The Next Fintech Revolution: Agriculture Finance

A farm worker labors in a field near the town of Arvin, California. California's Central Valley is ... [+]..Getty Images

The last few years of tech news headlines were dominated by the word “fintech.” From massive fundraises to customer growth to product launches to scandals – new disruptors were everywhere in consumer banking, credit, payments, investment, and crypto. You’d have good reason to think we’ve hit peak fintech.

But the industries where most fintech is focused today represent only a fraction of the $23 trillion global financial services market. Products like Cash App, Robinhood, and Chime all tackle markets that are intuitive to everyday consumers, but consumers only see the tip of the iceberg.

Fintech’s next wave will focus on improving the less well-known, less ‘sexy’ markets fundamental to the global economy – and one of the largest markets primed for disruption is agriculture finance. 2022 saw a quiet but steady rise in fintech products being built for the massive agriculture industry, and they’re only getting started.

So – why disrupt agriculture finance to begin with? For the two best reasons in tech: the size of the market and the limitations of existing service providers.

Looking at the US alone, while farms contributed $134.7 billion to 2020 GDP, the industries dependent on farming – food manufacturing, food services, textiles – contributed over $1 trillion to the economy, accounting for over 5% of annual GDP. For many emerging markets, agriculture’s share of the overall economy is significantly higher – as much as 25% in some countries.

And yet, financial services are not as competitive as you’d expect in an industry the size of agriculture. Looking again at the US market – one of the most well-serviced in terms of agriculture finance – farm debt has continued to climb over the last year, farm loan interest rates are rising sharply, and farm lending continues to increase while the number of farm-focused banks continues to drop.

In a world where demand for food is expected to increase 70% by 2050, requiring $80 billion of annual investments, sluggish legacy players create a large and growing opportunity for new entrants.

While ‘agriculture finance’ refers to a large and heterogeneous set of activities – equipment lending, supply chain finance, commodities trading, farm banking – emerging fintechs have been focused on a few subsectors:

Agriculture Lending: Oxbury Bank in the UK raised funding twice last year to originate £650 million in agriculture loans to UK farmers. Tarfin in Turkey and Agro.Club in Eastern Europe provide supply chain financing to underserved medium-sized farmers who generally have to turn to their ag input suppliers for loans at exorbitant rates.

Companies like Crowde in Indonesia and Campo Capital in Brazil set up a peer-to-peer farm lending network. Players like Traive, AgroLend, Terra LUNA3 +1.9% Magna, and Agree all tackle farm lending across Latin America. ProducePay allows Mexican farmers to take out loans secured by their US purchasers.

Farm Payments: Agriculture tends to be a lagging industry in the use of new payment methods, with transaction products like checks still estimated at 90% of the industry. Bushel recently launched a payment facilitator, digital wallet, and embedded payments feature that connects purchasers to 40% of grain providers in the US.

Pricing Data & Commodities Trading: The deep markets for grain, livestock, and other commodities are paramount to well-functioning agriculture supply chains, and accurate pricing data is the lifeblood of the industry. These markets let purchasers hedge against rising food prices, and large agriculture operations insure themselves against supply chain price fluctuations. FarmLead is one company focused on digitally connecting cash grain trading networks and integrating trade data into other farmer & grain buyer digital tools.

Insurance: Agriculture is the most delicately poised industrial sector when it comes to climate change risks, due to incidences of drought, flooding, and natural disasters. Insurance is incredibly vital to avoid the collapse of precarious farm systems, but traditional insurers have a hard time underwriting farms. That’s where platforms like World Cover, which provides satellite-enabled climate insurance to small farmers in countries like Ghana, Uganda, and Kenya, or GramCover, focused on providing insurance access to farmers in India, come into play.

Marketplaces: While e-commerce platforms like Shopify have opened up global retail markets to independent merchants, most farm marketplaces still operate as centralized offline exchanges. In Kenya, startups like Twiga Foods, FarmShine, ShambaPride, and M-Farm have built platforms to connect farmers directly with buyers, and list easily accessible price information.

Banking: The largest prize for fintechs is to win over new customers in one vertical, such as lending or insurance, and cross-sell them banking products built specifically for their needs. DeHaat in India provides financial services to farmers across credit, materials sourcing, advisory, and sales. New Zealand’s Figured provides financial planning tools for farmers. FarmDrive creates a credit score for Kenyan farmers. Seso provides hiring, workforce management, and asset management tools to simplify farm payrolls in the US.

Over the next decade, we will see a parallel market of products across all fintech categories – banking, lending, savings, payments, investment, HR, payroll, and trading – develop focused specifically on agriculture.

While agriculture may not be the most obvious market for fintech to pursue, it’s definitely one of the largest and most consequential, and I expect to see many of these companies grow quickly and dominate the next wave of fintech.

I write about financial technology, specifically its impact on financial inclusion and opportunities for future innovation.

Source: The Next Fintech Revolution: Agriculture Finance

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How Top Consulting Firms Do Strategy

Photography by Maarten van den Heuvel on Unsplash

ome say strategy is vision, others say strategy is process and tactic. It’s one of those things everyone has a different take on. To pin down what strategy is, I started by looking at how today’s thought leaders — McKinsey, Harvard Business Review, and Monitor Deloitte — see strategy, and I’d like to share those insights with you.

McKinsey’s Take on Strategy

Strategy is…
1. An integrated set of actions to create a sustainable competitive advantage over competitors.
2. A way of thinking, not a procedural exercise or a set of frameworks.

McKinsey believes a firm should look at strategy from four lenses: financial, market, competitive advantage, operating model.

Through the financial lens, we benchmark our financial performance against peers. It’s an objective baseline for us to assess and prioritize new initiatives, and to understand what the future looks like if we follow our current trajectory.

Through the market lens, we consider:

  1. Which market segments we can grow profitably in over time
  2. Other attractive markets we should consider entering

Through the competitive advantage lens, we try to figure out what it takes to capture value and win in our current markets. We determine if we can win, win quick enough, and win sustainably.

Finally, through the operating model lens, we allocate and design our people, process, and technology resources to inform strategic objectives.

McKinsey’s 4 Lenses Strategy Framework

The Building Blocks of Strategy

Below are the core building blocks McKinsey identified.

McKinsey’s Building Blocks of Strategy

They will ensure alignment on key decisions and that the company is prepared and willing to act on the strategy adopted.

HBR’s Take on Strategy

Strategy is…
1. A plan to create value.
2. Choices to do some things and not others.

Harvard Business Review (HBR) says strategy is about expanding the top side and the bottom side of the Big I:

Diagram by Harvard Business Review on YouTube

To capture additional value, a firm must either expand willingness to pay (raise the top bar) or expand willingness to sell (lower the bottom bar).

  • improve product quality
  • expand product complements (ex. printer + cartridges)
  • build network effect
  • make employees’ jobs better
  • make suppliers’ lives easier

If the I is not expanded, value is merely shifted from the firm’s margin to their customers, their suppliers, or their staff.

Monitor Deloitte’s Take on Strategy

Strategy is…
An integrated set of choices that positions the firm in its industry, to create sustainable advantage relative to competition and superior financial returns.

Deloitte’s Strategic Choice Cascade (Diagram by Abdul Aziz)

Their iterative “cascade” to strategy development has 5 steps:

  1. Define your purpose (goals & aspirations)
  2. Pick your market (where you’ll play)
  3. Determine how you’ll win in your chosen markets
  4. Understand how you need to configure (capabilities needed to win)
  5. Decide what you’ll invest in (to support the capabilities you need)

I hope these comprehensive frameworks gave you a good overview of what strategy is and how it’s developed in the business context.

By: Yvonne Wang

Source: How Top Consulting Firms Do Strategy | by Yvonne Wang | Nov, 2022 | Medium

.

Related contents:

2023 Information Governance Trends Driving Business Strategy PRWeb (Press Release)

Q2 leads way in Small Business Digital Banking Vendor Scorecard, issued by Javelin Strategy &… PRWeb (Press Release)

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Dysfunctional Financial Markets are Making Inequality Worse All The Time

Winners and losers. Tama2u

The global market in government bonds has been bleeding red lately. “Bond market screams for help but no one answers”, says Bloomberg. It is “the worst start to a year in bonds since 2015”, according to the Financial Times.Though bonds have been declining since last summer, the sell-off became a lot more violent in February.

This meant that the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds, which is inversely related to the price, rose by around 60% to peak at over 1.6% a couple of days ago, before falling back to 1.5% at the time of writing.The US ten-year strongly influences the price of everything from mortgages to business loans in the US, and by extension around the world, so such a sharp rise has the potential to reduce borrowing and weaken the economic recovery from COVID –especially when there is so much debt in the global system.

The world’s rampant stock markets responded by going into reverse in February as they factored in higher interest rates, as well as higher production costs because of surging commodity prices.

Bond prices can fall for several reasons. It can mean that the market thinks that economic growth is going to pick up (meaning investors shift their money into riskier investments). But it can also reflect fears that inflation is on the way without much accompanying economic growth, meaning that interest rates need to go higher so that lending is still profitable.

In the present case, it is a bit of both: the rollout of the vaccination programmes has made many observers more optimistic about the prospects of a recovery. But the rise in the price of commodities like oil, copper and coffee is more about pandemic-related supply issues than because this optimism has prompted a step-change in demand.

When Fed Reserve Chairman Jay Powell failed to announce any immediate intervention to put a floor under the sell-off in bonds during a public appearance in early March, it appeared to trigger more selling – a sign that falling bond prices have been more a reflection of fears than optimism.

Interestingly, in the hours since the new US$1.9 trillion (£1.4 trillion) US stimulus package has been agreed by Congress, the bond market and stock market have both been rising. Though there have been fears that sending US$1,400 stimulus cheques to most Americans will cause a further surge in inflation, the extra consumer demand will also prop up the economy. On balance, then, this appears to have been received as a net positive by the markets.

QE and perverse consequences

Any attempt to explain what is happening in the markets needs to be in the context of quantitative easing (QE). Shortly after the first wave of lockdowns in early 2020, central banks stepped in to help their national economies. They announced huge new QE plans in which they would create new money with which to buy government bonds and other financial assets. This drove up bond prices and hence kept yields (and interest rates) at very low levels to encourage as much borrowing from consumers and businesses as possible.

Most central banks originally began QE programmes after the 2007-09 financial crisis (besides the Bank of Japan, which began a few years earlier). This was primarily to help companies get access to capital to boost their business, in the hope that they would then hire staff, which would help to reduce unemployment rates that had been sent soaring after the crisis.

However, some companies took advantage of these low interest rates in another way: they borrowed cheaply and invested it in the stock market. With investors doing likewise, this has helped to drive the relentless rise in global stock markets over the past decade. It also helps to explain why these markets have been mainly climbing ever since the COVID panic sell-off of March 2020.

In the coming months, economies are going to reopen, but interest rates are to stay low. Fed Reserve Chairman Jay Powell may have declined to announce any new interventions to date, but it is fairly clear that he will only let yields rise so far.

This gives investors a great opportunity to continue taking advantage of the situation. So long as the gain from your investment in stocks is greater than the interest rate you have to pay on your borrowings, you are a winner. Better still, buy stocks in a company such as Apple whose bonds central banks have been buying as part of their QE activities. Apple is still trading at over double the lows of March 2020, even after the February correction.

But if you are not in a position to take advantage of this one-way bet, you are a loser. The central banks have already created a situation where major institutions like the biggest hedge funds and investment banks are achieving record earnings while many families are sinking into poverty on the back of the pandemic.

The endless stimulus is in danger of creating an ever more divided society. While it is true that the latest US package (and the support measures announced in the UK budget) will temporarily help those struggling during the pandemic, the shot in the arm is also another way of propping up markets that seem too overvalued to fail.

And if they can no longer survive without central bank life-support to keep bond yields low, the question is how to prop up the markets without exacerbating inequality. It’s not clear that anyone has the answer. It might be that a shift to a much more redistributive politics to offset the widening gap between rich and poor is about the best that we can hope for.

By: Lecturer in Finance, University of Bath

Arman Hassanniakalager does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Source: Dysfunctional financial markets are making inequality worse all the time – here’s what to do about it

.

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China’s GDP Contraction A Window To Its Post-Coronavirus Future

Getty Images

Media headlines out did each other in broadcasting China’s 6.8% contraction in GDP in the first quarter this year. It was indeed breaking news in that it was the first ever contraction since China started reporting quarterly GDP data in 1992. However, beyond the headlines, there is surprisingly little that is newsworthy.

It is not telling us anything we didn’t know already. A deep contraction was widely expected because of the massive quarantine and lockdown implemented to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, which practically shut down the economy. For example, Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, ended its lockdown only on April 18 after 76 days.

Not surprisingly markets largely shrugged off the news. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% on April 17, after Nasdaq flipped into positive territory for the year the day before. Wall Street was not alone, Asian and European stocks also finished the week higher.

The slew of Beijing’s counter-cyclical policies to help the economy recover from COVID-19 has also been well and fully anticipated. Export rebate rates were raised on over 1,000 products to help exporters facing slumping demands. New infrastructure projects, many are planned and budgeted but now moved forward, have started in 25 provinces which will help prop up demand for industrial production and employment.

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, has been adding liquidity to the financial system by cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratio, as well as directing more lending to small and medium size businesses through loan guarantees. According to its data, bank loans grew by 11.5% year-on-year in March, the fastest growth rate since August 2018. This is an impressive feat.

China’s central bank is succeeding in raising bank credit growth in the midst of a massive economic contraction, something that is extremely difficult to do. None of these will bring about a V-shaped rebound, but they will pave the way for a recovery that will gather strength through the course of the second half of the year even if the global economy is still in recession.

The real news in China’s GDP contraction, which had come and gone hardly being noticed, is a policy document released without fanfare on March 30 outlining a set of wide-ranging structural reforms to be implemented in the aftermath of COVID-19. Ostensibly these structural reforms are needed, above and beyond the cyclical measures described, to revitalize an economy ravaged by COVID-19.

Upon closer scrutiny, however, it becomes clear that these are some of the deepest structural reforms that had been proposed and debated for the last two decades, and were strenuously resisted and successfully blocked or deferred by local governments. It appears that Beijing is taking advantage of COVID-19 and the unprecedented GDP contraction to ram through tough reforms that would otherwise be harder to do. What are these reforms?

These are deep and sweeping structural reforms regarding land use, the labor market, interest and exchange rates and the financial markets. They are what really matters if the Chinese economy is to become more market driven and efficient. On land use, current restrictions on how rural land can be sold and used for commercial purposes will be lifted, and the system of rural land acquisition and sales will be made market driven.

Behind these innocuous sounding policy-speak is the intention of slaying of one of communism’s sacred cows, the public ownership of land. Sweeping indeed. The removal of the household registration system, the hukou, is the centerpiece for reforming the labor market. This will be implemented nation-wide with the exceptions of a few mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

For the tens of millions of migrant workers, they will be able to become fully-fledged urban residents in towns and cities where they are gainfully employed. They will be able to live with their families and have full access to urban health care, education and social welfare services.

Apart from lifting a highly discriminatory barrier that divides the Chinese population into two unequal tiers, at one stroke this reform will also increase urban consumption demand massively, especially in housing, while further enhancing the growth and dynamism of China’s burgeoning service sector.

The integration of benchmark lending and deposit rates with market rates will be the central plank of price reform in banking and finance, which will align them to become more market driven. The RMB exchange rate will be made more flexible. Civil servant salaries will be made comparable with the private sector.

The institutional infrastructure for listing, trading and delisting in the stock markets will be streamlined with stronger regulatory oversight, and the development of the bond market will be fast-tracked to offer an expanded range of products in size and varieties. And, finally, the opening up of the financial sector to full foreign participation will be accelerated.

Successfully implementing anyone of these structural reforms would be an achievement. Getting all of them done would be a game changer. This is clearly what Beijing intends to do by seizing the opportunity created by COVID-19 and the unprecedented GDP contraction. For those who welcome engagement with China, be prepared for a more dynamic and innovative Chinese economy.

For those who fear the rise of China, get ready to face a more determined China that marches to its own tune. Finally, the GDP contraction may well be the catalyst that Beijing needs to dispense with the GDP growth target altogether.

In the past decades, it has led provincial governments to boost production regardless of real demand in order to meet such targets, burdening China’s economic structure with wasteful over-capacity as a result. Allowing GDP growth to fluctuate with the rhythm of the business cycle would be an even greater achievement. That would be truly newsworthy.

I am a Visiting Scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

Source: China’s GDP Contraction A Window To Its Post-Coronavirus Future

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Related contents:

China Hints at More Property Support as Economy Takes Priority BNN Bloomberg

China’s economy picking up but “arduous efforts” needed to sustain momentum – state planner FX Empire

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Why Investors Are Reaching For The Astrology of Finance

Why did the markets move? Most investors, analysts and even financial journalists will look, first and foremost, for news. Perhaps the jobs data were published, a firm announced it was being acquired or a central banker gave a sombre speech. Yet a small, dedicated cult of “chartists” or “technical analysts” believes that the movement of stocks, bonds and currencies can be divined by the making and interpreting of charts.

Their methods are many, varied and wackily named. A “death cross” is when a short-term moving average of an asset’s price falls below a long-term moving average. “Fibonacci retracement levels” rely on the idea that an asset climbing in price will fall back before rising again. Such backsliding is supposed to stop at levels based on Fibonacci numbers, like a 61.8% drop. The “ichimoku cloud”, loved by Japanese traders, sees the construction of a cloud by—bear with this—shading the area between two averages of high and low prices over the past week, month or two months.

A price above the cloud is auspicious; one below it is ominous. A true chartist needs only such information and “does not even care to know what business or industry a company is in, as long as he or she can study its chart”, as Burton Malkiel, an economist at Princeton and author of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, has noted.

These methods, though patently mad, have attracted attention lately because of how the s&p 500, the leading index of American stocks, has wiggled around. After slumping to a low of 3,637 on June 17th the index began to climb. On August 16th it peaked at an intraday high of around 4,325, a whisker away from its 200-day moving average of 4,326—a supposedly critical technical level.

An asset that has fallen in price but is rising is supposed to meet “resistance” at such levels. To chartists it is concerning when an asset fails to “break through” a resistance barrier—it is an indication of a bear-market rally, rather than a true bull market. And so, this time, it appears to have been: stocks have slumped by around 8% since August 16th.

Plenty of mainstream investors use some version of trend-following. Factor investing, invented by Eugene Fama, the Nobel prize-winning economist, and Kenneth French, is used by successful quantitative funds, like aqr Capital Management. It breaks down returns into component factors like “size” (small companies earn better returns than bigger ones) or “quality” (low-debt, stable businesses earn better returns than riskier ones).

Another such factor is momentum: stocks that are rising tend to keep rising. Still, their approach is a little more sophisticated than looking at a price chart. aqr’s algorithms tend to combine factors like momentum with others. They might buy, say, a small or high-quality firm whose share price has recently risen.

It is nevertheless possible to understand the chartists’ obsession with levels and trends. There is no real difference between a euro being worth $1.0001 or $0.9999, but these “big figures” in foreign-exchange markets assume importance. This is in part symbolic and in part practical: clients tend to place orders near round numbers and derivatives tend to be sold with round “strike prices”. That means it will take a lot more activity for the euro to fall from $1.0001 to $0.9999 than for it to fall from $1.0487 to $1.0485.

When placing orders, investors try to figure out where others are placing theirs. That can help them place a stop-loss order, to close a trade that moves against them, at a sensible level. If enough investors look at technical levels to inform their behaviour, then they begin to matter. Perhaps the real value of technical analysis is what its use tells you about market conditions.

No one bothers with the chartists’ pretty drawings when the economy is good, profits are high and stocks are moving smoothly higher—nor, indeed, in the depths of a frantic bear market, when prices will plunge through any and all levels technical analysts are wont to draw. Much as people who are feeling restless about the direction of their lives are more prone to become interested in astrology, investors who are uneasy about the direction of the markets will reach for the easy reassurance of an eye-catching diagram.

That some are laying the blame for the end of the summer rally on a technical tripwire suggests they have little idea what is really going on. Perhaps Buttonwood should derive a technical indicator of her own: the more regularly chartist analysis lands in her inbox, the clearer it is that no one has any clue as to why the markets are moving.

Correction (September 2nd 2022): An earlier version of this article said Eugene Fama and Kenneth French won the Nobel prize for their work on factor investing. They did not. Mr Fama won a Nobel prize for his work on the efficient-markets hypothesis. Mr French is yet to win a Nobel. Sorry.

Source: Why investors are reaching for the astrology of finance | The Economist

Critics:

Is it really that simple? I’ll fully admit that most of my understanding of the stock market is based on intuition and reading books with flashy titles. In other words, I’m far above the moving charalatan average in most aspects of my life, and you also sound like you might actually know what you’re talking about based on how definitive your answer is. If you also, for example, back-test a moving average strategy it usually ends up terrible I’ve noticed–either making almost no money or losing money.

Yet, I really like watching the stock market. It’s my favorite hobby in fact. It certainly feels like a death cross is going to be a bad time when it happens, but maybe the truth is more complicated then the cryptic silly lines I gain so much joy from.

You might already know this, but the stock market death-crossed around January and then it went down for a long time after that. But it also doesn’t always go down so dramatically every time there is a death cross. I’m not keeping accurate tallies on the whole thing, but it seems like it’s often bad when those two lines cross and often good when they cross in the opposite direction–the so-called “golden cross”.

I did actually put a little money on a stock because it golden-crossed recently and it went way up today, which was pretty exciting news. And I’m also avoiding a lot of stocks because they are about to death-crossed or just have recently on the weekly charts, but you know, I can also understand how the language I’m using might be mistaken for a seance organized by a bunch of teenagers dressed like vampires.

Mostly I listen to smart people like Warran Buffet and buy value stocks with good p/e, price-to-book, lots of equity, less debt, good earnings etc. It would be silly not to listen to the richest man in the world about what kind stocks to buy. Yet, it still feels like there’s something else there, even if my little hobby is about as realistic as playing a round of magic the gathering. It’s, you know, my little hour of make believe, that I put some money into in order to escape my otherwise mundane and factual existence.

Related News:

Investors Aren’t Betting on Post-Midterm Rally Political Wire (Weblog)

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Vidcentric                             https://jvz4.com/c/202927/376095
Viddeyo                                https://jvz6.com/c/202927/382326/
Videevolve                       https://jvz4.com/c/202927/381011/
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Video Games                            https://jvz3.com/c/202927/184902/
VideoEnginePro                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/372916
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VideoRobot Enterprise                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/291061
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VidMingo                           https://jvz6.com/c/202927/378359/
VidSnatcher                           https://jvz3.com/c/202927/342585
VidVoicer                      https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379983/
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VoiceBuddy                      https://jvz1.com/c/202927/342854
WebCop                         https://jvz4.com/c/202927/378683/
Webinarkit                       https://jvz3.com/c/202927/383937/
Webprimo                   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379455/   Website Builder
WordPress Mastery              https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386249/
WOW Backgrounds          https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381615/
WowBackgraounds           https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381556/
WP GDPR                                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/299907
WP Simulator                    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/46987/
Writer Arc           https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386602/
writing job                  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/213027
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XFUNNELS                         https://jvz2.com/c/202927/310335
Xinemax                    https://jvz1.com/c/202927/381749/
YoDrive                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/384700/
Your 3DPal                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381685/
YTSuite                       https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/381179
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