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Pantera CEO: $42,000 Bitcoin Price By The End Of 2019 ‘A Good Shot’

A historical Bitcoin price chart on a logarithmic scale.

A historical Bitcoin price chart on a logarithmic scale.

Coin Metrics

In a recent episode of her Unchained podcast, Laura Shin interviewed Dan Morehead and Joey Krug of Pantera Capital, which is a cryptocurrency and blockchain-focused investment fund that was founded in 2013.

During the interview, Morehead commented on the potential future trajectory of the bitcoin price in response to a question related to where the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry is today in its overall life cycle. In his reply, Morehead pointed to a potential price move to $356,000 within three years based on past trends of Bitcoin’s price movements on a logarithmic scale.

Morehead’s math also indicated that a $42,000 bitcoin price by the end of 2019 is in the cards. It should be noted that crypto prime dealer SFOX also recently released a research note that could indicate a bullish move for Bitcoin during the holiday season later this year. Additionally, digital asset research firm Delphi digital recently released a report that showed how retail investor enthusiasm around Bitcoin has returned in 2019.

Bitcoin’s Neverending Hype Cycles

When asked about the current stage of development for the cryptocurrency space as a whole, Morehead first pointed to the Gartner Hype Cycle, which is a method of interpreting the wide-ranging levels of hype that can occur around new technologies.

“A small kernel of something very important gets people to be crazed about [Bitcoin] and then the trough of disillusionment [occurs]. And we’ve already gone through two of those cycles in the six years that we’ve been investing in it,” said Morehead.

Morehead added that it’s important to remember that, in his view, Bitcoin and the technologies around it are a project that will take two decades to unfold, and we’re only ten years into it at this point.

“We still have another solid ten years to go before this is fully fleshed out,” said Morehead.

Although he doesn’t believe the Bitcoin price is a great proxy for the development of the blockchain technology space as a whole, Morehead did point out that the price always tends to be going up when one zooms out more than a year.

“If you ever go back and zoom out your lens more than a year, Bitcoin as a proxy for the industry is always going up,” said Morehead.

According to Morehead, Pantera’s fund has only had one down year in its six years of existence and there has only been one year where Bitcoin’s annual low was lower than the previous year’s low.

“We’re always trying to look three to five years out and be thinking about where the industry will be then rather than worrying about these kind of manic phases of bubbles and then the crypto winters where everyone thinks it’s never going to work,” added Morehead.

Where Does the Bitcoin Price Go from Here?

When asked where the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry is today in terms of these various hype cycles, Morehead pointed out that the Bitcoin price chart is relatively consistent when graphed on a logarithmic scale. However, price bubbles, such as the ones in 2013 and 2017, are also clearly visible on the chart.

On a logarithmic price chart, price movements are tracked in terms of percentage changes rather than simple, nominal price increases and decreases.

Earlier in the year, when Bitcoin was still near the bottom of its current market cycle, Pantera graphed out what the Bitcoin price may look like if it spent the next twelve months returning to its previous trend line and the continued along that trend line for the next couple of years after that. According to Morehead, that previous trend line indicated a compounded annual growth rate of 235%.

This methodology from Pantera pointed to a $42,000 price by the end of 2019, a $122,000 price by the end of 2020, and a $365,000 price by the end of 2021.

“I know [that] sounds crazy, but essentially, we’re half way back there. It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year we hit that,” said Morehead.

Obviously, it should be mentioned that past trends are not indicative of future results. Although it was on a much shorter time scale, there were many people in various cryptocurrency forums touting the LINK altcoin due to its more than 800% rise against the U.S. dollar earlier this year. Since then, the altcoin has dropped 33% against the dollar.

In terms of what has caused the Bitcoin price to move back in a positive direction this year, theories have ranged from manipulation via the Tether stablecoin, normal activity by a store of value asset, and some indirect help from Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency project.

Additionally, another report from Delphi Digital earlier in the year pointed to a bottoming out of the Bitcoin price based on blockchain analysis.

“[With] our first research piece that we wrote on Bitcoin, we predicted it would go to $5,000, and when it was at $100 everyone thought that was totally nuts. But these numbers in two or three years, people look back and go, ‘Oh yeah, that makes sense.’” Morehead later added during his interview with Shin.

I’m a writer who has been following Bitcoin since 2011. I’ve worked all over the Bitcoin media space

Source: Pantera CEO: $42,000 Bitcoin Price By The End Of 2019 ‘A Good Shot’

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Financial Advisory Firm Says Past Market Trends Point to Bitcoin at $20,000 by 2021

Financial advisory firm Canaccord Genuity has predicted that bitcoin (BTC) could hit $20,000 by 2021 based on retrospective projections in an analysis published on May 9.

This prediction is based on a close similarity between the four-year price cycles of bitcoin during the 2011–2015 and 2015–2019 ranges, as shown in the following graph:

Bitcoin price cycles. Source: Canaccord Genuity

Canaccord Genuity points to the bitcoin mining rewards schedule as a possible cause for these four-year price cycles, since the reward drop — which decreases by 50% for every 210,000 blocks mined — has so-far occurred about once every four years. However, the report cautions:

“As always, we caveat this observation with the obvious — this is simply pattern recognition and not reliable fundamental analysis.”

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham commented on cryptocurrency prices at the beginning of 2018, saying that the upswing in regulatory enforcement would likely have a major impact on the crypto market via dislocation (therefore making it hard for crypto assets to be accurately priced).

Earlier this week, Galaxy Digital Founder and CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that the price of bitcoin would exceed $20,000 by the end of 2020. Novogratz did not provide a specific rationale for his conviction, but did note that bitcoin is in a bull market and is outperforming the price growth of other cryptocurrencies.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at $6,404.55 and is trending up by 4.89% on the day, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Source: Financial Advisory Firm Says Past Market Trends Point to Bitcoin at $20,000 by 2021

7 Reasons Bitcoin Price Will Smash Record Highs in 2020: Tom Lee

Bitcoin permabull and Fundstrat Global co-founder, Tom Lee says the worst is over for bitcoin.

In an interview with CNBC, Lee said the bitcoin price will likely see a new all-time high in 2020, eclipsing the previous $20,000 mark. Lee is famous for inflated bitcoin price predictions, but he backed up the latest forecast with seven key indicators.

1. The bitcoin halving is coming

Every four years, the bitcoin block reward is cut in half to maintain the strict 21 million supply. It gives bitcoin an artificial scarcity and inherent value.

bitcoin halving

The next bitcoin halving takes place in 390 days. Historically, the bitcoin price starts climbing a year before.

The next bitcoin “halving” is scheduled to take place on May 23rd 2020. Historically, the bitcoin price has begun to climb a year before the halving takes place. Tom Lee predicts the shrinking supply and upcoming halving will add fuel to the bitcoin rally.

2. Trading volumes back near record highs

As CCN previously reported, bitcoin trading volumes are back near record highs. Lee points to a key moment in January 2019 when year-on-year trading volumes turned positive

3. Bitcoin smashes past its 200 day moving average

Earlier in the month, bitcoin closed above its 200 day moving average in a technically strong bullish sign. The last time it happened was October 2015 and bitcoin went on to kickstart a two-year bull-run.

4. Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index turns positive

The bitcoin misery index (BMI) measures investor sentiment using a composite of bitcoin volatility, price, and trading activity. In April it hit its highest point since mid-2016.

Lee sees this as a sign that a bull market is forming since a high reading only occurs during bull markets. However, he also acknowledged that bitcoin famously took a 25 percent fall last time the BMI hit this point.

 

5. 60% – 70% increase in bitcoin OTC trading

According to a Fundstrat survey, institutional investors are pouring into bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) markets. OTC markets exist outside the main reported exchanges and reportedly account for half of all bitcoin trading volume.

Lee claims OTC trading activity is up 60% – 70% which is a sure sign that “big money” is coming to crypto. As he explains, OTC markets are:

“Really important in terms of how institutional investors trade crypto.”

6. Consensus that the “bottom is in”

Lee points to a handful of “original” bitcoin bulls who believe we have seen the lowest prices in this bitcoin rout. He repeatedly claims that bitcoin whales, who pulled money out of the market in early 2018 are now beginning to put their money back into bitcoin.

7. Bitcoin’s golden cross

Lastly, Lee points to the “golden cross” technical indicator. The golden cross is another hugely positive indicator that traditionally confirms a bullish breakout.

Bitcoin price will shatter its all-time-high of $20,000 in 2020, according to Tom Lee. | Source: Shutterstock

7 Reasons Bitcoin Price Will Smash Record Highs in 2020: Perma-Bull Tom Lee

By CCN.com: Bitcoin permabull and Fundstrat Global co-founder, Tom Lee says the worst is over for bitcoin.

In an interview with CNBC, Lee said the bitcoin price will likely see a new all-time high in 2020, eclipsing the previous $20,000 mark. Lee is famous for inflated bitcoin price predictions, but he backed up the latest forecast with seven key indicators.

1. The bitcoin halving is coming

Every four years, the bitcoin block reward is cut in half to maintain the strict 21 million supply. It gives bitcoin an artificial scarcity and inherent value.

bitcoin halving

The next bitcoin halving takes place in 390 days. Historically, the bitcoin price starts climbing a year before.

The next bitcoin “halving” is scheduled to take place on May 23rd 2020. Historically, the bitcoin price has begun to climb a year before the halving takes place. Tom Lee predicts the shrinking supply and upcoming halving will add fuel to the bitcoin rally.

2. Trading volumes back near record highs

As CCN previously reported, bitcoin trading volumes are back near record highs. Lee points to a key moment in January 2019 when year-on-year trading volumes turned positive.

Lee cites increased bitcoin adoption in Venezuela and Turkey for the increasing volume:

“Just taking those two countries, they’re close to 30% of the increase in on-chain activity, so it’s meaningful. “People are saying, ‘Look, I don’t trust using these local currencies. I don’t trust the banks. I’m going to start using bitcoin.’ And that’s what’s causing on-chain volume to really take off.”

3. Bitcoin smashes past its 200 day moving average

Earlier in the month, bitcoin closed above its 200 day moving average in a technically strong bullish sign. The last time it happened was October 2015 and bitcoin went on to kickstart a two-year bull-run.

4. Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index turns positive

The bitcoin misery index (BMI) measures investor sentiment using a composite of bitcoin volatility, price, and trading activity. In April it hit its highest point since mid-2016.

Lee sees this as a sign that a bull market is forming since a high reading only occurs during bull markets. However, he also acknowledged that bitcoin famously took a 25 percent fall last time the BMI hit this point.

5. 60% – 70% increase in bitcoin OTC trading

According to a Fundstrat survey, institutional investors are pouring into bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) markets. OTC markets exist outside the main reported exchanges and reportedly account for half of all bitcoin trading volume.

Lee claims OTC trading activity is up 60% – 70% which is a sure sign that “big money” is coming to crypto. As he explains, OTC markets are:

“Really important in terms of how institutional investors trade crypto.”

6. Consensus that the “bottom is in”

Lee points to a handful of “original” bitcoin bulls who believe we have seen the lowest prices in this bitcoin rout. He repeatedly claims that bitcoin whales, who pulled money out of the market in early 2018 are now beginning to put their money back into bitcoin.

7. Bitcoin’s golden cross

Lastly, Lee points to the “golden cross” technical indicator. The golden cross is another hugely positive indicator that traditionally confirms a bullish breakout.

Tom Lee polled his Twitter followers, 43 percent of whom believed the golden cross was a good sign.

Bitcoin to $25,000?

Tom Lee has long-held a positive view of bitcoin’s price but his forecasts aren’t always accurate. He predicted bitcoin would end 2018 at $25,000, a call that fell significantly short. Let’s see if this latest bullish prediction is more accurate.

Source: 7 Reasons Bitcoin Price Will Smash Record Highs in 2020: Tom Lee

The bitcoin price rise

The bitcoin price rise comes as bitcoin daily trading volume tops $11 billion, the most seen in a 24-hour period since last April, when the bitcoin price was trading at over $8,000.Meanwhile, the price of ethereum, Ripple’s XRP, litecoin, and bitcoin.. https://www.pivot.one/share/post/5c8cc1b51d57e701c784a3e5?uid=5bd49f297d5fe7538e6111b6&invite_code=JTOJYV

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