial Quote 

“The enemy hasn’t been defeated yet,” said Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte last weekend, calling on Italians to be careful as to avoid a return to stricter pandemic measures. Italy, once the centre of the coronavirus pandemic, was the first country in the world to activate a nationwide lockdown in March.

Further Reading 

“British universities re-open with students locked-down and forced to care for infected classmates” (The New York Times) 

“As Second Covid-19 Wave Rolls Through Europe, Deaths and Hospitalizations Rise” (The Wall Street Journal)

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Jemima McEvoy

I’m a British-born reporter covering breaking news for Forbes.

 Jemima McEvoy

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There are mounting concerns the pandemic will cause a global recession. It has been another torrid day on the markets. Stocks plunged around the world, despite a coordinated effort by central banks to protect growth and jobs. Al Jazeera’s Neave Barker begins our coverage with a look at the situation around Europe. –

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Hindsight: Unnecessary Recession? Foresight: “Deep & Permanent Damage” (Bernanke & Yellen)

The number the media, and apparently much of the population, fixates on daily is the new virus case count in the U.S.  While cases have clearly skyrocketed, deaths from the virus continue to fall. Perhaps the case counts are a function of the level of testing. First Trust’s economists recently published some interesting statistics:

  • on Monday, July 6th, deaths were -86% below the Monday, April 20th peak.;
  • hospital capacity, nationwide, still appears manageable – albeit some specific locations may have hospital capacity issues;
  • The skew of deaths toward the elderly is also significant. The total percentage of deaths/confirmed cases (138,782/3,630,587 as of July 18) is 3.8%. Of those that have died, 33.2% were 85 years old or older, and 92.5% of deaths are in people over 55 years old.

Consider that confirmed cases represent just over 1.1% of the total U.S. population, but field tests are now showing that up to 20% of those tested are positive for the virus. While there are issues in assuming that 20% of the population have already had the virus (some think that there are a huge number of asymptomatic carriers), if that is anywhere close to reality, then the overall probability of dying from the virus is 0.04% (.0004), and if one is under 55 years old (most of the working aged population), then that probability falls to .003% (.00003, i.e. 3 per 100,000 who contract it). Even within this younger demographic, only those with compromised immune systems have any real risk. The 20% assumption may be high (there are reasons people get tested), but even at 10%, the younger demographic has little death risk.

The Economy

Market observers are now using high frequency data markers to gauge the state of the economy. Sometimes, even small deviations from expectations in the economic data results in outsized financial market reaction.

  • Retail Sales: While falling -5.5% from the week ending July 4th (holiday week) to the week ending July 11th, retail sales were still +4.7% higher than the same 2019 week, and up +7.5% M/M in June (May was still in the depths of business closures). On the surface, this looks promising. But, let’s not forget that consumer income has not yet been impacted because of government money drops. As discussed below, there are still 32 million people unemployed, and there will likely be a large negative impact when government largesse returns to “normal” (perhaps after the elections);
  • Hotel Occupancy (week ended June 27th): While up from the April lows, there is only 46.2% occupancy vs. 84.9% a year earlier;
  • Open Table (July 13): this indicator shows a -66.2% Y/Y change. The M/M change was -1.2%; looks like the daily media drumbeat on new cases has had an impact;
  • TSA checkpoint data (July 13): This shows the number of air travelers, and it was up 5.2% W/W and 61.7% M/M. But, because the denominator is so small, the percentage changes become almost meaningless. Y/Y traffic is still off -73.2%. No wonder United and American Airlines AAL are throwing in the towel and have pre-announced significant layoffs.

The conclusion here is that, after an initial pop, and especially with renewed business restrictions, the Recovery, at best, has flattened.

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Employment

As I have maintained in this blog, employment is the most important gauge of the health of the economy. The more reliable state data from the traditional unemployment insurance programs is still showing significant Initial Claims each week (1.300 million the week of July 11th). There now is almost no downward slope, as the prior two weeks were 1.310 and 1.413 million. And, while Total Claims, as shown in the table and chart (sum of Initial Claims and Continuing Claims) have declined eight weeks in a row and in nine of the last ten, the chart shows the deceleration in the rate of decline in unemployment.

When the less reliable data on the temporary PUA program (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance – via the CARES Act) (less reliable because not all states are reporting and some states report more detail than others) is added to the state data, as shown in the next table and chart, one gets a flavor of just how deep the unemployment hole has become. Worse, beginning in June, total unemployment (or at least the claims) began to rise again. One of the emerging trends is that large companies, which had been hoping for the promised “V”-shaped recovery, have now given up and will start laying off. United and American Airlines are good examples. In addition, the approaching end of PPP may have a similar effect for mid-size and small businesses that are still alive.

Debt – The Fed Continues to be Nervous

For the banks, defaults haven’t yet become a huge issue due to forbearance. That will soon be ending. In the past week, the major banks reported Q2 results, and all significantly bolstered their loan loss reserves. In May, more than 100 million debt payments were missed. The consumer loan industry says it takes 180 days to deal with and resolve delinquent accounts, so we really won’t know the extent of consumer issues until Q4/Q1. I suspect the same is true of commercial loans.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to worry. In recent Congressional testimony, former Fed Chairs Bernanke and Yellen warned that “the U.S. economy is facing deep and permanent economic damage” (i.e., certainly no “V,” and perhaps no “W”) without further significant fiscal and monetary stimulus including the expanded unemployment benefit program and providing aid to state and local governments.  In fact, Yellen worried out loud about probable large layoffs at the state and local levels without such aid. Bernanke, echoing those famous words of former ECB President Mario Draghi, said Congress and the Fed should do “whatever it takes.”

The Fed’s Beige Book, a report on local conditions by the 12 Regional Federal Reserve Banks (published eight times per year) emphasized “uncertainty” emanating from businesses in their purview. Here are some excerpts:

“Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity moved up, but from a very low level;”

“Outlooks remained highly uncertain…;”

“Employment increased on net in almost all Districts…However, payrolls in all Districts were well below pre-pandemic levels. Job turnover rates remained high with contacts across Districts reporting new layoffs;”

“Contacts in nearly every District noted difficulty in bringing back workers because of health and safety concerns, childcare needs, and generous unemployment insurance benefits.”

Bankruptcies and Debt Concerns

As I’ve shown over the past few blogs, bankruptcies continue to trend up. It will take years for the damage done to the economy by the lockdowns to be recouped.  The lives and livelihoods of millions of citizens have been transformed (many ruined) overnight.

We are just beginning to see the early symptoms of debt destruction, and we are going to see the impacts of such debt destruction on many of the traditional sectors, including the financial ones. These impacts will have long lasting effects. Meanwhile, the Fed has convinced market participants that there is no risk, and that the Fed has their backs. The result is that yield differentials between safe and highly risky assets have all but disappeared – at least their spreads have come way in. In the table and chart below, bankruptcies (from the Bloomberg database) are trending up.

The implications for interest rates are clear. More and more debt (corporate America including the zombies and the federal government) means that future interest rates can’t rise lest interest payment burdens become unmanageable and turn the economy south.

Conclusions

  • With hindsight, the probability of death from the virus for most of the working aged population appears remote (minuscule);
  • The economy hit zero in April, and the May/June re-openings led to the early up-leg of a “v,” but this nascent recovery now appears to be stalling as governors decide to re-restrict businesses;
  • Employment numbers, too, are stalling. Companies are beginning to give up hope for a rapid recovery and are setting up for a long period of economic softness (i.e., they are starting to think about major layoffs);
  • Debt issues are just beginning to emerge and will come front and center in Q4/Q1. The Fed sees this as do former Chairs Bernanke and Yellen.
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Robert Barone, Ph.D. is a Georgetown educated economist. He is a financial advisor at Four Star Wealth Advisors. http://www.fourstarwealth.com.

Source: https://www.forbes.com

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Autopsies Now Say California⁠—Not Washington State⁠—Has First Known U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

The medical examiner in Santa Clara, California, confirmed Tuesday that two COVID-19 deaths happened there in early February, becoming the country’s first known coronavirus fatalities⁠—and possibly providing clues about how early the virus was spreading in the U.S.

KEY FACTS

The Los Angeles Times reported that two people in Santa Clara County infected with coronavirus died ⁠on February 6 and February 17⁠; an additional COVID-19 death was confirmed March 6.

Tissue samples were used to determine the Santa Clara County deaths were from coronavirus, and were confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control, the New York Times reported.

Prior to Tuesday, the first report of a U.S. COVID-19 fatality was on February 29 in Kirkland, Washington, and officials later determined two people who died in the area February 26 also had the virus.

The two California residents who died in February did not have travel histories that would have exposed them to COVID-19, according to the New York Times.

The newly confirmed deaths suggest COVID-19 was spreading earlier than was previously believed—likely “back in December,” Santa Clara County executive and medical doctor Jeffrey V. Smith told the Los Angeles Times.

“This wasn’t recognized because we were having a severe flu season,” Smith said, adding, “Symptoms are very much like the flu. If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn’t really notice. You didn’t even go to the doctor.”

Crucial quote

“These three individuals died at home during a time when very limited testing was available only through the [CDC]. Testing criteria set by the CDC at the time restricted testing to only individuals with a known travel history and who sought medical care for specific symptoms,” said the Santa Clara County medical examiner in a statement. “As the Medical Examiner-Coroner continues to carefully investigate deaths throughout the county, we anticipate additional deaths from COVID-19 will be identified.”

What we don’t know

Why it took months to confirm the Santa Clara County deaths were caused by COVID-19, the New York Times reported.

Key background

Gene sequencing conducted in Washington State showed that the coronavirus might have been spreading there for weeks, with January 20 being the date for the state’s first confirmed case, according to a March 1, 2020, New York Times report. U.S. officials determined cases in travelers from abroad that same month, but did not confirm community spread of COVID-19 for weeks. Other possible indications that the virus was spreading earlier than was believed include the Grand Princess cruise ship that set sail from San Francisco, California on February 11, with passengers that later displayed symptoms. Researchers also believe that the virus was spreading in New York by the middle of February.

Further reading

Autopsies reveal first confirmed U.S. coronavirus deaths occurred in Bay Area in February (Los Angeles Times)

Coronavirus Death in California Came Weeks Before First Known U.S. Death (New York Times)

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show (New York Times)

4 More Die From Coronavirus In Washington State, Bringing U.S. Toll To 6 (Forbes)

Another Cruise Ship Is Possibly Linked To Coronavirus⁠—Including California’s First Death (Forbes)

Forbes’ Time Line Of The Coronavirus (Forbes)

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus

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I’m a New York-based journalist covering breaking news at Forbes. I hold a master’s degree from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism. Previous bylines: Gotham Gazette, Bklyner, Thrillist, Task & Purpose and xoJane.

Source: Autopsies Now Say California⁠—Not Washington State⁠—Has First Known U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

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Jennifer Johnson reports on the grim new milestone in the United States which has now surpassed Italy’s staggering death toll. Plus Redmond Shannon reports on the growing cases of COVID-19 in developing nations, and how third world countries are struggling to prepare for the pandemic. MORE: https://globalnews.ca/news/6806727/co… For more info, please go to http://www.globalnews.ca Subscribe to Global News Channel HERE: http://bit.ly/20fcXDc Like Global News on Facebook HERE: http://bit.ly/255GMJQ Follow Global News on Twitter HERE: http://bit.ly/1Toz8mt Follow Global News on Instagram HERE: https://bit.ly/2QZaZIB #CoronavirusOutbreak #GlobalNews #COVID-19Outbreak
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