Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

Existing home sales fell for the seventh straight month in August as rising interest rates continued to sideline potential home buyers, and prices are finally starting to fall from record highs as experts project that the next few months could help ease the housing sector’s long-standing affordability crisis.

Existing home sales ticked down 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August, down from 6 million one year ago after declines across the U.S., according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.

In a statement, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called the housing sector “most sensitive to” the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and said the softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates, which peaked at 6% last week and have driven up the cost of monthly payments on new mortgages by more than 55%, an average of hundreds of dollars each month.

Amid the falling demand, the median existing home price has tumbled from a record high of $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August, down for a second straight month to the lowest level since March after breaking a five-month streak of gains.

The 7.7% yearly uptick in August home prices was the slowest year-over-year increase since June 2020, and NAR projects the median existing home price could fall more than 5% to $380,000 by the end of this year.

Others are eyeing steeper losses: In a Wednesday note, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said he expects a “sustained decline” in the sector through next spring, with prices falling as much as 20% from their peak by the middle of next year and in time helping rent inflation, which climbed 7% year over year last month, come down next year.

“Sales lag mortgage applications, which continue to fall and point to further significant declines,” Shepherdson said, predicting sales are on course to drop by another 10% or so within the next two months and adding that “even that might not be the low,” depending on what happens to mortgage rates over the next few weeks.

“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Yun says. “Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”

On Wednesday, real estate brokerage Redfin reported that the ten regions where housing is cooling the fastest are almost all either costly West Coast markets, or places that drew scores of relocating home buyers during the pandemic and became significantly less affordable. They include San Jose, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Denver.

“Housing, in short, is in recession, and everything connected to housing either is in recession now or soon will be, but the rest of the economy is not in recession because a regular housing downturn is not enough to crash the 90% of [gross domestic product] that is not housing,” says Shepherdson.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Housing Market Recession: Home Prices Fall As Rates Reach 6%—Here’s How Much Further They Could Drop

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Fall has arrived and if you think your home needs a little upgrading after the summer, you’re probably right. But while most people associate fall decor with pumpkin spice, the color brown, tacky statement pillows, or home fragrances that smell like food, a fall refresh doesn’t have to mean any of this. We’re not quite ready for the holidays, so there is plenty of time to focus on spaces such as bedrooms, kitchens, and bathrooms by adding fresh bedding, chic accessories and luxurious home fragrances. From new launches to old favorites, here’s everything your home needs right now.

Still working from home? Say farewell to ordinary office chairs. Why not upgrade your comfort and style at the same time with a chic office chair from Elizabeth Sutton Collection? After all, you need to sit somewhere. With several styles available and a choice of gold or silver casters, and a white or black frame, these add a true pop of fun to any workspace.

Trying to manifest more this fall? It’s easy when you’re burning a Jill & Ally The Elements Crystal Candle. The brand is owned by everyone’s favorite New York Housewife Jill Zarin. Choose from blue agate (water), red agate (fire), green fluorite (earth), or clear quartz (air). Whether you use this candle as part of a manifestation ritual or just as decor, it’s a great way to add color or change the vibe of a room instantly. When the candle is finished burning, keep the crystal.

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth, this cool yet stylish portrait is the perfect way to pay tribute to Her Majesty in a living room, bedroom, or even dining room. Available in two sizes, it has been selling like hot crumpets. If you’re the only queen in your home, Cheery Designs has a great selection of unique pieces that might be more suitable.

Got too much sand in your sheets this summer? Treat yourself to something new. Boll and Branch recently launched a super luxurious Reserve Sheet Set. Made from the longest staple 100 percent organic cotton available, it’s impossible to go wrong with these sheets. Get ready for the silk-like feel to help lull you to sleep.

Those with more modern tastes will appreciate The Citizenry’s Stone Washed Linen Sheet Set. Available in a variety of colors and styles, including White, Olive, and Gingham, these sheets are a great way to warm up a modern bedroom. Don’t forget a linen bathrobe to match.

Launching on September 21st, Weezie Shower Curtains are the ideal bathroom accessory in a traditional to contemporary style bathroom. They complement the brand’s signature monogrammed towels instantly elevating the space to new levels of sophistication. Choose from two sizes and blue or grey scalloped edges.

However, if it is your kitchen that needs a little something extra, the L’Avant Collective Marble Dish Soap Kitchen Counter Tray will automatically boost your sink space. Made from the finest white Banswara marble and featuring brass accent details, it’s a chic way to display all of your favorite L’Avant Collective products.

Jenni Kayne’s cookware collaboration with Staub couldn’t possibly be any more stylish if the designer tried. Made in France, the White Truffle hue is the epitome of magnifique. Choose from an Oval Gratin or a Round Cocotte dish in a choice of two sizes. Each one has an exclusive nickel steel knob. It’s the perfect marriage of understated and jaw-dropping.

This topaz tumbler from curated online marketplace Berner and Co is a sleek way to serve everything from sparkling water to cool cocktails at your Fall soiree (or just to make any meal feel a bit more festive). Take your tablescape to brand new heights with these fabulous drinking vessels.

Speaking of tablescapes, there’s no easier way to create one than with The Bouqs new fall flower collection. Whether you prefer white arrangements, something with crimsons and oranges, or perhaps plants instead of flowers, there is something for every aesthetic. Better yet, with a subscription, you can send a monthly arrangement to yourself or to someone else and change it up each month.

But if you want to buy an arrangement and have it last for up to a year, it’s impossible to go wrong with Venus Et Fleur. The new stone collection is a welcome upgrade from the brand’s signature packaging. While the marble vessels are undeniably luxe, the sandstone vases are a great complement to a minimalist room. Choose from a variety of roses and other arrangements.

Forget books of matches and disposable plastic lighters, Seth Rogen has figured out a way for matches to go upscale with the Houseplant Pebble Match Strike. It looks like two stones, but open up this modern objéct to find a stash of matches. Keep it on a bar cart, side table or to decorate a bookshelf.

But sometimes fires aren’t always welcome, which is why it’s important for every home to have a fire extinguisher within reach. Fortunately, Weston Table makes decorative and functional ones. Choose from a variety of styles from constellations to whale and dog designs. This also makes a smart housewarming gift. Ten percent of sales are donated to the National Parks Foundation.

Fable recently launched a gorgeous collection of dinnerware perfect for any fall table. Cool and modern, the green color is a simple way to add a rustic hue to your table, whether you’re having a dinner party or just want to make things look nicer every day.

But those with more traditional tastes will absolutely fawn over Dondolo’s tabletop collaboration with dress designer Sue Sartor. Choose from Peony White or Peony Pale Blue Dinner Plates and Salad Plates. Each item is handcrafted and unique. Don’t forget to add the matching placemats and napkins. What a dreamy way to bring a touch of the south to any table.

Neon Lace’s Drink Dresses serve the same purpose as wine charms without looking hideous. Available in linen or lace, these decorative accessories make everything from wine to coupe glasses look all dressed up for the party.

Why shouldn’t your fridge have a designer touch? These cute Kate Space food containers are the perfect way to store leftover food. The Floral Fields pattern has a lively vintage vibe with a bamboo top that reads “Anything is possible.” Far nicer to eat from on the go than a standard glass food container, it makes any leftover meal taste just a little bit better.

But if your pantry shelves or refrigerator are in desperate need of a makeover, Home+Sort’s line of organizers with mDesign will check every box. From airtight jars perfect for rice to lovely lattice baskets made for holding snacks or boxes of pasta, you will wonder how you ever lived without this indispensable product line.

If you like to display olive oil in the kitchen or on the table, why not choose a delicious one with a stylish bottle such as Branche Olive Oil? This farm-to-bottle extra virgin olive oil is made with olives from the south of Spain. With clean, modern packaging and a wood stopper, design is key here. No 1 has a bolder flavor and features a green bottle while No 2 has a milder flavor and has a white bottle.

Looking for an environmentally friendly way to clean up? Arbour Every Day Spray is the perfect way to do it. This fragrance-free spray works hard to clean up grease, grime, and everyday dirt quickly. Best of all, it is totally safe, non-toxic, and antimicrobial.

If you’re trying to cut down on plastic, live a more eco-friendly lifestyle, or simply dislike those cumbersome bottles of detergent or messy powders— you will love Ecos Plastic-Free Dishwasher Detergent Sheets. Just put a sheet in the soap compartment (you need to fold it a few times) and turn it on your desired setting. Your dishes will come out sparkling clean.

Traditional devotees will love the Coley Porter Side Table. It’s so versatile that it can work as a bedside table, a desk for smaller spaces, or even as a petite bar in a living room or dining room. Available through the brand’s quick ship program, it can be customized with a selection of fabrics and shipped in just ten days.

Why just grab some ice from the refrigerator when you can display it in a beautiful ice bucket from Katie Kime? The ultimate bar cart accessory, this bucket is available in lucite, gold and silver as well as more than 37 patterns and colors. Don’t forget to add a monogram. This also makes a very thoughtful gift, especially for someone who frequently entertains.

Make this lucite dish from ArtSugar the true star of your coffee table or nightstand. Perfect for jewelry, tiny candies or just to be decorative, it’s a great accessory for any surface that needs a touch of fun. ​​

Looking for some extra inspiration for your renovations this fall? Interior designer Anne Hepfer’s book Mood has all the inspiration you need. They say not to judge a book by its cover, but this book’s bold royal blue cover is showstopping. Just wait until you see all the beautiful projects featured inside the pages.

Want your home to smell like heaven all the time? Inspired by the scent of exotic white flowers, the Kai Reed Diffuser gets pretty close. With a modern square bottle and brown reeds, it’s a truly decorative accent that also makes a very thoughtful gift. Better yet, it’s free of parabens, sulfates, phthalates, and phosphates. Not into reed diffusers? Candles and room spray are also available in the brand’s signature as well as Rose scents.

But if you prefer to diffuse an essential oil, opt for the Aroma Om Stone Diffuser in stone. Clean and minimalist looking, it features a matte finish and ceramic cover. It mists for up to three hours and shuts off automatically. It can also light up and be used as a nightlight.

34 boulevard Saint Germain is the newest fragrance from famed perfumer Diptyque. The chic candle is packaged in an opaline glass vessel and features notes of black current leave, moss, and florals. It has a spicy woodsy scent that’s undeniably sophisticated. Make any room feel perfectly on brand this fall.

Pets are great, but the odors they create leave much to be desired, especially on carpets and upholstery. Fortunately, Zoop is amazing at getting rid of pet odors and stains. Best of all, it has a fresh scent (not a chemical scent) and each bottle lasts for months. Stock up before it gets sold out again.

Are your knives feeling a little dull? Upgrade this season with a set of highly functional knives that just happen to be sleekly designed. Material knives are made from Japanese stainless steel and high carbon. This set includes a bread knife, paring knife, and chef’s knife. The sage handles simply stun.

There’s nothing that feels like a fresh, new tea towel. Magic Linen Ruffle Trim Linen Tea Towels are just so pretty and classic. Whether you’re drying off plates every day or a platter post-dinner party, these tea towels are a must. Match any kitchen with twelve different colors and prints from neutrals to shades of blue and stripes.

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Latest fed rate increase expected to further cool Phoenix real estate azfamily.com, Arizona

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These Are The 10 Major Housing Markets That Just Saw The Biggest Declines In Home Equity

As home prices soared in recent years, homeowners enjoyed record levels of tappable home equity, which is the amount of money a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20% equity stake. But that’s all changing as home prices begin to fall, with July seeing the largest decline in home prices since 2011, according to real estate data and analytics company Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor. (See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.)

Indeed, while tappable equity hit another record high in the second quarter of the year, its growth appears to have peaked. “While mortgage-holders’ tappable equity had grown 25% from last year to hit another record high in Q2, we noted that equity actually peaked in May and tracked the pullback that began in June before escalating in July,” says Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data & Analytics. “Tappable equity is now down 5% in the last two months, setting up Q3 to likely see the first quarterly decline in tappable equity since 2019.”

In some markets, this drop in tappable home equity is especially acute, the Black Knight data revealed. Five of the most equity-rich West Coast markets saw tappable equity decline by 10% to 20% from April to July. Here’s how large the declines in tappable equity were in the 10 most equity rich markets:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • Los Angeles, -10%
  • Washington DC, -4%
  • Chicago, 6%
  • Dallas , 6%
  • New York, 8%
  • Miami, 8%

Meanwhile, among the 50 most equity rich markets, here’s what happened with tappable home equity:

  • San Jose, -20%
  • Seattle, -18%
  • Oxnard, Calif. -14%
  • San Francisco, -14%
  • San Diego, -14%
  • Denver, -12%
  • Sacramento, -12%
  • Santa Cruz, -11%
  • Riverside, Calif., -11%
  • Los Angeles, -10%

One big reason why tappable equity is down is, of course, that home prices are down. But it’s also likely that rising interest rates are to blame for how much equity is being withdrawn, as rising rates change how homeowners tap their equity. Homeowners had previously taken advantage of lower rates to take out HELOCs and home equity lending was up nearly 30% quarter over quarter, the largest volume in almost 12 years.

What to consider if you’re thinking about taking out a HELOC

HELOCs tend to be a far more affordable way to borrow money than either credit cards or personal loans, particuarly for homeowners with significant equity in their homes. And they can be a smart option for borrowers looking to consolidate high-interest debt or fund home improvement projects. But it’s important to get your finances in order, your credit score as high as possible and to shop around for rates. See the lowest rates home equity rates you may qualify for here.

It’s also important to understand how HELOCs work, too. They are composed of a two-part structure, which is usually a 10-year draw period and a 20-year repayment period, which together equal a 30-year term. During the draw period, borrowers can withdraw as much or as little money as they like. But once the repayment period begins, money can no longer be withdrawn and the borrower begins to pay back the principal in addition to interest.

Because HELOCs are based on the amount of equity someone has in their home, the amount of money a borrower qualifies for will vary. Remember that HELOCS tend to have variable rates, which might start out low but could increase if rates rise. And because you’re using your home as collateral to take out a loan like this, you risk of losing your home if you’re unable to make your scheduled payments.

By : Alisa Wolfson

Source: These are the 10 major housing markets that just saw the biggest declines in home equity – MarketWatch

Existing Home Sales data showed a drop of 5.9% from June to July and a 20.2% drop from the same period one year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. The median price of a house rose 10.8% from one year prior to a price of $403,800, but it’s still down $10,000 from the previous month’s high, according to the National Association of Realtors.

These drops occurred despite the inventory of unsold houses rising to 1.31 million by the end of July.

“The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”

The rise in mortgage rates has helped to rapidly cool what had been a red-hot housing market, hitting a record high in median home prices. The Federal Reserve boosted the rate in an effort to contain rampant inflation.

The six-month decline marks perhaps the fastest drop off since 2005, according to Seeking Alpha.

The average seasonally adjusted rate of home sales over the past decade hovered around 5.35 million, but the current level is at around 4.81 million, down from 6.50 million in half a year. Only the first year of the pandemic shows a more severe decline in home sales.

The previous non-pandemic rate to hit a similar cliff dive occurred in 2005 after the housing bubble peaked. The following decline occurred over nine months from 2006 into 2007 and rolled into the housing crisis of 2008. And the Conference Board posted an annual rate of change in its Leading Economic Index of 0%. Seeking Alpha noted that should the rate enter negative territory, it would be the 13th time since 1960, and 66% of those previous instances preceded a recession.

Related contents:

‘The market has begun to correct itself’: House hunters say they’re ready to buy in the next… Realtor.com

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America’s Failure To Build Is Driving Home Prices Ever Higher

Some progressive groups oppose rezoning New York's wealthy Soho area to allow more housing

Another month, another explosive rise in home prices.  May’s median annual housing price rose 23.6%, a new monthly record.   Buyers are still buying, helped by low interest and mortgage rates.  But since housing construction hasn’t kept pace with demand and economic growth, it will take more housing production to reduce long-term pressure on prices.

The buying pressure in housing markets is setting records.  Although home sales fell slightly in May compared to April, houses aren’t sitting very long on the market.  According to the National Association of Realtors, total housing inventory is down 20.6% from a year ago.  Properties only last on the market for an average of 17 days, and 89% of sales in May “were on the market for less than a month.”

Given this high demand, we’d expect supply to respond.  Ronnie Walker at Goldman Sachs notes housing starts are rising, hitting their highest levels since 2006.  But it isn’t cooling the market off.  But Walker says despite these higher starts, “red-hot demand has brought the supply of homes available for sale down to the lowest level since the 1970s.”

Walker expects a “persistent supply-demand imbalance in the years ahead.”  New construction will come online, and more sellers eventually will enter the market, but his model foresees “home prices grow(ing) at double digit rates both this year and next.”

Tight future markets are confirmed by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS).  In their 2021 report, these experts say “the supply of existing homes for sale has never been tighter,” and is at its lowest level since 1982.

So where are the houses?  What happened to supply and demand?  JCHS notes several reasons for underproduction, but the primary blame goes to restrictive local policies such as single-family zoning, minimum lot sizes, parking requirements, etc.  A 2018 survey of over 2700 communities found “93 percent imposed minimum lot sizes” with 67 percent requiring lots of at least one acre in size and sometimes more, many in suburban towns.

What about big cities?  Despite perceptions that there’s a lot of development in many cities, not much housing has been built in some.  Between 2010 and 2018, jobs in New York City increased by 22% “while the housing stock only increased four percent.”  Jobs in San Francisco and San Mateo counties rose by over 30% between 2010 and 2019, while new housing permits only rose by 7%.

There are strong political biases in these cities against more construction, but other liberal places are re-examining their housing policies, especially single-family zoning.  A New York Times 2019 analysis confirmed that many cities’ land area is dominated by single-family zoning —70% in Minneapolis, 75% in Los Angeles, 79% in Chicago, 81% in Seattle, and 94% in San Jose.  Combined with excessive parking requirements, zoning policy effectively takes land out of production while pushing its price sky-high and preventing multifamily options.

Cities’ anti-development policy means new housing is pushed further out in the metropolitan area, adding to suburban sprawl, longer commute times, and environmental damage.  Ironically, some progressive environmental groups have allied with anti-development forces, with the net result of fostering suburban sprawl.

In New York City, the left Sunrise Movement has joined with many other groups to oppose “upzoning” for higher density and more development in Manhattan’s Soho neighborhood, one of the wealthiest in the nation.  In contrast, Berkeley California, one of the most liberal cities in the nation, has voted to end single family zoning, persuaded by the argument that such policies result in racially segregated neighborhoods and lack of affordable housing for people of color.

But it isn’t just liberal cities that face this problem.  Even though red states like North Dakota, Utah, and Texas lead the nation in home building, a recent study found that only four of America’s 25 largest metropolitan areas “built enough homes to match local job growth.”  And much of that growth was in outlying suburbs, adding to sprawl and pollution.

Urban economist Ed Glaeser locates a good deal of the problem in the rising power of local citizen groups, especially existing homeowners.  Their housing investments often rise in value with scarcity, and they usually like the existing neighborhoods where they reside and don’t want new residents.

This creates an “insider/outsider” problem that limits housing. As Glaeser notes, current homeowners don’t “internalize the interests of those who live elsewhere and would want to come to the city…their political actions are more likely to exclude than to embrace.”  These anti-housing groups often are labelled “NIMBYs”, for “Not In My Back Yard.”

In response, so-called “YIMBYs” (Yes In My Back Yard) are pushing for policies such as relaxed zoning, allowing multi-family housing (at least duplexes to quadplexes) on single family lots, and allowing denser housing near mass transit stops (“TOD”, for “Transit Oriented Development.”).  They are having some success, but anti-development forces are deeply entrenched and politically powerful in many places around the country.

But would more development create not just housing, but add to affordable housing?  What about the impact on low-income and non-white families, who could face rising rents or displacement from gentrification while still not being able to buy a house?  In my next blog, we’ll look at the tangled racial history of housing development and home ownership. Unless renters and lower-income people can be mobilized to support development, NIMBY opposition to more housing will be hard to overcome.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn.

I’m an economist at the New School’s Schwartz Center (https://www.economicpolicyresearch.org), currently writing a book for Columbia University Press on cities and inequality.  I have extensive public sector experience studying cities and states.  I’ve served as Executive Director of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, Assistant Secretary of Labor for Policy, Deputy Commissioner for Policy and Research at New York State’s Department of Economic Development, and New York City Deputy Comptroller for Policy and Management.  I also worked as Director of Impact Assessment at the Ford Foundation.

Source: America’s Failure To Build Is Driving Home Prices Ever Higher

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Critics:

The United States housing bubble was a real estate bubble affecting over half of the U.S. states. It was the impetus for the subprime mortgage crisis. Housing prices peaked in early 2006, started to decline in 2006 and 2007, and reached new lows in 2012. On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported its largest price drop in its history. The credit crisis resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble is an important cause of the Great Recession in the United States.

Increased foreclosure rates in 2006–2007 among U.S. homeowners led to a crisis in August 2008 for the subprime, Alt-A, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), mortgage, credit, hedge fund, and foreign bank markets. In October 2007, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury called the bursting housing bubble “the most significant risk to our economy”.

Any collapse of the U.S. housing bubble has a direct impact not only on home valuations, but mortgage markets, home builders, real estate, home supply retail outlets, Wall Street hedge funds held by large institutional investors, and foreign banks, increasing the risk of a nationwide recession. Concerns about the impact of the collapsing housing and credit markets on the larger U.S. economy caused President George W. Bush and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke to announce a limited bailout of the U.S. housing market for homeowners who were unable to pay their mortgage debts.

In 2008 alone, the United States government allocated over $900 billion to special loans and rescues related to the U.S. housing bubble. This was shared between the public sector and the private sector. Because of the large market share of Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) (both of which are government-sponsored enterprises) as well as the Federal Housing Administration, they received a substantial share of government support, even though their mortgages were more conservatively underwritten and actually performed better than those of the private sector.

See also

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