U.S. Economic Growth Is Peaking And That Means Stocks Could Struggle This Year, Goldman Warns

As the economic benefits of massive fiscal stimulus and businesses reopening reach their peak in the coming weeks, Goldman Sachs analysts are warning that U.S. economic growth will slow, leading to “paltry” stock returns over the next year and an end to the market’s massive pandemic rally.

U.S. economic growth will peak within the next two months, Goldman analysts said in a Thursday morning note, forecasting that gross domestic product will grow by an annualized 10.5% rate in the second quarter, the strongest expansion since 1978 aside from the economy’s stark mid-pandemic rebound in the third quarter of last year.

Economic growth will then “slow modestly” in the third quarter and continue to decelerate over the next several quarters, the analysts predicted, adding that such deceleration is typically associated with weaker stock returns and higher market volatility.

In a sign that fiscal stimulus effects and economic activity are peaking, the ISM Manufacturing index, a monthly economic indicator measuring industrial activity, registered at 65 in March—above the threshold of 60 that Goldman says typically represents peak economic growth.

Coming off the worst quarter in history, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace ever in the third quarter as a nation battered by an unprecedented pandemic put itself back together. Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, Stephanie Kelton, professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University, and Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, join “Squawk Box” to discuss. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic
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According to Goldman, the S&P 500 has historically fallen an average of 1% in the month after the ISM Manufacturing index registers more than 60, and in the subsequent 12 months, it’s gained a “paltry” 3%—significantly less than the 14% annualized return over the last 10 years.

Goldman expects the S&P will end the year at 4,300 points—implying just a 4% increase from Thursday’s close, lower than some other market forecasters who expect the index could soar to as high as 5,000 points by year’s end.

Crucial Quote

“Equities often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth begins to slow,” a group of Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider said Thursday, noting that during the last 40 years. “It is not a coincidence that ISM readings have rarely exceeded 60 during the last few decades; investors buying U.S equities at those times were buying stocks at around the same time as strong economic growth was peaking—and starting to decelerate.”

Surprising Fact

The most recent ISM reading is the highest since a level of 70 in December 1983—after which the S&P inched up just 0.2% in the following 12 months.

Key Background

Trillions of dollars in unprecedented fiscal stimulus during the pandemic have helped lift the stock market to new highs over the past year, and though President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan could add even more fuel to the economy, Anu Gaggar, a senior investment analyst for Commonwealth Financial Network, said Thursday that “investors have been quick to recognize [that] much of the upside has already been priced.”

That’s evidenced by the growing divergence in performance between the broader market and growth stocks this year, Gaggar says, echoing the sentiment from Goldman analysts Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which far outperformed the broader market by surging 44% last year, has climbed about 9% this year, underperforming the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which are up roughly 12% each.

Further Reading

S&P 500 Passes 4,000—And These Market Experts Think It Can Keep Climbing Higher. Here’s Why. (Forbes)

Dow Jumps 200 Points: Stocks Fend Off Third Day Of Losses Despite Biotechs, Netflix Falling (Forbes)

I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com.

Source: U.S. Economic Growth Is Peaking And That Means Stocks Could Struggle This Year, Goldman Warns

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Key quotes

“Economists predict 10.5% GDP growth for the second quarter, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 1978.”

“Growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year will clock in at 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively. Growth is then seen slowing in each quarter of 2022 — by the fourth quarter Goldman is modeling a mere 1.5% GDP increase.”

“Although our economists expect U.S. GDP growth will remain both above trend and above consensus forecasts through the next few quarters, they believe the pace of growth will peak within the next 1-2 months as the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and economic reopening reach their maximum impact and then begin to fade.”

FX implications

The US dollar index drops 0.10% to trade at 91.25, as of writing. The dollar gauge resumes its downside momentum after facing rejection just below 91.50 in the US last session.

Latest Forex News

Stocks Fall Again As Experts Worry About ‘Extremely Bullish’ Market Indicators

After closing at record highs last week, stocks are falling for the second day in a row as corporate earnings—which lifted the market to new highs during the pandemic—start to show signs of weakness, all while speculative pockets of investor mania continue to rage on.

Shortly after the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 147 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 also slipped 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which underperformed Monday, shed 0.3%.

Far outperforming any other stock in the S&P, shares of railroad company Kansas City Southern are soaring 15% after Canada National proposed to acquire the company in a $33.7 billion deal—topping Canadian Pacific’s $25 billion bid from last month and setting the stage for a potential bidding war.

Heading up the S&P’s losses, Marlboro parent Altria Group’s stock is slumping 6% after reports that Joe Biden’s administration (which has not commented on the matter) is considering a reduction in the amount of nicotine allowed in tobacco products.

On the earnings front, shares of IBM are climbing 2.5% after the software giant surpassed first-quarter expectations with revenue of $5.4 billion—bolstered by ongoing growth in its enterprise cloud business—and adjusted earnings of $2.2 billion.

Meanwhile, medical device company Abbott, which makes Covid-19 test kits, reported worse-than-expected revenue of $10.5 billion Tuesday morning as Covid-related sales fell nearly 10% quarter to quarter, sending shares down about 3%.

Reflecting ongoing uncertainty over the economic recovery, epicenter stocks—or those belonging to companies hard-hit by the pandemic—are also driving losses Tuesday, with chemicals firms Dupont De Nemours, cruise-liner Carnival Corp. and Delta Air Lines all falling about 2%.

Crucial Quote

“The reopening news is directionally positive, but the big problem is that many epicenter stocks have already seen their enterprise values return to pre-Covid levels, while some are well beyond where they stood in 2019,” Vital Knowledge Media Founder Adam Crisafulli said in a Tuesday morning note.

Tangent

In a break from tradition, the Bank of Japan revealed Tuesday that it opted out of buying exchange-traded funds despite weakness in Japanese stocks. Crisafulli says the move is “perhaps the most important piece of news today” because it signals the central bank is dialing back its economic support—at a time when central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, have revved up their accommodative policy to help the economy and usher in new stock-market highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225, the nation’s benchmark index, fell 2% Tuesday and is now down 4.5% from a February high.

Key Background

Boosted by massive fiscal stimulus, an accelerating vaccine rollout and falling unemployment, stocks have had a strong start to the year, with the S&P pulling off 23 new all-time highs in 2021, according to LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Many of our favorite sentiment gauges are becoming extremely bullish, which could be a near-term contrarian warning,” Detrick says of indicators like sentiment, at a three-year high, and low cash allocations from portfolio managers increasingly piling into stocks.

Surprising Fact

The price of dogecoin is soaring Tuesday, climbing back near record territory from last week, as retail traders around the world stage a rally around cannabis holiday 4/20. The cryptocurrency, modeled after a meme and originally developed as a joke, has climbed eight-fold over the past month, nabbing a staggering $49 billion market capitalization.

Further Reading

S&P And Dow Score New Record Highs, For The Week: Health Care, Materials And Utilities Sectors Lead Gains (Forbes)

Peloton Shares Drop After It Resists Regulator Warnings About Treadmill Following Child’s Death  (Forbes)

I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com.

Source: Stocks Fall Again As Experts Worry About ‘Extremely Bullish’ Market Indicators

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Kansas City Southern’s stock soars after Canadian National’s ‘superior’ bid valued at $33.7 bln

 

 

Investors Can Sleep on These 3 Dividend Stocks

Investors Can Sleep on These 3 Dividend Stocks

In a time of economic uncertainty, there is something to be said about low-risk dividend stocks. Companies whose fortunes aren’t directly tied to economic health and that pay a reliable dividend can be a comforting investment to those that aren’t keen on taking on a lot of risk.

Here we highlight three stocks that offer a steady dividend and some peace of mind as the economic recovery unfolds. They aren’t likely to make you rich anytime soon, but they will make for some more restful nights ahead

Is Coca-Cola Still a Buy-and-Hold Stock?

If Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is a refreshing investment for value legend Warren Buffet, it should be good enough for the rest of us. Regardless of the economic backdrop, there will always be consumer demand for sodas, juices, teas, and other beverages.

With this said, restrictions on large gatherings during the pandemic have impacted Coke’s recent financial performances and brought more volatility than usual to the stock. However, with the worst likely over, the company appears to be on the path back to more normalized sales patterns. As family picnics and outdoor concerts gradually return along with restaurant traffic, Coke should start to see higher volumes based on group size rather than stockpiling.

Despite recording 11% lower revenue in 2020, Coke kept its dividend hike streak going serving up a $1.64 payout to loyal shareholders. The 2.4% dividend increase made it 59 straight years of higher dividends.

In the near-term Coke is a conservative way to play the economic reopening theme. Its beverage portfolio is more in tune with health and wellness trends with brands like Vitaminwater, PowerAde, and Minute Maid. As activities like youth sports and amusement park attendance normalize, Coke’s performance should improve.

Longer-term Coke’s rising dividend and defensive nature make it the classic buy and hold stock. So, investors can simply opt to have what Warren’s drinking.

What is a Good Non-Cyclical Dividend Stock?

Speaking of defensive stocks, Unilever (NYSE:UL) is about as non-cyclical as its gets. The U.K.-based consumer products giant is the company behind many of our favorite personal care and food items. Dove soap, Axe body spray, Q-tips, and Vaseline are all Unilever brands. So too are popular indulgences like Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, Lipton iced teas (and soups), Hellmann’s mayonnaise, and even the beloved Popsicle brand.

Unilever is definitely, a mature, low growth business, but sometimes slow and steady wins the race. After rising 9% and 6% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, the low volatility stock is down approximately 8% this year offering investors a good chance to stock up.

Although the elevated demand for Unilever’s food products has waned in recent quarters, it’s pretty much a sure bet that people will still be scooping up their go-to items as shopping patterns normalize. And as usual, this should lead to some solid profits for Unilever and sizeable dividends for shareholders.

Unilever has one of the strongest balance sheets in its peer group that supports an ability to pursue growth opportunities such as product expansion and establishing a greater presence in developing markets. The ADR currently has a 3.4% trailing dividend yield which about twice the average dividend yield of the consumer staples sector. This is an easy stock to throw in the cart as a core long-term holding.

Is it a Good Time to Buy 3M Stock?

3M (NYSE:MMM) has been one of the least volatile U.S. large cap stocks over the last ten years. Although it’s not a consumer defensive company, it’s highly diversified end markets generate some reliable financial results. With broad exposure to the automotive, aerospace, transportation, electronics, and health care industries as well as the consumer space, a downturn in one segment can be easily offset by strength in another.

The company has had some choppy performances in recent quarters. Some of it has related to the pandemic and some has not. Demand for home improvement, cleaning, food safety, and personal safety products has been strong. On the other hand, COVID-19 restrictions have forced the automotive, industrial, office supplies, and oral care businesses to re-evaluate how to adjust to the post pandemic economy.

Fresh off a corporate restructuring, though, 3M looks to be in a good position to capitalize on improving conditions in its key markets and achieve its earnings growth goal. Management is aiming to reduce annual operating expenses by at least $250 million. Based on the initial progress, this looks feasible and should drive higher margins and steady single digit growth over the long-term.

3M consistently rakes in some $30 billion in revenue each year and even in slow or no growth years it rewards shareholders with a higher dividend. In fact, 3M has gone toe to toe with Coca-Cola in raising its annual dividend in each of the last 59 years. The Dow Jones index mainstay has a 3.1% dividend yield and at 23x earnings is trading at the lower end of its historical valuation range. It deserves to be a mainstay in any long-term investment portfolio.

By: MarketBeat

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Credit Suisse Bullish On Stocks In 2021 Because It’s Bullish On 2022

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 23: People walk along Broadway as they pass the Wall Street Charging Bull statue on July 23, 2020 in New York City. On Wednesday July 22, the market had its best day in 6 weeks. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub introduced his 2021 price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) of 4,050, implying 12.2% upside from Tuesday’s closing levels. Underpinning this upbeat call is his assumption that two years from now, the post-virus economic recovery will have already hit a peak.

“Our 2021 forecasts are designed to answer a simple question: what will the future (2022) look like in the future (end of 2021),” Golub said in a new note Wednesday. “From this perspective, we are forced to de-emphasize the near-term, focusing instead on the return to a more normal world.”

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“As we look toward 2022, the virus will be a fading memory, the economy robust, but decelerating, the yield curve steeper and volatility lower, and the rotation into cyclicals largely behind us,” he added.

Based on Golub’s analysis, economic activity as measured by GDP growth will renormalize at levels slightly above trend, or with quarterly annualized growth rates just over 3%, starting in the second half of 2021.

And the labor market — which as of October was still 10 million payrolls short of pre-pandemic levels — will likely reach “full employment” by the second half of 2022, Golub added.

Since the stock market discounts future events, each of these prospects for further improvement down the line should translate into a higher S&P 500 as investors price in these events.

Analysts have already begun to account for an anticipated improvement in corporate profits, as S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have on aggregate sharply topped consensus expectations so far for each of second and third quarter results this year.

“We expect 2020 estimates to rise, 2021 to remain stable and 2022 to moderate,” Golub said.

His 2021 S&P 500 price target of 4,050 is based on earnings per share of $168 next year, for an improvement of 20% over the expected aggregate EPS this year. He expects EPS will then rise to $190 in 2022.

Sector leadership

On a sector basis, Golub rates technology stocks as Overweight for 2021, given their “faster sales growth, superior margins, robust FCF [free cash flow], and low leverage. He also rated financials, one of the laggard sectors so far for the year-to-date, as Overweight, given their propensity to lead during recoveries.

“Consistent with a typical recovery, banks should benefit from improving credit conditions, increasing transaction volumes, and a steepening yield curve,” Golub said. “The group is adequately reserved, likely. resulting in a greater return of capital.”

Golub designated cyclicals with a Neutral rating for next year, saying he is “positively inclined toward economically-sensitive groups and believe[s] their momentum should persist over the near-term.” But he added that he thinks the largest quarter-over-quarter improvements in economic activity have already come and gone, leaving more tepid further upside potential for stocks with profits closely tethered to economic growth.

He rated non-cylicals like consumer staples as underweight, while giving health care specifically an Overweight rating.

“Non-cylicals should lag in an improving economy as falling volatility supports higher P/Es (price-earnings multiples) for riskier assets, and rising rates make their high dividend yields less appealing,” he said. “The one exception is health care, which should outperform given a more robust earnings trend.”

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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Credit Suisse’s Mandy Xu warns that investors are piling into value stocks at their own peril. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman and Steve Grasso. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2JdMwO7 » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: https://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC#CNBC#CNBC TV

Wall Street Strategists Are Already Telling Clients What To Expect In 2021

And Wall Street strategists are starting to move on to 2021. In a note to clients published Thursday, Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, unveiled his S&P 500 price target for 2021. And Darby expects stocks will continue going up next year.

“We expect the market to reach 3,750 by end of 2021,” Darby wrote, unveiling his year-ahead price target for the first time. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at 3,510, implying just under a 7% gain for the benchmark index through the end of next year.

Underpinning Darby’s positive outlook is an improved outlook for corporate earnings amid a strengthening economy and an accommodative Federal Reserve.

“All of our US macro-equity-bond indicators are positive or beginning to turn,” Darby writes.

S&P 500 earnings are finally beginning to reflect the better underlying health of the economy as the backlog of orders increases. Similarly, the Russell 3000 earnings are just turning at the same time as job openings are recovering.”

Darby adds that, “One key underwriter for the markets, under either candidate, has been the Fed with its intervention in both fixed income and credit markets. The influence of the Fed’s balance sheet should not be underestimated as the forward PE ratio has certainly tracked the ‘excess money’ in the economy.”

So while some may argue that the Fed is “out of ammo” after the unprecedented expansion of its credit facilities in the early part of this pandemic, the Fed is still a driving force behind flows in the market. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s stance, saying at a press conference, “We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.”

And as Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer wrote in a note to clients this week, “Remember, a significant and sustainable period of economic retrenchment comes when there is a need for money to fund forward growth but very little access to it. The opposite is true today.”

Darby also expects the political situation to serve as a tailwind to investors. At least as far as market history is concerned.

As of Friday morning, the race for president had yet to be called. However, former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds of winning improved as he took the lead in the battleground state of Georgia over President Trump. Meanwhile, the prospect of a “blue wave” in Congress has been all but ruled out by investors.

In scenarios where a Democrat is in the White House but Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress, average returns for U.S. equities have been fantastic, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 33.9% during these periods since 1989.

Divided government under Democratic presidents has been great for the stock market over the last three decades. (Source: Jefferies)

As Darby writes, “Although we think the equity markets ‘churn’ until a result is determined, history suggests that periods of Democrat Gridlocked Congress tend to deliver positive returns.”

By Myles Udland, reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland

What to watch today

Economy

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Non-farm Payrolls, October (593,000 expected, 661,000 in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Unemployment Rate, October (7.7% expected, 7.9% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month, October (0.2% expected, 0.1% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings year-over-year, September (4.6% expected, 4.7% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.5% expected, 61.4% in September)
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Wholesale Inventories month-over-month, September final (-0.1% in prior print)

Earnings

Pre-market

  • Before market open: Viacom (VIAC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $5.96 billion
  • 6:00 a.m. ET: Coty (COTY) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 20 cents per share on revenue of $1.14 billion
  • 6:30 a.m. ET: CVS Health Corp (CVS) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.33 per share on revenue of $66.66 billion
  • 7:00 a.m. ET: Marriott International (MAR) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 8 cents per share on revenue of $2.23 billion

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Petco retail chain says it’s filed confidentially for U.S. IPO [Bloomberg]

Tesla unveils ‘Tesla Tequila’ for $250, product sold-out on website [Reuters]

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Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins “Squawk Box” to discuss what trends he expects to see in the market as he looks ahead to 2021. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. The News with Shepard Smith is CNBC’s daily news podcast providing deep, non-partisan coverage and perspective on the day’s most important stories. Available to listen by 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT daily beginning September 30: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/the-n… Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: https://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/select/best-cred…#CNBC#CNBCTV

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