Reasons To Include International Investments In Your Portfolio

The United States currently represents 60% of the global equity market.¹ This means investors with an extreme home bias are ignoring 40% of the equity universe. In truth, doing so over the last 14.5 years would have worked out for you, but markets are cyclical, so it’s unlikely this lasts forever. There’s also a long history of throne-swapping between U.S. and international stocks (see chart). Particularly in today’s challenging market environment, investors should think twice before giving ex-U.S. assets the cold shoulder.

The U.S. stock market doesn’t always dominate

The United States doesn’t always dominate the global equity market! When U.S. stocks are facing headwinds, international stocks may rise to the occasion. Sustained periods of outperformance by one region have been fairly common historically.

These bouts can be significant. For example, consider the ‘lost decade’ for U.S. stocks that started in the early 2000s. Between 2000 – 2009, the cumulative total return for the S&P 500 was negative 9.1% vs positive 30.7% for the MSCI All Country World Index ex U.S.

International stocks could outperform if U.S. stocks are struggling

The graphic above breaks down performance of the S&P 500 vs the MSCI EAFE. During periods when domestic stocks produced below-average returns, international equities did better, by over 2% on average. Further, during all rolling 10-year periods since 1971, the top performer was almost a coin toss: the U.S. only did better 56% of the time.

Since trying to time regime changes is very difficult in real time without the benefit of hindsight, there are reasons to consider allocating both U.S. and ex-U.S. equities to an asset allocation.

Ex-U.S. equity may be able to help reduce risk in a portfolio

Having international exposure in your portfolio in the early 2000s and throughout the Global Financial Crisis would have been a key ingredient in reducing overall risk and maintaining some level of investment return.

By way of example, consider this hypothetical 60/40 portfolio of stocks to bonds. The U.S. only portfolio includes the S&P 500 and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index while the U.S. & international portfolio allocates 20% of the equity exposure to the MSCI All-Country World Index ex-U.S.

Other reasons to consider international assets in your portfolio

  • Different sector concentrations. The U.S. is fairly tech heavy. The S&P 500 is currently about 27% technology companies. Compare that to Europe at 7%. Exposure to other sectors like financials and commodities in emerging markets can add overall diversification.
  • Currency risk and return. At a high level, the relative strength of foreign currencies to the dollar has the potential to help or hurt returns. Asset managers can engage in different strategies to hedge or boost returns around foreign exchange rates, but the takeaway is that currency can be another layer of diversification.
  • Valuations. Valuations outside of the United States have been much cheaper to the long-run averages for quite some time. Especially relative to the U.S., international stocks look much more attractive on a valuation standpoint. Despite the selloff in 2022, the S&P 500 is only now just in line with the 20-year average P/E ratio.

The takeaway

Adding ex-U.S. stocks to your portfolio may be able to help reduce risk over the long-term. But there are downsides to be aware of. Most notably, international assets tend to be more volatile. These swings can be to the upside or the downside. And just as the unique elements of investing overseas (like foreign exchange rates or sector exposure) can help investors at times, they can also hurt U.S. investors in other circumstances.Quintex3-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

As with anything in investing, consider your personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and circumstances. Diversification isn’t a magic bullet, and if you do add international exposure to your portfolio, be sure to appropriately size the position to meet your needs.

I’m a Certified Financial Planner professional specializing in stock options and sudden wealth.

Source: Reasons To Include International Investments In Your Portfolio

International markets are generally divided into 2 categories:

  • Developed markets are located in countries that have established industries, widespread infrastructure, secure economies, and a relatively high standard of living.
    Examples of developed markets include the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Canada, and France.
  • Emerging markets are located in countries that have developing capital markets and less-stable economies. However, they’re considered to be in the process of transitioning into developed markets, and they may be experiencing rapid growth. Currently, emerging markets make up about 15% to 20% of international markets in total.
    Examples of emerging markets include India, China, Egypt, South Africa, Mexico, and Russia.

Not surprisingly, developed markets are similar to the United States when it comes to volatility levels and the range of potential returns. Emerging markets are more volatile than developed markets and have a wider range of potential outcomes. For that reason, we recommend that you don’t overweight your allocation to emerging markets.

How to choose an international investment

There are a few ways you can invest in foreign markets:

  • International funds invest only in foreign markets, excluding the United States.
  • Global or world funds provide exposure to both foreign and U.S. markets.
  • Regional funds invest primarily in a specific part of the world, like Europe or the Pacific region.
  • Developed markets funds focus on foreign countries with proven economies, like Japan, France, or the United Kingdom.
  • Emerging markets funds combine investments in countries that are considered to have “developing” economies, like India, Brazil, or China.

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Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession

As a growing number of investment banks and company chiefs warn that the likelihood of a recession is increasing, analysts at Morgan Stanley are telling clients that the stock market—despite reeling from a steep selloff in recent weeks—has plenty of room to fall before hitting levels consistent with recession-era lows, which would be especially bad for cyclical industries like travel and hospitality.

Despite major stock indexes plunging more than 20% below recent highs, markets are still only down by about 60% of the average drawdown compared with previous recessions (which denote two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), Morgan Stanley analysts told clients in a Tuesday note.

As the Federal Reserve works to combat decades-high inflation with interest rate hikes that will likely stunt economic growth, a recession “is no longer just a tail risk,” analysts led by Michael Wilson wrote, putting the odds of one over the next year at 35%, up from 20% in March.

They estimate the S&P 500 could plunge as much as 20% to 3,000 points, from current levels of 3,770, if the U.S. falls into recession, citing earnings that tend to fall an average of 14% during recessions—a marked turnaround from record profits and 25% growth last year.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives—or the risk of one is extinguished,” the analysts said, adding that market weakness will likely continue over the next three to six months in the face of “very stubborn” inflation readings.

With high prices deterring some consumer spending, Morgan Stanley says stocks tied to discretionary spending, like those in retail, hotels, restaurants and clothing, are at higher risk of a downturn, while those tied to the internet, payments and durable household goods (like appliances and computers) are less at risk.

The note comes the same day Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the U.S. economy will “more likely than not” face a recession in the near term, echoing concerns raised by several other top business leaders and financial institutions following last week’s steeper-than-expected hike in key interest rates, which tend to deter spending by making borrowing more expensive.

Morgan Stanley’s not alone in raising recession odds this week. In a note to clients Monday, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said the firm now sees “recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” given the Fed’s more aggressive rate hike, putting the odds of a recession over the next two years at 48%, up from 35% previously. The investment bank estimates tighter financial conditions could drag down GDP as much as 2 percentage points over the next year.

Restaurants are most at risk of a pullback in spending, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of some 2,000 consumers. Roughly 75% of respondents said they’ll cut back on dining out over the next six months, while 60% said they’d do so on deliveries and takeout from restaurants. Though driving much of the inflationary gains, essential items like gas and groceries should see more resilient spending, with roughly 40% of consumers saying they’d cut back on either.

Major stock indexes plunged into bear market territory last week ahead of the Fed’s largest interest rate hike in 28 years, and the gloomy sentiment has ushered in waves of layoffs among recently booming technology and real estate companies. “We don’t believe the Fed can stop the issues that are causing inflation on the supply side without absolutely wrecking the economy, but at this point, it looks like they are resigned to the fact that it must be done,” says Brett Ewing, chief market strategist of First Franklin Financial Services. Goldman Sachs has warned clients it expects another 75-basis-point hike in July.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Source: Stock Market Could Crash Another 20% If U.S. Plunges Into Recession—These Industries Are Most At Risk

The best hope for stocks right now is a recession that crushes inflation and allows the Fed to slow, stop or even reverse rate hikes.

Why it matters: Down 20.5% so far in 2022, it’s the ugliest year for the S&P since 1962. The drop vaporized $9 trillion in paper wealth, delivering a psychological shock to millions whose retirement is mostly in stocks.

Driving the news: Facing persistent inflation, the Fed delivered its largest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday.

  • The increase is the monetary-policy equivalent of stomping on the country’s economic brakes — sharply increasing the risk that growth contracts.
  • Despite the recent beating shares have taken, the Fed’s announcement was greeted with open arms by investors. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%. The Nasdaq rose 2.5%. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 — which is more closely tied to short-term ups and downs of the economy — rose less, at just 1.4%.

The big picture: A huge rate hike that raises the risk of recession may sound like a bad thing for stocks — but with inflation still rising, it isn’t.

  • Essentially, investors are saying they prefer a big, sharp Fed-induced economic shock now if it quickly gets inflation under control. In theory, that could allow lower rates to return after inflation is vanquished.
  • Low interest rates have been crucial to the performance of stocks over the last decade.

Context: While Americans have a habit of looking at the stock market as an economic indicator, the linkage between economic growth and stock market performance is surprisingly weak, and, some academics say, nonexistent. The most extreme example of this reality arose during the bleakest moments of the COVID-related recession.

  • In April 2020, the U.S. economy was essentially on life support. Unemployment that month was 14.7%. There were, quite literally, bread lines miles long.
  • That month the S&P 500 posted its best month in 33 years, rising nearly 13%.

What gives? Well, in late March 2020, the Federal Reserve had to cut interest rates to zero and restart money-printing programs do deal with the COVID crisis. (The Federal government also began dumping what would ultimately be trillions of dollars into the economy to keep people afloat.)

The intrigue: But don’t recessions hurt corporate earnings? Wouldn’t that make stocks fall?

  • Earnings are one ingredient in stock prices, and they can definitely fall during recessions. But recently, interest rates — essentially the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — have played a more important role in establishing stock prices than earnings.
  • That’s because those interest rates largely determine the valuation multiple — otherwise known as a price-to-earnings ratio — investors use to determine the price they’re willing to pay for those future earnings (effectively, the price of a stock).
  • TL;DR: Higher rates = lower valuations, and vice versa.
  • So, even if earnings are expected to fall, stock prices can still rise, if valuations rise enough. Those valuations are largely determined by interest rates — and those rates are largely determined by Fed decisions.

The Federal Reserve made an aggressive new move in its campaign to bring down inflation Wednesday, raising its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the steepest rate hike since 1994 — and indicated another similar move could be coming next month.

Driving the news: In addition to increasing their target for short-term interest rates to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75% Fed officials projected that their target rate will reach 3.4% late this year, far higher than the 1.9% they envisioned in March. Mortgages, car loans and credit card debt are all about to get more expensive.

Yields on U.S. government bonds — known as Treasuries — rocketed in recent days, as Friday’s inflation report convinced many that a combination of persistently high inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve interest hikes, is on the way. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to nearly 3.50% in recent days, a level not seen since 2011……

  Matt Phillips

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ProShares ETF Targets Bitcoin Selloff

BITI, which seeks to obtain exposure through bitcoin futures contracts, will track the opposite performance of the S&P CME Bitcoin Futures Index each day. The launch comes as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have struggled in sympathy with the broader stock market, which is contending with scorching-hot inflation.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is currently trading around $20,000 per coin on Monday, well off its 52-week high of $68,990.90 hit last year, after briefly falling to a 52-week low of $17,601.58 per coin over the weekend. “As recent times have shown, bitcoin can drop in value,” ProShares CEO Michael Sapir said in a statement. “BITI affords investors who believe that the price of bitcoin will drop with an opportunity to potentially profit or to hedge their cryptocurrency holdings.”

ProShares will also launch BITIX on Tuesday, a mutual fund with the same investment objective as BITI. “With the additions of BITI and BITIX, ProShares and ProFunds will be the only fund families in the U.S. offering funds that allow investors to express their view on the direction of bitcoin — no matter whether they believe the price will go up or down,” Sapir added.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
BITO PROSHARES TRUST BITCOIN STRATEGY ETF 12.95 +0.23 +1.81%

The launch of BITI and BITIX comes after ProShares launched BITO, the first U.S. bitcoin-linked ETF, in October 2021, which attracted more than $1 billion in assets from the public in just two days. The firm also launched the first bitcoin-linked mutual fund, BTCFX, in July 2021.  ProShares, which offers one of the largest lineups of ETFs, manages more than $50 billion in assets in partnership with its affiliates.

Eight months after establishing the first U.S. bitcoin futures ETF, ProShares plans to launch the first short bitcoin-linked ETF on Tuesday in the U.S., the provider of investment products announced Monday. The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy, which will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BITI, is designed to give investors a way to profit from declines in the price of the cryptocurrency. It will have an expense ratio of 0.95%.

Bitcoin fell to new a new 2022 low over the weekend of $17,601.58, according to Coin Metrics, after six months of declines amid the broader sell-off in risk assets. “As recent times have shown, bitcoin can drop in value,” ProShares CEO Michael Sapir said in a news release Monday. “BITI affords investors who believe that the price of bitcoin will drop with an opportunity to potentially profit or to hedge their cryptocurrency holdings. BITI enables investors to conveniently obtain short exposure to bitcoin through buying an ETF in a traditional brokerage account.”

BITI will be the first ETF of its kind in the U.S. Horizons ETFs has a short bitcoin ETF listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. ProShares said BITI is designed to deliver the opposite of the performance of the S&P CME Bitcoin Futures Index and that it seeks to obtain exposure through bitcoin futures contracts. How well-timed the launch is remains to be seen. Markets remain fraught with uncertainty as investors await next steps from the Federal Reserve and signs of peaking inflation, but many are still speculating about the crypto market being at or near a bottom.

On Monday, bitcoin sat about 70% from its all-time high, which it hit in early November just a couple weeks after ProShares launched the Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO). Bitcoin quickly reversed lower, and has been falling since then.

12:27
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07:28Roxe SPACs BlockchainCryptocurrencies

11:38 Mon, 20 Jun
09:38 Mon, 13 Jun
03:40 Tue, 14 Jun

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Crypto Prices Tumble Again After $300 Billion Sell-Off—How Low Can Bitcoin Go?

The price of bitcoin fell to a three-month low Saturday, continuing a slide that began Wednesday when the Federal Reserve sparked a broad sell-off by cautioning it may move more quickly than previously expected to reverse policy meant to bolster the economy during the pandemic, and experts forecast the latest crypto market drawback is likely to go on for weeks.

Bitcoin fell as much as 3% to below $41,000 by 1:45 p.m. ET, according to crypto data website CoinMarketCap, bringing its losses to more than 12% since the Fed warned it may move more aggressively to remove pandemic-era stimulus as it looks to combat high levels of inflation.

In a weekend email, analyst Yuya Hasegawa of cryptocurrency broker Bitbank cautioned he expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency could continue falling until the broader market, which has similarly struggled since the Fed’s Wednesday announcement, digests the likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates as soon as March.

Hasegawa said bitcoin could fall as low as $40,000 in the near term, but that the government’s consumer price index report due out next Wednesday could bring a rebound if it shows inflation spiked more than expected, stoking the inflationary fears that have lifted bitcoin to new highs as recently as November.

On Thursday, crypto billionaire Mike Novogratz, the CEO of financial services firm Galaxy Digital, told CNBC the selloff could push bitcoin down another 8% from current prices to as low as $38,000—a level unseen since early August.

“I’m not nervous in the medium term but we’re going to have a lot of volatility in the next few weeks,” the staunch bitcoin bull said told CNBC, before pointing to booming institutional adoption as a bullish indicator for the nascent space.

Novogratz wasn’t alone among billionaire crypto investors cheering bitcoin on during its latest sell-off: “So. much. money. patiently waiting to [buy the dip] in bitcoin,” Barry Silbert, the founder and CEO of crypto firm Digital Currency Group, wrote on Twitter Saturday afternoon.

Bitcoin was far from alone in falling Saturday afternoon. Over the past 24 hours, ether, binance coin and sol were down 5%, 6% and 3%, respectively—pushing losses to roughly 20% apiece over the last week.”Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a breach of the $40,000 level, and it could get bad for ether if it breaks the $3,000 level,” Oanda Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya wrote in a Friday email. Ether prices clocked in at about $3,034 on Saturday.  “The long-term outlook is still bullish for both the top two cryptocurrencies, but the short-term is looking ugly.”

Despite bitcoin’s bouts of intense volatility, Goldman Sachs co-head of global foreign exchange Zach Pandl wrote in a note to clients this week that the cryptocurrency could top $100,000 in the next five years. Pandl said he expects bitcoin’s share of the crypto market, currently about 41%, “will most likely rise over time as a byproduct of broader adoption of digital assets” and that the cryptocurrency will increasingly compete with gold as a hedge against inflation.

$1.9 trillion. That’s the value of all the world’s cryptocurrencies Saturday afternoon, down more than $300 billion, or 14%, since Wednesday and more than $1 trillion below an all-time high of $3 trillion in November. Over the last five years, bitcoin prices have skyrocketed about 4,300%.

Follow me on Twitter. Send me a secure tip.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com. And follow me on Twitter @Jon_Ponciano

Source: ‘Looking Ugly’: Crypto Prices Tumble Again After $300 Billion Sell-Off—How Low Can Bitcoin Go?

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Alibaba Stock Keeps Falling, Sending Jack Ma’s Net Worth Down $30 Billion In A Year

Shares of tech giant Alibaba continued to fall on Friday, adding to the stock’s massive selloff after the company said earlier this week that it expects weaker revenue growth amid China’s slowing economy and Beijing’s ongoing regulatory crackdown.

Key Facts

The tech and e-commerce giant reported disappointing quarterly earnings late on Wednesday and slashed its revenue forecasts for the year ahead.

Alibaba shares plunged over 11% on Thursday following the report—one of the stock’s largest single-day declines on record—and is down more than 2% so far on Friday.

The stock’s downward trajectory has shaved billions off of the net worth of Alibaba founder and chairman, Jack Ma, who was once China’s richest person.

Ma’s fortune fell by another $350 million on Friday, bringing his net worth to $38.6 billion, according to Forbes’ estimates.

The billionaire’s wealth is down dramatically from its peak: Ma was worth as much as $66.6 billion when Alibaba’s stock price hit a record high of around $317 per share on October 27, 2020.

It has been a difficult year for the Chinese billionaire, who is also the cofounder of fintech giant Ant Group: Ma has largely kept a low public profile since Beijing’s regulatory crackdown heated up last year.

Key Background:

Since last year, the Chinese government has ramped up its regulatory scrutiny of major tech giants in the country—including Alibaba and its peers Tencent, Baidu and TikTok owner ByteDance, accusing them of anticompetitive practices and gathering large amounts of private user data. Billionaire Jack Ma briefly disappeared from public view after Chinese regulators shut down his fintech company Ant Group’s planned $35 billion IPO in November 2020.

Government regulators then fined Alibaba $2.8 billion in April 2021—the highest-ever antitrust penalty imposed in China—for acting like a monopoly. Shares of Alibaba are down nearly 40% so far this year.

What To Watch For:

In its earnings release, the tech giant warned of a “regulatory environment that [could] affect Alibaba’s business operations” as well as “privacy and data protection regulations and concerns.”

Crucial Quote:

Chinese president Xi Jinping “has not backed down” when it comes to the regulatory crackdown, John Freeman, vice president of equity research at CFRA, recently told Yahoo Finance. “There’s actually a delisting risk” when it comes to Alibaba shares, he warns.

Further Reading:

Alibaba Founder Jack Ma Reportedly Resurfaces In Hong Kong (Forbes)

Here’s Why Investors Should Take Another Look At China, According To This Asset Manager (Forbes)

Here’s What Investors Are Most Worried About—Including Meme Stocks And China Real Estate—According To Fed Report (Forbes)

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip.

I am a New York-based reporter covering billionaires and their wealth for Forbes. Previously, I worked on the breaking news team at Forbes covering money and markets.

Source: Alibaba Stock Keeps Falling, Sending Jack Ma’s Net Worth Down $30 Billion In A Year

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