IMF Warns Of ‘Gloomy Outlook’ For Global Economy, Slashing Growth Estimates

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of a slowdown in global economic growth as the world economy continues to take a hit from “increasingly gloomy developments in 2022,” including high inflation, a slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and ongoing fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The IMF slashed its global growth projections, now expecting global GDP to grow 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, down from previous estimates in April of 3.6% GDP growth for both years.

The group cited a slowdown in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—as a reason for the revised estimates, warning that the risks to the outlook remain “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.”

Several “shocks” have hit the global economy as it tries to recover from the pandemic, including higher-than-expected inflation worldwide––especially in the United States and Europe, a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and “further negative spillovers” from the war in Ukraine.

The IMF also said that high inflation remains a “major problem” as prices have continued to rise in 2022, led by soaring food and fuel costs, arguing that “taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers” worldwide.

The group now expects global inflation to hit 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in developing economies this year, though prices are expected to return to near pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

The IMF also slashed its growth estimates for the U.S. economy, now forecasting GDP to rise 2.3% this year and 1% in 2023, down from previous estimates of 3.7% and 2.3%, respectively, amid the impact of tighter monetary policy and reduced household purchasing power.

“The outlook has darkened significantly since April,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. “The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one.”

“The slowdown in China has global consequences,” the IMF said. “Lockdowns added to global supply chain disruptions and the decline in domestic spending are reducing demand for goods and services from China’s trade partners.” The group now sees China’s economy growing 3.3% in 2022—its lowest pace in four decades and down over 1% from previous estimates.

The World Bank similarly slashed its forecasts for the global economy last month, predicting GDP growth in 2022 of just 2.9%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.1%.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: IMF Warns Of ‘Gloomy Outlook’ For Global Economy, Slashing Growth Estimates

Critics by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions.

China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year. Under our baseline forecast, growth slows from last year’s 6.1 percent to 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year, downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April.

This reflects stalling growth in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—with important consequences for the global outlook. In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and 1 percent next year.

In China, further lockdowns, and the deepening real estate crisis pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year—the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.

Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. Inflation this year is anticipated to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies—upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively—and is projected to remain elevated longer. Inflation has also broadened in many economies, reflecting the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labor markets.

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Credit Suisse Bullish On Stocks In 2021 Because It’s Bullish On 2022

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 23: People walk along Broadway as they pass the Wall Street Charging Bull statue on July 23, 2020 in New York City. On Wednesday July 22, the market had its best day in 6 weeks. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub introduced his 2021 price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) of 4,050, implying 12.2% upside from Tuesday’s closing levels. Underpinning this upbeat call is his assumption that two years from now, the post-virus economic recovery will have already hit a peak.

“Our 2021 forecasts are designed to answer a simple question: what will the future (2022) look like in the future (end of 2021),” Golub said in a new note Wednesday. “From this perspective, we are forced to de-emphasize the near-term, focusing instead on the return to a more normal world.”

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“As we look toward 2022, the virus will be a fading memory, the economy robust, but decelerating, the yield curve steeper and volatility lower, and the rotation into cyclicals largely behind us,” he added.

Based on Golub’s analysis, economic activity as measured by GDP growth will renormalize at levels slightly above trend, or with quarterly annualized growth rates just over 3%, starting in the second half of 2021.

And the labor market — which as of October was still 10 million payrolls short of pre-pandemic levels — will likely reach “full employment” by the second half of 2022, Golub added.

Since the stock market discounts future events, each of these prospects for further improvement down the line should translate into a higher S&P 500 as investors price in these events.

Analysts have already begun to account for an anticipated improvement in corporate profits, as S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have on aggregate sharply topped consensus expectations so far for each of second and third quarter results this year.

“We expect 2020 estimates to rise, 2021 to remain stable and 2022 to moderate,” Golub said.

His 2021 S&P 500 price target of 4,050 is based on earnings per share of $168 next year, for an improvement of 20% over the expected aggregate EPS this year. He expects EPS will then rise to $190 in 2022.

Sector leadership

On a sector basis, Golub rates technology stocks as Overweight for 2021, given their “faster sales growth, superior margins, robust FCF [free cash flow], and low leverage. He also rated financials, one of the laggard sectors so far for the year-to-date, as Overweight, given their propensity to lead during recoveries.

“Consistent with a typical recovery, banks should benefit from improving credit conditions, increasing transaction volumes, and a steepening yield curve,” Golub said. “The group is adequately reserved, likely. resulting in a greater return of capital.”

Golub designated cyclicals with a Neutral rating for next year, saying he is “positively inclined toward economically-sensitive groups and believe[s] their momentum should persist over the near-term.” But he added that he thinks the largest quarter-over-quarter improvements in economic activity have already come and gone, leaving more tepid further upside potential for stocks with profits closely tethered to economic growth.

He rated non-cylicals like consumer staples as underweight, while giving health care specifically an Overweight rating.

“Non-cylicals should lag in an improving economy as falling volatility supports higher P/Es (price-earnings multiples) for riskier assets, and rising rates make their high dividend yields less appealing,” he said. “The one exception is health care, which should outperform given a more robust earnings trend.”

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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Top Stocks To Buy Today As Markets Pace Towards Worst Week Since March

Markets are set to sink yet again today for the fifth time in six days. If the pace holds up today, this will also be the second consecutive monthly loss for the markets. While volatility is normal pre-election, investors are continuing to grapple with COVID surging to record numbers and resulting in new shutdowns and lockdown measures. Additionally, with zero sign of another stimulus package, fear is certainly rampant about a double dip recession. The Dow dropped 100 points or .38%, while the S&P dropped .41% and the Nasdaq NDAQ -0.8% declined .75%. 

Although yesterday’s news revealed strong economic data regarding US GDP growth and jobless claims, investors largely ignored that today. Apple AAPL -5.6% sharply declined after reporting a 16% decline in iPhone sales and failing to provide guidance for the upcoming quarter. Despite a big beat on revenue, Amazon AMZN -5.4% also declined. Twitter led the declines falling over 15% after reporting user growth that fell short of expectations. For investors looking to make sense of the markets, the deep learning algorithms at Q.ai have crunched the data to give you a set of Top Buys. Our Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) systems assessed each firm on parameters of Technicals, Growth, Low Volatility Momentum, and Quality Value to find the best long plays.

Sign up for the free Forbes AI Investor newsletter here to join an exclusive AI investing community and get premium investing ideas before markets open.

Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)

Corporate services company Broadridge Financial Solutions BR -0.4% is our first Top Buy of the day. The company, which was founded in 2007, is a spin-off from Automatic Data Processing ADP -0.1%. Our AI systems rated Broadridge C in Technicals, B in Growth, B in Low Volatility Momentum, and B in Quality Value. The stock closed up 1.95% to $138.12 on volume of 560,940 vs its 10-day price average of $141.94 and its 22-day price average of $139.91, and is up 13.2% for the year.

Revenue grew by 1.52% in the last fiscal year and grew by 6.19% over the last three fiscal years, Operating Income grew by 0.88% in the last fiscal year and grew by 5.42% over the last three fiscal years, and EPS grew by 2.0% in the last fiscal year and grew by 13.17% over the last three fiscal years. Revenue was $4529.0M in the last fiscal year compared to $4329.9M three years ago, Operating Income was $624.9M in the last fiscal year compared to $598.0M three years ago, EPS was $3.95 in the last fiscal year compared to $3.56 three years ago, and ROE was 37.39% in the last year compared to 40.79% three years ago. Recommended For You

MORE FROM FORBESBroadridge Financial (BR)

Simple Moving Average of Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
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Amdocs (DOX)

Amdocs DOX +1.7% is our next Top Buy of the day. A leading software and services provider for communications and media companies, Amdocs is also the largest vendor by revenue in the monetization platforms segment by a wide margin. Our AI systems rated Amdocs C in Technicals, B in Growth, A in Low Volatility Momentum, and B in Quality Value.

The stock closed up 0.84% to $55.42 on volume of 732,226 vs its 10-day price average of $56.85 and its 22-day price average of $57.62, and is down 22.2% for the year. Revenue grew by 1.46% in the last fiscal year and grew by 7.22% over the last three fiscal years, Operating Income grew by 3.9% in the last fiscal year and grew by 14.43% over the last three fiscal years, and EPS grew by 3.5% in the last fiscal year and grew by 21.33% over the last three fiscal years.

Revenue was $4086.67M in the last fiscal year compared to $3867.16M three years ago, Operating Income was $569.75M in the last fiscal year compared to $517.33M three years ago, EPS was $3.47 in the last fiscal year compared to $2.96 three years ago, and ROE was 13.63% in the last year compared to 12.43% three years ago. Forward 12M Revenue is expected to grow by 1.82% over the next 12 months, and the stock is trading with a Forward 12M P/E of 11.82.MORE FROM FORBESAmdocs (DOX)

Simple Moving Average of Amdocs (DOX)
Price of Amdocs compared to its Simple Moving Average YCharts

Fastenal Co (FAST)

Industrial supplies company Fastenal FAST +0.3% is our third Top Buy of the day. Fastenal is the largest fastener distributor in North America. Our AI systems rated Fastenal C in Technicals, B in Growth, A in Low Volatility Momentum, and B in Quality Value. The stock closed up 0.42% to $43.12 on volume of 2,291,171 vs its 10-day price average of $44.02 and its 22-day price average of $44.72, and is up 18.72% for the year. Revenue grew by 4.36% in the last fiscal year and grew by 26.78% over the last three fiscal years, Operating Income grew by 5.57% in the last fiscal year and grew by 26.57% over the last three fiscal years, and EPS grew by 5.82% in the last fiscal year and grew by 46.01% over the last three fiscal years.

Revenue was $5333.7M in the last fiscal year compared to $4390.5M three years ago, Operating Income was $1056.0M in the last fiscal year compared to $880.8M three years ago, EPS was $1.38 in the last fiscal year compared to $1.0 three years ago, and ROE was 31.84% in the last year compared to 28.71% three years ago. Forward 12M Revenue is expected to grow by 0.89% over the next 12 months, and the stock is trading with a Forward 12M P/E of 28.7.MORE FROM FORBESFastenal (FAST)

Simple Moving Average of Fastenal Co (FAST)
Price of Fastenal Co compared to its Simple Moving Average YCharts

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)

Major aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin LMT -0.7% is our fourth Top Buy of the day. As of 2014, Lockheed Martin is the world’s largest defense contractor based on revenue, with half of that revenue coming from the US Department of Defense. Our AI systems rated Lockheed Martin B in Technicals, B in Growth, A in Low Volatility Momentum, and A in Quality Value. The stock closed up 0.45% to $352.44 on volume of 1,545,758 vs its 10-day price average of $368.71 and its 22-day price average of $377.48, and is down 10.08% for the year.

Revenue grew by 7.41% in the last fiscal year and grew by 28.59% over the last three fiscal years, Operating Income grew by 11.3% in the last fiscal year and grew by 53.19% over the last three fiscal years, and EPS grew by 5.74% in the last fiscal year and grew by 243.8% over the last three fiscal years. Revenue was $59812.0M in the last fiscal year compared to $49960.0M three years ago, Operating Income was $7698.0M in the last fiscal year compared to $5593.0M three years ago, EPS was $21.95 in the last fiscal year compared to $6.75 three years ago, and ROE was 269.7% in the last year compared to 455.42% three years ago. Forward 12M Revenue is expected to grow by 3.07% over the next 12 months, and the stock is trading with a Forward 12M P/E of 13.68.MORE FROM FORBESLockheed Martin (LMT)

Simple Moving Average of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Price of Lockheed Martin Corp compared to its Simple Moving Average YCharts

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)

Our final Top Buy of the day is Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO -4.8%. Take-Two is a leading video game publisher most known for owning video game companies Rockstar Games and 2k. Take-Two is best known for video game franchises such as Grand Theft Auto, NBA2k, and Red Dead. Our AI systems rated Take-Two D in Technicals, A in Growth, B in Low Volatility Momentum, and A in Quality Value. The stock closed down 0.99% to $162.77 on volume of 1,257,438 vs its 10-day price average of $165.0 and its 22-day price average of $164.76, and is up 33.33% for the year.

Revenue grew by 9.42% in the last fiscal year and grew by 88.51% over the last three fiscal years, Operating Income grew by 11.69% in the last fiscal year and grew by 213.83% over the last three fiscal years, and EPS grew by 10.07% in the last fiscal year and grew by 153.42% over the last three fiscal years. Revenue was $3088.97M in the last fiscal year compared to $1792.89M three years ago, Operating Income was $425.35M in the last fiscal year compared to $151.38M three years ago, EPS was $3.54 in the last fiscal year compared to $1.54 three years ago, and ROE was 17.66% in the last year compared to 13.92% three years ago. The stock is also trading with a Forward 12M P/E of 46.84.MORE FROM FORBESTake-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)

Simple Moving Average of Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
Price of Take-Two Interactive Software compared to its Simple Moving Average YCharts

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Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

By: Q.ai – Investing Reimagined

Q.ai - Investing Reimagined

Q.ai, a Forbes Company, formerly known as Quantalytics and Quantamize, uses advanced forms of quantitative techniques and artificial intelligence to generate investment recommendations across all asset classes. When it comes to money, no one should have to settle. We make investing less intimidating, more accessible and a lot of fun for everyone. That’s investing, reimagined.

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Stock Moe

89.2K subscribers// This is the best penny stocks to buy now 2020 November edition.Join our private community over at Patreon https://www.patreon.com/stockmoe to talk stocks that could grow your portfolio to new levels. I will have exclusive materials as we move forward and my own stock purchases and a brand new high growth portfolio that I am sharing with everyone. If you want to have a one on one person to help you, then this is a must for any serious investor. We just got our private Discord up and running as well. SIGN UP FOR WEBULL: (It’s only a $100 deposit and you get 3 free stocks worth $8 a piece to $1600 from this referral link…I recently signed up…love it and I also get a free stock) https://www.webull.com/activity?invit… Sign up for Robinhood here for a free stock: https://join.robinhood.com/brittnm610 NEW STOCK MOE AMAZON STORE UP AND RUNNING: https://www.amazon.com/shop/stockmoe This is all about getting the best penny stocks to buy now 2020 for November. It is a good time to look at some big penny stocks that are moving and see if there is a way to make a quick profit off of them or if there is a long term play there. There are many penny stocks out there, but most end up at zero eventually . Finding the best penny stocks to buy now is not an easy task. The first of the best penny stocks to buy now is one that I feel has some upward pressure that gives us a chance to make a few dollars. I am not sure how it will go, but this best penny stock opportunity helps us moving forward. It is interesting to see all of this. In looking at the top penny stocks to buy now, there are a few opportunities out there to invest in. The penny stocks 2020 list I made in this video helps to identity these penny stocks. There are a few out there that can work our way, but we need to be careful. These are very volatile and should be handled with care. These are some good penny stocks to watch for 2020 and 2021. These are the best penny stocks to buy now 2020 and not the only ones though. There are a few other opportunities out there for us to consider. These top stocks can go bad very quickly if the market turns south. I still see these as an option for stocks to buy now in my mind. These are great penny stocks for beginners that will get them in with a chance at profit. These are high risk and should be traded knowing that. If you are looking for cheap penny stocks, these best penny stocks to buy now fit the bill. There are many penny stocks to look at and I am sure there are probably many more that could outperform these penny stocks, but it gives you an idea of how I look for a penny stock to invest in. These are the best stocks to buy now and possibly in the future if you are looking for extreme risk and possible massive profits. There is always a chance of losing everything when buying one of the best penny stocks to buy now. These penny stocks 2020 are what I think will have the most action. In summation, the best penny stocks to buy 2020 November edition is all about giving you the opportunity to make massive amounts of money or loss massive amounts of money investing in the top penny stocks to buy now. If you are looking for penny stocks to watch or are investing in penny stocks for the long term, then be aware of the dangers. These can be the best stocks to buy now or the top stocks to buy now if they end up turning their business around. What stocks to buy now is a good question to always ask yourself. These best penny stocks to buy now help to answer that. ARK had bought NNDM stock price and added it…are they still buying NNDM? NNDM should definitely be in the penny stocks to watch list, if you have one. 🙂 Stock Moe’s content is for entertainment only. In no event will Stock Moe be liable for any loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from loss of data or profits arising out of, or in connection with, the use of Stock Moe content on YouTube, Patreon, and Discord. Stock Moe is no longer a licensed broker/financial planner. All financial decisions made by the viewer should be done after talking with a licensed professional. Everything on the Stock Moe channel is for entertainment only. Stock Moe’s video content may change over time, or become outdated or invalid. Stock Moe reserves the right to change his opinions and entertainment content at any time. I also have affiliate links in this description that I can earn money off of to help support the channel. Thank you from Stock Moe. #stocks#pennystocks#pennystock

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