Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

Existing home sales fell for the seventh straight month in August as rising interest rates continued to sideline potential home buyers, and prices are finally starting to fall from record highs as experts project that the next few months could help ease the housing sector’s long-standing affordability crisis.

Existing home sales ticked down 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August, down from 6 million one year ago after declines across the U.S., according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.

In a statement, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called the housing sector “most sensitive to” the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and said the softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates, which peaked at 6% last week and have driven up the cost of monthly payments on new mortgages by more than 55%, an average of hundreds of dollars each month.

Amid the falling demand, the median existing home price has tumbled from a record high of $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August, down for a second straight month to the lowest level since March after breaking a five-month streak of gains.

The 7.7% yearly uptick in August home prices was the slowest year-over-year increase since June 2020, and NAR projects the median existing home price could fall more than 5% to $380,000 by the end of this year.

Others are eyeing steeper losses: In a Wednesday note, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said he expects a “sustained decline” in the sector through next spring, with prices falling as much as 20% from their peak by the middle of next year and in time helping rent inflation, which climbed 7% year over year last month, come down next year.

“Sales lag mortgage applications, which continue to fall and point to further significant declines,” Shepherdson said, predicting sales are on course to drop by another 10% or so within the next two months and adding that “even that might not be the low,” depending on what happens to mortgage rates over the next few weeks.

“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Yun says. “Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”

On Wednesday, real estate brokerage Redfin reported that the ten regions where housing is cooling the fastest are almost all either costly West Coast markets, or places that drew scores of relocating home buyers during the pandemic and became significantly less affordable. They include San Jose, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Denver.

“Housing, in short, is in recession, and everything connected to housing either is in recession now or soon will be, but the rest of the economy is not in recession because a regular housing downturn is not enough to crash the 90% of [gross domestic product] that is not housing,” says Shepherdson.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

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Fall has arrived and if you think your home needs a little upgrading after the summer, you’re probably right. But while most people associate fall decor with pumpkin spice, the color brown, tacky statement pillows, or home fragrances that smell like food, a fall refresh doesn’t have to mean any of this. We’re not quite ready for the holidays, so there is plenty of time to focus on spaces such as bedrooms, kitchens, and bathrooms by adding fresh bedding, chic accessories and luxurious home fragrances. From new launches to old favorites, here’s everything your home needs right now.

Still working from home? Say farewell to ordinary office chairs. Why not upgrade your comfort and style at the same time with a chic office chair from Elizabeth Sutton Collection? After all, you need to sit somewhere. With several styles available and a choice of gold or silver casters, and a white or black frame, these add a true pop of fun to any workspace.

Trying to manifest more this fall? It’s easy when you’re burning a Jill & Ally The Elements Crystal Candle. The brand is owned by everyone’s favorite New York Housewife Jill Zarin. Choose from blue agate (water), red agate (fire), green fluorite (earth), or clear quartz (air). Whether you use this candle as part of a manifestation ritual or just as decor, it’s a great way to add color or change the vibe of a room instantly. When the candle is finished burning, keep the crystal.

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth, this cool yet stylish portrait is the perfect way to pay tribute to Her Majesty in a living room, bedroom, or even dining room. Available in two sizes, it has been selling like hot crumpets. If you’re the only queen in your home, Cheery Designs has a great selection of unique pieces that might be more suitable.

Got too much sand in your sheets this summer? Treat yourself to something new. Boll and Branch recently launched a super luxurious Reserve Sheet Set. Made from the longest staple 100 percent organic cotton available, it’s impossible to go wrong with these sheets. Get ready for the silk-like feel to help lull you to sleep.

Those with more modern tastes will appreciate The Citizenry’s Stone Washed Linen Sheet Set. Available in a variety of colors and styles, including White, Olive, and Gingham, these sheets are a great way to warm up a modern bedroom. Don’t forget a linen bathrobe to match.

Launching on September 21st, Weezie Shower Curtains are the ideal bathroom accessory in a traditional to contemporary style bathroom. They complement the brand’s signature monogrammed towels instantly elevating the space to new levels of sophistication. Choose from two sizes and blue or grey scalloped edges.

However, if it is your kitchen that needs a little something extra, the L’Avant Collective Marble Dish Soap Kitchen Counter Tray will automatically boost your sink space. Made from the finest white Banswara marble and featuring brass accent details, it’s a chic way to display all of your favorite L’Avant Collective products.

Jenni Kayne’s cookware collaboration with Staub couldn’t possibly be any more stylish if the designer tried. Made in France, the White Truffle hue is the epitome of magnifique. Choose from an Oval Gratin or a Round Cocotte dish in a choice of two sizes. Each one has an exclusive nickel steel knob. It’s the perfect marriage of understated and jaw-dropping.

This topaz tumbler from curated online marketplace Berner and Co is a sleek way to serve everything from sparkling water to cool cocktails at your Fall soiree (or just to make any meal feel a bit more festive). Take your tablescape to brand new heights with these fabulous drinking vessels.

Speaking of tablescapes, there’s no easier way to create one than with The Bouqs new fall flower collection. Whether you prefer white arrangements, something with crimsons and oranges, or perhaps plants instead of flowers, there is something for every aesthetic. Better yet, with a subscription, you can send a monthly arrangement to yourself or to someone else and change it up each month.

But if you want to buy an arrangement and have it last for up to a year, it’s impossible to go wrong with Venus Et Fleur. The new stone collection is a welcome upgrade from the brand’s signature packaging. While the marble vessels are undeniably luxe, the sandstone vases are a great complement to a minimalist room. Choose from a variety of roses and other arrangements.

Forget books of matches and disposable plastic lighters, Seth Rogen has figured out a way for matches to go upscale with the Houseplant Pebble Match Strike. It looks like two stones, but open up this modern objéct to find a stash of matches. Keep it on a bar cart, side table or to decorate a bookshelf.

But sometimes fires aren’t always welcome, which is why it’s important for every home to have a fire extinguisher within reach. Fortunately, Weston Table makes decorative and functional ones. Choose from a variety of styles from constellations to whale and dog designs. This also makes a smart housewarming gift. Ten percent of sales are donated to the National Parks Foundation.

Fable recently launched a gorgeous collection of dinnerware perfect for any fall table. Cool and modern, the green color is a simple way to add a rustic hue to your table, whether you’re having a dinner party or just want to make things look nicer every day.

But those with more traditional tastes will absolutely fawn over Dondolo’s tabletop collaboration with dress designer Sue Sartor. Choose from Peony White or Peony Pale Blue Dinner Plates and Salad Plates. Each item is handcrafted and unique. Don’t forget to add the matching placemats and napkins. What a dreamy way to bring a touch of the south to any table.

Neon Lace’s Drink Dresses serve the same purpose as wine charms without looking hideous. Available in linen or lace, these decorative accessories make everything from wine to coupe glasses look all dressed up for the party.

Why shouldn’t your fridge have a designer touch? These cute Kate Space food containers are the perfect way to store leftover food. The Floral Fields pattern has a lively vintage vibe with a bamboo top that reads “Anything is possible.” Far nicer to eat from on the go than a standard glass food container, it makes any leftover meal taste just a little bit better.

But if your pantry shelves or refrigerator are in desperate need of a makeover, Home+Sort’s line of organizers with mDesign will check every box. From airtight jars perfect for rice to lovely lattice baskets made for holding snacks or boxes of pasta, you will wonder how you ever lived without this indispensable product line.

If you like to display olive oil in the kitchen or on the table, why not choose a delicious one with a stylish bottle such as Branche Olive Oil? This farm-to-bottle extra virgin olive oil is made with olives from the south of Spain. With clean, modern packaging and a wood stopper, design is key here. No 1 has a bolder flavor and features a green bottle while No 2 has a milder flavor and has a white bottle.

Looking for an environmentally friendly way to clean up? Arbour Every Day Spray is the perfect way to do it. This fragrance-free spray works hard to clean up grease, grime, and everyday dirt quickly. Best of all, it is totally safe, non-toxic, and antimicrobial.

If you’re trying to cut down on plastic, live a more eco-friendly lifestyle, or simply dislike those cumbersome bottles of detergent or messy powders— you will love Ecos Plastic-Free Dishwasher Detergent Sheets. Just put a sheet in the soap compartment (you need to fold it a few times) and turn it on your desired setting. Your dishes will come out sparkling clean.

Traditional devotees will love the Coley Porter Side Table. It’s so versatile that it can work as a bedside table, a desk for smaller spaces, or even as a petite bar in a living room or dining room. Available through the brand’s quick ship program, it can be customized with a selection of fabrics and shipped in just ten days.

Why just grab some ice from the refrigerator when you can display it in a beautiful ice bucket from Katie Kime? The ultimate bar cart accessory, this bucket is available in lucite, gold and silver as well as more than 37 patterns and colors. Don’t forget to add a monogram. This also makes a very thoughtful gift, especially for someone who frequently entertains.

Make this lucite dish from ArtSugar the true star of your coffee table or nightstand. Perfect for jewelry, tiny candies or just to be decorative, it’s a great accessory for any surface that needs a touch of fun. ​​

Looking for some extra inspiration for your renovations this fall? Interior designer Anne Hepfer’s book Mood has all the inspiration you need. They say not to judge a book by its cover, but this book’s bold royal blue cover is showstopping. Just wait until you see all the beautiful projects featured inside the pages.

Want your home to smell like heaven all the time? Inspired by the scent of exotic white flowers, the Kai Reed Diffuser gets pretty close. With a modern square bottle and brown reeds, it’s a truly decorative accent that also makes a very thoughtful gift. Better yet, it’s free of parabens, sulfates, phthalates, and phosphates. Not into reed diffusers? Candles and room spray are also available in the brand’s signature as well as Rose scents.

But if you prefer to diffuse an essential oil, opt for the Aroma Om Stone Diffuser in stone. Clean and minimalist looking, it features a matte finish and ceramic cover. It mists for up to three hours and shuts off automatically. It can also light up and be used as a nightlight.

34 boulevard Saint Germain is the newest fragrance from famed perfumer Diptyque. The chic candle is packaged in an opaline glass vessel and features notes of black current leave, moss, and florals. It has a spicy woodsy scent that’s undeniably sophisticated. Make any room feel perfectly on brand this fall.

Pets are great, but the odors they create leave much to be desired, especially on carpets and upholstery. Fortunately, Zoop is amazing at getting rid of pet odors and stains. Best of all, it has a fresh scent (not a chemical scent) and each bottle lasts for months. Stock up before it gets sold out again.

Are your knives feeling a little dull? Upgrade this season with a set of highly functional knives that just happen to be sleekly designed. Material knives are made from Japanese stainless steel and high carbon. This set includes a bread knife, paring knife, and chef’s knife. The sage handles simply stun.

There’s nothing that feels like a fresh, new tea towel. Magic Linen Ruffle Trim Linen Tea Towels are just so pretty and classic. Whether you’re drying off plates every day or a platter post-dinner party, these tea towels are a must. Match any kitchen with twelve different colors and prints from neutrals to shades of blue and stripes.

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Latest fed rate increase expected to further cool Phoenix real estate azfamily.com, Arizona

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To Make Money In The Stock Market, Do Nothing

The stock market fell so sharply at the beginning of the year that it felt at times as if it would never come back. But it did, in a weekslong rally that lasted through mid-August and would have been more widely celebrated if stocks had not plummeted so badly in the first place.Now, for the last week or two, the market has been wobbly, with no clear trend in sight.

What should investors do about these head-spinning changes in the market’s direction? In a word: nothing. Ignoring the shifts in the markets was my main advice for long-term investors throughout the winter, when stocks were cratering. And I’m sticking with it.

As it turns out, doing nothing was the second-best advice anyone could have given you for investing in the overall stock market this year. The very best advice would have required a crystal ball: You should have sold precisely on Jan. 3, when the S&P 500 stock index was at its peak, and bought on June 16, when it hit bottom. (Then, quite possibly, you should have sold again on Aug. 16, before the market turned rocky. The verdict is still out on that one.)

If you made all of those moves, more power to you. Please get in touch and explain how you managed that perfect trick of market timing, and how you’re going to pull it off the next time. For most of us, buying and selling at the right moment isn’t going to happen regularly enough to beat the market.

Instead, this year shows why it’s better, for the vast majority of people, to take a longer-term approach. Once you have set up a solid investing plan, using low-cost index funds for steady purchases of stocks and bonds, you can do absolutely nothing.

Our Coverage of the Investment World

The decline of the stock and bond markets this year has been painful, and it remains difficult to predict what is in store for the future.

Let’s recap what has happened this year. The stock market was terrible for months. In fact, through June, it was the worst first half of a year since 1970, as this newspaper, and many others, stated. High inflation, war, rising interest rates and the threat of recession contributed to the dismal performance, and rising rates meant that prices in the bond market (which move in the opposite direction) fell, too.

But the handy periodization used by both Wall Street and journalism — focusing on the first half of the year — obscured a major shift in the stock market. Yes, for more than five months from the market’s peak on Jan. 3, the trend was unmistakably downward. After June 16, however, the market turned around, though of course it wasn’t immediately clear that it was happening.

An often overlooked rally

Consider a few numbers. From Jan. 3 through June 16, the S&P 500 fell 23.6 percent, below the 20 percent threshold that denotes a bear market, in finance jargon. The big declines got everyone’s attention. What didn’t get nearly as much attention was the move that began on June 17. Stocks started climbing — and kept doing so for two months.

From its bottom through Aug. 16, the S&P 500 gained 17.4 percent; with dividends, it returned 17.7 percent. That’s a whopping two-month return. It would be an exaggeration to claim that nobody noticed. But it’s fair to say the market’s rise wasn’t chronicled nearly as widely as its fall. Many investors may not have even realized that stocks were steadily rising.

One reason for this is entirely sensible: The math is unpleasant. When the market’s value declines by nearly a quarter, it must increase much more than that — by 31 percent, in this case — to return to its former level. The 17.4 percent climb left stocks well below their peak. You still lost money, just not as much. Another reason for the relative neglect is that the S&P 500 is still in a bear market.

Customarily, a bear market continues until the last peak of the previous bull market has been recaptured. You won’t see headlines about a new bull market until the S&P 500 reaches its Jan. 3 peak, which, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, was 4,796.56. As of Thursday’s close, the index stood at 4,199.12.

So if you don’t follow the markets closely, it is understandable if you didn’t notice that the 17.4 percent rally ever happened. In a manner of speaking, you didn’t miss much. The uncertainty in the stock market and, more important, in the greater economy has not ended. Not at all.

The Federal Reserve says it intends to keep raising short-term interest rates to stave off raging inflation For now, that seems to me to be the right approach, despite the problems that higher interest rates will cause businesses and working people, who may lose jobs if the Fed persists and the economy contracts.

Inflation may have already peaked. Gasoline is under $4 a gallon in the New York area, where I live, for the first time since March, and that kind of good news is being experienced by drivers all over the country.

But at an annual rate of 8.5 percent, the latest reading for the Consumer Price Index, inflation is far too high for the Fed to accept. Therefore, the only rational explanation for a sudden Fed pause would be very unwelcome, such as an unforeseen calamity that posed a grave threat to the financial system. No one wants that.

The best we can hope for is a so-called soft landing, an easy decline in inflation accomplished with just a modest further increase in interest rates without a major recession or a far deeper bear market. Perhaps that’s possible in this odd economy, which is distorted by the pandemic and the war. Or perhaps it’s not. I am not making predictions.

What I’m saying is that it’s possible to cope — and to invest well — without knowing where the markets or the economy will be next week or next month.

When the market drops, as it did early this year, it paid not to panic. If you had sold during the decline you would have missed the substantial gains of June, July and August. It was much easier to have remained calm while losing money in the stock market. Please note one supremely important caveat: You had to have put aside enough money to pay your bills. If you have not done that, you will be taking a big risk by investing in the stock market.

Keep your reserve cash someplace safe. Now that interest rates have begun rising, a number of options are becoming attractive: U.S. government I bonds, money market funds, high-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposits, short-term government and high-quality commercial bonds. Then set up an investing plan with a horizon of a decade or more, relying mainly on low-cost index funds that track the entire market.

I invest in the bond market, too, in the hope of finding greater stability, because the actuarial tables insist that I’m closer to retirement than to the start of my career, and I may need some of the money within the next decade or two. If you’re just starting out, though, it’s reasonable to focus on stocks and avoid bonds.

Yes, you can do even better than my buy-and-hold, total market approach, if you pick the right stocks at the right moment, and if you sell them at the right time. But you would need to be quite knowledgeable or lucky or, better yet, both. With the method I’m recommending, you don’t need to be right about much. You’re just betting that the economy will grow over the long run and that the stock market will capture some of that growth.

Follow my lead and you can disregard the market’s short-term vagaries. Keep putting money into your index funds, especially when the market falls, and you will benefit from lower prices and bolster the overall returns that you will earn over decades.

If you set things up right, your investing will require that you do nothing further except, perhaps, rebalance your holdings every so often to make sure you have the proportion of stocks and bonds that you really want.

I’ll come back with more on that subject in the weeks ahead. As for quick, short-term maneuvering, that may be fun, but I’d stay away from it in the stock market. Slow and steady makes better sense for the money you will really need.

Source: To Make Money in the Stock Market, Do Nothing – The New York Times

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These Are The 10 Major Housing Markets That Just Saw The Biggest Declines In Home Equity

As home prices soared in recent years, homeowners enjoyed record levels of tappable home equity, which is the amount of money a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20% equity stake. But that’s all changing as home prices begin to fall, with July seeing the largest decline in home prices since 2011, according to real estate data and analytics company Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor. (See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.)

Indeed, while tappable equity hit another record high in the second quarter of the year, its growth appears to have peaked. “While mortgage-holders’ tappable equity had grown 25% from last year to hit another record high in Q2, we noted that equity actually peaked in May and tracked the pullback that began in June before escalating in July,” says Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data & Analytics. “Tappable equity is now down 5% in the last two months, setting up Q3 to likely see the first quarterly decline in tappable equity since 2019.”

In some markets, this drop in tappable home equity is especially acute, the Black Knight data revealed. Five of the most equity-rich West Coast markets saw tappable equity decline by 10% to 20% from April to July. Here’s how large the declines in tappable equity were in the 10 most equity rich markets:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • Los Angeles, -10%
  • Washington DC, -4%
  • Chicago, 6%
  • Dallas , 6%
  • New York, 8%
  • Miami, 8%

Meanwhile, among the 50 most equity rich markets, here’s what happened with tappable home equity:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • Oxnard, Calif. -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • Denver, -12%
  • Sacramento, -12%
  • Santa Cruz, -11%
  • Riverside, Calif., -11%
  • Los Angeles, -10%

One big reason why tappable equity is down is, of course, that home prices are down. But it’s also likely that rising interest rates are to blame for how much equity is being withdrawn, as rising rates change how homeowners tap their equity. Homeowners had previously taken advantage of lower rates to take out HELOCs and home equity lending was up nearly 30% quarter over quarter, the largest volume in almost 12 years.

What to consider if you’re thinking about taking out a HELOC

HELOCs tend to be a far more affordable way to borrow money than either credit cards or personal loans, particuarly for homeowners with significant equity in their homes. And they can be a smart option for borrowers looking to consolidate high-interest debt or fund home improvement projects. But it’s important to get your finances in order, your credit score as high as possible and to shop around for rates. See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.

It’s also important to understand how HELOCs work, too. They are composed of a two-part structure, which is usually a 10-year draw period and a 20-year repayment period, which together equal a 30-year term. During the draw period, borrowers can withdraw as much or as little money as they like. But once the repayment period begins, money can no longer be withdrawn and the borrower begins to pay back the principal in addition to interest.

Because HELOCs are based on the amount of equity someone has in their home, the amount of money a borrower qualifies for will vary. Remember that HELOCS tend to have variable rates, which might start out low but could increase if rates rise. And because you’re using your home as collateral to take out a loan like this, you risk of losing your home if you’re unable to make your scheduled payments.

By : Alisa Wolfson

Source: These are the 10 major housing markets that just saw the biggest declines in home equity – MarketWatch

Existing Home Sales data showed a drop of 5.9% from June to July and a 20.2% drop from the same period one year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. The median price of a house rose 10.8% from one year prior to a price of $403,800, but it’s still down $10,000 from the previous month’s high, according to the National Association of Realtors.

These drops occurred despite the inventory of unsold houses rising to 1.31 million by the end of July.

“The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”

The rise in mortgage rates has helped to rapidly cool what had been a red-hot housing market, hitting a record high in median home prices. The Federal Reserve boosted the rate in an effort to contain rampant inflation.

The six-month decline marks perhaps the fastest drop off since 2005, according to Seeking Alpha.

The average seasonally adjusted rate of home sales over the past decade hovered around 5.35 million, but the current level is at around 4.81 million, down from 6.50 million in half a year. Only the first year of the pandemic shows a more severe decline in home sales.

The previous non-pandemic rate to hit a similar cliff dive occurred in 2005 after the housing bubble peaked. The following decline occurred over nine months from 2006 into 2007 and rolled into the housing crisis of 2008. And the Conference Board posted an annual rate of change in its Leading Economic Index of 0%. Seeking Alpha noted that should the rate enter negative territory, it would be the 13th time since 1960, and 66% of those previous instances preceded a recession.

Related contents:

‘The market has begun to correct itself’: House hunters say they’re ready to buy in the next… Realtor.com

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Why Some Housing Markets Seem To Be Cooling Down While Others Heat Up

Burned by a hot housing market, some frustrated home buyers may have hoped that sky-high listing prices are finally coming down to earth. Well, they are – sort of. It just depends on where you live.

To better understand the housing affordability situation, Fortune magazine reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. Researchers at the financial intelligence firm calculated how home prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024.

Among the nation’s 414 largest housing markets, the Moody’s Analytics forecast model predicts that 210 markets are on the verge of seeing home prices decline over the coming two years and 204 markets are poised to see home prices rise over the coming two years.

The prospect of a big drop in house prices is becoming more and more likely as home sellers give in to the mounting pressure on affordability posed by June’s rapid mortgage rate hike.

Nationwide, home prices increased 18.3% year over year in June 2022, compared with June 2021, marking the 125th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, according to CoreLogic, a data analytics provider. Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, points out that the housing markets that have experienced price gains may find themselves at a pivotal moment.

“What I can say is that those markets that boomed were driven by strong local job creations and from new residents moving into those regions, including as retirees,” he said. “So, for places like Phoenix, Tampa and Boise, you may or may not see any meaningful price decline. They could also be primed for even more price gains.”

Yun added, “I cannot say, given such an extraordinary price growth in a short duration. But even if there were to be a price decline in these markets, it would not do any local economic damage given the strong housing wealth conditions of many local homeowners who had purchased many years ago. Even some renters may want to jump back into buying if there was a price decline.”

He said he would be more concerned about housing markets being able to weather the storm where job growth is not occurring and where they are losing remote workers to other locations.

“For white-collar workers earning high salaries, remote work is a huge financial boon,” said Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “It enables them to move from a tech center like San Francisco to a more affordable part of the country like Boise or Salt Lake City, get more home for their money and save some for a rainy day. It can have the opposite effect on locals in those destinations–especially renters–who are watching from the sidelines as home prices skyrocket while their income stays mostly the same.”

“Partly because of soaring home prices, Phoenix and Miami have some of the highest inflation rates in the country,” added Bokhari. “That will eventually diminish the financial advantage of moving to these places for out-of-towners. High inflation also cuts into budgets for locals, who are spending more on things like food and fuel and saving less for an eventual down payment.”

Home prices shot up over twice as fast as home buyer incomes in Boise, Idaho, rising 53% to $485,000 from December 2019 to December 2021, according to a Redfin analysis of mortgage data. Prices rose 48% in Austin, Texas and Cape Coral, Florida.

While local incomes rose and home prices skyrocketed in 2021, housing markets in many of those pandemic boomtowns are faltering as high mortgage rates and unsustainable price growth tame demand.

Redfin reports that Boise, Austin, Cape Coral, Phoenix, North Port, Florida and Tacoma, Washington are among the 20 housing markets that cooled the fastest in the first half of 2022. And Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, West Palm Beach, Miami, Stockton, California and Salt Lake City are among the 25 housing markets most susceptible to home-price declines if the U.S. enters a recession. But although they are susceptible to a recession-driven downturn, these places are unlikely to see housing market crashes because home buyers there have relatively high incomes.

“People are still moving in from California and they still have enough money to buy nice homes in desirable neighborhoods, sometimes with all cash,” said Austin Redfin agent Gabriel Recio. “But the days of homes selling for 25% over asking price with multiple offers are over. Buyers are no longer as eager now that mortgage rates are up and there’s buzz in the air about the slowing housing market. Local buyers–and even buyers coming from out of town–now have a chance to take their time and buy a home at asking price or even under asking price.”

Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic, sees the markets that Moody’s model predicts will experience the biggest drop in house prices as the same markets that CoreLogic’s market condition indicators model shows as exceedingly overvalued. “These markets have seen considerable home price appreciation over what local income suggests would be affordable,” said Hepp. “Thus, pulling of home buyer demand, due to higher rates and perception of overvaluation, as more new construction becomes available may lead to price discounts and resultant price declines.

Also, these markets have seen considerable in-migration from other states, mostly in the Northeast, and Baby Boomers retiring. Those incoming buyers may now look at other locations where they perceive prices as more affordable, which would dampen demand and may lead to some price discounting on the part of builders.”

Mortgage rates may be historically low, but so is home buyer morale these days, says George Ratiu, Realtor.com’s manager of economic research. He said the big issue at the moment is that real estate markets are moving through a reset transition, away from the chaotic pace of 2020-2021, following a sharp increase in mortgage rates in the first half of 2022, which compounded home prices breaking new records.

“The rising costs of borrowing have created an affordability ceiling for many buyers, who are finding that their incomes are no longer sufficient to cover much higher potential mortgage payments,” said Ratiu. “As a result, with demand cooling considerably, the number of homes for sale are sitting longer on the market and motivated homeowners are resorting to price cuts to close deals.”

In June, Realtor.com’s inventory data showed that about 15% of listed homes showed price reductions, double the share from last year. These trends are particularly visible in metropolitan areas that have seen an influx of residents and capital over the past couple of years, especially in the Sun Belt. Markets like Austin, Texas; Raleigh, North Carolina; Phoenix; the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area in Florida; and Stockton, California are posting some of the highest gains in the number of homes for sale with price cuts.

Ratiu said, “Many of these markets experienced strong price appreciation during the pandemic, but with inflation eating away at most people’s incomes, the ability to keep paying more has disappeared. As wages fall behind prices, and with rates significantly higher than a year ago, we can expect these markets to continue to see adjustments in sales and prices through the remainder of 2022 and into next year.”

Susan Wachter, the Albert Sussman professor of real estate and professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said Moody’s prediction of price declines points to overpriced housing markets based on income.

“That is how these markets differ,” she explained. “Some of the markets are supply constrained. Some like those in parts of Florida are less so. It is reasonable to expect that markets with elevated prices based on historical ratios will be at risk in a growth slowdown. What is not addressed here, is what happens after income growth slows or declines, that is, in recovery. What is missing in this calculus is the identification of amenity-rich supply constrained markets where price rises will likely pick up in the aftermath of a recession. With long-term income increases, these markets are destined to be hot again.”

I am an award-winning journalist and former real estate editor at the Chicago Tribune, where I was cited for excellence for my work in launching and editing real estate

Source: Why Some Housing Markets Seem To Be Cooling Down While Others Heat Up

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What Is Prosopagnosia, Brad Pitt’s Face Blindness Condition?

Brad Pitt fears he has created a false image of himself: one that is aloof, remote, inaccessible, and self-absorbed, he recently told GQ. But the reality is, he believes he struggles with undiagnosed prosopagnosia, also known as “face blindness.”

The problem is especially present when Pitt attends parties or social gatherings. “Nobody believes me!” he said. “I wanna meet another.” And he’s experienced the symptoms for years—in 2013, he told Esquire they discouraged him from leaving the house.

“So many people hate me because they think I’m disrespecting them,” he said at the time. “So I swear to God, I took one year where I just said, this year, I’m just going to cop to it and say to people, ‘Okay, where did we meet?’ But it just got worse. People were more offended.”

He continued: “Every now and then, someone will give me context, and I’ll say, ‘Thank you for helping me.’ But I piss more people off. You get this thing, like, ‘You’re being egotistical. You’re being conceited.’ But it’s a mystery to me, man. I can’t grasp a face and yet I come from such a design/aesthetic point of view. I am going to get it tested.”

He hasn’t been evaluated yet, he told GQ, but diagnosis usually requires a series of face recognition tests conducted by a neurologist.

So, what is prosopagnosia?

The condition, also known as “face blindness,” is characterized by abnormalities, damage, or impairment in the right fusiform gyrus, a fold in the brain that contributes to facial perception and memory, according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS). It affects a person’s ability to recognize faces. The severity of the condition varies, from not being able to recognize the faces of friends and family members to the inability to distinguish any face at all.

What causes prosopagnosia?

There are two types of prosopagnosia, each with its own cause.

  • Developed prosopagnosia: Some people are born with prosopagnosia without having experienced any brain damage, which is a type also known as developmental prosopagnosia, per the United Kingdom’s National Health Service. This type often runs in families and is believed to be the result of genetic mutation or deletion, per the NINDS.
  • Then there’s acquired prosopagnosia or the onset of it after brain trauma. It can result from stroke, traumatic brain injury, or certain neurodegenerative diseases, per the NINDS.

Prosopagnosia treatments

While there’s no one universal treatment for prosopagnosia, therapy often involves learning compensatory strategies to enact in social situations where facial recognition is needed. Treatment often involves learning strategies to turn to in social situations. The NINDS says adults whose condition followed a stroke or brain trauma, however, can be retrained to use other clues for recognition with the help of various therapies.

By

Source: What Is Prosopagnosia, Brad Pitt’s Face Blindness Condition? – The New York Times

Critics:

Reports of prosopagnosia date back to antiquity, but Bodamer’s report (1947) of two individuals with face recognition deficits was a landmark paper in that he extensively described their symptoms and declared it to be distinct from general visual agnosia. He referred to the condition as prosopagnosia, which he coined by combining the Greek word for face (prosopon) with the medical term for recognition impairment (agnosia).

Prior to the 21st century, almost all cases of prosopagnosia that were documented resulted from brain damage, usually due to head trauma, stroke, or degenerative disease. Cases due to brain damage are called acquired prosopagnosia: these individuals had normal face recognition abilities that were then impaired. Acquired prosopagnosia is often (though not always) apparent to people who suffer from it, because they have experienced normal face recognition in the past and so they notice their deficit.

If you have experienced a noticeable decline in your face recognition abilities, you should contact a neurologist; any sudden decline may indicate the existence of a condition that needs immediate attention. In cases of developmental prosopagnosia (sometimes called congenital prosopagnosia), face recognition problems are present early in life and are caused by neurodevelopmental impairments that impact face processing mechanisms. Face recognition ability varies substantially in people with normal abilities; some people are really good, others are poor, and most people are somewhere between these extremes.

People with developmental prosopagnosia appear to make up the low end of the distribution of face recognition abilities. On the opposite end of the distribution are super recognizers, who have extraordinarily good face recognition. If you think you’re a super recognizer and you’re interested in research participation, please contact us. Developmental prosopagnosics have never recognized faces normally so their impairment is often not readily apparent to them.

As a result, many developmental prosopagnosics are unaware of their prosopagnosia even as adults. Developmental prosopagnosia in children can be especially difficult to identify. For more information on developmental prosopagnosia in kids, please visit this website.

Many people with developmental prosopagnosia report family members with face processing deficits, and several families with multiple developmental prosopagnosics have been documented. A genetic contribution to many cases of developmental prosopagnosia fits with results from twin studies in the normal population that indicate that differences in face recognition ability are primarily due to genetic differences.

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