Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

The stock market tanked on Friday despite the August jobs report coming in slightly lower than expected and dropping significantly from last month, which did little to ease investor concerns about more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve plunging the economy into a recession.

Stocks gave up gains in the afternoon and turned negative: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%, over 300 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 1.3%.

Stocks initially opened higher after the U.S. economy added 315,000 jobs in August—slightly under the 318,000 expected by analysts and far lower than the 526,000 new jobs added in July, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Though unemployment ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%, the jobs market has remained strong despite slowing economic growth this year, which Fed officials have pointed to as evidence that the economy can withstand more aggressive rate hikes without falling into a recession.

The labor market is “less tight than it was in July” and “moving in the right direction for policymakers,” meaning that overall this is a “good report for those concerned about inflationary impacts of a tight labor market,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

Despite the solid jobs data, stocks added to losses this week and continued to fall amid hawkish comments from Fed officials that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates well into next year and it would take some time before a reversal in monetary policy.

Many Wall Street experts now warn that the prospect of the Fed raising rates “higher for longer” could well spook markets into retesting their June lows, especially as September is historically the market’s worst month on record.

“The market is in a bad place in general – rising interest rates and too high inflation,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “The Fed is somewhat on autopilot for the near future – they will be hiking rates no matter what – but to the extent that the economic data comes in like this, it could take some pressure off of them in future meetings.”

Stocks finished higher on Thursday to kick off the month of September, which has historically been a rough one for markets. Still, all three major averages are set to post their third negative week in a row, continuing a slump that began in mid-August. Optimism about a potential Fed pivot, which was driving the rally earlier this summer, has faded—especially after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell last week, who reiterated aggressive rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

Critics:

Investors parsed through the latest jobs report showing U.S. hiring remained elevated in May. Nonfarm payrolls added 390,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists expected 328,000 jobs added, according to Dow Jones. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, according to the BLS, slightly less than the consensus estimate of 0.4% and in line with April’s pace.

“Good news is bad news. … It reminds us that the Fed is still the swing factor, at least in investor emotion,” Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research, said. Traders selling stocks likely reacted to the move higher in rates with fears of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy at the forefront. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed after the report, above the 2.9% level.

“Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases, because it would signal the labor market remains very tight,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester later Friday said she supports aggressive rate hikes ahead, as she has not seen enough evidence that inflation has peaked.

“I don’t want to declare victory on inflation before I see really compelling evidence that our actions are beginning to do the work in bringing down demand in better balance with aggregate supply,” Mester said on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” Investors fear higher rates could slow the economy too much and tip it into a recession. Higher yields also discount the value of future earnings, which can make stocks look less attractive, especially growth and tech names.

Technology shares retreated Friday amid the rising rates. Micron Technology fell 7.2%, and Nvidia lost about 4.5%. Mega-cap tech names Google-parent Alphabet and Meta Platforms declined roughly 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Apple pulled back about 3.9% after a cautious research note from Morgan Stanley. The firm said slowing App Store growth could hurt the company in the near-term.

Tesla shares fell 9.2% after Reuters reported, citing an internal email, that CEO Elon Musk wants to cut 10% of jobs at the car maker. According to Reuters’ report, Musk also said in the email that he has a “super bad” feeling about the economy. The comments from Musk come after warnings from other bellwether companies this week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday said he expects an economic “hurricane” ahead amid the war in Ukraine and the Fed’s tightening regime.

On Thursday, Microsoft cut its earnings and revenue guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. This week’s decline comes in spite of a strong session Thursday and after a winning prior week. “We have transitioned pretty demonstrably from a ‘buy the dip’ world last year to a ‘sell the rally.’ Last week was a rally, this week is a bit of a pullback. Yesterday was a rally, today’s a pullback,” Nationwide’s Hackett said. “It’s very hard to have consecutive weeks or consecutive days of strength because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell,” he added.

Companies in focus
  • Tesla Inc. TSLA, -2.51% Chief Executive Elon Musk said Monday he is aiming to get the electric-vehicle maker’s self-driving technology ready by year-end, and said he hopes it could quickly be in wide release in the U.S. and even Europe depending on regulatory approval, Reuters reported. Shares finished down by 1.1%.
  • Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY, -0.92% closed 25% higher and bucked the broader market’s selloff as meme-stock investors expressed optimism ahead of the home-goods retailer’s strategic update.
  • On Monday, Boeing Co. BA, -1.20% announced an order from United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.28% for eight more 767 Freighters. That would bring package delivery giant UPS’s fleet of 767 Freighters to 108. Boeing shares ended 0.5% higher.
Other assets
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was flat.
  • Oil futures rallied, with October WTI crude CLV22, +0.44% rising $3.95, or 4.2%, to settle at $97.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery lost a dime to settle at $1,749.70 an ounce.
  • Bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.01% rose 0.9% to trade at $20,184.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +2.04% finished down by 0.8%, while London markets were closed for the summer bank holiday.
  • The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.05% ended 0.1% higher, while the Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.74% finished down by 0.7% in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.04% dropped 2.7%.

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Market Experts Predict Further Volatility As Fed Rate Hikes Leave ‘Little Room’ For Soft Landing

Wall Street pros issue warning on stocks. Here’s what they say to buy instead

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For World Population Day, a Look at The Countries With The Biggest Projected Gains  and Losses By 2100

A United Nations projection estimates that 19 of the 20 countries estimated to faced the biggest population decline are in the Eastern hemisphere.

Key Takeaways

  • Cuba is the only country from the Western hemisphere in the top 20 countries expected to have a population decline over the next few decades. Indicators that support these claims include very low immigration rate (0.1 percent of total population) and fertility rate (1.7 children per woman), which is among the lowest in Latin America.
  • Three countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 20 percent between 2020 and 2050: Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia.
  • Visual Capitalist also points out that Japan is an outlier from Asia. Japan’s birth rates have fallen since 1970 and its population began shrinking a decade ago. Last year there were 811,604 babies born in Japan and 1.44 million deaths.

Visualizing Population Decline by Country

Since the mid-1900s, the global population has followed a steep upwards trajectory.

While much of this growth has been concentrated in China and India, researchers expect the next wave of growth to occur in Africa. As of 2019, for example, the average woman in Niger is having over six children in her lifetime.

At the opposite end of this spectrum are a number of countries that appear to be shrinking from a population perspective. To shed some light on this somewhat surprising trend, we’ve visualized the top 20 countries by population decline.

The Top 20

The following table ranks countries by their rate of population decline, based on projected rate of change between 2020 and 2050 and using data from the United Nations.

Many of these countries are located in or near Eastern Europe, for reasons we’ll discuss below.

The first issue is birth rates, which according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), have fallen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Across the region, the average number of children per woman fell from 2.1 in 1988 to 1.2 by 1998.

Birth rates have recovered slightly since then, but are not enough to offset deaths and emigration, which refers to citizens leaving their country to live elsewhere.

Eastern Europe saw several waves of emigration following the European Union’s (EU) border expansions in 2004 and 2007. The PIIE reports that by 2016, 6.3 million Eastern Europeans resided in other EU states.

The Outliers

There are two geographical outliers in this dataset which sit on either side of Europe.

Japan

The first is Japan, where birth rates have fallen continuously since 1970. It wasn’t until 2010, however, that the country’s overall population began to shrink.

By the numbers, the situation appears dire. In 2021, 811,604 babies were born in Japan, while 1.44 million people died. As a result of its low birth rates, the island nation also has the world’s highest average age at 49 years old.

The Japanese government has introduced various social programs to make having kids more appealing, but these don’t appear to be getting to the root of the problem. For deeper insight into Japan’s low birthrates, it’s worth reading this article by The Atlantic.

Cuba

The second country is Cuba, and it’s the only one not located within the Eastern Hemisphere. Cuba’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman is the lowest in the Latin American region. It can be compared to countries like Mexico (2.2), Paraguay (2.5), and Guatemala (3.0).

Cuba’s immigration is also incredibly low compared to its neighboring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration, immigrants account for just 0.1% of its total population.

Four of the 10 most populous countries in the world will no longer be among the top 10 in 2100 – and all four will be supplanted by rapidly growing nations in Africa, according to recently released population projections from the United Nations.

Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico are among the world’s 10 most populous countries today. By 2100, they are projected to be overtaken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt – none of which are currently in the top 10.

This changing of the guard is expected to occur because of sluggish population growth over the next eight decades in Mexico (+10% by 2100) and population losses in Brazil (-15%), Bangladesh (-8%) and Russia (-14%). Each of the four African countries, by contrast, is expected to more than double in population, with increases of 304% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 156% in Ethiopia, 378% in Tanzania and 120% in Egypt.

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com

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Stock Futures Point to Losses for Tech Shares

U.S. stock futures ticked lower, with big technology stocks on track to lead losses after the opening bell.S&P 500 futures declined 0.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.8%. The contracts don’t necessarily predict movements after the opening bell.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4% in morning trade. Consumer staples and healthcare sectors notched the biggest losses while industrials and energy sectors rose.

Anheuser-Busch InBev slipped 2.7% snapping a run of gains of more than a week and Smith & Nephew declined 3.8%.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 0.4%. Other stock indexes in Europe also mostly fell as France’s CAC 40 was lower 0.2%, the U.K.’s FTSE 250 shed 0.3% and Germany’s DAX was down 0.4%.

The Swiss franc gained 0.1% against the U.S. dollar, with 1 franc buying $1.10. The euro depreciated 0.1% against the dollar, with 1 euro buying $1.17. The British pound was flat against the U.S. dollar, with 1 pound buying $1.38.

In commodities, international benchmark Brent crude strengthened 0.4% to $84.00 a barrel. Gold slipped 0.3% to $1,797.90 a troy ounce.

German 10-year bond yields were up to minus 0.105% and the yield on 10-year U.K. government debt known as gilts was up to 1.040%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gained to 1.606% from 1.568%. Yields move inversely to prices.

In Asia, indexes were mixed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.3% after falling as much as 1.2% during the session and China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite rose 0.8%, whereas Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.7%.

Source: Stock Futures Point to Losses for Tech Shares – WSJ

.

Related Contents:

U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks Have Lost Another $150 Billion In Market Value This Week As Beijing Targets ‘Excessive’ Wealth

Shares of Chinese tech giants trading in the United States struggled to pare losses Friday amid intensifying concerns over China’s efforts to impose sweeping new regulations on its publicly traded companies over the next several years, yielding market value losses of more than $150 billion for the 10 largest U.S.-listed Chinese stocks this week alone.

Key Facts

As of 2:45 p.m. EDT, shares of e-commerce juggernaut Alibaba, the largest Chinese company listed in the U.S., were among the hardest hit, down more than 15% on the New York Stock Exchange over the past week to $157, deflating its market capitalization to $424 billion.

Fellow online retailers JD.com and Pinduoduo, posted similarly staggering losses, wiping out about $20 billion and $10 billion in market value this week, respectively, despite ticking up about 2% Friday.

“China remains a huge source of global concern,” market analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge Media wrote in a Friday email, pointing to the nation’s strengthening regulatory campaign against corporations and actions that last month included demanding online education companies end their for-profit business models.

This week, shares of Chinese stocks have crashed steadily since Tuesday, when President Xi Jinping vowed to redistribute wealth in the nation by regulating “excessively high incomes”—spurring a sell-off that crushed shares of European luxury companies that do big business in China, like LVMH and Gucci-parent Kering.

U.S.-listed shares of online-gaming company NetEase, electric carmaker NIO and Internet firm Baidu plunged 11%, 10% and 10%, respectively, this week.

All told, the 10 largest Chinese companies trading in the United States have lost about $153 billion in market value since last week—more than 15% of their combined market value of roughly $940 billion.

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Key Background

In a matter of weeks, China has introduced harsh regulations targeting wide swaths of its economy and showing investors how risky investing in its market can be, Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, wrote in a recent note. “Yes, there’s a huge market and lots of growth potential, but obviously there are regulatory risks that seem to be growing larger with every passing month,” said Essaye.

Last week, officials released a sweeping five-year blueprint for the crackdown, covering virtually every sector in its market. Then on Wednesday, China’s market regulators published a long list of draft rules targeting tech companies, barring them from using data to influence consumer choices and “traffic hijacking activities,” among other things.

Crucial Quote

“This is all a stark reminder that the current regulatory crackdown from Beijing is not going to let up,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a Thursday note, forecasting U.S. tech stocks, which are outperforming the broader market Friday, should benefit from the tech-focused crackdown in China over the next year. “The fear with more regulation in China around the corner is a major worry that is hard for investors to digest, and it will ultimately cause more of a rotation from the China tech sector to U.S. tech.”

Surprising Fact

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index, which tracks Chinese businesses trading in the United States, is down 9% this week and has crashed 51% from a February all-time high.

Further Reading

U.S., European Investment Banks May Have Lost Some $12 Billion As Chinese Education Firms Crashed (Forbes)

China’s Internet Tycoons Suffer $13.6 Billion Wealth Drop As Regulatory Crackdown Triggers Market Sell-Off (Forbes)

Follow me on Twitter. Send me a secure tip.

I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism

Source: U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks Have Lost Another $150 Billion In Market Value This Week As Beijing Targets ‘Excessive’ Wealth

.

Market News

1h Does the US economy need another $480 billion in stimulus? – CNN Business
2h Top Wall Street analysts say these stocks are long-term buys – CNBC
22h Gold fails at $1,800, another selloff might be on its way – Kitco
1d Fed To Taper This Year – What Are the Odds? – Benzinga
1d Half a trillion dollars erased from China markets in a week – New York Post
1d US Indexes Close Higher Friday – GuruFocus
1d Taking Stock of Small-Cap Earnings – Zacks Investment Research
1d Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to take place virtually due to Covid risk – CNBC
1d Fed’s Jackson Hole conference to take place virtually – Reuters
1d U.S. dollar net long bets slip in latest week -CFTC, Reuters data – Reuters
1d China Evergrande’s Bailout Hopes Continue to Fade – GuruFocus
1d Fed ‘actively working’ on US digital currency, official says – New York Post
1d Fed Minutes, Retail Data Weighed on Wall Street This Week – Schaeffers Research
1d Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors stick to stocks, but gear up for bumpier ride – Reuters
1d Looking to Cash In on a Stronger U.S. Dollar? – ETF Trends
1d U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks Have Lost Another $150 Billion In Market Value This W… – Forbes
1d Biden Freezes Student Loan Interest Rates For 47,000 Service Members – Forbes
1d Read This Before Your Next Trade – Zacks Investment Research
1d Fed officials will seek to avoid a tantrum as they keep ‘taper talk’ going at Ja… – CNBC
1d ‘Flash recession’ could hit markets by the fall – Fox Business

Hunger is Rising, COVID-19 Will Make it Worse

The economic crisis and food system disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic will worsen the lack of nutrition in women and children, with the potential to cost the world almost $30 billion in future productivity losses. As many as 3 billion people may be unable to afford a healthy diet due to the pandemic, according to a study published in Nature Food journal. This will exacerbate maternal and child under-nutrition in low- and middle-income countries, causing stunting, wasting, mortality and maternal anemia.

Nearly 690 million people were undernourished in 2019, up by almost 60 million since 2014. Nearly half of all deaths in children under age five are attributable to undernutrition and, regrettably, stunting and wasting still have strong impacts worldwide.

In 2019, 21 per cent of all children under age five (144 million) were stunted and 49.5 million children experienced wasting.The effects of the pandemic will increase child hunger, and an additional 6.7 million children are predicted to be wasted by the end of 2020 due to the pandemic’s impact.

The situation continues to be most alarming in Africa: 19 per cent of its population is under-nourished (more than 250 million people), with the highest prevalence of undernourishment among all global regions. Africa is the only region where the number of stunted children has risen since 2000.

Women and girls represent more than 70 per cent of people facing chronic hunger. They are more likely to reduce their meal intake in times of food scarcity and may be pushed to engage in negative coping mechanisms, such as transactional sex and child, early and forced marriage.

Extreme climatic events drove almost 34 million people into food crisis in 25 countries in 2019, 77 per cent of them in Africa. The number of people pushed into food crisis by economic shocks more than doubled to 24 million in eight countries in 2019 (compared to 10 million people in six countries the previous year).

Food insecurity is set to get much worse unless unsustainable global food systems are addressed. Soils around the world are heading for exhaustion and depletion. An estimated 33 per cent of global soils are already degraded, endangering food production and the provision of vital ecosystem services.

Evidence from food security assessments and analysis shows that COVID-19 has had a compounding effect on pre-existing vulnerabilities and stressors in countries with pre-existing food crises. In Sudan, an estimated 9.6 million people (21 per cent of the population) were experiencing crisis or worse levels of food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in the third quarter of 2020 and needed urgent action. This is the highest figure ever recorded for Sudan.

Food security needs are set to increase dramatically in 2021 as the pandemic and global response measures seriously affect food systems worldwide. Entire food supply chains have been disrupted, and the cost of a basic food basket increased by more than 10 per cent in 20 countries in the second quarter of 2020.

Delays in the farming season due to disruptions in supply chains and restrictions on labour movement are resulting in below-average harvests across many countries and regions.  This is magnified by pre-existing or seasonal threats and vulnerabilities, such as conflict and violence, looming hurricane and monsoon seasons, and locust infestations. Further climatic changes are expected from La Niña.

Forecasters predict a 55 per cent change in climate conditions through the first quarter of 2021, impacting sea temperatures, rainfall patterns and hurricane activity. The ensuing floods and droughts that could result from La Niña will affect farming seasons worldwide, potentially decreasing crop yields and increasing food insecurity levels.

The devastating impact of COVID-19 is still playing out in terms of rising unemployment, shattered livelihoods and increasing hunger. Families are finding it harder to put healthy food on a plate, child malnutrition is threatening millions. The risk of famine is real in places like Burkina Faso, north-eastern Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen.

COVID-19 has ushered hunger into the lives of more urban communities while placing the vulnerable, such as IDPs, refugees, migrants, older persons, women and girls, people caught in conflict, and those living at the sharp end of climate change at higher risk of starvation. The pandemic hit at a time when the number of acutely food-insecure people in the world had already risen since 2014, largely due to conflict, climate change and economic shocks.

Acute food-insecurity is projected to increase by more than 80 percent – from 149 million pre-COVID-19, to 270 million by the end of 2020 – in 79 of the countries where WFP works. The number of people in crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) almost tripled in Burkina Faso compared to the 2019 peak of the food insecurity situation, with 11,000 people facing catastrophic hunger (IPC/CH Phase 5) in mid-2020.

For populations in IPC3 and above, urgent and sustained humanitarian assistance is required to prevent a deterioration in the hunger situation. It is alarming that in 2020, insufficient funds left food security partners unable to deliver the assistance required. For example, sustained food ration reductions in Yemen have directly contributed to reduced food consumption since March. Today, Yemen is one of four countries at real risk of famine.

Source: https://gho.unocha.org/

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Critics:

During the COVID-19 pandemic, food security has been a global concern – in the second quarter of 2020 there were multiple warnings of famine later in the year. According to early predictions, hundreds of thousands of people would likely die and millions more experience hunger without concerted efforts to address issues of food security.

As of October 2020, these efforts were reducing the risk of widespread starvation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Famines were feared as a result of the COVID-19 recession and some of the measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Additionally, the 2019–2021 locust infestation, ongoing wars and political turmoil in some nations were also viewed as local causes of hunger.

In September 2020, David Beasley, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, addressed the United Nations Security Council, stating that measures taken by donor countries over the course of the preceding five months, including the provision of $17 trillion in fiscal stimulus and central bank support, the suspension of debt repayments instituted by the IMF and G20 countries for the benefit of poorer countries, and donor support for WFP programmes, had averted impending famine, helping 270 million people at risk of starvation.

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