Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

Existing home sales fell for the seventh straight month in August as rising interest rates continued to sideline potential home buyers, and prices are finally starting to fall from record highs as experts project that the next few months could help ease the housing sector’s long-standing affordability crisis.

Existing home sales ticked down 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August, down from 6 million one year ago after declines across the U.S., according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.

In a statement, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called the housing sector “most sensitive to” the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and said the softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates, which peaked at 6% last week and have driven up the cost of monthly payments on new mortgages by more than 55%, an average of hundreds of dollars each month.

Amid the falling demand, the median existing home price has tumbled from a record high of $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August, down for a second straight month to the lowest level since March after breaking a five-month streak of gains.

The 7.7% yearly uptick in August home prices was the slowest year-over-year increase since June 2020, and NAR projects the median existing home price could fall more than 5% to $380,000 by the end of this year.

Others are eyeing steeper losses: In a Wednesday note, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said he expects a “sustained decline” in the sector through next spring, with prices falling as much as 20% from their peak by the middle of next year and in time helping rent inflation, which climbed 7% year over year last month, come down next year.

“Sales lag mortgage applications, which continue to fall and point to further significant declines,” Shepherdson said, predicting sales are on course to drop by another 10% or so within the next two months and adding that “even that might not be the low,” depending on what happens to mortgage rates over the next few weeks.

“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Yun says. “Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”

On Wednesday, real estate brokerage Redfin reported that the ten regions where housing is cooling the fastest are almost all either costly West Coast markets, or places that drew scores of relocating home buyers during the pandemic and became significantly less affordable. They include San Jose, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Denver.

“Housing, in short, is in recession, and everything connected to housing either is in recession now or soon will be, but the rest of the economy is not in recession because a regular housing downturn is not enough to crash the 90% of [gross domestic product] that is not housing,” says Shepherdson.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

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Fall has arrived and if you think your home needs a little upgrading after the summer, you’re probably right. But while most people associate fall decor with pumpkin spice, the color brown, tacky statement pillows, or home fragrances that smell like food, a fall refresh doesn’t have to mean any of this. We’re not quite ready for the holidays, so there is plenty of time to focus on spaces such as bedrooms, kitchens, and bathrooms by adding fresh bedding, chic accessories and luxurious home fragrances. From new launches to old favorites, here’s everything your home needs right now.

Still working from home? Say farewell to ordinary office chairs. Why not upgrade your comfort and style at the same time with a chic office chair from Elizabeth Sutton Collection? After all, you need to sit somewhere. With several styles available and a choice of gold or silver casters, and a white or black frame, these add a true pop of fun to any workspace.

Trying to manifest more this fall? It’s easy when you’re burning a Jill & Ally The Elements Crystal Candle. The brand is owned by everyone’s favorite New York Housewife Jill Zarin. Choose from blue agate (water), red agate (fire), green fluorite (earth), or clear quartz (air). Whether you use this candle as part of a manifestation ritual or just as decor, it’s a great way to add color or change the vibe of a room instantly. When the candle is finished burning, keep the crystal.

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth, this cool yet stylish portrait is the perfect way to pay tribute to Her Majesty in a living room, bedroom, or even dining room. Available in two sizes, it has been selling like hot crumpets. If you’re the only queen in your home, Cheery Designs has a great selection of unique pieces that might be more suitable.

Got too much sand in your sheets this summer? Treat yourself to something new. Boll and Branch recently launched a super luxurious Reserve Sheet Set. Made from the longest staple 100 percent organic cotton available, it’s impossible to go wrong with these sheets. Get ready for the silk-like feel to help lull you to sleep.

Those with more modern tastes will appreciate The Citizenry’s Stone Washed Linen Sheet Set. Available in a variety of colors and styles, including White, Olive, and Gingham, these sheets are a great way to warm up a modern bedroom. Don’t forget a linen bathrobe to match.

Launching on September 21st, Weezie Shower Curtains are the ideal bathroom accessory in a traditional to contemporary style bathroom. They complement the brand’s signature monogrammed towels instantly elevating the space to new levels of sophistication. Choose from two sizes and blue or grey scalloped edges.

However, if it is your kitchen that needs a little something extra, the L’Avant Collective Marble Dish Soap Kitchen Counter Tray will automatically boost your sink space. Made from the finest white Banswara marble and featuring brass accent details, it’s a chic way to display all of your favorite L’Avant Collective products.

Jenni Kayne’s cookware collaboration with Staub couldn’t possibly be any more stylish if the designer tried. Made in France, the White Truffle hue is the epitome of magnifique. Choose from an Oval Gratin or a Round Cocotte dish in a choice of two sizes. Each one has an exclusive nickel steel knob. It’s the perfect marriage of understated and jaw-dropping.

This topaz tumbler from curated online marketplace Berner and Co is a sleek way to serve everything from sparkling water to cool cocktails at your Fall soiree (or just to make any meal feel a bit more festive). Take your tablescape to brand new heights with these fabulous drinking vessels.

Speaking of tablescapes, there’s no easier way to create one than with The Bouqs new fall flower collection. Whether you prefer white arrangements, something with crimsons and oranges, or perhaps plants instead of flowers, there is something for every aesthetic. Better yet, with a subscription, you can send a monthly arrangement to yourself or to someone else and change it up each month.

But if you want to buy an arrangement and have it last for up to a year, it’s impossible to go wrong with Venus Et Fleur. The new stone collection is a welcome upgrade from the brand’s signature packaging. While the marble vessels are undeniably luxe, the sandstone vases are a great complement to a minimalist room. Choose from a variety of roses and other arrangements.

Forget books of matches and disposable plastic lighters, Seth Rogen has figured out a way for matches to go upscale with the Houseplant Pebble Match Strike. It looks like two stones, but open up this modern objéct to find a stash of matches. Keep it on a bar cart, side table or to decorate a bookshelf.

But sometimes fires aren’t always welcome, which is why it’s important for every home to have a fire extinguisher within reach. Fortunately, Weston Table makes decorative and functional ones. Choose from a variety of styles from constellations to whale and dog designs. This also makes a smart housewarming gift. Ten percent of sales are donated to the National Parks Foundation.

Fable recently launched a gorgeous collection of dinnerware perfect for any fall table. Cool and modern, the green color is a simple way to add a rustic hue to your table, whether you’re having a dinner party or just want to make things look nicer every day.

But those with more traditional tastes will absolutely fawn over Dondolo’s tabletop collaboration with dress designer Sue Sartor. Choose from Peony White or Peony Pale Blue Dinner Plates and Salad Plates. Each item is handcrafted and unique. Don’t forget to add the matching placemats and napkins. What a dreamy way to bring a touch of the south to any table.

Neon Lace’s Drink Dresses serve the same purpose as wine charms without looking hideous. Available in linen or lace, these decorative accessories make everything from wine to coupe glasses look all dressed up for the party.

Why shouldn’t your fridge have a designer touch? These cute Kate Space food containers are the perfect way to store leftover food. The Floral Fields pattern has a lively vintage vibe with a bamboo top that reads “Anything is possible.” Far nicer to eat from on the go than a standard glass food container, it makes any leftover meal taste just a little bit better.

But if your pantry shelves or refrigerator are in desperate need of a makeover, Home+Sort’s line of organizers with mDesign will check every box. From airtight jars perfect for rice to lovely lattice baskets made for holding snacks or boxes of pasta, you will wonder how you ever lived without this indispensable product line.

If you like to display olive oil in the kitchen or on the table, why not choose a delicious one with a stylish bottle such as Branche Olive Oil? This farm-to-bottle extra virgin olive oil is made with olives from the south of Spain. With clean, modern packaging and a wood stopper, design is key here. No 1 has a bolder flavor and features a green bottle while No 2 has a milder flavor and has a white bottle.

Looking for an environmentally friendly way to clean up? Arbour Every Day Spray is the perfect way to do it. This fragrance-free spray works hard to clean up grease, grime, and everyday dirt quickly. Best of all, it is totally safe, non-toxic, and antimicrobial.

If you’re trying to cut down on plastic, live a more eco-friendly lifestyle, or simply dislike those cumbersome bottles of detergent or messy powders— you will love Ecos Plastic-Free Dishwasher Detergent Sheets. Just put a sheet in the soap compartment (you need to fold it a few times) and turn it on your desired setting. Your dishes will come out sparkling clean.

Traditional devotees will love the Coley Porter Side Table. It’s so versatile that it can work as a bedside table, a desk for smaller spaces, or even as a petite bar in a living room or dining room. Available through the brand’s quick ship program, it can be customized with a selection of fabrics and shipped in just ten days.

Why just grab some ice from the refrigerator when you can display it in a beautiful ice bucket from Katie Kime? The ultimate bar cart accessory, this bucket is available in lucite, gold and silver as well as more than 37 patterns and colors. Don’t forget to add a monogram. This also makes a very thoughtful gift, especially for someone who frequently entertains.

Make this lucite dish from ArtSugar the true star of your coffee table or nightstand. Perfect for jewelry, tiny candies or just to be decorative, it’s a great accessory for any surface that needs a touch of fun. ​​

Looking for some extra inspiration for your renovations this fall? Interior designer Anne Hepfer’s book Mood has all the inspiration you need. They say not to judge a book by its cover, but this book’s bold royal blue cover is showstopping. Just wait until you see all the beautiful projects featured inside the pages.

Want your home to smell like heaven all the time? Inspired by the scent of exotic white flowers, the Kai Reed Diffuser gets pretty close. With a modern square bottle and brown reeds, it’s a truly decorative accent that also makes a very thoughtful gift. Better yet, it’s free of parabens, sulfates, phthalates, and phosphates. Not into reed diffusers? Candles and room spray are also available in the brand’s signature as well as Rose scents.

But if you prefer to diffuse an essential oil, opt for the Aroma Om Stone Diffuser in stone. Clean and minimalist looking, it features a matte finish and ceramic cover. It mists for up to three hours and shuts off automatically. It can also light up and be used as a nightlight.

34 boulevard Saint Germain is the newest fragrance from famed perfumer Diptyque. The chic candle is packaged in an opaline glass vessel and features notes of black current leave, moss, and florals. It has a spicy woodsy scent that’s undeniably sophisticated. Make any room feel perfectly on brand this fall.

Pets are great, but the odors they create leave much to be desired, especially on carpets and upholstery. Fortunately, Zoop is amazing at getting rid of pet odors and stains. Best of all, it has a fresh scent (not a chemical scent) and each bottle lasts for months. Stock up before it gets sold out again.

Are your knives feeling a little dull? Upgrade this season with a set of highly functional knives that just happen to be sleekly designed. Material knives are made from Japanese stainless steel and high carbon. This set includes a bread knife, paring knife, and chef’s knife. The sage handles simply stun.

There’s nothing that feels like a fresh, new tea towel. Magic Linen Ruffle Trim Linen Tea Towels are just so pretty and classic. Whether you’re drying off plates every day or a platter post-dinner party, these tea towels are a must. Match any kitchen with twelve different colors and prints from neutrals to shades of blue and stripes.

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Latest fed rate increase expected to further cool Phoenix real estate azfamily.com, Arizona

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These Are The 10 Major Housing Markets That Just Saw The Biggest Declines In Home Equity

As home prices soared in recent years, homeowners enjoyed record levels of tappable home equity, which is the amount of money a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20% equity stake. But that’s all changing as home prices begin to fall, with July seeing the largest decline in home prices since 2011, according to real estate data and analytics company Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor. (See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.)

Indeed, while tappable equity hit another record high in the second quarter of the year, its growth appears to have peaked. “While mortgage-holders’ tappable equity had grown 25% from last year to hit another record high in Q2, we noted that equity actually peaked in May and tracked the pullback that began in June before escalating in July,” says Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data & Analytics. “Tappable equity is now down 5% in the last two months, setting up Q3 to likely see the first quarterly decline in tappable equity since 2019.”

In some markets, this drop in tappable home equity is especially acute, the Black Knight data revealed. Five of the most equity-rich West Coast markets saw tappable equity decline by 10% to 20% from April to July. Here’s how large the declines in tappable equity were in the 10 most equity rich markets:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • Los Angeles, -10%
  • Washington DC, -4%
  • Chicago, 6%
  • Dallas , 6%
  • New York, 8%
  • Miami, 8%

Meanwhile, among the 50 most equity rich markets, here’s what happened with tappable home equity:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • Oxnard, Calif. -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • Denver, -12%
  • Sacramento, -12%
  • Santa Cruz, -11%
  • Riverside, Calif., -11%
  • Los Angeles, -10%

One big reason why tappable equity is down is, of course, that home prices are down. But it’s also likely that rising interest rates are to blame for how much equity is being withdrawn, as rising rates change how homeowners tap their equity. Homeowners had previously taken advantage of lower rates to take out HELOCs and home equity lending was up nearly 30% quarter over quarter, the largest volume in almost 12 years.

What to consider if you’re thinking about taking out a HELOC

HELOCs tend to be a far more affordable way to borrow money than either credit cards or personal loans, particuarly for homeowners with significant equity in their homes. And they can be a smart option for borrowers looking to consolidate high-interest debt or fund home improvement projects. But it’s important to get your finances in order, your credit score as high as possible and to shop around for rates. See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.

It’s also important to understand how HELOCs work, too. They are composed of a two-part structure, which is usually a 10-year draw period and a 20-year repayment period, which together equal a 30-year term. During the draw period, borrowers can withdraw as much or as little money as they like. But once the repayment period begins, money can no longer be withdrawn and the borrower begins to pay back the principal in addition to interest.

Because HELOCs are based on the amount of equity someone has in their home, the amount of money a borrower qualifies for will vary. Remember that HELOCS tend to have variable rates, which might start out low but could increase if rates rise. And because you’re using your home as collateral to take out a loan like this, you risk of losing your home if you’re unable to make your scheduled payments.

By : Alisa Wolfson

Source: These are the 10 major housing markets that just saw the biggest declines in home equity – MarketWatch

Existing Home Sales data showed a drop of 5.9% from June to July and a 20.2% drop from the same period one year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. The median price of a house rose 10.8% from one year prior to a price of $403,800, but it’s still down $10,000 from the previous month’s high, according to the National Association of Realtors.

These drops occurred despite the inventory of unsold houses rising to 1.31 million by the end of July.

“The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”

The rise in mortgage rates has helped to rapidly cool what had been a red-hot housing market, hitting a record high in median home prices. The Federal Reserve boosted the rate in an effort to contain rampant inflation.

The six-month decline marks perhaps the fastest drop off since 2005, according to Seeking Alpha.

The average seasonally adjusted rate of home sales over the past decade hovered around 5.35 million, but the current level is at around 4.81 million, down from 6.50 million in half a year. Only the first year of the pandemic shows a more severe decline in home sales.

The previous non-pandemic rate to hit a similar cliff dive occurred in 2005 after the housing bubble peaked. The following decline occurred over nine months from 2006 into 2007 and rolled into the housing crisis of 2008. And the Conference Board posted an annual rate of change in its Leading Economic Index of 0%. Seeking Alpha noted that should the rate enter negative territory, it would be the 13th time since 1960, and 66% of those previous instances preceded a recession.

Related contents:

‘The market has begun to correct itself’: House hunters say they’re ready to buy in the next… Realtor.com

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An Economist Calls For Homeowner Celebration Over High Inflation

Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan, recently posted something on Twitter that stirred the collective pot:

“Lemme ask one of those tone deaf economist questions that annoy almost everyone. Today, many families learned that the amount they owe on their mortgage has declined—in real terms—by 9.1% over the past year. Why do we hear so little about this? Why don’t we see folks celebrating?”

Some other economists agreed with him, at least in terms of how people think of economics. Many non-economists quickly came in to explain their thought processes—that the points, while technically correct, were out of context and touch.

Essentially, the critics made two points as accurately as Wolfers and company related the technicalities. People are set upon from all quarters, not just housing. And the U.S. is becoming a country, not of poverty, but entrenched poorness. That is, in the sense of “small in worth” or “less than adequate” by the Merriam-Webster definition.

It is true that as inflation increases, the monetary value of a loan with terms that established lower interest rates decreases in favor of the borrower, at least while inflation is running hot. If the total remaining on the mortgage, including interest and principal, is $X, then over the last year it’s now 9.1% less expensive because the value of the dollars is falling. The mortgage likely has no inflation escalation rider.

Now, that mortgage only remains 9.1% less expensive if there is no deflation. You do get a savings even if inflation drops to a lower rate, because the value of what a dollar can buy continues to drop. As it does pretty much every year anyway. This is one of the advantages of owning a home. The amount you own drops because there is some degree of inflation in virtually every year, as, unless you have an adjustable-rate mortgage (a bad idea in the long run that might make sense in specific circumstances in the immediate future), you’ll locked in at the level of cheaper dollars.

There’s nothing new with that and it’s how a lot of people build wealth over time. Then they, in theory, pass that property down to their children, who now have greater wealth that, in theory, can get passed down in turn, and so on. The growth of wealth becomes a multi-generational process. The longer you’re around, the greater an advantage you have.

There are two other ways you build value as a homeowner. One is, on the whole, there will be some appreciation in value over time. That comes without additional payments. The other is one of those “you get a benefit because you’re not doing something else that would cost more” kind of financial planning arguments. If you don’t own, you’re a renter and the amount you pay climbs each year. If you do own, then there’s an annual additional amount you don’t have to pay, which is a savings.

That doesn’t mean that homeowners don’t pay more every year because there’s more to owning a house than the payment. Taxes, utilities, maintenance and repair, upgrades, and so on see regularly rising costs. Still, this remains a case that things could be much worse, and you are ahead in some significant ways.

So, why aren’t people dancing in the street? The first reason the critics note is that housing, while a significant cost, isn’t the only place where people are hit. For many years, important areas of living have endured significantly higher increases than income in real terms after inflation. Healthcare, childcare, education, energy (both electric and heating and cooling), all drive up everyday expenses. They leave pay increases in the dusty plains of personal financial ledgers. Personal savings rates are dropping; credit card debt has again reached new heights.

One reason you don’t see conga lines in the street is because people are anxious about the economy and their position in it. Consumer sentiment is up a touch from June, as the newest University of Michigan polling shows, but that’s still down massively from a year earlier. If a patient is in bed with a serious illness and a doctor tells them that they don’t have an additional one, they might be glad to hear it and yet not be in a position to leap to their feet.

The second criticism is even stronger, in a social sense. If housing ownership is at about 65% in the country, should people clap for joy as they see a third of the country having to struggle much harder? When many who are not in a position to own homes are their children or nieces and nephews or kids of friends or younger people they work with? You can be thankful that you weren’t part of a massive traffic accident and yet reluctant to outwardly rejoice so as not to rub others’ noses in the dirt.

My credits include Fortune, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times Magazine, Zenger News, NBC News, CBS Moneywatch, Technology Review, The Fiscal Times, and…

Source: An Economist Calls For Homeowner Celebration Over High Inflation

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14:32
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Inflation rises to 18.60 per cent in June – NBS International Centre for Investigative Reporting

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Affordable Housing Crisis Demands ADUs And DADUs, PDQ

Rising mortgage rates mean fewer would-be buyers can afford first homes. That takes them out of the land of the American Dream, and places them squarely, and possibly interminably, back in renting country. These folks, who otherwise would have left the renting population, are instead adding to the cohort.

Their increased demand is helping propel monthly rents northward. Everywhere, it seems, the affordable housing crisis is growing, and there exists no indication it will be reversed or even slowed anytime soon.

If there are solutions to the crisis, one may be found in the concept of the Detached Accessory Dwelling Unit, or DADU. Known in some places as granny flats or coach houses, these compact dwellings are legally permitted on parcels of existing homes,

They provide additional housing options to those who otherwise likely wouldn’t have hope of finding one. And for that reason, many municipalities are making way for them. Seattle’s ADUniverse website is one example of how accepting they’ve become.

Johnston Architects

Pacific Northwest-based Johnston Architects has addressed the concept with its Twisp Cabin, which was originally designed as a vacation cabin located in the Methow Valley of Washington State. The home design has since proven remarkably adaptable.

It can be customized to almost any kind of home site or individual’s needs and has even turned up as a family home on Orcas Island, Washington. It can also be built from multiple materials, among them Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT). What’s more, it was designed to meet Seattle’s ultra-tough energy codes, the nation’s most rigorous.

The 1,300-square-foot Twisp Cabin, whose plans can be bought for $7,000, is one of a number of Johnston Architects’ customizable home designs available for purchase.

“We’ve seen housing prices increase year over year since the recession, to the point where a lot of residents couldn’t even qualify for their homes today if they had to buy them all over again,” says Jack Chaffin, a partner at Johnston Architects.

“With a chunk of their net worth tied up in the value of their houses, some homeowners, especially on fixed incomes, are vulnerable to economic downturns or unexpected expenses, like a health care crisis or increased property taxes. One way to increase affordable housing in urban areas and keep existing homeowners more secure is by building ADUs or DADUs . . .

[They] could be a solution to ‘aging in place.’ Build yourself a smaller house to live in and rent out your larger home to someone else.” Johnston Architects isn’t the only architectural firm getting in on the growing interest in ADUs nationwide. Read on for insights into two others, as well as their ADU plans.

Artisans Group

This award-winning, women-owned design studio has teamed with three municipalities in the Puget Sound area to deliver four distinctive designs featuring pre-approved construction sets eligible residents can obtain at no cost. Each of the designs might be appropriate as a backyard cottage, vacation home or adorable small dwelling.

In a prepared statement, the firm acknowledged that as many cities experience unprecedented growth, available housing stock is depleted and what housing does remain available grows ever more unaffordable. “Looking at current municipal codes, ADUs can provide an opportunity to increase the density of established neighborhoods without demolishing the neighborhood character,” the statement noted.

“However, designing a quality ADU that maximizes space and use within a minimal footprint is a challenge, takes careful consideration and is expensive for most people.”

In recognition, Artisans Group reported it got to work developing functional, beautiful and malleable predesigned ADUs, each offering savings from $25,000 to $40,000 in design fees. A number of these designs offer varying roof lines and pitch alternatives, as well as an array of entryway and view considerations.

“On a practical level,” the firm reports, “five people can purchase the same exact ADU plan and come away with five very different-looking ADUs.”

Shape Architecture

Denver, Colo.-based contemporary architecture firm Shape Architecture takes pride in designing homes that offer reduced square footage, smaller carbon footprints and lowered cost, yet meet clients’ needs for space. Homes include features highly familiar to Japanese designers, including sliding walls able to convert living rooms into guest bedrooms or family rooms into playrooms.

Shape Architecture crafted one of Seattle’s 10 pre-approved DADU designs and has built a number of DADUs across the country, some overcoming incredibly limited space parameters. In a prepared statement, the firm noted its ADU design experience has evolved into helping clients interested in multi-generational “family compounds” featuring attached or detached accessories.

Bottom line? If this admittedly limited sample is any indication, it appears very small dwellings may hold a key to helping address a very large national problem.

I launched my freelance writing career in 1989 and have since produced more than 5,000 bylined articles for a wide array of traditional and web-based

Source: Affordable Housing Crisis Demands ADUs And DADUs, PDQ

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