New Survey Finds Inflation, Housing Costs And Eviction Threats Hitting Minorities Hardest

Minority communities have been the hardest hit financially by the current spike in consumer prices and housing costs, with high percentages of Black, Latino and Native American families reporting serious financial problems and even threats of eviction, according to a survey published Monday by the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, NPR and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

With the annual increase in consumer prices hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, Americans, by a wide margin, cite inflation as the number one problem facing the U.S. But the actual impact on individual households is more dispersed. For example, in the new survey, 58% of Black adults, 56% of Latinos and 69% of Native Americans say inflation has caused them serious financial problems, compared to 44% of white and 36% of Asian adults.

Soaring rents are similarly hitting certain minority households the hardest. In the new survey, 16% of Black renters, 10% of Latino renters and 21% of Native American renters reported they had been evicted or threatened with eviction in the past year. That compares to 9% of white and 4% of Asian families. “This is just a warning from this survey, that unless the government can provide some help for vulnerable populations, a year from now they are going to have more people who are homeless,” said Robert J. Blendon, co-director of the survey and an emeritus professor of Health Policy and political analysis at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Programs of emergency rental aid helped around 5 million American families during the early months of the pandemic, with 1.5 million fewer evictions compared to pre-pandemic levels. After 22 million Americans lost their jobs during the start of the pandemic, Congress provided $25 billion in emergency rental assistance in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CAR AR +3%ES Act) passed in March 2020. A year later, in the American Rescue Plan, it added another $21.55 billion of rental assistance.

The CARES Act also included a temporary federal eviction moratorium that expired in the summer of 2020. It was later extended by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and then by Congress, and then again by the CDC. Finally, on August 3, 2021, after a surge in Covid-19 cases due to the Delta variant, the CDC extended the moratorium yet again. Later that month, the Supreme Court ruled against it.

Meanwhile, the emergency rental funds Congress appropriated have either been used up or are being returned to the federal government unspent. For example, last Thursday, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves announced his state would halt the federally-funded Rental Assistance for Mississippians Program by Aug. 15, meaning as much as $130 million for the program would be returned to the federal government.

California, having used up its federal money, ended its Covid-19 rental assistance program on March 31, 2022. It sent more than $4 billion to 344,000 households –but around 5,400 tenants and landlords have received emails asking to return money received in Covid-19 rent relief.

The housing component of the CPI increased 5.6% in the 12 months ended in June, but that includes costs to both homeowners and renters. In many places renters have seen far greater increases. According to housing data collected by Redfin RDFN +14.3%, average asking rents in June were up 14% compared to June 2021. In some sunbelt cities like Miami, rent has increased nearly 40%.

The recent spike in rent prices leaves low-income and minority groups in particularly precarious situations. A May report by the Federal Reserve Board showed that as of last fall, about half of renters with income between $25,000 and $49,999 were already “cost burdened”—meaning they were spending more than 30% of their income on rent. In the Fed survey, 44% of Black households and 37% of Hispanic households reported they were renters, compared with just 21% of white households.

“Unless some sort of emergency help is provided, a substantial number of minority populations are going to be evicted over the next year,” Blendon warns.

MORE FROM FORBESMortgage Applications Rise In Potential Housing Market Respite-Could Home Buying Become More Affordable Soon?

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

I’m a summer intern reporting for Forbes Money and Markets. I graduated from Boston University with a degree in Journalism

Source: New Survey Finds Inflation, Housing Costs And Eviction Threats Hitting Minorities Hardest

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Housing Market Enters Into Recession Here’s What To Expect Next

The housing cycle—which began its upward climb in 2011—has officially turned over. Simply put: We’ve moved into a housing recession.

On Tuesday, we learned that homebuilders broke ground on 982,000 single-family homes in June. That’s down 19% since February, and down 16% from the same month in 2021. While it’s hardly a “blow out,” it’s clear builders are cutting back. Historically speaking, that’s exactly what happens when a housing cycle turns over: As existing home inventory—which builders compete against—begins to spike, homebuilders start to cut back.

“Peak euphoria is behind us. We are giving back some of the euphoria [home] pricing that was rolling over every housing market,” says Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Existing home inventory will continue to rise, and homebuilding will continue to slow. At least that’s the view at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which does consulting work for both builders and investors. As it does, the ongoing housing recession (i.e. a contracting housing market) could push home prices lower in bubbly regional housing markets.

Indeed, many bubbly markets, Palacios says, are barreling toward price cuts in both 2023 and 2024. That includes markets like Phoenix, Nashville, West Palm Beach, Las Vegas, and Austin. In Boise, Palacios says, home prices could go negative on a year-over-year basis as soon as December. “Builders are already [deciding] to not pour slabs in certain markets. Which is the technical trigger for a start for a home. In certain markets it will feel like [a housing bust],” Palacios says.

Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a “housing correction.” It’s easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they’d owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they’d get a $2,839 payment.

While this housing recession has hit markets coast to coast, it’s hardly even. It’s delivering a particularly hard blow to housing markets in the Mountain West, West Coast, and Southwest. Just look at the shift in inventory levels: Over the past six months, housing inventory has spiked 247% in Denver compared to just 18% in Pittsburgh. Not too far behind Denver are Austin (220%); Colorado Springs (195%); Stockton, Calif. (175%); and Boise (161%).

What’s going on? These Western housing markets also happen to be among the most “overvalued” markets in the country. As the pandemic housing boom raged over the past two years, many of those markets—which were more constrained supply-wise—saw staggering home price appreciation. In Boise, home prices jumped 53% over the past two years. That took home prices there well beyond what economic fundamentals in the market would historically support. In fact, Moody’s Analytics deems it the most “overvalued” market in the country.

Over the coming year, Moody’s Analytics expects significantly “overvalued” housing markets like Boise and Austin to see home prices fall 5% to 10%. Nationally, Moody’s Analytics expects year-over-year home price growth to be at 0%. However, if a recession hits, Moody’s Analytics predicts significantly “overvalued” housing markets could see home prices drop by 15% to 20% while national home prices would fall by around 5%.

There’s another reason bubbly markets like Austin and Phoenix are contracting faster: investors. Investors poured into the U.S. housing market over the past two years. There were small players like Airbnb hosts and mom-and-pop landlords. Home flippers returned. There were also institutional types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Zillow. Their favorite locales? Hot housing markets throughout the Mountain West, Southwest, and Southeast.

However, as housing markets in those boomtowns begin to contract, investors are the first ones who run for the exits.

“Investors sometimes move in a herd. If Phoenix real estate isn’t the cool investment anymore in 2022, it could have a big and quick impact on home sales. If a lot of investors decide to sell…yikes,” John Wake, an independent real estate analyst based in Phoenix, told Fortune.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve flipped from quantitative easing (i.e. buying bonds) to quantitative tightening (i.e. selling bonds). Immediately, financial markets pushed up both the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates. That’s exactly what the Fed wanted: If mortgage rates rose, it would cause the pandemic housing boom—which helped fuel higher inflation—to fizzle out.

“I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in June.

According to Palacios, that Fed housing “reset” actually means “falling home prices.” While the Fed didn’t directly say it, Palacios says many in the industry believe that’s exactly what’s coming next.

That ongoing housing contraction coupled with a determined Fed, Palacios says, is the perfect recipe for a recession. Historically speaking, Fed-induced recessions begin in rate-sensitive sectors like housing. It usually goes something like this: Spiking mortgage rates quickly translate into fewer home sales. Then inventory rises sharply and homebuilders scale back. Next, demand for both commodities and durable goods falls. Of course, a housing recession also brings with it layoffs.

“The lesson learned in reading [Paul] Volcker’s piece, that’s where [the Fed] messed up [in the 1970s]. If you have this red-light, green-light mentality around inflation, then you’re going to allow the psychology of inflation to get out in front of you…If you listen to the Fed over the last month or so, that’s what they’re so freaked out about,” Palacios says.

Source: Housing market enters into recession—here’s what to expect next | Fortune

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Your Sales Have Cratered. Rent Is Due. Now What?

1

Reetu Gupta’s timing could hardly have been worse. In early February, she moved four of her 10 employees out of a co-working space and into a private office in Bellevue, Washington. Her company, Cirkled In, makes a technology platform to link college recruiters with desirable high school students. Cirkled In started generating revenue at the end of 2019, and Gupta leased the cheapest space she could find, at $575 a month. She hired three salespeople, trained them, and had them ready to go on March 9.

A week later, “everything came to a screeching halt,” she says. “At first, we thought maybe the shelter-in-place order will only last a week or two. I let my salespeople go, thinking they’d be back in two weeks. I was so wrong.”

And hardly alone. Gupta says colleges and universities are still interested in her platform, partly because the plans of so many high school seniors are suddenly up in the air. But universities are also facing financial pressure as parents demand refunds for semesters completed online. Gupta still can’t work at her office. She asked for relief but the management company offered to defer her rent only until the end of May. “For some companies, deferral may be fine, but for me it is not,” she says. “I don’t want debt. I don’t want the sword of the landlord hanging over my head.”

For many businesses, rent is the second-biggest expense after payroll. But it may now be the biggest problem. By enabling states to offer more generous unemployment benefits, and by enacting a variety of loan programs for small businesses, the federal government has tried to help business owners meet payroll. There’s been less assistance with rent. Businesses that get a loan from the Paycheck Protection Program can use up to 25 percent of it on rent, but that loan amount is limited to 2.5 months’ of payroll.

With June approaching, what should you do if you can no longer pay your rent? “My best advice to everybody is to play nice in the sandbox,” says J.V. Anderton, a shareholder at law firm Loomis, Ewert, Parsley, Davis & Gotting, in Lansing, Michigan. “You want to be fair and forthright with the other side and say, this is what I can do, and this is what I’m hoping you can do for me.”

Generally, you should pay what you can, says Lenore Horton, a partner in the New York offices of law firm FisherBroyles, and keep your landlord or management company updated. If, over time, you’ll be able to catch up on the rent, Horton says that shouldn’t be a huge problem. “You just work out a payment schedule.”

If you don’t think you can catch up, you may have more leverage than you might imagine. In most places, says Anderton, a landlord is going to have to go in front of a judge to evict you. With many courts closed except for emergencies, that’s not going to be easy. Judges are supposed to enforce contracts such as leases, but “if the landlord comes off as being a jerk, a judge is going to rein that in,” says Anderton. “It’s not behavior that judges are particularly fond of, period.” States such as New York and Rhode Island have provided even more protection by also extending temporary residential eviction bans to commercial leases.

If you are a good tenant who paid reliably before the coronavirus, that will help your case. No landlord wants vacant space. Not only is there the immediate loss of income, but vacancies decrease the value of the entire building as well, says Larry Drath, a Score mentor and former real estate attorney based in New York City. “They are not looking to throw tenants out. And they’re not going to find any new tenants.”

Of course, landlords may have their own mortgages to pay. They may need approval from their lenders before modifying leases, and those banks don’t always have a lot of leeway from regulators in dealing with borrowers such as landlords. It’s still worth trying to negotiate, though.

Retailers or other businesses that have been shuttered should ask for complete rent forgiveness for the duration of the pandemic, or “until the all-clear whistle goes off and you can return to work,” says Drath. Failing that, ask for a steep discount until you can reopen. Any amount that you owe should be payable over an extended period of time. You don’t want to reopen and suddenly be facing a huge bill for deferred rent. You could pay in 12 monthly installments beginning six months after you reopen, for example.

If your business hasn’t been as hard hit, but you still need help, the principle is the same: You want some reduction, and you don’t want to be faced with a huge rent bill the minute you are able to resume a normal level of business.

Another option is to ask for any unpaid rent to be tacked onto the end of your lease, extending it for another few months. Or you could make some immediate rent relief part of your negotiation to renew your lease. You could also ask to pay some percentage of your revenue as rent.

Your landlord will likely have a few requests, too. You might need to share sales figures showing that your business has suffered, and that you really do need relief. Some landlords will want proof that you’ve submitted an insurance claim for business interruption.

If you’re not getting anywhere with your landlord, you might want to take a look at the Small Business Reorganization Act, says Horton. That legislation was significantly amended by the Cares act to include businesses with up to $7.5 million in debt.

It’s a simplified approach to bankruptcy — yes, that sounds scary — and available only to businesses that can show they are viable if they can get a break from their creditors. Horton says that some of her clients have contacted multiple landlords using a form letter stating that their business was healthy but couldn’t continue–and that no one would get paid unless the landlords made concessions.

These are hard times and you may have to play hardball. “It made a huge difference in terms of helping the landlords to see what they might get,” says Horton. “No one wants to be out there looking for a new tenant in what is going to be a renters’ market.”

By Kimberly Weisul

Source: https://www.inc.com

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In an extended interview Michelle Dickens (managing director of TPN credit bureau) unpacks the intricacies and shifting financial landscape of tenants and landlords as the fallout of the COVID-19 lockdown takes its toll. — Visit the Carte Blanche official site: https://mnet.dstv.com/show/carte-blanche Watch more series and movies on Showmax, start your 14-day free trial here: https://bit.ly/36PFSr0 Like Carte Blanche on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/carteblanchetv/ Follow Carte Blanche on Twitter: https://twitter.com/carteblanchetv/ Be a fan on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/carteblanch…
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