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Digital technology has changed our world. It has altered how we access news, entertainment and information, our work patterns, and our communication channels. How we buy and sell.
So, as digital advertising and media continue to grow, have their traditional forms become redundant?…Let’s talk…
Simon Cheng, Marketing Director, Menulog
“No, I don’t think digital has killed traditional advertising. They are not mutually exclusive concepts. Digital complements traditional, as each plays their own role. Traditional will always be important for mass reach objectives and brand building. While, digital is great for performance and driving incremental brand growth through more targeted reach.
“At Menulog, we are a technology business however we invest a lot in traditional channels – TV, outdoor and radio – because they are still some of the most effective avenues for capturing the attention of mass audiences. Equally, we also invest heavily in performance media, using search and social to convert demand. After all, there’s no point investing in creating demand if you are not then capturing it or driving engagement.
“As the world of media continues to become more fragmented, advertising and communication channels need to reflect how consumers want to consume content. Marketers shouldn’t over complicate things. It’s the right message, right place, right time. The channels that fit naturally against your objectives, are those to go with.
Andrew Cornale, Co-Founder and Technical Director, UnDigital
“Digital marketing is certainly more readily accessible than traditional advertising and I would argue that it has overtaken traditional marketing in many senses, but has digital killed traditional advertising? No.
“Traditional advertising still has its place. We see successful campaigns using traditional advertising all the time. However, I’d argue that its high price point and specialised skill set makes it less accessible to the everyday business. For many businesses, digital advertising is more affordable, scalable and targeted. Plus, it’s easier to map ROI against a digital campaign where sales can be mapped directly to it.
“To me, digital marketing is a smarter strategy because decisions are backed by data with less guesswork and, generally speaking, there are just more opportunities to find customers online. If one day, we do see the death of traditional advertising, I’d say digital marketing certainly had a hand in it, but it’s not necessarily holding the murder weapon.”
“There’s no doubt that marketing and advertising have changed dramatically in the last 10 years, alongside the advancements of technology and the internet.
“While traditional advertising relied on methods such as TV ads, billboards and print journalism, digital advertising has superseded these methods with algorithms that enable marketers to find and sell to their key audiences. Technology has opened the door to endless possibilities, when it comes to advertising, but with changes come challenges.
“Consumers are battling against a barrage of online noise, through their email inboxes, social media accounts and websites. No platform is left unturned, making creating genuine authenticity with your customers much harder.
“Interestingly enough, the feeling of digital numbness that has come alongside the pandemic, has led some customers back to traditional advertising. The pandemic has seen a rise in guerrilla advertising that harnesses both the digital and physical world, using billboards, posters or graffiti that can be scanned by a smartphone.
“As society adjusts to using their smartphones for COVID-19 check-ins or QR codes, modern marketing which amalgamates both old and new advertising methods, is being embraced. Traditional advertising isn’t dead, it’s had a system upgrade with the help of digital.”
Adam Boote, Director of Digital and Growth, Localsearch
“Changing consumer behaviours in a tech-savvy society have significantly impacted the way advertising is created and consumed. Millennials and Gen Zs are far more influenced by digital media – 49% of TikTok users purchase a product or service after seeing it on the app, and 60% of Millennials admit their purchasing decisions are influenced by what they see on Facebook.
“We’re now seeing a big wave of consumers, including small businesses, turn to digital after weighing up not only print, but broadcast advertising. Although free-to-air TV viewership is increasing with more people at home, its key objective is generating brand awareness – so you may or may not receive immediate action from viewers. Online, you can target audiences with far greater demographic accuracy, targeting the people most relevant to you and guiding them through to where you want them to go.
“For SMBs who don’t have thousands to spend on TV ads, nailing your SEO and digital presence is far more cost-effective.
“However you decide to integrate digital with traditional, when consumers do remember your business and need your product or service, you want them to be able to go online and find you. Fast and easy.”
Cary Lockwood, chief executive officer, Loyalty Now
“Traditional media and advertising still have parts to play in the cultural zeitgeist, but the real question is: are they as effective in engaging audiences as their digital counterparts?
“Traditional advertising operates by conveying a broad message to a broad audience. However, in today’s hyperlocalised economy, consumers want their individual voices heard by merchants who offer solutions tailored to their unique interests and behaviours.
“This growing customer expectation, coupled with a need for business transparency, is one of the reasons experts anticipate some digital advertising methods to become obsolete soon. This is particularly evident in the current phase-out of third-party cookies ahead of 2022.
“Instead of investing in broader advertising avenues, businesses must embrace targeted partnerships with platforms that boast highly engaged audiences, and that also let merchants leverage hyperpersonalisation to better engage their consumers. This will lead to more committed return customers whose buying power outweighs surface-level interactions with disengaged buyers.”
Simon McDonald, Regional Vice President Optimizely
“Digital platforms have revolutionised advertising. Traditional mediums lock advertising into one-way communication, whereas digital platforms provide two-way interactive capabilities. Businesses can now customise advertising to personalise any brand experience and utilise real-time metrics to monitor their campaign’s success.
“Digital advertising is constantly evolving, and so is consumer behaviour. Organisations need to embed a culture of test and learn across all of their digital strategies, allowing businesses to quickly respond and evolve with the industry and consumer trends. While traditional advertising is still around, it is always best as part of a larger digital multichannel marketing campaign that can evolve and respond to consumer behaviour.”
Nicole Schulz, Brand Reputation Practice Lead, Sefiani Communications Group
“In a time of increasing misinformation and disinformation online, traditional media has played a vital role in delivering timely, factual and credible information to Australians. The Digital News Report 2021 found that in Australia, trust in news has risen to 43%. As Australians turned to public broadcasters for critical news over the past 18 months, trust in traditional news brands has remained high. In contrast, 64% of Australians are concerned about false and misleading information online. Roy Morgan research found that TV is regarded as the most trusted source of news, nominated by nearly 7 million Australians.
“However, the same research also found that the internet is now Australia’s main source of news. There is no doubt that Australian audiences at large are continuing to shift away from traditional towards digital platforms for news but the credibility and trust attached to traditional new publishers remains paramount. To thrive in the future, traditional media will need to continue to evolve its multi-channel offering to suit and serve diverse and segmented audiences.”
Nakamura, Leonard I. (FRB); Samuels, Jon (BEA); Soloveichik, Rachel H. (BEA) (24 October 2017). “Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts”(PDF). SSRN.com. Social Science Research Network publishing working paper 17-37 of the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. p. 37 (Fig. 3). Archived(PDF) from the original on 20 March 2021.
“NSFNet Acceptable Use Policy”. Information Policies: A Compilation of Position Statements, Principles, Statutes, and Other Pertinent Statements. Coalition for Networked Information. Archived from the original on 24 August 2013. Retrieved 24 June 2013.
“Junk Mail”. Electronic Billboards on the Digital Superhighway: A Report of the Working Group on Internet Advertising. The Coalition for Networked Information. 28 September 1994. Archived from the original on 15 June 2013. Retrieved 24 June 2013.
Briggs, Rex; Hollis, Nigel (April 1997). Advertising on the Web: Is there Response Before Clickthrough?. Journal of Advertising Research. pp. 33–45.
Jansen, B.J.; Mullen, T. (2008). “Sponsored search: an overview of the concept, history, and technology”. International Journal of Electronic Business. 6 (2): 114–131. CiteSeerX10.1.1.147.3734. doi:10.1504/ijeb.2008.018068.
Over the past decade, as private equity firms like Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle Group have grown into a gargantuan size and raised buyout funds nearing or eclipsing $20 billion, one critique of their cash gusher was that it would inevitably drive fund returns lower. Now, as the U.S. economy emerges from the Coronavirus pandemic and markets soar to new record highs, recent earning results from America’s big buyout firms reveal a trend of rising returns even as funds surged in size.
Fueled by piping-hot financial markets, returns from the flagship private equity funds of Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle are on the rise. Mega funds from these firms that recently ended their investment period are all running ahead of their prior vintages and raise the prospect that PE firms can achieve net investment return rates nearing or exceeding 20%.
Carlyle, which reported first quarter earnings on Thursday morning, is the newest firm to exhibit rising performance. Its $13 billion North American buyout fund, Carlyle Partners VI, which was launched in 2014 and ended its investment period in 2018, is now being marked at a 21% gross investment rate of return and a net return of 16%, or a 2.2-times multiple on invested capital.
The fund has realized $8.8 billion of investments, like insurance brokerage PIB Group and consultancy PA Consulting, and sits on a portfolio marked at nearly $20 billion. The returns are two-to-three percentage points ahead of Carlyle Partners V, the flagship buyout fund it raised just before the financial crisis. That fund is on track to earn a net IRR of of 14%, or a multiple of 2.1-times its invested capital.
Rising fund profitability, even at scale, is helping to fuel Carlyle’s overall profitability. Net accrued performance fees from Carlyle VI ended the quarter at nearly $1.4 billion and Carlyle sits on a record $3.2 billion in such performance fees that will likely be fully realized in 2021. The firm’s once-lagging stock has recently risen to new record highs.
Blackstone’s flagship $18 billion private equity fund, Blackstone Capital Partners VII, was closed in May 2016 and ended its investment period in February 2020, just before the Covid-19 economic meltdown. After taking public or exiting investments like Bumble, Paysafe and Refinitiv, this fund is now marked at a 18% net investment rate of return, five percentage points better than its prior fund, which raised in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.
In the past two quarters, the fund has been the single biggest driver of Blackstone’s record profitability, generating over $1.6 billion in combined accrued performance fees. In the first quarter, the fund was responsible for 82-cents in quarterly per-share profits, filings show. Overall, Blackstone sits on a record $5.2 billion in net accrued performance fees.
At KKR, it’s a similar story. The firm’s $8.8 billion Americas XI fund, which was raised in 2012 and ended its investment period in 2017, is generating net IRRs of 18.5%, or a 2.2-times multiple on invested capital, according to the its annual 10-k filing from February. That sets up the fund to be KKR’s most profitable buyout fund since the 1990s.
KKR’s first quarter results, set to be released in early May, may show even bigger windfalls and higher returns. Its recent public offering of Applovin looks to be one of the greatest windfalls in the firm’s history, bolstering returns and profits for its even newer $13.5 billion Americas Fund XII. Asia could also be an area of big returns as its $9 billion Asian Fund III monetizes investments.
As returns rise, PE firms have seen their stocks soar to new record highs.
Once a laggard, Carlyle is up 36% year-to-date to a new record high above $42, according to Morningstar data. The firm, now led by chief executive Kewsong Lee, has returned an annual average of 23% over the past five-years.
KKR has done even better, rising 40% this year alone and 125% over the past 12-months. It’s five and ten-year total stock returns are now 33% and 13.5%, respectively.
The top performer in the industry is Blackstone Group, which recently eclipsed a $100 billion market value. Up 39% this year alone, Blackstone’s generated an average annualized total return of nearly 19% over the past decade, which is about five-percentage-points better annually than the S&P 500 Index.
Bottom Line: With public markets hitting new record highs, buyout firms are reporting LBO returns not seen since the 1990s. Their stocks, which once badly lagged the S&P 500, are beginning to beat the market.
I’m a staff writer and associate editor at Forbes, where I cover finance and investing. My beat includes hedge funds, private equity, fintech, mutual funds, mergers, and banks. I’m a graduate of Middlebury College and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, and I’ve worked at TheStreet and Businessweek. Before becoming a financial scribe, I was a member of the fateful 2008 analyst class at Lehman Brothers. Email thoughts and tips to agara@forbes.com. Follow me on Twitter at @antoinegara
The stock market crashed early in the Covid-19 pandemic onset. Then it recovered. For that, you can indirectly thank … Covid-19.
The dynamic might seem at least the foothills, if not the height, of irony. And possibly ridiculous. Virtually everyone knows that it’s a president that matters and drives the markets. You can see from the number who tried to credit Trump with how stocks did, or who have done the same with Obama.
But people are largely wrong. Presidents matter little to the stock market and the influence of one party or another is often the opposite of what one might think. Between 1933 to the present, the S&P 500 averaged 10.48% a year under Democratic presidents, according to results of an in-house analysis that John Hancock Investment Management shared with me in August. For Republicans, it was 6.34%.
That, too, is partly happenstance, with a big 18.2% average annual return under Bill Clinton that owed to a lack of overseas war or recession, as Robert Johnson, a professor of finance at Creighton University in Nebraska, told me during the summer. Providence dealt him a winning hand.
Presidents can try to rally others, but they don’t even control the budget; Congress does. Even decisions there can have less long-lasting impact than one might think. Even the tax cut passed in late 2017—which I’d credit to Paul Ryan and other GOP congressional officials, as Trump largely just signed the deal— had a short-lived effect.
All it did was provide extra profit that largely went into buying back shares to temporarily boost prices. But when the extra purchases stop, so does the market rise.
The most important driver of stock prices, according to Johnson, is monetary policy. What the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and others do. That includes dropping interest rates and purchasing bonds, which are both attempts to stimulate the economy.
That they achieve that stated purpose is far from clear. For more than a decade, the banks tried to pull the world’s economies out of the funk started by the Great Recession of 2008 on, with some even pushing negative interest rates.
The tactics didn’t seem to work that well in getting people (most of whom had been hit hard and weren’t rescued along with large corporations) to increase their spending or for companies to turn up production. Why make more when you don’t have unmet demand?
What central bank policies have done is to fuel equity prices. Low interest rates mean low yields in bonds, money markets, and other fixed income investments. Investors seeking good return turn more to stocks. While there are a lot of shares, that number is finite. More money flooding into equities triggers a basic supply-and-demand dynamic, driving share prices upwards.
As economic conditions post collapse were almost back to where they were—an average because the gains, so much of which came from stocks, went to the top 10%—the pandemic arrived. It was an unusual circumstance that started as a demand crash, starting with shutdowns in one of China’s largest industrial centers that served 94% of the Fortune 500.
That had a negative impact on manufacturing and sales everywhere else in the world. Companies slowed or closed operations, laying people off, and then the virus washed over Europe and the Americas, cities and eventually states restricted activity to create a fire break to stop transmission, and the U.S. had the biggest GDP plunge ever: 32.9%.
As economies crashed, the Federal Reserve and other banks went into overdrive. There were also trillions in fiscal stimulus from governments. But these same actions again pumped more money out and pushed up equities, particularly as U.S. interest rates bottomed out around zero.
The seemingly high growth in the third quarter was only partial recovery as businesses reopened, leaving the U.S. GDP about 10 percentage points short of where it had been early in 2020.
Normally there can be a disconnect between the economy and the stock market. But as most people in the country try to find their footing, stocks soared aloft.
For both the weak economy and the strong markets, you can thank Covid-19. Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website.
My credits include Fortune, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times Magazine, Zenger News, NBC News, CBS Moneywatch, Technology Review, The Fiscal Times, and Inc. Get my free newsletter at https://eriksherman.substack.com.
American stockmarkets have enjoyed a record-breaking streak, even though the country’s economy faces the deepest recession in living memory. Why is stockmarket performance so seemingly cut off from current events, and what does this tell us about how the economy works? Read more here: https://econ.st/2OUT5rH Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/31E02VY Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.st/3ghRh7W
CMOs and CFOs often speak completely different languages. This can create a lack of understanding and appreciation for the role and impact of marketing on the business. Mastercard CMO Raja Rajamannar calls this the “existential crisis of the CMO.” He says it’s essential for marketers to think and talk more like business managers than communications experts…..
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