Can Davao City Become The Philippines’ Next Investment Destination?

Perhaps the Philippines’ most underrated investment destination is its largest city in terms of area. Davao City has long attracted adventurous entrepreneurs and businesses for its rich natural resources and opportunities for economic growth, and yet, security issues in the southern region of Mindanao continue to deter many investors.

Drive through Davao City and you’ll see the tell-tale signs of a growing metropolis–high-end condos and malls, construction sites and traffic congestion. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is credited with bringing progress to the hometown he led as mayor

for more than two decades before moving to Malacañang Palace. Today, his children are following in his footsteps: daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio is the current mayor and his son Paolo is a congressman and other son Sebastian is city vice mayor.

In the private sector, wealth and power remain mostly in the hands of the homegrown elite: pioneer families unfazed by global stigma who invested in the city’s agribusiness, real estate, logistics and infrastructure thought too risky by their counterparts in the north. Meantime, bold foreign investors saw profit potential in this “Wild West” and blazed a trail–like Lars Wittig, country manager of Regus & SPACES by IWG Philippines.

Wittig began seeking new markets in Mindanao some 30 years ago, first for tobacco giant Philip Morris, then Dole’s plantation empire, and now for a leading operator of flexible workspaces. He says one of the biggest indicators that Davao was the place for Regus to invest was the number of gas stations, McDonalds and even the Starbucks he saw in 2012.

“This is really becoming a ground zero for all types of industries to venture into,” Wittig explained, noting the need to alleviate the burden on Metro Manila and shift operations to tier two cities like Davao. “We all know how difficult it is to maintain productivity [in Manila] and meanwhile down here, there’s less competition for a very young and IT-savvy population.”

Last month, local government and business leaders sought to sell an image of openness and security at the 5th biennial investment conference Davao ICON with the theme “Davao: Your Southeast Asian Investment Destination.” It was the first to be co-organized with the Joint Foreign Chambers of Mindanao, with a third of 600+ delegates coming from China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, and European Union countries, including the Netherlands, Sweden, France, Belgium, Romania, Hungary and Austria, many of which sent their official ambassadors based in Manila.

“We hope they will find investment opportunities here to present to their business councils and business groups,” Mayor Duterte-Carpio said after meeting the ambassadors, reassuring them that she would ask the city council to draft a resolution requesting President Duterte to consider localizing martial law to help ease foreign investors’ concerns. She admitted that martial law may not be needed for the entire region.

Leaders in the private sector say that while foreign nationals view a militarized presence in Mindanao as negative, residents and business owners welcome soldiers as support for local law enforcement, considering the region’s history and culture.

The real challenge will be taking the positive messaging and translating it into actual business deals. Aside from the long-time presence of Japanese and Chinese investors, international investment from western countries is relatively small, ranging from Swedish company Transcom Holdings’ acquisition of local BPO firm Awesome OS to Dutch experts’ work in supporting the local cacao industry.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte speaks to the media after arriving in Davao on May 16, 2017, from a working visit to China.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte speaks to the media after arriving in Davao on May 16, 2017, from a working visit to China.

MANMAN DEJETO/AFP/Getty Image

With President Duterte’s “Mindanao First” policy, more countries are exploring the region’s potential as an economic partner, rather than a beneficiary of funding for conflict resolution. Davao’s business community touted the region’s strong economic growth of 8.6% in 2018, outpacing that of the country’s GDP, which came in at 6.2%.

Mayor Duterte-Carpio pointed to efforts to improve international connections, including direct flights to/from Hong Kong, Jinjiang and Doha, and incentives for investors to inject money into rural communities. City officials touted deals with Austrian companies and Chinese firms like China Telecom and Alibaba, as well as increased official development assistance from entities like the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Asian Development Bank. The new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, or BARMM, is also focusing on economic development to support the peace process.

The message? Davao City is an attractive alternative to overcrowded Manila and Cebu, and hungry for investment partners, particularly in tourism, infrastructure, real estate, information and communication technology, and halal trade and tourism.

“You have to come and see,” says Regus’ Wittig. “You don’t know the Philippines before you have experienced the hospitality, the people, the culture, not least the nature here in Mindanao and

specifically in Davao.”

I’m an international news anchor, Asia correspondent and freelance content creator based in Manila, with 20 years of experience in news, business and lifestyle reporting, producing and anchoring across Asia and the United States, including Singapore, New York City, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles. In 2017, I launched ABS-CBN News Channel’s morning newscasts Early Edition and News Now as lead anchor and managing editor and hosted the popular “Food Diplomacy” segment. From 2013-2016, I was an anchor/correspondent for Channel NewsAsia and hosted “What’s Cooking,” a weekly food and travel show. Before moving to Asia, I worked in New York as an anchor, reporter and editor for several major media companies, including Forbes, CNBC, HGTV, Yahoo and Bloomberg. Born in Los Angeles, I graduated from UCLA and Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism.

 

Source: Can Davao City Become The Philippines’ Next Investment Destination?

Influx Of Online Casinos Helped This Philippine Tycoon Become The Country’s Newest Big Landlord

Edgar Sia II_2

Edgar Sia’s fortunes increased more than fivefold to $475 million since debuting on Forbes Asia’s list of the 50 richest Filipinos in 2011.

Sonny Thakur

Edgar Sia II made his fortune a decade ago feeding the Philippines’ appetite for chicken. Now he stands to make an even larger one feeding China’s appetite for gambling. Sia’s company DoubleDragon Properties spent the last few years building, among other things, office towers along Manila’s once-sleepy waterfront. Sia figured he’d lease the space out to call centers and business process outsourcers, key drivers of economic growth in recent years. He estimated that he could collect about $14 a square meter.

He didn’t count on demand from across the South China Sea. DoubleDragon got its towers up and running just as warming ties between Beijing and Manila sparked a boom in arrivals by Chinese eager to open offshore casinos offering online gaming to countrymen back home where casinos are illegal. DoubleDragon’s Meridian Park complex is a 10-minute drive from Manila’s Entertainment City casino complex. Sia found himself not only among the largest commercial property owners in the area, but the only one with new property to rent.

By the end of last year, tenants were signing leases for nearly $24 a square meter. “We were positively surprised with the outcome,” DoubleDragon’s 42-year-old chairman and chief executive says, with considerable understatement. The boost from offshore China gaming is just part of a property push that’s helping turn Sia from fast-food tycoon into one of the country’s biggest commercial landlords.

Far from Manila Bay, DoubleDragon is building shopping malls, hotels and industrial warehouses in smaller cities across the Philippines. Last year, it tripled net profits to roughly 7.4 billion pesos ($141 million) as revenue more than doubled to 14.3 billion pesos. DoubleDragon’s stock has climbed more than 50% this year. The company is now looking to cash in on its office towers and community malls, package these as a REIT and raise as much as 15 billion pesos via an IPO.

“Most of the baby steps and growing pains happened in the past five years,” says Sia, whose aim is for DoubleDragon to build about 1.2 million square meters of leasable commercial space by the end of 2020. “In just about a year more, the company will already become a strong adult.”

Sia’s own entrepreneurial upbringing began early. While studying architecture in university at the age of 19, he dropped out to lead a group of classmates build a 5-story hotel for budget business travelers, borrowing 40 million pesos from parents and a government pension fund to buy the land and pay for construction. “I was talking to the landowner who didn’t take me seriously,” he recalls. “So I grew a mustache to make me look older.” Sia shaved his mustache. He still owns the hotel.

In 2003 one of the country’s largest shopping mall chains, Robinson’s, opened a new wing in Iloilo offering discounted rents for restaurants. Sia seized the opportunity to launch Mang Inasal, a fast-food chicken restaurant that means “Mr. Barbecue” in the Iloilo dialect. “It was a Filipino comfort food that had not yet been turned into a fast-food fare,” Sia says. “So we created the concept, and then rapidly grew to fill and dominate the gap.”

By 2010, he had grown his barbecue-chicken chain into the country’s second-biggest fast food group, with more than 312 branches, making it bigger than McDonald’s. He sold 70% to rival Jollibee Foods for 3 billion pesos and earned a spot as the youngest member of Forbes Asia’s 2011 list of the Philippines’ 50 richest with a fortune of $85 million when he was just 34 (Sia sold his remaining 30% of Mang Inasal in 2016.) He was No. 24 on last year’s list with a net worth of $475 million.

Edgar Sia II

Edgar Sia II hopes to open 1,200 MerryMarts, a chain of grocery stores owned by his family, by 2030.

In 2013, he partnered with Jollibee founder Tony Tan Caktiong (No. 6 on the rich list) to found DoubleDragon, which went public the following year. Sia and Tan still own 35% each; Tan still sits on the board as co-chairman. Each owner’s stake is now worth about 21 billion pesos ($402 million). While its Manila Bay investment has proved unexpectedly profitable, most of DoubleDragon’s developments aren’t in Manila at all, but in small towns and cities across the country. It’s there that the company is building 60% of the commercial space it plans to build by 2020.

Sia’s wager is that rising household incomes and improving transport are about to trigger a sea change in the way consumers shop in these second- and third-tier cities. Small, family-owned supermarkets and shopping centers, he predicts, will give way to nationwide chains whose size gives them leverage over suppliers and lower costs. “Five years ago,” he says, “the top three retail chains accounted for less than 10% of the sales of manufacturers such as Unilever or Nestle. That’s gone up to a third today. In five years, it could rise to 70% to 80%.”

In preparation, Sia is building 100 shopping centers under his CityMalls brand in cities with an average population of only 160,000, each about a tenth the size of malls in bigger cities. The aim, Sia says, is to introduce big-name retail brands such as SM Savemore groceries or Watsons drugstores into these small, but increasingly affluent communities.

By the end of last year, Sia had achieved half his goal by opening 51 CityMalls. The average occupancy rate is already 96%, according to DoubleDragon, helping it more than double rental income last year from commercial and office buildings, to 2.5 billion pesos. International property consultancy Savills projects that CityMalls will account for about 40% of the community mall stock in newly urbanizing areas by next year. Sia says he’s already locked up the best locations in many emerging towns and cities: “Maybe [a competitor] can do it in one or two cities. But can you do it 100 times?”

More on Forbes: Billionaire Tony Tan Caktiong Takes Jollibee Foods Global

Sia is also ramping up in the hotel sector where he got his start. DoubleDragon operates the Hotel 101 and Jinjiang Inns budget brands in the Philippines aimed at business travelers and tourists, particularly from China. As of the end of 2018, Sia had two Jinjiang Inns and one Hotel 101, contributing a combined 534 million pesos to DoubleDragon’s revenue. Two more are under construction and DoubleDragon plans to build four more this year and next. Sia is also looking for foreign partners to expand the Hotel 101 abroad.

Building community malls in small towns, Sia says, made him realize there’s also still room for another major grocery chain in the country. So in April, he launched the first branch of MerryMart, a chain of grocery stores owned directly by his family, on the ground floor of DoubleDragon’s Meridian Park complex. His aim is to open 1,200 MerryMarts by 2030. “If we properly prepare and execute,” he says, “MerryMart can still catch up with the large retail players in the Philippines.”

But the Manila Bay investment may be DoubleDragon’s biggest money-spinner. It broke ground on the Meridian Park complex in 2015 and, by the time four of its six towers were completed last year, the company had emerged as the area’s biggest owner of new office space, according to David Leechiu of Leechiu Property Consultants, which helped find tenants for the complex.

Its timing couldn’t have been better. Offshore gaming operators’ share of office space in Metro Manila rose sevenfold in 2018 from 2016, according to Leechiu Property, faster than any other industry. By the end of last year, they accounted for almost 30% of office rentals, tripling from two years earlier.

Most online casino operators favor Manila Bay because of its proximity to Entertainment City, which caters largely to Chinese visitors who become potential customers once they return home. Property values in the district jumped 81% between 2016 and 2018, according to Leechiu, outpacing the 58% rise in Makati, Manila’s financial district.

Sia leased 100,000 square meters in his first four office towers before they were even completed, 60% to online China gaming companies. For now at least, he can virtually name his price, says Leechiu. “The deal that we did [at 1,250 pesos a square meter] is for the last vacant space in the entire Bay area for the next 12 months. The tenants know that, so they grabbed it,” he says.

Not everyone is a believer. Before its recent rise, DoubleDragon’s stock spent three years in a tailspin. One nagging investor concern: Sia is building brick-and-mortar malls in an age of online shopping. Luis Limlingan, managing director at brokerage Regina Capital Market Development in Manila, says retail shops now take up just half of Philippine malls’ leasable space, down from 80% over the past 20 years. That has made DoubleDragon a no-go for some investors. “None of the large institutional local funds invest in it,” he says.

Sia says his malls are well-positioned to absorb the impact of e-commerce in the Philippines. Online buying and delivery of groceries has yet to take off in the Philippines, he says, and “CityMalls are already 75% food and services, and more than 80% of things sold in CityMall retail shops are basic non-discretionary items.” As e-commerce spreads to the smaller cities where CityMall dominates, Sia says, they’ll double as pickup points and fulfilment centers for online stores.

DoubleDragon’s rising rental income is proof enough to other investors. “DoubleDragon’s stock started to recover this year because the assets that were completed so far have started to generate good recurring income,” says Henry Ong, an independent personal financial advisor who follows the stock. And as Sia’s expansion converts into steady cash flow, it may give him a war chest for greater diversification, says Leechiu. “Once he has a scalable recurring income base, it’s so easy for him to use it as a springboard to go to other places. It’s so easy for him to go to other sectors.” Sia’s partner Tan agrees: “[He’s] the type of entrepreneur with unlimited potential. His ability to create new compelling ventures and execute with speed is unparalleled.”

Forbes Guest Forbes Guest Contributor

FORBES ASIA chronicles wealth creation, entrepreneurial success and economic growth throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

 

 

The Philippines’ Per-Capita GDP Has Reached An All-Time High Under Duterte

Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has a terrible human rights record. But the average Filipino is doing better under Duterte.

When it comes to per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), that is. That’s a measure of the total output of a country divided by the number of people in that country.

The Philippines’ per-capita GDP was last recorded at an all-time high of 2,891.36 U.S. dollars in 2017, according to Tradingeconomics.com. That’s well above the average of 1,627.98 USD for the period 1960-2017.

Also, Filipinos are doing better under Duterte when per-capita GDP is adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). That measure, too, reached a record 7,599.19 U.S. dollars in 2017, well above the average of 4969.71 USD for the period 1990-2017.

Statistic 2015 2017
Per Capita GDP $2615.7 $2891.36
Per Capita GDP PPP 6874.4 7599.19
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.5% 7.2%

Source: Tradingeconomics.com 10/26/2018

To be fair, comparing per-capita GDP in USD for different time periods is a tricky exercise. Numbers can be distorted by population growth and currency fluctuations. For instance, the climb in the Philippines per capita GDP has been helped by a slow-down in population growth. It’s also an ongoing trend that can be traced back to the Aquino administration, which brought macroeconomic stability to the country.

“Aquino is delegating power to competent technocrats and seems to understand what needs to be done to get the lights back on,”  wrote Ruchir Sharma in Break Out Nations.

Macroeconomic stability has helped the Philippines economy demonstrate a great deal of resilience in recent years. At the end of 2017, it grew at an annual 6.9% in the September quarter. That’s the strongest growth since the third quarter 2016. And the Philippines’ economy was still growing at 6% at the end of 2018.

Tracing per-capita GDP growth back to the Aquino period certainly raises the question: Who should take credit for the record per-capita GDP, Aquino or Duterte?

Philippines iShares MSCI ETF

Philippines iShares MSCI ETF

Meanwhile, a recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) study places the Philippines among the few emerging market economies that are well-prepared to achieve sustained growth over the next decade.

That’s thanks to a rise in gross fixed-capital formation (investment). It reached 695,414.08 PHP million in the second quarter of 2018 from roughly 450,000 PHP million in July of 2015–well above the 303,138.16 PHP million for the period 1998 until 2018, and an all-time high.

Still, the Philippines’ per-capita GDP is equivalent to 23% of the world’s average, which makes Filipinos poor. And a resurgence in the cost of living in recent months makes things worse for them. The Philippines’ annual inflation rate rose to 6.7% in September of 2018 from 6.4% in the August, and compared to market expectations of 6.8%.

That’s the highest reading since February 2009, thanks to soaring food, transportation and utility prices.

Inflation, together with revolution and corruption, has suspended Philippines economic progress before, and it will do it again, if they aren’t addressed effectively.

Pilippines Corruption Rank

Pilippines Corruption Rank

So rather than celebrating record per capita GDP, Duterte’s administration should keep an eye on the price of bread and rice. And he should look at his human rights record, which cannot be balanced by any economic record.

My recent book The Ten Golden Rules Of Leadership is published  by AMACOM, and can be found here. 

I’m Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at LIU Post in New York. I also teach at Columbia University.

Source: The Philippines’ Per-Capita GDP Has Reached An All-Time High Under Duterte

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