Bullish Jobs Prediction: Bank Of America Says Employment Will Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels By Year’s End

Daily Life in New York City Around The One-year Anniversary of The COVID-19 Shut Down

Following blockbuster data showing the U.S. added 917,000 jobs in March, analysts from Bank of America said they expect jobs to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year if that pace of improvement continues.

It’s a much more aggressive prediction than other experts, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department, have taken so far this year.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said that while he’s optimistic that hiring will pick up in the coming months, it’s “not at all likely” the U.S. will reach maximum employment this year.

In a hearing before Congress last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the economy may return to full employment next year.

Bank of America’s analysts said they expect “considerably more job creation” in the leisure and hospitality sectors—two areas hit hardest by the pandemic—in the months ahead as the U.S. economy reopens.

The growth Bank of America is predicting also comes with a risk, the analysts said: jobs could continue to accelerate beyond pre-pandemic levels right as trillions of dollars in stimulus spending kick in and the economy reopens in earnest.

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Employment Lawyer Alex Lucifero answers questions about Employee Rights When Businesses Reopen during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada. Can my employer discipline or fire me if I don’t feel safe returning to work when the business reopens? Can my employer recall me from work and put me in a different job, or give me different responsibilities? Can my employer recall younger employees before older employees, in an effort to protect the latter from COVID-19? Lucifero, an Ottawa employment lawyer and partner at Samfiru Tumarkin LLP, joined Annette Goerner on CTV Ottawa Morning Live, where he answered those questions and more.

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All those factors could lead to dangerous overheating and inflation, which could destabilize an already fragile economic recovery and rattle investors.

Crucial Quote

“We saw the economy gain traction in March as the American Rescue Plan moved and got passed, bringing new hope to our country,” President Biden said during prepared remarks on Friday. Biden’s flagship pandemic relief bill authorized another $1.9 trillion in federal stimulus spending.

Big Number

9.7 million. That’s how many people are now unemployed across the country, according to the Labor Department, down from 22 million at the onset of the crisis last spring.

Key Background

Biden unveiled his next legislative effort, the $2+ trillion American Jobs Plan, earlier this week. That plan is designed to revitalize American infrastructure and manufacturing and  jumpstart the transition to clean energy and industry. The Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce estimated that the plan would create or save 15 million jobs over a decade and that three-quarters of the infrastructure jobs it creates would be for workers with no more than a high school diploma.

Further Reading

The U.S. Added 916,000 Jobs In March As Labor Market Comes Roaring Back (Forbes)

The Economy Doesn’t Need The Fed’s Easy Monetary Policy To Keep Booming, BofA Says (Forbes)

$1,400 Stimulus Checks Are Already Working As Credit, Debit Spending Surges 45%, BofA Says (Forbes)

Powell And Yellen Praise Aggressive Stimulus Spending, Acknowledge Incomplete Economic Recovery In Congressional Testimony (Forbes)

I’m a breaking news reporter for Forbes focusing on economic policy and capital markets. I completed my master’s degree in business and economic reporting at New York University. Before becoming a journalist, I worked as a paralegal specializing in corporate compliance.

Source: Bullish Jobs Prediction: Bank Of America Says Employment Will Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels By Year’s End.

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More Contents:

107.5 million private sector workers in pandemic-essential industries in 2019 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
http://www.bls.gov – February 22
[…] CHART IMAGECHART DATA Share of private employment in pandemic-essential industries, by recommended vaccination phase, 2019 Select vaccination phase: Private employment in pandemic-essential industries, by recommended vaccination phase, 2019 State Phase 1a Phase 1b Phase 1 […]
N/A
January 2021 LFS Preview: Will Employment Take Another Hit?
http://www.hiringlab.org – February 2
[…] As a result, employment in pandemic-exposed services could take another hit […]
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Young people with disabilities face “barriers to employment” in pandemic recession | by Nathan Clarke | Jan, 2021
nathanclarke735.medium.com – January 5
Young people with disabilities face “barriers to employment” in pandemic recession Experts fear that the suspension of assisted employment schemes will leave young peopl […]
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German manufacturing momentum will propel the economic recovery
frontierview.com – December 4, 2020
[…] Bank (ECB), introduced a mammoth stimulus package and further enhanced it in November to support employment in pandemic-affected sectors in 2021 […]
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The Digital Divide Hits U.S. Immigrant Households Disproportionately during the COVID-19 Pandemic
http://www.migrationpolicy.org – September 3, 2020
[…] Yet despite the fact that many immigrants have increased exposure to COVID-19 due to their employment in pandemic-response occupations, their reduced connectivity and familiarity with digital tools may preven […]
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Poll: 1 in 5 Hispanic families have lost employment in pandemic | Coronavirus | santafenewmexican.com
One-third of Hispanic parents or primary caregivers in New Mexico has had difficulty paying their rent or mortgage, while nearly half of them have seen their hours or pay cut…

Bill Gates Says You Must Offer This Perk if You Want to Hire the Best People

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Recruiting talent over the next decade will be challenging for many companies. As the work demographic continues to shift and technology advances at breakneck speed, traditional brick-and-mortar companies will be challenged to recruit and retain the best talent available.

Bill Gates understood this several years ago when he imparted on us wisdom that is now deemed conventional:

The competition to hire the best will increase in the years ahead. Companies that give extra flexibility to their employees will have the edge in this area.

The gig economy, remote work, compressed workweeks. It’s clear we have transitioned to an age where workers expect more flexibility. But while “flexibility” has increased substantially, the majority of companies today are either unable or unwilling to adapt to the lifestyle demands of young workers. In turn, they’re losing good talent to companies with more flexible options like remote work.

Why you should offer more flextime for employees

According to a recent study by FlexJobs, 84 percent of Millennials want more work-life balance and 54 percent want to work a flexible or alternative schedule.

According to Global Workplace Analytics, up to 90 percent of the U.S. workforce say they would like to “telework” at least part-time, with two to three days a week being the sweet spot for the right balance of “concentrative work (at home) and collaborative work (at the office).”

Other research from survey software firm Qualtrics found that roughly 76 percent of Millennials would take a pay cut to work for a company that offers flexible office hours.

So what are some tangible business reasons why companies should offer their employees flexible work options?

1. Longevity.

According to The Deloitte Global Millennial Survey 2019, Millennials and Gen Z may stay in a job for more than five years if their employers are flexible about where and when they work.

2. Job satisfaction.

According to a recent Staples study, a massive 90 percent of workers indicated that more flexible work arrangements will boost morale and increase their satisfaction at work–a key component of employee recruitment and retention.

3. Companies save money.

It’s a simple equation: Healthier employees lead to more engaged and productive employees. Lost productivity due to poor health costs U.S. businesses nearly $226 billion per year. Companies also pay less in health coverage for healthier employees.

4. Improve employee retention.

Companies with no flexible working policies in place are losing valuable talent. Per the Staples study listed above, 67 percent of employees would consider leaving their jobs if work arrangements become too fixed.

5. Recruit better talent.

Flexible working will also improve your recruitment metrics. A 2018 Zenefits survey found 77 percent of employees list flexible work as a top perk when evaluating job opportunities.

6. Employees are more productive.

People who have some control over their schedules are more productive, plain and simple. Ron Friedman, award-winning social psychologist and author of The Best Place to Work: The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Workplacesaid in an interview, “We have decades of studies showing that people are happier, healthier, and more productive when they feel autonomous.” Friedman explains that autonomy is a basic psychological need so that “the more autonomous we feel, the more likely we are to be engaged.”

The future is here

Compared with five years ago, 40 percent more companies are now offering flexible work arrangements as the demand for remote and flexible arrangements rise in unprecedented numbers. Firms not jumping on the bandwagon will be at a significant disadvantage as younger generations seek out flexible work options.

The New Hiring Practices At McKinsey And Goldman Sachs

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Have you ever stopped to think how absurd recruiting is? You meet a company for a total of two hours or at most two days and then you—and the company—basically have to decide if you want to enter a long, committed relationship.

The hiring market is so inefficient that when a firm finds a suitable candidate it’s tempting to extend an offer. Likewise, when a candidate finds an fine job, one for which they may still feel overqualified, they are tempted to sign on the dotted line.

But even when both parties choose to swipe right, the stakes for committing are very high.

The Cost Of Recruiting

Accepting a job is like a legal marriage. You can usually leave at any time, but the associated costs can really add up. Job switching costs for an employee, both in time and money, are high. Firing, for a firm, is equally expensive. There’s the severance cost, the training costs, the cost of the burden placed on existing employees who have to temporarily pick up the slack. And in countries with rigid employee protection regulation, firing costs easily skyrocket.

In a recent Harvard Business Review article on recruiting, the Society for Human Resource Management estimated that firms spend “an average of $4,129 per job in the United States…and many times that amount for managerial roles—and the United States fills a staggering 66 million jobs a year.”

I remember reading a statistic a while back that a recruiter is considered to be really good if ~60% of their hires are successful. That means that a really good recruiter makes a hiring mistake 40% of the time. 40%! Imagine if a doctor made a mistake 40% of the time. Or a pilot made an error 40% of the time. You might find that to be overstated, but hiring bad people can be just as fatal for an organization.

When you’re young, there’s often a taboo around getting a job through a connection. But when you’re old(er), you’re foolish if you try to get a job without a connection. Companies don’t want to risk hiring someone bad; they would much rather hire someone who comes with a reference, a known quantity. But this introduces all sorts of unconscious bias into the process and essentially makes an organization a vehicle for sourcing talent from a small pool of networks.

Many companies try to introduce new hiring practices to address the inherent problems in hiring. Young tech startups, probably with the influence of Google, have introduced a variety of new ways to recruit talent. But I was interested to see the change seep into the psyche of two of the most reputable companies in business: the consulting firm McKinsey and the financial services firm Goldman Sachs.

McKinsey’s Problem Solving Video Game

McKinsey recently introduced a digital assessment gaming tool. The tool is a video game of sorts. It’s 60 minutes long and consists of three separate blocks. Each section simulates a bunch of different scenarios that tests candidates on their way of thinking and decision-making. The assessment explicitly doesn’t test business knowledge. The game was designed to identify “how you think and approach problems regardless of your background.”

In its most basic form, management consulting is the business of problem-solving. Developing a tool that tests candidates on the core of the business while trying to remove cognitive bias is, in my opinion, a great idea. Cognitive psychology has proved that left to our own fallible human devices, we choose to hire people who are most like us, which perpetuates a single-minded culture.

But the test serves another, perhaps unintentional, purpose: it attracts candidates who find this type of assessment appealing. I admit as a consutlant, as soon as I heard about this new simulation, I wanted to apply to McKinsey just so I could take the test. Some people hate the unknown and ambiguity of problem-solving. But as a manager, I need to hire people who are easily captivated by the challenge of that ambiguity.

Goldman Sachs’s Virtual Interviewing Process

Goldman Sachs is another establishment that has rejiggered its recruiting process over the last few years with the introduction of video interviewing.

Historically, Goldman used to send recruiters and hiring managers to top “feeder” schools to recruit―the arguable assumption being that they would find the highest concentration of talented, high-caliber candidates at those schools. This approach is naturally constrained by the number of people you can push out to interview. The big advantage of their new virtual approach is they can conduct video interviews with potential hires from a much broader and more diverse range of schools and backgrounds.

Global Head of Human Capital Management at Goldman Sachs, Danes Homes, wrote in a recent Harvard Business Review article:

In 2015, the year before we rolled out this platform, we interviewed fewer than 20% of all our campus applicants; in 2018 almost 40% of the students who applied to the firm participated in a first-round interview.

Second, we now encounter talent from places we previously didn’t get to. In 2015 we interviewed students from 798 schools around the world, compared with 1,268 for our most recent incoming class. In the United States, where the majority of our student hires historically came from ‘target schools,’ the opposite is now true.”

“Talent Is Everywhere, Opportunity Is Scarce”

I’m not saying that these hiring techniques are necessarily best-in-class, but they are a recognition that more breadth and diversity are needed. It is especially notable that these older, more established companies are adopting hiring changes, usually the last to make changes.

The irony in this shift is that it is also a recognition that intelligence, work ethic, and innovative thinking are not a function of where you went to school or what brand-name firm you work for. But, as the oft-quoted saying goes, while talent is everywhere, opportunity is scarce.


Follow Stephanie Denning on Twitter:   @stephdenningAnd Also Read:

How Basecamp Rejects Workaholism And Still Drives Results

The Netflix Pressure-Cooker: A Culture That Drives Performance

My writing explores the choices firms and leaders make and the impact of those choices. I work as a management consultant specializing in growth strategy.

Source: The New Hiring Practices At McKinsey And Goldman Sachs

The Top 25 Skills Businesses Need Right Now – Larry Kim

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A whopping 94% of recruiters actively use LinkedIn to vet candidates. Professionals use LinkedIn when looking for new jobs and to showcase a career and stand out to recruiters. Does your profile have what it takes to stand out from the masses? LinkedIn released a report that reveals the top 25 in-demand business skills searched for in the hiring process. Discover all 25 skills, plus key jobs that use those skills and the salary (national average) of a U.S. professional in that industry according to Glassdoor…..

Read more: https://smallbiztrends.com/2018/09/skills-in-demand.html

 

 

 

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