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The Formula You Are Using To Determine How Much To Save For Retirement Is Broken

If you are trying to figure out how much money you need to save for retirement, there’s an easy rule of thumb that you can use: simply multiply your expected annual expenses in retirement by twenty-five.

For example, if you expect to spend $100,000 annually once you’re retired, you’ll want to have a $2.5 million portfolio saved up. If you’d like to play around with the numbers to estimate your own retirement needs, you can use this simple retirement calculator.

This retirement savings rule of thumb is based on the 1998 landmark study conducted by Carl Hubbard, Philip Cooley and Daniel Walz, in their seminal study known as the Trinity Study. They built on the 1994 work of William Bengen, who originally coined the ‘4% Rule’.

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The Trinity Study evaluated safe retirement withdrawal rates, and found that 4% was sufficient for the majority of retirees. A safe withdrawal rate simply refers to the amount of money that can be taken out of an account and allow you to reasonably expect the portfolio to not fail, or run out of money. In this case, the 4% withdrawal rate refers to the amount of money that will be withdrawn from the balance of the retirement portfolio in the first year of retirement. In subsequent years, the balance withdrawn will simply be an inflation adjusted number based on the total dollar amount withdrawn the year prior.

The Trinity Study has become so well-known, that it has been adopted by hopeful retirees from all walks of life, including those hoping to retire early. The FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is a lifestyle movement with the goal of allowing individuals to retire as early and quickly as possible.

However, one detail that the movement is getting wrong and completely missing, is the fact that the Trinity Study’s 4% rule of thumb was based on a 30 year retirement period. This time horizon was determined to be on the conservative end of retirements by the authors of the study. If you work until you’re 65, having a 30 year retirement seems pretty reasonable. I don’t think many would argue that living until the age of 95 is a short life by any means.

The problem arises due to the FIRE movement seeking a much longer retirement period. If you retire at 45 years old, you may need a portfolio that will survive another 45 to 50 years in order to avoid running out of money. In this case, making a judgement error could end up meaning re-entering the workforce at an advanced age. For this reason, relying on a 4% withdrawal rate is an extremely risky decision if you plan to retire early.

This begs the question of what a more appropriate withdrawal rate is if you plan to retire early. The answer is that it depends. In general, the study found that as the balance between stocks and bonds shifts towards equities, a portfolio is more likely to withstand the test of time. So inherently, your risk tolerance will need to be factored into the equation. If you are comfortable with 75%+ of your portfolio being in stocks (and stomaching the increased risk), you might be safe with a 3% withdrawal rate. If you prefer less volatile investments, a lower rate is more conservative.

This is bad news for a lot of you hoping to retire early.

For one, it would mean having to save an additional $833,000 if you hope to spend $100,000 annually like in the example above. Unless you are an exceptionally high earner, it’ll likely mean having to work for several additional years or having to continue to earn additional income even after retirement.

With the buzz surrounding the gig economy and the seemingly endless ‘side-hustle’ opportunities available, this seems like a surmountable hurdle. The deficit in retirement savings required also highlights the impact of having to save for retirement as efficiently as possible.

This means fully taking advantage of your 401(k), IRA, and other tax-advantaged accounts. It also means evaluating whether it makes sense to refinance your student loans or not. Avoiding credit card interest fees and other forms of high interest debt are a must. In addition, maximizing your earning potential will also help safeguard your nest egg from market turbulence and economic uncertainty.

Just as important, you’ll also want to avoid making costly investment mistakes. One that comes to mind is erroneously viewing your vehicle as a sound investment. Another pitfall is picking individual stocks in lieu of index funds or ETFs. To set yourself up for success, minimizing fees and diversifying your investments is the name of the game.

Does all of this mean that the 4% rule is futile and should be completely ignored? Absolutely not. The authors of the Trinity Study ran simulations to find what the safe withdrawal rate would be for varying time horizons. But at the end of the day, they were just that: simulations. Even if you only had an expected 15 year retirement and used a conservative withdrawal rate, there is always the chance that your portfolio could fail. The same is true in the opposite direction: there’s always the chance that a 4% withdrawal could be sufficient for a 50 year retirement.

The question you have to answer is whether you are comfortable taking that risk. I know I’m not.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here.

Camilo Maldonado is Co-Founder of The Finance Twins, a personal finance site showing you how to budgetinvestbanksave & refinance your student loans. He also runs Contacts Compare.

Source: The Formula You Are Using To Determine How Much To Save For Retirement Is Broken

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There are many financial gurus out there that tell you how much to save for retirement, but how did they come up with that number? Honestly they are all just using each others guesses, but as financial advisors we need to do better. While others guess that you should save 10, 12,15% for retirement we can actually figure out how much you should save…to the penny! The first thing we want to know is how much income are you looking for in retirement? Typically we say that you should aim to have 75% of your current income replaced for retirement. The reason is that social security and other savings may make up the difference. Today we will calculate how much a 30 year old couple should save for retirement given that they each have income of $50,ooo per year. We will adjust this to account for inflation and make some assumptions about their retirement age and life expectancy. After calculating this along with expected returns we can see that they need to save 11.9% of their income yearly to have 75% of their income in retirement. We love doing this for our clients and if you are considering a place for your retirement investments then we hope you will consider jazzWealth.com We’re an investing service that also helps you keep your dough straight. We’ll manage your retirement investments and, using NestEgg we can help you with every penny! —Ready to subscribe— https://www.youtube.com/jazzwealth?su… For more information visit: www.JazzWealth.com — Instagram @jazzWealth — Facebook https://www.facebook.com/JazzWealth/ — Twitter @jazzWealth Investment related questions 📧 Dustin@JazzWealth.com Business Affairs 📧Carolyn@JazzWealth.com

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What Is The Average Retirement Savings in 2019?

It costs over $1 million to retire at age 65. Are you expecting to be a millionaire in your mid-60s?

If you’re like the average American, the answer is absolutely not.

The Emptiness of the Average American Retirement Account

The first thing to know is that the average American has nothing saved for retirement, or so little it won’t help. By far the most common retirement account has nothing in it.

Download Now: To be a profitable investor you first need to know the rules. Get Jim Cramer’s 25 Rules for Investing Special Report

Sources differ, but the story remains the same. According to a 2018 study by Northwestern Mutual, 21% of Americans have no retirement savings and an additional 10% have less than $5,000 in savings. A third of Baby Boomers currently in, or approaching, retirement age have between nothing and $25,000 set aside.

The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) paints an even bleaker picture. Their data from 2013 reports that “nearly half of families have no retirement account savings at all.” For most age groups, the group found, “median account balances in 2013 were less than half their pre-recession peak and lower than at the start of the new millennium.”

The EPI further found these numbers even worse for millennials. Nearly six in 10 have no retirement savings whatsoever.

But financial experts advise that the average 65 year old have between $1 million and $1.5 million set aside for retirement.

What Is the Average Retirement Account?

For workers who have some savings, the amounts differ (appropriately) by generation. The older you are, the more you will have set aside. However there are two ways to present this data, and we’ll use both.

Workers With Savings

Following are the mean and median retirement accounts for people who have one. That is to say, this data only shows what a representative account looks like without factoring in figures for accounts that don’t exist. This data comes per the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances. (Numbers rounded to the nearest hundred.)

• Under age 35:

Average retirement account: $32,500

Median retirement account: $12,300

• Age 35 – 44:

Average retirement account: $100,000

Median retirement account: $37,000

• Age 45 – 55:

Average retirement account: $215,800

Median retirement account: $82,600

• Age 55 – 64:

Average retirement account: $374,000

Median retirement account: $120,000

• Age 65 – 74:

Average retirement account: $358,000

Median retirement account: $126,000

For households older than 65 years, retirement accounts begin to decline as these individuals leave the workforce and begin spending their savings.

Including Workers Without Savings

When accounting for people who have no retirement savings the picture looks considerably worse. Following are the median retirement accounts when including the figures for people with no retirement savings. The following do not include mean retirement accounts, as this would be statistically less informative than median data.

• Age 32 – 37: $480

• Age 38 – 43: $4,200

• Age 44 – 49: $6,200

• Age 50 – 55: $8,000

• Age 56 – 61: $17,000

How Much Should You Have Saved For Retirement?

So that’s how much people have saved for retirement, or more often don’t. Now for the more useful question: How much should you have saved for retirement?

The truth is that there’s no hard and fast rule. It varies widely by your age, standard of living and (perhaps most importantly) location. Someone who rents an apartment in San Francisco needs a whole heck of a lot more set aside than a homeowner in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The rule of thumb is to estimate by income. Decide the income you want to live on once you retire, then picture your life as a series of benchmarks set by age. At each age you want a multiple of this retirement income saved up. Your goal is to have 10 to 11 times your desired income in savings by retirement.

• By age 30: between half and the desired income in savings

• By age 35: between the desired amount and double the desired income in savings

• By age 40: between double and triple the desired income in savings

• By age 45: between triple and quadruple the desired income in savings

• By age 50: between five times and six times desired income in savings

• By age 55: between six times and seven times desired income in savings

• By age 60: between seven times and nine times desired income in savings

• By age 65: between eight times and 11 times desired income in savings

So, if you earn $50,000 per year, by age 40 you will want to have between $100,000 and $150,000 in retirement savings set aside. The formula grows later in life for two reasons. First, as your savings accumulate they will grow faster. Second, as you approach retirement it is often wise to accelerate your savings plan.

What You Should Do Next for Your Retirement Savings

Retirement is approaching a crisis. In the coming decades millions of Americans will get too old to continue working without the means to stop. Millennials, crippled by debt from graduation, will turn this crisis into a catastrophe in about 40 years. And Social Security, designed to prevent exactly this problem, covers less than half of an average retiree’s costs of living.

It’s beyond the scope of this article to discuss exactly how this happened, but if you’re one of the many people who have fallen behind on retirement savings, don’t panic. There’s plenty you can do. But… it might not necessarily be easy.

The key is to think about retirement savings like a debt. This is money you owe to yourself and it charges reverse interest. Every day you go without adding money to your retirement account is a day you lose investment income. That’s money that you’ll need someday and won’t have.

Next, take stock of where you are. How much will you want to live on in retirement and how much do you have saved today? Use our chart above. That will tell you how far behind you are compared to where you need to be. Are you a 40 year old with $25,000 in savings who will want to live on $50,000 per year in retirement? Then you’ve got $75,000 you need to make up for.

Now, begin catching up. Chip away at that debt every week and every month. Pay into your 401k and IRA the same way you would whittle down a credit card. By thinking about it this way, as a specific goal, you can take away some of the fear of saving for retirement and turn it into an achievable (if large) amount. It’s not just some big, black hole you can never fill. It’s a number, and numbers can go down.

It won’t necessarily be fun. You might have to cut back on luxuries or take on some extra work, but even if you start late in life you can catch up on your retirement.

Now’s the right time to start.

By:

Source: What Is The Average Retirement Savings in 2019?

Dimensional Vice President Marlena Lee, PhD, explains how her research on replacement rates can help you prepare for a better retirement outcome. See more here: https://us.dimensional.com/perspectiv…

60 Seconds: Yes, You Need a Will. Like Now. – TheStreet

Image result for the will testament

From Aretha Franklin to Prince, so many famous, wealthy people have died without having a will.

It’s nuts. Their heirs may have to spend an exorbitant amount of time fighting the courts – and each other – to determine who gets what.

Download Now: To be a profitable investor you first need to know the rules. Get Jim Cramer’s 25 Rules for Investing Special Report

You can’t take your assets with you. Get it? Everyone should have a will – and you don’t need to be famous or wealthy to need one.

Give me 60 seconds and I’ll tell you why.

Granted people often are uncomfortable talking about their mortality.  And rockstars Amy Winehouse and Kirk Cobain, who both died at 27, probably presumed they were way too young to even need one.  But they had millions at their death.

Not Just for the Rich and Famous

Regardless of your age, net worth or level of fame, you are doing your heirs a HUGE favor by taking care of everything now, says Robert Westley, CPA/PFS member of the American Institute of CPAs Personal Financial Specialist, PFS, Credential Committee.”

(Unless, of course, you enjoy watching your heirs fight over your stuff rather than resting in peace.)

So start making a list of everything you have — include investment accounts, artwork, even those vintage cars in the garage.

And if you have young kids, don’t forget to pick their guardians. You don’t want your chronically unemployed brother to end up with them.

Creating a will doesn’t have to be a complicated process. You just need a few key documents and you most likely can get what you need from sites like Quicken WillMaker or LegalZoom.

If you have substantial wealth, then you probably are going to need an estate plan, maybe even a trust, and an attorney to help carry out your wishes.

Beneficiaries Override Your Will

Big note here: A bunch of your assets are not even controlled by your will.  Anything with a beneficiary designation – like your 401(k), IRA or insurance policies – is dictated by those designations, says Westley.

They override your will. So if in your will you state that you want your kids to inherit your IRA but your ex-spouse’s name is still listed as the beneficiary because you forgot to update it, guess who’s coming in on a windfall?

So check all that now.

And drop the excuses. This is not just for old rich people.  We all know that you can get hit by a bus while you are walking on the street or even reading this.

You Need to Revisit

And finally this is not a one-and-done, says Westley.

“Many individuals assume that once they’ve completed their estate plan and will there is no need to revisit it. The reality is, estate documents are static, while an individual’s life is dynamic and ever-changing,” he says.

People die, get divorced, buy new stuff, sell old stuff.  So your will needs to be revisited, often.

So get on it, and for more tips, follow me @tracybyrnes.

Source: 60 Seconds: Yes, You Need a Will. Like Now. – TheStreet

How Does Sequence Of Returns Risk Impact Your Retirement?

For many investors, a long bull market like the one we’re in is leading to some frayed nerves.

When will there be a downturn? The “when” question is especially relevant to investors nearing or at retirement age. While it’s true that returns have historically evened out — for the 93-year period between 1926 to 2018, large cap stocks have gained a 10% compounded rate of return — what happens if your retirement happens to occur during a year the market suffers a loss over 20%?

After all, if this sort of downturn occurs in your twenties or thirties, it’s a setback, but time and earnings potential are on your side, explains Roger G. Ibbotson, Chairman and CIO at Zebra Capital Management and professor in the practice emeritus of finance at the Yale School of Management. If the same downturn occurs during retirement, would your portfolio be able to weather the downturn?

Implementing safeguards against this possibility can protect your portfolio from sequence of returns risk — the potential that years of bad returns early in your retirement could deplete your retirement savings for the future. Ibbotson advises that conservative withdrawals in early retirement, several streams of cash flow and a diverse portfolio including bonds and annuities can all be tools to help ensure your retirement savings won’t freefall even if the market does.

Scroll down for a guide to sequence of returns risk and how to protect your portfolio from a potential market downturn.

Consider De-risking Before Retirement, Even In A Bull Market

While some camps stay true to a buy-and-hold strategy, Ibbotson recommends de-risking your portfolio as you approach retirement, regardless of how the market is performing. According to Ibbotson, “twenty-percent proofing” your portfolio — or safeguarding your portfolio from historic losses in early retirement — can help ensure your retirement savings are able to survive a substantial market dip.

“When you’re young, you’re in what’s called an accumulation phase,” explains Ibbotson. You have high human capital (the value of future earnings, like income) but low financial capital (investments in stocks and bonds). Early on in your career, when you’re primarily dependent on human capital, you can afford to take more risk with your financial capital. But as you evolve toward the “pre-retirement phase,” when you might not be earning a steady income and are more reliant on the financial capital you’ve grown over time, it may be a good idea to de-risk your portfolio.

Rethink A Standard Annual Withdrawal

While a retirement plan based on a standard yearly withdrawal rate can give you a good ballpark of your returns and cash-flow expectations, this model doesn’t account for large market fluctuations at a key moment: early in retirement, when you begin taking withdrawals. Even if the market eventually evened out to an average that’s not far from your expected return, being dependent on those withdrawals through a bear market could hurt your savings for decades to come because so much of your portfolio would have been depleted by market losses in early retirement.

Of course, you may be required to take required minimum distributions (RMDs), and you may also depend on retirement withdrawals to fund your expenses. But following the popular 4% rule of thumb — plan on withdrawing 4% of your retirement savings each year — in early retirement could leave your money vulnerable during a bear market, Ibbotson argues. “Since you can’t predict when a downswing will occur, it’s best to be conservative during early retirement, when you don’t have the luxury of time and human capital potential to make up the difference,” he says.

Consider Alternate Retirement Income Streams To Ride Out A Market Downturn

In addition to de-risking your portfolio, it may be smart to consider alternate income streams that won’t make you overly dependent on portfolio withdrawals in early retirement, says Ibbotson. “There’s a longevity risk to consider as well, which means that you may need money to last for thirty plus years,” he says.

Some ways to mitigate longevity risk — and put yourself in a stronger position to ride out a potential bear market — include working into retirement to provide a source of cash flow (which may also eliminate the need to take out RMDs on your 401(k)), making sure you’re maximizing Social Security benefits or downshifting and earmarking that money as funds for your early retirement, giving your nest egg more time to grow. Depending on your circumstances, a HELOC or second mortgage taken in early retirement can also help safeguard your retirement savings, says Ibbotson. Even lowering your withdrawal rate slightly in the first years of retirement can protect your savings from a market downturn during those early years.

Consider “Laddering” Bonds And Annuities

While bonds may have lower rates of return than stocks, their low risk and guaranteed principal return can be one way to de-risk your portfolio. One strategy to consider is called a bond ladder, says Ibbotson. This is a set of bonds purchased specifically to mature in different years, so instead of investing in a single $100,000 bond, you might invest in ten $10,000 bonds. One might mature in one year, another in three, another in five and so on, diversifying cash flow and protecting against market dips.

The same is true for annuities. Annuities can be purchased over a period of years and purchased from an array of insurance companies, which can minimize the risks of market fluctuations or the underperformance of one insurer. Annuities can be purchased as a fixed, variable or hybrid product, with aspects of both fixed and variable annuities. One popular example of a hybrid annuity product is a fixed-indexed annuity (FIA). Fixed annuities guarantee both an interest rate — around 2.5 to 3.5% as of publication date — as well as the principal. Variable annuities are typically riskier, as neither the interest nor the principal is guaranteed. Meanwhile, a product such as an FIA guarantees a stated return on the investment along with an investment return based on market performance. As the annuity reaches the annuitization stage, this money can then be used as income.

Keep Plans Flexible

Strategy exists so you can change course if necessary. Having several options for how to weather a stock market slump can help ensure you won’t run out of savings. As with any retirement planning options, speaking with a financial advisor can help you navigate the best course of action for you, your money and your retirement goals.

This content was brought to you by Impact PartnersVoice. Certain opinions expressed herein are those of Professor Roger Ibbotson and/or others acting in an academic and/or research-related capacity and not as a representative or on behalf of Zebra Capital Management, LLC (“Zebra Capital”). Roger Ibbotson is Professor in the Practice Emeritus of Finance at the Yale School of Management and the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Zebra Capital.  

Annuities have limitations. They are long-term vehicles designed for retirement purposes. They are not intended to replace emergency funds, be used as income for day-to-day expenses or fund short-term savings goals. All guarantees and protections are subject to the claims-paying ability of the insurer. You should read the contract for complete details.

This material is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or roll over any asset, adopt a financial strategy or purchase an annuity policy. It does not take into account the specific objectives, tax and financial conditions or particular needs of any specific person. You should work with a financial professional to discuss your specific situation. 

The content herein includes the results of academic research conducted by Professor Ibbotson and others outside of the services provided by Zebra Capital and which may have been funded, in whole or in part, by parties unaffiliated with Zebra Capital. The results of that research should not be considered as having any relevant or material financial bearing on the services provided by Zebra Capital.

Zebra Capital is entitled to receive certain compensation in consideration for, among other things, the granting of certain license rights and/or sub-licensing rights of certain of its intellectual and other property rights to one or more third parties for the creation, sponsorship, compilation, maintenance and calculation, among other things, of one or more indices to which certain fixed indexed annuities make reference.

Revolutionizing retirement for baby boomers with relevant tips, tricks, and strategies for a new age in retirement preparation.

 

Source: How Does Sequence Of Returns Risk Impact Your Retire

ment?

Too Many Americans Will Never Be Able to Retire

Traditionally, Americans could look forward to a comfortable retirement. After four decades in an office or a factory, sometime in their 60s they would lay down their burdens and enjoy a final couple of decades with time to relax, spend time with family and friends, and reflect on their life. But since the financial crisis, older Americans have been increasingly staying in the workplace……

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-23/america-needs-more-young-workers-to-support-aging-population

The Fears And Anxieties Of Retirement

As I sit here drinking my morning coffee, I find myself wondering about the thoughts on the minds of my clients and other prospects that I’ve met over the years. The issues for many are the same: anxiety and fear of planning for retirement or being retired. When considering those fears and anxieties, 10 questions seem to surface most often……….

Source: The Fears And Anxieties Of Retirement

Think Again If You Plan To Work Longer – Teresa Ghilarducci

1

When 52% of older workers are pushed out of their jobs, working longer is not their choice. The stark truth is that a significant share of older workers  — age 55-64 — are not anywhere near being on track to afford retirement. The median retirement account balance for older workers is only $15,000. Even the highest income workers — those earning over $200,000 per year who are in the top ten percent of the income distribution — do not have enough money to retire and maintain their standard of living. Their median account balance is under a year’s salary at $200,000 and 15% of the highest earners have no retirement plan except Social Security…….

Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2018/10/08/think-again-if-you-plan-to-work-past-65/#8602bc95f97b

 

 

 

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