From Fintech’s Top Founders To Wall Street’s Best Dealmakers: 30 Under 30 Finance 2022

In 2016, while Tarek Mansour was an analyst at Goldman Sachs, he watched clients nervously trying to hedge their investments in case the Brexit referendum passed. They had no direct way to do it, and the insight became the seed for a startup idea—Kalshi, an exchange where investors could make unusual bets on future events. He cofounded the New York company with fellow MIT alum Luana Lopes Lara in 2018.

The hardest part: regulatory approval. “In one day we both called 65 lawyers,” Mansour says. “All of whom said, ‘People have been trying to do this since the ’80s, and it’s not happening.’” But they persevered—and in November 2020, Kalshi became the first federally regulated event-based trading exchange in U.S. history.

Today you can use Kalshi to bet on how many Americans will ultimately get a Covid vaccine or whether this year will be the hottest on record. Billionaires Charles Schwab and Henry Kravis have invested in the startup alongside blue-chip VC shop Sequoia. Kalshi has raised $36 million and processed $10 million in trades since launching in July 2021.


Eleven of the thirty companies featured on our 2022 list were crypto firms, an all-time high.


Mansour and Lopes Lara are two of the honorees on the 30 Under 30 list in finance for 2022, which covers traditional financial services, fintech and crypto.

The list makers were chosen from nearly one thousand nominations and were evaluated by an all-star set of judges, including Paul Gu, a cofounder and head of product at fintech lender Upstart; Joey Krug, the co-chief investment officer of crypto fund Pantera; Jackie Reses, the former head of Square Capital and a fintech angel investor; and Lauren Taylor Wolf, a cofounder and managing partner at activist hedge fund Impactive Capital.

As bitcoin reached a record price of more than $68,000 in 2021, crypto entrepreneurs made a strong showing on our list. Eleven of the companies featured were crypto firms, an all-time high. One example is Antonio Juliano, the founder and CEO of Dydx, a trading platform for professional investors outside the U.S. to buy and sell cryptocurrency derivatives.

During a couple days in September, Dydx surpassed Coinbase in daily trading volume. Juliano expects the 19-person startup to bring in $125 million in revenue this year and $81 million in net profit. Elena Nadolinski, the founder and CEO of privacy-focused cryptocurrency company Iron Fish, is another. Iron Fish uses a novel and advanced cryptography tool called zero-knowledge proofs to make crypto transactions private.

While nonfungible tokens (NFTs) have taken off this year, Alex Atallah, the cofounder and CTO of dominant NFT marketplace OpenSea, has helped his company reach $300 million in revenue, up from less than $1 million last year. Now he’s on track to become one of crypto’s newest billionaires.

Many list makers also hailed from fintech. Scott Kazmierowicz and Michael Spelfogel started Cardless in 2019, creating software that lets brands launch their own co-branded credit cards. They’ve hatched cards for pro sports teams like the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Marlins. Cardless has raised more than $50 million and is valued at $315 million, according to PitchBook.

Akash Magoon cofounded insurtech startup Nayya, which helps people with tasks like picking the most cost-effective health insurance plan and finding lower-cost pharmacies. It has 400 corporate customers and is on track to reach $7 million in revenue in 2021.

Ambika Acharya cofounded Weav, which aggregates sales data for small businesses and makes it easily accessible, letting lenders see it in seconds to assess borrower risk. Corporate credit card startup Brex was Weav’s first customer, using it to power its instant payouts feature. In August 2021, Brex bought Weav for $50 million.

Leaders in traditional financial services made up one-third of our list. Hannah Buchan is a partner at Beehouse, a $300 million investment firm focused on the legal cannabis industry, which has deployed tens of millions of dollars across private equity, stocks and debt deals.

Alex Nesbitt is a principal at BC Partners, helping close deals like the $3.4 billion SPAC merger and IPO between Cyxtera Technologies, one of the largest data center companies in the U.S., and Starboard Value Acquisition Corp., a blank check company.

And Mason Liang is a portfolio manager at Millennium Management, a $50 billion hedge fund, where he oversees one of the largest teams in charge of the firm’s “quantamental” strategy, which combines quantitative and fundamental analysis to assess investments.

This year’s list was a team effort by by Jeff Kauflin, Michael del Castillo and Maria Abreu.

For a link to our complete Finance list, click here and for full 30 Under 30 coverage, click here

I lead our fintech coverage at Forbes and also cover crypto. I edit our annual Fintech 50 list and 30 Under 30 list for fintech, and I’ve written frequently about leadership and

Source: From Fintech’s Top Founders To Wall Street’s Best Dealmakers: 30 Under 30 Finance 2022

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30 Under 30 2022: Finance

U.S. Economic Growth Is Peaking And That Means Stocks Could Struggle This Year, Goldman Warns

As the economic benefits of massive fiscal stimulus and businesses reopening reach their peak in the coming weeks, Goldman Sachs analysts are warning that U.S. economic growth will slow, leading to “paltry” stock returns over the next year and an end to the market’s massive pandemic rally.

U.S. economic growth will peak within the next two months, Goldman analysts said in a Thursday morning note, forecasting that gross domestic product will grow by an annualized 10.5% rate in the second quarter, the strongest expansion since 1978 aside from the economy’s stark mid-pandemic rebound in the third quarter of last year.

Economic growth will then “slow modestly” in the third quarter and continue to decelerate over the next several quarters, the analysts predicted, adding that such deceleration is typically associated with weaker stock returns and higher market volatility.

In a sign that fiscal stimulus effects and economic activity are peaking, the ISM Manufacturing index, a monthly economic indicator measuring industrial activity, registered at 65 in March—above the threshold of 60 that Goldman says typically represents peak economic growth.

Coming off the worst quarter in history, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace ever in the third quarter as a nation battered by an unprecedented pandemic put itself back together. Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, Stephanie Kelton, professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University, and Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, join “Squawk Box” to discuss. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic
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According to Goldman, the S&P 500 has historically fallen an average of 1% in the month after the ISM Manufacturing index registers more than 60, and in the subsequent 12 months, it’s gained a “paltry” 3%—significantly less than the 14% annualized return over the last 10 years.

Goldman expects the S&P will end the year at 4,300 points—implying just a 4% increase from Thursday’s close, lower than some other market forecasters who expect the index could soar to as high as 5,000 points by year’s end.

Crucial Quote

“Equities often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth begins to slow,” a group of Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider said Thursday, noting that during the last 40 years. “It is not a coincidence that ISM readings have rarely exceeded 60 during the last few decades; investors buying U.S equities at those times were buying stocks at around the same time as strong economic growth was peaking—and starting to decelerate.”

Surprising Fact

The most recent ISM reading is the highest since a level of 70 in December 1983—after which the S&P inched up just 0.2% in the following 12 months.

Key Background

Trillions of dollars in unprecedented fiscal stimulus during the pandemic have helped lift the stock market to new highs over the past year, and though President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan could add even more fuel to the economy, Anu Gaggar, a senior investment analyst for Commonwealth Financial Network, said Thursday that “investors have been quick to recognize [that] much of the upside has already been priced.”

That’s evidenced by the growing divergence in performance between the broader market and growth stocks this year, Gaggar says, echoing the sentiment from Goldman analysts Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which far outperformed the broader market by surging 44% last year, has climbed about 9% this year, underperforming the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which are up roughly 12% each.

Further Reading

S&P 500 Passes 4,000—And These Market Experts Think It Can Keep Climbing Higher. Here’s Why. (Forbes)

Dow Jumps 200 Points: Stocks Fend Off Third Day Of Losses Despite Biotechs, Netflix Falling (Forbes)

I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com.

Source: U.S. Economic Growth Is Peaking And That Means Stocks Could Struggle This Year, Goldman Warns

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Key quotes

“Economists predict 10.5% GDP growth for the second quarter, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 1978.”

“Growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year will clock in at 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively. Growth is then seen slowing in each quarter of 2022 — by the fourth quarter Goldman is modeling a mere 1.5% GDP increase.”

“Although our economists expect U.S. GDP growth will remain both above trend and above consensus forecasts through the next few quarters, they believe the pace of growth will peak within the next 1-2 months as the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and economic reopening reach their maximum impact and then begin to fade.”

FX implications

The US dollar index drops 0.10% to trade at 91.25, as of writing. The dollar gauge resumes its downside momentum after facing rejection just below 91.50 in the US last session.

Latest Forex News

Up 50%, Goldman Sachs Stock Can Still Grow

After a 56% rally off the March bottom, Goldman Sachs’ stock (NYSE: GS) seems to still have some room to grow based on its historic P/E multiples. Goldman Sachs, a leading U.S investment bank with a global presence, has seen its stock rally from $135 to $211 off the recent bottom compared to the S&P which moved a similar 55%.

The bank’s stock is closely following the broader markets as investors are positive about the strength of its Sales & Trading and investment banking operations. Notably, its Q2 2020 results saw a 41% y-o-y increase in revenues which was way ahead of market expectations, mainly driven by growth in trading and the investment banking business. Despite this, its stock is still 8% below the levels seen in late 2019.

Goldman Sachs’ stock has partially reached the level it was at before the drop in February due to the coronavirus outbreak becoming a pandemic. After the healthy rise since the March 23 lows, we feel that the company’s stock still has some potential as its revenues have benefited during the lockdown and its valuation implies it has further to go.

Some of this rise of the last 3 years is justified by the roughly 19% growth seen in Goldman Sachs’s revenues over 2016 to 2019, which translated into an 11% increase in Net Income. The net income was unable to capitalize on the rise in revenues due to higher non-interest expenses – especially due to a jump in compensation cost, which weighed on the net income margin reducing it from 23.2% in 2016 to 21.65% in 2019. While the net income did suffer, the earnings figure increased by 28% over the same period, thanks to the bank’s regular investments in share repurchases. Recommended For You

While the company has seen steady revenue and earnings growth over recent years, its P/E multiple has actually decreased. We believe the stock is likely to see some upside despite the recent rally and the potential weakness from a recession-driven by the Covid outbreak. Our dashboard Why Goldman Sachs Stock was stagnant between 2016 and 2019 has the underlying numbers.

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PROMOTED

Goldman Sachs’s P/E multiple changed from close to 14x in 2016 to around 11x in 2019. While the company’s P/E is down to about 10x now, there is some upside potential when the current P/E is compared to levels seen in the past years – P/E of 11x at the end of 2019 and 14x as recent as late 2016.

So what’s the likely trigger and timing for further upside?

Goldman Sachs has a loan portfolio of around $89 billion (as per 2019 data), which could lead to substantial losses if consumer activity levels fall and the economic condition further worsens, leading to a rise in loan default rates. Not to forget, it would make it expensive for the bank to secure funding, impacting its overall operations. Similarly, its asset management business is likely to suffer due to economic slowdown which was also evident from the Q2 2020 results – segment revenues down by 18% y-o-y.

However, there is a silver lining, both the investment banking and sales & trading businesses have seen significant growth over the first half of 2020. Fortunately for Goldman, it has a noteworthy presence in both segments, driving around 19% and 40% of the total revenues, respectively, (as per 2019 data). Given the level of volatility in equity & debt markets, the bank is well-positioned to report growth in its securities trading arm, coupled with higher investment banking revenues driven by growth in debt origination space. This, in turn, would offset the negative growth in other segments and benefit the revenue trajectory over the coming months. While Goldman Sachs’ results for Q2 saw unprecedented growth, we believe that Q3 results will also be positive.

Further, over the coming weeks, we expect continued improvement in demand and subdued growth in the number of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. to buoy market expectations. Following the Fed stimulus — which helped to set a floor on fear — the market has been willing to “look through” the current weak period and take a longer-term view, with investors now mainly focusing their attention on 2021 results. Though market sentiment can be fickle, and evidence of a sustained uptick in new cases could spook investors once again.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a top-quality portfolio to outperform the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500, Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk. It has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.

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This might include you though you may have invested money in these companies, or may have been working with one of them for years as an employee, or have consulted with them as an expert for a long time. You can play with assumptions, or try scenarios, as-well-as ask questions to other users and experts. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company’s business. Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals.

Goldman Sachs recently released their “Rule of 10” stock list. These growth stocks have shown sales increases of more than 10 percent each of the last two years, and are projected to grow sales over ten percent annually over the next two years. Stock lists like there can help investors build prospects for the next generation of FAANG stocks. 👍 GET MY FREE STOCK ANALYSIS GUIDE: “15 Minute Stock Analysis” https://40finance.com/free-report15/ This video reviews several Rule of 10 stocks in detail, including their PE ratio, earnings per share, and analyst price projections for the next year.. The following stocks are mentioned in this video: Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Are you interested in any of Goldman Sachs “Rule of 10” stocks? Let me know in the comments! Other 40 Finance videos you may like: Snowflake IPO Breakdown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SZ09… 5 Value Stocks with Upside https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ1Tb…

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