20 Great Stock Ideas For 2020, From The Best Fund Managers

The stock market went on a tear in 2019. Major indexes hit numerous record highs in the second half of the year with the S&P 500 rising more than 29%. This puts it on track to be the best yearly return since at least 2013.

As stocks continued to rise, Wall Street put recession fears on the back burner: The market has been boosted by the fact that the U.S. economy’s moderate expansions holds steady. Solid consumer spending, a robust labor market and now an apparent recovery in the housing market have all allayed investor fears. There has been renewed trade optimism on Wall Street as well, thanks to the signing of several new trade agreements—a revised North American trade agreement and the long-awaited phase one trade deal with China—in the closing months of 2019. Going into 2020, the market is optimistic that economic growth can continue, especially with diminishing tariff pressures and a Federal Reserve on hold.

We queried Morningstar to identify some of the best performing fund managers, all of whom beat their benchmarks both in 2019 as well as on a longer-term basis over either a three-year, five-year or ten-year period. Below are the portfolio managers and their best ideas for the coming year.

Chris Retzler

Needham Small-Cap Growth Fund: A blend of growth and value small companies.

YTD: 53.5%, 5-year average annual return: 14.7%

Saxonburg, Pennsylvania-based II-VI is a global manufacturer of high-performance, high-tech specialty materials that go into a whole host of different industries and end markets, from consumer and communications to aerospace and defense. “It’s a broad economic play to the end markets that utilize their technologies,”  says Retzler, who highlights the “stellar management team” and its recent acquisition of optical communications manufacturer, Finisar.

While topline growth has been in the double-digits, that will accelerate thanks to cost savings and revenue synergies from integrating Finisar. While $1.4 billion revenue II-VI has exposure to trade relations with China, which weighed on the stock’s performance in the last few years, a thawing in those relations will brighten its outlook. Retzler expects growth to generate free cash that will ultimately “provide the opportunity to de-lever the balance sheet.”

Navigator Holdings (NVGS)

Reitzler calls $303 million (revenues) Navigator Holdings, an energy shipping business that delivers liquid propane gas (LPG), “a play on resurgence in global economic growth.” He expects it to be a beneficiary of thawing trade tensions and subsequent increased commodity sales: “If you see a recovery in emerging markets, which we think will begin to happen globally, LPG is key to energy usage in a great part of the world.” While Navigator Holdings has been under pressure for the last four years, investments the company has made in infrastructure and partnerships should begin to payout, Reitzler predicts, adding that the company has also expanded to new terminals that will allow it to export more products globally. Another catalyst is the “continued production of sizable energy byproducts within the U.S. that will need to be delivered to global markets.” As a heavy shipping company, there is debt on the business—but it’s manageable, says Reitzler.

Neal Rosenberg

Baron Growth Fund: Small-cap U.S. growth companies

YTD: 40.7%, 3-year average annual return: 19.8%

 

Vail Resorts (MTN)

This operator of  world-class mountain and ski resorts is divided into separate divisions for its resorts, hospitality and real estate. The company has seen continued growth in full season pass sales as well as early benefits from its mid-2019 acquisition of Peak Resorts, which helped integrate millions more people into its network. Rosenberg expects good earnings growth with robust free cash flow going forward. This could lead to opportunistic mergers, debt reduction and dividend growth. Vail, which had $2 billion in revenues in fiscal 2019, is very digitally focused and is increasing the number of skiers on season or day passes, using more data to do enhanced targeted marketing and increasing the skier experience to enable continued same store pricing increases.

CoStar Group (CSGP)

CoStar, is a $1.2 billion (revenues) provider of info analytics and online marketing services for commercial and multifamily real estate offices. Rosenberg expects organic revenue growth to accelerate toward 20% in 2020 and beyond, as the company continues to significantly expand its salesforce and enter new markets—selling to owners and investors rather than just brokers and property managers. Growth will also come from its Apartments.com division, which matches renters with landlords.  CoStar is also expanding internationally, moving beyond the U.S. and Canada to places like Western Europe. The company also has a pristine balance sheet and a huge amount of free cash flow.

Jeffrey James

Driehaus Small-Cap Growth Fund: Fast-growing small companies.

YTD: 40.4%, Average annual return since inception (2017): 26%

Everbridge (EVBG)

This cloud software company works with corporations, governments and their agencies to provide tools for mass notifications and population alerts. Its software helps alert employees or citizens of whatever is happening—from natural disasters to cyberattacks. According to James the $147 million (revs) company, which has yet to turn a profit, is growing at 30% per year, and is increasingly winning contracts with big companies and the Federal government. “It’s the next generation amber alert,” he describes. While Amber alerts, for example, are a homegrown custom government solution, Everbridge is far more sophisticated in its software, James says, since they are able to use various technologies—like location services—to notify people in a specific geographic area. He also highlights that the European Union’s mandate to select a mass notification system for all their member countries—where several have picked Everbridge thus far.

MyoKardia (MYOK)

This $3.5 billion market cap clinical-stage biotech company focuses on precision medicine targeting genetic cardiovascular disease—the number one cause of death in the world. “Virtually all drugs that treat this do so indirectly by lowering cholesterol or treating symptoms,” James describes, “but MyoKardia is one of the first to target the source of the disease—the underlying genetic defects of the cardiac function.” One disease it’s targeting, for instance, is hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (widening of heart valves). Going into next year, James highlights a phase three study that is expected to read out well, as the previous phases have. “For a biotech company of this size and this pipeline, its balance sheet is quite strong,” he says (Myokardia has no revenues or profits yet). “That should be sufficient for the company to fund studies and develop its pipeline for the foreseeable future.”

Joe Dennison 

Zevenbergen Growth Fund: Large-cap consumer and tech companies.

YTD return: 38.4%, 3-year average annual return: 24.3%

Exact Sciences (EXAS)

Madison, Wisconsin’s Exact Science’s core product, Cologuard, has seen “strong organic growth” thanks to an 80% increase in revenue this year—and is expected to hit that again next year, according to Dennison. Cologuard allows for at-home stool screening as an alternative to getting a colonoscopy. Company’s partnership with Pfizer—a co-promotional sales agreement—has been beneficial, since it helps give Exact Sciences access to the pharma giant’s salespeople, marketing expertise and relationships. Exact Sciences has continued to grow its network of doctors, adding new primary care and GI specialists. Dennison says there’s much to look forward to next year: The company plans to test Cologuard 2.0—a more accurate and economical version of its signature product—and is reportedly planning on coming out with a diagnostic for liver cancer. “It’s making the right investments to drive growth for the next decade,” says Dennison. “The competitive chatter has been misunderstood and weighed on the stock, but we think that could clear up.”

Wayfair (W)

A market leader in online home furnishings, Wayfair has been popular among young consumers as they move out and buy homes. He emphasizes that the company has revenue growth in the mid-20% range, though losses are higher since its still in investment mode—but profitability is expected in the next five years.

Wayfair is further boosted by international investments, primarily in Western Europe, “where they’re following the same playbook that’s been successful domestically,” according to Dennison. Competition comes from brick-and-mortar players and larger players like Amazon, he says.

Stephen DeNichilo

Federated Kaufmann Large Cap Fund: Large-cap growth companies.

YTD: 37.7%, 10-year average annual return: 14.9%

Vulcan Materials (VMC)

DeNichilo likes this $4.8 billion (revenues) materials company, the largest producer of construction aggregates in the U.S., because it is entering “an exciting period of both increasing volume and pricing.” The business is growing thanks to a strong focus on infrastructure spending at the state level—driven by increased gas taxes, says DeNichilo. What’s more, “solid federal support” for infrastructure on both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill will be an added boost going into next year.

Ingersoll-Rand (IR)

This 149-year old company is a leading producer of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment globally. It will spin off its more cyclical compressor business to Gardner Denver in the first quarter of 2020. That would leave $16 billion (revenues) Ingersoll-Rand as a “pure play HVAC company,” not to mention one with high market share, powerful recurring revenue—from installing, replacing and servicing parts, strong pricing power and “a balance sheet prepared to participate in further HVAC industry consolidation.”

Kimberly Scott

Ivy Mid-Cap Growth Fund: Fast-growing mid-cap companies.

YTD return: 37.6%, 3-year average annual return: 20.1%

National Vision Holdings (EYE)

This $1.7 billion (sales) optical retailer sells eyeglasses, contact lenses and other products, as well as offering comprehensive eye exams. The company has seen continued growth as it serves an important medical need at good value, according to Scott. “It’s a compelling story in that it has a unique position as a growth retailer outside of e-commerce,” she points out. As the company brings in more customers and gains market share, comparable store sales have increased.

Overall revenue is growing by just over 10%, and the company continues to deleverage, Scott says. While risks include tariff headwinds and concerns that Walmart may not renew a strategic partnership to operate its Vision Centers, she believes that these are priced into the stock. The company is also starting to leverage its new investments in areas like cybersecurity and lab research for making new eyewear.

CoStar Group (CSGP)

A leading provider of commercial real estate data and marketplace listing services, Washington, D.C.-based CoStar has “high-caliber growth and great cash flow,” according to Scott. She highlights the company’s founder-led management team and pristine balance sheet—with no debt. CoStar’s revenue has been growing at a 20% clip and Scott expects continued innovation in new areas including a recent acquisition of Smith Travel Research, which will allow CoStar to begin expanding into data and analytics for the hospitality sector. The market usually backs off from the stock when the company announces new investment cycles, as it just has, she points out, but while this hurts near-term margins it actually sets CoStar up for its next phase of growth. The company’s expectation is that the business will have $3 billion in revenue by the end of 2023.

Scott Klimo

Amana Growth Fund: Low-debt, high-growth large companies; Run according to Islamic principles.

YTD: 31.7%, 3-year average annual return: 19.9%

Sextant Growth Fund: Low-turnover portfolio of large growth companies.

YTD: 35.3%, 3-year average annual return: 17.9%

Lowe’s Companies (LOW)

Klimo calls Lowe’s “a compelling self-help story” that will benefit from a strong housing market next year, supported by low interest rates. Lowe’s new CEO Marvin Ellison has improved operating efficiencies and Klimo highlights new investments in tech, like migrating systems to the cloud and improving online experience, as another boost for the company. What’s more, while “nothing is bulletproof,” and recession and housing market risks are somewhat mitigated by the cost cutting and other internal improvements, which should protect margins,” according to Klimo.

Ally Financial (ALLY)

Financial service firm Ally dabbles in everything from car loans and online banking to mortgages and loans. It is a leader in auto lending, particularly in used car financing: “An area that takes some skill.” Klimo points out that “even if you think about potential disruptions like new car prices increasing, the secondhand market is still attractive.” Ally has good prospects for growth, he says, with the general consensus for the economy looking pretty good and the housing market expected to be solid. The stock has a low PE of under 8 time trailing 12 month earnings,  a 2.2% dividend yield and earnings are growing at 10% annually. Says Klimo, “What’s really remarkable is the valuation that its trading at, despite the fact that the stock is up 37% this year.”

Tom Slater

Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund: Concentrated portfolio of growth companies.

YTD Return: 29.4%, Average annual return since inception (2017): 20.7%

 

Yext (YEXT)

New York City’s Yext is a small-cap technology company that allows businesses to use its cloud-based network of search engines, maps and other software to boost awareness and build their brand. As more companies integrate digital components into their business strategies, Yext gives them the tools to do so, as well as share information with publishers in a way that becomes accessible to end users. Yext Answers, which is aimed at streamlining consumer questions about different companies or products.

“While Yext is still a loss making business—and path to profitability has become the buzzword in the aftermath of WeWork—we’re happy to tolerate that if we can see the trajectory of growth going forward,” according to Slater. “We see them having a really big addressable market in the long term.”

MarketAxess (MKTX)

This fintech company operates an electronic trading platform for institutional credit markets, bringing digital tools to bond trading. “What’s interesting here is that we’ve seen equity markets move to digital trading, but that’s been a much harder problem to solve for bonds—as they’re generally much less liquid,” Slater points out. Digitizing these markets is a big win for asset owners because it takes out the cost aspect of intermediation that’s associated with traditional bond trading. MarketAxess has topline growth of at least 15% going into next year, accompanied by very high margins of around 50%, both of which are likely to grow in the future, Slater forecasts.

Chase Sheridan and Greg Steinmetz

Sequoia Fund: Run by RCG investment committee since 2016; Focus on undervalued companies.

YTD return: 29.3%, 10-year average annual return: 11.5%

Credit Acceptance (CACC)

Credit Acceptance Corp. is a subprime auto loan lender that the Sequoia fund likes to think of as “the best house in a tough neighborhood.” The company is countercyclical, as it doubled its profits during the financial crisis according to Sheridan and Steinmetz. They emphasize that Credit Acceptance doesn’t face the same set of risks as a typical subprime lender, thanks to a “portfolio program” with its dealers where it shares both the costs and payouts of loan underwriting. That means that in a downturn, Credit Acceptance will suffer less than its peers, and it can use those periods of stress to gain more market share. The company has been growing—earnings were up 22% in 2019—and it has room to continue to do so without M&A. While some bad actors in the car loan industry prey on the working poor, “Credit Acceptance Corp plays by the rules and plays fairly,” Sheridan and Steinmetz describe. “They have excellent computer systems that keep their collection agents within the bounds of what the government allows them to do.”

Alphabet (GOOGL)

“Sometimes a good idea is right in front of your nose,” says Sheridan and Steinmetz. “Alphabet’s balance sheet ( with $130 billion in cash) is like Fort Knox, and the resilience and quality of the business is extraordinary.”The company has averaged near 20% growth, and its “search revenue is driven by mobile and Youtube in terms of its fastest growing segments.” With $25 billion spent on research and development per year—second in the world behind Amazon—”that’s basically Dell Labs and Xerox Park on steroids,” according to Sheridan and Steinmetz. “Google’s competitive strengths are nearly insurmountable in its core business of advertising,” they point out. The tech giant also has ambitions to move up the ladder in the burgeoning business of cloud computing, where it currently ranks behind Amazon and Microsoft.

Chris Mack

Harding Loevner Global Equity Fund: High-quality growth companies.

YTD: 28.5%, 5-year average annual return: 10.2%

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal is a “household name,” but the general opportunity here is the “under penetration of digital transformation in financial services,” according to Mack. It’s a “long tail opportunity,” especially given that some 85% of the world’s transactions are still settled in cash. What’s different, he points out, is that PayPal is crucially partnering with more financial institutions and increasing its number of merchant accounts.

Partnerships with Bank of America and HSBC, for example, have started to pay off as they make PayPal an option in their digital wallet offerings. Mack emphasizes that PayPal’s large user base and the scale of transactions its processes, which are both growing near 20%, is another positive. While the company is up against some other big tech players, like Apple, “there’s room for more than one winner here,” Mack says.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Vertex is a $56 billion market cap biotech company focused on drugs to treat cystic fibrosis. Mack sees it as an overlooked growth opportunity, “it’s overlooked because of its small addressable population—of 100,000 our so globally—in the scheme of things.” But when thinking about pharmaceuticals and drug pricing, “this is a company that is delivering value,” he says. It has taken an existing set of approved drugs on the market and added a new one: While they can reach about 56% of existing cystic fibrosis, Vertex’s new “triple combination” drug combination to treat the disease will see that number rise to around 90%, according to Mack. Although the drug is expensive and patients are on them for life, a rising life expectancy and number of treatable cases bode well for Vertex. The company is profitable, with good margins and is growing by over 25%.

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I am a New York—based reporter for Forbes, covering breaking news—with a focus on financial topics. Previously, I’ve reported at Money Magazine, The Villager NYC, and The East Hampton Star. I graduated from the University of St Andrews in 2018, majoring in International Relations and Modern History. Follow me on Twitter @skleb1234 or email me at sklebnikov@forbes.com

Source: 20 Great Stock Ideas For 2020, From The Best Fund Managers

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It’s August, and All of Europe Is on Vacation. How Do You Run Your Global Business?

Paid vacation time is mandatory in the European Union–four weeks is a minimum. That number can seem crazy to people in the United States, where it takes 20 years of service to reach an average of 20 vacation days a year–and even when we have it, we don’t use it all.

But, in my experience, Europe embraces vacation–sometimes in ways that make no sense. I’ve frequently found restaurants that close for two weeks during peak tourist season–because the owners want to take their own vacation time. I’d think they would close in the offseason and make money while they could, but the vacation culture is strong.

This summer, my family is basically staying put, for a variety of reasons. We’re making a couple of short trips, but otherwise staying in our home in Switzerland (which, admittedly, is a prime vacation spot in and of itself). And it’s impossible to get anything done.

My lawyer has been on vacation for the past three weeks and will be back next week. I have some things I need her to look at, and they have to wait.

Getting a doctor’s appointment? Good luck! At least the walk-in clinic runs year-round.

While this affects my day-to-day life because I’m physically here, it can also affect your business, even if you’re based in the United States. When someone says, “The Geneva office is closed for three weeks,” they aren’t joking, and no one around here even bats an eyelash. So, how do you do the international part of your business when everyone else is at the beach? Here are some ideas:

Plan ahead

This is going to happen every year. Some countries are worse than others, with everyone going at the same time. One of the problems is that European schoolchildren tend to have shorter summer vacations–six weeks is common–compared with the 10 to 12 weeks American schoolchildren get. Don’t cry for the poor, suffering schoolchildren here–they get an additional eight weeks throughout the school year.

But those six weeks are going to vary from country to country. German and British schools tend to get out at the end of July, while Swiss schools close the last week in June. So, you’ll have better luck with your London office in July than you will with your Swiss office. Go ahead and ask when peak vacation season is and plan accordingly.

Partner with larger companies

While small businesses can be excellent partners, if you will need people year-round, without fail, a large company will be a better bet than a small one. The multinational corporation isn’t going to shut down its Paris office for the summer, but the small business might close its doors for the entire month of August. Ask when you are building relationships. They won’t think to bring it up, because it’s often a normal part of doing business here.

Embrace vacation yourself

Go. Take a vacation. Step away from the office and your phone and your laptop. Europeans have proved that the world doesn’t end if you go on a vacation. If you’re good at what you do, people will be waiting for you when you get back. It’s OK to take some downtime.

Just make sure that if you do come to Europe for your vacation that the restaurants will be open in the small village you thought looked charming. Otherwise, you may be miserable during your vacation.

By: Suzanne Lucas, Freelance writer @RealEvilHRLady

Source: It’s August, and All of Europe Is on Vacation. How Do You Run Your Global Business? | Inc.com

Brazil Stock Market Tanks Amid Petrobras Scandal That Keeps On Giving

Well, that didn’t last long. Brazil is no longer the darling of emerging markets, with stocks crashing over 5% on Friday . Blame the political class, again.

There are two reasons for today’s correction. One was an immediate over-reaction to news headlines, the other is a rethinking of key market-friendly reforms needed in Brazil this year.

Yesterday’s arrest of former president Michel Temer reminded everyone that the Petrobras Car Wash scandal, the very scandal that led to two years of recession and a never-ending political crisis, will pull the rug out from under this country in seconds flat. Brazil stocks are now underperforming. But just wait until investors price in a failed pension reform, which is probably just three months away. I think that is already starting to happen and Temer’s arrest was just reminder that Brazil is in crisis-mode, making it difficult to govern.

Temer was pulled in on Thursday by Federal Police officers for his role in the Petrobras crime spree. They said he helped run an “organized crime” ring within the government: a system of pay-to-play contracts with civil engineering firms like Odebrecht building all sorts of stuff for Petrobras and skimming millions of dollars off the top. Dozens of A-list executives have been jailed now for at least three years. And yadda yadda yadda. … Temer was next in line.

To date, of the top political leaders in charge during the Petrobras contract-rigging scheme, only ex-president Dilma Rousseff is still standing. She desperately tried to become senator of her home state of Minas Gerais last October but came in third place, probably not because she loved politics or had nothing better to do for work. Now that she is a private citizen, like Temer, she has lost political immunity.

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Temer: Petrobras presidential jailbird No. 2. AP Photo/Eraldo Peres

Dilma was impeached in a somewhat farcical April 2016 vote by the lower house of Congress for breaching budget laws. She was later indicted in August of that year, making her vice president, Temer, the new interim President. Her impeachment had nothing to do with Petrobras, though the people who instigated it did, with one of them, House Speaker Eduardo Cunha … in jail.

Brazil spent much of the last two and a half years in political chaos because of Petrobras.

Temer was the most disliked president in Brazilian history, with an approval rating struggling to get over 10%. When the election season began in 2018, it became clear that no one from the parties associated with Petrobras was going to win.

They tried hard. Lawyers for jailed ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva worked overtime trying to convince the United Nations and media influencers from London to New York that he was an innocent man, jailed for his politics. His handpicked successor was Dilma. His second handpicked successor was a former São Paulo mayor, Fernando Haddad. Haddad took it upon himself to admit that he was not his own man, even going so far as printing up and wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the ridiculous campaign slogan: “Haddad is Lula.” He visited Lula in jail for campaign advice. And so as while rubbing the face of the electorate with indicted Petrobras criminals, Haddad got beat by a family-values conservative named Jair Bolsonaro who symbolized the boiled-over anger of those who had had it with anyone affiliated with embattled oil company.

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A supporter of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva cries in hopes of his release outside the federal police department where Lula is serving a 12-year sentence for corruption in Curitiba, Brazil, on  Dec. 19, 2018. No one has heard from him or about him since the start of the new year. AP Photo/Denis Ferreira

By The Way, Where’s Lula?

Lula has been totally absent from the headlines. The biggest fish fried by the Federal Police made himself part of the daily news cycle in the fall of 2018. The New York Times gave him op-ed space where he sold his political persecution story to the world. (I tried to get an opposing view in the NYT, arguing that he was not a political prisoner, but they rejected it. Tudo bem.)

Now, the disgraced founder of the Workers’ Party is spending the next 12 years in jail, at least. No one is outside his prison quarters cheering “Good morning, president Lula” anymore. He is alone and—mostly—forgotten.

His lawyers are no longer blasting reporters’ Whatsapp accounts with their latest filings of a habeas corpus or a statement by someone who works for the UN Human Rights Commission saying that the Petrobras investigators used their legal powers to jail him unlawfully. Those days are suddenly gone. And they are gone, obviously, because the election is over and the Workers’ Party lost. Lula’s “political persecution” was what it was: a political campaign for the Workers’ Party.

The Car Wash investigation isn’t picking parties to plunder.

Temer’s Democratic Movement Party, a big-tent party of wealthy Brazilian oligarchs, one of the oldest parties in the country, also lost big in last year’s election because of Petrobras. In fact, every party that was part of the government, even those that were part of the majority opposition, got handed their walking papers because of this scandal.

It is no surprise that Temer was arrested. If the courts don’t get you, the voters will.

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Supporters of presidential candidate of the Workers’ Party Fernando Haddad, dressed in a banner written in Portuguese: “Haddad is Lula 13. AP Photo/Eraldo Peres

Brazil’s new government rose to power out of sheer hatred of politicians like Temer and Lula. But this new government is surrounded by noise. Temer’s arrest will likely push Bolsonaro’s already declining public opinion polls lower, especially if Brazilians do not see their economic outlook improving.

Some 68% view Bolsonaro as either “good” or “very good,” with numbers for “very good” declining 15 points since his inauguration in January.

At the start of the year, Jan Dehn, head of research for the Ashmore Group, a $74 billion emerging markets asset manager in London, told me he was giving Bolsonaro until the end of the first half to get something done — on pension reform, in particular. That has been the one issue propping up Bolsonaro’s stock price. As soon as the market feels pension reform is in jeopardy, Brazil’s stock market turns the other way, and Bolsonaro is governing over political crisis and weakening investor sentiment, not much different than Temer did.

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Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president, said of Temer’s arrest: “Each person has to be responsible for their actions.” Andre Coelho/Bloomberg

© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP

Bolsonaro: Governing Above The Noise

It is difficult to govern in Brazil due to all the different political alliances. This is not a two-party system. Considering the difficulties already involved in the Brazilian congress, throw political crisis on top of that and it becomes even harder.

Bolsonaro was relatively quiet on Temer’s arrest, preferring to say that, “Each person should be held responsible for their actions.”

Bolsonaro wasn’t elected on an economic platform. He was always an anti-Lula, law-and-order vote.

His government’s economic team is led by BTG Pactual founder Paulo Guedes, a University of Chicago-educated markets guy who has set the course for a somewhat overambitious list of economic reforms. Bolsonaro basically put Guedes in charge of the market.

Given the complex process in approving Guedes’ measures, from pension reforms to privatization, delays are more likely today because of uncertainty surrounding Petrobras investigations than they were last week. The Car Wash investigations are not over, and that means key members of congress could, in theory, be focused on other matters, or perhaps, lose their post in key cabinet positions in worst case scenarios.

Bolsonaro’s small political party—the Social Liberal Party—was not part of the Petrobras scandal, so it is possible they will not be scrambling like the congressional leaders were under Temer’s Administration when arrests were made of private citizens affiliated with them.

On the bright side, that means Bolsonaro has a better chance to inoculate himself from the Petrobras-related arrests like the eight individuals arrested on Thursday.

If he can do that, then smaller reforms like payroll tax breaks and Petrobras asset sales might get done earlier this year. Pension reform is unlikely to go anywhere until the end of the year, Morgan Stanely analysts said in a report. This is a very different view from a month ago when consensus estimates were for some type of pension reform to be competed by July.

The rest of Bolsonaro’s economic agenda depends on how well he can separate himself and his team from the Petrobras brat pack. He will have to remind them that he is president because he was never part of that group in the first place.

For media or event bookings related to Brazil, Russia, India or China, contact Forbes directly or find me on Twitter at @BRICBreaker

I’ve spent 20 years as a reporter for the best in the business, including as a Brazil-based staffer for WSJ. Since 2011, I focus on business and investing in the big eme…

Source: Brazil Stock Market Tanks Amid Petrobras Scandal That Keeps On Giving

The Yield Curve Just Inverted, Putting The Chance Of A Recession At 30%

The interest rate on the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond just fell below the rate on the 3-month bill in response to the Fed’s March announcement. This is called yield curve inversion as defined by Arturo Estrella and Frederic Mishkin. It implies a 25%-30% probability of a recession on a 12-month view. Their research can be found here.

As economic relationships go, the yield curve has a good track record. You can see the data below going back to 1982. Per the chart, using this series over recent history, the yield curve inverts before a recession reliably with no false positives. An impressive record. The blue line shows the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates. The black line is the zero bound. The shaded grey periods are historical recessions. Note that there is a lagged relationship here, recession historically occurs 6-18 months after inversion. So today’s yield curve suggests a fair chance of a 2019-2020 recession.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Risks Of Interpretation

Nonetheless, there are some risks with this approach. The first is we’re looking at a limited run of data. There are only a few decades in the sample and a handful of recessions. We’re making a forecast here based on less than ten recessionary events, per the initial research and subsequent out-of-sample data. Plus there are countless pieces of economic data out there. Combining two of them and creating a good recession forecast is possibly due to data mining. For example Tyler Vigen’s site illustrates the problem, showing how correlations can be found between many things that have little basis in reality, such as an apparently strong relationship between mozzarella cheese consumption and sociology degrees. So even though the yield curve relationship looks robust, it has been plucked from hundreds of other relationships that could exist, but don’t look as meaningful. The human brain is adept at creating patterns where none exist.

Also, a 25-30% chance of recession is not that high. Going back from 1960 to 2018 we have 59 years of data. We’ve had U.S. recessions during 16 of those years. So even before any more sophisticated forecasting methods, your chance of being in a recession in any given year are 27%. There’s some auto-correlation there too, as recession years come in clusters, but still, saying the chance of recession coming within a year or so is around one in four isn’t that different from what history tells us regardless of what the economy is doing. Of course, even at a 30% probability the chances are roughly twice as high that a recession does not occur.

Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a key target of avoiding a recession in order to maintain full employment. This one of their key policy targets. The Fed are quite capable of learning. The increasing emphasis on the yield curve has not gone unnoticed by the Fed. In fact, the initial research here was published by the New York Fed itself. So unlike in the past, the Fed may be able to take corrective action, which was exactly what Chairman Powell was looking to stress in the Fed’s March meeting release. The Fed’s challenge is obvious but not simple, a few quarters ago the markets were spooked by a potential stack of rate hikes in 2019 that could risk recession, so the Fed changed course. Yet, in doing so they have helped create an inverted yield curve, introducing another set of recessionary fears.

However, the risk here is the markets are capable of learning too, and there is some evidence that recessions are self-fulfilling, meaning that if enough decision makers expect a recession they may then take the very actions actions, such as temporarily cutting back on spending, that cause a recession to happen. In that light, yield curve inversion gaining more attention is bad news if it causes people to anticipate a recession, which then makes one more likely.

So yield curve inversion is not a positive sign for markets, but we may be overstating its importance. Also if the indicator is to be believed, we should watch out not just for inversion, but when the 3-month yield falls 1% or more below then 10-year yield, then our confidence in a recession around the corner should be quite a bit higher.

Articles educational only, not intended as investment advice.

Follow @simonwmoore on Twitter. Simon is Chief Investment Officer at Moola, and author of Digital Wealth (2015) and Strategic Project Portfolio Management (2009).

Source: The Yield Curve Just Inverted, Putting The Chance Of A Recession At 30%

Stocks To Buy While They’re Down Intel U.S. Steel State Street And Vipshop

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Many investors won’t buy a stock unless it shows “relative strength,” in other words, has been rising more than its peers lately. They are missing some great buying opportunities. Sometimes, I believe, the best time to buy a stock is when it is down. That’s why each quarter I compile a “Casualty List” of stocks that have been wounded and that I think have excellent recovery potential. This is the 62nd Casualty List I’ve prepared, beginning in 2000. The average 12-month gain on the past lists (which can be calculated for 58 columns) has been 18.5%. That compares with 10.2% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index……..

Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndorfman/2018/10/02/stocks-to-buy-while-theyre-down-intel-u-s-steel-state-street-and-vipshop/#209d458c3ed1

 

 

 

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