These Are The 10 Major Housing Markets That Just Saw The Biggest Declines In Home Equity

As home prices soared in recent years, homeowners enjoyed record levels of tappable home equity, which is the amount of money a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20% equity stake. But that’s all changing as home prices begin to fall, with July seeing the largest decline in home prices since 2011, according to real estate data and analytics company Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor. (See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.)

Indeed, while tappable equity hit another record high in the second quarter of the year, its growth appears to have peaked. “While mortgage-holders’ tappable equity had grown 25% from last year to hit another record high in Q2, we noted that equity actually peaked in May and tracked the pullback that began in June before escalating in July,” says Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data & Analytics. “Tappable equity is now down 5% in the last two months, setting up Q3 to likely see the first quarterly decline in tappable equity since 2019.”

In some markets, this drop in tappable home equity is especially acute, the Black Knight data revealed. Five of the most equity-rich West Coast markets saw tappable equity decline by 10% to 20% from April to July. Here’s how large the declines in tappable equity were in the 10 most equity rich markets:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • Los Angeles, -10%
  • Washington DC, -4%
  • Chicago, 6%
  • Dallas , 6%
  • New York, 8%
  • Miami, 8%

Meanwhile, among the 50 most equity rich markets, here’s what happened with tappable home equity:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • Oxnard, Calif. -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • Denver, -12%
  • Sacramento, -12%
  • Santa Cruz, -11%
  • Riverside, Calif., -11%
  • Los Angeles, -10%

One big reason why tappable equity is down is, of course, that home prices are down. But it’s also likely that rising interest rates are to blame for how much equity is being withdrawn, as rising rates change how homeowners tap their equity. Homeowners had previously taken advantage of lower rates to take out HELOCs and home equity lending was up nearly 30% quarter over quarter, the largest volume in almost 12 years.

What to consider if you’re thinking about taking out a HELOC

HELOCs tend to be a far more affordable way to borrow money than either credit cards or personal loans, particuarly for homeowners with significant equity in their homes. And they can be a smart option for borrowers looking to consolidate high-interest debt or fund home improvement projects. But it’s important to get your finances in order, your credit score as high as possible and to shop around for rates. See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.

It’s also important to understand how HELOCs work, too. They are composed of a two-part structure, which is usually a 10-year draw period and a 20-year repayment period, which together equal a 30-year term. During the draw period, borrowers can withdraw as much or as little money as they like. But once the repayment period begins, money can no longer be withdrawn and the borrower begins to pay back the principal in addition to interest.

Because HELOCs are based on the amount of equity someone has in their home, the amount of money a borrower qualifies for will vary. Remember that HELOCS tend to have variable rates, which might start out low but could increase if rates rise. And because you’re using your home as collateral to take out a loan like this, you risk of losing your home if you’re unable to make your scheduled payments.

By : Alisa Wolfson

Source: These are the 10 major housing markets that just saw the biggest declines in home equity – MarketWatch

Existing Home Sales data showed a drop of 5.9% from June to July and a 20.2% drop from the same period one year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. The median price of a house rose 10.8% from one year prior to a price of $403,800, but it’s still down $10,000 from the previous month’s high, according to the National Association of Realtors.

These drops occurred despite the inventory of unsold houses rising to 1.31 million by the end of July.

“The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”

The rise in mortgage rates has helped to rapidly cool what had been a red-hot housing market, hitting a record high in median home prices. The Federal Reserve boosted the rate in an effort to contain rampant inflation.

The six-month decline marks perhaps the fastest drop off since 2005, according to Seeking Alpha.

The average seasonally adjusted rate of home sales over the past decade hovered around 5.35 million, but the current level is at around 4.81 million, down from 6.50 million in half a year. Only the first year of the pandemic shows a more severe decline in home sales.

The previous non-pandemic rate to hit a similar cliff dive occurred in 2005 after the housing bubble peaked. The following decline occurred over nine months from 2006 into 2007 and rolled into the housing crisis of 2008. And the Conference Board posted an annual rate of change in its Leading Economic Index of 0%. Seeking Alpha noted that should the rate enter negative territory, it would be the 13th time since 1960, and 66% of those previous instances preceded a recession.

Related contents:

‘The market has begun to correct itself’: House hunters say they’re ready to buy in the next… Realtor.com

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New Survey Finds Inflation, Housing Costs And Eviction Threats Hitting Minorities Hardest

Minority communities have been the hardest hit financially by the current spike in consumer prices and housing costs, with high percentages of Black, Latino and Native American families reporting serious financial problems and even threats of eviction, according to a survey published Monday by the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, NPR and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

With the annual increase in consumer prices hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, Americans, by a wide margin, cite inflation as the number one problem facing the U.S. But the actual impact on individual households is more dispersed. For example, in the new survey, 58% of Black adults, 56% of Latinos and 69% of Native Americans say inflation has caused them serious financial problems, compared to 44% of white and 36% of Asian adults.

Soaring rents are similarly hitting certain minority households the hardest. In the new survey, 16% of Black renters, 10% of Latino renters and 21% of Native American renters reported they had been evicted or threatened with eviction in the past year. That compares to 9% of white and 4% of Asian families. “This is just a warning from this survey, that unless the government can provide some help for vulnerable populations, a year from now they are going to have more people who are homeless,” said Robert J. Blendon, co-director of the survey and an emeritus professor of Health Policy and political analysis at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Programs of emergency rental aid helped around 5 million American families during the early months of the pandemic, with 1.5 million fewer evictions compared to pre-pandemic levels. After 22 million Americans lost their jobs during the start of the pandemic, Congress provided $25 billion in emergency rental assistance in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CAR AR +3%ES Act) passed in March 2020. A year later, in the American Rescue Plan, it added another $21.55 billion of rental assistance.

The CARES Act also included a temporary federal eviction moratorium that expired in the summer of 2020. It was later extended by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and then by Congress, and then again by the CDC. Finally, on August 3, 2021, after a surge in Covid-19 cases due to the Delta variant, the CDC extended the moratorium yet again. Later that month, the Supreme Court ruled against it.

Meanwhile, the emergency rental funds Congress appropriated have either been used up or are being returned to the federal government unspent. For example, last Thursday, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves announced his state would halt the federally-funded Rental Assistance for Mississippians Program by Aug. 15, meaning as much as $130 million for the program would be returned to the federal government.

California, having used up its federal money, ended its Covid-19 rental assistance program on March 31, 2022. It sent more than $4 billion to 344,000 households –but around 5,400 tenants and landlords have received emails asking to return money received in Covid-19 rent relief.

The housing component of the CPI increased 5.6% in the 12 months ended in June, but that includes costs to both homeowners and renters. In many places renters have seen far greater increases. According to housing data collected by Redfin RDFN +14.3%, average asking rents in June were up 14% compared to June 2021. In some sunbelt cities like Miami, rent has increased nearly 40%.

The recent spike in rent prices leaves low-income and minority groups in particularly precarious situations. A May report by the Federal Reserve Board showed that as of last fall, about half of renters with income between $25,000 and $49,999 were already “cost burdened”—meaning they were spending more than 30% of their income on rent. In the Fed survey, 44% of Black households and 37% of Hispanic households reported they were renters, compared with just 21% of white households.

“Unless some sort of emergency help is provided, a substantial number of minority populations are going to be evicted over the next year,” Blendon warns.

MORE FROM FORBESMortgage Applications Rise In Potential Housing Market Respite-Could Home Buying Become More Affordable Soon?

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

I’m a summer intern reporting for Forbes Money and Markets. I graduated from Boston University with a degree in Journalism

Source: New Survey Finds Inflation, Housing Costs And Eviction Threats Hitting Minorities Hardest

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Housing Market Enters Into Recession Here’s What To Expect Next

The housing cycle—which began its upward climb in 2011—has officially turned over. Simply put: We’ve moved into a housing recession.

On Tuesday, we learned that homebuilders broke ground on 982,000 single-family homes in June. That’s down 19% since February, and down 16% from the same month in 2021. While it’s hardly a “blow out,” it’s clear builders are cutting back. Historically speaking, that’s exactly what happens when a housing cycle turns over: As existing home inventory—which builders compete against—begins to spike, homebuilders start to cut back.

“Peak euphoria is behind us. We are giving back some of the euphoria [home] pricing that was rolling over every housing market,” says Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Existing home inventory will continue to rise, and homebuilding will continue to slow. At least that’s the view at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which does consulting work for both builders and investors. As it does, the ongoing housing recession (i.e. a contracting housing market) could push home prices lower in bubbly regional housing markets.

Indeed, many bubbly markets, Palacios says, are barreling toward price cuts in both 2023 and 2024. That includes markets like Phoenix, Nashville, West Palm Beach, Las Vegas, and Austin. In Boise, Palacios says, home prices could go negative on a year-over-year basis as soon as December. “Builders are already [deciding] to not pour slabs in certain markets. Which is the technical trigger for a start for a home. In certain markets it will feel like [a housing bust],” Palacios says.

Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a “housing correction.” It’s easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they’d owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they’d get a $2,839 payment.

While this housing recession has hit markets coast to coast, it’s hardly even. It’s delivering a particularly hard blow to housing markets in the Mountain West, West Coast, and Southwest. Just look at the shift in inventory levels: Over the past six months, housing inventory has spiked 247% in Denver compared to just 18% in Pittsburgh. Not too far behind Denver are Austin (220%); Colorado Springs (195%); Stockton, Calif. (175%); and Boise (161%).

What’s going on? These Western housing markets also happen to be among the most “overvalued” markets in the country. As the pandemic housing boom raged over the past two years, many of those markets—which were more constrained supply-wise—saw staggering home price appreciation. In Boise, home prices jumped 53% over the past two years. That took home prices there well beyond what economic fundamentals in the market would historically support. In fact, Moody’s Analytics deems it the most “overvalued” market in the country.

Over the coming year, Moody’s Analytics expects significantly “overvalued” housing markets like Boise and Austin to see home prices fall 5% to 10%. Nationally, Moody’s Analytics expects year-over-year home price growth to be at 0%. However, if a recession hits, Moody’s Analytics predicts significantly “overvalued” housing markets could see home prices drop by 15% to 20% while national home prices would fall by around 5%.

There’s another reason bubbly markets like Austin and Phoenix are contracting faster: investors. Investors poured into the U.S. housing market over the past two years. There were small players like Airbnb hosts and mom-and-pop landlords. Home flippers returned. There were also institutional types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Zillow. Their favorite locales? Hot housing markets throughout the Mountain West, Southwest, and Southeast.

However, as housing markets in those boomtowns begin to contract, investors are the first ones who run for the exits.

“Investors sometimes move in a herd. If Phoenix real estate isn’t the cool investment anymore in 2022, it could have a big and quick impact on home sales. If a lot of investors decide to sell…yikes,” John Wake, an independent real estate analyst based in Phoenix, told Fortune.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve flipped from quantitative easing (i.e. buying bonds) to quantitative tightening (i.e. selling bonds). Immediately, financial markets pushed up both the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates. That’s exactly what the Fed wanted: If mortgage rates rose, it would cause the pandemic housing boom—which helped fuel higher inflation—to fizzle out.

“I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in June.

According to Palacios, that Fed housing “reset” actually means “falling home prices.” While the Fed didn’t directly say it, Palacios says many in the industry believe that’s exactly what’s coming next.

That ongoing housing contraction coupled with a determined Fed, Palacios says, is the perfect recipe for a recession. Historically speaking, Fed-induced recessions begin in rate-sensitive sectors like housing. It usually goes something like this: Spiking mortgage rates quickly translate into fewer home sales. Then inventory rises sharply and homebuilders scale back. Next, demand for both commodities and durable goods falls. Of course, a housing recession also brings with it layoffs.

“The lesson learned in reading [Paul] Volcker’s piece, that’s where [the Fed] messed up [in the 1970s]. If you have this red-light, green-light mentality around inflation, then you’re going to allow the psychology of inflation to get out in front of you…If you listen to the Fed over the last month or so, that’s what they’re so freaked out about,” Palacios says.

Source: Housing market enters into recession—here’s what to expect next | Fortune

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Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Price Targets As ‘Concerned’ Analysts Warn Of Earnings Slowdown

A handful of Wall Street’s biggest firms are slashing their S&P 500 forecasts for the year, predicting lower stock market returns thanks to a difficult quarterly earnings season ahead as companies wrestle with surging inflation and rising interest rates.

With the stock market down roughly 20% so far this year amid fears of a looming recession, there are “lots of reasons to be concerned” about upcoming corporate earnings—with an incoming “flurry of downward revisions,” Bank of America warned in a recent note.

Though quarterly earnings season has just started, Wall Street analysts are slashing forecasts—with seven out of 11 S&P 500 sectors facing reduced earnings estimates, according to FactSet data. UBS on Monday slashed its earnings forecasts due to slowing economic growth and rising costs, with the firm also reducing its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,150—down from a previous estimate of 4,850.

Evercore ISI also cut its year-end S&P 500 target the same day, to 4,200 from 4,300, as analysts sounded the alarm on corporate margins and earnings being “under pressure as prospective recession scenarios develop.”One of Wall Street’s biggest bears (who has also warned of further downward earnings revisions) is Morgan Stanley chief strategist Mike Wilson who is maintaining a year-end S&P 500 target of just 3,900, while also predicting the index could fall as low as 3,000 if a recession hits.

Even some of Wall Street’s most optimistic strategists are slashing their S&P forecasts somewhat, including Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, who reduced his estimate to 4,800 from 5,330 amid “palpable risks of recession.”

Despite the gloomier forecasts recently, most Wall Street firms still predict a market rebound by the end of 2022, with the majority of price targets implying modest upside from the S&P 500’s current level of around 3,850. UBS and Evercore ISI’s most recent forecasts for the benchmark index both imply roughly 8% upside from current prices, while Oppenheimer’s price target suggests the market will rally nearly 25%. Even Morgan Stanley’s bearish outlook of 3,900 would mean stocks post a slight gain by the end of the year..

Even as recession fears remain front and center, not all Wall Street firms are forecasting an economic downturn. Analysts at Credit Suisse, for instance, also slashed their S&P 500 price target (to 4,300 from 4,900) but argued that the economy’s current slowdown is not recessionary. “Recessions are most accurately characterized by a meltdown in employment accompanied by an inability of consumers and businesses to meet their financial obligations,” Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub said in a note on Tuesday.

“While we are currently experiencing a meaningful slowdown in economic growth (from extremely high levels), neither of the above conditions are present today.” UBS strategist Keith Parker similarly sees slowing growth “but no recession,” with modest gains for the stock market ahead as he predicts high inflation will eventually subside.

Investors remain “nervous” about the upcoming inflation report on Wednesday, with experts predicting that consumer prices for June will surge higher than the 8.6% recorded in May.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Price Targets As ‘Concerned’ Analysts Warn Of Earnings Slowdown

Critics:

The S&P 500 Index (US500) has reacted to the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s ultra-hawkish stance by shedding over 20% in the first six months of 2022. 

As Fed chair Jerome Powell puts his foot on the pedal and accelerates quantitative tightening, investors now fear that decreasing money supply will push the US economy into a recession. Analysts remain divided on the likelihood of a recession as they await economic data, which remains key in anticipating the severity of rate hikes in the second half of the year.

S&P Global summed up the current market sentiment in its third quarter US economic outlook report: “We expect that the Fed raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet will be enough to eventually begin to tame inflation and help restore real wage strength and purchasing power. The question is whether it will push the US into recession as well.”

After hitting its lowest level since December 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded by over 6% in the fourth week of June, breaking a three-week losing streak in the process as short squeezes caught bears off guard. Jefferies called the current market sentiment “extreme” in a note dated 27 June, having seen net S&P 500 futures turn to net short, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) S&P 500 speculative net positions data for week ended 24 June.

“Thoroughly depressed sentiment, an extreme in short positions and rising cash levels are creating a vicious short squeeze,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. Despite seeing a recent rally in prices, the S&P 500 posted losses of close to 9% in June. As of 6 July 2022, the US benchmark index has lost close to 20% year-to-date (YTD).
In comparison, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped nearly 30% in the same period, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has shed about 15%. Based on the 5 July close of 3,831.4, the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 3866.9.  After dropping to near oversold zones on 16 June, the index’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to a near-neutral zone of 56 points, as of 6 July.

The Jefferies report said that “investors are now holding high levels of cash after one of the worst drawdowns in modern history”. The report showed that the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings was “just above” its long-term average.  “The multiple correction has been driven by long rates and not necessarily earnings revisions,” added Jefferies. As of 6 July 2022, the S&P 500 index was about 20% away from its all-time high of 4,818, which it reached on 3 January 2022.

By Mensholong Lepcha

Related contents:

S&P 500 Loses Over 1% As Investors Brace For Shaky Earnings Season, Looming Inflation Report

Stocks Fall After U.S. Economy Adds Back 372,000 Jobs In June

Federal Reserve Prepares More Big Rate Hikes Amid Risk That High Inflation Could ‘Become Entrenched’

Stocks Close Out Worst First Half Of A Year Since 1970

Wall Street Chooses an Odd Time to Be Upbeat About Growth Stocks 

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Dividend-Payers Still Shine Brightly As Stocks Stage Bounce-Back Rally

After seven straight down weeks for the S&P 500 Index and eight weeks of declines by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, stocks staged a big comeback from lows last Tuesday to finish the week with robust gains across the board. Sentiment gauges from the AAII survey to Investor’s Intelligence’s roundup of investment newsletter editor outlook had been flashing multi-decade highs in pessimism. Technically, put-call ratios had also spiked to levels associated with widespread panic. but now they are on the decline and helping to thrust stocks higher as pessimism recedes from unsustainable peaks.

The most important piece of economic news came out on Friday after the rally was well underway when the Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose at a 4.9% annual rate in April, which was a deceleration from the 5.2% pace in March. The report provided hope that the Federal Reserve would not need to be as aggressive as planned in hiking rates in the coming months. Next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for May will be another critical piece of data for handicapping the Fed’s moves.

By the end of the week, both the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index had both gained 6.6%. It would not be unreasonable to see this rally take the S&P 500 to it’s declining 50-day moving average, but there is a lot to prove for the bulls to make this burst of buying anything more than a rally within a larger downtrend.

The biggest gains last week came from the sector that has been the most beaten down this year: Consumer staples jumped higher by 9.5%. A 4.3% increase in crude oil prices helped drive the energy sector higher by 8.3%. Growth stocks outperformed value, and domestic equities performed better than international stocks.

Equity Income Universe: Last week, the top performing equity income funds that we track were the WisdomTree MidCap Dividend (DON DON +6.6%) and FlexShares Quality Dividend (QDF QDF +6.3%).

Dividend growth funds have been big underperformers this year, but the style shined last week with T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX +6.2%), WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth (DGRW DGRW +6.2%) and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VIG VIG +6.2%) all gaining more than 6%.

Also jumping more than 6% were the year-to-date total return leader, Alerian MLP (AMLP AMLP +6.2%) master limited partnership ETF, and the VanEck BDC Income (BIZD BIZD +6.2%) business development company ETF.

FDI Portfolio Action: Last week’s Forbes Dividend Investor portfolio of 22 stocks gained an average of 4.87%, with only two stocks failing to post positive returns.

Our top performer was master limited partnership Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP +8.9%). Also higher by more than 8% for the week were Luxembourg-based steel maker Ternium TX SA (TX +8.7%), chemicals maker LyondellBasell Industries LYB NV (LYB +8.5%), and International Business Machines (IBM +8.4%).

Capturing Call Premium On The Bounce

A medium-term bearish environment with at least a temporary burst of bullishness is one in which selling covered calls makes sense. Last Monday, we sold covered calls on Tyson Foods TSN (TSN +6.8%) and Kraft Heinz (KHC -0.3%). Both companies had ex-dividend dates last week.

Selling the same TSN $87.50 July 15 calls would now earn you $5.30, based on Friday’s closing price for Tyson of $91.04. With Kraft Heinz, the $39 July 1 calls we sold for $1.30 last Monday now trade for only $0.65-$0.70. Going out to the July 15 expiration and selling slightly in-the-money KHC $37.50 calls earns premium of $1.65-$1.70.

John Dobosz

I am the deputy editor of investing content for Forbes Media. I’m responsible for money and investing coverage on Forbes.com and in Forbes magazine.

Source: Dividend-Payers Still Shine Brightly As Stocks Stage Bounce-Back Rally

Highest Dividend-Paying Stocks in the S&P 500

Part of the reason we are seeing a “risk-off” environment on Wall Street in 2022 is because – for the first time in a long time – you can get a decent payday in traditional fixed-income investments thanks to a rising interest rate environment. Consider that 10-year Treasury bonds pay almost 2.9% right now – more than double the yield of last summer – while the S&P 500 averages a dividend yield of just 1.4% right now. Many income investors aren’t willing to settle for the risk of stocks when they can instead get significantly higher yield in bond markets. However, the following S&P 500 components offer a way to tap into outsized yield that may make them worth a look – with a minimum yield of 4.7% and payouts as high as 8.6% at current pricing.

By now, everyone knows how bad smoking is for your health. But as with sugary soft drinks or fatty fast food, just because something is unhealthy doesn’t mean consumers will stop buying it. And as we enter a period of volatility for the stock market thanks to price inflation, many investors are learning that smokers are incredibly reliable customers. That makes $160 billion tobacco icon Philip Morris a slam dunk thanks to leading brands such as Marlboro, the best-selling cigarette in the world, along with its other popular products. PM dividends have roughly doubled from 64 cents quarterly back in 2011 to $1.25 as of the beginning of this year, adding up to one of the best yields in the S&P 500 index.

Office real estate operator Vornado has a portfolio concentrated in the nation’s key metropolitan markets, including prime properties in New York City, Chicago and San Francisco. Vornado is also the leading firm when it comes to sustainable commercial properties, with over 23 million square feet of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, or LEED, certified buildings. Structured as a REIT, or real estate investment trust, VNO must deliver 90% of its taxable income back to shareholders each year – meaning a mandate for consistent and generous dividends for shareholders.

Another REIT, Simon differs from Vornado in that it is one of the largest mall owners in America. Its locations are focused on shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations instead of commercial real estate high-rises. COVID-19 was naturally quite tough on Simon; however, the recovering economy and the decline of social distancing restrictions has allowed SPG to get back on track. Shares have more than doubled from this time two years ago, and Simon just gave dividend investors a lot more to like with a big boost of almost 27% in its payout this year.

Old-school tech giant IBM isn’t often included in the same conversations as dynamic and younger firms like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) or Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL). However, “Big Blue” still has a lot to offer. Its deep enterprise technology relationships in software, consulting and IT infrastructure make the company tremendously profitable. Though the company forecast earnings per share north of $10.50 next fiscal year, dividends currently only add up to $6.56 annually. That means the generous dividends aren’t just sustainable but ripe for future increases down the road, even if earnings don’t grow at the outsized rates you’ll find at more ambitious Silicon Valley firms.

Big Oil companies have gotten a lot of attention this year, but integrated energy giants that have risen along with crude oil are not as generous with their dividends as smaller and more focused players like Oneok. OKE is a play on the “midstream” portion of the energy business alone, which involves transportation and storage and is not exposed to the risks of commodity price volatility. Oneok helps move natural gas around the U.S. and charges fees for that service, then passes a portion of that cash on to shareholders. Income investors will take comfort in this stable model, which supports strong cash flows regardless of the price of a barrel of oil in 2023 and beyond.

KMI is another energy infrastructure company operating across North America, with a network of natural gas and crude oil pipelines, as well as storage and processing facilities. All told, the stock owns roughly 83,000 miles of pipelines and almost 150 terminals and is valued at nearly $45 billion. With a scale like that, alongside a midstream focus that insulates it from the ups and downs in oil and gas prices, it should be no surprise that KMI is one of the most reliable income plays in the S&P 500 right now.

You may see AT&T stock in some screening tools with a higher yield, but keep in mind that is based on previous payouts before a recent spinoff of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) that reduced both the market value of parent AT&T along with its dividend potential. However, a new dividend run-rate of about 28 cents per share quarterly annualizes to a yield that is more than four times the typical S&P 500 component. And furthermore, the spinoff helps management focus on the core business of this long-standing telecom leader. Shares have rallied strongly since March as Wall Street has looked ahead to life after the split, and with a big-time payout there’s reason to think this run could continue in 2022.

The $100 billion tobacco icon Altria is behind some of the biggest brands in North America, including its flagship Marlboro cigarettes, Black & Mild cigars and smokeless tobacco products including Copenhagen and Skoal. Yes, the health risks of these tobacco products are real. But that doesn’t stop millions of customers from buying Altria products despite this. And with the company increasingly looking beyond this core revenue stream to cannabis-related goods and vaping products, there’s a good chance this “sin stock” will see consistent profits and generous dividends for the foreseeable future regardless of whatever morality you assign to its business model.

Lumen is a telecommunications company offering voice and data connections, along with related services including cloud solutions and cybersecurity add-ons. CenturyLink rebranded itself Lumen Technologies a few years ago, in the wake of a series of big-time acquisitions including the purchase of Level 3 Communications for about $25 billion, but despite that big price tag the current LUMN stock valuation is only about $12 billion or so. There are challenges for this second-tier telecom, including its large debt load from those previous deals. However, income investors who don’t mind the risk may be interested in the big-time yield of this top S&P dividend stock as a hedge against potentially lackluster share performance.

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