GDP Again Flashes Recession Warning Sign: Economy Shrank 0.6% Last Quarter As Experts Warn ‘Worse To Come’

The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row this year, a second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed Thursday—once again signaling the start of a technical recession even as economists predict signs of a slowdown will only grow in the coming quarters, likely prompting the government to officially declare the economy has entered a recession.

The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.6% in the second quarter despite average expectations originally calling for a 0.3% increase—marking the second consecutive quarter of negative gross domestic product growth and thereby signaling the economy has entered a technical recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in a second estimate released Thursday.

The figure was worse than the 0.5% decline economists were expecting, but ticked up from the 0.9% decline estimated last month.The government blamed the worse-than-expected figure on declines in residential investments (or home buying), federal government spending and business inventories, but said an uptick in exports and spending helped economic activity improve from last quarter’s decline of 1.6%.

According to one working definition, a recession comprises two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, says Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan—but it’s not the official one: Instead, the definitive call is up to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity” lasting “more than a few months.”

Quinlan points out four of the six factors the NBER relies on to declare a recession—production, income, employment and spending—continued to signal expansion through May, but he notes production appears to be “losing steam” and income gains are struggling to keep up with inflation, all while unemployment claims rise and consumers start spending less.

Like other economists, Quinlan isn’t convinced economic indicators last quarter were indicative of a current recession, but he warns the economy is slowing and “it is starting to feel like [entering one] is only a matter of time.”

“We do not think the economy is in recession at present, but if our forecast is correct, this is not so much of a head fake as it is a harbinger of worse to come,” says Quinlan, who argues the negative GDP growth in the first half of the year isn’t likely a function of weak underlying demand but instead due to “one-off” volatile factors such as net exports and inventories. “We expect the loud wailing of an actual recession to begin early next year,” he adds.

The government will update its estimate, based on more complete data, for a third and final time in September.

Though economist projections continued to call for a return to growth in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model in July began signaling the start of a technical recession, pushing its GDP forecast into negative territory after economic data showed consumer spending dropped in May. “The model’s long-run track record is excellent,” say DataTrek analysts Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, pointing out its average error has been just 0.3 points since the Atlanta Fed started running it in 2011.

Ahead of the GDP print, the model projected the economy shrank 1.2% last quarter. It now projects the economy will grow 1.4% in the third quarter. The Fed’s withdrawal of pandemic stimulus measures and interest rate hikes this year have fueled concerns of impending recession. In July, Bank of America economists warned clients that prolonged inflation and the resulting interest rate hikes have unleashed a “worrying deterioration” in the economy, and particularly in the once-booming housing market.

“The Fed has become more committed to using its tools to help restore price stability, with a willingness to accept at least some pain in the process,” they said, predicting the economy will fall into recession over the next year.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Source: GDP Again Flashes Recession Warning Sign: Economy Shrank 0.6% Last Quarter As Experts Warn ‘Worse To Come’

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IMF Warns Of ‘Gloomy Outlook’ For Global Economy, Slashing Growth Estimates

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of a slowdown in global economic growth as the world economy continues to take a hit from “increasingly gloomy developments in 2022,” including high inflation, a slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and ongoing fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The IMF slashed its global growth projections, now expecting global GDP to grow 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, down from previous estimates in April of 3.6% GDP growth for both years.

The group cited a slowdown in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—as a reason for the revised estimates, warning that the risks to the outlook remain “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.”

Several “shocks” have hit the global economy as it tries to recover from the pandemic, including higher-than-expected inflation worldwide––especially in the United States and Europe, a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China caused by Covid lockdowns and “further negative spillovers” from the war in Ukraine.

The IMF also said that high inflation remains a “major problem” as prices have continued to rise in 2022, led by soaring food and fuel costs, arguing that “taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers” worldwide.

The group now expects global inflation to hit 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in developing economies this year, though prices are expected to return to near pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

The IMF also slashed its growth estimates for the U.S. economy, now forecasting GDP to rise 2.3% this year and 1% in 2023, down from previous estimates of 3.7% and 2.3%, respectively, amid the impact of tighter monetary policy and reduced household purchasing power.

“The outlook has darkened significantly since April,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. “The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one.”

“The slowdown in China has global consequences,” the IMF said. “Lockdowns added to global supply chain disruptions and the decline in domestic spending are reducing demand for goods and services from China’s trade partners.” The group now sees China’s economy growing 3.3% in 2022—its lowest pace in four decades and down over 1% from previous estimates.

The World Bank similarly slashed its forecasts for the global economy last month, predicting GDP growth in 2022 of just 2.9%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.1%.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: IMF Warns Of ‘Gloomy Outlook’ For Global Economy, Slashing Growth Estimates

Critics by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions.

China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year. Under our baseline forecast, growth slows from last year’s 6.1 percent to 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year, downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April.

This reflects stalling growth in the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China and the euro area—with important consequences for the global outlook. In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and 1 percent next year.

In China, further lockdowns, and the deepening real estate crisis pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year—the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.

Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. Inflation this year is anticipated to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies—upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively—and is projected to remain elevated longer. Inflation has also broadened in many economies, reflecting the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labor markets.

Related contents:

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How a Russian Natural Gas Cutoff Could Weigh on Europe’s Economies

Facing a Darkening Economic Outlook: How the G20 Can Respond

Middle East Needs Fairer Taxes to Aid Growth and Ease Inequality

Greenhouse Emissions Rise to Record, Erasing Drop During Pandemic

Capital Markets Regulation Is Stronger, but Some Gaps Still Must be Closed

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Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Despite a brutal selloff so far this year in the tech sector, Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Big Tech stocks ahead of upcoming second-quarter earnings this week, with the majority of experts predicting that companies like Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet can continue to post strong profits in the long run.

Though tech stocks have been hard-hit this year (with the Nasdaq down 25%) amid surging inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing recession fears, a majority of Wall Street analysts still maintain buy ratings on Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon ahead of key earnings results this week.

Three firms reiterated buy ratings on several big names Monday: Deutsche Bank predicted solid results from Apple, Bank of America expects Facebook parent Meta to see ad revenue take a smaller hit than expected and Oppenheimer predicts “robust” growth in Amazon’s AWS cloud services business.

Analysts note that while the tech sector is already slowing down, hiring across the board amid the more challenging economic environment, after a big selloff earlier this year, valuations are now looking much more attractive.

Netflix and Tesla saw their stocks rally last week after “better than feared” results, while Snap delivered “another train wreck quarter that highlights a digital ad slowdown, Apple iOS privacy headwinds and TikTok competition further heating up,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

While there’s been some “good and bad news” in the tech sector, “there are some encouraging signs” and investors can now buy shares in some of the biggest companies at a more attractive entry point, says Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist for Ally.

Among the more than 250 combined analysts covering the five Big Tech companies reporting earnings this week—Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon—fewer than five have sell ratings—a sign of just how bullish Wall Street is on some of America’s most valuable tech companies.

Alphabet and Microsoft kick off Big Tech earnings on Tuesday. Meta reports Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday. “Investors should be selective when picking stocks within the tech sector,” says David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs. “The strongest types of stocks are the ones where cash flows are strong and valuations underestimate the company’s ability to generate cash flows in the future.”

He especially likes Google parent Alphabet, which is trading at a “much cheaper” valuation than its peers and should continue to outperform, thanks to its ability to keep innovating. Trainer is “not as confident” about Facebook parent Meta, however, questioning the company’s “ability to sustain profits,” especially as it struggles to retain users amid increased competition from the likes of TikTok. His firm also remains bullish and “big fans” of Apple, though the stock is still somewhat expensive, he adds.

All of the Big Tech stocks have seen big losses so far this year, though they have recovered somewhat in recent months. Meta has suffered the greatest losses, with its market value falling by roughly half as Facebook’s ad business continues to struggle. Amazon and Alphabet are both down roughly 25%, Microsoft more than 20% and Apple 15%.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Critics by

In a single two-and-a-half-hour stretch on Jan. 25, Microsoft Corp. stock erased $156 billion of its shareholders’ money, then rebounded, recovering all of its losses and adding $74 billion. In one sense this was just another lurch in the markets’ wild ride in 2022, as investors adjust to recovering economies and the prospect of rising interest rates. But it also points to a new environment in which the most valuable U.S. tech companies are going to have to work harder to justify their trillion-dollar or near-trillion-dollar valuations.

The Big Tech companies are still doing well. The day after Microsoft’s earnings, Apple reported a quarterly performance that wildly exceeded expectations. On Feb. 1, Alphabet also beat analysts’ projections. Share prices for both companies spiked—but remain below their peaks. The way Microsoft’s white-knuckle afternoon played out is particularly illustrative of the shifting environment: At 4 p.m. New York time, it released quarterly financial results.

They exceeded analysts’ expectations, except for one crucial number: Growth slowed slightly at its lucrative Azure cloud computing business. Investors panicked, sending shares down as much as 6.8% in aftermarket trading. Shortly after 6 p.m., Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood told analysts that cloud computing growth would accelerate again in the next fiscal quarter. The stock jumped, erasing the earlier losses.

Short-term stock gyrations have limited predictive power. But the activity around Microsoft’s earnings highlighted how negatively investors are now inclined to react to slowing growth at key units, even if revenue and earnings beat expectations.

A standard way to look at how excited investors are about a particular company is to compare its share price with its expected earnings. In January 2017 the stocks of the five most valuable tech companies—Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft—traded in line with the S&P 500 as a whole, at 19 times their predicted earnings. By September 2020 that multiple for the Big Tech companies was 42, while the market as a whole traded at a 27 multiple.

Investors were rewarded. Apple shareholders enjoyed an average 43% annual return over the past five years if they reinvested all their dividends back into the stock. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google generated average returns of 38%, 28%, and 26%, respectively. Even Facebook’s relatively modest 18% outperformed the S&P 500’s average of 16%.

The lockdowns helped widen the gap between tech and everyone else, according to Kasper Elmgreen, the head of equities at Amundi SA. “The economy gets turned off, so we had an historic economic contraction that hit [vehicular] traffic, leisure, industrials, construction, financial services, and so forth hardest,” he says.

That could be changing. The Covid-19 omicron wave is receding in many places, and businesses that suffered during the pandemic could benefit more than tech companies from a renewed recovery. This could send investors looking to increase their stakes in companies they’ve spurned for the past two years while they focused on the tech giants.

“The whole case for investing in these companies and inflating their premiums was the fact that growth was scarce and they had the strongest growth prospects in the S&P 500,” says Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. “As economic conditions improve, that premium will naturally deflate.”

Related contents:

Netflix Stock Surges After Earnings—But Analysts Divided About Whether Growth Can Recover

New China Covid-19 Lockdowns Would Threaten U.S. Economic Recovery (Just Ask Tesla)

Tesla Shares Rally Despite Slowdown In Profits, Impact From China Shutdown

Dow Jumps 700 Points, Analysts ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ After More Solid EarningsNZ sharemarket falls another 0.2%, underperforms Wall Street Stuff.co.nz

07:34

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To Speed Up Your Productivity, Slow Down

Imagine this: you step into the elevator and instinctively reach for your smart phone, only to discover that you’ve mistakenly left it at your desk. A sense of panic sets in as you wonder what to do. What will you think about when you can’t have your “thoughts” fed to you?

We live in an age of information, when there is always a new browser window to open, pop-up to click, post to like, and headline to react to. According to Pew Research, 31% of adults are online nearly constantly. This has led to as many as 75% of adults feeling better informed about national news and 65% perceiving themselves more knowledgeable about health and fitness.

More people being more informed sounds like a positive development. With the benefit of receiving more input than ever, we might expect our output to be greater, too. A higher volume of information readily at our disposal should better equip us to make decisions, connect the dots, and share knowledge with one another.

Yet, the power of information comes with an asterisk. We are facing a moment in time when people are feeling more disconnected than ever. Mental health problems are more pervasive among young people who frequently use social media. Not only are Americans generally feeling more isolated, anxious and depressed; they are also becoming less creative. Torrance creativity scores have been steadily declining since the ’90s (University of William and Mary), which many scientists attribute to the increased time we spend staring at our screens, presumably consuming information.

As someone who credits my track record of launching unlikely social ventures like KIND (at least in part) to my penchant for daydreaming and “talking to myself,” I suspect that the gap between information and creativity lies in our distracted movement away from self-reflection. I have no doubt that those moments I spent whistling and singing on the walk to school; the countless times boredom forced me to use my imagination; and the brainstorms I still conduct unofficially in the shower, have helped me uncover what gives me meaning, and have led to some my most creative ideas.  

Self-reflection is the transformative process of converting information into something far more valuable: ideas. It is an exercise through which we make sense of inputs, critically evaluate them, and consider what we might have done wrong so that we can do better next time. It can help us sort fact from fiction. It can help us relate information to our own life experiences to inform our own purpose. By combining information in unexpected ways, we practice creativity. If material simply goes in, but doesn’t get analyzed, it’s not only worthless; it’s an impediment to productive thought.

One of the reasons children are considered more creative than adults is that they know less. They have less information about how the world works, which leaves more space for them to imagine what it could be. This does not mean that we should all go ahead and succumb to ignorance, but it does mean that we should be wary of information overload drowning out self-reflection.

Digesting thoughts requires more energy than does simply consuming information. It follows that self-reflection requires commitment from our part. Especially in the age of information, we are fighting against addictive properties of dopamine-triggering constant reward-systems. It is easy to get distracted. It is easy to be entertained. It is easy, but also damaging, to slowly let our own creativity slip away.

Anyone who has decided to be an entrepreneur is not looking for easy. Entrepreneurs depend on their creativity, and that creativity relies on spending concerted time and space away from your devices to let your mind wander, think critically, and create. The next time you are stepping out of the office, consider leaving your phone behind and see what happens.

By : Daniel Lubetzky

Source: To Speed Up Your Productivity, Slow Down | Inc.com

How Distractions and Delays affect Speed and Productivity

What is the impact of these distractions? Of course, it makes employees lose focus on their work, and also slows down their work speed and productivity. The Udemy survey also revealed that once an employee is distracted, it takes 23 minutes to refocus on a task. So powerful are these distractions that they sometimes side-track the regular project work.

The reality about distractions caused by social media or surfing the Internet is that they become ongoing tasks, one news item prompts the employee to browse through other related articles. It is like a bottomless pit – the employee gets sucked into it and loses track of time. In the beginning, employees are able to snap away from these distractions and refocus on their work, but once they get addicted to these distractions, their work speed and productivity go for a toss.

In addition to distractions, delays in business processes also affect the speed and productivity at work. The most common delays are approval delays. Delay in the approval of invoices or requisitions causes bottlenecks in the business process.

Here are few tips to bring back the focus and speed up your work:

1. Sharpen your focus:

Narrowing down your focus on work-related stuff helps in increasing productivity. Steering clear from distractions and focusing on your work helps get work done faster. This doesn’t mean you cannot take breaks; all you need to do is the time your breaks so that you don’t lose focus from your work.

2. Set deadlines:

Self-imposed deadlines motivate employees to speed up their work. You can set everyday deadlines or weekly targets to complete your work. Still better, you can reward yourself once the targets are achieved. You can treat yourself to a movie or a meal at your favorite restaurant, or as simple as a candy bar when you achieve targets.

3. Set work schedules:

being organized in your work is a great way of increasing your productivity. Sketch a work schedule that times your work, breaks, and meetings. If you set a schedule for a week, then you can review and make changes whenever required.

4. Leverage technology:

Adopting the latest technology like automation can speed up business processes. Redundancies are eliminated and business processes are streamlined by automating the repetitive, mundane steps in a process. Approval delays can be avoided by automated approvals.

By: cflowapps

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18:26

 

The Worst Of The Stock Market Crash May Be Yet To Come

Though stronger than expected, the rate of inflation in April slowed for the first time in eight months, but experts still aren’t sure how long it will take for prices to return to normal levels—even if the worst has finally passed.

Overall prices rose 0.3% from March—higher than the 0.2% economists were expecting but much lower than the previous month’s increase of 1.2%, according to data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday.

On a yearly basis, prices jumped 8.3% last month, falling from 8.5% in March but exceeding expectations calling for an increase of 8.1%; the slowdown marked the first month-over-month decline since August.

The overall increase was the result of broad upticks across shelter, food, airline fares and new vehicle prices, while a month-over-month decline of 6.1% in long-surging gasoline prices (which spiked 18% in March) helped offset the gains, the government said.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6% in April after a 0.3% uptick in March—a “seriously disappointing” jump given expectations for a 0.4% increase, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson said in an email Wednesday, pointing out a 1.1% increase in new vehicle prices was “significantly bigger” than in recent months.

In a weekend note to clients, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker cautioned the inflation outlook remains “highly uncertain” due to lingering supply chains, red-hot wage growth and still-surging commodity priceswith gas prices, for example, jumping to record highs on Tuesday.

The economist expects shelter inflation will remain firm amid the tightest housing market in decades, while price spikes driven by supply chain constraints will “fall sharply” as bottlenecks ease, particularly in used cars and consumer electronics, which saw prices continue to fall in April.

“The slight moderation in inflation will likely provide some needed boost in consumer confidence,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said in emailed comments Wednesday. “Investors and policy makers both know inflation will likely stay above target for a while but both will focus on the direction of the change.”Stocks fell immediate after the Wednesday CPI report, with S&P 500 futures falling 1.1% by 9:05 a.m. ET, while Nasdaq futures plunged 1.8%.

The reopening economy and fiscal stimulus helped fuel one of the strongest starts to a bull market ever during the pandemic, but stocks have struggled this year as the Fed raises rates and unwinds economic support to ease inflation.

After rising 27% in 2021, the S&P has fallen 17% this year, while the Nasdaq has flirted with bear-market territory, plummeting as much as 26%. “A repricing of stocks is currently taking place due to rising interest rates, which mathematically makes stocks less attractive,” explains David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of $3.6 billion advisory The Bahnsen Group.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at

Source: The Worst Of The Stock Market Crash May Be Yet To Come, According To Wall Street’s ‘Fear Gauge’ Signal

.

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