Why Some Fund Managers Prefer Dividends Over Share Buybacks

Now that the full extent of the market rout in 2022 is coming into view, some investors are reassessing their strategies and, in some cases, starting to consider dividend stocks and dividend-focused funds.

Record dividend payments in 2022

It’s no secret that 2022 was a bleak year for stock returns. However, companies in the S&P 500 paid out a record $565 billion in dividends throughout the year. Data from S&P Dow Jones Indices reveals that dividend payouts from the index grew an impressive 10% year over year.

In a press release in January, analyst Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices said 2023 should bring another record year for dividend payouts—even in the event of a “full recession.” He expects rising interest rates and bond yields to “exert upward pressure on dividend payouts,” adding that competition for income will increase.

Of course, dividends aren’t the only way company managements incentivize shareholders to own their shares. Buybacks are another popular strategy, although some fund managers prefer dividends over buybacks for several reasons. In fact, investors who are considering buying into a company because of share buybacks should watch for a red flag.

Former PIMCO portfolio manager Austin Graff of Opal Capital, which just launched in 2022, warned that while many tech companies are buying back shares, they’re not reducing their share counts because they’re handing out stock-based compensation to executives and key employees — and issuing new shares to do it. In some cases, these companies are increasing their share counts even though they’re repurchasing shares.

A moral contract

Graff also prefers dividends because they act as a “moral contract” with management.

“For management to return capital to shareholders, it’s very public,” he added. “What companies are paying every quarter or year, they’re creating a moral contract to keep that up, or their stock faces negative ramifications. But they do buybacks when they want to, and there are negative consequences to buying back stocks at highs, not lows. It’s the opposite of what we would want to do with our own money.”

Warren Buffett and other high-profile investors speak very highly of dividend stocks. He added that if management teams did repurchase their shares at lows rather than highs, it would be great, but that’s not something most companies end up doing.

While dividends are anti-dilutive, many tech companies are in unique situations with heavy stock-based compensation. As a result, their stocks have declined as such companies lay off significant numbers of workers.

“Think of what that means,” Graff explained. “If they pay X dollars, and their stock’s at $100, they issue fewer stocks to that employee than if they’re paying X dollars and the stock is at $50. If the stock goes down, it creates more dilution for stock-based compensation than what was experienced at higher stock prices.”

How Warren Buffett rakes in billions on dividend stocks

Warren Buffett also likes dividend stocks, and it’s easy to see why. In fact, dividend stocks are one of the reasons the legendary value investor outperformed in 2022. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is expected to generate over $6 billion in dividend income in the next 12 months.

Nearly half of Berkshire’s dividend income is estimated to come from only three stocks: Chevron CVX , Occidental Petroleum OXY and Bank of America BAC . Other top dividend payers for Berkshire include Apple AAPL and Coca-Cola KO .

Aside from Graff and Buffett, others started to see the value in dividend stocks in 2022. According to Morningstar MORN , investor interest in dividend-focused funds has jumped after the robust performance put up by dividend-paying names last year. Monthly net sales of the 128 U.S. equity funds with “dividend” in their names have jumped since the fall of 2021, while sales of those without “dividend” in their name have dropped.

Morningstar reported that dividend funds averaged a loss of 6.68% in 2022, versus the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index’s 19.6% plunge, which was similar to the average loss of other U.S. equity funds that don’t focus on dividends. One reason dividend funds performed better in 2022 is the lack of technology exposure.

Another reason is valuation. Last year, investors started to refocus their attention on valuations and multiples. Morningstar revealed that the price multiples of the companies that dividend funds tend to own are below the stock index average.

Protecting their dividends

At the end of the day, fund managers aren’t the only ones with a preference for dividends over buybacks. When the going gets tough, corporate managements have demonstrated a preference for protecting their dividend payments at all costs, meanwhile sacrificing their share repurchases to ensure their ability to keep paying their dividend.

S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that buybacks reached a new record in the first quarter of 2022 at $281 billion but declined in the second quarter to $220 billion and in the third to $211 billion.

While share buybacks ticked higher in the fourth quarter, Silverblatt said it may have been because companies accelerated their purchases to avoid the new 1% buyback tax that went into effect this year. In fact, that new 1% tax is one reason some fund managers prefer dividends over buybacks.

On one hand, a 1% tax isn’t much, but on the other, once a tax is in place, it creates the possibility of increasing that tax over time.

I am the founder and CEO of ValueWalk. What started as a hobby ten years ago, has turned into a well known financial media empire with millions of monthly

Source: Why Some Fund Managers Prefer Dividends Over Share Buybacks

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Wall Street Rebounds With a Vengeance After Initial Inflation Sell-Off

Wall Street stock indexes made a dramatic recovery, closing sharply higher after an earlier sell-off on Thursday while the dollar gave up earlier gains as investors poured back into riskier bets after digesting a red-hot U.S. inflation reading that fueled bets for a big Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

Traders reversed course after initially flipping to safety mode when the U.S. Labor Department’s consumer prices index (CPI) report showed headline CPI gaining 8.2% annually as rents surged by the most since 1990 and food prices rose. Core CPI, which excludes food and fuel prices, beat forecasts at 6.6%.

The dollar fell against most currencies as investors ended up taking the opposite approach to the market’s initial response to the data. The greenback had briefly hit a 32-year peak against the yen of 147.665 before paring gains. [FRX]

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed the session up 2.6% after declining 5.7% in the previous six sessions. Earlier Thursday it fell 2.3% to its lowest level since Nov. 2020. [.N]

“When you have that big of a shock that it moves that fast, it’s not unusual for it to get a little bit overdone. That might actually be a good sign we’re not seeing follow-on selling,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago, referring to stock index moves.

While the data implies that the Fed will continue with sizeable rate hikes, Cruz said the market retracement “gives a sense there’s a large enough pool of investors out there who weren’t caught off guard … that maybe we are getting down to levels, where a lot of the pessimism is already priced in.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 827.87 points, or 2.83%, to 30,038.72, the S&P 500 gained 92.88 points, or 2.60%, to 3,669.91 and the Nasdaq Composite added 232.05 points, or 2.23%, to 10,649.15.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.85% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.69%. The MSCI index had earlier lurched to a July 2020 low.

Global markets have been extremely volatile recently as investors have worried that major economies will be pushed firmly into recessions before inflation is tamed.

After Thursday’s inflation data, traders were betting that the Fed would raise interest rates sharply in three weeks’ time and ultimately lift rates to 4.75%-5% by early next year.

Benchmark Treasury yields jumped to 14-year highs after the hot inflation data added fuel to recession fears. But rates pared gains as U.S. equities rallied with some strategists pointing to short-covering in over-sold markets.

Benchmark 10-year notes were up 5.6 basis points to 3.958%, from 3.902% late on Wednesday.

The euro was rallying after falling as much as 0.72% against the dollar as nervous investors had turned to the safety of the greenback in their initial reaction to the data.

The euro was rallying after falling as much as 0.72% against the dollar as nervous investors had turned to the safety of the greenback in their initial reaction to the data. Recently though the euro up 0.74% to $0.9776.

The Japanese yen had last weakened 0.24% versus the greenback at 147.24 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1324, up 1.99% on the day.

Setting off a rally for the battered pound, media reports suggested British Prime Minister Liz Truss was considering reversing more of her government’s controversial “mini-budget.”

The Bank of England said central counterparties in its financial system were resilient after its first public stress test. It has insisted its emergency bond market support will expire on Friday as originally announced, countering media reports of continued aid if necessary.

While crude oil had a volatile session, the commodity settled sharply higher as low levels of diesel inventory ahead of winter helped investors shrug off higher-than-expected stocks of crude and gasoline. U.S. crude futures had fallen 5.8% in the three straight sessions through Wednesday on demand worries.

U.S. crude settled up 2.1% at $89.11 per barrel and Brent settled at $94.57, up 2.3% on the day. [O/R]

Elsewhere in commodities, gold fell slightly in reaction to the inflation reading. Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $1,665.75 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.25% to $1,670.00 an ounce.

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew and Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Herbert Lash in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Alexander Smith, Deepa Babington and Lisa Shumaker)

By Sinéad Carew and Marc Jones

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com

.

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Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Workers assemble cars at a Ford Assembly Plant in Chicago. AFP via Getty Images

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell last month as the economy added another 263,000 jobs—signaling that the labor market, which has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars during the pandemic recovery, may not be cooling quickly enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes meant to combat inflation by slowing down the economy.

Job gains in September were down from 315,000 in August but slightly better than the 255,000 new jobs economists were expecting, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department; notable job gains occurred in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, the government said.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%—coming in lower than expectations calling for it to remain flat at 3.7%—as the number of unemployed people dipped to 5.8 million from 6 million in August.

“The numbers are a positive sign that the labor market isn’t deteriorating as quickly as some had feared,” says Eric Merlis, managing director at Citizens Bank, pointing out average hourly earnings were the same month over month and fell from 5.2% to 5% on a yearly basis—a welcome development for the Fed, which is concerned inflation could remain hot as a result of higher wages.

The overall job gains mark the lowest monthly total since April of last year, but in emailed comments analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge Media said the report is “still too robust” for the Fed to pivot from its aggressive tightening just yet.

As a result, stock futures fell immediately after the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning negative to trade down 62 points, or 0.2%, by 8:45 a.m. EDT, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

Despite widespread reports of layoffs at giant corporations, the job market has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars this year, and Fed officials have long pointed to the strength as evidence the economy can withstand additional rate hikes. According to Challenger, U.S. employers have announced plans to cut nearly 210,000 jobs this year, marking the lowest total for the period since at least 1993. However, recent data have signaled things may be changing.

Hiring intentions, which measure the number of new jobs employers plan to add, fell to their lowest level since 2011, according to career services firm Challenger on Thursday. Meanwhile, new jobless claims jumped 15% to 219,000 last week, coming in higher than projected and ending a ten-week streak of better-than-expected data.

The Fed’s next interest rate announcement is due November 2. After the latest jobs data, investors are still expecting officials will hike rates by another 75 basis points—pushing borrowing costs to a new 15-year high.

Source: Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Critics by Indhira Santos & Michael Weber Global Lead, Skills Global Solutions Group, The World Bank

The global agenda on poverty and shared prosperity hinges in large part on the number and quality of jobs people have.  Even before the disruption caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the world was changing rapidly and that is true for the nature of work and how we acquire skills on- and off- the job. Technological change and globalization have created unparalleled economic opportunities and challenges while shaping a new geography of jobs.

They are changing how skills are rewarded and create large uncertainties in terms of which skills will remain relevant in the medium to long term. Similarly, climate change is already generating significant disruptions, threatening livelihoods, and generating displacement, while at the same time opening new opportunities in greener economic activities for those with the necessary skills and inputs to clench them.

A new demographic landscape is developing – through aging in some parts of the world or youth bulges in others. This is generating a new set of opportunities for growth and better jobs through labor and skills policies but also concerns if policymakers do not react to demographic shifts. At the same time, demographic change also nurtures concerns such as the consequences of a shrinking labor force with depreciating skills (aging) and questions about maintaining social cohesion (e.g. in countries with high shares of unemployed youth).

In parallel, rapid urbanization is bringing new benefits from agglomeration, but also new challenges of identifying and connecting millions of vulnerable people, women, and youth to jobs in the more anonymous urban centers. Migration of workers within and between countries continues to be an important trend in most regions across the globe.

In addition to these opportunities and challenges linked to global mega-trends, significant structural issues prevail in labor markets across the world, notably inequality and informality. Substantial inequalities persist in the access to work and its quality. These include the segmentation of workers by their form of employment, their gender, age, or location, both between countries but also within countries’ urban and rural areas. Many women remain outside of the labor force in countries around the world; when they do work, they often do so in activities where pay is low and opportunities to progress scant.

Many youths are idle: not employed, or in education or training, putting a dent in aspirations. Just as worrisome, many of those who do work do so in very low productivity activities, often informally, without access to social or legislative protections and with few opportunities to move up the labor market ladder or learn. As a result, many workers today are poor or one shock away from falling into poverty. 

COVID-19 impacts could leave an entire generation behind; the outlook for future employment, productivity, and earnings growth is sobering. Experience shows that workers who start looking for a job during a recession experience significant and long-lasting negative impacts on employment and income compared to those with better timing. This ‘COVID-19 Generation’ includes recent graduates, first-time job seekers, and workers who have lost jobs due to the pandemic.

They are likely to be scarred from this crisis the longer they are out of work or underemployed. The disruptive impact of the COVID-19 crisis on workers, labor markets, skills development, and livelihoods, as well as its likely long-standing impact on the world of work, has reinforced the importance of labor & skills policies and programs. Looking beyond the crisis, it is imperative to reflect on the multiple impacts of COVID-19 on labor markets and skills development and understand its future implications on the agenda, especially in developing countries.

This changing landscape for employment relations overlays with other factors that have traditionally provided the rationale for public interventions, including market failures and the exploitation of workers. Public labor and skills policy interventions can help mitigate these challenges. They can, for example, limit uneven bargaining power, reduce information asymmetries or discrimination, improve access, quality, efficiency but also the relevance of skills training, and provide protection against risks such as job loss and disability.

As outlined in the World Bank’s 2013 World Development Report, beyond policies that facilitate investments and growth, advancing the global jobs agenda requires the right investment in people – the right skills for people to secure good jobs, the right protection for people against risks arising from volatile economies, and the right mechanisms to help people transition smoothly out of inactivity and unemployment into jobs, and from low to higher productivity employment. 

Labor policies and programs support these goals. Labor regulations and insurance programs protect workers from risks and, if well-designed, can facilitate labor market transitions thereby allowing individuals to engage in higher risk, higher return activities. Active labor market programs such as training, job-search assistance, or support to self-employment or micro-enterprises can also help workers acquire the skills they need and connect them to jobs. For many, these programs can facilitate internal or international labor mobility and increase access to better economic opportunities.

Related News:

Blockchain: A fix for the broken data layer underlying the global labor market VentureBeat

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Job Openings Post Biggest Drop In Two Years In ‘Ominous Sign’ For Labor Market

Peloton Scales Down, Again—Here Are The Major U.S. Layoffs This Year (Forbes)

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Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

The stock market tanked on Friday despite the August jobs report coming in slightly lower than expected and dropping significantly from last month, which did little to ease investor concerns about more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve plunging the economy into a recession.

Stocks gave up gains in the afternoon and turned negative: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%, over 300 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 1.3%.

Stocks initially opened higher after the U.S. economy added 315,000 jobs in August—slightly under the 318,000 expected by analysts and far lower than the 526,000 new jobs added in July, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Though unemployment ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%, the jobs market has remained strong despite slowing economic growth this year, which Fed officials have pointed to as evidence that the economy can withstand more aggressive rate hikes without falling into a recession.

The labor market is “less tight than it was in July” and “moving in the right direction for policymakers,” meaning that overall this is a “good report for those concerned about inflationary impacts of a tight labor market,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

Despite the solid jobs data, stocks added to losses this week and continued to fall amid hawkish comments from Fed officials that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates well into next year and it would take some time before a reversal in monetary policy.

Many Wall Street experts now warn that the prospect of the Fed raising rates “higher for longer” could well spook markets into retesting their June lows, especially as September is historically the market’s worst month on record.

“The market is in a bad place in general – rising interest rates and too high inflation,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “The Fed is somewhat on autopilot for the near future – they will be hiking rates no matter what – but to the extent that the economic data comes in like this, it could take some pressure off of them in future meetings.”

Stocks finished higher on Thursday to kick off the month of September, which has historically been a rough one for markets. Still, all three major averages are set to post their third negative week in a row, continuing a slump that began in mid-August. Optimism about a potential Fed pivot, which was driving the rally earlier this summer, has faded—especially after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell last week, who reiterated aggressive rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

Critics:

Investors parsed through the latest jobs report showing U.S. hiring remained elevated in May. Nonfarm payrolls added 390,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists expected 328,000 jobs added, according to Dow Jones. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, according to the BLS, slightly less than the consensus estimate of 0.4% and in line with April’s pace.

“Good news is bad news. … It reminds us that the Fed is still the swing factor, at least in investor emotion,” Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research, said. Traders selling stocks likely reacted to the move higher in rates with fears of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy at the forefront. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed after the report, above the 2.9% level.

“Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases, because it would signal the labor market remains very tight,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester later Friday said she supports aggressive rate hikes ahead, as she has not seen enough evidence that inflation has peaked.

“I don’t want to declare victory on inflation before I see really compelling evidence that our actions are beginning to do the work in bringing down demand in better balance with aggregate supply,” Mester said on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” Investors fear higher rates could slow the economy too much and tip it into a recession. Higher yields also discount the value of future earnings, which can make stocks look less attractive, especially growth and tech names.

Technology shares retreated Friday amid the rising rates. Micron Technology fell 7.2%, and Nvidia lost about 4.5%. Mega-cap tech names Google-parent Alphabet and Meta Platforms declined roughly 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Apple pulled back about 3.9% after a cautious research note from Morgan Stanley. The firm said slowing App Store growth could hurt the company in the near-term.

Tesla shares fell 9.2% after Reuters reported, citing an internal email, that CEO Elon Musk wants to cut 10% of jobs at the car maker. According to Reuters’ report, Musk also said in the email that he has a “super bad” feeling about the economy. The comments from Musk come after warnings from other bellwether companies this week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday said he expects an economic “hurricane” ahead amid the war in Ukraine and the Fed’s tightening regime.

On Thursday, Microsoft cut its earnings and revenue guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. This week’s decline comes in spite of a strong session Thursday and after a winning prior week. “We have transitioned pretty demonstrably from a ‘buy the dip’ world last year to a ‘sell the rally.’ Last week was a rally, this week is a bit of a pullback. Yesterday was a rally, today’s a pullback,” Nationwide’s Hackett said. “It’s very hard to have consecutive weeks or consecutive days of strength because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell,” he added.

Companies in focus
  • Tesla Inc. TSLA, -2.51% Chief Executive Elon Musk said Monday he is aiming to get the electric-vehicle maker’s self-driving technology ready by year-end, and said he hopes it could quickly be in wide release in the U.S. and even Europe depending on regulatory approval, Reuters reported. Shares finished down by 1.1%.
  • Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY, -0.92% closed 25% higher and bucked the broader market’s selloff as meme-stock investors expressed optimism ahead of the home-goods retailer’s strategic update.
  • On Monday, Boeing Co. BA, -1.20% announced an order from United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.28% for eight more 767 Freighters. That would bring package delivery giant UPS’s fleet of 767 Freighters to 108. Boeing shares ended 0.5% higher.
Other assets
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was flat.
  • Oil futures rallied, with October WTI crude CLV22, +0.44% rising $3.95, or 4.2%, to settle at $97.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery lost a dime to settle at $1,749.70 an ounce.
  • Bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.01% rose 0.9% to trade at $20,184.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +2.04% finished down by 0.8%, while London markets were closed for the summer bank holiday.
  • The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.05% ended 0.1% higher, while the Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.74% finished down by 0.7% in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.04% dropped 2.7%.

Related News:

Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rose To 3.7% In August As Layoffs Continue To Spike

The Stock Market’s Summer Rally Is Over And Investors Should Prepare For A Rough September

Stocks Break Losing Streak Even As Investors Brace For The Market’s Worst Month

Market Experts Predict Further Volatility As Fed Rate Hikes Leave ‘Little Room’ For Soft Landing

Wall Street pros issue warning on stocks. Here’s what they say to buy instead

Bank of America sees ‘no real signs of a bull market,’ calls for S&P 500 to fall to 3,600

A risk-free 2-year Treasury now yields double the average corporate dividend, luring income seekers

Bonds enter first bear market in at least 30 years

‘The psychology has changed so quickly’: Why stock-market lows may be retested as S&P 500 enters its weakest stretch of year

Barron’s: Giant Fund Sells Apple, Tesla, Microsoft Stock. Here’s What It Bought.

Silver is at a 2-year low, but it’s not gold that will determine what happens next, this analyst says

Recession or Not, There Will Be Pain

Markets Brief: Stocks End Week Down; Employment Report Brings Some Good News

Beware of Buying Low in a Bear Market

4 Dangerous Assumptions That Could Hurt Your Retirement Plan

Has Holding Cash Helped Equity Fund Managers?

Flows Into ETFs Hold Steady as Markets Wobble in August

Weekly Wrap: The Witch of Wall Street, Buying the Dips, and Dangerous Retirement Plan Assumptions

3 of the Best Stocks to Buy Before Labor Day

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Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

On a price return basis, the Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio (+4.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 0.6% from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (+4.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 1.0% over the same time. The best performing large cap stock was up 12% and the best performing small cap stock was up 14%. Overall, nine out of the 20 Safest Dividend Yield stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022.

This Model Portfolio only includes stocks that earn an attractive or very attractive rating, have positive free cash flow and economic earnings, and offer a dividend yield greater than 3%. Companies with strong free cash flow provide higher quality and safer dividend yields because I know they have the cash to support the dividend. I think this portfolio provides a uniquely well-screened group of stocks that can help clients outperform.

Since its spin-off from Dupont De Nemours Inc. (DD) in 2019, Dow has grown revenue by 13% compounded annually and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 65% compounded annually. Dow’s NOPAT margin rose from 6% in 2019 to 13% over the trailing twelve months (TTM), while invested capital turns improved from 0.7 to 1.1 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margins and invested capital turns drive the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 4% in 2019 to 14% TTM.

Figure 1: Dow’s Revenue and NOPAT Since 2019

Dow has increased its regular dividend from $2.10/share in 2019 to $2.80/share in 2021. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, provides a 5.5% dividend yield.

Dow’s free cash flow (FCF) comfortably exceeds its regular dividend payments. From 2019 to 2021, Dow generated $16.0 billion (43% of current market cap) in FCF while paying $5.7 billion in dividends. Over the TTM, Dow has generated $6 billion in FCF and paid $2 billion in dividends. See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Dow’s FCF vs. Regular Dividends Since 2019

Companies with strong FCF provide higher quality dividend yields because the firm has the cash to support its dividend. Dividends from companies with low or negative FCF cannot be trusted as much because the company may not be able to sustain paying dividends.

DOW Is Undervalued

At its current price of $52/share, DOW has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.3. This ratio means the market expects Dow’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 70%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Dow grew NOPAT by 65% compounded annually since 2019.

Even if Dow’s NOPAT margin falls to 9% (vs. 13% over the TTM) and the company’s NOPAT falls 5% compounded annually over the next decade, the stock would be worth $75+/share today – a 44% upside. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. Should the company’s NOPAT not fall at such a steep rate, or even grow from current levels, the stock has even more upside.

Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dow’s 10-K and 10-Qs:

Income Statement: I made $3.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of removing $930 million in non-operating expenses (2% of revenue).

Balance Sheet: I made $16.6 billion in adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net increase of $11.3 billion. The most notable adjustment was $9.0 billion (18% of reported net assets) in other comprehensive income.

Valuation: I made $24.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $19.8 billion. Apart from total debt, one of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $6.1 billion in underfunded pensions. This adjustment represents 16% of Dow’s market value.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, and Brian Pellegrini receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses.

Source: Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

Critics by Macrotrends

Dow annual/quarterly free cash flow history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Free cash flow can be defined as a measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

  • Dow free cash flow for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was 2,607.00, a year-over-year.
  • Dow free cash flow for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was , a year-over-year.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2021 was $4.79B, a 18.72% decline from 2020.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2020 was $5.893B, a 48.51% increase from 2019.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2019 was $3.968B, a 91.69% increase from 2018.

Dow annual/quarterly revenue history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Revenue can be defined as the amount of money a company receives from its customers in exchange for the sales of goods or services. Revenue is the top line item on an income statement from which all costs and expenses are subtracted to arrive at net income.

  • Dow revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $15.664B, a 12.81% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $60.129B, a 30.19% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2021 was $54.968B, a 42.62% increase from 2020.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2020 was $38.542B, a 10.27% decline from 2019.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2019 was $42.951B, a 13.41% decline from 2018.

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Dow (DOW) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Dow net profit margin as of June 30, 2022 is 11.06%.

Current and historical p/e ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under valued and is the most widely used valuation measure. Dow PE ratio as of August 03, 2022 is 5.40.

Current and historical current ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. Current ratio can be defined as a liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay short-term obligations. Dow current ratio for the three months ending June 30, 2022 was 1.64.

Historical dividend payout and yield for Dow (DOW) since 2021. The current TTM dividend payout for Dow (DOW) as of August 03, 2022 is $2.80. The current dividend yield for Dow as of August 03, 2022 is 5.43%.

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