Over 30 Million Americans Are Jobless

In less than two months, we have gone from an unemployment rate of 3.5%, a 50-year low to probably over 20%, the worst level since the Great Depression. Today’s Unemployment Insurance filings were 3.2 million, higher than economists’ consensus expectations. The number of jobs created since the Great Recession that ended in 2009 have been wiped out.

In the seven weeks, since states instituted stay-at-home requirements due to the COVID-19 pandemic over 33 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits. As I have written in the last few weeks, those numbers understate the severity of the crisis, because there are still millions of Americans who have not been able to file for unemployment benefits, due to overwhelmed resources at departments of labor around the country.

I expect unemployment to continue rising in the energy sector where the default rate is significantly above the average for all companies in America. As I wrote in mid-April, high yield energy bonds are now at a record $217 billion of outstanding volume. This sector was already being adversely affected even before the 2019 crisis. According to Eric Rosenthal Senior Director – Leveraged Finance at Fitch Ratings, the “energy default rate stands at 9.9% following Whiting Petroleum Corp. WLL ’s bankruptcy.

Fitch projects the 2020 sector default rate to reach 17% by year end, closing in on the record 19.7% mark set in January 2017.” He went on to state that “Several names on our Top Bonds of Concern could be imminent defaults including Ultra Resources Corp., Vine Oil and Gas LP and Jonah Energy Inc. along with Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK , California Resources Corp., Denbury Resources Inc. DNR , Unit Corp., Bruin E&P Partners LP and Chaparral Energy Inc.” These default rates are much higher than for the average default rate for all junk bonds. And until industry and travel start up again, it is hard to envision when the energy sector will recover. Energy companies are the majority of new companies added to Fitch’s April list of bonds of concern.

After energy, the next sectors that are the most vulnerable to a rise in default and hence laying off workers are retail and leisure and entertainment.

More unemployment will be coming not only from the private sector, but also from municipalities as their financial stress increases. In a report released this week by Moody’s Investors Service, ‘Outlook changes to negative as coronavirus intensifies severity and length of recession’ analyst Natalie Claes, wrote that Moody’s “outlook for US local governments is changing to negative from stable as our expectation of the duration and intensity of the coronavirus impact on the economic downturn grows in severity. The slow recovery will impair revenue and pressure operating reserves.

The sector will face challenges for the remainder of 2020 and continuing into 2021 as the economy recovers, because trends in local governments’ primary revenue source, property taxes, lag changes in economic activity.” Additionally, she pointed out that “Sales and income tax revenue, a significant source of revenue for some local governments, is already declining sharply given a rise in unemployment, reduced consumer spending, and income tax filing extensions. Property tax revenue will not take as great a hit until 2021 because assessments are set before the collection year, but a rise in delinquencies will start to weigh on revenue this year.” Unfortunately, this means that the next tsunami of unemployment will be amongst municipal employees such as police, firefighters, and teachers.

Even if we are lucky enough to start an economic recovery this year, it is very unlikely that all workers will be able to regain their jobs. Many employers are likely to be very cautious about ramping up their businesses, especially if there is uncertainty about COVID-19 returning again later in the year. Unfortunately, we have many more weeks of millions continue to file for unemployment benefits.

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A Good Resume Is Not Enough– Five More Things Job Seekers Need To Land A Job Interview

After hiring for thousands of jobs over 20+ years of recruiting, I have seen many different styles of hiring. Sometimes, a company looks at resumes (submitted in response to a job posting or via a recruiting agency), picks a few candidates to interview and hires one person from that process. This is the traditional job search to which too many job seekers tailor all their job search efforts. However, that traditional hiring process is less and less common.

Companies are strapped for time and hiring power, and looking at stacks of resumes takes a lot of resources. I received over 1,000 resumes for a recent HR Director search. Companies know that some of the best talent is gainfully employed and not responding to job postings or even recruiters, so companies need to change their hiring to attract this desired candidate pool. For the most competitive jobs, I am actively building a candidate pipeline even before an opening is finalized.

The net result is that more companies are not selecting candidates from a stack of resumes, but rather identifying them by other means. Relying only on job postings or recruiting relationships to find job openings will not account for all available jobs. Companies are also vetting candidates earlier in the process, well before the first interview. Assuming you only have to drop a resume to get seriously considered will take you out of the running prematurely.

Having a good resume is not enough for today’s job search. Here are five things job seekers also need to land a job interview:

1 – Back door references

Most companies conduct a reference check before they hire someone. Even if you get a job offer, your offer letter might state that is conditional upon receipt of satisfactory professional references. Many job seekers are familiar with this reference check process and prepared to share a list of past supervisors and other professional references (though job seekers are not as prepared with their references as they could be!).

Back door references are different from this reference check process, in that these references are checked before an offer is decided (sometimes even before a first interview is decided). These references are also not supplied by the candidate, but rather dug up by the employer. For example, you list Company X as a former employer on your resume, and I contact a recruiting friend over at Company X to say, “John Smith was referred to me as someone who’s great at branding, and apparently he worked at your place.

Did he do well there?” This is clearly not an in-depth reference, but it’s a pulse check on whether to go any further. I have been involved with searches where my hiring clients would not move forward with any candidate where we couldn’t get at least one positive back door reference.

How would you fare in a back door reference check? Will former colleagues say positive things about you? Will former colleagues even remember you?

2 – Online profile

Even when I worked with Fortune 500, brand-name employers who had a large candidate database in-house, I still relied on LinkedIn research to identify candidates. Remember that employers love passive candidates who are not necessarily looking. These candidates surface because someone recommends them, they are well-known in their industry or they are found online.

Your online profile is not just your LinkedIn profile. It also is your activity, and everything the comes up when you do an Internet search on your name – media mentions, publications, social media activity. I once saw an executive search almost derailed because an internet search brought up a controversial comment by the candidate on a common online community (think Quora or Reddit). Some employers dig deep into your online activity. In addition, if your job or industry entails online activity – e.g., marketing, technology, media – your own online profile and activity is a reflection of your work.

Have you run an Internet search on yourself? Do you have a Google alert on your name? Is your online profile optimized?

3 – Work sample

Your online profile may already include work samples, such as a website you worked on, a report you wrote or a presentation you delivered. If you don’t want to broadcast these so publicly, you should at least have them readily available upon request. More and more employers are asking for a sample of work related to the job opening at hand.

This is partly to shave off time in the hiring process – by looking at samples in advance, employers can make even more cuts before the interview process. Asking for work samples also differentiates candidates who are willing and able to go the extra step to land the job. Candidates unwilling to provide a work sample might not be that interested in the job. Candidates unable to provide a work sample might not have the experience they claim. Better to find out now before investing any more hiring resources into that candidate.

Do you have tangible samples of your work? If you don’t yet have a portfolio of projects you have worked on, start curating now.

4 – Skills test

For a digital marketing job, candidates were sent two sample emails from a direct response campaign and asked to evaluate which was stronger and why. This gave a window into how they might design a direct response email. For a fundraising role, candidates were asked to write an introduction letter to a large donor asking for a meeting. For an executive role to lead a regional office, candidates were asked for a letter of intent to outline their particular interest in the organization.

Unlike the work sample which is something you have already done, the skills test is something completed during the hiring process and directly related to the job opening. Over the years, I have found more and more companies including a test of some kind. Many companies give a test after an initial phone screen, but some companies start with the test before any interviews. Most of these tests don’t take a lot of time, but similar to the work sample, they are effective in weeding out candidates unwilling or unable to go the extra mile.

How would you fare in a skills test for a job or company you want? Do you have the skills to do the job right now? Career changers, you cannot present like you need to learn on the job (a common mistake that career changers make!). Do you know enough about the company to write a letter of intent or outreach to its key customers?

5 – Recorded interview

Even if a company doesn’t ask for any of the above and jumps right to the interview, it still might not be the person-to-person interview you are expecting, but a recorded interview using an online service, such as Big Interview or InterviewStream. With these online services, companies pre-record screening questions and candidates conduct the interview remotely. While this simulates a first-round interview, it still requires extra work on behalf of the candidate.

Video interviews are not the same as live or phone interviews and require different preparation. You will have to learn how to use the specific technology for whatever interview recording platform the employer decides to use. Like a skills test or work sample, you have an extra step to complete before any chance of meeting someone at the company.

Are you prepared for a recorded video interview? For which jobs and companies are you willing to go the extra step?


Companies are asking for more upfront, and you decline at your peril

I once interviewed a marketing candidate who refused to take an Excel-based marketing test that would have taken less than 15 minutes. She said she was insulted to have to take it given her years of marketing experience, but since she initially asked me to send her the test, I wonder if she didn’t think she would do well. Regardless, she didn’t move forward in the process because my client only wanted to look at candidate resumes, along with their marketing test score.

I once recommended a friend to a consulting job, and the hiring company was using a video interview platform and also asked for a letter of interest and work sample. That’s three extra steps, but none of these were particularly hard or time-consuming. Video interviews typically have fewer than 10 questions, if not five.

A letter of interest is a cover letter but focused on interest for that job and company – you should have a template that can be tweaked in short order. Job seekers should always have work samples. Yet my friend refused to comply, stating that if the company were serious about her they would be willing to consider her on her resume alone.

That’s a dare that could cost her an interview. Yes, extra steps take time, but not that much time if you really know the job and want the company – which is precisely why these extra steps are becoming more common. If you are unwilling to go the extra mile, you may not move forward to the interview process.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here.

As a longtime recruiter and now career coach, I share career tips from the employer’s perspective. My specialty is career change — how to make a great living doing work that you love. My latest career adventures include running SixFigureStart, Costa Rica FIRE and FBC Films. I am the author of Jump Ship: 10 Steps To Starting A New Career and have coached professionals from Amazon, Goldman Sachs, Google, McKinsey, Tesla, and other leading firms. I teach at Columbia University and created the online courses, “Behind The Scenes In The Hiring Process” and “Making FIRE Possible“. I have appeared as a guest career expert on CNN, CNBC, CBS, FOX Business and other media outlets. In addition to Forbes, I formerly wrote for Money, CNBC and Portfolio.

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US Futures Higher Ahead of November’s Jobs Report

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At around 02:15 a.m. ET, Dow futures rose 55 points, indicating a positive open of more than 56 points.

Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were both slightly higher.

On the data front, the Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls for November at 8:30 a.m. ET.

At around 02:15 a.m. ET, Dow futures rose 55 points, indicating a positive open of more than 56 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were both slightly higher.

Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, following an upbeat tone from  Donald Trump.

On Thursday, Trump said the world’s two largest economies were inching closer to a trade deal. His comments come as investors continue to closely monitor the prospect of a so-called “phase one” trade agreement, with less than 10 days to go before Washington is poised to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods.

Dec. 15 is the date when tariffs on another $156 billion in Chinese goods will go into effect.

The U.S. and China have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.

Nonfarm payrolls

On the data front, the Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls for November at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The eagerly-anticipated figures are expected to show strong job growth last month, reflecting a temporary boost from returning General Motors autoworkers. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting 187,000 jobs added in November — one of the highest estimates this year ahead of a jobs report.

Unemployment rate data and average hourly wages for November will both be released at the same time.

Consumer sentiment for December, wholesale trade figures for October and the latest reading of consumer credit will all follow slightly later in the session.

In corporate news, Big Lots will publish its latest quarterly figures before the opening bell.

By: Sam Meredith

Source: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-futures-higher

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