IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures

The IMF, a grouping made up of 190 member states, promotes international financial stability and monetary cooperation. It also acts as a lender of last resort for countries in financial crisis.

In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the group’s economists say the most important policy priority is to vaccinate sufficient numbers of people in every country to prevent dangerous mutations of the virus. He stressed the importance of meeting major economies’ pledges to provide vaccines and financial support for international vaccination efforts before new versions derail. “Policy choices have become more difficult … with limited scope,” IMF economists said in the report.

The IMF in its July report cut its global growth forecast for 2021 from 6% to 5.9%, a result of a reduction in its projection for advanced economies from 5.6% to 5.2%. The shortage mostly reflects problems with the global supply chain that causes a mismatch between supply and demand.

For emerging markets and developing economies, the outlook improved. Growth in these economies is pegged at 6.4% for 2021, higher than the 6.3% estimate in July. The strong performance of some commodity-exporting countries accelerated amid rising energy prices.

The group maintained its view that the global growth rate would be 4.9% in 2022.

In key economics, the growth outlook for the US was lowered by 0.1 percentage point to 6% this year, while the forecast for China was also cut by 0.1 percentage point to 8%. Several other major economies saw their outlook cut, including Germany, whose economy is now projected to grow 3.1% this year, down 0.5 percent from its July forecast. Japan’s outlook was down 0.4 per cent to 2.4%.

While the IMF believes that inflation will return to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2022, it also warns that the negative effects of inflation could be exacerbated if the pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions become more damaging and prolonged. become permanent over time. This may result in earlier tightening of monetary policy by central banks, leading to recovery back.

The IMF says that supply constraints, combined with stimulus-based consumer appetite for goods, have caused a sharp rise in consumer prices in the US, Germany and many other countries.

Food-price hikes have placed a particularly severe burden on households in poor countries. The IMF’s Food and Beverage Price Index rose 11.1% between February and August, with meat and coffee prices rising 30% and 29%, respectively.

The IMF now expects consumer-price inflation in advanced economies to reach 2.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022, up from 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in its July report. Inflationary pressures are even greater in emerging and developing economies, with consumer prices rising 5.5% this year and 4.9% the following year.

Gita Gopinath, economic advisor and research director at the IMF, wrote, “While monetary policy can generally see through a temporary increase in inflation, central banks should be prepared to act swiftly if the risks to rising inflation expectations are high. become more important in this unchanged recovery.” Report.

While rising commodity prices have fueled some emerging and developing economies, many of the world’s poorest countries have been left behind, as they struggle to gain access to the vaccines needed to open their economies. More than 95% of people in low-income countries have not been vaccinated, in contrast to immunization rates of about 60% in wealthy countries.

IMF economists urged major economies to provide adequate liquidity and debt relief for poor countries with limited policy resources. “The alarming divergence in economic prospects remains a major concern across the country,” said Ms. Gopinath.

By: Yuka Hayashi

Yuka Hayashi covers trade and international economy from The Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau. Previously, she wrote about financial regulation and elder protection. Before her move to Washington in 2015, she was a Journal correspondent in Japan covering regional security, economy and culture. She has also worked for Dow Jones Newswires and Reuters in New York and Tokyo. Follow her on Twitter @tokyowoods

Source: IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures – WSJ


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He Started as a Doorman at a Marriott. Now He Runs a $3 Billion Hotel Empire

When Alan Fuerstman, 62, picked up a part time job as a doorman at the Marriott in his hometown, he saw it as a way to make a few bucks before going on to college. Instead, it opened up an entirely new path: invigorating the sometimes staid and stuffy world of luxury resorts. Today, the management company he founded in 2002, Montage International, has a portfolio of hotels, resorts, and private residences worth almost $3 billion; last year company revenues exceeded $400 million. –As told to Sheila Marikar


My first job was as a part time doorman at a Marriott in Saddle Brook, New Jersey. I was a high school senior–I was hired to work Saturday and Sunday nifghts. A couple of weeks in, the weeknight guy resigned, and I was asked if I could pick up additional hours. I was playing competitive tennis then, but between that and school, I was still able to work four to five nights a week, plus weekends. I’d call a cab for guests and load luggage into cars, clean snow off windshields in the winter.


When I graduated, I was promoted to bellman. I took it really seriously, and I met a lot of fascinating people. Like a man by the name of Bob Small. He and his wife checked in one Saturday night, and he started peppering me with questions: “What’s it like in this area? What’s it like to work in this hotel?” A few weeks later, a co-worker says “Look alive. Here comes the new general manager.” It was Bob. He ended up becoming the CEO of Fairmont Hotels, and a mentor to me.


I went to Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania and majored in political science. I spent a semester in Washington, D.C., interning for a young, dynamic senator named Joe Biden. I thought I would go to law school. But the summer after I graduated, I took some time off, went out to California–and Bob said, “come visit me in the desert.” He was opening the Rancho Las Palmas resort in Rancho Mirage, California.


I had introduced Bob to my uncle, who’s a lawyer, and Bob said: “Come on. Do you really want to be a lawyer?” He offered me a full time job, and I took it.

I got a firsthand look at everything that goes into the opening of a hotel: what it takes to get your staff motivated, how to keep food and beverage running smoothly on a holiday weekend when the restaurants are packed. I went into Marriott’s management training program, was assigned to be the front desk manager of the Newport Beach Marriott, and then went on to manage that hotel’s housekeeping department. I was 22.


Later I was recruited to become the general manager of a resort and country club in Arizona, after which I got involved in resort development. In 1994, we acquired the Phoenician Resort in Scottsdale for $240 million. I went there as the managing director, and by 1998 it was worth close to $500 million–it was running more smoothly, the level of service was higher, and the guests were happier.


That was maybe the first time I thought, “Hey, maybe I could do my own thing. Maybe I can create a company of extraordinary value.


I went to a beach resort in the South–I won’t say which–and they required men to wear sports coats in the lobby in the evening. It struck me as odd. Old-fashioned, and way too formal–I didn’t want to put on a sports coat. I thought the next generation of luxury consumers would be looking for a more gracious and humble approach to service. Fewer rules, but still incredibly focused on craftsmanship, quality, and attention to detail. And that luxury could be best served by a smaller company. Some of the leading luxury operators had 50, 60 hotels in their portfolio, and were getting a bit large.


I raised the capital and launched my own company in 2002. A developer showed me a place in Laguna Beach, on the Southern California coast, that seemed like the ideal location for our first hotel, but I didn’t have a brand yet. The name I had come up with was Platinum Hotel Group, which was a placeholder. I went to my advertising agency; they gave me hundreds of names but nothing felt just right. I went to a publicity company, and said, “Whoever comes up with the right name gets $10,000.” But, again, nothing hit me quite right.


Laguna Beach started as an artist colony, so I thought I’d look at artistic words. By this point, we were going through the financial transaction; I was getting desperate. I went to an online art reference guide, started with the A’s, B’s, C’s … I got to the M’s and saw montage, described as an “artful collection or compilation.”


I said, “Wow, that’s exactly what I’m looking to do.” It sounded good off the tongue–and it wasn’t being used in the industry. I called up the lawyers and trademarked the name.

I’ve always felt that great hotels are centerpieces of communities, so I wanted the community of Laguna Beach to embrace what we were doing. Before opening, we invited all the residents for a champagne toast. Community pride in your hotel then spreads further and further, and ultimately gets to a point where you have a national or international reputation.


Luxury in the older sense was scripted: “Here’s what you say, and how you say it.” For us, it really hasn’t changed in terms of trying to make sure that every guest has a truly special experience, but that starts with stripping away formalities. When well-trained staff members can display their own personalities, they create deeper relationships with guests. It’s those relationships that drive the repeat nature of our business–which is critical to the long-term success of a hotel.


We now have eight hotels and resorts, with nine more slated to open by 2021. In 2017, we started Pendry, which specializes in what we call “new luxury.” Pendry hotels have more hip food and beverage spaces. They’re more design-forward. They’re cooler.

That’s probably because my son Michael is in charge of that brand.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misspelled Bob Smalls surname and misstated the number of Montage International hotels and resorts; there are eight and nine more are expected by 2021. Additionally, the photo caption mistakenly used the wrong name for the company. 


By: Sheila Marikar

Source: He Started as a Doorman at a Marriott. Now He Runs a $3 Billion Hotel Empire

Rock House from Grace Bay Resorts In The Turks & Caicos Launches New Homes – Carrie Coolidge


A new luxury residential resort is being developed on the Turks & Caicos. Rock House, created by Grace Bay Resorts, will be a Caribbean version of a Mediterranean retreat overlooking the ocean. Rock House which will break ground later this year, is now offering a select number of homes for purchase. The resort will officially open to guests in 2020. Located on a majestic 14-acre oceanfront site with 600 feet of frontage and peaks soaring up to 95 feet above sea level, Rock House is the first residential resort tucked into the rugged, untouched limestone cliffs of Providenciales’ north shore……..

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