With interest rates set to double, hundreds of thousands of Londoners on ultra-cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals face an awful dilemma: pay hefty cancellation changes to refinance today, or hope they can afford to refinance when their current deals expire.
Prediction is very difficult,” quipped Nobel-winning physicist Niels Bohr, “especially if it’s about the future.” Unfortunately prediction is now a deeply practical matter for the nearly 1 million Londoners with a mortgage, many of whom currently benefit from cheap fixed-rate deals, but precious few of whom possess either a doctoral degree in quantum theory or one in macroeconomic forecasting.
A prolonged period of low interest rates – an anomaly by historic standards – has meant nearly 15 years of cheap debt. That’s allowed buyers to raise ever-larger mortgages, which in turn has driven up house prices – nowhere more so than in London.
Now challenged by inflation, the Bank of England last week demonstrated its resolve by increasing rates to 1.75 per cent. This heralds the fastest pace of rate rises since 1995. The market fully expects this to continue, with base rates quite possibly set to double again–or worse–over the next 12 months.
Central bankers don’t want to scare the horses. Rate hikes could yet trigger a house price crash which would cause all sorts of consumer misery, further deepening the long recession now thought likely. But they must be seen to do something to temper runaway inflation.
So much for the gloomy macroeconomics, let’s make this real. Consider Lydia, who commutes into London most days from the pleasant exurban town of Faversham in Kent, and who has an outstanding mortgage of £400k.
With 15 months left to run on her current 2 per cent fixed rate deal Lydia has been paying about £1,700 a month. If base rates do indeed double from their current levels, that would mean an increase in her monthly payments of £350 or so when she comes to refinance.
Lydia and her husband can’t really afford that. And interest rates could rise faster still, which would be apocalyptic for her family finances. The thought has her losing sleep.
Perhaps Lydia only has herself to blame. She took on a big mortgage when ultra-low rates meant that things could only ever go in one direction. But it’s not like the professionals saw this coming either.
Or she could refinance early. She can get a new deal today at a little under 3 per cent, and take the hit of £150 per month or so on her repayments. That’s painful, but is just about affordable for her with a little belt-tightening.
But this option means breaking her fixed deal, which comes at a real cost today of 3 per cent of the outstanding balance – a tidy £12,000. So, does Lydia stick with her current deal, facing an uncertain future increase, or does she twist, taking a big hit upfront to lock in a deal now? And what new fix period should she seek?
Ideally of course she wouldn’t need a doctoral degree in forecasting for this, she’d just speak to her broker. In fact, that was the first thing she tried. But, in her words, “The mortgage broker I spoke to wasn’t even willing to discuss this problem with me.”
Her experience is not atypical. Many brokers are at sea with this stuff. Some haven’t experienced rate rises in their working lives, let alone sudden rapid ones like this. And even for those that have, it’s hard for a regulated broker who is not an IFA to advise owners to pay a certain cost today for an uncertain future gain.
Nor is there much in the way of online tools to assist. The internet literally didn’t exist the last time a situation like this arose.
For what it’s worth, my business Nous.co was sufficiently animated by Lydia’s plight that we put together a calculator. It’s available for free at nous.co/refix. We don’t give mortgage advice, but we hope it is somewhat useful for anyone in a similar situation, if only to help think about what questions to ask of a broker (provided you can find one who’ll assist).
Mortgage-lending banks could also be pressed to do more. Early repayment charges certainly feel like ‘heads we win, tails you lose’ for lenders. Action now to cap early repayment charges, especially for those who aren’t even switching lenders but simply acting early to secure a new rate, might prevent a catastrophic spate of defaults.
In the meantime, just as the pandemic gave us all a crash course in epidemiology, so the cost-of-living crisis is making us all macroeconomists. Let’s just hope we aren’t also expected to become quantum physicists any time soon.
Everyone is hoping the market might be bottoming and by the recent actions of Bank of America clients, some evidently think the lows must be in sight. Last week, BofA customers splashed out $6.1 billion on US stocks, in what amounted to the third largest inflow since 2008.
While the bank has stated it is not as confident the bottom is quite so close, it’s not hard to see why investors feel the time is right to lean into equities. The widespread losses have left scores of beaten-down stocks looking quite cheap, so it might be time to get the stock picking rod out and go for some bottom fishing.
With this in mind, we dived into the TipRanks database and pulled out three such names that have taken it on the head in 2022. All are down by more than 40% this year, but that quirk aside, they also share another characteristic; all 3 are rated as Strong Buys by the analyst consensus and are projected to pick up steam in the months ahead. Let’s see why the Street’s experts think these names make good investment choices right now.
If we’re on the subject of beaten-down names, then a good place to start would be in the tech sector, a corner of the market that has been particularly hard-hit this year. Sprinklr is a SaaS company specializing in customer experience management solutions. The company’s AI-powered platform, Unified-CXM, helps its clients monitor and interact with customers with the aim of delivering better experiences. Some of the world’s biggest brands are clients, including Microsoft, Adobe and Oracle, amongst others.
Sprinklr is relatively new to the public markets, having held its IPO in June 2021, in a downsized offering for which the company raised $266 million. The shares were priced at $16 each but have had a rough time so far. In 2022 alone, the shares are down by 44%.
That said, the share losses have come against an expanding top-line, with revenues steadily growing in each subsequent quarter. In the latest report, for FQ2, revenue increased by 26.9% year-over-year to reach $150.6 million, edging ahead of the consensus estimate by $3.15 million. There have also been consistent beats on the bottom-line; adj. EPS of -$0.03 beat the -$0.06 expected by the analysts.
Assessing this company’s prospects, JMP analyst Patrick Walravens come down squarely in the bull-camp.
“Overall, we see Sprinklr as an attractive opportunity for long-term capital appreciation for a number of reasons, including: 1) Sprinklr’s AI-powered platform that is designed to listen to and manage customer experience data at massive scale across 36 channels (including TikTok) and has lots of high-value, vertical use cases; 2) the company is pursuing a large market opportunity, which is estimated to be ~$60B; 3) we like the leadership of CEO Ragy Thomas and CFO Manish Sarin, who joined in January and is helping focus the company on profitable growth; 4) we think in a tough macroeconomic environment, Sprinklr is benefiting from a trend to consolidation of solutions,” Walravens wrote.
As such, Walravens rates CXM stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy) while his $22 price target makes room for 12-month gains of a strong 150%. (To watch Walravens’ track record, click here)
Overall, most agree this stock is one to own; the ratings split 6 to 2 in favor of Buys over Holds, providing this name with a Strong Buy consensus rating. At $15.29, the average target implies shares will climb ~74% higher over the one-year timeframe. (See CXM stock forecast on TipRanks)
The next beaten-down stock we’ll look at is NanoString, a specialist in the field of spatial biology. That is, the study of molecules in a two-dimensional or three-dimensional context.
In layman’s terms, the company develops advanced instruments which are used in labs for scientific and clinical research. The company offers 3 main products; the nCounter Analysis System, the GeoMx Digital Spatial Profiler (DSP) and the CosMx Spatial Molecular Imager (SMI) platform.
NanoString also recently unveiled its new AtoMx Spatial Informatics Portal (SIP), an integrated ecosystem with streamlined workflows which corresponds with its other platforms. The commercial launch is expected this fall.
2022 has been brutal for this stock, which is down by 76% year-to-date. The share losses have come alongside real world decline, as exhibited in the latest quarterly statement – for 2Q22. Revenue fell by 4.8% from the same period a year ago to $32.22 million while the losses widened too; EPS of -$0.85 dropped from the loss of -$0.60 in 2Q21. Additionally, the company lowered its outlook; total product and service revenue for the year is now expected in the range between $140 and $150 million, vs. the prior guidance of $150 to $160 million, while the company expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $75 to $85 million, whereas beforehand NanoString called for a loss of $65 to $75 million.
While investors have voted with their thumbs down this year, Canaccord analyst Kyle Mikson remains fully behind this name.
“We remain bullish on NSTG’s spatial biology opportunity,” the analyst said. “We continue to believe that CosMx and GeoMx (combined with AtoMx) should be complementary going forward. Despite recent ‘self-inflicted’ commercial execution issues, we believe NanoString will be able to right-size its sales force to support its full CosMx launch in 2H22. We believe the shares are highly attractive at current levels.”
Mikson isn’t just predicting a strong future, he’s backing his stance with a Buy rating and a $30 price target that implies ~175% one-year upside potential. (To watch Mikson’s track record, click here)
4 other analysts join Mikson in the bull corner, and one skeptic can’t detract from the Strong Buy consensus rating. The forecast calls for 12-month gains of 152%, considering the average target clocks in at $275. (See NSTG stock forecast on TipRanks)
From one life sciences company to another; Maravai develops and provides essential products utilized for the purpose of new drug development, diagnostics, human disease research and next-gen vaccines.
The last bit is important as Maravai’s products are being widely used in mRNA-based production and Maravai has enjoyed the prominence seen by mRNA technologies in Covid-19 vaccines.
The most frequently used Covid vaccination on a global scale is the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine, COMIRNATY, which uses Maravai’s CleanCap mRNA capping technology.
This achievement should bolster Maravai’s prospects for success in the 500+ mRNA vaccines and therapies being developed. It has also provided the company with a sales boost (65% of 2020 to 2022e sales are driven by COVID-vaccines).
That sales bump was still reflected in the company’s most recent earnings report – for 2Q22. Revenue rose by 11.5% year-over-year to $242.73 million, while beating the Street’s call by $9.51 million. EPS of $0.53 also came in well above the $0.38 consensus estimate.
That said, Maravai has been unable to withstand the bearish market forces and the shares have tumbled ~55% this year.
There are also questions regarding the future growth trajectory once the Covid tailwind completely subsides. However, this is not a concern for Credit Suisse’s 5-star analyst Dan Leonard, who points out the growing prevalence of mRNA technology.
“The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trajectory of mRNA technologies by multiple years, according to our diligence. The pipeline product candidates for Maravai’s raw materials are broad and deep. According to market research by L.E.K., mRNA/cell and gene therapy assets in development are expected to grow 4x from 2022 to 2027. The FDA expects more than 200 cell and gene therapy INDs per year and 10-20 approvals per year (from nine in total today) starting in 2025. Funding for cell and gene therapies companies totaled ~$20B in 2020,” Leonard explained.
“All in, we view it as an attractive market for suppliers, with Maravai most exposed in our coverage,” the analyst summed up.
Conveying his confidence, Leonard’s Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating is backed by a $34 price target, suggesting an 80% upside from current levels. (To watch Leonard’s track record, click here)
Like Kulkarni, other analysts also take a bullish approach. MRVI’s Strong Buy consensus rating breaks down into 6 Buys and zero Holds or Sells. Given the $35 average price target, the upside potential lands at ~85%. (See MRVI stock forecast on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
While rivers and reservoirs run dangerously low in Europe, there is catastrophic flooding in Pakistan and the US. Whether it’s a drought or a deluge, being able to accurately forecast rain is important to protect lives and manage water safely.
That has become more difficult in recent decades. Climate change and deforestation have warped Earth’s freshwater cycle, shifting rainfall patterns towards extreme events like severe droughts and downpours. Catastrophic floods have been on the rise globally in the last 50 years and incidences of flash flooding, when torrential rain falls in a very short period, have increased, particularly in tropical countries where high temperatures have made thunderstorms more common.
Developed countries like the UK have invested in satellites and radars for more accurate weather forecasting. These high-tech systems are particularly effective in temperate climates where rainfall typically occurs over several kilometres and moves in wide bands known as weather fronts. Measurements of rainfall over distances of 5 km or greater, which satellites and radars are capable of, are often sufficient for forecasting rain at this scale.
In tropical countries, where climate change is expected to have a far greater impact, systems that can forecast rain at distances of less than a kilometre are needed. This is because of something called convectional rainfall, which is common in the tropics. Convectional rainfall occurs when heated air rises upwards along with water vapour, which condenses to form clouds at a high altitude. These clouds are not carried away by the wind, and so rain falls in the same place it originated.
Systems capable of forecasting convectional rainfall would help authorities give advance warning, preventing deaths and flood damage. They could also help people manage this rainwater to benefit farms, with efficient drainage and irrigation measures.
Most tropical countries fall within low or middle income bands. Forecasting rain over distances smaller than a kilometre is expensive – weather satellites are often not feasible. Dense vegetation and hilly terrain, also common in tropical regions, can profoundly shape local weather by causing humid air to rise and condense, making conventional weather forecasting even trickier. To solve these problems, we set out to develop a cheap way of providing street-by-street forecasting.
AI-based tropical rainfall forecasting
Rainfall is the result of complex interactions between different components of the atmosphere such as temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed which can be easily measured by sensors. We investigated whether artificial intelligence could use this information to compile a rainfall forecast in northern Malaysia.The forecasting system we developed is essentially an intelligent computer programme that can predict whether it will rain, how intense that rain will be and how long it will last at any location with greater than 90% accuracy at least 96 hours in advance.
We tested its forecasting accuracy against past weather conditions which preceded rain falling. If this algorithm included data from sensors measuring the depth and flow rate of rivers, it could predict whether rain might cause flooding, and if so, when and for how long.The devices used to measure weather conditions can be connected to the internet to form a network that offers regional forecasting. Adding more devices to the network will improve the accuracy of the forecast, which is updated hourly.
Working with University of Malaysia Perlis, we have already created an online network of existing weather sensors that collects data for our algorithm to use. Most of these weather stations are separated by tens of kilometres – too far apart to provide detailed rain forecasting in most areas.But, as more sensors are added, the forecasting system will hopefully one day ensure that vulnerable communities can better prepare for extreme weather events, and build resilience to the rapidly changing climate.
Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth’s climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.
Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are happening faster than scientists previously assessed. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change — modern humans have never before seen the observed changes in our global climate, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.
Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades, mainly due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report, published in 2021, found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since pre-Industrial times (starting in 1750). The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees C (about 3 degrees F) within the next few decades. These changes will affect all regions of Earth.
What’s the difference between climate change and global warming?
The severity of effects caused by climate change will depend on the path of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate extremes and widespread damaging effects across our planet. However, those future effects depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. So, if we can reduce emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.
Climate change is bringing different types of challenges to each region of the country. Some of the current and future impacts are summarized below. These findings are from the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise pose increasing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Farmers can explore new crop options, but these adaptations are not cost- or risk-free. Moreover, adaptive capacity, which varies throughout the region, could be overwhelmed by a changing climate. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.
Northwest. Changes in the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams are reducing water supplies and worsening competing demands for water. Sea level rise, erosion, flooding, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire incidence and severity, heat waves, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread forest die-off.
Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.
Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes.
Southwest. Climate change has caused increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks. In turn, these changes have made wildfires more numerous and severe. The warming climate has also caused a decline in water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, and triggered heat-related health impacts in cities. In coastal areas, flooding and erosion are additional concerns.
Recently, financial services and telecommunication providers have experienced significant challenges. They encountered digitally savvy competitors, increased expectations for online customer service (pre-and post-pandemic), and higher case volumes of agitated customers. Meanwhile, remote work affected the productivity of service staff, daily operations, and more. But they aren’t the only service-driven industries reacting to disruption and increasing consumer expectations.
Quality of service can mean the difference between keeping or losing customers, so organizations need to examine how, where, and when they engage with them. A single customer view looking at experiences across service, marketing, and commerce is essential. Unfortunately, many businesses struggle with disparate data and disconnected applications that obfuscate that view. That means service fulfillment and relevant technologies must step up to help organizations deliver more consistent, seamless, swift, and personalized experiences for customers who agree “good enough” service won’t suffice.
Transforming your service strategy and operations with data leads to better business results. A data-driven service approach is making a positive difference in the financial services and telecommunications industries and can also help your business achieve these benefits:
1. Enhanced, personalized customer experiences across all channels
2. More productive, empowered service agents influencing success
3. Increased efficiency, prioritization, and automation throughout service operations
4. Reduced IT complexity and costs leading to higher margins
The Risks Of Poor Customer Experience
If customers experience less-than-stellar service, there’s a greater risk of switching to competitors. In fact, 80% of consumers will switch after just one poor experience1—driving businesses to compete on more than price and choice. There are other serious downstream effects: increased customer churn, diminished reputation and trust, stalled growth, and attrition of employees, agents, or leadership.
Business circumstances can change instantly. Customer interactions can portend issues with serious implications (i.e., costly compliance or regulatory fines or sharp declines in satisfaction scores). Each problem puts a company at greater risk for stolen market share you can’t afford to lose.
With a commitment to data-driven and digitally driven service operations—from the contact center to the field—you are better positioned with customers and can reduce or eliminate most risks. In digital environments, engagement barriers are often reduced or eliminated allowing customers to gain more service access, and brands to gain increased opportunities for better customer service delivery.
How To Unlock Data And Transform Customer Service End-To-End
Transitioning to data-driven service starts with leaders’ commitment to building and maintaining a cohesive data strategy spanning people, processes, and technologies that support business resilience and future growth. The next step is unifying data sources with intuitive and flexible analytics to achieve a single source of truth.
When you infuse analytics across service operations (and the business), agents and leaders gain that invaluable, complete customer view to impact personal, swift, effective service, and transform the call center from a siloed operation to an agile changemaker that affects marketing, sales, product development, and more. Tangible results include:
For financial services…
· Up to 31% increase in customer satisfaction
· Up to 29% increase in agent and user productivity
· Up to 27% reduction in customer retention
· 37% faster time to resolution
· 55% decrease in cost to serve
· 53% increase in average revenue per user (ARPU)
Let’s examine the four benefits of data-driven service and relevant resources as you focus on protecting the bottom line.
1. Enhanced, personalized customer experiences across channels
Customers are precious business assets, so carefully nurturing and protecting each relationship is key. Regardless of how they engage, each expects a personal interaction resulting in swift resolution. Maybe there’s a service issue and they made several attempts to get help. Or maybe there’s an opportunity to upsell their existing products and services. Unfortunately, the siloed data systems sitting inside and outside of your organization’s customer relationship management (CRM) system make it more complicated to deliver best-in-class service.
Charles Schwab relies on data to answer financial planning questions, improve customer experiences, drive operational leverage, and more. Shifting from a static to dynamic customer view with Tableau helps their call centers, branches, and headquarters staff see data errors or inconsistencies and discover insights to make product adjustments so clients’ money goes further and their engagement stays positive.
“Now those receiving and handling the customer calls are making their own impact, helping maintain higher customer satisfaction levels. They’re transitioning into a role where they’re looking at the data behind customer engagement.” Senior Data Analyst, Charles Schwab
2. More productive, empowered service agents influencing success
When agents shift from system to system trying to access information and manually perform processes, customers feel and react to the effects of disengaged communication, fragmented experiences, and long wait times. They want meaningful interaction from service staff seeing a complete view of customer and business data to influence smarter responses and actions.
As noted in the “State of Service” report from Salesforce Research, 91% of customers say they’ll make another purchase if the service is good1. With intuitive analytics, your agents can access and catalog data, then analyze it for valuable and trusted insights, and also share it with others to act in customers’ best interests. Access to pre-built dashboards like Tableau’s Call Center Accelerator gives your service team deeper views of overall service levels and helps all business leaders analyze agent performance—good and bad. Feel confident knowing data is at their fingertips to make better, quicker decisions in all customer interactions.
Thousands of customers depend on internet, cable, and phone providers to deliver reliable service. When customers use these services, ample data is created and can be collected. Verizon analyzes it with Tableau to ensure customers are satisfied, problems get handled, and departments like marketing or call centers can see patterns and behaviors to improve service. A Center for Excellence is critical as they perform analyses, support data management, and deliver insights to stakeholders for improved decision-making.
“Insights from dashboards help us optimize call center operations to reduce multiple customer calls. Monitoring these timely dashboards shows us that as the resolution rate and satisfaction index of customers go up, volumes for calls and dispatches—key cost drivers—go down. Senior Manager of Data Analytics, Verizon
3. Increased efficiency and prioritization of more complex cases throughout service operations
Before 2020, contact centers could manage traditional customer demand and service spikes. But these spikes are usually short-lived and predictable versus the unforeseen changes and new expectations growing from digital engagement and the pandemic. With a smaller workforce also handling call center cases due to downsizing, data-driven technologies that support efficiency, prioritization, and automation are necessary to the experience equation—particularly for large, dispersed enterprises.
Today, interactive analytics with built-in AI help your staff confidently understand all customer data and service performance in their workflows, which helps them be more predictive and proactive when choosing how to act on behalf of customers. AI-powered analytics also fuel speed to insights for better contact routing, improved call center and field staff capacity, and automaton of more cumbersome, time-intensive processes.
For example, a single dashboard displaying call center KPIs in Tableau can help management see and know where to optimize operations—from streamlining or eliminating multisystem dependencies to automating low-value processes that hamper productivity and communication. This frees up service staff to help more customers and address more complex cases.
Inconsistent, fragmented data at Telstra made pipeline, revenue forecasting, and quicker delivery of new technologies to customers difficult. But the combination of Sales Cloud and CRM Analytics transformed how they deliver customers new solutions and measure business value. Sales Cloud provides a complete view of enterprise customers and enables sales to forecast and collaborate for more meaningful interactions. CRM Analytics also helps line of business managers and service staff stay focused on how to achieve their business KPIs.
4. Reduced IT complexity and costs leading to higher margins
By using a self-service solution like Tableau, gain highly configurable, manageable, and customizable analytics to increase performance clarity and create faster, more accurate business decisions or predictions. IT is no longer a bottleneck, and service operations staff, business analysts, and executives have a clear understanding with direct visibility of the customer journey and what factors extend or detract from success.
This can translate to better planning with staffing, forecasting, and seasonality to reduce service costs and maintain high-quality, year-round customer engagement.
Growing through mergers and acquisitions, strategic data became vital to business operations for JPMC. IT made data easily accessible for business teams through Tableau so domain experts could keep up with industry changes, regulations, and risks, and optimize for customer success. For example, marketing operations analyze the customer journey to inform promotional materials and products like the mobile application and branch managers examine retail data to implement better banking experiences.
“We put Tableau on our robust customer data sets…to quickly ask questions like ‘How many customers have a Freedom and a checking account, and use the mobile wallet.’ ” Director of Analytics, JPMorgan Chase
Embrace Data-First Service And Win With Customers
In the competitive, highly regulated environment facing financial services, telecommunications, and other industries, leading with data-first service creates a winning position. Grow and protect valued customer relationships with the help of a world-leading analytics solution like Tableau combined with Salesforce, the leading CRM, to connect with customers in more meaningful ways across every channel—every time.
Visit Tableau’s data-driven solution pages for Financial Services and Telecommunications to explore helpful resources – an eBook, customer stories, quick-to-implement tools, and more.
Try the Tableau Call Center Accelerator and hundreds of pre-built dashboards to see your data visualized for many use cases while tracking and improving KPIs for service operations, customer experience, and other areas.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of a slowdown in global economic growth as the world economy continues to take a hit from “increasingly gloomy developments in 2022,” including high inflation, a slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and ongoing fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The IMF slashed its global growth projections, now expecting global GDP to grow 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, down from previous estimates in April of 3.6% GDP growth for both years.
The group cited a slowdown in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—as a reason for the revised estimates, warning that the risks to the outlook remain “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.”
Several “shocks” have hit the global economy as it tries to recover from the pandemic, including higher-than-expected inflation worldwide––especially in the United States and Europe, a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and “further negative spillovers” from the war in Ukraine.
The IMF also said that high inflation remains a “major problem” as prices have continued to rise in 2022, led by soaring food and fuel costs, arguing that “taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers” worldwide.
The group now expects global inflation to hit 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in developing economies this year, though prices are expected to return to near pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.
The IMF also slashed its growth estimates for the U.S. economy, now forecasting GDP to rise 2.3% this year and 1% in 2023, down from previous estimates of 3.7% and 2.3%, respectively, amid the impact of tighter monetary policy and reduced household purchasing power.
“The outlook has darkened significantly since April,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. “The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one.”
“The slowdown in China has global consequences,” the IMF said. “Lockdowns added to global supply chain disruptions and the decline in domestic spending are reducing demand for goods and services from China’s trade partners.” The group now sees China’s economy growing 3.3% in 2022—its lowest pace in four decades and down over 1% from previous estimates.
The World Bank similarly slashed its forecasts for the global economy last month, predicting GDP growth in 2022 of just 2.9%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.1%.
The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions.
China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year. Under our baseline forecast, growth slows from last year’s 6.1 percent to 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year, downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April.
This reflects stalling growth in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—with important consequences for the global outlook. In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and 1 percent next year.
In China, further lockdowns, and the deepening real estate crisis pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year—the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.
Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. Inflation this year is anticipated to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies—upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively—and is projected to remain elevated longer. Inflation has also broadened in many economies, reflecting the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labor markets.