Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is planning to go public, and financial disclosures show a burgeoning—and surprisingly profitable—business. Amid the crypto bull market, the San Francisco company made $1.3 billion in revenue last year with a net profit margin of 25%. Roughly half of last year’s revenue came in the last four months of 2020 alone, amid a roaring bitcoin bull market, as Forbes reported in January.
Now Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, cofounder Fred Ehrsam and venture capital investors like Andreessen Horowitz are set to see their stock values take off, surpassing tens of billions in total value.
Coinbase last raised venture capital funding in October 2018 and was then valued at $8 billion. But its shares recently sold on Nasdaq’s secondary market, where shares of a private company’s stock can trade after they were first issued but before the business goes public, at an implied valuation of $77 billion. Investors speculate that Coinbase will be worth more than $100 billion when it starts trading publicly on the Nasdaq.
Brian Armstrong owns 21% of Coinbase’s stock. We currently (and conservatively) value his net worth at $6.5 billion. But if Coinbase actually reaches a $100 billion valuation, his stake would be worth about $20 billion.
We estimate that Fred Ehrsam owns 6% of Coinbase. (Some of the shares attributed to him in a regulatory filing are held in trusts that aren’t in his name. It’s unclear how much of those he owns, and he didn’t immediately respond to our request for comment.) Forbes conservatively values his net worth at $2.1 billion, making him a billionaire for the first time. If Coinbase’s market value hit $100 billion, his stake would jump to $6 billion.
Here are the sums that Armstrong, Ehrsam, Andreessen Horowitz, Union Square Ventures, Ribbit Capital and Tiger Global could inherit from the IPO, despite some of these investors recently selling large chunks of their Coinbase stock:
I lead our fintech coverage at Forbes, and I also write about blockchain technology and investing. In October 2020, three of my colleagues and I won the Excellence in Personal Finance Reporting award from the RTDNA and NEFE for our stories on Robinhood. I’ve also written frequently about leadership, corporate diversity and entrepreneurs. Before Forbes, I worked for ten years in marketing consulting, in roles ranging from client consulting to talent management. I’m a graduate of Middlebury College and Columbia Journalism School. Have a tip, question or comment? Email me jkauflin@forbes.com or send tips here: https://www.forbes.com/tips/. Follow me on Twitter @jeffkauflin. Disclosure: I own some bitcoin and ether.
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Coinbase, the largest U.S. broker of digital currencies such as bitcoin, litecoin, and ethereum, has filed to go public on the Nasdaq in a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency.
Shopify’s soaring stock has one venture capital firm looking at a $22 billion windfall that never was.
Thanks to skyrocketing demand for its online business-building tools, the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant has brought a windfall to its public market investors. Its value peaked at $84 billion last week, briefly making it the most valuable company in Canada, and pushing the net worth of its 39-year-old CEO Tobias Lutke north of $6 billion.
But for one of its earliest investors, San Francisco-based Bessemer Venture Partners, the hype around the company is bittersweet. The firm first invested $5.5 million in the company’s initial funding round, and after additional investments built a 26% stake worth $500 million when it went public in 2015. Though as is the typical modus operandi of venture capital firms — hold onto investments while the company scales and cash out following an IPO — Bessemer had redistributed all its shares back to its partners by the end of 2018, when the company was worth $15 billion.
Today Bessemer’s stake would currently be worth close to $22 billion, the firm says. In the past month, Shopify’s share price has doubled after it generated $470 million in revenue in the first quarter, as demand for its online tools has skyrocketed from brick-and-mortar retailers who have been forced online by the COVID-19 pandemic. Founded in 2006, it now has more than 1 million businesses using its platform, which provides a one-stop shop for companies to create websites with payment processing, order fulfillment and ad management.
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By exiting Shopify two years ago, Bessemer left at least $17 billion on the table. “I couldn’t comprehend that they would have this massive amount of success at that time,” says Alex Ferrara, the Bessemer partner who led Shopify’s initial funding round in 2010.
Even though a global pandemic does not factor into the forecast of most investors, Bessemer’s stake in Shopify stands out as a significant missed opportunity in venture investing because it is rare that a venture capital firm would have built such a large stake in a hot startup, says Will Gornal, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder Business School. “They’re probably kicking themselves.”
Venture capital funds are typically under pressure to post returns on investments in private startups over a relatively short period of time, between five and 10 years, says Gornal. Once a company goes public, a venture firm will often sell its shares back to its own investors, which include pension funds and university endowments, giving them the option to hold their stake in the company or cash out. This kind of mission isn’t conducive to reaping bigger returns that come years after a public offering, like those generated by other tech giants such as Amazon and Google.
Shopify is among a handful of technology companies that have surged in value as the COVID-19 pandemic has forced society to rely on online tools. The big technology firms Amazon, Microsoft and Google have floated around the $1 trillion valuation mark. The pandemic boosted the rise of newer arrivals, including Zoom, the video-conferencing firm that is now being used not only to connect office meetings but to hold family gatherings. After going public last year, the San Jose-based firm is now worth $44 billion, almost triple its value at the start of the year. Investors such as Emergence Capital Partners, which took a roughly 12% stake early in the company’s growth and says it still holds some of its shares, have had time to benefit from that public-market boost.
Some of Shopify’s early investors were being minted as billionaires even before the pandemic struck, including its CEO Lutke, his father-in-law Bruce McKean, and a couple who invested $750,000 early-on, as Forbesreported in February. But Bessemer is not alone among early investors in Shopify for exiting the company before the height of its riches were truly clear. Felicis Ventures, which invested alongside Bessemer in 2010, has since redistributed its shares back to its limited partners, the firm says.
While Bessemer’s one-time stake in Shopify might prove a once-in-a-lifetime type tech position, Ferrara says the firm will gladly take its realized returns on the deal: between 80x and 100x its initial investment. Says the venture capitalist: “We didn’t have a crystal ball.”
I’m a staff reporter at Forbes covering tech companies. I previously reported for The Real Deal, where I covered WeWork, real estate tech startups and commercial real estate. As a freelancer, I’ve also written for The New York Times, Associated Press and other outlets. I’m a graduate of Columbia Journalism School, where I was a Toni Stabile Investigative Fellow. Before arriving in the U.S., I was a police reporter in Australia. Follow me on Twitter at @davidjeans2 and email me at djeans@forbes.com
When Adrian Cheng looks across Hong Kong’s harbor from Tsim Sha Tsui, he sees his family’s legacy writ large across the city’s skyline. There, from a balcony atop the new luxury apartment building of his Victoria Dockside development, he can view the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre on the opposite side of the harbor.
With its curved glass and massive sloping roof, the convention center is said to resemble a bird taking flight. His grandfather Cheng Yu-tung, founder of the family’s flagship property firm New World Development, came up with the ambitious plan for the building, which included a manmade island, back in the early 1980s when the market was in a slump and other developers had no interest. Undeterred, Yu-tung turned the convention center into a Hong Kong icon, showcasing New World’s capabilities. Yu-tung reportedly once said the convention center was one of the two projects of which he was most proud.
And the other project? It was the New World Centre, a mixed-use complex that was demolished about a decade ago to allow the development of Victoria Dockside. Cheng has overseen this project from the start, building on the site of his grandfather’s former landmark, as part of a wider strategy to develop his K11 brand.
“I’m not inheriting a 50-year-old family business and trying to preserve it and hold it tight. That’s not me,” Cheng says. “I’m disrupting it and rejuvenating it to create a new business model.” While Cheng’s father, Henry Cheng Kar-shun, continues to serve as New World’s chairman, his eldest son is executive vice-chairman and general manager, a position he has held since 2017.
As with the convention center, the $2.6 billion project was risky. The launching of Victoria Dockside, which has opened in stages from 2018, comes as Hong Kong suffers its worst downturn in a decade. Hit by months of protests and the U.S.-China trade war, Hong Kong’s third quarter GDP contracted 3.2% from the previous quarter, after retreating 0.4% in the second quarter—its first recession since the global financial crisis in 2009.
Victoria Dockside was a gamble in another way. Cheng could have taken the safe route, choosing a conservative design. Instead, Cheng endorsed an innovative design expressing the ideals of his K11 brand, which he created and has refined since 2009. This complex is the biggest and most elaborate expression of the brand. The 65-story office tower is called K11 Atelier, the luxury apartments K11 Artus and the shopping mall with art galleries K11 Musea. The only major non-K11 brand in the complex is Rosewood Hong Kong, part of a luxury hotel chain that the family also owns.
K11 is a novel concept—blending “art, people and nature.” It is meant to fuse together elements of artistic, cultural and environmental design in public and private spaces. “I don’t see [K11 Musea] as a shopping mall, but as a place for millennials to learn, acquire knowledge and be immersed in different cultures.”
Adrian Cheng in the atrium of K11 Musea.
Ken Wu for Forbes Asia
To fulfill his vision, he hired 100 designers, architects and artists from around the world, each overseeing a different part of the complex, even utilitarian areas such as the carpark. Coordinating it all was New York’s Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates, one of the world’s leading architectural firms.
One striking example of K11’s brand DNA is the atrium of K11 Musea, which soars eight stories and features twin circular skylights and a geodesic sphere measuring 10.4 meters in diameter suspended over the space whose interior is reserved for performances or exhibitions.
Cheng’s gamble is showing early signs of paying off: even as Hong Kong’s economy contracted, K11 Musea opened last August with 97% occupancy and K11 Atelier has around 80% occupancy at rental rates above HK$100 per square foot ($13)—33% above the average rent for grade-A office space. The complex has won multiple awards—even one for its carpark, which features graffiti by Cara To, a Belgian artist born to Hong Kong parents.
“Our slogan for New World Development is we create, we are artisans,” Cheng says. “I want everyone to believe that they are a creator, that they can innovate and create things.” Victoria Dockside’s tenants include Cartier and Gucci, and several brands new to Hong Kong such as Fortnum & Mason’s first store outside the U.K., a Le Cordon Bleu cooking school and a Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry school (only the second such school in the world).
Cheng, 40 and an avid art collector, first tested K11 in Hong Kong in 2009 with a six-story “art mall” in Kowloon’s Masterpiece building, a joint venture between New World and Hong Kong’s Urban Redevelopment Authority. He then developed K11 projects in mainland China—Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, Tianjin and Wuhan—all of which combine commerce with art. He plans to keep expanding the K11 brand, with plans for a total 36 projects opened across China by 2024. He also runs the nonprofit K11 art foundation and the for-profit K11 Investment fund.
“The hardest thing I think is the tenacity and the perseverance of testing that product for the first few years, and believing that it would work, not blindly or egotistically, but knowing it would take time,” Cheng says of his vision for K11.
To further his interest in art, Cheng has taken high-level roles at some of the world’s leading art institutions, including being a board member of New York’s Museum of Modern Art PS1 and a trustee of London’s Royal Academy of Arts. He likes to pepper his social media with posts about art.
On the business side, Cheng also runs two private investment ventures from Hong Kong. The first is C Ventures, which he runs with Clive Ng, a veteran entrepreneur and investor in media and internet companies in Asia.
C Ventures has investments in about 20 fashion, media and lifestyle startups. Among them is Golong, a Hangzhou-based site selling cosmetics from trendy brands such as British brand Man Cave and Korean brand SNP. The company claims to be valued after its latest financing round at over $300 million. The K11 Investment fund invests in tech firms in areas such as AI, virtual reality and big data.
Beyond making money on the investments, Cheng sees these funds as a way to stay on top of quickly evolving tastes and technology, especially among China’s younger generation. “The paradigm shifts very fast,” says Cheng. “We’re looking at the consumer habits of millennials and Generation Z.”
Text by John Kang
Looking beyond K11 and Victoria Dockside, Cheng is continuing to expand New World through other real estate projects. Two of New World’s biggest projects under way are the HK$20 billion Skycity and the HK$30 billion Kai Tak Sports Park. The first will cover 25 hectares, and when fully completed in 2027, will be one of the largest mixed-use complexes in Hong Kong. The Kai Tak Sports Park, meanwhile, will be on the site of the former Kai Tak airport. The complex will be home to a 50,000-seat main stadium, a 10,000-seat indoor sports center, a 5,000-seat public sports ground and other facilities, and is slated for completion in 2023.
Over the next five years, New World would like to more than triple its portfolio of investment properties in Hong Kong, from 2.3 million square feet to 9.8 million. In mainland China, the company’s rental portfolio is expected to grow from 0.2 million square meters to 1.3 million. The company, he says, wants to reposition itself to focus on China’s “greater bay area”—an area within about a 100km radius around Hong Kong that China would like to develop into an integrated megalopolis, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai.
Demonstrating China’s importance to New World, the family privatized its formerly listed New World China Land in 2016 so it could have more direct control over its mainland strategy. More than 50% of its China landbank is now located in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
All this expansion comes at a cost. Among Hong Kong’s big developers, New World has one of the higher ratios of debt to equity, at 32% in 2019 compared with the previous year’s 29%. Yet Cheng is confident that New World can handle the debt load. For the fiscal year ended in June, the company’s revenues—generated through a mix of property sales and its rental business—rose 26% to HK$77 billion, while underlying profit was up 10% to HK$8.8 billion.
In December 2018, New World diversified its business further when it bought FTLife Insurance for HK$22 billion through its infrastructure subsidiary NWS Holdings. The acquisition was aimed at expanding the firm’s life and medical insurance business after it launched in the same year Humansa, a Hong Kong-based healthcare service for the elderly in the greater bay area.
To help with the need for more affordable housing in Hong Kong, New World announced last September that it would donate around 20% of its agricultural landbank, some 280,000 square meters, to the government, where it will construct over 100 apartments for low-income families by 2022. Explaining this act of generosity, Cheng says: “What I learned from my father and my grandfather is that you need to have a very big heart.”
I’m a senior editor based in Hong Kong. I’ve been reporting on Asia’s wealthiest people for Forbes and Bloomberg for about a decade. Previously, I worked with British diplomats at the consulate general in Hong Kong. Any tips, please contact me at rolsen@forbesasia.com
May.08 — Adrian Cheng, executive vice chairman at New World Development, discusses how the U.S.-China trade negotiations are impacting investor confidence in real estate, the property market in Hong Kong, his current projects, priorities in China, China’s property market and Chinese consumption trends. He speaks exclusively on “Bloomberg Markets: Asia” from the sidelines of the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Beijing.
What Can Be Better Than An Inheritance? A Personal Matching Program
Getting an inheritance can be a good thing – or a bad thing.
While Millennials may wish their inheritance will someday pay for their retirement, that may or may not happen. According to a 2018 Charles Schwab Study, more than half (53%) of young people ages 16-25, “believe their parents will leave them an inheritance, versus the average 21% of people who actually received an inheritance of any kind.”
And, if they do receive an inheritance when they are close to retirement, that may not help them. It turns out that one out of three Baby Boomers who received an inheritance spent it within two years, according to research conducted by Dr. Jay Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer at Boston University Questrom School of Business, based on data from the Federal Reserve and a National Longitudinal Survey funded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that studied the period 1985-2008.
A Better Option: A Savings Program With A Kick
Wouldn’t it be a better option to help youthful members of the family set up a savings program with a kick to it – a match that you arrange to ignite interest, leverage time and boost returns through compounding?
Let’s say your son “Steve” is a 20-year-old college student who lives at home with you. Steve has a part-time job during the school year and works full time over summer breaks.
Steve hasn’t developed a rule set for saving money. He is not eligible for a 401(k) at work. He is not thinking about a far-off retirement, but he believes he might benefit from a nice inheritance, probably just when he might need the money when he retires.
As Steve’s Mom or Dad, you know better. You’d like Steve to learn how to become financially secure in his own right.
Let’s Make A Deal
Here’s how you can help. You make a deal with Steve:
“For every dollar you save, I will match you dollar-for dollar for five years. But there is a catch. My match goes into a retirement plan for you, a Roth IRA, that you must agree not to touch until you retire someday in the far away future.”
That gives Steve something to think about. If he saved, say $500 a month of his own money, he would have $30,000 of savings in five years. He would also have an additional $30,000 funded by his parents in a Roth IRA that he would agree not to touch. Nothing wrong with that deal. . . But what about the constraint on not using that Roth money until retirement?
Maximizing Roth Limits While Avoiding Gift Taxes
That $500 monthly ($6,000 yearly) figure is magical.
It is the maximum ($6,000) that can be contributed to a Roth IRA per year, the annual limit for funding a Roth, according to the IRS.
It also happens to avoid a gift tax obligation (the parents’ match is a gift). Since $6,000 is well under the $15,000 annual exclusion, Steve’s parents would not be subject to gift taxes for funding the Roth. (Read “IRS Announces High Estate And Gift Tax Limits For 2020.”)
Will Steve Accept The Offer?
For Steve to see the full potential of the matching program, you’ll want to show him what the Roth can accomplish over the decades between now (age 20) and age 65, a period of 45 years. The Roth will need to be invested for long-term capital appreciation potential. The best way to do that is through a simple S&P 500 Index Fund.
What If The 45 Years Turn Out To Be Terrible Markets?
This is where history comes in handy.
For skeptics, we can look at the worst performing 45 year market periods since the 1920s. For the optimists, we can review the best. While history will not repeat itself exactly, history does provide a frame of reference.
Let’s go back in time to see the worst outcome for a five year program of monthly investments in an S&P 500 Index Fund with a 45 year horizon.
That 45-year period ended with the Financial Crisis (1963-2008).
Had Steve started his five-year, $500 a month program ($30,000 invested) at the worst of times, his age 65 value would have grown to $1,192,643, an average annual return of 9%.
What If The Next 45 Years Turn Out To Be Terrific Markets?
If Steve had lucked into the best 45 year period (1946-1991), he would have had $4,368,046 at age 65 (highest 45-year holding period), an average annual return of 12.4%.
What If Returns Are Just Average?
What about the median return (1931-1976)? Steve would have had $2,421,743 at age 65, an average annual return of 10.9%.
What If Steve Wanted Safety Over Capital Appreciation?
If Steve had been very conservative, he may have considered the safest option, a money market fund that tracked 90 day T-Bills. The best 45-year period for money market funds (1956-2001) would given Steve an age-65 retirement nest egg of only $356,519, a 6% average annual return.
You can see these comparisons graphically in the chart below.
Graph showing ending values of $500 monthly investments for 5 years then held for 40 years (S&P … [+]
Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers, Inc.
The point is this: Steve can’t control what type of market he will experience. But history can give him a frame of reference.
Is Steve Convinced?
To accept his parent’s matching proposal, Steve needs to see the benefit of investing in himself (and having others invest in him through the match). His interest needs to be ignited through the math behind the market, the math that leverages time and boosts returns through compounding.
Your Role As A Parent
As we approach the holidays, there will be opportunities to get together with young adults in your family. Why not impart some sage advice – in fact, not just once, but as often as possible.
Your Advice
Start saving now in a Roth IRA. Fund your 401(k) at work as soon as you become eligible; contribute each payroll period without stopping until you retire; maximize your match. Choose investments based on long-term capital appreciation potential. Take advantage of the math of compounding. And, if a parent or family member is willing to match your savings, go for it.
Survey Question
After reading this post, what is the likelihood that you will make a Roth matching proposal with your child, grandchild, niece or nephew? I’d like to know what you think. Click here to take a quick survey.
Look for my next post on what happens when someone in Steve’s position starts contributing to his 401(k) at work.
I got my start on Wall Street as a lawyer before moving to money management more than 25 years ago. My firm, Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers, Inc. (www.jacksongrant.us) of Stamford, CT, is a fiduciary high-net-worth boutique specializing in managing retirement portfolios. I approach investing with a blend of optimism (everyone can do something to improve their financial situations) and a dose of healthy skepticism (don’t invest unless you understand what can go wrong). These themes describe my “voice” whether on-air (NBC Nightly News, CNBC, NPR) or presenting (AARP, AAII, BetterInvesting) or in print. I began writing in earnest in 1996 (You and Your 401(k), an investor’s view of 401(k)s). Recent books are: Retire Securely (2018), offering concise action-oriented insights for retirees, pre-retirees and Millennials (Excellence in Financial Literacy Award “EIFLE”); The Retirement Survival Guide (2009/2017), a comprehensive tool chest for all financial levels and ages (EIFLE Award); and Managing Retirement Wealth (2011/2017), a guide for high net worth individuals (EIFLE Award). I’ve written over 1,000 weekly columns (Clarion Award, syndicated by King Features). When the time is right, I comment on SEC rule proposals.
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With a little over one month to go in 2019, small business owners should think about purchases or investments that make good business sense and will give them a break on their taxes.
Owners with available cash and a wish list should consider what equipment they need. Or, do they want to create a retirement plan or make a big contribution to an existing one? If they have home offices, are there repairs or improvements that can be done by Dec. 31? But owners should also remember the advice from tax professionals: Don’t make a decision based on saving on taxes. Any big expenditure should be made because it fits with your ongoing business strategy.
A look at some possible purchases or investments:
Need a PC or SUV?
Small businesses can deduct up-front as much as $1,020,000 in equipment, vehicles and many other types of property under what’s known as the Section 179 deduction. Named for part of the federal tax code, it’s aimed at helping small companies expand by accelerating their tax breaks. Larger businesses have to deduct property expenses under depreciation rules.
There is a wide range of property that can be deducted under Section 179 including computers, furniture, machinery, vehicles and building improvements like roofs and heating, air conditioning and ventilation systems. But to be deducted, the equipment has to be operational, or what the IRS calls in service, by Dec. 31. So a PC that’s up and running or an SUV that’s already in use can be deducted, but if that HVAC system has been ordered but not yet delivered or set up, it can’t be deducted.
It’s OK to buy the equipment and use it but not pay for it by year-end — even if a business buys the property on credit, the full purchase price can be deducted.
You can learn more on the IRS website, www.irs.gov. Search for Form 4562, Depreciation and Amortization, and the instructions for the form.
Home Office Repairs
Owners who run their businesses out of their homes and want to do some repairs, painting or redecorating may be able to get a deduction for the work. If the home office or work space itself is getting a makeover, those costs may be completely deductible. If the whole house is getting a new roof or furnace, then part of the costs can be deducted.
To claim the deduction, an owner can use a formula set by the IRS. The owner determines the percentage of a residence that is exclusively and regularly used for business. That percentage is applied to actual expenses on the home including repairs and renovation and costs such as mortgage or rent, taxes, insurance and maintenance.
There’s an alternate way to claim the deduction — the owner computes the number of square feet dedicated to the business, up to 300 square feet, and multiplies that number by $5 to arrive at the deductible amount. However, repairs or renovations cannot be included in this calculation.
Owners should remember that the home office deduction can only be taken if the office or work area is exclusively used for the business — setting up a desk in a corner of the family room doesn’t quality. And it must be your principal place of business. More information is available on www.irs.gov; search for Publication 587, Business Use of Your Home.
Retirement Plans
Owners actually have more than a month to set up or contribute to an employee retirement plans — while some can still be set up by Dec. 31, plans known as Simplified Employee Pensions, or SEPs, can be set up as late as the filing deadline for the owner’s return. If the owner gets a six-month extension of the April 15 filing deadline, a SEP can be set up as late as Oct. 15, 2020, and still qualify as a deduction for the 2019 tax year.
Similarly, contributions to any employee retirement plan can be made as late as Oct. 15, 2020, as long as the owner obtained an extension. This means owners can decide well into next year how much money they want to contribute, and in turn, how big a deduction they can take for the contribution.
You can learn more at www.irs.gov. Search for Publication 560, Retirement Plans for Small Business.