Strong Buyout Fund Returns Drive Private Equity Stocks Higher

Private equity

Over the past decade, as private equity firms like Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle Group have grown into a gargantuan size and raised buyout funds nearing or eclipsing $20 billion, one critique of their cash gusher was that it would inevitably drive fund returns lower. Now, as the U.S. economy emerges from the Coronavirus pandemic and markets soar to new record highs, recent earning results from America’s big buyout firms reveal a trend of rising returns even as funds surged in size.

Fueled by piping-hot financial markets, returns from the flagship private equity funds of Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle are on the rise. Mega funds from these firms that recently ended their investment period are all running ahead of their prior vintages and raise the prospect that PE firms can achieve net investment return rates nearing or exceeding 20%.

Carlyle, which reported first quarter earnings on Thursday morning, is the newest firm to exhibit rising performance. Its $13 billion North American buyout fund, Carlyle Partners VI, which was launched in 2014 and ended its investment period in 2018, is now being marked at a 21% gross investment rate of return and a net return of 16%, or a 2.2-times multiple on invested capital.

The fund has realized $8.8 billion of investments, like insurance brokerage PIB Group and consultancy PA Consulting, and sits on a portfolio marked at nearly $20 billion. The returns are two-to-three percentage points ahead of Carlyle Partners V, the flagship buyout fund it raised just before the financial crisis. That fund is on track to earn a net IRR of of 14%, or a multiple of 2.1-times its invested capital.

Rising fund profitability, even at scale, is helping to fuel Carlyle’s overall profitability. Net accrued performance fees from Carlyle VI ended the quarter at nearly $1.4 billion and Carlyle sits on a record $3.2 billion in such performance fees that will likely be fully realized in 2021. The firm’s once-lagging stock has recently risen to new record highs.

The trend is even more clear at Blackstone and KKR, which have both used spongy IPO markets to realize multi-billion dollar investment windfalls in recent months.

Blackstone’s flagship $18 billion private equity fund, Blackstone Capital Partners VII, was closed in May 2016 and ended its investment period in February 2020, just before the Covid-19 economic meltdown. After taking public or exiting investments like Bumble, Paysafe and Refinitiv, this fund is now marked at a 18% net investment rate of return, five percentage points better than its prior fund, which raised in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.

In the past two quarters, the fund has been the single biggest driver of Blackstone’s record profitability, generating over $1.6 billion in combined accrued performance fees. In the first quarter, the fund was responsible for 82-cents in quarterly per-share profits, filings show. Overall, Blackstone sits on a record $5.2 billion in net accrued performance fees.

At KKR, it’s a similar story. The firm’s $8.8 billion Americas XI fund, which was raised in 2012 and ended its investment period in 2017, is generating net IRRs of 18.5%, or a 2.2-times multiple on invested capital, according to the its annual 10-k filing from February. That sets up the fund to be KKR’s most profitable buyout fund since the 1990s.

KKR’s first quarter results, set to be released in early May, may show even bigger windfalls and higher returns. Its recent public offering of Applovin looks to be one of the greatest windfalls in the firm’s history, bolstering returns and profits for its even newer $13.5 billion Americas Fund XII. Asia could also be an area of big returns as its $9 billion Asian Fund III monetizes investments.

As returns rise, PE firms have seen their stocks soar to new record highs.

Once a laggard, Carlyle is up 36% year-to-date to a new record high above $42, according to Morningstar data. The firm, now led by chief executive Kewsong Lee, has returned an annual average of 23% over the past five-years.

KKR has done even better, rising 40% this year alone and 125% over the past 12-months. It’s five and ten-year total stock returns are now 33% and 13.5%, respectively.

The top performer in the industry is Blackstone Group, which recently eclipsed a $100 billion market value. Up 39% this year alone, Blackstone’s generated an average annualized total return of nearly 19% over the past decade, which is about five-percentage-points better annually than the S&P 500 Index.

Bottom Line: With public markets hitting new record highs, buyout firms are reporting LBO returns not seen since the 1990s. Their stocks, which once badly lagged the S&P 500, are beginning to beat the market.

I’m a staff writer and associate editor at Forbes, where I cover finance and investing. My beat includes hedge funds, private equity, fintech, mutual funds, mergers, and banks. I’m a graduate of Middlebury College and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, and I’ve worked at TheStreet and Businessweek. Before becoming a financial scribe, I was a member of the fateful 2008 analyst class at Lehman Brothers. Email thoughts and tips to agara@forbes.com. Follow me on Twitter at @antoinegara

Source: Strong Buyout Fund Returns Drive Private Equity Stocks Higher

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors Look To Utilities To Weather Any Market Rout

NEW YORK: Investors looking for ways to protect themselves from a potential market downturn and rising inflation have been warming to utilities, sometimes seen as bond substitutes, as attractive alternatives.

The S&P 500 utilities index has outperformed the broader market this month, rising 9.3 per cent so far compared with a 4.3 per cent gain in the benchmark index and leading gains among sectors for March.Driving the gains may be a defensive move by investors to position themselves against a potential slide in equities, with worries mounting over higher inflation as seen in the jump in 10-year Treasury yields and over pricey stock valuations, some strategists say.Utilities tend to do better in a downturn because they pay dividends and offer stability. “It’s a little defensive positioning,” said Joseph Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank in New York.

While the economy is expected to rebound sharply this year from the impact of the coronavirus, that optimism may be dampened by next year if unemployment remains elevated and growth slows more than expected. Some investors say utilities also may be benefiting from hopes that there will be a bigger push toward green energy under the Biden Administration. President Joe Biden is expected to unveil next week a multitrillion-dollar plan to rebuild America’s infrastructure that may also tackle climate change.
“If you get any acceleration of the decarbonization rhetoric, that’s a positive for utilities,” said Shane Hurst, managing director and portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments. But whether the recent surge in utilities has further room to run is a matter of debate, and many strategists and investors, including Quinlan, still favor cyclicals that benefit from economic growth over defensive-leaning groups such as utilities.

The gains in utilities have come amid a rotation from technology and other growth stocks into so-called value stocks. The Nasdaq Composite has fallen in March after four straight months of gains. Cyclicals, which investors dumped during the early part of the pandemic, have benefited the most from the rotation. An end-of-quarter rebalancing of investment portfolios by institutional investors may be adding to the recent rotation from growth into value.
While utilities still sharply lag gains for the year compared with many cyclical sectors, including energy, they are also considered inexpensive at this point by some investors. After a weak performance in 2020, utilities “are just really, really cheap at the moment,” Hurst said. “And that is an attractive place to be when you’re in a market that’s very much earnings driven.”

The utilities sector is trading at 18.3 times forward earnings compared with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 for the S&P 500 index and 26 for technology, according to Refinitiv’s data. David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer for DWS, which has an overweight rating on utilities, said interest rates are still low, but utilities offer inflation protection because they would be able to raise their prices.

As of Friday, the S&P 500 utilities sector had a dividend yield of 3.3 per cent, the second-highest among S&P sectors after consumer staples, and well above the 1.5 per cent yield for the S&P 500, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.Benchmark 10-year note yields were at 1.660 per cent on Friday after reaching a one-year high of 1.754 per cent the week before. “Utilities is our most preferred bond substitute,” said Bianco.

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An Investment in Hershey’s Stock Looks Sweeter Than Ever

Hershey’s (NYSE:HSYbecame an attractive investment last year when the COVID-driven sell-off resulted in ultra-low prices for this consumer staple. The company was not only well-positioned to weather the storm internal efforts to reposition the portfolio for longer-term sustainable growth were beginning to pay off. Over the past year, the company has finalized three major divestitures that have it in leaner shape, with a healthier balance sheet, and accelerating business.

Hershey’s, A Triple-Dip Of Good News

Hershey’s reported a very solid quarter despite headwinds related to divestitures and FX. Divestitures and FX resulted in a 0.2% and 0.4% headwind to the topline results with the takeaway being these headwinds are largely behind the company. That said, the $2.19 in reported consolidated revenue is 5.8% higher than last year and beat the consensus by 330 basis points. The gains were made on a 6.3% increase in organic sales due to a 5.75% increase in volume and a 0.6% increase in pricing. The U.S. segment was strongest with a bain of 9.06% while International saw its sales fall 13.1%.

Moving down the report, the company’s volume increase and internal efforts resulted in a significant increase in both the growth and operating margins. At the operating level, the GAAP margin increased by 470 basis points to 18.5% while the adjusted margin widened 170 basis points to 19.6% and both ahead of the consensus. The increase in revenue and margin resulted in earnings leverage and adjusted EPS of $1.49 or $0.06 better than expected.

“We delivered a strong quarter with continued share gains and volume growth to finish the year.   While the impact of key external factors on our business remains uncertain, we have good momentum going into 2021 with visibility into a strong start to the year.  We anticipate we will deliver another year of balanced sales and earnings growth in 2021,” said Michele Buck, The Hershey Company President, and Chief Executive Officer.

If the first dip of good news is the earnings beat, and the second the company’s increasing margins and earnings leverage, the third is the guidance. The company was among the first to reinstate guidance at the end of the calendar 3rd quarter 2020 and it has upped that guidance now. The company’s new projection has F2021 revenue growth in the range of 2-4% versus the previously expected 2.0% and a more robust 6-8% increase in EPS versus the $4.54 previously announced.

Hershey’s Dividend Is The Sprinkles On Top

If accelerating business, improving profitability, and earnings leverage aren’t enough to get you interested in Hershy there is also the dividend to consider. The company pays about 2.2% in yield with shares near $147 and there is a high expectation of future distribution increases. The company is paying about 48% of its earnings but that is based on a consensus figure well-below current guidance. The company’s earnings picture is backed up by a very healthy balance sheet as well, one that carries a moderate amount of cash and debt has good coverage and ample FCF. If the company follows true to form the next increase will come in later summer and could be worth as much as 10% of the current payout.

The Technical Outlook: Hershey’s Is Struggling With Resistance

Shares of Hershey’s popped on the news but resistance at the short-term moving average threatens to keep price action range-bound or moving lower. If price action cannot get above the 30 EMA a retest of the $144 level or lower becomes the most likely scenario. If, however, the bulls can rally and get above the EMA a move up to $152 or $153 looks probable.

By: Thomas Hughes

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Here’s Why Stocks Are At Record Highs Following The Capitol Chaos In DC

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high on Wednesday and reached an intraday record on Thursday, despite pro-Trump insurrectionists violently storming the Capitol and disrupting the confirmation of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory.
  • The bullish mood on Wall Street has less to do with the riots and more to do with Democrats winning Georgia’s Senate runoff elections and taking control of Congress.
  • Stocks hinge on the prospects of corporate profit growth. The soft Democratic majority in the Senate lifts Biden’s chances of passing the fiscal stimulus that experts have urged Congress to enact for months.
  • A $1 trillion relief package could “easily” boost GDP expansion in 2021 by 1 point to 6%, Michelle Meyer, the head of US economics at Bank of America, said. That would all but certainly lift investors’ hopes for near-term profit growth.
  • Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

While pro-Trump insurrectionists remained illegally perched on the steps of the US Capitol on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high.

The market uptick has little to do with violence on Capitol Hill. Instead of fearing the chaos and President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, investors kept their sights set on Georgia’s runoff outcomes.

Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff’s victories in the Senate races push Democrats’ seat count in the body to 50, allowing for Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to break any ties. The soft majority paves the way for President-elect Joe Biden to pass more progressive policy, including fiscal relief meant to drive the US out of the coronavirus recession.

Stocks move – and always have moved – on the prospects of expanding corporate profits. Experts on Wall Street, at universities, and in the Federal Reserve have spent months telling Congress that sweeping fiscal stimulus is necessary to drive a faster and more equitable economic recovery. Climbing stock prices reflect investors’ beliefs that following Democrats’ wins in Georgia, such a relief package is more likely to reach Biden’s desk. 

Another round of stimulus would be a game changer for economic growth and accelerate the rebound to pre-pandemic levels of activity, Michelle Meyer, the head of US economics at Bank of America, said in a Thursday note. The package would likely prioritize another round of direct payments, an extension of federal unemployment benefits, funds for state and local governments, and relief for healthcare workers.

A $1 trillion relief package could “easily” boost gross domestic product growth in 2021 by 1 percentage point to roughly 6%, according to the bank. The positive economic effect could be even larger, as the estimates hinge on conservative spending multipliers, Meyer added.

Economists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs similarly linked optimistic GDP projections to Democrats’ wins in Georgia. Credit Suisse raised its S&P 500 forecast on Thursday, saying the increased likelihood of new stimulus in early 2021 could drive the index 12% higher through the year.

Concerns that the Washington riots would create a lasting risk were largely alleviated Thursday morning. Congress certified Biden’s victory after hours of debate and failed efforts to object to Electoral College vote counts. Trump pledged to conduct “an orderly transition” soon after, reversing from previous claims that he won the election and would remain in office.

The ensuring of a peaceful transition further augmented bullish sentiments. All three major stock indexes notched record intraday highs on Thursday as investors viewed the certification as a return to business as usual.

“With the political tensions easing, more stimulus expected to help boost the economy, and coronavirus vaccines helping bring a measure of calm to investors and traders, it seems that the market can now focus on earnings season,” JJ Kinahan, the chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said.

By: Ben Winck

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Dan Takahashi – English Channel

TWITTER: https://twitter.com/Dan_Takahashi_ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/dantakahashi1/ FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/DanTakahashiJP/ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-takah… I’m building a new company and recruiting team members who live in Tokyo! If you meet the criteria, please email daniel@dkocapital.net with your (1)experience and (2)education background! ■ Software engineer (1), development of iOS or Android Social Media & Business News App, over 2 years experience ■ Software engineer (2), development of iOS or Android Investing App, over 2 years of experience ■ Attorney, specialized in Japanese Financial Instruments and Exchange Law, more than 5 years of experience ■ Quants analyst, investing algorithm development, more than 3 years of experience ■ Portfolio Manager, asset management of large fund, over 5 years experience ■ Professor from Top Japan Univeristy, specializing in finance, more than 5 years of experience ■ Previous Important Videos! Create a Long Term Investment Portfolio? https://youtu.be/Vdwx4z0rJ-g Short Term Investing….Key is to Find the Trend? https://youtu.be/TMLWUjlb_wU Top ETFs for your portfolio? https://youtu.be/Yfv3PvPKeuM AVOID Leverage & Inverse ETFs? https://youtu.be/tDoQgr1OLf8 3 Secrets to CUTTING LOSSES? https://youtu.be/KA8vIaaEXYI ■ Chart Technical analysis Videos RSI – https://youtu.be/plpR2HOWyM4 BOLLINGER BAND – https://youtu.be/Hkn2F3pJyuc MACD – Find the Trend? https://youtu.be/nNt5s8PwjkQ Pivot Point Analysis – https://youtu.be/aQWotA5yT7A ■ Media Inquires please Contact: daniel@dkocapital.net ■ Dan Takahashi Profile ・560k total Followers (bit over 6 months) ・Cornell University, Honors Magna Cum Laude ・Entrepreneur, Investor, Media Commentator Born in Tokyo, half-Japanese, half-American. Have lived in 6 countries and visited over 60 countries! Started investing at 12 years old, began Wall Street when 19, created hedge fund when 26, and sold company stake at 30 years old. I love nato beans & karaoke ❤❗ ■ Japanese Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFXl…#stockmarket#dantakahashi#investing

US Stocks Climb Higher In First Trading Session of 2021

  • US stocks climbed higher in the first trading session of 2021 on Monday as investors returned from the New Year holiday.
  • Bitcoin saw a volatile trading session on Monday after it fell 17% following a surge to record highs just below $35,000.
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US stocks gained in the first trading session of 2021 on Monday as investors returned from the New Year holiday.

Bitcoin surged and then dropped in a volatile trading session. The popular cryptocurrency hit record highs just below $35,000 on Sunday before falling as much as 17% in Monday trades to levels not seen since last week. Bitcoin’s fall was its steepest since March. 

Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Monday:

Read more: GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 37 stocks that could earn you the strongest returns without taking on big risks in 2021 as the recovery and vaccine distribution get underway

Tesla jumped 3% after it said it delivered nearly 500,000 electric vehicles in 2020, besting Wall Street expectations and falling just a few hundred vehicles short of its delivery target.

Nio was following in Tesla’s footsteps after it reported record December and fourth quarter delivery numbers. The stock jumped as much as 5% in Monday trades.

Herbalife fell in Monday trades after billionaire investor Carl Icahn sold $600 million worth of shares in the company and gave up board seats.

Oil prices were mixed. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.33%, to $48.36 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, rose 0.14%, to $51.87 per barrel.

Gold jumped 2.69%, to $1,946.10 per ounce.

By: Matthew Fox

Read more: The space industry will grow by over $1 trillion in the next decade, says Bank of America. Here are the 14 stocks best-positioned to benefit from the boom.SEE ALSO:Warren Buffett’s right-hand man shapes his investing approach and keeps him disciplined, ‘Shark Tank’ star Kevin O’Leary says »READ NOW:Herbalife slides after Carl Icahn sells $600 million of stock in the company »

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Capital.com 88.6K subscribers Watch our detailed S&P 500 forecast 2021 and see where the stock market will be headed throughout the coming year. Despite all the economic turmoil that this year has brought to the world, 2020 has actually been stellar for the stock market, and many further growth for S&P 500 in 2021. So much so that many analysts have already predicted more double digit gains in their SP500 index forecast. The distribution of new COVID-19 vaccines is largely what is considered to be a strong driver for the SP500 analysis 2021 due to the lasting economic recovery that it implies.

In fact, JPMorgan Chase has even stated that these are among the best conditions for sustained gains in years as far as the SP500 outlook 2021 goes. With that in mind, all the most prominent projections for the SP500 target 2021 range from 3,800 to 4,200. And some of these SP500 estimates 2021 are even fairly modest, as they don’t all consider a positive vaccine outcome. And if the results of the vaccine do prove positive, then there’s room for even more upside in the SP500 forecast. Hence, for SP500 investing, 2021 may actually prove to be the best year in history. But there’s also another take on the SP500 prediction 2021, which we will cover in today’s video. Stay tuned for our full SP500 forecast 2021.

And find out what the SP500 futures forecast has in store for the coming weeks. Have your own SP 500 futures forecast 2021 in mind? Let us know in the comments! Give us a thumbs up if you liked our “SP 500 Technical Analysis 2021” video, and leave us a comment down below with your thoughts on the current market situation. And for the latest updates on the SP 500 forecast analysis 2021, be sure to subscribe to the Capital.com channel! #SP500#SP500Forecast#SP500Futures

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