Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

On a price return basis, the Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio (+4.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 0.6% from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (+4.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 1.0% over the same time. The best performing large cap stock was up 12% and the best performing small cap stock was up 14%. Overall, nine out of the 20 Safest Dividend Yield stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022.

This Model Portfolio only includes stocks that earn an attractive or very attractive rating, have positive free cash flow and economic earnings, and offer a dividend yield greater than 3%. Companies with strong free cash flow provide higher quality and safer dividend yields because I know they have the cash to support the dividend. I think this portfolio provides a uniquely well-screened group of stocks that can help clients outperform.

Since its spin-off from Dupont De Nemours Inc. (DD) in 2019, Dow has grown revenue by 13% compounded annually and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 65% compounded annually. Dow’s NOPAT margin rose from 6% in 2019 to 13% over the trailing twelve months (TTM), while invested capital turns improved from 0.7 to 1.1 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margins and invested capital turns drive the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 4% in 2019 to 14% TTM.

Figure 1: Dow’s Revenue and NOPAT Since 2019

Dow has increased its regular dividend from $2.10/share in 2019 to $2.80/share in 2021. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, provides a 5.5% dividend yield.

Dow’s free cash flow (FCF) comfortably exceeds its regular dividend payments. From 2019 to 2021, Dow generated $16.0 billion (43% of current market cap) in FCF while paying $5.7 billion in dividends. Over the TTM, Dow has generated $6 billion in FCF and paid $2 billion in dividends. See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Dow’s FCF vs. Regular Dividends Since 2019

Companies with strong FCF provide higher quality dividend yields because the firm has the cash to support its dividend. Dividends from companies with low or negative FCF cannot be trusted as much because the company may not be able to sustain paying dividends.

DOW Is Undervalued

At its current price of $52/share, DOW has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.3. This ratio means the market expects Dow’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 70%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Dow grew NOPAT by 65% compounded annually since 2019.

Even if Dow’s NOPAT margin falls to 9% (vs. 13% over the TTM) and the company’s NOPAT falls 5% compounded annually over the next decade, the stock would be worth $75+/share today – a 44% upside. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. Should the company’s NOPAT not fall at such a steep rate, or even grow from current levels, the stock has even more upside.

Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dow’s 10-K and 10-Qs:

Income Statement: I made $3.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of removing $930 million in non-operating expenses (2% of revenue).

Balance Sheet: I made $16.6 billion in adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net increase of $11.3 billion. The most notable adjustment was $9.0 billion (18% of reported net assets) in other comprehensive income.

Valuation: I made $24.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $19.8 billion. Apart from total debt, one of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $6.1 billion in underfunded pensions. This adjustment represents 16% of Dow’s market value.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, and Brian Pellegrini receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses.

Source: Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

Critics by Macrotrends

Dow annual/quarterly free cash flow history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Free cash flow can be defined as a measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

  • Dow free cash flow for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was 2,607.00, a year-over-year.
  • Dow free cash flow for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was , a year-over-year.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2021 was $4.79B, a 18.72% decline from 2020.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2020 was $5.893B, a 48.51% increase from 2019.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2019 was $3.968B, a 91.69% increase from 2018.

Dow annual/quarterly revenue history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Revenue can be defined as the amount of money a company receives from its customers in exchange for the sales of goods or services. Revenue is the top line item on an income statement from which all costs and expenses are subtracted to arrive at net income.

  • Dow revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $15.664B, a 12.81% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $60.129B, a 30.19% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2021 was $54.968B, a 42.62% increase from 2020.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2020 was $38.542B, a 10.27% decline from 2019.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2019 was $42.951B, a 13.41% decline from 2018.

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Dow (DOW) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Dow net profit margin as of June 30, 2022 is 11.06%.

Current and historical p/e ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under valued and is the most widely used valuation measure. Dow PE ratio as of August 03, 2022 is 5.40.

Current and historical current ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. Current ratio can be defined as a liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay short-term obligations. Dow current ratio for the three months ending June 30, 2022 was 1.64.

Historical dividend payout and yield for Dow (DOW) since 2021. The current TTM dividend payout for Dow (DOW) as of August 03, 2022 is $2.80. The current dividend yield for Dow as of August 03, 2022 is 5.43%.

Related contents:

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Bitcoin Brice Trades Around $21,000 As Crypto Firms Announce Layoffs

Cryptocurrencies have been sinking along with other higher-risk assets as the Federal Reserve steadily reverses the aggressive monetary policies it adopted earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. Lately, its efforts to raise interest rates to combat surging inflation have further dented investors‘ risk appetite. The market value of the entire crypto sector has fallen to less than $1 trillion from about $3 trillion in November, according to CoinMarketCap. Those falls reflect a significant drop in trading activity and momentum, and until that turns around, industry players like Coinbase are likely to remain under pressure, said KBW Managing Director Kyle Voigt.

Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said the company had grown too quickly, expanding from about 1,250 employees at the start of last year to around 5,000 currently. “We saw the opportunities but we needed to massively scale our team to be positioned to compete in a broad array of bets,” he wrote in a note to staff. “While we tried our best to get this just right, in this case it is now clear to me that we over-hired.”

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC. 51.58 -0.43 -0.83%

The price of ether, the in-house currency of the Ethereum network, fell 4.5% to $1,187.30, its lowest close since Jan. 21, 2021. Over the weekend, the price fell below $1,360, the early 2019 high from the previous cycle. Other cryptocurrencies were mixed. Cardano fell 1.9%, but Solana was up 1.3% and Stellar was up 0.5%.

Source: Bitcoin price trades around $21,000 as crypto firms announce layoffs | Fox Business

BlockFi, a platform for trading and lending cryptocurrency, announced via a blog post on Monday that it’s laying off 20 percent of its 850 employees — around 170 to 200 people. CEO Zac Prince said in a Twitter thread that the layoffs can be traced to a “dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions” and BlockFi’s push to become profitable.

It’s not the only crypto company letting workers go. On Friday, Crypto.com (the company with the Super Bowl ad featuring LeBron James) announced that it’s laying off around 260 workers, or around 5 percent of its workforce, according to a Twitter thread from its CEO, Kris Marszalek.

The layoffs come as the crypto market is struggling as a whole. The value of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been falling throughout Monday morning, and Celsius, a lending platform, has halted withdrawals, citing “extreme market conditions.” (BlockFi has specifically said that it has “no exposure to Celsius” on Twitter.) Binance, a large crypto exchange, paused Bitcoin withdrawals for about three hours, citing a technical issue, and within the past few months, we’ve seen coins like Terra essentially go to zero.

Crypto firms have struggled to weather the storm. Coinbase announced that it was slowing hiring in May and reportedly rescinded over 300 job offers the next month; several other companies, like Gemini, Mercado Bitcoin, and Bitso have also had to lay off at least 10 percent of their workers within the past month.

BlockFi says in its post that the layoffs come after a period of explosive growth. The company says it had “about 150 employees” at the end of 2020 and has since grown to a headcount of “over 850.” After the layoffs, however, the company will be down to around 600 employees.

Similarly, Crypto.com was riding high just a few short months ago. In November 2021, it reportedly paid $700 million to plaster its name onto a sports arena in Los Angeles, which was formerly known as the Staples Center. “In the next few years, people will look back at this moment as the moment when crypto crossed the chasm into the mainstream,” Marszalek told the Los Angeles Times when the naming deal, which is supposed to last for 20 years, was announced.

It’s easy to see why crypto companies have been hiring; the space has exploded during the pandemic with prices for major coins rocketing up, NFTs exploding onto the scene, and celebrities and companies alike hyping the blockchain. But, as 2022 has worn on and interest rates have gone up, the growth has started to reverse; trillions of dollars in value have been wiped out from the crypto market, NFT sales have slumped, and companies, including BlockFi, have run into trouble with regulators as governments try to figure out how to handle crypto. Not everyone who bought the boom has made it, and many in the space are predicting a “crypto winter.

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Facebook Rethinks News Deals and Publishers Could Lose Millions

Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook is re-examining its commitment to paying for news, people familiar with the matter said, prompting some news organizations to prepare for a potential revenue shortfall of tens of millions of dollars.

The company has paid average annual fees of more than $15 million to the Washington Post, just over $20 million to the New York Times, and more than $10 million to The Wall Street Journal, according to people familiar with the matter. The Journal fee is part of a broader Facebook News deal largely negotiated by parent company Dow Jones & Co., including annual compensation worth more than $20 million, people familiar with the partnership said.

At the heart of these deals is Facebook’s dedicated News section, which curates a selection of free articles for readers. Facebook, which pays news publishers to feature their content without a paywall, in 2019 agreed to three-year deals with various publishers that are set to expire this year.

Facebook hasn’t provided publishers with any indication that it plans to re-up the partnerships in their current form, or at all, according to people familiar with the matter. The company is looking to shift its investments away from news and toward products that attract creators such as short-form video producers to compete with ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, according to some of the people. The company is also investing heavily in the metaverse, as highlighted by its recent name change to Meta.

Also, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been disappointed by regulatory efforts around the world looking to force platforms like Facebook and Alphabet Inc.’s Google to pay publishers for any news content available on their platforms, people familiar with the matter said. Such moves have damped Mr. Zuckerberg’s enthusiasm for making news a bigger part of Facebook’s offerings, they said.

Last month, Campbell Brown, the former NBC and CNN journalist who was the architect of Facebook News, announced she took on a new, broader role overseeing global media partnerships, which encompasses tie-ups with everything from sports leagues to film studios.The Information earlier reported that Facebook was reconsidering its payments to publishers and shifting its emphasis.

If Facebook pulls back on its payments to U.S. news publishers, it would represent the end of a certain detente in the fraught relationship between online content makers and the social-media giant.

Publishers that have struggled to compete for digital ad revenue with Google and Facebook have criticized the tech giants for not paying for the news content that is featured and shared on their platforms. Dow Jones parent News Corp. was among the most vocal critics.

The Journal gets the bulk of the Dow Jones payments, which are made up mostly of cash but also include other forms of compensation, such as credits for marketing on Facebook, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal encompasses other Dow Jones publications as well as the New York Post, which is owned by News Corp.

Many other U.S. news publishers are getting payments from Facebook to have their content featured in its news tab, but they only get a fraction of the sums paid to the Washington Post, the New York Times and Dow Jones, according to people familiar with the matter. Facebook is paying more for access to paywalled content, while publishers whose stories are accessible for free are getting less money, a person familiar with the deals said. The smaller deals usually are for less than $3 million a year, the people said.

Dow Jones, the New York Times and the Washington Post declined to comment. The Times last year had revenue of $2.1 billion, while Dow Jones reported $1.7 billion in revenue for its last fiscal year, which ended June 30, 2021.

Facebook announced the launch of Facebook News—which users can find as a tab on the mobile app or website, similar to the Facebook Watch tab for video—in the fall of 2019, on the heels of widespread criticism about the impact that Facebook and Google’s growing share of the digital ad market was having on news organizations—particularly local ones. By 2018, Facebook and Google were getting 77% of the digital advertising revenue in local markets, and 1,800 U.S. newspapers had closed down since 2004.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
META n.a. 175.57 -8.43 -4.58%

All the while, Facebook was facing a continuing regulatory onslaught around the world. Regulators in the European Union, France, the U.K., Australia and the U.S. took steps aimed at forcing the platforms such as Google and Facebook to pay publishers for news content available on their services. Facebook opposed a law that passed in Australia so vehemently that it moved to block the publication of any news story on its platform in the country.

In the process, it also ended up shutting down the Facebook pages of many of Australia’s health, charity and emergency services for five days—a move that whistleblowers allege was deliberate and that Facebook described as an accident.

This spring, a revamped version of the U.S. legislation aimed at forcing the platforms to negotiate payment with publishers began circling in Congress, this time with a provision that would require the platforms to engage in baseball-style, “final offer” arbitration—the same measure that prompted Facebook to pull news in Australia. Canada, meanwhile, recently proposed a law modeled on Australia’s.

Source: Facebook rethinks news deals and publishers could lose millions | Fox Business

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Expert Reveals How To Protect Your Finances From Volatile Market

Calamos Investments CEO John Koudounis argued on Sunday that market volatility will continue for “a long time,” but noted that the current situation presents buying opportunities.

“I don’t see it [market turbulence] going away,” Koudounis told “Fox News Live” on Sunday. “It depends how the Fed tries to land this. It’s going to be very difficult to have a soft landing. It’s never been done.”

“There will be some good times, there will be some bad times,” the CEO of the global investment firm specializing in investment management added. “Our advice to our customers, you have to be in it because the upside comes around, and you have to be invested.”

Koudounis provided the insight two days after the S&P 500, the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market, slipped into bear market territory before clawing back above that level.

The benchmark fell over 20% from its January high of 4,796.56 before erasing losses to close at 3,901.36. An official bear market would require the benchmark to close at or below 3,837.25.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which entered a bear market earlier this year and has fallen 29% year to date.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 31261.9 +8.77 +0.03%
SP500 S&P 500 3901.36 +0.57 +0.01%
I:COMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 11354.617127 -33.88 -0.30%

Koudounis stressed that the current situation “absolutely” presents “some value.”

“There’s been a rotation between the growth and value stocks,” he noted. “Now the growth stocks have been beaten up so much that active managers, the professionals, are starting to pick some and add to those positions. And the companies that are fundamental, have issues, they’ve lowered those positions.”

“So if you are an active manager, you’re actually looking at this as an opportunity to get rid of some companies that haven’t been doing well and add to the ones you think are going to do well,” Koudounis continued. “So there is opportunity out there and over the course of time if you have a balanced portfolio you’ll do fine.”

Markets have been experiencing volatility in recent weeks as concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes and high inflation continued to worry investors.

On Wednesday U.S. stocks saw steep selling as more retailers revealed the negative impact of inflation amounting to the worst day for stocks since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,100 points, or 3.6% on Wednesday.

Earlier this month it was revealed that inflation cooled on an annual basis for the first time in months in April, but rose more than expected as supply chain constraints, the Russian war in Ukraine and strong consumer demand continued to keep consumer prices elevated.

The Labor Department announced earlier this month that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 8.3% in April from a year ago, below the 8.5% year-over-year surge recorded in March. Prices jumped 0.3% in the one-month period from March. Those figures were both higher than the 8.1% headline figure and 0.2% monthly gain forecast by Refinitiv economists.

The Federal Reserve faces the tricky task of cooling demand and prices without inadvertently dragging the economy into a recession. “Inflation is here, and it is very difficult for the Fed to control this,” Koudounis argued, stressing that everybody getting “hurt” by the price hikes.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to curbing the highest inflation in decades, indicating the central bank will raise interest rates as high as necessary in order to tame consumer prices.

Fed policymakers hiked the benchmark federal funds rate by a half point earlier this month, and Powell has all but promised that two, similarly sized increases are on the table at the forthcoming meetings in June and July. He echoed that sentiment on Tuesday as the Fed races to catch-up with runaway inflation and bring it back down to the 2% target.

Koudounis warned that “it is going to be difficult to avoid” a recession.  “We’re hoping that the Fed can avoid it,” he continued, noting the central bank is expected to raise rates at each upcoming meeting. “My guess is 50 basis points each time,” Koudounis said.

“If they keep course and stop buying and of course keep raising [rates] right through the end of the year, it is going to be tough to avoid it.”Koudounis added that he believes inflation will stick around and will not hit the Fed’s 2% target by the end of the year.

Source: Volatility in markets will stick around for ‘a long time’: Investment expert | Fox Business

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Global Stocks and Oil Prices Hit By Fears of a Beijing Lockdown

Global stocks and oil prices fell on Monday as rising Covid-19 cases in Beijing sparked fears that the Chinese capital could join Shanghai and other major cities in lockdown.

China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) sank 5.1% to close at a 22-month low. It was the worst day for the index since February 3, 2020, when the initial coronavirus outbreak first rocked the nation’s stock market. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 3.7%. Japan’s Nikkei (N225) dropped 1.9%, and Korea’s Kospi (KOSPI) lost 1.7%.

European stocks also opened sharply lower on Monday. The FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 2.1% in London, while Germany’s DAX (DAX) slid 1.5%. France’s CAC 40 (CAC40) dropped 2.2%, despite market relief at  Emmanuel Macron’s election victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.

The fall in Asian and European markets came after a grim session on Friday for US stocks. The Dow fell about 980 points, or 2.8%, following comments about likely aggressive interest rate hikes from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dropped more than 2.5%, too.

Fears about China’s worsening Covid-19 situation are adding to the downside momentum. On Monday, Dow futures were down 305 points, or 0.9%, while futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down 1%.

Beijing, the capital of China with 21 million residents, began mass testing over the weekend and shut down residential compounds, raising concerns that more stringent restrictions could soon be implemented in line with other Chinese cities.

“Although some parts of China have been under restrictions longer than Shanghai, Omicron’s arrival in Beijing would be an ominous development,” wrote Jeffrey Halley, senior market strategist for Oanda, on Monday.

“China is the world’s second-largest economy and has shown no signs it intends to live with the virus,” he said. “With that in mind, the likely pressure valve is going to be disruption to China’s export machine, and a cratering of consumer confidence.” Oil prices tumbled on Monday as worries about faster US rate increases and China’s slowdown weighed on sentiment.

Futures for US oil and Brent crude, the international benchmark, both fell more than 4%. “It seems that China is the elephant in the room and markets feel that slowing China growth could materially change the supply/demand equation on international markets,” Halley said. The pressure to contain the outbreak in Beijing comes as cases continue to grow in Shanghai.

The lockdown in Shanghai has already forced many factories to suspend production and made shipping delays worse, threatening to deal a hefty shock to its vast economy and place more strain on global supply chains. Shanghai reported more than 19,000 new cases and 51 deaths on Sunday.

Source: Global stocks and oil prices hit by fears of a Beijing lockdown – CNN

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Critics:

Oil prices opened slightly higher on Tuesday, after falling sharply the prior session on worries that continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China would eat into demand and as the U.S. dollar rose to a two-year high.

Brent crude futures settled 2.6% higher at $104.99 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate contracts settled the day 3.2%, or $3.16, higher at $101.70 per barrel.

Both contracts had settled down around 4% on Monday, with Brent down as much as $7 a barrel in the session and WTI dipping roughly $6 a barrel.

In China lockdowns to counter Covid in Shanghai have dragged into their fourth week. Meanwhile orders for mass testing, including in Beijing’s largest shopping district, have prompted fears of other Shanghai-style lockdowns.

“The hit from Chinese lockdowns is over a million barrels a day and the testing of 12 districts over the next five days will determine the next major move for crude prices,” wrote Edward Moya, a senior market analyst for OANDA in a note.

The U.S. dollar also hit a two-year high on Monday, making oil more expensive for other currency holders. “Supply fears are not the primary focus for energy traders, and now you have a surging dollar that is adding extra pressure across all commodities,” OANDA’s Moya said.

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