Twitter Stock: Elon Musk Could Be The Saviour It Needs Right Now

The billionaire investor and CEO of Tesla announced an offer of $54.20 for Twitter stock, which he later called his “best and final” bid for the company.

Musk wants to buy Twitter personally. Tesla is not involved in the deal, although there has been speculation that he will merge the two operations with his other businesses, including SpaceX, into one single holding company, after registering a company called X Holdings.

Musk’s offer for Twitter stock looks like a done deal

As the richest person in the world, Musk shouldn’t have any trouble raising funding for the deal. According to a regulatory filing, he has already lined up $25.5bn in debt financing from key banking partners and is looking to provide $21bn of equity for the deal himself. These funds may come from Tesla’s controversial 2018 bonus scheme.

I say he shouldn’t have any trouble raising the funds as there’s no guarantee Musk’s banking partners will stump up the cash. Part of the debt financing is a margin loan of $12.5bn secured against his stake in Tesla. Equity market volatility could send bankers running if Tesla shares suddenly plunge in value.

There are plenty of other hurdles the deal will have to overcome before the finish line, but where there’s a will there’s a way. While the current market price of Twitter stock is below the offer price of $54.20 (suggesting investors are sceptical), Musk has the resources to push through any deal.

Most importantly it seems as if he has won over the support of Twitter’s management, which only last week tried to block any potential deal by putting in place a so-called poison pill. This would have diluted the billionaire’s stake if he’d bought more than 15% of the business without their approval.

Investors should take the money and run

With tech stocks across the market facing heavy selling pressure, Musk has emerged as a white knight for Twitter’s investors. His interest in the business has shielded its shareholders from the wider market sell-off. As the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has plunged 20% this year, Twitter stock has jumped 20%.

Still, there are many reasons why the deal could fall apart, and considering the current market conditions, there is no telling where Twitter could end up if it does.

As uncertainty prevails, the best option for shareholders may be to take the money and run.

Source: Twitter stock: Elon Musk could be the saviour it needs right now | MoneyWeek

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Critics:

As of now, Twitter is still a publicly-traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. This means that for roughly ~$50 (approx. stock price), you can own a small slice of the social media giant.

However, once Musk follows through on his promise to take the company private, the ability to buy more shares will be over. But even though the deal was struck today, you’ll still be able to buy or sell Twitter stock until the deal is closed.

Dan Raju, CEO of Tradier, tells Select what Twitter shareholders should keep in mind:

  • If the deal is done today, it doesn’t mean you can’t continue to buy and sell the stock. However, he strongly believes the share price will likely become “volatile” between the time of announcing the deal to officially delisting the stock.
  • Raju said it would be “weeks rather than days” before it’s delisted on the NYSE, and it’s “hard to guess” how long the regulatory process will take.
  • His analysis says the acquisition is “good for the stock” and traders could look into call options as a way to bet on the positive reaction if the deal is struck.

So if you desire to have an ownership stake in the future of Twitter before it’s taken private, you’ll need to open a brokerage account where you can buy and hold your stocks. It’s free to open an account with brokerages like Fidelity, Robinhood or Vanguard, which let you buy and sell stock for free.

From there, simply connect a checking account to fund the purchase. Lastly, search the ticker symbol for Twitter, which is “TWTR”, and click the buy button. You can also indirectly own shares of Twitter through ETFs and index funds, which are portfolios of companies compressed into easy-to-buy shares. For example, the widely-known S&P 500 index is made up of just over 500 companies, and Twitter is one of them.

However, be aware that purchasing individual stocks, including Twitter, can be risky — buying Twitter stock above $54.20 could result in a loss.

More contents:

Tesla Stock Is Falling. How It Stands to Gain From Sale of Twitter to Musk

The Dow Is Dropping, Microsoft Earnings Are Coming—and What Else Is Happening in the Stock Market Today 

Why Twitter’s Sale to Musk Was the ‘Least Risky Choice’

Jeff Bezos Weighs in on Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover: ‘Did the Chinese Government Just Gain a Bit of Leverage?’

Elon Musk’s Twitter Buy Has at Least One Fan—Founder Jack Dorsey 

A Big Tech encore and Twitter showdown will shape biggest week of earnings season   

Elon Musk Will Make an Indelible Mark on Twitter, Experts Say 

Twitter agrees to be bought by Elon Musk for $44 billion

Reaction to Twitter and Musk split along party lines —‘An encouraging day for free speech’ or ‘a platform where only the loudest can be heard’?

It looks like nothing will stop Elon Musk from owning Twitter

Elon is the singular solution I trust,’ says Jack Dorsey of Twitter takeover plan

Twitter’s Embrace of Elon Musk’s Bid Suggests a First-Quarter Disappointment

How Elon Musk’s Twitter Offer Went From No Go to Reality

Tesla Stock Dropped After Elon Musk’s Deal for Twitter. Blame Margin Borrowing

Twitter Inc. stock outperforms market on strong trading day

Even if Musk would let Trump back on Twitter, the former president and Truth Social’s Devin Nunes say he’s not interested

Dow stages biggest intraday turnaround since February as investors brush off concerns about China’s COVID-19 lockdowns  

The Dow Rebounded, Twitter Jumped—and What Else Happened in the Stock Market Today

Twitter’s board accepts Elon Musk’s offer — and users are either celebrating ‘free speech’ or saying ‘RIP Twitter’

Twitter’s Capitulation to Musk Is Just Another Sign the Stock Market Is in Trouble

These numbers show the company has plenty of life

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Merry Christmas, Wall Street! But There’s No New Year’s Day Holiday For The Stock Market This Year—Here’s Why

1Blame it on an obscure rule. For the first time in a decade, there will be no stock market closure in observance of New Year’s Day. U.S. markets will be closed on Christmas eve on Friday because the holiday falls on a Saturday but equity markets will be open on Dec. 31, or New Year’s Eve, and operators of the New York Stock Exchange aren’t designating Jan. 3, the first Monday in 2022 as New Year’s Eve observed.

The last time this sort of calendar event transpired was New Year’s Eve Dec. 31, 2010. How rare is this calendar event. Assuming that it was applied since 1928, it would have occurred 13 times from 1928.

Dow Jones Market Data

The lack of a New Year’s Day respite for stock trades is the result of NYSE Rule 7.2, which stipulates that the exchange will be closed either Friday or the following Monday if the holiday falls on a weekend, unless “unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period.”

In this case, the last day of December is a trifecta of accounting dates, including month-end, quarter and year-end dates and comes after markets have experienced a bout of volatility in recent days.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.64% sank 433 points, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.82% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.85% indexes both registered sharp declines and their third straight drop on the back of omicron-fueled uneasiness and concerns about global economic expansion in the coming year.

By Tuesday afternoon, however, markets had made up for those losses and then some and the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.458%, was hanging near 1.50% after putting in a 3 p.m. Eastern Time finish at 1.418%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

It is worth noting though that, the U.S. Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group, recommends a 2 p.m. ET close for trading in Treasurys on Dec. 31. The holiday schedule for markets isn’t likely to alter the mood on Wall Street, however.

“I don’t see it mattering in a meaningful way,” Baird market strategist Michael Antonelli, told MarketWatch. “The final few sessions of the year have traditionally been very quiet, and the fact that we don’t have a specific holiday for New Year’s likely won’t change that at all,” he said.genesis3-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

For Christmas, the bond market will close early on Dec. 23 and remain closed on Friday, Dec. 24, Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will observe regular hours on Thursday Dec 23, closing at 4 p.m. Eastern Time and remain closed on Christmas Eve, Dec 24.

Our call of the day says investors have much to get excited about in 2022. Put growth stocks at the top of that list.

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By: Mark DeCambre

Mark DeCambre is MarketWatch’s markets editor. He is based in New York. Follow him on Twitter @mdecambre.

More Contents:

Just How Valuable Is Tax-Loss Harvesting?

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Investors looking to improve their overall portfolio returns often turn to tax-loss harvesting at the end of the year. This amounts to selling some stocks or assets that have fallen in value and using the losses to help offset capital-gains tax liability, reducing one’s overall tax bill.

But how much can you actually add to your returns by tax-loss harvesting?

My research assistant Kanwal Ahmad and I decided to tackle this question by running simulations over different tax regimens, portfolio sizes and holding periods. We found that on average an investor facing a capital-gains tax rate of 25% can juice an equity portfolio’s annual return by 1.10 percentage points to 1.42 percentage points with tax-loss harvesting.

The value that can be added is even greater when markets are more volatile, thus producing a bigger number of loser stocks, or when capital-gains tax rates are high, either because the federal government raised rates or an investor is selling short-term holdings.

To explore this issue, we pulled data on all publicly traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the old American Stock Exchange (which was acquired by the NYSE) going back to 1930. We then created value-weighted portfolios to mimic how most people invest, and ran extensive simulations of each portfolio on how to best tax-loss-harvest. 

Each simulation we ran sold off particular positions that had incurred losses according to various cutoffs. If a losing position was harvested, we added a similar asset to maintain the portfolio’s asset-allocation mix and risk level — though any position that was tax-loss-harvested wasn’t allowed to re-enter the portfolio until a month later in line with the IRS’s wash-sale rule, which says if an investment is sold at a loss and then repurchased within 30 days, the initial loss cannot be claimed for tax purposes.

We then calculated the value of tax-loss harvesting to an investor on a yearly basis as the capital-gains tax rate multiplied by the return of the stock that was cut from the portfolio, adding this up over all stocks that were harvested that year. Averaging this over all simulations and over all years, we were able to come to a maximum estimate for the value of tax-loss harvesting.

To make it a bit more realistic, we put in a condition that no more than half the portfolio could be harvested in a particular year — this we defined as our “conservative” estimate of tax-loss harvesting benefits.

Our first interesting finding is that conservatively, investors can juice their returns 1.10 percentage points a year on average, assuming a 25% tax rate. If investors are pushing it in terms of taking advantage of every tax-loss harvesting opportunity, they can add as much as 1.42 percentage points a year to their portfolio’s return.

Fund investors often debate: Should I entrust my money to an experienced fund manager with a record over many different market cycles, or should I go with an upstart manager who might have fresh ideas on how to generate gains?

My research suggests that if you want a fund that will track an index better and provide superior posttax returns, the more-seasoned fund manager is likely your best bet. If, on the other hand, you are looking for outsize bets and potential home runs, a short-tenure manager may be the way to go.

To examine the relationship between fund-manager tenure and performance, my research assistant, Ioana Baranga, and I collected data on all actively managed mutual funds between 2010 and 2020. We then partitioned all fund managers by their tenure at the fund, using a range of zero to three years to define “short tenure” managers, and six years and greater to define the “long tenure” managers. If there were multiple fund managers within the same fund, we opted to use the oldest fund manager’s tenure to define our partition.genesis3-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-2-2-1-1

Next, we explored how these fund managers differ in their returns and investment decisions. The results associated with managers in the large-cap U.S.-stock category highlight the results well. On a pretax basis, the average long-tenure manager underperforms the average short-tenure manager by 0.03 percentage point a year (12.39% average annual return for long-tenure managers versus 12.42% average annual return for short-tenure managers).

Yet this result flips when we examine posttax returns — it is actually long-tenure managers outperforming short-tenure managers by 0.14 percentage point a year, on average (9.15% average posttax annual return for long-tenure managers versus 9.01% average posttax annual return for short tenure managers).

Research Shorts

By: Derek Horstmeyer

Read more : https://www.wsj.com/

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Crypto And Digital Asset Platform Bakkt Releases First Earnings, Lays Out Bold Partnership Strategy To Growth

Today Bakkt, a mobile wallet provider and digital asset platform founded in 2018 released its first earnings as a public company. The firm began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 18th following a SPAC merger with VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings (VIH).

Casual observers may find the results underwhelming. After all, the company, whose backers include NYSE parent firm Intercontinental Exchange, and which had completed a $300 million Series B round of funding in March 2020 brought in just $9.1 million in revenue this quarter.

Granted it is up 7% from Q2 and 38% year over year, and the company reports having 1.7 million transacting accounts, but the firm still had a net loss of $28.8 million. In contrast, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase earned $1.2 billion in revenue and Square’s Cash App, which offers an easy way for users to buy bitcoin, brought in $1.87 billion in crypto revenue and $42 million in gross profit. PayPal, which offers a simple interface for users to buy and make purchases with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin cash opened 13.3 million accounts last quarter despite disappointing revenues.

However, according to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, who spoke exclusively to Forbes prior to the earnings release, this is all part of his plan for the company that has evolved from primarily being a bitcoin custodian and futures exchange to a much more comprehensive platform. Michael, who previously served as a technology executive for banks such as Citi, JPMorgan and Lloyds, intends for Bakkt to become the hub of an extensive ecosystem of business to business and consumer retail activity, with loyalty points and digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum in the center of it all.

“We see businesses leveraging our platform to drive loyalty, and to deepen their customer relationships…they’re also able to innovate with crypto services and crypto rewards, appealing to a growing segment of digitally savvy customers.”The company’s merger also brought in a war chest of more than $480 million to use for future partnerships and acquisitions.

Also not reflected in these numbers is the steady stream of brand-name partnerships brought onto the platform, starting with Starbucks this past March and growing to include Choice Hotels, Fiserv, Finastra, Wells Fargo, United Airlines and Mastercard. These tie-ups are intended to do everything from helping community banks and credit union clients invest in crypto to allow merchants on the Mastercard network to offer crypto rewards to users.

“We enable these companies to really deliver consumer choice, [offer] convenience with alternate payment methods that allow consumers to spend the value of their digital assets across merchants and enable businesses to gain access to this increased spending power.”

The market responded particularly well to the MasterCard partnership, announced on October 25th. The firm’s stock rose 400% in a week. It has since surrendered over half of those gains, but it remains up over 160% since the merger was finalized.

In addition, the firm is looking to onboard more digital assets, though Michael says that given the platform’s comparatively conservative nature compared to traditional cryptocurrency exchanges,  “It’s fair to say that we are probably a platform that will have several, rather than several 100.” Regarding stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which are increasingly becoming a focal point for regulators and entwined in global commerce and trading, Michael noted “We’re obviously watching closely what happens with stablecoins and CBDCs, because we’re an obvious choice, particularly with the partners that we’re working with…to really bring them to life.” Bakkt does not support any at this time.

With those integrations likely to wait until 2022 at the earliest, Q4 is shaping up to be an early test for Bakkt’s future. Unlike exchanges such as Coinbase, whose fortunes are highly dependent on the volatile nature of cryptocurrency prices to drive trading fees, Bakkt is more dependent upon retail spending to facilitate user growth and engagement on the platform. Q42020 was its most lucrative from a revenue standpoint in the company’s brief history, which Michael attributed in the interview to the seasonality of retail commercial activity, stating that he expects a similar trend again this year.

However, this trend could be upended, to some degree, by today’s challenging economic climate. Already retail establishments are reporting issues finding temporary staff for the holiday season, and October’s inflation numbers, which saw a 6.2% increase from a year ago, the highest jump in 31 years, may limit customer purchasing power over the next couple of months. More worrying is a growing belief among consumers and policymakers that inflation remains stickier than they would like, even if they still believe it is transitory.

That said, the silver lining could be that two industry segments not experiencing massive inflation are travel and lodging, which Bakkt supports through its partnerships with United Airlines and Choice Hotels. Airline fares actually fell 0.7% on the month and is down 4.6% year on year. The index for lodging away from home increased just 1.4%. As more of the world becomes vaccinated, travel restrictions loosen, and cross-border commerce recovers to pre-pandemic levels, Bakkt could see more engagement with its platform.

One final challenge will be convincing clients to part with their bitcoin and ethereum in exchange for goods and services. Both cryptocurrencies, which each hit new all-time highs on November 10th of $68,721 and $4,851 respectively, are seeing reductions in their circulating supply.

This trend is due to multiple factors, pre-eminent among them is the fear of someone finding in the future that they bought a $1000 cup of coffee in 2021 when they needed a quick boost. Of course, when asked about this challenge, Michael and the team are quick to point out that Bakkt is not necessarily a crypto platform, but a universal ecosystem for all digital assets.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website. Send me a secure tip.

I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before joining Kraken I

Source: Crypto And Digital Asset Platform Bakkt Releases First Earnings, Lays Out Bold Partnership Strategy To Growth

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NYSE Chair Says Survival of Digital Currencies Is ‘Unequivocal’ – Ana Alexandre

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New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) chairman Jeffrey Sprecher expressed optimism about the survival of digital currencies as an asset class, business news outlet Barron’s reported Nov. 27.

Speaking at the Consensus Invest conference, Sprecher — who is also the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — said that when he saw headlines asking “Will digital assets survive?,” he would say that “the unequivocal answer is yes.” “We’re kind of agnostic to price,” Sprecher added.

On stage at the Consensus Invest event in New York, Sprecher was accompanied by his wife and the CEO of cryptocurrency platform Bakkt, Kelly Loeffler. Bakkt is owned by ICE and anticipates its launch early next year.

Commenting on the Bitcoin (BTC) futures contract offering, Loeffler said that “the Bakkt futures contract will help Bitcoin traders establish a trusted price. Bitcoin now trades at different prices on different exchanges, many of which are unregulated.”

The NYSE and its parent firm ICE demonstrated a proactive approach to the cryptocurrency space. In January, ICE partnered with blockchain tech company Blockstream to bring “disciplined” BTC price information to major Wall Street investors. ICE then planned to pull data from 15 major exchanges and deliver it to big financial names, including hedge funds and professional trading firms.

Later in May, ICE announced plans to offer traders contracts that eventually result in customers owning BTC. ICE reportedly “has had conversations with other financial institutions about setting up a new operation through which banks can buy a contract, known as a swap, that will end with the customer owning Bitcoin the next day — with the backing and security of the exchange.”

Just earlier today, Cointelegraph reported on the establishment of an Association for Digital Asset Markets (ADAM) to create a “code of conduct” for the cryptocurrency sector. Among ADAM’s founding members are former CEO of the NYSE Duncan Niederauer along with Mike Novogratz’s crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital, global financial services firm BTIG, fintech firm Paxos and crypto liquidity solutions provider GSR.

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